December 30th, 2022: Diaz, Durbin, Profar, Judge, Mailbag

The final post of 2022. Feels like just yesterday that the calendar flipped to 2022 and we were all sitting here wondering when the lockout would end. I gotta tell you, content-wise, I have no idea how I would’ve gotten through the pandemic shutdown and the lockout with the posting schedule I kept at RAB. Maybe I would’ve resorted to running Retro Week posts week after week. I dunno. Anyway, let’s get to today’s post with 2023 right around the corner.

1. Luetge traded, Fernandez still in limbo. The Yankees resolved half of their outstanding roster moves earlier this week. Last week Junior Fernandez and Lucas Luetge were designated for assignment to open 40-man roster spots for Tommy Kahnle and Carlos Rodon. Luetge was traded to the Braves on Wednesday. Fernandez apparently remains in DFA limbo.

Let’s start with Fernandez. Once a player is DFAed, the team has seven days to trade him, release him, or waive him. Wednesday was Day 7 and yet there’s been no announcement for Fernandez. The waiver period is 48 hours and I was under the impression the 48 hours had to take place within the seven days. I could be wrong, and the Yankees could have put Fernandez on waivers Wednesday, in which case they will expire Friday. I dunno. We’ll find out soon (I think?).

As for Luetge, he heads to an Atlanta team that figures to contend for a World Series title. He is tentatively penciled in as the third lefty in their bullpen behind A.J. Minter and Dylan Lee (2021 postseason hero Tyler Matzek had Tommy John surgery in October), so Luetge will likely fill the same role he filled with the Yankees the last two years*. I wish him well, except during those three games the Yankees visit Truist Park next year (Aug. 14th to 16th) and he faces Anthony Rizzo.

* Fun fact: Luetge was the only player to spend every day on the Yankees’ active MLB roster the last two seasons. Everyone else was taken off the active roster at some point (injured list, COVID list, demotion to the minors, traded, etc.).

The Yankees received righty Indigo Diaz and infielder Caleb Durbin, two non-40-man roster minor leaguers, in the Luetge trade. Two players! The fact the Yankees received two actual players rather than the usual cash or a player to be named later, and used the full seven-day DFA period to make the trade, suggests multiple teams were after Luetge and the Yankees sifted through several offers.

Diaz, 24, is the more notable prospect of the two, not that he’s especially notable. The 2019 27th round pick was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft earlier this month after throwing 49.2 relief innings with a 3.08 ERA (4.27 FIP) and big strikeout (29.6%), walk (14.6%), and swinging strike (14.9%) rates in Double-A in 2022. He’s a career reliever. Hasn’t started a game since he was at Michigan State.

Baseball America and MLB.com had Diaz in the 20-30 range in their top 30 Braves prospects lists before the trade, though trades and graduations have thinned Atlanta’s system the last 18 months, so it's not an especially deep system right now (Diaz did not slide into MLB.com’s top 30 Yankees prospects list). Here’s a chunk of MLB.com’s free scouting report (here’s video):

Diaz is a 6-foot-5 right-hander who profiles as a reliever only. He can get his fastball up to 97 mph, but typically sits around 92-93 mph. It plays up because of its carry in the zone and his extension coming down the mound. His power breaking ball can get slurvy, and it has good depth, but because of the mid-80s velocity, it plays more like a slider … He doesn’t need pinpoint command to fill a prominent role in a big league bullpen, something he should be able to do once he shows he can handle the upper levels of the Minors.

A reliever with carry on his fastball and a breaking ball that needs work? Yeah, Diaz sounds very Yankees-like to me. The Yankees currently have an inordinate number of pitchers who are either established at Triple-A, or are Triple-A ready based on their Double-A experience. Diaz adds another name to that mix. This isn’t a bad thing, the more arms the better, but a few guys hoping to open 2023 in Triple-A figure to get numbers crunched down to Double-A, possibly including Diaz.

Durbin, 23 in February, was Atlanta’s 14th round pick in 2021. He struck out 10 times in three years at Washington University, a Division III school in St. Louis. In 439 plate appearances that’s a 2.3% strikeout rate. This past season Durbin slashed .249/.369/.388 (116 wRC+) with 10.5% strikeouts and 12.6% walks in 73 Low-A games. He got humbled a bit when the Braves moved him up to High-A (.220/.306/.330 and 79 wRC+ with 12.1% strikeouts in 32 games).

Durbin is a stereotypical scrappy player. He’s undersized (listed at 5-foot-8 and 175 lbs.), he has little power (eight homers in 2022, though he was described to me as having 20 power on the 20-80 scouting scale), he steals bases (28-for-31 in Low-A), he gets hit by a lot of pitches (19 in 2022), he doesn’t strike out, and he plays very hard and hustles for everything. Durbin checks every “scrappy” box there is.

“He’s the scrappiest, grittiest guy you’ll ever meet in your life,” Victor Scott, a summer league teammate of Durbin’s, told Clara Richards in July. “I knew who he was before, but he definitely surprised me in our first game. I think he had like three hits or something like that. I was like, ‘Dude, okay.’ I see why there’s hype around him.”

A right-handed hitter, Durbin has played mostly second and third bases as a pro, and a little bit of shortstop as well. Fair or not, late rounders with little power get put in the “prove it at every level” bucket and yeah, that’s where Durbin is. Maybe he can become a contact-heavy utility guy down the road a la Ronald Torreyes. If he turns into more, great! But that's a reasonable projection for a guy you’re not going to find on a prospect list.

