January 20th, 2023: Outfielders, Prospects, Warren, Mailbag

We've reached the point of the offseason when things are so dead there aren’t even interesting “this date in Yankees history” facts to pass along. Sunday is the nine-year anniversary (!) of the Masahiro Tanaka signing though. Has it really been nine years already? Lord. Let’s get to today’s post before I make myself feel any older.

1. Scouting the Market: Miscellaneous outfielders. Spring Training is less than a month away, and with each day that passes, the less likely it is the Yankees add a new left fielder before camp. Other than Jurickson Profar, the free agent outfield market has been picked clean, and trade candidates other than Bryan Reynolds (Max Kepler, Seth Brown, etc.) are decidedly meh.

Unless fresh news and/or rumors pop up the next few weeks, I’m going to wrap up my offseason left field search coverage now and look at a few miscellaneous trade and free agent targets. The last batch of players worth discussing, basically. Let’s break ‘em down one by one.

LHB Akil Baddoo, Tigers

2022 stats: .204/.289/.269 (65 wRC+), 2 HR, 28.4 K%, 10.7 BB% in 225 PA (MLB)

Baddoo, a Rule 5 Draft pick in Dec. 2020, had a legendary start to his career in 2021. He hit a home run on the first pitch he saw as a big leaguer, hit a grand slam the next day, then had a walk-off single the day after that. First impressions get no better. Baddoo fell into a slump after those first three games and spent 2022 bouncing between Triple-A and MLB (video).

A lefty hitter who will play most of the coming season at age 24, Baddoo’s skill set is similar to Estevan Florial’s. Impressive speed and raw power, good strike zone knowledge, good defense, praised for his makeup and work ethic, and an unfortunate knack for swinging over breaking balls and under elevated heaters. Baddoo is almost a full year younger than Florial though, and he showed promise as a rookie in 2021: .259/.330/.436 (110 wRC+) in 461 plate appearances.

The argument in favor of Baddoo says the raw skills are tantalizing and speed bumps, namely injuries (including Tommy John surgery) and the pandemic, have left him underdeveloped. There are reasons to believe there’s more to come. This is not close to a normal development path:

• 2016: 2nd round pick
• 2017: Rookie ball
• 2018: Full season in Low-A
• 2019: 29 games in High-A before Tommy John surgery
• 2020: Lost minor league season
• 2021: MLB as Rule 5 Draft pick
• 2022: 73 games in MLB and 30 games in Triple-A

Baddoo has never played in Double-A and he’s played only about a month in Triple-A. Be patient and give him an extended run (full season? half a season?) in Triple-A to catch up on all that lost development time, and Baddoo could be a really good player down the line. The Tigers should just keep him. He’s talented and they don’t have enough talent.

Does he make sense for the Yankees? As an immediate everyday (or even platoon) left fielder, probably not. Despite nearly 700 big league plate appearances, Baddoo remains a project who needs a little more seasoning. He’s definitely not the worst left field option among players in this post though. Baddoo at least has youth and ostensible upside going for him, and I’d rather roll the dice with a player like that then sign a veteran hanger-on.

LHB Kole Calhoun, Free Agent

2022 stats: .196/.257/.330 (67 wRC+), 12 HR, 32.1 K%, 6.4 BB% in 424 PA (MLB)

I’ve been doing these Scouting the Market posts so long that I wrote one about Calhoun in 2012, when he was still a prospect in Triple-A. I thought the Angels might make him available because, at the time, Mike Trout was flanked by Peter Bourjos and Mark Trumbo in the outfield. Good call, Axisa. Since that post Calhoun has played 10 full MLB seasons and parts of an 11th.

Now 35, Calhoun is probably done as a regular big leaguer. He’s hit .224/.307/.404 (91 wRC+) in his last 2,600 plate appearances and has been worse than that lately. His defense is average at best now too. In his prime, Calhoun was a legitimate Gold Glover in right. I’m not sure he even gets a minor league deal at this point. This might be a forced retirement situation.

Does he make sense for the Yankees? Even as a lefty bat, nah. I mean, there’s no harm in bringing Calhoun (or any player) to Spring Training as a non-roster invitee and seeing what’s what, but nah.

LHB Jarren Duran, Red Sox

2022 stats: .221/.283/.363 (78 wRC+), 3 HR, 28.3 K%, 6.3 BB% in 223 PA (MLB)

It’s telling that when Xander Bogaerts left as a free agent and Trevor Story went down with elbow surgery, and the Red Sox decided to move Enrique Hernández from center fielder to shortstop, then signed Adam Duvall to play center rather than hand the reins over to Duran, who is already 26. Duran’s had a Quad-A thing going on the last two years:

• MLB: .219/.269/.354 (69 wRC+) in 335 PA
• Triple-A: .272/.353/.503 (126 wRC+) in 590 PA

Duran has had trouble with velocity (he is 4-for-45 with 21 strikeouts against the Yankees the last two years because they keep feeding him elevated heaters) and there have been times Alex Cora has expressed frustration with Duran’s lapses in the field and on bases. The Duvall signing suggests Boston is running out of patience, or will at least make Duran earn his next opportunity.

