January 13th, 2023: ZiPS, Kiner-Falefa, International Free Agency, Mailbag

I wrote a thing looking at Chris Taylor as a potential trade target predicated on the Dodgers trying to stay under the $233M luxury tax threshold, then Los Angeles traded for Miguel Rojas and blew up their luxury tax plan. I assume the Dodgers have more moves coming and didn’t go a few million over the threshold to add a guy like Rojas. The Taylor stuff is in the Content Graveyard, if you’re still interested. Now here is today’s post.

1. 2023 ZiPS projections. It’s that time of year. Dan Szymborski is running through his annual series creating ZiPS projections for each team, and earlier this week he covered the Yankees. Here is the WAR graphic:

ZiPS and projection systems in general are inherently conservative, but that is roughly a 95-win projection. There’s a hole in left field, there’s some injury risk in the rotation, and a few positions are defense over offense, but that’s a damn good team. Good enough to beat the Astros and win a World Series? I don’t know. I think the Yankees are the AL East favorites right now though.

With eight teams to go (most notably the Braves), Judge’s projection is the second best spit out by ZiPS so far this year, behind only Shohei Ohtani at a combined +7.6 WAR (+3.5 hitting and +4.1 pitching). Judge’s 20th percentile projection, the “things went wrong” projection, is a .251/.357/.514 (139 wRC+) line and +5.4 WAR. Goodness.

ZiPS provides player comps based on age and performance and many other factors, and the top comps for Gerrit Cole (Max Scherzer, Curt Schilling) and Carlos Rodón (Hal Newhouser, Lefty Grove) are all Hall of Fame talents. Anthony Volpe got an Adrián Beltré comp. That’s fun. Oswaldo Cabrera getting a Gene Freese comp is less fun.

I don’t want to spend too much time dwelling on projections – as a reminder, projections are an estimate of the player’s current talent level, not a prediction – but a few things caught my eye with ZiPS, so let’s talk about them quickly.

How about that Bader projection?

+4.5 WAR! And that’s coming from a conservative projection system. An explanation is required though. The WAR graphic says +4.5 WAR. Bader’s actual ZiPS projection is .250/.319/.419 (104 OPS+) and +3.2 WAR. What gives? Playing time. ZiPS projects Bader at 395 plate appearances. The WAR graphic uses playing time from the FanGraphs depth chart, which has Bader at 560 plate appearances. Scale +3.2 WAR in 395 plate appearances up to 560 plate appearances and you get the +4.5 WAR projection. Got it? Good.

(ZiPS projects Judge at +7.4 WAR in 643 plate appearances, though the WAR graphic scales that down to +6.5 WAR based on 560 plate appearances in the depth chart.)

Bader has an injury history beyond last year’s foot issue. He had a broken rib and a forearm injury in 2021, and a hamstring issue in 2019. Since 2019, Bader has played only 367 of 546 possible regular season games, or 67%. His career high is 427 plate appearances in 2018, so that 560 plate appearance playing time estimate is awfully generous.

That said, +3.2 WAR in under 400 plate appearances points is an excellent player. It’s mostly defense, but defense counts too, and it’s not like the projected .250/.319/.419 (104 OPS+) line would be bad for a center fielder. Center fielders not named Judge and Mike Trout kinda stink. Getting +3 WAR out of Bader in 2023 would be a good outcome, and the +4.5 WAR in the graphic would create a “they have to re-sign him!” situation next offseason.

Ortega’s projection

When the Yankees signed Rafael Ortega to a minor league deal last week, I said he was a good depth pickup and the best left field candidate among the non-roster signings because he’s a lefty with contact skills, pull power, good baserunning, and good enough defense. Ortega is a sneaky good pickup relative to most minor league signings.

ZiPS apparently agrees: .252/.331/.405 (101 OPS+) and +2.0 WAR in 412 plate appearances. Ortega’s projection is quite a bit better than Cabrera’s (.229/.286/.394 and 87 OPS+ with +1.4 WAR) and especially Aaron Hicks’ (.215/.323/.343 and 87 OPS+ with +0.5 WAR). It’s not often you can nab a projected +2 WAR player on a minor league deal.

Ortega is not some young kid. He turns 32 in May, and outside a few good weeks with the Cubs in 2021 and early in 2022, he’s been a Quad-A player. Those guys will break your heart. Still, there are interesting enough skills here, and an objective projection system likes him. I hope the Yankees bring in a left fielder, but as a cheap stopgap, they could do worse than Ortega.

