January 27th, 2023: Hall of Fame, Bullpen, WBC, Mailbag

In case you missed it Thursday, I took a stab at predicting this year’s Spring Training non-roster invitees. The official list should be announced sometime next week. Otherwise there’s nothing going on in Yankeeland right now, so today’s post is a few miscellaneous tidbits and mailbag questions. Let’s get to it.

1. Latest news, rumors, and reports. Like I said, there’s not much going on with the Yankees these days. There’s not much going on with any team, really. The Twins, Red Sox, and Royals are trading with each other and that’s about it. Here’s some miscellaneous news and notes.

Rolen voted into Hall of Fame

Earlier this week it was announced the BBWAA has voted Scott Rolen into the Hall of Fame. He was five votes over the 75% threshold and the video of him telling his parents is adorable. Rolen joins Fred McGriff, who was voted in unanimously by the Contemporary Era Committee, in the two-person 2023 Hall of Fame class. Induction weekend is July 21st to 24th. (Todd Helton fell 11 votes short of induction and should get in next year.)

Rolen hit .281/.364/.490 (122 wRC+) in parts of 17 big league seasons, including .287/.380/.532 (134 wRC+) during his peak from 1998-2004, and he was a brilliant defender. He is tenth all-time in WAR among third basemen. Rolen and Chipper Jones are the only third basemen in the Hall of Fame who began their careers within the last 40 years. The position is underrepresented. I’m cool with Rolen getting in. He was a badass player.

Andy Pettitte and Álex Rodríguez are the notable former Yankees on the Hall of Fame ballot, and by notable former Yankees I mean they would go into the Hall of Fame as Yankees. Bobby Abreu and Gary Sheffield were good Yankees too, but they won’t have the interlocking NY on their plaque if they get in. Here’s how Pettitte and A-Rod have fared in the voting (full 2023 voting):

Negligible gain for A-Rod. He still has another eight years on the BBWAA’s ballot and eight years is a long time, but if Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens couldn’t get in despite never serving a performance-enhancing drug suspension, A-Rod has no chance. Bonds and Clemens fared even worse with the Veterans Committee than the BBWAA too. A lot will have to change in the next eight years for A-Rod to get in. Alex made his bed. Now he has to lay in it.

Pettitte kinda sorta maybe has some momentum? If he does, it ain’t much, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he comes in around 15% next year given his voting trend. Pettitte has five years remaining on the BBWAA’s ballot, but it’s not looking good. He needed to make up a decent chunk of ground this year to have his best chance at the Hall of Fame. It ain’t over until his 10 years on the ballot are up, but Pettitte has a big uphill climb ahead of him.

I’m two years away from a Hall of Fame vote and I started to think about this stuff a little more seriously this voting cycle. I mentally had Andruw Jones as a no the last few years because he was done as an everyday player by age 30, but the guy hit over 400 homers and was the best defensive center fielder of his generation. Maybe the best of the last 50 years or so. I'm coming around on him.

As for Pettitte, the Hall of Fame standard for starting pitchers has to change because the game itself is changing. Starters aren’t used the same way they were 20 years ago, when they weren’t used the same way they were 20 years before that. Turn on any game and you might hear a former player in the booth insinuate the game was better in his day. Well, go back to when that guy was playing, and former players in the booth said the game was better in their day. It is the circle of baseball life. In 20 years the YES Network’s Gerrit Cole will say the same thing.

There are 76 starting pitchers in the Hall of Fame and only 18 started their careers after MLB first expanded in 1961, so that’s 58 Hall of Fame starters before expansion and 18 in the 62 years since expansion. It doesn’t add up. Not with how many teams and players are in the game today. Modern starting pitchers are held to too high a standard in my opinion. If you’re a small Hall of Fame person, that’s cool. I’m just saying I believe the standard is unfair and we need to better contextualize players in their era.

Does Pettitte meet what I think the standard for starting pitchers should be? I don’t know. I need to think about it more. He was very good for a very long time, occasionally even great, and that also applies to Mark Buehrle, whose voting percentages have been a bit below Pettitte’s. I'm leaning toward “very good for a very long time” being Hall of Fame worthy. Not everyone needs three Cy Youngs like Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander. Or even one Cy Young, for that matter (see: Mussina, Mike).