The Yankees signed Luetge off the scrap heap and he gave them two solid seasons as a low-leverage reliever, then they traded him for two lottery tickets. Not bad. Not bad at all. The 40-man roster is full and I would think Albert Abreu and, if he doesn’t have a fourth option, Deivi Garcia are next in line to get the ax whenever space is needed. Good luck in Atlanta, Lucas. I hope they give you one of those long-term extensions they give everyone.

2. Scouting the Free Agent Market: Jurickson Profar. Free agents and trade candidates are coming off the board and the Yankees are running out of avenues to add an impact left fielder. Last week Brian Cashman said he’s comfortable opening next season with Aaron Hicks in left, but what’s he supposed to say about a guy with three years remaining on his contract?

"We are prepared to go with what we have internally. Aaron Hicks has rehabbed his knee from the injury in the postseason and he's doing really well. He'll be ready to go in Spring Training," Cashman said last week (video). "Obviously Oswaldo Cabrera was fantastic in his little audition of outfield work. Those are the primary defaults with (Estevan) Florial. Ultimately, we'll stay engaged and see where it takes us. We know there's an area there we'd love to upgrade if we can, but that doesn't mean that we will."

The Michael Conforto signing and Daulton Varsho trade took two of the better left field options out of play. Bryan Reynolds is available but the Pirates are asking for the moon. Max Kepler is definitely available. The Cardinals may move someone. Maybe the Diamondbacks will as well, even after trading Varsho. Here are the best available free agent outfielders by projected 2023 WAR. These are actual outfielders only (i.e. not Trey Mancini, Dominic Smith, etc.):

1. Jurickson Profar: +1.4 WAR
2. A.J. Pollock: +1.0 WAR
3. Tommy Pham: +1.0 WAR
4. David Peralta: +0.9 WAR
5. Andrew McCutchen: +0.7 WAR

The ideal left field addition would be a left-handed hitter (or switch-hitter) who doesn’t strike out excessively, can put the ball in the seats, and has enough range to cover the big left field gap in Yankee Stadium. How many of those guys exist in the game today? And how many of those are available? Not many, so the Yankees may have to compromise.

At least according to projected 2023 WAR, Profar is the best available free agent outfielder, and he would check at least one of those boxes for the Yankees. Does he make sense at this point? Let’s dive in and take a look.

Background

A decade ago Profar was the No. 1 prospect in baseball. Every scouting publication (Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, etc.) had him as a top 10 prospect going into 2012 and the No. 1 prospect going into 2013. Profar was a standout, slashing .281/.368/.452 (127 wRC+) with a 14.1% strikeout rate as a 19-year-old in a full season in Double-A in 2012.

The Rangers gave Profar a September call up that year and, at 19 years and 195 days on the day of his MLB debut, he was the youngest position player to play in the big leagues since, well, Bryce Harper that April. But before Harper it was Adrian Beltre in 1998. Profar began 2013 back in Triple-A (service time manipulation) before being called up in May and disappointing: .234/.308/.336 (75 wRC+) in 85 games.

Profar missed the entire 2014 and 2015 seasons with a major shoulder injury. He returned to the big leagues in May 2016 – fun fact: Profar was called up to replace Rougned Odor, who was suspended for punching Jose Bautista – and didn’t hit, and spent most of 2017 in Triple-A. The Rangers eventually traded Profar to the Athletics in Dec. 2018.

Padres GM A.J. Preller originally signed Profar during his time as Rangers international scouting director*, and he traded for him in Dec. 2019. Now 29, Profar was mostly productive his three years with San Diego, including hitting .243/.331/.391 (110 wRC+) in 2022. He declined his $7.5M player option ($1M buyout, so a $6.5M decision) to become a free agent earlier this offseason.

* Preller has a thing for players he signed as international free agents. Profar, Jorge Alfaro, and Nomar Mazara were all with the Padres this past season. He still has time to bring Odor and Martin Perez to San Diego too. Maybe not this offseason, but eventually.

Offense

As noted, Profar slashed .243/.331/.391 (110 wRC+) this past season. He slugged 15 homers and had very strong strikeout (15.7%), walk (11.1%), and swinging strike (7.4%) rates. Profar averaged 4.23 pitches per plate appearance in 2022. That’s Aaron Judge (4.27) and Juan Soto (4.18) territory. The guy makes pitchers work. He gets his money’s worth in the box.

Profar is a switch-hitter who was shockingly bad against lefties in 2021 (.154/.247/.231 and 39 wRC+), though that’s an outlier compared to the rest of his career. His platoon split has historically been small and slightly favors his right side. That was true in 2022: .237/.322/.395 (108 wRC+) against righties and .259/.352/.382 (115 wRC+) against lefties.

Similar to Aaron Hicks, Profar has a different setup and a different swing from each side of the plate. His lefty swing is a bit more fluid and aggressive (and, frankly, more natural looking) while his righty swing is choppy. Here are representative hacks from late 2022 (GIF link):

That’s a big yet controlled swing from the left side of the plate. As a righty, Profar scrunches down during his load, then cuts off his follow through. The two swings have different results too. Profar swings and misses less as a righty, though he also makes weaker contact and puts the ball on the ground more often. Lefty Profar drives the ball more, not that he’s some exit velocity god. The 2021-22 numbers:

Profar’s 90th percentile exit velocity, a number that is more predictive than average exit velocity, was 102.3 mph in 2022. That’s his combined number as a lefty and righty hitter and it’s a tick below the 103.8 mph league average. Profar is not a contact quality guy. He generates offense with excellent plate discipline and contact more than hard-hit ability.

