January 31st, 2023: Torres, Rotation Depth, Peraza, Volpe, YES

Wednesday is the 24th anniversary of Brian Cashman’s worst trade: Mike Lowell for Mark Johnson, Todd Noel, and Ed Yarnall. The three pitchers combined for 44 MLB innings and -0.4 WAR. Lowell became a four-time All-Star who helped the Marlins beat the Yankees in the 2003 World Series. Yeesh, that was bad. At least the Yankees won the 1999 and 2000 World Series in the immediate aftermath. Now let’s get to today’s post as Nestor Cortes shows off his custom World Baseball Classic glove (pretty good sign he’ll be on USA’s final roster, I’d say).

1. Gleyber signs, Wilkerson hired. The Yankees made two minor personnel moves in recent days, so let’s cover them real quick.

Torres signs for 2023

As expected, the Yankees and Gleyber Torres agreed to a one-year contract for 2023 and avoided arbitration. It’s a $9.95M deal, according to Mark Feinsand. That is exactly the midpoint of their $9.7M and $10.2M filing numbers. Thankfully they got his wrapped up in a timely fashion and not the morning of their arbitration hearing, like Aaron Judge last year. Gleyber will be a free agent after 2024.

Torres was the Yankees’ last unsigned arbitration-eligible player and he came in a bit above his $9.8M MLBTR salary projection. Payroll is hovering around the $293M fourth luxury tax penalty tier, though the Yankees have already incurred all the non-monetary penalties, so going over $293M just means a higher tax rate on the overage. Not much else to say here. Glad Gleyber is under contract and the Yankees avoided an arbitration hearing for the sixth straight year.

Yankees hire Wilkerson

Here’s someone I haven’t thought about in a while. The Yankees have hired 2002 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up and MVP Baseball 2005 legend Brad Wilkerson as an assistant hitting coach, the team announced. He replaces Hensley Meulens, who left to take over as the Rockies’ primary hitting coach back in November. This is the only change to the coaching staff this offseason.

“My future role with the Yankees is just being there for the hitters,” Wilkerson told Bryan Hoch. “It’s talking to them about baseball, about situational hitting and decisions, when they’re going to swing and why they’re going to swing. It’s just seeing the baseball and getting these guys right, moreso mentally than physically, in a lot of ways. It’s just making sure their minds are clear and prepared each and every night.”

Wilkerson, 45, was the No. 33 pick in the 1998 draft and he played in the big leagues from 2001-08, most notably hitting .263/.375/.478 (120 wRC+) with the Expos from 2002-04. He was traded to the Rangers as part of the Alfonso Soriano deal in Dec. 2005. A left-handed hitter with 447 career games in left field? Hmmm. HMMM.

Anyway, Wilkerson spent the last few years as an assistant coach and recruiting coordinator at Jacksonville University. Before that he coached with USA Baseball. Wilkerson is the third college coach to jump directly to the big leagues in the last five years, joining former Twins pitching coach Wes Johnson (he left Minnesota last year to get a big raise from LSU) and Tigers pitching coach Chris Fetter.

“It was a tough decision for me, just with the timing of the whole thing (two weeks before the college season begins),” Wilkerson told Hoch. “But at the end of the day, the opportunity I have in front of me to get back to the big leagues and work with these guys – with every resource in the world to try to win – it’s just very intriguing to me. The type of competitors, the types of guys that I want to be around, it was a no-brainer for me.”

Primary hitting coach Dillon Lawson and assistant hitting coach Casey Dykes are analytics guys who did not play above college. Wilkerson fills the “coach who played in the big leagues” role Meulens and (briefly) before him Eric Chavez filled. With Gleyber signed and Wilkerson hired, the Yankees have handled all their looming personnel business before camp. Onward.

2. The last piece of the puzzle for Torres. Barring a move(s) between now and Opening Day, the Yankees will begin 2023 with the same lineup that sputtered in the second half last year and into the postseason. They’ll have a full year of Harrison Bader and possibly (hopefully) a new shortstop, and that’s really it. The rest of the offense will be the same.

A wretched August put a damper on Gleyber Torres’ season but he was very good overall, hitting .257/.310/.451 (115 wRC+) with 24 home runs. He ranked seventh among all middle infielders in homers and 12th among qualified middle infielders in wRC+. Torres was not the bona fide star he was from 2018-19, but he was comfortably above average at his position.

