December 23rd, 2022: Judge, Luetge, Correa, Reynolds, Carpenter, Cardinals, Mailbag

On this date in 2008, the Yankees stole Mark Teixeira away from the Red Sox with an eight-year contract worth $180M. Teixeira was all set to sign with Boston, then bam, he was a Yankee. He hit .292/.383/.565 (142 wRC+) with 39 home runs in 2009, was AL MVP runner-up, and helped the Yankees win the World Series. The day the Yankees landed Teixeira was one of the most exciting and chaotic days in recent Yankees history. The signing truly came out of nowhere, and stealing him away from the Red Sox made it even sweeter. Good times. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Judge named captain. Aaron Judge’s nine-year, $360M contract was finally made official Tuesday and there was a big press conference Wednesday. At that press conference Hal Steinbrenner named Judge the 16th captain in Yankees history, and the first since Derek Jeter retired in 2014. I thought the Yankees might wait until Spring Training, when the entire team could be present, to name Judge captain, but doing it in December works just as well.

“It goes without saying what an honor that is,” Judge said about being named captain. “I looked back at the list – Thurman Munson, Lou Gehrig, Ron Guidry, Willie Randolph, Derek Jeter, Don Mattingly – that’s a pretty good list right there. Not only great baseball players, but great ambassadors of the game, and of the New York Yankees. This is an incredible honor that I don’t take lightly.”

After the season several Yankees, including Nestor Cortes and Anthony Rizzo (who had not yet re-signed at the time), threw their support behind Judge being named captain. Steinbrenner signs the checks and gets the honor of naming Judge captain, but his teammates matter most. They’re the ones in the clubhouse with him and around him almost nine months a year, and they endorsed naming him captain. Judge was going to be the team leader with or without the captain title. Might as well make it official.

“If somebody at the owner’s level like Hal Steinbrenner wants to place the captaincy, there’s no issues from my end. Aaron Judge has been a leader of this franchise in every way, shape, and form,” Brian Cashman, who once said the captaincy should be retired with Jeter, said Wednesday. “... I shared my feelings out of respect to Derek Jeter and the career he had and the legacy he left. I felt it was appropriate to state that I’m not sure if we ever need one again, but that doesn’t mean if someone else is worthy, that (they shouldn’t be named captain). And clearly in Aaron Judge’s case, he is spectacular.”

Judge is the only active captain in baseball and no, he won’t wear a C on his jersey (Jeter didn’t). Baseball’s last official captain was David Wright in 2018. The Yankees were nice enough to send out an official list of team captains. Here’s it is:

1. SP Clark Griffith: 1903-05
2. SS Kid Elberfeld: 1906-08
3. OF Wee Willie Keeler: 1909
4. 1B Hal Chase: 1910-11
5. 1B Frank Chance: 1913
6. 2B Rollie Zeider: 1913
7. SS Roger Peckinpaugh: 1914-21
8. OF Babe Ruth: 1922
(SS Everett Scott: 1922-25 – he was acting captain and not an official captain, the Yankees say)
9. 1B Lou Gehrig: 1935-39
10. C Thurman Munson: 1976-79
11. 3B Graig Nettles: 1982-84
12. 2B Willie Randolph: 1986-88
13. SP Ron Guidry: 1986-88
14. 1B Don Mattingly: 1991-95
15. SS Derek Jeter: 2003-14
16. OF Aaron Judge: 2023 to present

(Ruth was the captain for only five days. He attacked a fan at the Polo Grounds and was stripped of the captaincy by American League president Ban Johnson.)

Some explanation is required. First, the Yankees did not become the Yankees until 1912. They were the New York Highlanders prior to that. Second, teams were required to designate captains in the early 1900s, and the captain was responsible for making pitching changes, talking to the umpires, etc. It wasn’t until the 1910s that managers assumed those duties.

So, Judge is technically the 12th captain of the Yankees era and only the ninth or tenth in the era in which the captaincy is ceremonial rather than required. The Yankees went a bit overboard with the captaincy in the 1980s. Outside that, this is a rare honor very few players have received. We’re talking the best of the best. Gehrig, Munson, Mattingly, Jeter, now Judge.