That all said, Duran has the tools to be a power/speed threat in center field, a position that is difficult to fill these days. He’s a buy-low candidate with nothing left to prove in Triple-A. Duran is at the point in his career where he needs to face big league pitching to get better. A team willing to run him out there every day and live with the growing pains is the best fit.

Does he make sense for the Yankees? Similar to Baddoo, no as an immediate everyday left field option, but yes as a longer term project who could help down the line. Quality center fielders are in short supply, and even though Duran’s trouble with velocity may be a fatal flaw, a guy who was a top 100 prospect the last two years is worth the dice roll. Obviously the Red Sox/Yankees thing makes a Duran trade unlikely anyway.

LHB TJ Friedl, Reds

2022 stats: .240/.314/.436 (101 wRC+), 8 HR, 15.5 K%, 7.8 BB% in 258 PA (MLB)

If nothing else, Friedl has an interesting backstory. He went undrafted in 2016 because teams didn’t realize he was draft-eligible (there was confusion about his draft status as a redshirt sophomore at Nevada), so he became the rare coveted undrafted free agent. The Reds won the bidding war and paid him a $735,000 bonus, which is third round money. How about that?

Now 27, Friedl has pretty much maxed out his tools as a bat control guy with some power, some baserunning, some defense, and an elite bunt tool. The prospect scouting reports labeled him a legit 80 bunter on the 20-80 scouting scale. The Reds have Friedl penciled in as their everyday left fielder and leadoff hitter, and he might get exposed in that role. He projects more as an excellent fourth outfielder who is a fan favorite because he plays hard and has a fun skill set.

Does he make sense for the Yankees? As that fourth outfielder, or even on the heavy side of the platoon while the Yankees look for a more permanent left field solution, absolutely. The Yankees would have to unload Aaron Hicks to make the roster work and they’ve been unable to do that thus far, but it’ll happen soon enough. Friedl has limitations but is a good role player.

SHB Robbie Grossman, Free Agent

2022 stats: .209/.310/.311 (82 wRC+), 7 HR, 27.0 K%, 11.7 BB% in 477 PA (MLB)

Grossman hit 23 home runs in 2021, more than double his previous career high (11 in 2016), and there were swing change reasons (dating back to 2020) to buy into his new power stroke. Alas and alack, it didn’t continue in 2022, and the 33-year-old Grossman had the worst full season of his 10-year big league career. This ain’t gonna work for a bat-first guy:

Does he make sense for the Yankees? No. They already have a veteran switch-hitting left field candidate who has historically been better against lefties, will take a lot of walks while not providing much AVG or SLG, and will play good but not great defense. If the Yankees can trade Hicks, maybe Grossman fits. I still feel like they could do better.

LHB Tony Kemp and RHB Ramón Laureano, Athletics

2022 stats (Kemp): .235/.307/.334 (91 wRC+), 7 HR, 12.4 K%, 8.1 BB% in 558 PA (MLB)
2022 stats (Laureano): .211/.287/.376 (96 wRC+), 12 HR, 27.2 K%, 6.5 BB% in 383 PA (MLB)

The A’s opened last season with a $47.8M payroll. They actually spent some money this offseason (Aledmys Díaz, Shintaro Fujinami, Jace Peterson, Trevor May, Drew Rucinski) and now they project to open 2023 with a $56.2M payroll. The A’s are a money laundering front more than an MLB franchise. What a debacle.

I’m surprised they’ve hung onto Kemp and Laureano given their salaries ($3.725M and $3.55M, respectively), and also since they have a few young outfielders knocking on the door, though the offseason isn’t over yet. Still time to trade them (even if they say they’re keeping Laureano). Laureano can fake center field and a center field needy team (Dodgers?) could have interest.

Kemp is a personal favorite (I traded for him as part of last year’s Offseason Plan) though I like him more as a part-timer than as an everyday left fielder. He had a very rough first half last season (.203/.282/.263 and 65 wRC+), then shook it off and had a strong second half (.278/.342/.426 and 126 wRC+) that was in line with his 2021 output (.279/.382/.418 and 129 wRC+).

Statcast doesn’t give Kemp the stamp of approval (he’s near the bottom of the league in all the contact quality metrics), but we’ve got close to 2,000 plate appearances telling us he’s a league average hitter who rarely swings and misses, takes walks and works long at-bats, and runs the bases well. Add in average defense (in left and at second base) and you have a sneaky good depth player who plays with a lot of energy.