Pettitte’s support is strong enough that he should still be on the ballot when I get a vote in two years, and I’ll spend more time thinking about him then. I just think the game has changed so much in my lifetime and the Hall of Fame isn’t changing along with it, or at least it isn’t changing at the same pace. Modern players are being shortchanged and Hall of Fame voters are doing fans and the sport a disservice if they don’t adapt as the game itself changes.

Yankees seeking a lefty reliever

According to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), the Yankees are among the teams with interest in adding a lefty reliever. Wandy Peralta is the lone lefty lock for the bullpen following the Lucas Luetge trade, and Matt Krook is the only other lefty bullpen candidate on the 40-man roster. Nick Ramirez and Tanner Tully are the non-roster lefties with MLB experience.

Andrew Chafin, who I signed as part of my Offseason Plan, is the best available free agent lefty reliever, and he declined a $6.5M player option with the Tigers to hit the market. He wants at least that much and it’s safe to assume he wants multiple years. Here are the best available free agent lefties by projected 2023 WAR:

1. Mike Minor: +0.9 WAR (has started the last five years but has bullpen experience)
2. Andrew Chafin: +0.4 WAR
t-3. Matt Moore, Daniel Norris, and others: +0.1 WAR

I have two thoughts on this. One, I don’t think the Yankees absolutely need another lefty. It’s an eight-man bullpen these days, so you might as well carry two lefties if you can, but a second lefty is not a must have. I say that because Tommy Kahnle and Ron Marinaccio can match up with lefties thanks to their dynamite changeups. Here’s Marinaccio in 2022:

• vs. RHB: .152/.333/.242 (.280 wOBA) with 30.7 K% and 15.9 BB% (88 BF)
• vs. LHB: .146/.247/.232 (.224 wOBA) with 31.2 K% and 10.8 BB% (93 BF)

Kahnle and Marinaccio as right-on-left matchup guys isn’t some far-fetched idea. Aaron Boone used Marinaccio that way last year and Kahnle that way in the past. Kahnle likely needs to earn that responsibility again, but Boone’s shown us he’ll use these two that way. Wandy will be the go-to high leverage lefty. Kahnle and Marinaccio are capable second lefties, so to speak.

"You want to have that balance any way you can find it," Boone told Dan Martin last month. "Sometimes that means what hand you throw with. Other times it’s a guy’s repertoire."

And two, Zack Britton. I’ve beaten the dead horse all offseason and I’m not stopping now. The Yankees want a lefty reliever, and a lefty reliever they know well and share mutual admiration with is out there waiting to be signed. And he’ll likely take a cheap one-year contract too. I’d rather the Yankees pony up for Chafin and get a good, healthy reliever, but I think the chances of a Britton reunion are high. It’ll happen in Spring Training, when the Yankees can easily slide Scott Effross or Luis Gil to the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot.

A second lefty reliever would be nice but I don’t think it’s a necessity because Kahnle and Marinaccio can fill that role in an unorthodox way (I think Krook has a chance to be pretty useful too), and Rosenthal’s report makes it sound like the Yankees want a second lefty but haven’t made it a top priority. If they can drum one up, whether it’s Britton or someone else, great. If not, then I won’t lose sleep over it.

Red Sox designate Barnes

The Red Sox designated righty reliever Matt Barnes for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot for Adam Duvall the other day and my “possible future Yankee” radar went off immediately. Barnes, 32, signed a two-year extension worth $18.75M soon after being named an All-Star in 2021, and he fell apart almost immediately. The numbers:

I figured the Red Sox had a trade already lined up at the time of the DFA, but president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom gave no such indication. Between his salary and the buyout of his 2024 club option, the Red Sox owe Barnes $9.75M in 2023. The money ensures he’ll clear waivers and become a free agent, at which point teams can sign him for the league minimum.

“Obviously a really, really difficult decision. The conversation itself was one of the more difficult ones I’ve had,” Bloom told Matt Vautour. “The DFA process has to play itself out so there’s a limited amount I want to say about it until it does. More than anything, this is a function of where we’re at in the offseason and with our 40-man roster. There were no easy decisions.”