I first wrote about Judge as a potential draft target in May 2013, before the Yankees even drafted him. To follow him through the farm system and watch him grow first into the Rookie of the Year, then into an MVP and the American League’s single-season home run king (!), and now into the Yankees captain and someone who will one day have his number retired, has been incredibly satisfying. Judge is a great player and by all accounts a beloved teammate. He’s a franchise player in every way. The only thing missing is a World Series ring. The Yankees have to get him one.

“There’s a lot of unfinished business here in New York,” Judge said Wednesday. “I’m looking forward to finishing that business and trying to leave a legacy here for the next group of guys coming behind me.”

2. Fernandez and Luetge designated for assignment. The Yankees wrapped up all their pending business this week. The Aaron Judge signing was made official and he was named captain, and the Carlos Rodon and Tommy Kahnle signings were made official as well. Rodon had his introductory press conference Thursday. (Pitching coach Matt Blake was there and yes, he has a new contract and is officially re-signed.)

"I’ve always enjoyed pitching at Yankee Stadium. Just putting on these pinstripes is something special,” Rodon said Thursday. “... That brief taste (of the postseason with the White Sox in 2020 and 2021), I’ve always wanted more. Winning’s been at the top of my list as a player. As we know, it’s the Yankee way.”

The Yankees had to open two 40-man roster spots to fit everyone, and to do so, they designated righty Junior Fernandez and lefty Lucas Luetge for assignment. Fernandez was designated to make room for Rodon and Luetge was designated to make room for Kahnle, if you care about the order. Both guys are out of minor league options and couldn’t be sent to Triple-A next season.

I figured Fernandez was first in line to get the ax. When the Yankees claimed him, I mentioned his time on the 40-man may be brief. Fernandez got all the way to the Yankees on waivers (every team but the Astros, Braves, Dodgers, and Mets had a chance at him), so maybe he’ll clear this time and stay with the Yankees as a non-40-man roster player. If not, oh well.

Luetge, 35, was damn good in a thankless role the last two years. The Yankees used him as a low leverage guy (16th lowest leverage index among the 94 relievers with 100 innings from 2021-22), and he was effective in that role while soaking up all those innings. Luetge was easy to root for too given the comeback story. As far as scrap heap relievers go, it doesn’t get much better.

Despite his effectiveness, it’s not the most shocking thing in the world the Yankees cut Luetge rather than significantly younger pitchers like Albert Abreu and Deivi Garcia. Here’s what I wrote when I listed Luetge as a non-tender candidate last month:

Luetge always seems to be on the roster bubble despite throwing 129.2 innings with a 2.71 ERA (2.92 FIP) and strong strikeout (25.0%), walk (5.8%), and barrel (4.8%) rates as a Yankee. He often soaks up multiple innings too. What more could you want from the last or second-to-last guy in the bullpen? … Luetge has been quite good the last two years. He also turns 36 in March is a bad 3-4 game stretch away from never playing in the big leagues again.

The Yankees have until Wednesday to trade, release, or waive Luetge. Given the current free agent market, my guess is they’ll find a trade partner, not that they’ll get anything great in return. Cash or a player to be named later is the usual return for a designated reliever. Maybe they’ll get a low level lottery ticket arm none of us have ever heard of. We’ll find out in a few days.

Designating Luetge means Wandy Peralta is the only established lefty in the bullpen at the moment. But! But Kahnle is essentially a lefty specialist thanks to his changeup, ditto Ron Marinaccio. Here are Marinaccio’s splits this past season:

• vs. RHB: .152/.333/.242 (.280 wOBA) with 30.7 K% and 15.9 BB% (88 BF)
• vs. LHB: .146/.247/.232 (.224 wOBA) with 31.2 K% and 10.8 BB% (93 BF)

Kahnle and Marinaccio are right-handed lefty specialists thanks to their knockout changeups. Aaron Boone used Kahnle that way the last time he was here and he used Marinaccio that way this past season. That’ll continue. Also, Spring Training is eight weeks away. The Yankees have plenty of time to add another lefty to the bullpen if they deem one necessary (there are some good free agents still available).

"You want to have that balance any way you can find it," Boone told Dan Martin earlier this week. "Sometimes that means what hand you throw with, other times it’s a guy’s repertoire."

The 40-man roster is now full and the Yankees will have to clear space whenever they make a move, such as adding a left fielder. I’d say Abreu and Garcia are most at risk of losing their spots now, though a trade(s) to clear space is always possible too (Aaron Hicks?). We didn’t get to know Fernandez much. Luetge was a cool story and good Yankee the last two years. I hope he latches on somewhere and gets to stay in the big leagues.

