Poll: The 2023 Leadoff Hitter

I started writing up a blurb on the 2023 leadoff hitter for Tuesday’s post and figured it would work better as a poll rather than as a straight post, so here it is.

Not easy to make the 6-foot-4 LeMahieu look small.

Do you remember who hit leadoff for the Yankees on Opening Day last season? It wasn’t DJ LeMahieu. He hit fifth. It wasn’t Aaron Judge or Anthony Rizzo, who’ve hit leadoff occasionally. It wasn’t Aaron Hicks and all his walks either. Gleyber Torres? Nope. Not him. Give up? It was Josh Donaldson. Donaldson hitting leadoff was a whole big thing in Spring Training and he led off the first three regular season games, and five of the first seven.

“You want a good player hitting in that spot,” Aaron Boone told Randy Miller late last spring about using Donaldson in the leadoff spot. “You want to go with a guy that gets on base hitting in that spot. Yeah, it's great if anyone can run. It's great if the three hitter can run, the four hitter. The biggest thing is I want a good hitter that gets on base a lot."

Donaldson started the season in the leadoff spot, Hicks spent about a week atop the lineup after that, then LeMahieu took over in mid April. He remained there until the foot injury sidelined him in August. Andrew Benintendi filled in for a bit, then Judge once Benintendi got hurt. Here are starts in the leadoff spot last season:

1. DJ LeMahieu: 89
2. Aaron Judge: 34
3. Aaron Hicks: 14
4. Andrew Benintendi: 9
5. Josh Donaldson: 5
6. Anthony Rizzo: 5
7. Gleyber Torres: 3
8. Matt Carpenter: 2
9. Oswaldo Cabrera: 1

Nine different leadoff hitters are the Yankees’ most since they used 10 different leadoff hitters in 1983, if you can believe that. It was the first time they used three different players in the leadoff spot at least 10 times each since 2018, when Brett Gardner (107), Hicks (37), and Andrew McCutchen (21) did it. Once LeMahieu got hurt, the leadoff spot was a revolving door.

(The Yankees used four different leadoff hitters and three different starting shortstops in nine postseason games. Seems like two positions you want to have sorted out before October. Shrug.)

That begs the question: who’s hitting leadoff in 2023? Benintendi’s gone and the Yankees have, somewhat inexplicably, made no additions to the offense with Spring Training a month away. Not unless you count Rafael Ortega, a non-roster guy with spiffy projections and a reasonable enough chance to make the Opening Day roster. Let’s talk this out.

The obvious candidate: DJ LeMahieu

As long as LeMahieu is healthy, we should expect him to hit leadoff. The Yankees have toyed with using his high contact bat lower in the order to drive in runs, but LeMahieu has hit atop the lineup more often than not in his four seasons as a Yankee. Given the current roster, he is the best man for the job because he gets on base and you’re not wasting power up there.

LeMahieu was not healthy to end the season, however, and we don’t really know whether he’ll be healthy to begin 2023. The Yankees say LeMahieu is doing well, but until we see him on the field in Spring Training and looking like himself, we don’t really know. Boone has a history of downplaying injuries and it’s hard to take him at his word. If healthy, LeMahieu will hit leadoff. If not, well, I don’t know, and that's what we're here to discuss.

The big guy: Aaron Judge

Judge hit leadoff most of September and into the postseason, and that had more to do with the Yankees giving their best hitter as many at-bats as possible because the offense was struggling than it did giving Judge the best chance to break Roger Maris’ record. Using a 62-homer guy in the leadoff spot is unconventional, but power hitters Kyle Schwarber and George Springer regularly hit leadoff. It’s a sign of the times.

"40 years ago they ran the Wing-T and Wishbone. 40 years ago, if a guy dunked, it was a big deal,” Boone told Bryan Hoch in September about Judge hitting leadoff. “The game evolves and changes."

Judge is unlikely to hit .311/.425/.686 (207 wRC+) with 62 friggin’ home runs again. He could repeat his 2021 output – .287/.373/.544 (149 wRC+) and 39 homers – and it would be a) an amazing season, and b) a major step back from 2022. If Judge takes a step back, the offense will take a step back, and in a screwed up way it will put more pressure on Judge. They’ll have to maximize his production.

And maximizing Judge’s production does not involve batting him leadoff and turning a bunch of his 35-45 homers (hopefully more!) into solo shots. Consider some numbers from last year:

NYY leadoff spot plate appearances: 760 (MLB average: 742.5)
NYY No. 2 spot plate appearances: 742 (MLB average: 724.5)

NYY leadoff spot plate appearances with men on base: 254 (MLB average: 254.2)
NYY No. 2 spot plate appearances with men on base: 346 (MLB average: 303.8)

The leadoff spot got 18 more plate appearances than the No. 2 spot across 162 games last year and, in an individual game, that one extra at-bat could be huge! It could mean Judge getting to the plate down a run with two outs in the ninth instead of standing on deck. But it was only 18 plate appearances in a 162-game season. The overall impact is small.