That isn’t to say Profar is powerless. He did hit 15 homers this year, including 12 left-handed, and Statcast says he would’ve had 20 homers had he played all his games in Yankee Stadium. Profar wouldn’t play all 162 games in the Bronx, obviously. That just goes to show he could get a boost from a short porch, which, duh. That goes for every hitter, especially lefties.

Could the Yankees help Profar improve his contact quality? They’ve done it with Oswaldo Cabrera and Gio Urshela in recent years, among others, so it can be done. The Yankees tweaked their swings, got them to use their lower halves more, and the ball started flying. Can they do it with Profar? Can they do it in a way that preserves the plate discipline and contact ability? I dunno.

Profar turns 30 in February, so there’s a chance he is what he is, and that’s an average-ish left fielder offensively. The plate discipline is really excellent, Profar makes good swing decisions and wears down pitchers, but his power is light for a corner outfield spot. The upside is something like .270/.380/.440. The downside is closer to .227/.329/.320, which is what Profar hit in 2021.

Base running

Here’s the thing about Profar: he has tremendous plate discipline and contact ability, some of the very best in the league, and he’s just okay at everything else, including running the bases. Some numbers the last two seasons:

• Stolen bases: 15-for-21 (71%)
• FanGraphs base running: -3.3 runs
• Baseball Prospectus base running: +4.2 runs
• Extra-base taken rate: 53% (MLB average is 41%)
• Home-to-first time: 4.50 seconds (MLB average is 4.45 seconds)
• Sprint speed: 26.5 feet per second (MLB average is 27.0 feet per second)

Profar takes the extra base (first-to-third on a single, etc.) at a high clip and that’s about it. He’s not much of a stolen base threat, he’s not fast according to Statcast’s metrics, etc. Profar isn’t a detriment on the bases and he won’t jam them up like a slow-footed catcher, but he’s also not going to impact the game much with his legs. Not much to see here, really.

Defense

As recently as 2020, Profar played five different positions in a season, though he has settled in as a full-time left fielder. He played left field exclusively in 2022, and in 2021 he moved between the three outfield spots and saw spot duty at second base and first base. Profar has not played shortstop or third base since 2018.

For what it’s worth Profar says he’s comfortable playing anywhere, though Padres manager Bob Melvin said they like him best in left field. From AJ Cassavell last Spring Training:

"I'm a player that can play wherever," Profar said. "For me, it really doesn't matter. When I get in the box, it's about hitting. When I get in the field, it's about fielding."

…

"That's what we're doing right now," Melvin said late last week. "We're focusing mostly on left for him right now. We're not done with spring, either. You look at the bench, we're still trying to add some pieces.

"But I think he's most comfortable in left field. I know he's looking to increase the production that we've seen in the past, offensively. He's come in in great shape. He looks stronger. He's hit some balls a long way in batting practice. He's driven to have a much better year than he did last year."

The numbers say Profar’s best position is left field and by a good margin (his numbers on the infield are horrible), though they aren’t all in agreement: +6 DRS, +8.3 UZR, and -7 OAA the last three seasons. Couldn’t be +7 OAA just to make this part easy, huh? Sigh. The OAA breakdown says Profar has the most trouble on balls hit into the gap. He doesn’t get to those. He’s generally okay going toward the line though, as well as coming in and going back.

Statcast estimates catch success rate based on exit velocity and launch angle and all that, and Profar had an 84% success rate against an 86% estimated success rate the last three seasons in left field. We can dig a little deeper though. Here are Profar’s success rates on batted balls of various difficulty ranges:

• 0% to 20% estimated success rate: 0% Profar vs. 7% estimated
• 20% to 40% estimated success rate: 17% Profar vs. 32% estimated
• 40% to 60% estimated success rate: 29% Profar vs. 49% estimated
• 60% to 80% estimated success rate: 73% Profar to 72% estimated
• 80% to 100% estimated success rate: 98% Profar vs. 98% estimated

On batted balls with at least a 60% estimated catch rate, Profar’s fine. He’ll convert those into outs at a league average rate. Anything below that, forget it. He’s much worse than the average left fielder. That is a fancy way of saying Profar catches everything he should catch and not much more, at least according to Statcast. DRS and UZR are a bit more favorable.

Profar is still relatively new to left field. He’s played just over 2,000 career innings in left, or the equivalent of 225 games, so not even two full season’s worth. It’s possible his defense will improve as he gains more experience and learns the nuances of the position. The numbers say Profar isn’t fast, though improved reads and routes can go a long way.

At this point I think you have to consider Profar primarily a left fielder who can slide over to center and right if needed, and play the infield in an emergency and an emergency only. I think his days as a super utility guy are over. His numbers on the infield are terrible and he hasn’t played on the dirt much lately. Profar’s an outfielder now. A left fielder, specifically.