(Once Spring Training begins the Yankees can put Tommy John surgery havers Scott Effross and Luis Gil on the 60-day injured list to open 40-man roster spots, though that’s still two months away. Gil tweets out rehab videos every so often. Seems he’s doing well.)

3. Latest hot stove news. The Yankees introduced Aaron Judge and Carlos Rodon earlier this week and Hal Steinbrenner said the Yankees are “not done yet.” He said something similar after signing Gerrit Cole and the Yankees didn’t add another player to their 40-man roster from outside  the organization that offseason, so who knows. Also, Brian Cashman said trade prices are very high right now. The next general manager I hear say trade prices are reasonable will be the first. Here’s the latest hot stove news.

Mets steal Correa from Giants

I think we can safely say Hal and Steve Cohen didn’t have a secret collusion agreement to limit Judge’s market. Cohen doesn’t seem to care too much about big salaries and elevated payrolls. The Mets swooped in and signed Carlos Correa away from the Giants in the wee hours Wednesday morning. It’s a 12-year deal worth $315M, or a $26.25M luxury tax hit.

Long story short, Correa agreed to a 13-year contract worth $350M with the Giants last week, but they saw something they didn’t like in his physical and wanted to hold off on the signing, which gave Scott Boras the green light to engage other teams. This is the same Giants team that okayed Mitch Haniger’s medicals two weeks ago. How rigorous could their physicals be? Did someone at the ownership level get cold feet? I don’t understand it.

This whole thing is reminiscent of the Alex Rodriguez trade. A-Rod was going to the Red Sox for Manny Ramirez and then-prospect Jon Lester, it was a done deal, but the MLBPA vetoed it because A-Rod’s contract was going to be restructured in a way that lowered its value. That opened the door for the Yankees, and A-Rod moved to third base in deference to the beloved incumbent shortstop. The Giants had a deal with Correa, it hit a snag, then the Mets swooped in and Correa agreed to move to third base in deference to the incumbent shortstop.

For the Giants, losing Correa is a total disaster. They came into the offseason with hundreds of millions to spend, threw all that money at Judge, then landed Correa when Judge returned to the Yankees. Then they gave the Mets an opening to steal Correa and Cohen obliged. And they look bad too. Don't you think other potential top free agents noticed how things played out? Here’s the great Grant Brisbee (subs. req’d) on San Francisco’s offseason:

There are unfortunate turns of events, and then there’s whatever this is. This isn’t the kind of offseason that’s forgotten with a bag of peanuts on opening day. This is the kind of offseason that will be one of the clearest before-and-after demarcation lines in franchise history, regardless of who the bad guys are … For now, all you need to know is this: What a disaster for the Giants. What a complete, unmitigated disaster.

For the Mets, Correa is the capper on an offseason spending spree that has run their luxury tax payroll up to $390.3M, per FanGraphs. My math has their luxury tax bill at $116.9M. All-in, that’s $506.9M on players in 2023. Here are the highest 2023 payroll + luxury tax bills, per Spotrac:

1. Mets: $507M
2. Yankees: $310M
3. Padres: $251M
4. Phillies: $245M
5. Blue Jays: $228M

The gap between No. 1 and No. 2 is roughly the same as the gap between No. 2 and No. 24 (Nationals at $115M). Two weeks ago I noted the Yankees could sign both Carloses (Correa and Rodon) and still have a lower payroll than the Mets. Now they could absorb the Cardinals ($178M) and still have a lower payroll + luxury tax bill than Cohen’s Mets. The Yankees are being lapped in payroll by a team in their own city. Hal, your thoughts on the Mets’ payroll?

“I think it’s something to be looked at,” Hal said after Judge’s press conference. “Another thing I said in March – which I truly believe – is that every fan of every team, nobody should have to go into Spring Training thinking their team has no chance of making the playoffs. That’s just not good for the game. That’s why all the owners have worked on competitive balance the last 10 years, and why I think competitive balance is significantly better than it was 10 or 15 years ago.”

Ah, well. Anyway the Yankees should give the Mets a call and see what it’ll take to get Brett Baty. Baty, MLB.com’s No. 18 prospect, is blocked now and the Yankees need a young lefty hitter and a long-term third baseman. What could they send the Mets in return? Beats me. But they should call and ask. Baty fits what the Yankees need and Mets GM Billy Eppler wouldn’t be doing his job if he didn’t listen to offers for the kid after the Correa signing.