We’ve seen Barnes give up his fair share of backbreaking homers to the Yankees over the years (video) and to be clear, I’m not pounding the table and saying the Yankees should sign him. I don’t want him, really. It just seems like a thing the Yankees would do, and it seems like something Barnes might go for as well. Consider:

• At his best Barnes threw mid-to-upper-90s with great extension on his fastball, and his curveball had close to a 40% whiff rate. That 38.6% strikeout rate in the table isn’t his true talent level, few guys can do that consistently, but it’s strikeout stuff.
• With his 2023 salary already locked in, Barnes is presumably looking ahead to the future, and will join the team he believes can get his career on track. The Yankees have fixed up a few live-armed relievers in recent years. Why not them?
• It would cost no money (just the prorated minimum), so the Yankees could easily cut bait if it doesn’t work. Plus they have a thing for former Red Sox players, partly because they are familiar with a unique and demanding market.
• Barnes grew up in Connecticut and was a Yankees fan (per Pete Abraham), so he’d get to stay close to home. I don’t know how much that matters to him, but it can’t hurt.

There would be a 40-man roster cost to signing any player at this point, but if the Yankees could convince Barnes to wait three weeks until pitchers and catchers report, they could put Effross or Gil on the 60-day injured list and clear a spot that way. Minimal money, easy roster move, player with a chip on his shoulder coming over from a hated rival. This has Yankees written all over it.

I’d say Barnes is some risk (because he could blow games and hurt you in the standings) and moderate reward (the first half of 2021 is the only time he’s truly dominated) more than low risk/high reward, but there is upside, and he’d cost nothing. I’m sure other teams will be in the mix too. This just feels like something up the Yankees’ alley.

Loáisiga, Torres on WBC rosters

World Baseball Classic commitments are rolling in. We know Kyle Higashioka (USA), Nestor Cortes (USA), and Wandy Peralta (Dominican Republic) are on preliminary rosters. Earlier this week it was revealed Jonathan Loáisiga (Nicaragua), Frankie Montas (Dominican Republic), and Gleyber Torres (Venezuela) are also on preliminary rosters. Six Yankees so far.

First things first: Montas is injured and won’t participate in the WBC. And second, these are only preliminary roster commitments. The final rosters will be revealed in a few weeks (Cuba and Japan have announced theirs already). Players are beginning to drop out too (Ronald Acuña, Trey Mancini, Nick Martinez), so that’s another thing to watch. Yankees could decommit or be added as replacements for players who decommit.

Nicaragua is surely begging Loáisiga to play. Venezuela’s other known middle infielders are Jose Altuve, Luis Arraez, Andrés Giménez, and Miguel Rojas. There’s room on the 30-man roster for those four and Gleyber, especially since they’ll need Arraez to play first base (Miguel Cabrera can’t anymore). Torres hoped to be on the 2021 WBC roster before the pandemic. I’m sure he’s eager to do it this time around and won’t pass up the opportunity if called.

We won’t know for sure until the rosters are announced, but it looks like the Yankees will have no more than five players in the WBC: Cortes, Higashioka, Peralta, Loáisiga, and Torres. That’s not too bad (the Mets are sending their entire infield!). Hopefully everyone comes back in one piece.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Nick asks: I was wondering what you think about David Peralta as a LF option. As a 35 year old who has lasted this long into free agency, I can’t imagine he’d be too painful to sign. He’s a lefty and his Statcast page seems promising… the exit velo/hard hit numbers are all 75th percentile or better, and he’s in the 88th percentile for outs above average. Would love to know your thoughts. Thanks!

Assuming the Pirates won’t budge on their Bryan Reynolds asking price, Peralta is my preferred left field target. I’d rather give him a low cost one-year contract than give Jurickson Profar what Scott Boras wants, or trade something of value for Max Kepler or Seth Brown. Peralta slashed .267/.329/.449 (116 wRC+) against righties last year. Here is his Statcast profile:

Peralta’s 90th percentile exit velocity, the number that best correlates to future power production, was a robust 105.4 mph in 2022. That’s above the 103.8 mph league average and on par with Reynolds (105.2 mph), Rhys Hoskins (105.1 mph), and a few other good but not elite bangers. Peralta plays solid defense in left and hits righties. As far as stopgaps go, that works for me.