ZiPS as a measure of depth

I like to use ZiPS to measure depth at three levels: +4 WAR (All-Star caliber players), +2 WAR (average players), and +1 WAR (useful players). How many players do the Yankees have at each level and how does it compare to other top contenders? That kinda thing.

We’re still waiting on ZiPS for eight teams, but the Braves and Phillies are the only two of those eight teams in the same contender tier as the Yankees (World Series hopefuls). We can still compare the Yankees to the Astros, Dodgers, Mets, and Padres. Here’s how many players each of those teams have at my admittedly arbitrary WAR levels:

Teams were only given credit for players on the roster, so I didn’t count Jurickson Profar for the Padres even though he was lumped in with their projections. The Yankees are a step behind the other World Series contenders at my various levels of depth, though I wouldn’t fret too much. They're right there and projections are an imperfect science. I only do this as a ballpark estimate.

ZiPS confirms what we already knew: the Yankees are good, Judge rules, left field could be a problem, etc. We all want the perfect roster on Opening Day, but the Yankees are (probably) good enough to weather the storm in left field while waiting to see who becomes available at the deadline. The roster on Sept. 30th is more important than the roster on March 30th. That said, go get a left fielder, por favor. Ortega’s projection is nice, but I’d like a more sure thing.

2. Updated potential IKF landing spots. Only 26 more teams until the Yankees begrudgingly give Carlos Correa a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training. That joke would’ve worked better if Correa hadn’t already passed his Twins physical, but I didn’t want to leave it on the cutting room floor. That’s what I get for blogging only twice a week. Anyway, after concerns about an old ankle injury held up Correa’s deal with the Mets, he pivoted to the Twins and is returning to Minnesota. Six years and $200M with another $70M in option years.

(The Mets and Correa originally agreed to a 12-year, $315M deal. Jon Heyman says the Mets would only guarantee the first six years and $157.5M. The second six years and $157.5M would have been tied to Correa’s health. Given Steve Cohen’s public comments about the signing, Scott Boras and Correa may file a grievance. That would be a hoot.)

The (latest) Correa deal is most relevant to the Yankees because it takes away a potential trade partner for Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The Twins needed a shortstop and they traded for Kiner-Falefa last offseason, so we know they liked him at one point. Now they don’t need him. Here are the teams I listed as potential Kiner-Falefa trade partners last month, after Dansby Swanson signed, and their shortstops at the time:

• Angels: David Fletcher and Gio Urshela
• Braves: Orlando Arcia and Vaughn Grissom
• Diamondbacks: Nick Ahmed (post-shoulder surgery) and Geraldo Perdomo
• Dodgers: Gavin Lux and Chris Taylor
• Twins: Kyle Farmer and Royce Lewis (post-ACL surgery)

Correa takes the Twins out. The Angels have recently signed Brandon Drury, so I assume they’re done adding infielders. The Dodgers traded for Miguel Rojas earlier this week, so they’re likely out too. The Nationals are a possibility. I should’ve mentioned them last time. Top prospect CJ Abrams was rushed through the minors (plus he lost a year to the pandemic) and could use more seasoning. Kiner-Falefa would buy Abrams time.

Trevor Story had an internal brace surgery earlier this week (a Tommy John surgery alternative) and might miss the season. The Red Sox already needed a middle infielder to replace Xander Bogaerts. Now they really need a shortstop-capable infielder. Would the Yankees and Red Sox hook up for a Kiner-Falefa trade? I doubt it, but hey, you never know.

“It means there’s more to do,” Red Sox head honcho Chaim Bloom told Molly Burkhardt after Story's surgery. “We already wanted to strengthen the middle of the field obviously, even when Trevor was healthy that was the case. We were fortunate that we had him and Kiké (Hernández) as good options that covered us in a number of different ways. Obviously Kiké can still do that, but it’s an area that we certainly want and need to add to.”

There were rumblings the Yankees and Rockies discussed a Kiner-Falefa for a reliever trade weeks ago (I don’t know which reliever but Justin Lawrence seems Yankees-like), before the non-tender deadline, and perhaps they’ll revisit that. Colorado’s projected shortstop is top prospect Ezequiel Tovar, who reached Triple-A late last year and played five games there. They could use a stopgap.

The Rojas trade suggests Kiner-Falefa can fetch a team’s top 15-20ish prospect. They’re both glove-first shortstop/utility infielder types who are a year away from free agency with similar 2023 salaries ($6M vs. $5M). Rojas is more sure-handed. Kiner-Falefa is younger and likely the better hitter at this point. A team’s top 15-20ish prospect seems reasonable enough.