Gleyber slashed .255/.337/.366 (97 wRC+) with only 12 homers from 2020-21 and I was very discouraged, mostly because his contact quality went in the tank. Torres produced very little hard contact in 2021. His hard-hit ability didn’t just return in 2022, it was the best he’s shown in his career. Here are his 2021-22 numbers:

Among the 258 players with at least 400 plate appearances in both 2021 and 2022, Gleyber had the largest increase in average exit velocity and barrel rate, and the 11th largest increase in hard-hit rate. His 22.6% strikeout rate last year was his highest since his rookie year, but it was also almost exactly league average (22.4%), so the increase in hard contact didn’t come with an untenable increase in whiffs.

Torres turned 26 last month and is entering what should be his peak years. Aaron Judge was in his second full MLB season when he was Gleyber’s age. Francisco Lindor was a year away from being traded. Marcus Semien was a career .246/.302/.412 (96 wRC+) hitter entering his age 26 season. Dansby Swanson was even worse: .245/.318/.385 (80 wRC+). Torres has been around a while now but is still a baseball baby, relatively speaking.

The combination of prime age and career best contact quality are reasons to believe Torres is heading maybe not for a breakout season (he’s had one of those already, no?), but a year in which he takes his game to another level. I mean, it’s not crazy to suggest a talented young player coming off a productive year is poised to get better at age 26, right?

For Gleyber, the final piece of the puzzle is the outer half of the plate. As productive as he was last season, he did most of his damage on pitches middle-in. Here is his wOBA zone profile:

Middle-in, Torres was better than the average hitter. That’s what the red tells us. But on the outer third, he was among the league’s weakest hitters. He did very little damage on pitches in that part of the zone and, not surprisingly, opponents picked up on it: 49.3% of the pitches Gleyber saw last season were on the outer third of the plate or off the plate away.

Generally speaking, hitters pull inside pitches and punch outside pitches to the opposite field. Torres is adept at inside-outing the ball though (remember this?), so much so that he posted the lowest pull rate (36.7%) and highest oppo rate (29.4%) of his career in 2022, and was more productive to the opposite field (213 wRC+) than the pull field (164 wRC+). Gleyber still used the entire field – and used it well – despite having issues with pitches on the outer third.

Getting to the next level involves finding a happy medium, one in which Torres punishes middle-in pitches while also covering the outer third. That happy medium exists. We saw it from 2018-19. Gleyber was productive in all parts of the strike zone those two years. Here is his 2018-19 wOBA zone profile. Plenty of red here:

The rocket ball helped Torres sock 38 homers in 2019, a total he’s unlikely to reach again, though the rocket ball is baked into the league average. It’s not a Yankee Stadium thing either. Torres hit seven home runs in Yankee Stadium on pitches in the outer third of the zone from 2018-19, and only four went to right field. The short porch helped those two years, sure, but not that much.

The ideal version of Gleyber marries his 2022 hard-hit ability with his 2018-19 plate coverage, and that’s not easy. It requires a change in approach and maybe change in swing too. It might not be possible to hit the ball as hard as Torres did last year and cover the outer third like he did earlier in his career. If he can figure out a way to do it though, his career will take off.

Torres is a frustrating player and I get it. He came up as a top prospect (compare his prospect scouting reports to Anthony Volpe’s), produced at a high level immediately, then regressed for two years. Throw in the shortstop fiasco, getting benched for not running out a grounder last year, and general fan fatigue (he’s not the shiny new toy anymore), and a lot of people are ready to turn the page. We’ve seen him fail, so it’s time to move on. I get it.

That all said, Torres is a just turned 26-year-old middle infielder with three 24+ homer seasons and three +3 WAR seasons coming off a year in which he hit the ball harder than ever. Put this version of Gleyber on another team and we’d clamor for the Yankees to trade for him given the growth potential, and what should be peak years on the horizon. I mean, we’ve spent the last few weeks talking about Max Kepler and Jurickson Profar, and what are they if not some other team’s older, crappier version of Torres?

I don’t know whether Gleyber can make the adjustment to handle pitches on the outer third. He’s handled those pitches before, which is encouraging, but it doesn’t mean he’ll handle them again. Making that adjustment and finding a way to cover the entire plate without sacrificing last year’s contact quality is the last step toward a dominant offensive season. Torres is the cusp, but that last step is often the biggest and most challenging.