Do they make sense for the Yankees? Laureano is a hard no for me. The last thing the Yankees need is another righty with a lot of swing and miss. Kemp as a Hicks replacement would be swell. Hicks has more upside, we’ve seen it, but it’s been a while since we’ve seen it and I’m not sure we’ll see it again. I’m kinda sick of waiting to see whether it comes back.

LHB Trevor Larnach, Twins

2022 stats: .231/.306/.406 (102 wRC+), 5 HR, 31.7 K%, 10.0 BB% in 180 PA (MLB)

If the Twins are going to trade a lefty hitting outfielder, Kepler is the obvious one to go given his age, salary, and proximity to free agency. Larnach is probably next in line. Alex Kirilloff has more prospect pedigree and upside, and Matt Wallner is coming off a tremendous season between Double-A and Triple-A. They’re the more desirable players.

The No. 20 pick in the 2018 draft, Larnach is a brute force lefty masher with big exit velocities and a poor in-zone contact rate that is on par with guys like Javy Báez and Franchy Cordero. Here are Larnach’s numbers the last two years (481 MLB plate appearances) (video):

• Average exit velocity: 90.0 mph (MLB average: 88.6 mph)
• 90th percentile exit velocity: 107.4 mph (MLB average: 103.8 mph)
• Barrel rate: 10.3% (MLB average: 7.5%)
• Hard-hit rate: 41.8% (MLB average: 38.2%)
• Chase rate: 24.5% (MLB average: 29.1%)
• In-zone contact rate: 75.8% (MLB average: 84.8%)

Larnach crushes the ball and makes good swing decisions even though he doesn’t always make contact with those swings. When he was last prospect eligible in 2021, Eric Longenhagen said he sees Larnach as a “30-plus homer, high-OBP corner outfielder whose defensive ability drags his profile down a little bit.” That makes him what, potentially a poor man’s Kyle Schwarber?

A hernia limited Larnach for a bit last year and he eventually had season-ending surgery in June. It’s been a while since we’ve seen him at full strength, and with Wallner having his breakout year and the Twins signing Joey Gallo, Larnach has been pushed down the depth chart. This might be the perfect time to call about an imperfect yet useful player who would fill a need.

Does he make sense for the Yankees? I think so. The swing and misses issues aren’t ideal and neither is the underwhelming defense, but Larnach’s power is real and it should come with a double-digit walk rate. This could be a buy-low situation too given the hernia surgery. The Yankees need a lefty bat who can make an impact. I feel like Larnach has a better chance to do that right away than Baddoo or Duran, the other young guys we’ve covered thus far.

LHB Josh Lowe, Rays

2022 stats: .315/.402/.556 (151 wRC+), 14 HR, 32.8 K%, 12.5 BB% in 351 PA (Triple-A)

That’s Lowe as in low, not Lowe as in wow with Brandon Lowe. Thought to keep all of Tampa’s Lowes straight.

Anyway, Nate’s younger brother doesn’t have a roster spot with the Rays, yet he’s done all he needs to do in Triple-A (video). He’s got close to 1,000 plate appearances at the level the last two years. Tampa is set with Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot, Harold Ramírez, Jose Siri, and out of options utility guy Vidal Bruján in the outfield though. I guess Lowe has to wait for an injury?

Of course, these are the Rays, and it’s only a matter of time until they trade Arozarena because he’s too expensive. Arozarena qualified as a Super Two by one day this offseason and will make $4.15M in 2023 rather than something close to the league minimum as a pre-arbitration player. That one day of service time may lead to Tampa trading Arozarena a year earlier than they originally planned. Until that happens though, Lowe doesn’t have a roster spot.

The Triple-A numbers are great, the MLB numbers not so much (.225/.291/.346 and 86 wRC+ with a 33.0% strikeout rate in exactly 200 plate appearances), and while Lowe has been a top 100 prospect the last few years, he’s not viewed as a slam dunk. From Longenhagen last year:

There’s still some disagreement within the industry about whether he’s a capital “d” Dude or just a platoon-y cog in the Rays machine, but his combination of power, speed, and ball/strike recognition make up for his plate coverage and defensive issues enough to project him as an everyday player.

The Rays extending Margot and trading for Siri last year may suggest they’re not comfortable giving Lowe an everyday job despite his prospect pedigree. The kid turns 25 next month and he’s played close to two full seasons in Triple-A. It’s time to get this show on the road. Lowe will swing and miss a bunch, but he does a lot of other things well, and he doesn’t appear to have a path to playing time with his current organization without an injury. He’s blocked.

Does he make sense for the Yankees? With the caveat that the Rays almost certainly will not trade Lowe to the Yankees, yes, he does. The swing and miss issues are unfortunate, but there isn’t a perfect fit out there, and Lowe does enough other things to help his team. He’s also MLB ready. He’s put in the time at Triple-A and did what he needed to do. Whether it would be smart for the Yankees to deal with the growing pains is another matter, but in terms of what they need (a controllable lefty hitting outfielder) and what Lowe does, yes, he makes sense. (The difference between Lowe and Florial is Lowe has demolished Triple-A. Florial hasn’t.)