An okay left fielder in Yankee Stadium is not ideal, but the Yankees threw Cabrera and even Matt Carpenter out there at times this year. That said, going into the season with an underwhelming defensive left fielder as Plan A is different than using Cabrera and Carpenter in emergencies. It’s likely Profar is a notch or two below the caliber of defender the Yankees want in left field.

Injury history

As noted earlier, Profar missed the entire 2014 and 2015 seasons with a significant shoulder injury that eventually required surgery. He attempted to rehab a torn labrum in 2014, felt good and started a throwing program in the weeks leading up to Spring Training 2015, then it fully gave out and he needed surgery. Profar lost his age 21-22 seasons to injury. That’s rough.

"It's a very personal decision," Rangers then-GM Jon Daniels told T.R. Sullivan about the decision to try to rehab the shoulder first. "Everybody collaborated, the medical staff, the baseball staff, player, family, agent. Ultimately, it's up to the player. His body, ultimately his call. We wanted to make sure he had as much information as possible. This isn't Tommy John surgery when it's black and white. There are shades of gray and he made the decision."

The good news is Profar has been healthy since the shoulder surgery. He spent some time on the COVID list two years ago and he missed a week this year with a concussion suffered in a nasty outfield collision (this one), and that’s it. Profar’s been healthy as a horse since the shoulder surgery otherwise. No muscle pulls, no missed time with occasional soreness in the shoulder, nothing.

Contract projections

The crazy spending period appears to be over. The last batch of free agent signings (Conforto, Nathan Eovaldi, J.D. Martinez, Jean Segura, Justin Turner, etc.) have been downright reasonable. Contract inflation really only applied to the top of the market this offseason. Everyone else is signing deals more in line with the last few years.

It has been a quiet offseason for Profar. The only update to his MLBTR archive involves some interest from the Astros before they re-signed Michael Brantley. That’s it. The Astros know what they’re doing, so I guess their interest in Profar is a reason to believe in him? Anyway, here are the contract projections:

• ESPN: 2 years, $24M ($12M per year)
• FanGraphs: 3 years, $30M ($10M per year)
• MLBTR: 2 years, $20M ($10M per year)

Yeah, 2-3 years around $10M a year sounds about right. Profar left $6.5M on the table when he declined his player option to become a free agent and he should have no trouble beating that. There was a time when he looked like a potential $100M+ player. That time is no more.

A thing worth noting: Profar is a Scott Boras client and Boras usually doesn’t do those little 2-3 year deals for his prime-aged players. I reckon a two-year deal for Profar is more likely to be a two-year deal with an opt out that allows him to give free agency another shot next offseason, just in case he has a big season in 2023. That’s his best hope for a significant free agent contract.

Does he make sense for the Yankees?

The Yankees don’t have great left field options right now so yes, Profar’s a fit in that sense. But is this a guy you want to give multiple years? A 110-ish wRC+ hitter with average-ish defense and base running is an average player in left field. Average isn’t bad, and you can argue Profar has the potential to be better, but average isn’t moving the needle much for the Yankees. It’s not hard to imagine Profar being no better than Cabrera and Hicks in the aggregate in 2023.

Profar’s plate discipline and contact ability are excellent. The rest of the package is kinda blah, and he’s old enough now that the former No. 1 prospect shine has fully worn off. The Yankees have had interest in Profar in the past and I acquired him as part of my Offseason Plan (twice), but that was a few years ago now, when it was reasonable to think Profar was on the upswing. He’s about to turn 30. He can get better, sure, but it’s not crazy to think this is what he is either.

I am indifferent about Profar more than I am staunchly against him. If the Yankees sign him, fine. I would be underwhelmed and wish they’d done better while acknowledging they (probably) improved a bit. Given the alternatives, the Yankees and Profar would be a marriage of convenience. They aren’t soulmates.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. The Marlins signed Jean Segura to a two-year, $17M contract earlier this week and I bring that up only to note it likely takes them out of the running for Gleyber Torres. Miami has a lot of moving parts on their infield (supposedly the Red Sox want Joey Wendle, one of Chaim Bloom’s former players with the Rays) and they could still make moves that create an opening for Gleyber, but when A and B first need to happen so C can happen, I’m inclined to bet against it. We know the Marlins wanted Torres at the deadline. There were no rumors of their continued interest this offseason though, and the Segura signing likely closes the door on a Gleyber to Miami trade (not that I’m especially eager to move him) … Jayson Stark’s annual strange but true columns (subs. req’d) were published this week and he dedicated an entire section to Aaron Judge. There’s an insane stat buried in there: Judge homered against 19 different teams in 2022. The Yankees only played 20 different teams! They didn’t play the NL West or the four non-Mets NL East teams, and Judge managed to go deep against all but one opponent. The one team Judge spared? The Cardinals. He went 5-for-13 (.385) with a double when the Yankees visited St. Louis for three games from Aug. 5th to 7th. Judge just missed a grand slam that series too (video). He managed to go deep against the Brewers (twice), Cubs (twice), Pirates (twice), and Reds (once) despite the Yankees playing no more than four games against those teams. Alas and alack, homering against 19 different teams is not the single-season record. Mark McGwire managed to go deep against 24 (!) different teams in 1997 (remember, the Diamondbacks and (Devil) Rays weren’t around yet). McGwire got traded from the Athletics to the Cardinals at the 1997 deadline, so he played several months in each league and could pad his total. Judge going deep against 19 different teams is tied for the second most with 1998 McGwire and 2001 Barry Bonds, and I will note the Astros were still in the National League back then. Bonds and McGwire had that one extra intraleague opponent to add to their total. Regardless, homering against 19 of 20 unique opponents is bananas. With the new more balanced schedule kicking in next year, I look forward to Judge hitting homers against each of the other 29 teams … And finally, Evan Drellich (subs. req’d) has an update on talks between MLB and the MLBPA about the new minor league Collective Bargaining Agreement. Long story short, the MLBPA has made a series of proposals and MLB will make a counterproposal after New Years, and things are moving at the expected pace. Unlike last winter’s lockout, the two sides are making an effort to keep negotiations out of the public eye, though that could change if things get contentious. Spring Training is seven weeks away, so the clock is ticking. Non-40-man roster players can still report to camp and play the minor league season without a CBA, but working without a contract is not ideal.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Mike asks: I think the Giants may be sellers after the Correa fiasco, missing on Judge and more. There’s a period of time you can’t trade a player after they sign a new contract - does that rule pertain to people that accept a QO? Could the Giants trade Joc Pederson during the off season? If he could be traded, would you want him in left? Any of the left handed hitting outfielders in SF ones you’d like, they’ve got a few?