Yankees remain in contact about Reynolds

According to Jon Morosi, the Yankees remain in contact with the Pirates about outfielder Bryan Reynolds. Pittsburgh is said to want pitching prospects in return, which could be an obstacle because the top of the farm system is all position players. The Yankees’ best pitching prospects are guys like Will Warren and Randy Vasquez, who project more as No. 3-4 starters with reliever risk. They don’t have the pitcher equivalent of Jasson Dominguez or Anthony Volpe in the system.

A three-team trade is always possible. We know the Yankees are open to moving Gleyber Torres given the Pablo Lopez talks at the deadline. The Pirates have no use for Gleyber (why would a rebuilding team want two years of Torres at a big arbitration number?), but other teams sure do. Is something like this possible?

• Yankees get: Bryan Reynolds
• Marlins get: Gleyber Torres
• Pirates get: Pitching prospect(s) from Marlins plus more from Yankees

My preference would be to add Reynolds to Torres, not move one to get the other, but it may not be possible if the Pirates continue to ask for pitchers. The Brewers, Giants, Red Sox, and White Sox need second base help and could be part of a three-team trade, though the Brewers probably won’t like Gleyber’s salary, and I would bet against the Yankees looping in the Red Sox.

The Yankees have gotten pretty good at developing pitchers (there seems to be a new Warren and Vasquez every summer), so I’m totally cool with trading arms for a guy like Reynolds. It would be ideal, really. Keep the high-end position players at the top of the system and instead trade from all that mid-range pitching depth. We don’t know how the Pirates view Yankees prospects. They may love love love Warren or Vasquez or whoever. That would be a welcome surprise.

Cashman said Wednesday the Yankees are prepared to go into the season with Aaron Hicks as the left fielder, but what’s he supposed to say? I don’t think the Opening Day left fielder is in the organization right now. I don’t know if it’ll be Reynolds, but I don’t think it will be Hicks or Oswaldo Cabrera (or Estevan Florial). The Pirates are said to want a Juan Soto-like return for Reynolds and I’m glad that didn’t scare the Yankees away. Stay engaged and wait for them to come back to reality, and see whether you can reach common ground.

(If the Pirates insist on a package built around starting pitchers, the Dodgers are probably the favorite to land him. They have a ton of MLB-ready or near-MLB-ready pitching and badly need a center fielder.)

Carpenter signs with Padres

So long, Matt Carpenter. We’ll always have those 154 plate appearances you were Barry Bonds. Carpenter signed a one-year deal with a player option with the Padres earlier this week. There’s no such thing as a one-year deal anymore, huh? Seems like everyone gets one year plus a player option. Anyway, here is Carpenter’s contract:

• $3M signing bonus
• $3.5M salary in 2023
• $5.5M player option for 2024
• $500,000 each for 300, 350, 400, 450, 500 and 550 plate appearances (both years)

It’s $6.5M guaranteed plus the $5.5M insurance policy player option, and it can max out at $18M. A few weeks ago we heard Carpenter wanted more playing time than the Yankees could offer (I specifically mentioned the Padres as a possible fit) and San Diego plans to play him just about everyday at first base or DH. It’s a good fit for him and them. I hope Carpenter kills it.

It’s been a while since we last laid out the roster and took a good look at it, so let’s do that now that we know Carpenter isn’t coming back (asterisk indicates the player in out of minor league options and must pass through waivers to go to Triple-A):

There’s a chance LeMahieu and/or King will open the season on the injured list, which would open the door for Florial and/or Abreu to make the Opening Day roster, respectively. Then again, the 40-man roster is full, so who’s to say Florial and/or Abreu will still be in the organization on Opening Day? Anyway, that’s the roster right now, 54 days before pitchers and catchers report to Tampa. Upgrade left field, improve on the margins, and get to Spring Training.

4. Scouting the Trade Market: St. Louis Cardinals. The Yankees and Cardinals have had similar offseasons, albeit on different scales. Both retained a star player (Aaron Judge re-signed and Nolan Arenado didn’t opt out) and addressed a need with a top free agent (Carlos Rodon and Willson Contreras). They also have more work to do. The Yankees need a left fielder. The Cardinals want a lefty bat with power and have been in the market for a starter.