LHB Austin Meadows, Tigers

2022 stats: .250/.347/.328 (101 wRC+), 0 HR, 11.6 K%, 10.9 BB% in 147 PA (MLB)

I’m inclined to throw out Meadows’ 2022 entirely. He missed time with vertigo, an ear infection, COVID, and Achilles trouble, and then he sat out the rest of the season to focus on his mental health. It was a lost season, and 2021 is a better indicator of what the 27-year-old can do: .234/.315/.458 (113 wRC+) with 27 home runs in 591 plate appearances, including .251/.336/.536 (136 wRC+) against righties.

Here’s what new Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris told Cody Stavenhagen (subs. req’d) about Meadows in November:

“I’ve talked to Austin a couple times and had a really good meeting with him,” Harris said. “My exit interviews with all the players was a really important step to help me get to know them. I think there’s some things we can do to help Austin. I know Austin is working really hard in Florida right now. And when he’s right, he rakes. It’s important for us to provide him support to help him get back to the version that we’ve all seen him.”

Meadows is not a true talent 11.6% strikeout guy (it’s 19.5% against righties for his career), but he doesn’t swing and miss excessively, he has a Yankee Stadium friendly pull approach (eight homers in 22 career games in the Bronx), and the numbers say he’s a passable defensive left fielder. Not good, not bad, just okay. Enough to run him out there for 6-7 innings before someone replaces him in the late innings.

The Tigers were supposed to take a step forward last year, didn’t, and now they’re entering Year 7 of their rebuild. Harris was hired in September and this is his first time running a team, so we don’t have a good read on him yet. The Tigers traded relievers Joe Jiménez and Gregory Soto for Triple-A prospects and MLB-ready pieces earlier this offseason, not kids who are years away. That's all we have for Harris and his trade preferences.

Given the year Meadows just had, I would think Detroit will hold onto him, and hope he can stay healthy and rebuild trade value in 2023. The alternative is selling (very) low. Meadows needs a platoon partner (career .237/.296/.401 and 91 wRC+ against lefties) and a defensive caddy, but he’s a weapon against righties and almost an ideal No. 5-6 hitter for the Yankees.

Does he make sense for the Yankees? Absolutely, as long as he’s healthy and going to play in 2023. There have been no updates on Meadows since November, so we don’t really know what’s going on right now. As a platoon left fielder with two years of control remaining, yes, Meadows is a fit for the Yankees assuming he is ready to play.

RHB Darin Ruf, Mets

2022 stats: .204/.307/.338 (89 wRC+), 11 HR, 27.1 K%, 11.6 BB% in 388 PA (MLB)

The Mets traded four – four! – players for Ruf at last year’s deadline, including J.D. Davis, who is very likely the better player right now. Ruf quickly lost his job as the right-handed half of their DH platoon with Dan Vogelbach and is expected to get salary dumped a la James McCann in the coming weeks. The recent Tommy Pham signing all but confirms the Mets are dumping Ruf.

As bad as Ruf was in 2022, this is a guy who hit .272/.381/.519 (142 wRC+) with 21 homers in 412 plate appearances from 2020-21. You don’t have to look back far to see the last time he was a really good hitter. That’s the upside. The downside is Ruf turns 37 in July, he’s strikeout prone, and he’s essentially a DH who has no business playing the outfield regularly.

Does he make sense for the Yankees? No. The Mets would probably trade Ruf for a pine tar rag, and even eat a chunk of the $3.25M he’s owed to do it, though he is the exact opposite of what the Yankees need both offensively and defensively. I will say Ruf strikes me as the kinda random “what, wait?” player the Yankees occasionally acquire, like when they signed Chris Carter despite having Greg Bird at first base, or traded for Edwin Encarnación despite having Giancarlo Stanton at DH.

SHB Anthony Santander, Orioles

2022 stats: .240/.318/.455 (120 wRC+), 33 HR, 18.9 K%, 8.5 BB% in 647 PA (MLB)

The upside of being a hard tanking team is you can be very patient with young players. The O’s took Santander from Cleveland in the Rule 5 Draft way back in 2016, and it wasn’t until 2022 that he put up above-average offensive numbers in a full, non-pandemic season. Not sure a contender would’ve remained patient with Santander while he posted a 94 wRC+ from 2017-21.

As productive as Santander was last season, the Orioles figure to trade him at some point, and I’m a bit surprised they didn’t do it/haven’t done it yet this offseason. His trade value may never be higher given the year he just had and the two years of control. As a low OBP corner outfielder with shaky defense, Santander doesn’t strike me as the type of player the O’s will sign long-term, even if he will play the entire 2023 season at age 28. This works though (video):

Santander mashes lefties and is merely average against righties, which isn’t ideal, though he pulls the ball in the air a ton against righties. The 30.3% ground ball rate and 45.5% pull rate as a left-handed batter is tailor-made for the short porch. Santander doesn’t strike out or swing and miss excessively either. Even with an underwhelming OBP and poorly rated defense, Santander can provide what the Yankees are lacking (lefty power, basically).