Players signed as free agents can not be traded until June 15th without their consent and yes, that applies to free agents who accept the qualifying offer. Pederson technically has full no-trade protection right now. 

Joc still mashes righties (.278/.356/.538 and 149 wRC+ in 2022) and is a short porch friendly lefty pull hitter, but his defense is bordering on unplayable these days. The last two years he’s at -16 DRS and -12 OAA in left field, and the eye test agrees. He’s bad out there. Not sure that’ll fly in Yankee Stadium’s left field.

The Giants are currently on track to play Mitch Haniger in right, and let Michael Conforto and the Pederson/Austin Slater platoon share left field and DH. San Francisco platoons heavily – heavily – and they have three other lefty hitting outfielders they may consider moving.

Luis Gonzalez: Gonzalez, 27, is an up-and-down guy more than an everyday player. He hit .254/.323/.360 (95 wRC+) in 350 plate appearances this year, including .272/.346/.404 (113 wRC+) against righties, with iffy contact quality and average-ish defense. The career 119 wRC+ in Triple-A is solid more than hidden gem worthy. I dunno. Doesn’t seem like Gonzalez is much to get excited about. He an optionable fourth outfielder type, basically.

LaMonte Wade Jr.: Wade’s long been a stathead favorite. He’s always had strong contact rates and plate discipline, and two offseasons ago he revamped his swing and got the ball elevated more. That led to a .268/.341/.518 (129 wRC+) line against righties in 2021, and so many clutch late-inning hits that they called him Late Night LaMonte.

Persistent knee trouble limited Wade, 29 next month, to 251 scattered plate appearances this year, and his .225/.329/.401 (111 wRC+) line against righties probably isn’t good enough to carry defense that has rated a bit below average in the outfield. Wade has a good deal of first base experience and may wind up there next year given San Francisco’s outfield situation.

When healthy, Wade can be a fun and productive player, though even 2021 Wade needed a platoon partner (10 wRC+ vs. LHP!) and wasn’t an asset in the field. The Giants are smart but they’re not infallible (the Yankees stole Wandy Peralta from them last year), so maybe they’ll sell low on Wade after a down year. Even with the flaws, Wade can be pretty good.

Mike Yastrzemski: Carl’s grandson had a big 60-game pandemic season and has been closer to average the two years since: .219/.308/.424 (102 wRC+). Like almost everyone on the Giants, Yastrzemski needs a platoon partner. His numbers the last two seasons:

• vs. RHP: .234/.326/.467 (117 RC+)
• vs. LHP: .174/.252/.194 (55 wRC+)

Yastrzemski is a good defender (+10 DRS and +8 OAA the last two years) and, as a pull heavy lefty, he would mix well with the short porch and maybe gain a few hits with a shift going away. The downside is Yastrzemski turns 33 next summer, so he’s not some young kid, plus he is San Francisco’s center fielder at the moment. They need him for the defense.

I know the Giants got calls about Yastrzemski two years ago and came to the conclusion he was more valuable to them on their roster than as a trade chip because no one was offering a hefty package for a 30-year-old with a limited track record. Feels like that’s still true. What are you giving up for a soon-to-be 33-year-old who’s only an average platoon hitter? How valuable are three years of control at this age anyway?

San Francisco’s thing is a deep roster and maximizing lineups with platoons and swing planes matchups and all that. There’s no indication they are open to moving an outfielder(s) following the Conforto and Haniger signings (and Pederson’s return). Still, given the trade and free agent markets, the Yankees should call and ask about Yastrzemski first and Wade second (Gonzalez doesn’t do much for me). Neither player is perfect, but they’re better than standing pat.

(If the Yankees trade for him, no one's gonna hate Yastrzemski because of his name, right? Carl hasn’t played in close to 40 years now, and it’s not like the Red Sox were more successful than the Yankees during his career.)

Alex asks: Having thought a bit about all the obvious Yankees LF targets and having found them either too hard to get (Reynolds) or too uninspiring (David Peralta/Max Kepler), I was looking at some rosters around the league and stumbled on Jake Fraley. I don’t know much about him beyond the surface-level stats, but haven’t seen him mentioned. Given that the Reds just signed Wil Myers and that they have a bunch of other guys in the OF, could he be a sneaky, not too expensive option?