3. The next wave of pitching depth. All things considered, the Yankees were quite fortunate with starting pitcher health last season. Luis Severino missed a bit more than two months with a lat injury, Nestor Cortes missed three weeks with a groin issue, and Frankie Montas had shoulder trouble in September. Otherwise there was never a point the Yankees had to scramble for starting pitching. Here is how their starts were distributed:

1. Gerrit Cole: 33
2. Jameson Taillon: 32
3. Nestor Cortes: 28
4. Jordan Montgomery: 21
5. Luis Severino: 19
6. Domingo Germán: 14
7. Frankie Montas: 8
8. Clarke Schmidt: 3
9. JP Sears: 2
t-10. Chi Chi González: 1
t-10. Luis Gil: 1

The Yankees got 130 starts from the five members of their Opening Day rotation, and it’s 138 if you consider Montas and Montgomery one rotation “spot” since one was acquired to replace the other. Sears and Gil made spot starts that were necessitated by doubleheaders. Schmidt made a spot start because Severino went on the COVID list for a day. González started Game 158, when the Yankees were resting their regulars and lining up their postseason rotation.

Go back one year to 2021, and the Yankees used Lucas Luetge (once), Wandy Peralta (once), and Nick Nelson (twice) as openers, gave Asher Wojciechowski a start in July (rather than late in the season like Chi Chi), moved Mike King into the rotation for a spell in May, gave Deivi García two starts, and summoned Gil during a COVID outbreak. That was a hectic year for the rotation. By comparison, 2022 was smooth sailing.

You hope your starters stay healthy but understand that is unlikely to be the case. Injuries come with the territory, and in Severino and Carlos Rodón, the Yankees have two starters with a long history of arm injuries. Germán and Schmidt could be included there as well, and Montas is already hurt. This is the current rotation depth chart:

1. RHP Gerrit Cole
2. LHP Carlos Rodón
3. RHP Luis Severino
4. LHP Nestor Cortes
5. RHP Frankie Montas (will miss the start of the season)
6. RHP Domingo Germán
7. RHP Clarke Schmidt

Pretty good! The Yankees have baseball’s highest projected starting pitcher WAR and are the only team with five starters projected for at least +1.9 WAR, and that’s with Montas hurt. “On paper, certainly it’s the best rotation since I’ve been here. The potential is there for them to be really special,” Aaron Boone said during a radio interview earlier this month (via Bryan Hoch).

The projections like the rotation. The projections are ultimately meaningless though, and at some point the Yankees will have to dip into their rotation depth and give their seventh or eighth starter the ball. It’s inevitable during the long 162-game season. You hope you can do it as neatly as the 2022 Yankees, but it’s unlikely. Last season went very well, rotation-wise.

The Yankees shipped out Sears, Ken Waldichuk, and Hayden Wesneski at the trade deadline last year. That’s three Triple-A guys who could’ve been next up on the rotation depth chart. So who’s next in line now? Who are the young guys who could sneak up and be a factor like Gil in 2021? Let’s break down the rotation depth chart as Spring Training approaches.

Immediate help

Beyond Germán and Schmidt, it’s RHP Jhony Brito and LHP Matt Krook, though indications are the Yankees will use Krook as a reliever, so I’m not sure he’s really rotation depth. Both are on the 40-man roster though and they’ve had Triple-A success. Those are the guys at the front of the call up line: 40-man roster players who’ve done well at the highest minor league level.

• Brito ZiPS: 4.20 ERA (98 ERA+) and 4.30 FIP
• Krook ZiPS: 4.49 ERA (92 ERA+) and 4.45 FIP

Having a projected 98 ERA+ guy in the eighth spot on your rotation depth chart is pretty good, but of course Brito has yet to make his MLB debut, and you never really know what you have until he’s out there. Brito’s 18.5% strikeout rate and 11.7% swinging strike rate in Triple-A last season doesn’t exactly jump off the page (in a good way), so who really knows.

Despite the lack of whiffs, I see Brito as this year’s Sears. He can come up and get you through the order twice and competently, but you probably don’t want to be in a position where you have to give him the ball every fifth day for an extended stretch. Krook walks so many batters (12.1% in Triple-A in 2022) that I don’t think you can trust him as a starter at the next level. The Yankees seem to agree given the bullpen talk this winter.