“We're still very much open for business,” Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Corey Miller after the Contreras signing. “But how we think about what the right fit is, or trading some prospects for X, it just depends on what that looks like and if we're able to do it."

The Cardinals were reportedly in the mix for Rodon and they made a serious run at Sean Murphy before signing Contreras, serious enough that they put several of the farm system’s biggest names on the table. From Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d):

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch, citing a source, reported the A’s sought a return from the Cardinals that included outfielder Lars Nootbaar, Gold Glove-winner Brendan Donovan and a power young pitcher like Gordon Graceffo. However, another source briefed on the talks said the A’s wanted Nootbaar or Donovan plus Graceffo. The Cardinals were unwilling to trade any of those players, and instead wanted the A’s to choose two from a group of four consisting of outfielder Dylan Carlson, second baseman Nolan Gorman, outfielder Alec Burleson and first baseman Juan Yepez.

Clearly, the Cardinals are motivated to act, and they should be given the state of their division (very winnable). The Yankees and Cardinals have hooked up for two mutually beneficial trades in recent years (Jordan Montgomery for Harrison Bader, Gio Gallegos for Luke Voit). Could they do it again this offseason? Let’s look at what St. Louis has to offer.

OF Alec Burleson

2022 stats: .331/.372/.532 (137 wRC+), 20 HR, 14.3 K%, 6.2 BB% in 470 PA (AAA)
Contract status: All six years of team control remaining

Drafted with the 2020 compensation pick the Cardinals received for losing Marcell Ozuna to free agency, Burleson broke out big time in 2021, and reached the big leagues this past September (9-for-48 in limited action). He’s a bat-first lefty hitter and, even after trading Bader, the Cardinals have more outfielders than roster spots. It’s their biggest area of depth.

Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) ran their Cardinals prospects piece earlier this month and provided an updated scouting report on Burleson, who turned 24 last month. Here’s a snippet of their write-up:

He’s steep but direct to the ball, and prioritizes contact with two strikes, making him capable of driving pitches early in counts, while being a pesky out later on. Burleson does like to swing, but he doesn’t expand much. The two-strike approach has kept his strikeout rate low, but can limit his ability to impact the ball, so that bears watching in the majors, but given his ability to sting stuff in the zone generally, he feels like that classic Cardinals .270, 22-home run guy. Burleson will need to get all the way there though, as he’s unlikely to run stellar OBPs and has limited defensive value. He’s fringy in a corner outfield spot as he’s, well, a burly dude, and his reads and routes aren’t ideal, and first base—which he played a fair bit of in his major league cameo—is occupied for the next couple seasons.

In July, Eric Longenhagen noted Burleson’s “chase rates have historically been in the 37-40% range,” so something doesn’t add up. Either BP’s report that “he doesn’t expand much” is wrong, or Longenhagen’s data is wrong. Or maybe they’re both right, and Burleson cut down on his chases between Longenhagen’s report in July and BP’s in December? I dunno.

Either way, Burleson has limitations, and a guy whose “reads and routes aren’t ideal” isn’t the best fit for left field in Yankee Stadium. That said, you only play half your games at home, and you can always pull Burleson for defense in the late innings. He may be imperfect, but a lefty hitter with power and contact ability is what the Yankees need right now.

OF Dylan Carlson

2022 stats: .236/.316/.380 (100 wRC+), 8 HR, 19.3 K%, 9.2 BB% in 488 PA (MLB)
Contract status: Pre-arb in 2023 and arb-eligible from 2024-26

As recently as last spring Carlson was a consensus top 20 prospect in baseball, and he finished third in the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year voting thanks to a .266/.343/.437 (113 wRC+) line with 18 homers in 619 plate appearances. His play slipped this year, enough that Carlson found himself on the bench a few times in September as St. Louis was trying to lock up the division.

Although he continued to draw walks and was able to cut down on his strikeouts (24.6% in 2021 to 19.3% in 2022), the decline in Carlson’s contact quality this season was alarming:

• Average exit velocity: 88.2 mph to 86.1 mph (MLB average: 88.6 mph)
• 90th percentile exit velocity: 101.7 mph to 101.1 mph (MLB average: 103.8 mph)
• Barrel rate: 7.0% to 4.4% (MLB average: 7.5%)
• Hard-hit rate: 30.6% to 27.2% (MLB average: 38.2%)

Among the 258 players with at least 400 plate appearances in both 2021 and 2022, Carlson had the 15th largest average exit velocity decline, the 32nd largest barrel rate decline, and the 41st largest hard-hit rate decline. And it’s not like he punished the ball in 2021. Carlson started with at best average-ish contact quality, then slipped to comfortably below average.