Fraley, 27, has already been traded twice (Rays to Mariners in the Mike Zunino trade, Mariners to Reds in the Eugenio Suarez/Jesse Winker trade), and I don’t know if that’s a “other teams covet him” thing or a “his team wants to move him” thing. He hit all throughout the minors and showed enough with the glove, though his 2021 prospect scouting reports (the last time he was prospect-eligible) point to a future as a ‘tweener:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): “Fraley is either going to have to hit better or find a way to stay in center field to have a steady role in the majors.”
• FanGraphs: “Fraley is officially in tweenersville … I think enough puzzle pieces with power are floating around that he ends up a Ben Gamel style bench outfielder.”

Fraley has a nice-looking swing and he hit .259/.344/.468 (122 wRC+) in 247 plate appearances around a knee injury this season, including .277/.361/.500 (134 wRC+) in 216 plate appearances against righties. He drew walks (10.5%), he had roughly league average strikeout (21.9%) and swinging strike (10.9%) rates, and the numbers say his outfield defense was about average. The contact quality was okay at best:

• Average exit velocity: 85.1 mph (MLB average: 88.6 mph)
• 90th percentile exit velocity: 102.5 mph (MLB average: 103.8 mph)
• Hard-hit rate: 27.4% (MLB average: 38.2%)
• Barrel rate: 7.3% (MLB average: 7.5%)

Fraley has over 350 batted balls in the big leagues* and I’m not sure that contact quality translates to a consistent .460-ish slugging percentage. That said, Fraley pulls nearly half his balls in play and had a 41.4% ground ball rate the last two years. The short porch is calling. I wish the underlying contact quality data was better though. Hitting the ball hard is an important skill and he lacks it.

* Davy Andrews just wrote about the predictive value of 300 batted balls worth of exit velocity data. Turns out it’s pretty predictive, though he looked at it in terms of a single rookie season. Fraley’s are spread across multiple seasons.

Michael Ajeto broke down some slight mechanical changes Fraley made last year, so maybe his strong 2022 is a function of his new swing. Then again, the adjustments did not translate to improved hard-hit ability. Throughout his career Fraley has shown strong plate discipline while keeping the swings and misses to a minimum. He’s just never hit the ball hard.

Without digging into Fraley any deeper, I’m skeptical 2022 represents his true talent level, though that is just the result of my 15 minutes of research. There’s definitely a batted ball placement skill we haven’t yet figured out how to measure and maybe Fraley has it (Jeff McNeil definitely does). For now, I’ll say I would prefer a player whose underlying data better supports the surface stats.

Adam asks: We’re running out of potentially available LFers, what about Adell?

Similar to Jarred Kelenic, I don’t think the Yankees could go into 2023 with Jo Adell penciled in as the everyday left fielder. Apparently the Angels agree, hence the trade for Hunter Renfroe to play alongside Mike Trout and Taylor Ward in the outfield. Adell has a bit of a Quad-A thing going …

• MLB career: .215/.259/.356 (68 wRC+) with 34.8 K% and 4.7 BB% in 557 PA
• Triple-A career: .279/.347/.545 (124 wRC+) with 29.0 K% and 8.4 BB% in 860 PA

… and he probably needs to be in the big leagues full-time at this point. He’s done all he needs to do in Triple-A and a fourth (!) straight season at that level won’t accomplish much. Adell needs to be challenged by big league pitchers to improve, not continue to beat up on Triple-A pitchers. The Angels don’t seem willing to give him those big league at-bats. Can’t say I blame them.

I think the best thing for Adell is going to a team like the Pirates or Tigers. A rebuilding team that isn’t prioritizing wins and losses, and is willing to give him 600 plate appearances and live with the growing pains. Adell was one of the 10 best prospects in the game not too long ago, but he hasn’t shown much of anything in the big leagues yet, and his defense has been shockingly bad.

Adell turns only 24 in April and he has a minor league option left, so if the Yankees can buy low on him (Deivi Garcia for Adell?) and see whether the minor league hitting coordinators can turn his career around, go for it. But trading for him and plopping him into left field? Can’t see it. The Yankees need a bona fide big league bat there and Adell a) isn’t that right now, and b) hasn’t shown many signs of becoming that.

Steve asks: I’m sure other people have made this connection but…Mets have a full time 3B now, so any thought of an Eduardo Escobar trade that might make sense?

I assume the Carlos Correa deal will get done. Steve Cohen backed himself into a bit of a corner when he told Jon Heyman, “We needed one more thing and this is it ... This puts us over the top,” before the contract was official. Smarter people than me have said that gives Scott Boras and Correa strong footing to file (and win) a grievance should the Mets back out. So I bet it gets done.

And once it gets done, Escobar will either get traded, or he’ll become the Mets’ version of DJ LeMahieu as an infield rover. Escobar is stretched at second base already and the anti-shift rules won’t help, but I’m sure he can handle it for nine innings (or less if they pull him for defense late) when Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander, two strikeout/fly ball pitchers, are on the mound.

