December 27th, 2022: Left Field, Bader, Difo, Triple-A

If you’re looking for something to pass the time, my pal Matt Snyder recently wrote about MLB’s authentication process, which was put to the test this year by Aaron Judge’s American League record 62 home runs (plus many other historic events). Check that out. Now let’s get to today’s post. Sorry it’s on the short side. I had family obligations and all that this past weekend. You know how it is.

1. Outfield options come off the board. Potential left field targets are dwindling. Since we last spoke Michael Conforto signed with the Giants and personal favorite Daulton Varsho was traded to the Blue Jays. I still don’t get the Teoscar Hernandez/Erik Swanson/Kevin Kiermaier series of moves, but Varsho-Kiermaier-George Springer will be a spectacular defensive outfield, at least for the 36 games Kiermaier and Springer are healthy and in the lineup together.

Conforto received a two-year, $36M contract with an opt out. It’s a bit more than I gave him in my Offseason Plan ($20M guaranteed with a chance at $30M total) and it’s a reasonable deal for a player with middle of the order upside, but also risk given the shoulder injury and lost 2022 season. The Giants had to do something after losing Carlos Correa and Conforto was the best something left in free agency. Sensible signing. No further notes.

I’ve seen both Blue Jays fans and Diamondbacks fans complain about the Varsho trade and that is the telltale sign of a good trade: both fan bases are unhappy. It seems like a perfectly reasonable trade to me. Both teams traded from an area of depth (Arizona is still loaded with lefty hitting outfielders and the Blue Jays still have Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk behind the plate) to address an area of weakness. That’s how trades are supposed to work.

"The impact he’s going to have on our team is going to be on every side of the ball,” Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins told Sportsnet about Varsho. “The base running impact, the speed, the versatility, elite defense, and the fact he can also catch for us is about as good a fit as we possibly could have found. It is the ideal fit for this roster and one we are very excited about."

Your opinion of the trade likely depends on your opinion of Gabriel Moreno. He has an unusual hitting profile because he puts more than half his balls in play on the ground and his exit velocity is weak, yet he’s a career .328/.394/.473 hitter above Single-A. Either Moreno is an outlier hitting talent or his offense will crash at some point. Given the state of catching around the league, he’s worth targeting as the centerpiece of a Varsho trade. Moreno’s a potential All-Star at a crucial position even if he has an unconventional style.

The Yankees equivalent to the Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. package is obvious: Anthony Volpe and Harrison Bader. A top 10 prospect and one year of a Major League outfielder. Bader is better than Gurriel, though Moreno plays a more premium position than Volpe and has had more upper level success, so it kinda evens out. Not a perfect equivalent, but it’s close. Volpe and Bader for Varsho, eh? Can’t say I would’ve done it, but that was the price.

As far as the Yankees are concerned, Conforto takes a potential free agent target off the board. The Varsho trade does several things. First, Varsho himself is no longer a trade candidate. We can cross him off the list. Second, the D’Backs are less likely to trade one of their other lefty hitting outfielders now. Their outfield looks set now and for the foreseeable future:

• Alek Thomas in left, Corbin Carroll in center, Jake McCarthy in right
• Gurriel and Kyle Lewis as righty hitting complements (and DH candidates)
• Dominic Canzone, Dominic Fletcher, and Pavin Smith as Triple-A depth

And third, the Varsho trade sets the price pretty high for Bryan Reynolds. Arizona got a top of the line prospect, one of the 10 best in game*, for four years of Varsho. The Blue Jays were reportedly after Reynolds and they’re out now, but enough other teams are in the mix (namely the Dodgers) to create a bidding war. I don’t see why the Pirates should settle for less than the Varsho package for three years of Reynolds, who’s shown a higher offensive ceiling. The market has been set at a top 10 prospect plus more for Reynolds.

* Moreno is no longer rookie-eligible because he exceeded the service time limit this past season, though he only has 73 big league plate appearances, so he’s essentially a prospect. Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranks Moreno the No. 3 prospect in the game. Volpe is No. 10.