Despite improving by 31 wins (!) last year, the Orioles are still acting like a rebuilding team. Look at their last few months:

• Signed Adam Frazier, Kyle Gibson, and Mychal Givens to one-year free contracts. They’re the kinda veterans you flip for a prospect at the deadline.
• Trey Mancini, their inspirational longest-tenured player, was traded for a Single-A pitcher (Seth Johnson) who had Tommy John surgery the day after the trade.
• All-Star closer Jorge López was traded for two rookie ball kids, a Single-A prospect, and a 28-year-old up-and-down arm (Yannier Cano).

The O’s are making moves geared toward the long-term future rather than moves to improve the team right now. The future is obviously important, but the Orioles have been rebuilding for the better part of a decade and they took a big step forward last year. Wouldn’t you make an effort to improve the roster and try for an expanded postseason spot in 2023? You can do that without damaging the long-term plan. The front office opted not to risk it. Whatever. Not my problem.

The Law of Perpetual Rebuilds says Santander is a trade candidate because the Orioles have younger and cheaper outfielders coming, and selling high when a player has a career year is Good Process. Lots of teams have shown interest in Santander the last 18 months or so. He isn’t perfect (no one is), but he’s productive and he’s not a rental.

Does he make sense for the Yankees? Indeed. The Yankees could slot Santander in as the No. 5 hitter behind Stanton and let him take aim for the short porch against righties and do his usual damage against lefties. Even with a .310-something OBP and iffy defense, Santander’s better than average contact rates and power potential would meaningfully improve the offense. But, of course, the intradivision thing complicates a trade. The O’s will have opportunities to trade Santander outside the AL East.

* * *

Younger players like Baddoo, Larnach, and Lowe are interesting and talented, and would bring the most long-term value (assuming they work out). Friedl and Kemp would be nifty role players. Meadows and Santander interest me most though (Santander moreso given the uncertainty with Meadows). If the Yankees go out and get a left fielder, I would prefer someone they could plop right into the lineup and reasonably expect immediate production, not another “if this and this go right he’ll be good” roll of the dice. They have enough of those already.

2. Mining the news. Got a couple Yankees-related and somewhat Yankees-related tidbits to pass along. Let’s dive in.

Baseball America’s top 100 prospects

Baseball America (subs. req’d) released their annual top 100 prospects list earlier this week and Orioles IF Gunnar Henderson is No. 1. The Yankees have five prospects in the top 100, which is two more than I expected. Their rankings:

14. SS Anthony Volpe
62. SS Oswald Peraza
67. OF Jasson Domínguez
78. OF Everson Pereira
94. C Austin Wells

Volpe was No. 10 last year, and while the drop from No. 10 to No. 14 isn’t big, it is a drop. It took Volpe a few weeks to settle in at Double-A Somerset, so he didn’t have that blow you away follow-up season to 2021. It’s fine. No. 14 is still really good. Pereira and Wells sneaking into the top 100 makes up for it. Five top 100 prospects is better than three.

In the subscriber-only chat (subs. req’d), it was noted it’s a lean top 100 this year, which I’m sure contributed to Pereira and Wells making it. Some years have more talent than others, that’s just baseball, though the lean top 100 is also a function of the five-round pandemic draft in 2020. Not only were fewer players drafted overall, but fewer high school players were drafted. A lot of talented high schoolers got squeezed out of the draft, went to college, and will be drafted this summer.

OF Spencer Jones, last year’s first rounder and the next great Yankees prospect, did not make the top 100. J.J. Cooper explained why in the chat (subs. req’d):

When we write about players who could easily jump onto this list in 2023, expect to see him prominently featured. Jones' analytical information (exit velocity, hard-hit rate, etc.) was exceptional in his pro debut and his performance matched those metrics. So why won't we put him on the Top 100 yet? We want to see a little more. As a three-year Vandy veteran, the Low-A FSL was not expected to be a big test for him and it wasn't. And at Vanderbilt, he really broke out as a hitter as a junior, after not performing at that level in his first two years. We think that Jones could end up being one of the best power hitters in the 2022 MLB Draft class, but we want to see him do it a little more before we're willing to slot him into the 100.

It is true Jones didn’t perform his first two years at Vanderbilt (.256/.342/.395 from 2020-21), but it was only 149 plate appearances because of the pandemic and Tommy John surgery. Not sure how relevant that is when looking at Jones now. Eh, whatever. “We want to see more” from a kid with a short track record is a valid reason to leave him outside the top 100.