The question is why would a team trade for Kiner-Falefa when they could just sign Elvis Andrus or José Iglesias to one-year deals at similar money? I don’t have a good answer, though this also applied last offseason, and Kiner-Falefa got traded twice in two days. It’s not crazy to want the soon-to-be 28-year-old over guys in their mid-30s, right? Especially at shortstop.

The other question is do the Yankees trust Oswaldo Cabrera to be their backup shortstop? You can put him there for a game or two, maybe even 2-3 weeks at a time if there’s an injury, but anything more than that might be a stretch. Trade Kiner-Falefa and the shortstop depth chart is kids all the way down. Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, Anthony Volpe, Delvin Pérez, etc.

The Yankees obviously value Kiner-Falefa as a stopgap and they just might keep him as veteran depth. DJ LeMahieu’s foot remains a question and Josh Donaldson has collapse potential, so as much as Kiner-Falefa’s play irritates me, hanging onto infield depth isn’t a terrible idea. I still think they should trade him, but I can understand keeping him given the infield situation.

I’m not convinced the Yankees will trade Kiner-Falefa but I know they’ve explored it, and I know they’re ready to turn shortstop over to the kids. Correa takes the Twins out as a potential trade partner and they were the most obvious trade partner. Now the Braves, Nationals, Rockies, and maaaybe the Red Sox look like the best (only?) suitors for Kiner-Falefa now.

3. The 2023 international signing period. The annual international signing period opens this Sunday, Jan. 15th. It used to run from July 2nd to June 25th each year, but it got moved back to January during the pandemic, and now it’s staying there. The signing period is neatly confined to a single calendar year, which makes keeping track of these guys quite a bit easier.

Twice in the last three signing periods the Yankees committed most of their bonus pool money to a single player (OF Jasson Domínguez in 2019 and SS Roderick Arias in 2021). In 2020, they spread the money around and signed several good prospects to large bonuses rather than one star prospect to a massive bonus. There’s no right way to do this. Both strategies work. Just read the market, decide which players you like the best, then act accordingly.

The Yankees are poised to do the “spend most of the pool money on one player” thing again this signing period. Now that it’s only two days away, here’s a quick little primer on the Yankees and the 2023 international signing period.

Bonus pool: $5,284,000

At long last, the bonus pools have increased. MLB cried poor during the pandemic and managed to talk the MLBPA into freezing international (and draft) bonus pools at 2019 levels in 2020 and 2021. The Yankees had a $5,179,700 bonus pool last year and it is $5,284,000 this year, reports Jesse Sanchez. I guess I should shut up and be happy with a 2% increase after the last two signing periods.

Two things about the bonus pool. First, the Yankees have to forfeit $1M as part of the penalty for signing Carlos Rodón, a qualified free agent, but that happens in the 2024 signing period. This year’s bonus pools are tied to last offseason’s qualified free agents, so the Dodgers get dinged for signing Freddie Freeman. The Yankees didn’t sign a qualified free agent last offseason, so $5,284,000 is their full bonus pool. The Rodón bill comes due next year.

And second, teams can trade for bonus pool space again, according to Sanchez. They couldn’t do that the last two signing periods. Now they can add up to 60% of their original bonus pool through trades, so the Yankees can max their pool out at $8,454,400. They have a history of trading for bonus pool space and spending it. They've done it every year it was possible and I would expect the same this year.

Of course, you have to find a team willing to trade bonus pool space, but they’re out there. The Orioles used to be the go-to because they ignored international free agency and traded all their bonus pool space each year. That changed once GM Mike Elias took over a few years ago. The cheapskate Athletics could be a target this year. Maybe the always confusing Rockies.

The Yankees brought in international bonus pool money as part of larger trades (Sonny Gray and Luke Voit, specifically), and they also had success trading spare part Triple-A players for bonus pool space. Righties J.P. Feyereisen (Brewers) and Matt Wotherspoon (Orioles), and lefty Caleb Frare (White Sox), went in such trades. Here are a few potential candidates for similar deals this signing period.

IF Jesus Bastidas: Bastidas hit .240/.323/.427 (105 wRC+) with 18 homers in Double-A last season while playing second base in deference to Anthony Volpe. He’s a passable shortstop though. Surely that power caught a team’s eye, right? The Yankees are loaded with middle infield prospects, making Bastidas expendable.