The downside is Peralta will turn 36 this summer and he didn’t hit after going to the Rays at last year’s trade deadline (.255/.317/.355 and 91 wRC+ with no homers), so he could be aging out as a useful player. Given who else is available though, I think gambling a few million on Peralta is worthwhile. I don’t love him, but I like him more than most of the other guys out there. The Yankees should do better. They could also do worse.

Mike asks: Hey Mike, let's say Cabrera, Peraza and Volpe are all playing important roles in this team by September. With an eye into the future, what's the ideal positional formation for these three? I get the impression Peraza is the best SS but not sure much else. Who profiles best at 3B long-term? Is Cabrera better off roaming or locked into a set spot everyday? Thanks

Oswald Peraza at shortstop and Anthony Volpe at second base would be the optimal alignment. Not because Volpe can’t play short. Peraza’s just the superior defender. Oswaldo Cabrera is the best third base candidate by default, though I like him more as a super utility guy who moves all around and plays 5-6 times a week at different positions. He can play third though, sure.

For better or worse, the Yankees appear ready to roll with Josh Donaldson again in 2023. In a perfect world they would then turn the position over to DJ LeMahieu full-time in 2024, though that will be his age 35 season, and the Yankees may have to reduce his workload to keep him healthy all year. No sure 140-ish games at third is doable for LeMahieu in 2024 and beyond.

Trey Sweeney probably won’t be ready for Opening Day 2024. Maybe Andres Chaparro forces the issue and becomes an option, but I’m not sold on him as an everyday player on a contender. What about Gleyber Torres? He’s under team control through 2024. The Yankees could keep him at second and put Peraza or Volpe at third for a year, then figure it out again in 2025. That’s about it for non-Cabrera internal third base options come 2024.

Barring injury or a collapse in performance, Manny Machado will opt out of his contract after this season. He’d leave five years and $150M on the table and will be roughly the same age Aaron Judge was this offseason, so that will be his contract neighborhood. I can’t see the Yankees doing that. The time to sign Machado was five years ago, when he was 26. Matt Chapman and Gio Urshela will be the other notable free agent third basemen next offseason.

Cabrera at third, Peraza at short, and Volpe at second is the best long-term infield alignment. A better plan would be bringing in a new starting third baseman (or LeMahieu being able to play it full-time) and using Cabrera as a super utility guy. I think Peraza and Volpe are pretty clearly the future on the middle infield. Third base is more up in the air.

Steven asks: Given the need for left-handed bats and the fact that he had almost 250 PA in AA do you see Wells starting at SWB or even at the MLB level by August? He sees so many pitches and hits for power. Shouldn't they be giving him some exposure to left field?

Starting the season with Triple-A Scranton is possible, though I expect Austin Wells to start with Double-A Somerset and then get moved up to Scranton in late May or June. Josh Breaux and Ben Rortvedt will be the Triple-A catching tandem initially, and although Wells performed during his brief time in Double-A, it was only 55 games. Another 50 wouldn’t be the end of the world.

My sense is the Yankees believe in Wells as a catcher – I mean truly believe in him – more than everyone else. The various public scouting reports indicate he has improved behind the plate but is still below-average, and may never be better than that. Baseball Prospectus has minor league catching stats. Here are their run values for Wells:

Catcher defense is difficult to measure and there’s an entire component of it we still can’t quantify (how well they work with pitchers), and that goes double in the minors, where the data is not always complete. Here’s what Yankees minor league defensive coordinator Aaron Gershenfeld told Chris Kirschner (subs. req’d) about Wells earlier this week:

“He’s produced at above-average rates from a receiving standpoint and he’s made significant improvements as a thrower, so holistically you’re looking at a guy who, from a tangible skill set, that has really grown in all three important areas,” Gershenfeld said.