(Baseball Prospectus will release their top 101 prospects list Friday (it’ll probably be out by time you read this) and their writers have indicated Jones will be in the middle of the list somewhere. They had him ahead of Domínguez on their top 10 Yankees prospects list (subs. req’d). Not sure I agree with that, but to each his own.)

The farm system can be easily divided into tiers. Volpe is in the top tier by himself, Domínguez and Peraza are the second tier, then there’s a small army of players in the third tier (Jones, Pereira, Wells, Trey Sweeney, Will Warren, etc.). You can put the third tier guys in almost any order and it would be defensible, yet someone has to rank No. 5 and someone has to rank No. 11. I’m curious to see whether Pereira and Wells get more top 100 love this spring.

Warren retires

Adam Warren, who soaked up a lot of thankless innings as a jack of all trades pitcher for the Yankees from 2012-15 and 2016-18, has called it a career. The Yankees held a fantasy camp in Tampa earlier this week and Warren was among the former players helping out. He delivered the retirement news to Bryan Hoch (video).

“I miss baseball. Looking forward to being around the game some more and maybe getting into some kinda coaching,” Warren told Hoch. “There’s no more attempt to come back or do anything like that. I’m happy with it. Had a great career, didn’t really leave anything out there. No regrets.”

Now 35, Warren was originally a fourth round pick in 2009, and he made 20 starts and 229 relief appearances in parts of seven seasons with the Yankees. He debuted in 2012, arrived for good in 2013, was traded for Starlin Castro at the 2015 Winter Meetings, was traded back to the Yankees in the Aroldis Chapman trade at the 2016 deadline, then was traded to the Mariners for international bonus money (that was used to sign Alex Vargas) at the 2018 deadline.

I’d say Warren’s signature moment as a Yankee was the postseason berth clincher in 2015. The Yankees limped to the finish that year and didn’t clinch a postseason spot until Game 159. With the rest of the bullpen taxed, Warren threw three scoreless innings in a one-run (later two-run) game to help send the Yankees back to the postseason for the first time since 2012 (video).

Warren played for the Cubs, Mariners, and Padres in addition to the Yankees, and if you’re reading this, you probably know he was way better with the Yankees than with those other teams. His career splits are fun:

• Yankees: 3.18 ERA (129 ERA+) and 3.61 FIP in 407 IP (+4.0 WAR)
• Not Yankees: 5.17 ERA (~84 ERA+) and 5.94 FIP in 85.1 IP (-1.2 WAR)

Warren had Tommy John surgery while with the Padres in 2019, then returned to the Yankees on a minor league deal in Dec. 2020. He spent 2021 with Triple-A Scranton and threw 57.2 innings with a 3.59 ERA (4.13 FIP), though his fastball was mostly 90-92 mph and his stuff was flat. The Yankees never gave much thought to calling him up. Warren did not play in 2022.

“Played in ‘21, felt pretty good, but velocity never came back like I wanted it to. With guys throwing as hard as they do today, 92-93 wasn’t cutting it anymore,” Warren told Hoch with a laugh. “I accepted that. I gave it one more good shot. Very satisfied with how it turned out.”

He wasn’t there for the postseason run, but the Cubs gave Warren a 2016 World Series ring – “Very honored to get it. I was kind of speechless when they gave it. It was an honor to be part of that special season,” he told Jesse Rogers – and that’s a pretty great memento for the trophy case. Not sure what’s next, but salute to a homegrown Yankee who had a fine career and gave the team a lot of good innings.

(David Phelps announced his retirement the same day as Warren. Phelpsie had a 3.80 ERA (4.20 FIP) and +2.0 WAR in 299.1 innings with the Yankees from 2012-14 before going to the Marlins in the Martín Prado/Nathan Eovaldi trade. Seems like just yesterday Phelps, Warren, Hector Noesí, and D.J. Mitchell were the next wave of pitching prospects. Two out of four ain’t bad. Not with pitching prospects.)

Yankees owe $9.7M in luxury tax

According to Ron Blum, the Yankees owe $9.7M in luxury tax for the 2022 season. That is based on a $267.8M luxury tax payroll. Their actual payroll was $257.4M, so the Yankees spent $267.1M on players between salary and luxury tax in 2022*, and these are the official numbers calculated by the commissioner’s office.

* The Yankees spent $267.1M on players in 2022 and $251.9M on players in 2016 ($224.5M salary plus $27.4M tax). That’s a 6% increase for the Yankees from 2016-22. The average payroll increased 11% since 2016.

FanGraphs estimates the 2023 luxury tax payroll at $292.3M, though the actual payroll is around $272M. Given their tax rates as a repeat offender, the Yankees project to be hit with a $28.9M luxury tax bill this year, which is more or less what they paid in tax in 2016. With the caveat that the season must still be played, the Yankees currently project to be at $300.9M between salary and tax in 2023. That's a tick above the $291M the Dodgers paid in salary alone in 2015.