As for hitting with men on base, the No. 2 spot does it way more often than the leadoff spot. The MLB average was roughly one extra plate appearance with men on base every three games (it was one every 1.7 games for the 2022 Yankees). The Yankees need – not want, need – Judge hitting with men on base as often as possible, and the leadoff spot is the worst place to put him for that. To me, this outweighs getting a few extra at-bats throughout the season.

The Yankees put Judge atop the lineup for long stretches of time last year (he hit leadoff in 23 consecutive games at one point) and it wouldn’t be a shock to see them do it again this year. I don’t like it though. I think they need him a little lower in the order so he can drive in runs. The No. 2 spot strikes the perfect balance between lots of at-bats and lots of ducks on the pond. We can’t rule Judge out as the leadoff hitter. It’s just not my preference.

“It’s fun," Judge told Greg Joyce about hitting leadoff last June. “I don’t mind leading off. It doesn’t really matter if I’m leading off or hitting second. You got to keep your approach the same.”

The only lefty: Anthony Rizzo

Set the minimum at 300 plate appearances and Rizzo is the seventh best leadoff hitter in history by OPS. That counts for something, right? Right??? Rizzo hit leadoff in the 2021 AL Wild Card Game and again in Game 3 of the 2022 ALCS. From a “he’ll get on base a bunch of give you a quality at-bat” perspective, sure, Rizzo can be a leadoff guy.

The thing is, Rizzo is the Yankees’ only left-handed bat of consequence, at least until Cabrera further proves himself (and/or Hicks rebounds). Bat him leadoff and you’re giving the opposing manager a nice long lane of righties in the middle of the lineup, including several who are prone to striking out. Rizzo provides crucial balance in the middle of the order.

“He is one of those guys who really doesn’t care where he hits,” Boone told Bill Ladson about using Rizzo as the leadoff hitter back in 2021 “... He brings that patience up there. Obviously, the power. He shortens up against the lefty. He goes the other way for a base hit. He has had really good at-bats.”

The new guy: Harrison Bader

Incredibly, Bernie Williams (six in 1996), Alex Rodriguez (six in 2009), and Giancarlo Stanton (six in 2020) are the only Yankees to hit more home runs in a single postseason than Bader. He hit five homers in nine postseason games last year after hitting five homers in 86 regular season games around his foot injury. Bader was dominant in October.

“There were times during this year, specifically, where I thought my season was lost because of the lingering nature of my injury,” Bader told Julia Kreuz following the ALCS. “To get back to a position where I could again be effective for myself and my teammates, as a result of the medical staff doing their job properly, was a massive, massive step for me. So, I'm just going to continue to carry that momentum moving forward.”

A few weeks ago Bader made an appearance on MLB Network (5:38 mark of the video) and told an interesting story about the biteguard (not mouthguard) he uses while at the plate. Long story short, Bader would get very tense and put himself in a stressful position while hitting, and the biteguard alleviates the stress. He had one custom molded, began using it in the postseason, felt much more relaxed at the plate, and the homers followed. How about that?

The magic biteguard turning Bader into a consistent power hitter would be an incredible development, and he would almost be a Byron Buxton clone. Power, league average-ish OBP, elite defense. It’s also possible Bader just happened to have a nine-game heater at an opportune time, and the biteguard is one of those baseball superstitions players stick with it. I guess we’ll find out.

Bader has never been much of an on-base guy (career high is a .334 OBP in the 60-game pandemic season) but he will steal double-digit bases and run into the occasional homer. The track record says he’ll be close to a league average hitter. He’s also 28 and could have a career year in 2023, particularly if the biteguard really does lead to improvement at the plate.

The Yankees hit Bader leadoff in Games 2 and 4 of the ALCS and that was a desperation move more than anything. He and Rizzo were the only Yankees who consistently hit in October, so the Yankees put Bader atop the lineup to give him more at-bats and get runners on base for everyone else. My hunch is the Yankees are willing to put Bader at leadoff again in 2023, though he is not Plan A, and ideally he’d show he belongs up there before they do it.

The sleeper candidate: Gleyber Torres

Torres has 10 career starts at leadoff and 12 career starts as the No. 2 hitter. I would’ve guessed it was 3-4 times that. I dunno. Anyway, Gleyber hit leadoff in Games 3-5 of the ALDS and Game 1 of the ALCS last year, but again, the Yankees were going trial-and-error with the leadoff spot in the postseason without LeMahieu. Torres is their plug-and-play guy. The Yankees are comfortable hitting him anywhere in the order depending on the day’s needs.

That miserable August (.180/.204/.260 and 28 wRC+) dragged down Gleyber’s overall season batting line. He hit .275/.333/.495 (135 wRC+) outside August*, and he’s always posted better than average chase rates while seeing 4+ pitches per plate appearance. Torres had the best contact quality numbers of his career in 2022. He punished the ball and paired it with a league average strikeout rate. At age 26, he's entering what should be the prime of his career.