“What we’ve seen so far from Austin as a catcher is really, really encouraging. I think we’ve seen some production on the catching end that certainly forecasts success later on. And we’ve been, we’ve been pretty clear with Austin that we believe he’s a catcher and he wants to be a catcher. And so we’ve kind of been on that path to help him become the very best catcher he can be.”

The bat has always been ahead of the glove and Wells is reaching the point where the Yankees will have to make a decision. Do you prioritize defensive development because he’ll provide the most long-term value as a catcher, or do you let his bat dictate his progress so he can help the win-now MLB team as soon as possible? It’s an either/or. I don’t see a way to do both.

Let the bat dictate his progress and I think Wells could be a big league option as soon as August, and maybe even earlier. I am more willing to tolerate iffy defense to get offense than most, so I’d stick Wells behind the plate, but I’m not sure the Yankees are willing to do that. In that case, you gotta get him in left field soon, right? Alas, the Yankees have not indicated they will do that.

Another factor we must consider is Wells wants to catch. “I want to be an All-Star catcher. I want to be known for not just being able to hit. I want to do both, and I want to do both extremely well. The more that people say I can’t, it definitely fires me up to work harder and be in a better spot each day,” he told Kirschner (subs. req’d). How does Wells react to being taken away from his preferred position? These guys are human beings and they’re competitive. They don’t like being told they can’t do things even if it’s for the best (getting to MLB quicker, in this case).

Wells will benefit from the automated strike zone, which will eliminate pitch-framing as a skill. The earliest we’ll see the automated zone is 2024 though, and that’s only if all goes well at Triple-A this year. If there are any hitches, it’ll probably get pushed back to 2025. The strike zone is too critical to the sport to work the bugs out on the fly in the big leagues. The automated zone won’t help Wells’ call up chances in 2023.

I feel like we’re destined to run into a situation where Wells is mashing in Triple-A and appears to be ready for the challenge of the next level offensively, but the Yankees keep him down so he can improve his glove. We went through this Jesus Montero back in the day, though it later became clear the Yankees didn’t think Montero could catch. They seem to believe Wells can. I hope they prioritize the bat. It’s good and they need the lefty thump.

Robert asks: Is it possible that the Yankees are waiting for a better alternative than Hicks to be acquired before they try to trade him? Rumors are that they've had no interest, but is it possible that they are hanging on to him as a "just in case we don't land a quality left fielder"? Also, how would that affect the trade deadline? All signs point to a LF acquisition at this year's trade deadline if they can't make something happen in the offseason, but as you've stated many times, they can't keep Hicks past the deadline. It feels like they have backed themselves into a corner by not grabbing someone through free agency or swinging a trade.

I don’t think they’re waiting to pick up a replacement first. I think the Yankees would move Aaron Hicks today if the right deal came along, and they would just sign a cheap fill-in left fielder (like David Peralta). Brian Cashman’s recent comments about Hicks being in line to start in left field – “I suspect he will be the guy that emerges because he’s still really talented, and everything’s there. Hopefully we get the Aaron Hicks that we know is in there back as a consistent player for us,” he said during a radio interview (via Bryan Hoch) – weren’t exactly a ringing endorsement. That’s a pretty standard “what am I supposed to say about a guy under contract?” statement. I think the Yankees are proceeding with Hicks as Plan B and nothing more. I think they’ll move him no matter who the alternatives are in left field, and he’ll be gone no later than the trade deadline given his looming 10-and-5 rights.

Ryan asks: With the Bronson Sardinha in the random Yankees ... What if the Yankees took David Wright instead and he developed the same way? Do we trade for A-Rod with Wright knocking on the door? If we don’t trade for A-Rod, who are we signing for 05-16? If we do trade for A-Rod, who are you trading Wright for?

In the Random Yankee: Bronson Sardinha post I noted the Mets took Wright four picks after the Yankees drafted Sardinha. Wright had his breakout season in 2003, when he hit .270/.369/.459 in High-A as a 20-year-old. Baseball America ranked him the No. 21 prospect in the game going into 2004. The Álex Rodríguez trade went down on Feb. 16th, 2004. Wright destroyed Double-A and Triple-A in 2004 (.341/.441/.605) and made his MLB debut that July.