I’ve discovered I'm unable to write about payroll without complaining, so I’m going to stop here. Luxury tax payments are due to the commissioner’s office Friday.

Blue Jays renovating Rogers Centre

For the second straight offseason, an AL East rival is renovating its ballpark. Last offseason the Orioles pushed the left field wall back at Camden Yards. This offseason the Blue Jays are giving Rogers Centre a facelift. Most of the work will upgrade the seating, concourses, things like that. They are changing the walls though. Here’s the best rendering the Blue Jays sent out:

As far as the playing field goes, Rogers Centre was boring. It was symmetrical and the wall was the same height all the way across. Now the wall height is variable, and the wall juts outward a bit near the new look bullpens. The field dimensions are changing somewhat and the wall heights are different too. Plus there are all those new party areas for fans.

The thing is, the Blue Jays haven’t announced the new dimensions. They say they’ll be revealed at a later date. Seeing how they’ve replaced Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernández, two defensive liabilities, with Gold Glove caliber defenders in Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho, I’m going to guess the Blue Jays expect outfielders to have more ground to cover.

Statcast park factors say Rogers Centre is close to neutral, though it favors doubles and homers over singles and triples. How will it play now? Beats me. For what it’s worth, Toronto’s pitching staff had a 4.07 ERA (3.99 FIP) and .313 wOBA allowed at home the last two seasons. On the road, it was a 3.70 ERA (.386 FIP) and .305 wOBA allowed on the road. That’s one extra earned run every 24 innings or so. One a series. Maybe the new dimensions will even it out for them.

With the new schedule, the Yankees will only play seven games at Rogers Centre next year (four games from May 15-18 and three games from Sept. 26-28). If the ballpark plays differently with the new dimensions, it won’t directly impact the Yankees much, but if it helps the Blue Jays sort out some of their pitching issues without hurting the offense too much, they could be a greater threat in the AL East. We’ll see. Point is, an AL East rival’s park will have a new look in 2023.

(Rogers Centre is the seventh oldest park in baseball and the Blue Jays reportedly looked into tearing it down and building a new park on the same site because they don’t want to give up their premium downtown location. That wasn’t possible, so they’re doing a $300M renovation that will be completed in phases over several years, similar to the Madison Square Garden renovations a few years ago. The Rays are the only hope for a new ballpark in the AL East anytime soon. They’ll get one eventually. I think.)

Mailbag Questions of the Week

JDK asks: Bader, Stanton and Judge in the outfield. Who plays left?

At a neutral field, a perfectly symmetrical park, just go with Giancarlo Stanton in left, Harrison Bader in center, and Aaron Judge in right. Let Bader and Judge play their best positions, and put Stanton in the other spot. You could argue the Yankees should move their outfielders around based on the hitter’s tendencies (i.e. put Bader where the batter hits the ball the most), but no one does that. (I could’ve sworn a team tried this years ago, but I can’t find it.)

Stanton rated very well as an outfielder back in the day (+45 DRS from 2010-17), but he doesn’t run well anymore, and at age 33, you’d expect his defense to start declining anyway. At this point he fits best in Yankee Stadium’s small right field, so I guess that means Bader in left and Judge in center since Judge hasn’t played left field in the big leagues (Bader has). I think Judge would be fine in left, so if you said Judge in left and Bader in center, I wouldn’t argue.

There are certain parks where the Yankees could get away with Stanton in left field. Fenway Park and Minute Maid Park, for example. If you’ve never been to Fenway or Minute Maid, it is comical how close the left field wall is. You have to see it to believe it. Television does do it justice. You can hide a poor defender there, which is why Stanton played left field in ALCS Game 1 and Matt Carpenter played left field in Houston during the regular season.

(Stanton played four regular season games in left field last year: two in Boston and two in Houston. All his other outfield time was in right field.)

I assume the plan this year will be similar to the plan last year. Stanton will play right field when Judge gets a DH day or sits, or plays center field while Bader sits. Stanton made 21 of his 34 right field appearances in the Bronx, so the Yankees really pick their spots with him. When they put Stanton in the outfield, it’s in a place he has as little ground to cover as possible.

Rich asks: I know the likelihood of this happening is extremely low, even if it is legal. But let's say the Pirates were interested in Brandon Mayea as part of a Bryan Reynolds swap. I believe MLB changed the rules allowing recently drafted players to be traded much sooner, but what about International Free Agent signings like Mayea? Would be a different way for the Yankees to flex their financial muscle.

Recently drafted players are eligible to be traded the day after the World Series. The old rule was a year after they signed their first contract, but teams got around that by including recent draftees in trades as players to be named later, cutting the waiting period down to six months (PTBNL have to be named within six months). MLB changed the rule in 2015, after Trea Turner spent a few months in limbo with the Padres as he waited out his PTBNL period to go to the Nationals.