C Josh Breaux: He is at best fourth on the catcher depth chart and Austin Wells isn’t far behind him. Keeping Breaux on the MLB roster as a Rule 5 Draft pick would’ve been difficult. Now he’s available to stash in Triple-A as a non-40-man roster player. Decent catchers are hard to find and Breaux seems like a prime candidate for an international bonus pool money trade.

OF Jeisson Rosario: The Yankees claimed Rosario from the Red Sox last March and were able to sneak him through waivers right away, so he’s not on the 40-man roster. He had a breakout-ish season in Double-A last year (.243/.363/.409 and 116 wRC+), but doesn’t have a Triple-A roster spot given all the recent non-roster signings. Plus he does flips.

RHP Sean Boyle, RHP Mitch Spence, LHP Matt Minnick: Good upper level arms who could have big league utility. They’re a ways down the depth chart for the Yankees. (ZiPS projects both Boyle and Spence over +1 WAR).

Theoretically, trading for international bonus pool space in the offseason will be easier than doing it during the season. The Yankees can trade Breaux when the signing period opens Sunday and still have time to sign a replacement Triple-A catcher before Spring Training. That kinda thing. Replacing him in-season, under the old July 2nd signing period, may not be so easy.

History suggests the Yankees will trade for bonus pool money and either max out their pool, or come close to it. The trades may not happen right away, they’ve got 11 months to sign players (the signing period ends Dec. 15th), but I expect them to trade for pool space.

The latest on Mayea

This is the Cuban OF Brandon Mayea signing period and, just to show you how hard it is to find reliable information on international amateurs, we still don’t have a consensus on the kid’s name. Ben Badler (subs. req’d) has Brando Mayea. Jesse Sanchez has Brandon Mayea. Those are the two best and most respected reporters on the international beat, and still no consensus. I’ll stick to calling the kid “Mayea” for the time being.

Anyway, the Yankees are expected to sign Mayea to a bonus in the $5M range. Supposedly one or two other teams came in late with big offers and tried to steal him away, but it didn’t happen. I am confident Mayea will sign with the Yankees because he is wearing Yankees gear in his profile photo on literally Major League Baseball dot com:

MLB.com ranks Mayea as the ninth best prospect in the international class, though every other publication has him as one of the 2-3 best available prospects. There is said to be a Big Four in this international class in Mayea, Dominican OF Enmanuel Bonilla (Blue Jays), Dominican SS Felnin Celesten (Mariners), and Venezuelan C Ethan Salas (Padres).

Mayea is 17 and will turn 18 in September, so he’s a year older than the typical prospect this signing period. He was eligible to sign last year, but waited until the bonus pools reset this year to maximize his bonus. A few other top prospects have done that in recent years, most notably White Sox OF Yoelqui Céspedes (Yoenis’ younger brother). Here’s video and here is MLB.com’s scouting report on Mayea, the most recent one we have:

Mayea is a premium athlete with advanced tools for his age, and the team that signs him is getting one of the most exciting players in the class.

He has the type of uncommon bat speed and power that scouts like to see. One evaluator described him as “mini Gary Sheffield” and others praised his advanced approach at the plate. He’s very aggressive in the batter’s box, and he's getting a better understanding of the strike zone.

He has a mature frame, but there is still plenty of upside because he is strong and twitchy. On defense, there’s a chance he stays in center field, but a move to a corner spot could be possible, according to scouts who have seen him play.

Hopefully that “mini Gary Sheffield” line doesn’t stick to Mayea like the ridiculous Mickey Mantle and Mike Trout comps stuck to OF Jasson Domínguez. I understand they're done to drive clicks, but there needs to be a moratorium of Hall of Fame comps for any player.

Anyway, Badler (subs. req’d) calls Mayea a “well-rounded player with a good blend of tools and game skills.” So that’s who the Yankees are giving most of their bonus pool money this year. Mayea won’t be the only player they sign (hardly). It’s more of a most their eggs in one basket approach than an all their eggs in one basket approach.

What about other prospects?

Who else might the Yankees sign this signing period? That is unclear. Baseball America (top 30), FanGraphs (top 33), and MLB.com (top 50) all have international prospect rankings and every player on every list is accounted for. They all have agreements in place even though teams are not supposed to do that. MLB doesn’t enforce the rules, so early agreements happen (all the time). Mayea is the only player connected to the Yankees in the various rankings.

Assuming the Yankees can trade for bonus pool space, they could steal a prospect away from another team. That happened with SS Alex Vargas. He had a $2.5M deal in place with the Reds in 2018, but they wanted him to wait until their bonus pool reset in 2019. The Yankees traded Adam Warren to the Mariners for bonus pool money and offered the same $2.5M without the wait, and got Vargas. (The Rays signed OF Jhon Diaz away from the Yankees like this a few years ago.)