I liked Escobar once upon a time and I wanted to acquire him as part of last year’s Offseason Plan, but couldn’t make it work. He turns 34 next month and I think enough cracks showed in his game this past season that staying away is reasonable. For starters, his third base defense really went in the tank. It was below-average the last few years, then it slipped to -11 DRS and -7 OAA in 2022. Having watched enough Mets games, yeah, the eye test agrees.

Also, Escobar is a switch-hitter with a platoon split, and he’s more productive on the light side of the platoon. Some numbers:

2022 vs. RHP: .238/.305/.448 (99 wRC+) with 23.6 K% and 8.9 BB%
2022 vs. LHP: .295/.340/.537 (130 wRC+) with 12.6 K% and 5.7 BB%

2021-22 vs. RHP: .235/.300/.420 (97 wRC+) with 23.8 K% and 87 BB%
2021-22 vs. LHP:  .277/.318/.527 (130 wRC+) with 18.3 K% and 5.4 BB%

Being average against righties and bludgeoning lefties can be useful, sure, but I feel like the Yankees are at the point where they need a legitimately above-average lefty hitter. Average probably won’t cut it. And even if Escobar’s defense bounces back to pre-2022 levels, you’ve still got a subpar defender with an average bat on the heavy side of the platoon. Meh.

Josh Donaldson is still so good in the field that you could live with his declining bat if he were the worst hitter in the lineup. The problem is he’s not the worst hitter in the lineup, and the “the glove is so good it’s okay if he’s your worst hitter” logic also applies to the catcher, maybe the center fielder, and also maybe the shortstop. That’s nearly half the lineup!

If the Yankees find a way to dump Donaldson’s salary, pick up Escobar and the $10M he’s owed to play third base, and use the rest of the savings on an impact left fielder, I could get on board with that. How likely is that to happen given the current left field options? Not great. As bad as Donaldson was this past season, the defense is still a separator for me, and I don’t think Escobar’s bat is enough of an upgrade to justify a 1-for-1 swap.

(I would prefer Luis Guillorme to Escobar if we’re talking spare Mets infielders. Guillorme has zero power, but he’s a lefty who doesn’t strike out (13.7% in 2022) or swing and miss (4.3% swinging strikes), will draw walks (10.1%), and play good defense wherever you put him. Guillorme slashed .273/.351/.340 (106 wRC+) this past season and would be a nifty post-Gleyber Torres second base option.)

Matthew asks: Can you can provide your thoughts on how the Braves continue to lock up players to below value extensions? It’s understandable to be able to lock in 1/2 players, but they are 8/8 at the moment! Is something weird going on in Atlanta? Will MLB/MLBPA want to investigate this for any CBA manipulation? Or as Yankee fans can we not appreciate extension due to our recent “flops” and overall organizational stance?

I figured a Sean Murphy extension was coming as soon as the trade went down. The extension bought the Braves three free agent years at $15M apiece. Considering Willson Contreras, who is not nearly the defender Murphy is, got $17.5M a year this offseason, that’s a steal. Atlanta now has seven core players locked up through at least 2025:

• OF Ronald Acuna: $12.5M annually through 2026
• 2B Ozzie Albies: $5M annually through 2025 ($5M isn't a typo)
• OF Michael Harris II: $9M annually through 2030
• C Sean Murphy: $12.2M annually through 2028
• 1B Matt Olson: $21M annually through 2029
• 3B Austin Riley: $21.2M annually 2032
• RHP Spencer Strider: $12.5M annually through 2028

Those are luxury tax hits, not actual salaries, which are relevant now that the Braves are over the $233M threshold ($239.6M payroll per FanGraphs). The Braves hold club options on just about all those guys too. Chances are at least one of those deals will go bad because that’s baseball (my money’s on Harris), but GM Alex Anthopoulos has done a remarkable job getting his core locked up affordably. The Acuna deal and especially the Albies deal are steals.

I’m a bit conflicted about this. I will never begrudge a player for signing an early career long-term extension. I’d do it in a heartbeat. Too much can go wrong in this game to pass up guaranteed life-changing money, and in Murphy’s case, he plays the sport’s most demanding position and has endured a heavy career workload to date. Waiting another three years for a free agent payday is an eternity.

But the Braves did just let Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson leave after both made it clear they wanted to stay. It sends the message that unless you take a discount, you’re not welcome here. And in Freeman’s case, he already signed one team-friendly extension earlier in his career. He more than lived up to that contract, winning an MVP and a World Series along the way, then the Braves asked for another discount. Loyalty is a two-way street and the Braves haven’t shown their players much loyalty when it comes time to pay market rate.

There’s no need for MLB or the MLBPA to investigate. Everything the Braves are doing is above board (well, other than the service time manipulation, which every team does), and I’m sure there’s a domino effect here as well. Once a few guys sign extensions, it gets the ball rolling and you can more easily sell others on the culture and being a place players want to play, etc.

A few weeks ago I said the Yankees should be more open to early career extensions. They don’t have to sign everyone like the Braves, Atlanta might be going a little overboard (the Strider deal pays him as if he’ll go through arbitration as a Cy Young winner), but they don’t have to be as stingy with them as they’ve been the last 20 years or so. If the Yankees believe in Anthony Volpe so much that they’ve passed on all these free agent shortstops, why wouldn’t they approach him about an extension? Seems counterintuitive not to, no?

Paul asks: For all the praise Matt Blake deservingly gets for the Yankee pitching staff the past few years, how has Dillon Lawson seemingly escaped criticism for the offense's complete ineptitude in the second half and postseason?