If there is a waiting period to trade international free agents, it is very short. No more than 45 days based on Yordan Alvarez. The Dodgers signed Alvarez as an international free agent on June 15th, 2016, then traded him to the Astros on Aug. 1st, 2016. Unless MLB has changed the rules since then (possible), international free agents can be traded within 45 days of signing. Maybe even sooner.

So yes, the Yankees could put Mayea on the table in Reynolds trade talks, and they should. That kid is 17 years old, he’s yet to play a pro game, and there is close to zero chance he helps the Yankees while Gerrit Cole, Aaron Judge, et al are in their primes. We also haven’t had a chance to develop an emotional attachment as fans. Trade that kid before we love him too much!

Mike asks: It is a known fact that Judge gets an absurd amount of pitches below the zone called a strike against him. However, I never hear anything in this regard about Stanton. He's only 1 inch shorter so I would assume that he could be subject to a similar amount of inaccurate calls. I know Stanton isn't as disciplined, so does he just swing more at low pitches out of the zone than Judge, eliminating the umps from making the bad call themselves? Do their batting stances have anything to do with the perception? Is the gap in their heights really more than 1 inch?

MLB’s official height and weight listings are notoriously unreliable, but just from covering games the last few years, I can buy Giancarlo Stanton being within an inch of Aaron Judge. Judge is a bit taller but not by much. Last week I listed Judge’s called strike rate on pitches taken below the zone. Here are Stanton’s:

• 2017: 19.6% (MLB average: 20.1%; Judge is 23.6%)
• 2018: 26.8% (MLB average: 19.8%; Judge is 29.9%)
• 2019: 24.1% (MLB average: 19.4%; Judge is 24.4%)
• 2020: 26.0% (MLB average: 20.6%; Judge is 31.7%)
• 2021: 24.7% (MLB average: 19.4%; Judge is 27.2%)
• 2022: 26.3% (MLB average: 19.4%; Judge is 26.7%)

Like Judge, Stanton does fall victim to a higher called strike rate when he takes a pitch Statcast says is below the zone, and their rates have been pretty darn close some years too. Stanton’s chase rate is usually a few percentage points higher than Judge’s but still better than average, and their overall swing rates are about the same. That doesn’t seem to be a factor here.

Sometimes the simplest explanation is correct: Judge and Stanton are very tall, several inches taller than the average player (6-foot-2 in 2022, per David Adler), and umpires are either unable or unwilling to adjust their strike zones for these outliers. The bottom of Judge’s and Stanton’s zone should be higher than most other players’, but they aren’t called that way. It could be their batting stance, could be the way they wear their socks. I think it’s just their size.

Mark asks: If Aroldis Chapman doesn't throw another pitch in the MLB ever again, is he a Hall of Famer? He has a long period of success in a role that is increasingly difficult to succeed in, but has well documented off field issues. The bar for closers is very high right now to get in, but I feel like more relievers will clear the bar for entry in the future.

As I write this Thursday afternoon, Billy Wagner is at 72.5% on the Hall of Fame ballot tracker with roughly 42% of ballots known. He’s going to fall short of 75% again, but he continues to gain support (16.7% to 31.7% to 46.4% to 51.0% the last four years), and could get in before his time on the ballot expires the year after next. Wagner getting in could be the breakthrough modern relievers need. That could open the door for a few guys.

He’s not the most popular player in our neck of the internet, but I think we can all acknowledge Chapman is one of the best relievers of his generation along with Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, and David Robertson. They are the top four relievers in WAR and WPA over the last 15 years. Here is the side-by-side comparison with Wagner using “+” stats to bridge eras.

Those four guys are all a notch below Wagner, though they are still playing and could improve their case (but are more likely to hurt their numbers given where they are in their careers). Chapman, Jansen, and Kimbrel are the three relievers from this era who will deserve Hall of Fame consideration when the time comes. Robertson is a notch below them.

Chapman would have no shot at getting voted into the Hall of Fame today. Fortunately for him, he is not Hall of Fame eligible today. Chapman signed with the Royals earlier this week (at least they won’t have to worry about him bailing on the team in the postseason), but even if he were done playing, he would join the Hall of Fame ballot in five years, and then spend up to 10 years on the ballot. Who knows what the voting body and reliever standard will look like come 2037? Wagner could be in, Francisco Rodríguez could be in, the Veterans Committee could put Jonathan Papelbon and Joe Nathan in, etc.

I don’t think Chapman gets into the Hall of Fame, ultimately. I think Jansen and Kimbrel eventually get in and Chapman gets left out because he’s further down the career saves leaderboard (still a thing that matters to some), he’s had several devastating postseason moments (the Jose Altuve, Mike Brosseau, and Rajai Davis homers), and he was never all that popular. Chapman’s stats will be about as good as any reliever not in the Hall of Fame though, plus I’d argue his fastball made him very famous. He is the hardest-throwing documented pitcher in history.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)