So just because the Yankees have been connected to Mayea and only Mayea, it doesn’t mean they won’t land any other noteworthy prospects. The Yankees are pretty good at unearthing hidden gems too. RHP Luis Serna, who broke out last year, was a $50,000 signing in 2021. It will take 2-3 years before we can properly evaluate this signing class, but there will be more to it than Mayea. He’s just the biggest name and considered the best prospect.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Follow-up to what I wrote about Mike King and the bullpen earlier this week: King threw his first bullpen session of the offseason Monday, according to Sweeny Murti. That’s a good sign for King’s Spring Training and Opening Day availability, though he is coming off a major elbow injury, and I imagine his build up will be slow. Still, throwing a bullpen session is a positive sign. King is on his way back … An exhibition game against the Nationals at Nationals Park has been added to the Spring Training schedule. The Yankees wrap up their Grapefruit League schedule on Monday, March 27th, head to DC for the exhibition game Tuesday, have an off-day Wednesday, and then it’s Opening Day against the Giants at Yankee Stadium on Thursday. The Yankees were scheduled to play two exhibition games against the Blue Jays at Olympic Stadium in Montreal in 2020, but the pandemic happened. MLB hasn’t gone back to Montreal since. I hope they do it next spring and the Yankees get to go. An exhibition game at Nationals Park is whatever. Just another game. But going to Montreal, even for exhibitions, would be neat … And finally, I just want to pass along word the trade deadline is 6pm ET on Tuesday, Aug. 1st, this year, according to Joel Sherman. Why MLB pushed it back a day from July 31st (10 games on the schedule) to Aug. 1st (15 games on the schedule), I do not know, but they did. I wonder how many new Yankees we’ll see in pinstripes that week.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

JDK asks: Ohtani follow-up. Is there any chance the Yankees will trade for Ohtani for any part of this year?

Last week I said I think the chances the Yankees sign Shohei Ohtani next offseason are slim. A midseason trade is a different story and I would expect the Yankees to be all in on him at the deadline. There will be a lot of things out of their control (the Angels making Ohtani available, strong offers by other teams, etc.), but if Ohtani’s truly out there, I expect the Yankees to pursue him aggressively (they tried last year).

The roster fit is not perfect because Giancarlo Stanton occupies the DH spot and Ohtani doesn’t pitch on normal rest (so you need a six-man rotation), but the Yankees can figure that out for two months, right? Injuries can always open playing time, and even if they don’t, Ohtani is so good that you find a way to make it work for a few weeks. It’s doable. To me, “Stanton is the DH” or “he needs a six-man rotation” would not be an acceptable reason for passing on Ohtani at the deadline.

Also, several players joined the Yankees as deadline rentals, then re-signed as free agents. Zack Britton, J.A. Happ, and Chase Headley all said they fell in love with being a Yankee and came back. Happ and Headley reportedly turned down more money to do so, and Britton said he turned down opportunities to close. Maybe Ohtani will fall in love with the Yankees after a deadline trade and hang around long-term. That would be fun.

Ryan asks: Think the Guardians will make Will Brennan available, does he make sense for LF (and backup CF) and what would it cost? Baseball Trade Simulator/FG Prospect/MLB Pipeline/BP Prospects/ZIPs are not high on him. BA/Steamers are high on him. Seems like it clicks could be a Kwan like upside, if it doesn't then its more 4 OF. Skill set makes a lot of sense for the Yankees for where we are in the offseason.

I had Brennan on my list of potential targets for the Offseason Plan, but didn’t make a move to get him like I did Steven Kwan last offseason. Once or twice a week I look through minor league leaderboards just to keep tabs on players and see who’s doing what, and Brennan is always near the top of the strikeout and swinging strike rate leaderboards (in a good way).