All of that is bad news for a Yankees team that is currently looking at a combination of Oswaldo Cabrera, Estevan Florial, and Aaron Hicks in left field. Conforto and Varsho are no longer options, the D’Backs are less likely to trade one of their other lefty hitting outfielders, and the Pirates have been emboldened to ask for the moon for Reynolds. That’s a triple whammy for the Yankees.

Max Kepler is definitely available, the Cardinals could move someone, and perhaps the Giants are open to dealing an incumbent lefty hitting outfielder (LaMonte Wade Jr.? Mike Yastrzemski?) after signing Conforto. I’ve stared at depth charts for weeks and have no idea who else could be available in a trade. Here are the best available free agent outfielders by projected 2023 WAR. These are actual outfielders only (so not Trey Mancini, Dominic Smith, etc.):

1. Jurickson Profar: +1.4 WAR
2. A.J. Pollock: +1.0 WAR
3. Tommy Pham: +1.0 WAR
4. David Peralta: +0.9 WAR
5. Andrew McCutchen: +0.7 WAR

At this point I think Peralta is the best fit for the Yankees as a lefty with a history of hitting righties well and playing good defense, and he’ll come on a one-year deal given his age (35). I assume Profar wants multiple years, and all the other guys hit righty, so yeah. Peralta’s a decent enough stopgap until the Yankees can find someone better at the trade deadline. Shrug.

Regardless of the left field situation, I expect the Yankees to sign a veteran capable of playing center field to a minor league contract. It probably won’t happen until closer to Spring Training because those guys won’t take a minor league deal until they’re sure no MLB contracts are out there, but I expect a signing. My thinking:

• Estevan Florial is out of options and it’s hard to see him opening the season in Triple-A. Either he’ll be on the MLB roster or he’ll be in another organization. The Yankees don’t have another legit center fielder to send to Scranton.
• The Yankees no longer consider Hicks an everyday center fielder. We know this because they played Aaron Judge in center and Hicks in left regularly in 2022. I don’t think the Yankees want Judge playing that much center field again.
• Injuries (forearm, ribs, foot) have limited Bader to 189 of 324 possible regular season games the last two years (58%). A backup plan would be wise.

Jackie Bradley Jr. is the kinda player I’m talking about. He hasn’t bested even a 90 wRC+ in a full 162-game season since 2016, but remains a premium defender, and teams seem to favor guys with a single elite skill over those who are okay at everything but great at nothing. Adam Duvall is a candidate too. Adam Engel, Jake Marisnick, Brett Phillips, etc. Maybe a Tim Locastro reunion? Someone like that.

And it doesn’t have to be a full minor league deal either. It could be one of those non-roster deals with an opt out at the end of camp. The player gets to showcase himself in Spring Training and the Yankees get first dibs at him (i.e. the ability to keep him by adding him to the 40-man roster) if he looks good. I feel like one of these signings is coming no matter what happens in left field.

But as for the left field situation, yeah, it wasn’t a good weekend for the Yankees. Conforto and Varsho are off the board, Arizona’s other outfielders are less likely to be traded, and Pittsburgh's big asking price for Reynolds was shown to be justified. There’s a little less than two months to go until Spring Training, so the Yankees have time, but left field options are dwindling.

2. Mea culpa on Bader. I was critical of the Jordan Montgomery for Harrison Bader trade at the deadline (in my defense, I was not alone) and it’s time to eat crow. The Yankees read the center field market well and were proactive rather than wait and have to navigate inflated prices this offseason. Consider the center field market:

• Brandon Nimmo signed for $20.25M per year through his age 37 season.
• Cody Bellinger hit .193/.256/.355 (69 wRC+) the last two years and still got $17.5M.
• Daulton Varsho was traded for one of the 10 best prospects in baseball (and more!).
• The Pirates have a huge asking price for Bryan Reynolds and the Varsho trade justifies it.
• A mid-range center field prospect (Esteury Ruiz) was enough to headline the Sean Murphy trade.

This was a bad offseason to need a center fielder and the Yankees were going to need one with Aaron Hicks playing his way off the position, and what I sense is a desire to keep Aaron Judge in right field so he doesn’t have to run around as much. Also, it would’ve been difficult to count on Estevan Florial given his career-long contact issues. A center fielder would have been a must this winter.