RHP Randy Vasquez is the best prospect among Triple-A bound 40-man roster pitchers, though he has yet to actually pitch in Triple-A, putting him behind Brito on the depth chart. Vasquez is not MLB-ready, though if need be, he might be able to come up and out-stuff hitters the way Gil did in 2021. Ideally Vasquez is allowed to develop in Triple-A at his own pace.

What about Deivi?

What about him? García has not been anything more than an emergency call up candidate since the middle of 2021. If the Yankees are in a bind and things line up in such a way that García is the only available option (e.g. Brito started two days ago and is unavailable), then the Yankees can call him up. Otherwise the 6.87 ERA (6.32 FIP) in 154.2 minor league innings the last few years put Deivi toward the end of the call up line.

(Still no word on whether García has a fourth minor league option. It is ultimately MLB’s call and apparently the league is willing to be a bit more forgiving with players who burned an option year during the 60-game pandemic season. We’ll find out eventually.)

Emerging options

I wrote about 44 different prospects last spring (Top 30, Not Top 30, Fallen Prospects, Prospects To Know) and somehow none of them were RHP Will Warren. I really dropped the ball there. Warren had a lot of buzz heading into Spring Training and delivered on it last summer, and was my Minor League Breakout Player of the Year. My bad, folks.

The Yankees like Warren and could have him open the season in Triple-A, though I think he’ll go back to Double-A for a few weeks. His 2022 was a lot like Waldichuk’s 2021. He blew away High-A hitters, the Yankees quickly promoted him, then Double-A hitters were like hold on, this isn’t as easy as you made it look. Waldichuk started 2022 back at Double-A and then moved up to Triple-A a few weeks into the season. I think Warren will be on the same path this year.

That doesn’t mean Warren won’t be a call up option at some point in 2023. Just that it’s unlikely to be early in the season, especially since he doesn’t have to be added to the 40-man roster until after 2024. If he’s the best man for the job, call him up, but there are roster ramifications. Once Warren’s on the 40-man, he stays on. Someone like RHP Ryan Weber can be dropped with no real worry. I see Warren as a second half call up candidate at the earliest.

RHP Clayton Beeter has spent a season and a month in Double-A and should open the year in Triple-A. All signs point to him being a reliever given his lack of control (13.2% walks in 2022), but the Yankees are sticking with him as a starter for the time being. Beeter might ultimately be one of those guys who carves out a 10-year career as a quality reliever, and when future generations look at his Baseball Reference page, they’ll say “huh, he started five games as a rookie” (kinda like Jonathan Loáisiga).

Beeter is similar to Vasquez as an unfinished product who might be able to get by on pure stuff should the Yankees call him up, though Vasquez is on the 40-man roster and Beeter isn’t, so we can assume Vasquez is higher on the depth chart. I think Beeter’s a “we don’t want to call him up yet but we will if we have to” type, at least early in the season.

I’m not sure what to make of RHP Matt Sauer, whose stuff has gotten better as he's gotten further away from Tommy John surgery. He made four Double-A starts to close out last year, including a 17-strikeout game (video), so he’ll head back there to begin 2023. That no team took him in the Rule 5 Draft suggests he’s not MLB-ready. What about July or August though? Sauer could be a more realistic option then.

RHP Yoendrys Gómez also finished last season with four starts at Double-A, though his stuff was down following his non-Tommy John elbow surgery. Down enough that’s an emergency call up option and nothing more despite being on the 40-man roster. This is a situation where the Yankees have enough guys ahead of Gómez that they can let him develop at his own pace, and not rush him to the Bronx when an arm is needed.

Among this group of Double-A pitchers who figure to work their way up to Triple-A later this year, I’m comfortable saying Beeter is most likely to be called up to make a spot start early in 2022, with Warren not too far behind him, and Sauer and Gómez a good deal behind them both. This is the wave of pitching depth behind the wave currently in Triple-A.

Journeyman types

There’s nothing wrong with giving González or Wojciechowski types a spot start now and then, or calling up Weber to be a bulk guy behind an opener. The problem comes when you have to put them in the rotation full-time for a few weeks, and they’re taking the ball every fifth day. Think Sidney Ponson back in the day, or Dustin Moseley or Sergio Mitre.