The Guardians selected Brennan, 25, in the eighth round of the 2019 draft and he hit his way to the big leagues last year. He didn’t make his MLB debut until Sept. 21st, yet Cleveland carried him on the postseason roster. Brennan went 2-for-11 with six strikeouts in October. You may remember him striking out in a big spot in ALDS Game 4 (video). Here are Brennan’s minor league numbers the last two seasons:

He hasn’t shown a ton of power yet, but Brennan can hit. The scouting publications are split on him though, as Ryan said. Baseball America (subs. req’d) had Brennan as the No. 10 prospect in Cleveland’s system. Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) didn’t have him in the top 20. Here is part of Baseball America’s write-up (subs. req’d):

Brennan has a simple, compact swing and a disciplined approach at the plate. That combination allows him to consistently put the bat on the ball, falling into the kind of barrel-control approach favored by the organization. Brennan put up a .909 OPS against righthanders in the minors and majors in 2022, but hit .252 with no impact in same-side matchups. His power mostly plays to the gaps because he consistently hits line drives. He offers some raw power, though his profile is likely always going to be hit over power. Brennan is an above-average runner and gets the most out of his speed on the bases, where he is a threat to run. His speed, plus arm and actions give him the ability to play anywhere in the outfield. He has played mostly center field in the minors and has a chance to stay there, but his range profiles better in a corner. The former two-way player in college has an above-average arm.

Brennan's overall profile inevitably draws comparisons with Steven Kwan and makes him an intriguing player going forward … Proving he can handle upper-level lefthanders or man center field every day will likely determine his ceiling.

The Kwan comparison fits because they’re both lefty bat control guys, but Kwan’s contact rates (6.7% strikeouts and 2.7% swinging strikes in Triple-A) were significantly better than Brennan’s, and Kwan had more of a stathead cult following. Kwan is a unicorn it’s not fair to compare Brennan (or anyone) to him even though every low power contact guy is destined to get a Kwan comp now.

Anyway, Brennan is tentatively penciled in as Cleveland’s fourth outfielder, and he should get a good deal of playing time in that role because Myles Straw can’t hit and Oscar Gonzalez can’t defend. I don’t think the Guardians would make him off-limits in a trade though. They have others who could serve as fourth outfielders on the heavy side of the platoon (Will Benson, Richie Palacios, etc.), albeit without Brennan’s pure contact skills.

It’s hard to pin down Brennan’s trade value and I’m not sure what the Guardians would want in return. Prospects? Immediate MLB help? They could use bullpen help and maybe a starter if they decide to trade Zach Plesac, whose performance no longer justifies the headaches (like this, this, and this). Clarke Schmidt for Brennan? I’d rather give up someone like Jhony Brito or Yoendrys Gómez, but twist my arm and I could get on board with Schmidt.

Brennan as Plan A in left field might not be the best idea, but if the Yankees aren’t going to bring in a new left fielder, he would work as another name added to the mix alongside Oswaldo Cabrera and Aaron Hicks (and Rafael Ortega?). If Brennan forces the issue, great. Play him. If not, then Triple-A or a bench role works too.

The Yankees have a need for Brennan’s skill set – lefty contact with good defense – though the lack of power and platoon split are drawbacks. Perhaps the short porch can help with the former. As long as the cost isn’t exorbitant, I’m in favor of Brennan. Even if he doesn’t take hold of the left field job right away, the Yankees would benefit from having him in the organization.

Chris asks: So is Luis Arraez truly available? And would the Yanks have what it takes to get him? And do you think they should go after him, and if so, where should he play if they do land him? It's a real downgrade on power, though obviously he's the type of high average, good contact hitter (only 43Ks in 600 ABs) that fans are always saying they want. What about his D? Doesn't seem to be any better than average. Is his defense and range too suspect to put him in the IF in this new shiftless world? I know he's played about 13% of his MLB games in LF - don't suppose he'd fit out there?

I heard secondhand the Twins are getting close to a Pablo López trade and all I can add is Arraez and 2022 first rounder Brooks Lee are not involved as of right now. I wrote about Arraez as a possible trade target a few weeks ago, when it was first reported the Twins were open to moving him for a high-end pitcher. That was before the Carlos Rodón signing, so the calculus has changed. The Yankees can more easily trade a pitcher now.

Arraez is arguably the game’s best bat-to-ball hitter and would give the Yankees a much-needed lefty bat with on-base skills. The rest of his game is lacking (power, baserunning, defense, etc.), but I think the offensive fit is good enough that you can live with the deficiencies elsewhere. Trade for Arraez (Nestor Cortes?), put him at second base, then flip Gleyber Torres elsewhere would be the way to go, assuming moving Josh Donaldson isn’t possible.

I know he’s played some left field (326.1 MLB innings), but I really don’t want Arraez out there, so I would just hold my nose and put him at second base, the position he’s played most often in his pro career (by a lot). The Yankees have fly ball guys in the rotation and ground balls guys in the bullpen, so pull Arraez for defense late and you might be able to limit the damage he does with the glove at second base. And if his defense becomes a major problem, then they’ll have to adjust.