The current Yankees are willing to pass on top free agents to leave a path for their prospects (see: shortstop). That absolutely was not the case in 2004. As good as Wright was – and he was great – I don’t think they would have passed on A-Rod at the time. Remember, A-Rod was only 28, and the Rangers ate so much money that he was a $16M a year player for the Yankees. He was arguably the best player in the game! How could you pass that up?

I think there are three possibilities with Wright. First, he would have been included in the A-Rod trade. I think this would have been the least likely outcome. Wright was too good a prospect. The Yankees gave the Rangers a pool of 5-6 prospects to choose from, and Texas took Joaquin Arias (Robinson Canó was in the pool too). Given the caliber of prospect Arias and Canó were at the time, I think we can assume Wright would not have been in the pool. He was too good.

Second, the Yankees would have included Wright in the Randy Johnson trade. I think this would have been the most likely outcome. Wright was blocked at third base and George Steinbrenner was obsessed with the Big Unit, and after the humiliation of the 2004 ALCS, including Wright in the Johnson trade would’ve been fairly easy. The full trade, as a reminder:

• Yankees get: LHP Randy Johnson
• Diamondbacks get: LHP Brad Halsey, C Dioner Navarro, RHP Javy Vazquez

Navarro was the Yankees’ top prospect at the time and it was a “this is the best we have, take it or leave it” situation. The D’Backs were wretched (51-111 in 2004) and presumably would have pushed for Wright, and I think the Yankees would have relented. He then would have immediately stepped in at third base and taken over as the face of the franchise in Arizona.

And third, the Yankees would have at least tried to move Wright to second base, or maybe even the outfield. He was a very good third baseman and was only 21 at the time. It wouldn’t have been crazy to move Wright over to second base at that point in his career. In an alternate universe somewhere the Yankees draft Wright, trade for A-Rod, move Wright to second, and they have baseball’s best infield for the next eight years or so.

Of course, Robbie Canó was pretty damn good too, and he arrived in May 2005. Could Wright have made the corner outfield work? Would the Yankees have shoehorned him in at first base, where they had a revolving door from 2005-08? That would have been a waste of Wright’s glove, but it would have gotten him and Canó and A-Rod into the lineup.

Just looking at some other notable trades that took place from 2004-05, the Yankees could have dangled Wright for Milton Bradley, Freddy Garcia, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Placido Polanco, or Larry Walker. The 2005 Yankees were very desperate for pitching, making Hudson, Mulder, and Sweaty Freddy more likely targets than Bradley, Polanco, and Walker.

The Yankees could have offered Wright for Miguel Cabrera, though the Marlins didn’t trade him until Dec. 2007, and the Yankees would have had to make a decision on Wright long before that. He probably would have been approaching arbitration-eligibility at that point too. The Marlins don’t like guys who make money. They took prospects and pre-arb players in the Miggy trade.

My guess is the Yankees still would have gone through with the A-Rod trade, and then traded Wright as part of the Randy Johnson package. The Yankees and MLB teams in general did not clutch prospects tightly the way they do now (e.g. Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano), and I think Wright would’ve gone to Arizona in the 2004 ALCS aftermath. It would have been: bad.

Adam asks: Reading about Shelley Duncan's role as the Analytics Coordinator with the White Sox has me wondering about that role on the Yankees. Who has that role, and what do you know about him/her? Seems like a very important role that should probably exist at all levels.

I can’t speak for other organizations but the Yankees have an analyst at every level, plus an army of front office people providing support and information. Zac Fieroh has been the Yankees’ Major League analyst since 2018 and he’s essentially a member of the coaching staff. He travels with the team and everything. What Fieroh does exactly, I couldn’t tell you, but he’s the traveling analyst.

The Yankees had analysts at Triple-A Scranton (Nick Loeffelholz), Double-A Somerset (Amanda Brady), and High-A Hudson Valley (Steven Dimaria) last year. There was no analyst listed for Low-A Tampa, though the player development folks have an analytics team at the minor league complex, so I assume the Tarpons are covered there. I’m sure there will again be an analyst at every level when the full 2023 minor league coaching staffs are announced. It’s an important role and the Yankees don’t skimp on it.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)