Weber and LHP Tanner Tully are this year’s non-roster journeymen who are more likely to be paired with an opener than given starts outright. Remember, players can only be sent down five times in a season now. Sometimes it’s better to bite the bullet and give a journeyman a spot start than burn one of a prospect’s five send-downs. I reckon we’ll see Weber and Tully once or twice or thrice this summer. Hopefully it’s not more than that.

Sleepers

RHP Sean Boyle will pitch in the big leagues. I don’t know when or with what team, but he’s a big leaguer. He’s a Weber type as a low arm slot sinker/slider guy with below-average velocity, but he gets outs wherever the Yankees send him, and eventually that will earn you a look in the show. He’s penciled into the Triple-A rotation and is a sneaky call up candidate.

(Based on what we know right now, the Yankees had an awful 2018 draft. Boyle, that year’s 25th rounder, might wind up leading that draft class in career WAR now that the Red Sox designated Franklin German for assignment earlier this week (German was the sweetener in the Adam Ottavino trade). I guess we could count Austin Wells, though the Yankees drafted him as a high schooler that year and he did not sign.)

RHP Mitch Spence is similar to Boyle in that he’ll pitch in the big leagues at some point, though he has less Triple-A experience, and it’s more of a fastball/slider bullpen profile even if he’s only started as a pro. Spence was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft, but sticking on an MLB roster all year is different from coming up to make occasional spot starts. He’s a depth option.

The Yankees have not called a player up to the big leagues the year after drafting him since Jacob Lindgren in 2015, and he only made seven relief appearances that year. Before Lindgren it was Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain in 2007. RHP Drew Thorpe, last year’s second rounder, is as good a bet to do it as anyone the Yankees have drafted since Kennedy and Joba. Consider:

• He’s a command guy with a great changeup, so he has a go-to pitch and strike-throwing ability. That’s a common skill set among guys who climb the ladder rapidly.
• Thorpe was a three-year starter in college and has multiple 100+ inning seasons under his belt, so he’s built up pretty well for a recently drafted pitcher.
• He’ll start in High-A and should manhandle hitters at that level. Thorpe will get to Double-A quickly, and getting to Triple-A by July or August is doable.

I don’t think the Yankees will be that aggressive with Thorpe and, frankly, they don’t need to be. Beeter, Brito, Vasquez, and Warren are available as call up options in whatever order, plus there are the Webers and Tullys. But, if you were going to design a pitching prospect who could shoot up the ladder in a hurry, he’d look a lot like Thorpe. He’s a deep call up sleeper.

The extended depth chart

Excluding the 60-game pandemic season, the Yankees have used at least 11 different starting pitchers every year since 2016, and they have not used as few as eight different starters since 2010. You hope to get 130+ starts out of your top five guys like the Yankees did last season, but you know it’s unlikely to happen. Such is life in this sport.

Based on everything we just talked out, I’d line up the extended rotation depth chart like this:

The Big Leaguers
1. RHP Gerrit Cole
2. LHP Carlos Rodón
3. RHP Luis Severino
4. LHP Nestor Cortes
5. RHP Frankie Montas (injured)
6. RHP Domingo Germán
7. RHP Clarke Schmidt

Immediate Call Up Candidates
8. RHP Jhony Brito
9. RHP Randy Vasquez
10. RHP Ryan Weber/LHP Tanner Tully (the “who cares if they DFA him?” journeyman)
11. RHP Sean Boyle

Midseason Call Up Candidates
12. RHP Clayton Beeter
13. RHP Will Warren
14. RHP Mitch Spence
15. RHP Matt Sauer
16. RHP Yoendrys Gómez

Long Shots
17. LHP Matt Krook (long shot to make starts given the reliever talk)
18. RHP Deivi García
19. RHP Drew Thorpe

There is a point, I’d say somewhere around No. 9 or 10 on that depth chart, where the Yankees would begin to explore trade options. If it gets to the point where the Yankees are seriously considering Sauer or Gómez for even one spot start, it ain’t good. A lot of guys ahead of them would have to be hurt or underperforming.