Torres and Arraez were within WAR’s error bars of each other last year according to FanGraphs (+3.2 vs. +2.7) and Baseball Reference (+4.4 vs. +4.1), and ZiPS (+2.9 vs. +2.3) and Steamer (+3.4 vs. +3.1) project them to be close in 2023. The shape of that production matters though, and Arraez’s lefty contact skills would have increased value to the Yankees given their lineup. One player can be a better fit for the roster than the other even if WAR says they’re equal.

Without knowing what it’ll take to pry Arraez loose, I like the roster fit even if he is an imperfect player. His skill set fits the Yankees well and it’s three years of control. I’d shoehorn him in at second base and see what happens. That’s really the only spot for him. Left field is not a realistic possibility to me. Too much ground to cover in Yankee Stadium and too many fly ball starters.

Paul asks: I really liked your recent piece about "the case for Aaron Hicks," because optimism is more fun than pessimism. Are you able to cobble together a similar case for Donaldson? Please and thanks!

I can try. The case for Josh Donaldson starts with defense. The numbers were great last season (+7 DRS and +7 OAA), the eye test was great, the track record is great, etc. etc. Donaldson is a “I’m comfortable with the ball being hit his way with the game on the line” kinda defender. He’s still really, really great at third, and it’s hard to be a zero with this level of glovework.

The case on offense is harder to put together because Donaldson showed very troubling indicators last season. Typical 36-year-old with a slowing bat stuff. Some numbers:

Strikeouts, chases, and swings and misses are way up while walks and contact quality are down. That points to an aging hitter starting his bat earlier to get it into the hitting zone on time. This is normal age-related decline stuff. Bats slow down with age and older hitters have to cheat to be on time. Donaldson’s offensive decline looks like the decline of countless others.

The case for Donaldson being a competent hitter next season is the fact that, despite the decline from 2021 to 2022, his contact quality is still better than average. Good 90th percentile exit velocity and barrel rate, and he did take walks. When Donaldson puts the ball in play, he drives it. He just no longer puts in play as often as he has throughout his career.

Donaldson hurt his shoulder last Spring Training and it lingered long enough to send him to the injured list in late May. It’s possible the shoulder injury nagged him all year, and he was finally able to let it heal over the winter. Peak Donaldson is never coming back, but perhaps a healthy shoulder allows him to stave off further decline and be an average hitter in 2023. With his glove, Donaldson with an average bat is a really good player even if the Yankees kinda need him to be better than average at the plate.

Jonathan asks: I saw that MLB Pipeline has Everson Pereira as their breakout prospect. Is it reasonable to think that he potentially could be ready for LF by mid-year? I know people are expecting Volpe to the big mid-season callup, but could it be Pereira instead/or in addition to?

I think that would be asking a lot. Pereira reached Double-A this past season and played well in his month there, hitting .283/.341/.504 (128 wRC+) with five homers, though the 30.1% strikeout rate and 15.1% swinging strike rate tell us to be patient. Those numbers aren’t an outlier either. Pereira had a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 17.2% swinging strike rate in 100 games at High-A.

That isn’t to say Pereira, who turns 22 in April, isn’t a good prospect. He is. He’s a very good prospect, in fact. There’s just more development that has to take place, and I’m not sure pushing him up to the big leagues this summer is the best thing for that development. Here’s what Baseball America (subs. req’d) wrote when they ranked Pereira the No. 4 prospect in the system earlier this offseason:

Evaluators love Pereira’s raw power, with some even going as high as a 70 on the 20-80 scale for his ability to lose balls to the deepest recesses of parks during batting practice. His swing-and-miss tendencies caused that power to play down in games, as did his propensity for hitting the ball on the ground early in the season. The Yankees tweaked Pereira’s bat path to make his swing more flyball-oriented. Still, scouts point to Pereira’s chase rate and timing issues that could limit his ceiling to no more than an average hitter. Defensively, Pereira has a chance to stick in center field but could also move to a corner, and his above-average arm strength would fit nicely in right field. Some scouts would like to see Pereira become more accurate on his throws. He’s an above-average runner who gets excellent jumps in the outfield … He’ll get another test at the upper levels in 2023 and has the ceiling of an above-average regular outfielder with a profile leaning slightly toward power over hit.

The jump in talent and competition from High-A to Double-A is the largest in the minors. Pereira will start 2023 back in Double-A, get another 300 plate appearances or so, and if all goes well, he’ll get the bump up to Triple-A. I think asking him to go from Double-A to Triple-A to MLB quick enough to be a big league option this summer is setting him up to fail. Pereira requires patience and a 2023 arrival is likely a year too early for him.