The Yankees were proactive, and while giving up Montgomery hurt, they were able to replace him with Frankie Montas immediately. That didn’t work out as hoped, Montas was ineffective and injured with the Yankees, but you can understand how Bader + Montas > Montgomery + prospects + being desperate for a center fielder this offseason. And yes, I’m comfortable saying the Yankees would have been desperate for a center fielder. The in-house options weren’t great.

Would the Cardinals have gotten more for Bader this offseason than at the deadline? I think so. I’m sure other teams had interest in him in July, though this offseason the Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, and Mets all needed a center fielder (the Dodgers still do) after not needing one at the deadline. Those are some motivated, deep-pocketed teams that might have been in the mix for Bader this winter, and a bidding war only would have raised the price.

Also, Dylan Carlson hit .250/.318/.405 (107 wRC+) before the Bader trade and .206/.310/.324 (80 wRC+) after the Bader trade. Does Carlson’s limp to the finish convince the Cardinals to keep Bader this offseason? Who’s to say he would have even been available? For the Cardinals, replacing Bader with Carlson was a bit of a dud the same way replacing Montgomery with Montas was a bit of a dud for the Yankees.

To be clear, I’m not saying the Yankees fleeced the Cardinals. Montgomery is steady and reliable, sometimes better than that. The trade was mutually beneficial. Montgomery kept St. Louis out of a free agent market that saw Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker, two good but not great pitchers, get four-year contracts. Not every team is willing to give Carlos Rodon big money when they need a starter. The Cardinals would’ve had their work cut out for them finding a Montgomery type at reasonable dollars this offseason.

I did not like the Montgomery for Bader trade at the time and I wasn’t shy about saying it, but it sure looks like a coup now. I mean, could you imagine the Yankees coming into this offseason needing a center fielder in addition to needing a left fielder and having to re-sign Judge? They would have needed an entire outfield! That would’ve made for a messy offseason.

Bader had a great postseason, though praising the trade now has more to do with what it means for 2023 rather than those nine games in October. The Yankees beat the center field rush and had one less thing to worry about this offseason. And who knows, maybe Bader’s postseason is a sign the Yankees unlocked another level of performance. In terms of exit velocity …

• … three of his top nine
• … four of his top 17
• … five of his top 23
• … six of his top 35
• … seven of his top 42

… hardest hit balls the last two seasons came in the postseason. Bader did hit the ball harder than usual in October, though his postseason homers all came on middle-down pitches, and that’s his nitro zone. The postseason power binge could be nothing more than pitchers clustering a few mistakes together and Bader not missing them (full-size image):

Bader’s chase rate and overall swing rate were down in the postseason relative to the last two regular seasons, but again, it was nine games, and it’s impossible to take anything meaningful from that. Maybe the Yankees really did help Bader level up and a huge year is coming in 2023. I hope they did. And maybe it was just a random nine-game heater. I dunno. We have to see what happens in 2023.

Should the Yankees approach Bader about an extension before Spring Training? He’s a local guy who still lives in the area (he stopped in for Judge’s press conference last week), and he seems to love being a Yankee. Maybe he would jump all over an extension. Next offseason’s center field free agent market isn’t great …

Harrison Bader (30)
Cody Bellinger (28)
Enrique Hernandez (32)
Michael A. Taylor (33)

… and the Yankees will need a center fielder in 2024 (Jasson Dominguez may wind up in a corner, and even if he doesn’t, two center fielders isn’t a bad thing). You don’t have to try hard to see Bader getting, say, 4-5 years at $18M a year with a strong 2023. He is such a good athlete and he’s starting from such a high baseline defensively that I don’t think he’ll age out of center field at age 30 or 31 like most guys. I could see Bader remaining a legit center fielder into his mid-30s a la Lorenzo Cain (and Brett Gardner).

A Bader extension is a topic for another time. For now, I just want to eat crow and give the Yankees props for properly anticipating the center field market and avoiding costly trade and free agent options this offseason. Montgomery was missed, especially once Montas got hurt, but the trade solved a significant big picture problem even if Bader wasn’t an immediate solution because of the foot injury. It’s a trade I’m glad they made now.