I’d feel a bit more comfortable if, say, Sears or Wesneski was in the No. 9 spot instead of Brito, but that isn’t the case, and the Yankees have earned the benefit of the doubt with pitching. They have gotten pretty good at developing capable MLB arms. If injuries pile up and they run short on starters, they’re screwed. But to cover for one or two short-term injuries, I suspect they’ll figure it out like they did last year, in a way that doesn’t significantly harm the team.

4. Peraza, Volpe, and a PPI pick. As the Yankees tell it, they will hold a shortstop competition in Spring Training, and the more I think about it, the more I wonder why Isiah Kiner-Falefa is even part of the discussion. He found himself on the bench in the most important games last postseason and he was acquired to be a stopgap. The kids – or at least one kid – are ready for the show, so it’s time for the stopgap to step aside. Enough about Kiner-Falefa though.

My sense is the Yankees regret not giving Oswald Peraza more playing time last year and they want him to be their starting shortstop this season, and will give him every opportunity to win the job. Unless we’re talking about the last guy in the bullpen or someone to replace an injured player for a few weeks, the Yankees usually don’t value Spring Training performance much. They go into camp with a roster plan and stick to it unless something forces their hand.

Beyond the “he’s likely the best MLB-ready shortstop in the organization” thing, there’s another reason to give the shortstop job to Peraza: he could earn the Yankees a draft pick. Long story short, the new Collective Bargaining Agreement gives an additional draft pick to teams that carry top prospects on their MLB roster all year, and they receive awards votes. The Mariners received the No. 29 pick* for AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodríguez, for example.

* These picks come after the first round, but because the Mets and Dodgers exceeded the third luxury tax threshold last year, their first round picks moved back 10 spots and into the second round. There are 28 first round picks this summer, so the Rodríguez pick is No. 29.

Players must meet a bunch of criteria to be eligible for one of these additional draft picks, which are called Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) picks. Evan Drellich (subs. req’d) has the details:

Teams who promote players in time to receive a full year of service, which is 172 days — so, Opening Day, or very shortly thereafter — have a chance at additional picks in the amateur draft … Players with 60 days of service or less, who have rookie eligibility and are included in two or more of the preseason top-100 prospect lists put out by Baseball America, MLB.com or ESPN, are eligible. If, in the time before they hit salary arbitration, those players go on to win Rookie of the Year, finish top three in MVP voting or top three in Cy Young voting, their team gets an amateur draft pick following the end of the first round. A player can only create one new amateur draft pick for his team over time.

Fewer than 60 days of service time? Check. Peraza is at 35 days. Rookie-eligibility? Check. He has fewer than 45 days on the active MLB roster (i.e. not counting injured list time) and is at 49 at-bats, well below the 130 at-bat rookie threshold. On at least two 2023 top 100 prospects lists? Also check. Peraza is No. 52 on MLB.com’s and No. 62 on Baseball America’s, so ESPN’s not yet released list is irrelevant.

As for a full year of service time this season and the required Rookie of the Year and/or MVP voting, that remains to be seen. The Yankees control the former, they decide whether Peraza stays on the MLB roster all season, but only kinda. Peraza has to perform to stay on the roster. He wouldn’t be the first touted prospect to win an Opening Day job, struggle, go back to Triple-A for a reset, then return as the guy he’s expected to be.

If Peraza struggles so much that he has to go back to Triple-A, then losing out on a PPI pick will be the least of the Yankees’ concerns. It’s also far from a sure thing Peraza will receive Rookie of the Year consideration, let alone win the award to return the PPI pick. ZiPS projects him as a .243/.300/.385 (90 OPS+) hitter and +2.1 WAR player in 2023. His 80th percentile projection is .268/.325/.437 (108 OPS+) and +3.3 WAR. This isn’t a top of the line prospect like Rodríguez and Adley Rutschman.

Which brings me to Anthony Volpe, who is a top of the line prospect like Rodríguez and Rutschman. Volpe is No. 5 on MLB.com’s top 100 list and No. 14 on Baseball America’s, so he meets the top 100 list criteria, and he’s never been in the big leagues, so he satisfies all the service time and rookie-eligibility rules too. Put him on the Opening Day roster and Volpe will be eligible to earn the Yankees a PPI pick.