John asks: I saw a video from Twitter user Playoff Tanaka (this has been around the Internet for years) showing every single Aaron Judge called strike that was low and not a strike. Did he have his lowest amount of called strike 3’s that were low? And did that lead to him posting career highs in both home runs and batting average?

Here is the video. It is every low strike called against Judge since his MLB debut. Not all of them are egregious (some look like strikes but are balls according to Statcast) but a lot of them are. This gives me an excuse to update the numbers on Judge’s called strike rate on low pitches. This is his called strike rate on pitches taken below the zone:

• 2017: 23.6% (MLB average: 20.1%)
• 2018: 29.9% (MLB average: 19.8%)
• 2019: 24.4% (MLB average: 19.4%)
• 2020: 31.7% (MLB average: 20.6%)
• 2021: 27.2% (MLB average: 19.4%)
• 2022: 26.7% (MLB average: 19.4%)

Business as usual. Judge still has an inordinate number of pitches below the zone called strikes. Hopefully this stops when the automatic strike zone arrives, though that is at least a year away, and possibly more. Judge just has to live with the unfair bottom of the zone because he’s so tall and umpires are unable (or unwilling) to recalibrate their strike zone in real time. It is what it is.

Matt asks: Not a Yankee focused question but can you break down the Correa deal and how it is calculated for AAV with the option years as structures? Do the Twins have to include the options in their current AAV calculations, or is it just the 6 guaranteed years not the possible 10 years? I know there were new rules around contract AAV when a player is traded etc.

Club options and vesting options are not guaranteed years and thus aren’t included in the luxury tax calculation. Only buyouts of those options are included. All things considered, Correa’s deal is pretty straightforward for luxury tax purposes. The six-year, $200M contract carries a $33.3M luxury tax hit, and the option years have no buyouts. Here is the salary breakdown:

• 2023-25: $36M per year ($33.3M luxury tax hit per year)
• 2026: $31.5M ($33.3M luxury tax hit)
• 2027: $30.5M ($33.3M luxury tax hit)
• 2028: $30M ($33.3M luxury tax hit)
• 2029: $25M club option (vests with 575 PA in 2028) ($25M luxury tax hit)
• 2030: $20M club option (vests with 550 PA in 2029) ($30M luxury tax hit)
• 2031: $15M club option (vests with 525 PA in 2030) ($15M luxury tax hit)
• 2032: $10M club option (vests with 502 PA in 2031) ($10M luxury tax hit)

Luxury tax hits are now recalculated based on the actual money remaining on the contract at the time of a trade. In the past, the luxury tax stayed the same. Trade for Correa during the 2026-27 offseason and you’re taking on two guaranteed years at $60.5M ($30.5M in 2027 and $30M in 2028), so that’s a $30.25M luxury tax hit, lower than the original $33.3M.

Correa’s contract is very team-friendly. It’s a front-loaded six-year deal with four (!) club options. The biggest salaries are paid through Correa’s peak, and the Twins can walk away after his age 33 season. And if the leg injury that spooked the Giants and Mets continues to be a non-issue, the Twins can keep him through his 37 season at affordable and continually decreasing salaries. It’s a great contract for Minnesota, and although it’s not what Correa had lined up earlier this winter, it’s still $200M. Can’t really complain about that.

Dave asks: Does MLB ever do the “sign a player for a day so he can retire” or is that just a thing in other sports? Because I think we should campaign for a Brett Gardner one day contract.

Hideki Matsui did it with the Yankees! A hero on Reddit put together a list of MLB players who signed one-day contracts to retire with a team. It includes Hall of Famers like Roy Halladay (Blue Jays), Iván Rodríguez (Rangers), and Frank Thomas (White Sox), and also guys like Chone Figgins (Angels), Carlos Peña (Rays), and Ryan Vogelsong (Giants).

Gardner finished his career as a Yankee and these one-day contracts go to players who left to play elsewhere, but who cares? It’s ceremonial. Bring Brett back for a day with or without the one-day contract, and give him a little pregame farewell ceremony. I would be 100% cool with it. I assume we’ll have to wait until Old Timers’ Day to see Gardner at Yankee Stadium again though, or maybe he’ll throw out the ceremonial first pitch in the postseason or something.

(As for a “what’s Gardner up to these days?” update, he was spotted at the airport in Atlanta last weekend. Looks like he can still play. The Yankees need a left fielder. Hmmm.)

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