* If we’re going to take away his worst month, it’s only fair we take away his best month too, right? Torres hit .242/.292/.423 (102 wRC+) outside his big September (.323/.389/.573 and 172 wRC+).

Gleyber is a divisive player. It seems like there are a lot of fans who don’t like him and want him traded, a lot of fans who are perfectly fine with him, and a small number of fans who love him. With Gary Sánchez, it was two extremes. You either loved him or hated him. With Torres, you either hate him or you’re okay with him. It’s weird, and I think the reaction to him being the regular leadoff hitter would be mostly negative.

That said, there are leadoff hitter skills here. Gleyber doesn’t strike out excessively, he generally works long at-bats, and he can give you a quick 1-0 lead with a homer. He’s not going to steal many bases or run a double-digit walk rate, but he’s not a Rougned Odor-esque hacker either. I think the Yankees are more comfortable with Torres hitting leadoff than we may realize, even if he hasn’t done it all that much in his career to date.

The kids

Cabrera will be on the roster in some capacity. Ideally he’s a super utility guy who plays all over, though he may be the everyday left fielder. Oswald Peraza should – should – be the starting shortstop. Is there a chance one of them begins the season as the leadoff hitter? I guess so, though it is unlikely. I don’t think Peraza will go from barely playing in September to being the leadoff hitter in April.

Derek Jeter started 1996 as the No. 9 hitter and eventually moved into the leadoff spot in early August (Wade Boggs was the primary leadoff hitter before that). Teams have broken rookies in as the No. 9 hitter before gradually moving them up in the lineup since the dawn of baseball. Judge hit eighth on Opening Day 2017. Peraza not being in a prominent lineup spot out of the gate is a-okay. This also applies to Anthony Volpe, whenever he joins the roster.

Cabrera has more of an MLB track record than Peraza and he was awesome, but it was only 200 plate appearances on the nose, postseason included. Cabrera switch-hits though, he sees a lot of pitches (4.19 per plate appearance last year), and can ambush a pitcher for a leadoff dinger. Plus he brings a ton of energy. You can envision him starting the game with a walk and pumping up his teammates as he makes his way down to first base.

On the flip side, Cabrera is the Yankees’ second best lefty hitter, and my hunch is they would like him to hit lower in the order to balance things out. Start the lineup Cabrera-Judge-Rizzo and that’s a long string of righties in the 4-5-6-7-8-9 spots, making life a little easier for the opposing manager. There could be a point where it makes sense to put Cabrera atop the lineup. I don’t think the Yankees are there yet, or even particularly close.

Miscellaneous candidates

At his 2017-20 peak, Hicks was the ideal leadoff hitter. That guy didn’t swing and miss much, ran one of the highest walk rates in the league, stole bases, and could jump on a mistake and put it in the seats. Hicks’ last two years have been very bad though, and I don’t think the Yankees should or would put him atop the lineup this year without first seeing genuine signs of improvement. I don’t mean a 10-game hot streak either. I mean a few weeks of sustained production … The Donaldson at leadoff experiment ran its course early last year and won’t be revisited. If anything, he needs to show he belongs in the lineup at all, particularly if LeMahieu is healthy to begin the season. Donaldson at leadoff isn’t an option … Isiah Kiner-Falefa doesn’t strike out and might steal 30+ bags with the new rules. Does he even have a lineup spot at this point though? The Yankees seem ready to give the shortstop reins to Peraza, and even if Kiner-Falefa were an everyday player, the utter lack of power and walks make him a poor fit at leadoff … The Yankees have batted everyone but Stanton leadoff at some point, so I don't think he's a realistic option. He doesn't run well and you want him hitting with men on base so he can put a dent in scoreboard (figuratively and sometimes even literally) ... Ortega started over 100 games at leadoff on bad Cubs teams the last two years and has leadoff hitter skills with his lefty contact bat, walk rate, and stolen base ability. He has some power too. He has to win a roster spot first, but don’t sleep on Ortega as an eventual leadoff candidate, at least against righties.

* * *

As much as fans collectively fret about it on a day-to-day basis, the lineup is constantly evolving. Players grow into and out of roles, they level up in their primes or slip into their decline, and moves are made to reshape the roster. What you see in April is rarely what you get in October, and you only need to look back at Donaldson hitting leadoff last Opening Day for evidence.

I think we can all agree that as long as LeMahieu is healthy, he’ll begin 2023 as the leadoff hitter. He doesn’t have a set position yet he’s always in the lineup, and Judge is the only hitter I would comfortably expect to post a better OBP than healthy LeMahieu. If the foot continues to be an issue, or his bat declines, the Yankees will adjust. But until that happens, LeMahieu is the guy.

For poll purposes, let’s assume LeMahieu is not an option for health or performance reasons. In that case, who do you think should hit leadoff?