The question is would the Yankees put Volpe on the Opening Day roster so he gets a full year of service time and is eligible for a PPI pick, either by winning Rookie of the Year in 2023 or finishing top three in the MVP voting at some point from 2023-25? They say they are, but saying and doing are different things. This is the same team that called up Peraza only to sit him on the bench.

“(Volpe) hasn’t had a lot of Triple-A time, but you never know,” Aaron Boone said during a YES Network interview earlier this month (video). “He could still kick the door in and force the onus on us. We’ll have to see how it plays out and make a decision there.”

ZiPS projects Volpe as a .234/.318/.407 (100 OPS+) hitter and +3.1 WAR player in 2023. His 80th percentile projection is .262/.341/.463 (120 OPS+) and +4.4 WAR. Do something along those lines while playing the middle infield and yeah, you’ll get Rookie of the Year love. Gunnar Henderson and others will have a say in that, but sure, Volpe winning Rookie of the Year is possible. And if not, there’s MVP voting in the future.

Kicking the can down the road a year is possible. The Orioles called up Henderson late last year, ditto the Diamondbacks and Corbin Carroll, and they did it in such a way that preserved their PPI eligibility this year. The Yankees could summon Volpe late this year (Sept. 1st or thereabouts) and play him every single game, and still retain PPI eligibility in 2024. Of course, Volpe might be MLB-ready – and needed in the Bronx – long before Sept. 1st. Therein lies the conundrum.

Adding draft picks is never a bad thing, though in the Yankees’ case, they could really use one because they surrendered two 2023 picks to sign Carlos Rodón, and will have their 2024 first rounder moved back 10 spots given their luxury tax status. Also, they’ll only receive a compensation pick after the fourth round for losing a qualified free agent (Luis Severino?). One PPI pick will only help so much, but it will help, and if you’re in position to try to get one, do it.

That all said, I see a PPI pick as something that would be nice to run into one of these years, but it shouldn’t factor into your decision-making. If the Yankees believe Volpe needs more time in Triple-A, then send him to Triple-A and prioritize his development. If they decide he’s ready in, say, June, then call him up and forget about PPI pick eligibility in 2024. With Peraza, if he’s the Opening Day shortstop but pays his way into a demotion, then so be it. He’s probably not gonna bring back a PPI pick anyway in that case.

There is a chance, likely a small one but still a chance, Peraza can net the Yankees a PPI pick should they give him the keys to shortstop on Opening Day. Volpe’s situation is a bit trickier because he’s probably going to be MLB-ready at a point where calling him up won’t make him eligible for a PPI pick for service time reasons. I’m not expecting a PPI pick and I don’t think the Yankees will make roster decisions based on it, but if they wiggle their way into one, it would be swell.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. I think the Yankees have a City Connect uniform coming. Chris Creamer, the foremost authority on uniform news, notes the Yankees are among the 16 teams yet to reveal a City Connect uniform and those 16 teams “will be divided up between the 2023 and 2024 seasons.” Hmmm. The Cardinals are the only team to announce a City Connect for 2023 thus far, though these things usually aren’t announced far ahead of time. Several teams have revealed them in-season and debuted them on the field a few days later, so the Yankees could drop them on us at any moment these next two years. Fun! I’ve been clamoring for the Yankees to use an alternate jersey for a while now (navy blue with the top hat logo seems inoffensive enough), so I welcome this City Connect news. Now we await the reveal … Andrew Marchand (subs. req’d) reports the Yankees hope to launch their direct-to-consumer streaming service, which will allow fans to watch the YES Network without a cable or satellite subscription, in time for Opening Day. It will only be available in the Yankees’ home market initially. If you’re out-of-market, you’re stuck with MLB.tv or satellite or whatever. No word on the price yet (NESN’s is $30 per month), but the Yankees hope to have this in place in time for the season-opener. I might finally cut the cord if they launch in time. I pay for thousands of channels and watch maybe 10 regularly? Even 10 feels high … And finally, the YES Network announced their 2023 Grapefruit League broadcast schedule. Here’s the graphic:

That first game will air exclusively on the YES app because of a conflict with the Nets. App-only broadcasts (probably) won’t become a regular thing anytime soon because there will be fewer eyeballs on the app than on television. YES will show 13 of the 33 exhibition games, and plenty others will be available on MLB.tv through the other team’s broadcast. The first Spring Training game is Saturday, Feb. 25th. That is three weeks and four days away.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)