Well, Aaron Judge did just set the American League single-season home run record and have the best offensive season by any player since peak Barry Bonds. Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres had their best seasons since 2019, Jose Trevino had his best offensive season, DJ LeMahieu was playing close to 2019-20 levels before hurting his foot, etc. Is it really the hitting coach’s fault Isiah Kiner-Falefa didn’t hit or 36-year-old Josh Donaldson’s bat slowed?

Hitting coaches don’t get credit, they just get scapegoated when things go wrong. A few years ago Eno Sarris found the average hitting coach tenure is down to 1.4 years. 1.4 years! This past season Lawson became the Yankees’ fifth primary hitting coach in the last eight years (Kevin Long, Jeff Pentland, Alan Cockrell, Marcus Thames, Lawson). How are we supposed to evaluate anyone when their tenures are so short? We aren’t in the clubhouse seeing the work being done.

Long is the only hitting coach I can recall with a discernible, repeatable skill. He’s helped several high contact hitters develop power (Robinson Cano, Daniel Murphy, Howie Kendrick, etc.). Can you name any other successful hitting coaches? These guys are almost anonymous. They don’t get anywhere near as much praise as pitching coaches. (And a lot of times, like with J.D. Martinez and Justin Turner, their improvement is attributed to their personal hitting coaches.)

It’s very difficult to evaluate a coach’s impact as outsiders. It is much more nuanced than “did the team hit/pitch? if yes, the hitting/pitching coach is good, and if not, the hitting/pitching coach is bad.” No one was impressed with Blake’s work in 2020 (to be fair, it was the weird pandemic season), then everyone sang his praises in 2021 and 2022. Is it possible it takes a year for a coach’s messaging to really kick in?

I’m not saying Lawson doesn’t deserve criticism for the offense crumbling down the stretch this past season. I’m saying I don’t know. Lawson didn’t get the job by accident. He got it because several players in the minors (Oswaldo Cabrera, Diego Castillo, Hoy Jun Park, Anthony Volpe, etc.) really leveled up when he was the hitting coordinator. Let’s give him more than one season.

Chris asks: How will the balanced schedules in the new CBA impact the AL East? Possible we could see four teams in the playoffs and teams like the O’s going for it?

For all intents and purposes, all the new schedule does is replace 20 divisional games with 20 interleague games. It’s the same number of games against the AL Central and AL West, and the same number of games against the Mets. It’s just fewer games against the rest of the AL East and more games against teams in the National League.

It’s been a weird offseason for non-Yankees AL East teams (what in the world are the Red Sox doing?) but I still think the division is pretty strong. FanGraphs projections currently have the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rays as three of the seven best teams in baseball, and the Red Sox are closer to middle of the pack than the bottom. It’s still a really tough, grinding division.

So, take away games against the Blue Jays and Rays (and Red Sox and Orioles) and replace them with games against the Marlins and Nationals and Rockies, and yeah, the schedule will be a little easier for the Yankees. The Guardians and Twins, meanwhile, will lose games against the Royals and Tigers. Their road to the postseason gets a little tougher with the new schedule.

I think sending the AL East sending four teams to the postseason will be difficult in 2023. The Red Sox haven’t improved much and the Orioles have been weirdly quiet. The Astros are still excellent and the Mariners are really good. I think it’ll be tough for the Red Sox or Orioles to bump Houston or Seattle out of the six-team bracket. Not impossible, but difficult.

Brian asks: As Yankees hot stove related news is starting to die down, I have a random question for you. When I am trying to quickly gauge how a player is doing or what kind of year they had, my starting point is usually to look at their wRC+ and OPS+. As you are well aware, these stats are calibrated with 100 being league average. Why aren't these stats organized by position? I.e. wouldn't it be helpful to know what a league average catcher is doing, rather than the league average player which includes better hitting positions?

It would be nice if offensive numbers were position-adjusted, absolutely. Players move around the field a lot these days and it might be difficult to distill their position-adjusted offense down to one single number (imagine trying to do it for Oswaldo Cabrera), but it’s almost 2023. I feel like it’s doable. Here, for reference, are the positional averages in 2022:

(Pinch-hitters were used much less frequently this year thanks to the universal DH. Also, coming off the bench is hard. There’s always been a pinch-hitter penalty.)

I was curious to see the center field numbers without Aaron Judge (335 PA as CF) and Mike Trout (468 PA as CF), so I went ahead and calculated them. Center fielders other than Judge and Trout hit .234/.298/.373 (~91 wRC+) and averaged 14.7 HR per 600 PA in 2022. Judge and Trout combined for 14% of center field home runs in only 4% of the plate appearances. Incredible.

Anyway, Gleyber Torres deserves a little more respect, huh? He may not be a star, and those 38 homers during the rocket ball season created unrealistic expectations, but he hit .257/.310/.451 (115 wRC+) with 24 homers at a position with a pretty low offensive bar this year. As a second baseman only, Torres hit .276/.325/.484 (129 wRC+) with all 24 homers. Pretty, pretty good.

None of the adjusted stats (wRC+, OPS+, DRC+, etc.) adjust for position. They seem to adjust for everything but position. It’s important context! Writers and broadcasters must convey that to the public, and fans should be aware of it when they’re digging through numbers on their own. The positions are not created equal offensively. Not even close.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)