3. Yankees sign Difo (and a look at Triple-A position players). The Yankees signed another player to a minor league contract over the weekend: Wilmer Difo. The former Nationals utility guy gets a $1.2M salary at the big league level, and his contract includes a July 1st opt out, per Joel Sherman. Here are all the other players the Yankees signed to minor league deals this winter.

Now 30, Difo recorded his first Major League hit against David Carpenter and the Yankees in 2015 (video). Don’t ask me why I remember that. He went 0-for-6 with the Diamondbacks this year and spent most of the season in Triple-A. Difo is a career .250/.311/.353 (74 wRC+) hitter in over 1,300 MLB plate appearances. He’s hit .273/.335/.395 (83 wRC+) in Triple-A since 2019. Not great!

Difo’s value stems from his versatility (he’s played every position except catcher in his career) and he’s just a Triple-A depth guy, similar to Jose Peraza last year. If we see him in the Bronx this year, something bad has happened. The Difo signing does give me an excuse to take stock of the Triple-A position player group though, so let’s do that now. Here’s what the RailRiders are looking at (my look at the pitching staff is buried in here):

• Catcher: Josh Breaux and Ben Rortvedt
• First base: Jake Bauers
• Second base: Jamie Westbrook
• Shortstop: Anthony Volpe
• Third base: Andres Chaparro
• Outfield: Elijah Dunham, Michael Hermosillo, Brandon Lockridge, Jeisson Rosario
• Misc.: IF Jesus Bastidas, UTIL Wilmer Difo, UTIL Matt Pita

I will need to see Volpe on the Opening Day roster to believe it. He has only a month of Triple-A experience and Oswald Peraza figures to get the first crack at the shortstop job. Peraza’s a very good prospect himself, plus he has just about a full season’s worth of Triple-A time under his belt. All signs point to Volpe opening the year back with the RailRiders. Not the end of the world.

Estevan Florial is out of options and I don’t see him clearing waivers, so I wouldn’t expect him to begin the season in Scranton. It’s MLB or bust for him. So, as I said earlier, I think the Yankees need a true center fielder to stash in Triple-A. I don’t think they want Dunham or Hermosillo (who are better suited for a corner) or Lockridge (who didn’t hit in Double-A) to be the first in line for a call up when the Yankees need someone to at least back up center field.

Bauers, Difo, Hermosillo, Rortvedt, and the center fielder the Yankees may or may not sign are the only players listed with MLB experience. Feels like not enough. The RailRiders had seven players with big league time on the Opening Day roster in 2022: Florial, Peraza, Rob Brantly, Phillip Evans, Dave Freitas, Ronald Guzman, and Ryan LaMarre. The Yankees also signed Greg Bird at the end of camp and he joined Scranton a few days into the season, so that’s eight.

Seems like another signing is coming in addition to a center fielder. A name we’ll recognize with MLB time, possibly on the infield. DJ LeMahieu’s foot is a question, Josh Donaldson could be at the end of the line, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and/or Gleyber Torres could be traded, the kids could flop, etc. Stashing a veteran infielder in Triple-A seems wise. Willi Castro (this guy), who had a big 60-game pandemic season with the Tigers and hasn’t hit since, could be a candidate. He’s played all over and has a minor league option remaining, if necessary.

A player I have interest in: Edwin Rios. The Dodgers non-tendered him after he missed most of 2021 with shoulder surgery and a chunk of 2022 with a hamstring injury. He’s a lefty hitting corner infielder with power and big exit velocity numbers (the power is legit), and also swing and miss issues (30.3% strikeouts and 17.4% swinging strikes in Triple-A this year). Rios is not an ideal fit, but it’s a minor league deal. If he’s open to going to Scranton for a few months, I’d like to see Rios brought aboard as lefty hitting corner depth. He’s got an option left too.

Austin Wells spent the last two months in Double-A this year and he figures to move up to Triple-A a few weeks into 2023. Everson Pereira is a little further behind Wells, and Jasson Dominguez and Tyler Hardman a little further behind Pereira. They’ll be RailRiders before long, just not on Opening Day. The projected Opening Day Triple-A roster is thin on legit prospects other than Dunham and Volpe, but more are on the way. Until then, depth signings it is.

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