The Cardinals are not a true powerhouse like the Astros or Dodgers but they are very well-run. Carlson went from finishing third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting one year to being part of a “pick two of these four” trade proposal the next. You have to give up something good to get a player like Murphy, sure, but Carlson was available and others were not. St. Louis appears to have soured on him a bit and they generally know what they’re doing.

Carlson turned only 24 in October and he is a switch-hitter (though much weaker against righties), plus he can play a good center field and be better than that in a corner. Depending how much the suddenly poor contact scares you, there is buy low potential here. Carlson is a good defender who knows the strike zone and was an above-average hitter as a 22-year-old just last year. Not many players that age put up a 113 wRC+ in a full big league season.

The Cardinals are open to moving Carlson for the right price and the Yankees could use a long-term building block in the outfield. For sure, Carlson is not as appealing as he was a year ago, and the down 2022 may be the opening the Yankees need to acquire him. I don’t know whether his vanishing power is fixable. If the Yankees (or any team) think it is, there’s a chance to get a pretty talented young player here at a potentially reduced price.

UTIL Brendan Donovan

2022 stats: .281/.394/.379 (129 wRC+), 5 HR, 15.0 K%, 12.8 BB% in 468 PA (MLB)
Contract status: All six years of team control remaining (will be a Super Two)

Carlson finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting last year and Donovan did it this year. He also won the NL Gold Glove for super utility players after playing every position but pitcher, catcher, and center field in 2022. The soon-to-be 26-year-old is a lefty hitter who’s always had little power and high OBPs. His numbers this year perfectly align with his minor league career.

Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reported the Cardinals would not part with Donovan to get Murphy, so I don’t see how the Yankees could get him and thus won’t spend much time on him. He would be a wonderful get though. The Yankees could plop Donovan in left field (or anywhere!) and let him get on base 40-ish% of the time in front of Judge. Donovan would be an A+ addition, but if St. Louis took him off the table in a Murphy trade, he’s likely unobtainable for the Yankees. Alas.

RHP Jack Flaherty

2022 stats: 4.25 ERA (4.97 FIP), 19.8 K%, 13.2 BB%, 41.7 GB% in 36 IP (MLB)
Contract status: Projected $5.1M in 2023, free agent next offseason

In 2019, Flaherty put together one of the best second halves in baseball history. That isn’t hyperbole. In his final 16 starts that season he allowed 12 runs total and held opposing hitters to a .139/.203/.217 batting line. Flaherty struck out 130 and walked 24 in 106.1 innings. Just a remarkable run of dominance. It earned him a fourth place finish in the NL Cy Young voting.

That was three years and several injuries ago. Injuries, including multiple shoulder strains, and the pandemic have limited Flaherty to just 154.2 innings the last three seasons and those 154.2 innings were good more than great (3.90 ERA and 4.36 FIP). There has been some velocity loss and also a decline in whiff rates since 2019 as well, which isn’t too surprising given the shoulder issues.

Flaherty turned only 27 in October and I reckon few pitchers are capable of doing what he did in 2019. It stands to reason the Cardinals will keep him and try to get him back to that level, but their interest in Rodon and Jose Quintana this offseason tells us they’re not 100% sold on their rotation, and would like to add a sure thing. Their rotation depth chart:

1. RHP Adam Wainwright (41 years old)
2. RHP Miles Mikolas
3. LHP Jordan Montgomery
4. RHP Jack Flaherty (36 innings in 2022 around shoulder injuries)
5. LHP Steven Matz (48 innings in 2022 around shoulder and knee injuries)
6. RHP Dakota Hudson (4.45 ERA and 4.32 FIP in 2022)
7. LHP Matthew Liberatore (struggled in MLB debut, career 4.58 ERA and 4.44 FIP in Triple-A)

Only Sandy Alcantara has thrown more innings than Wainwright the last two years, though he is 41 now and he hit a wall in September, so the Cardinals would be smart to ease up on him a bit next year. Mikolas and Montgomery are safe bets to take the ball every five days. Everyone else comes with questions about their durability and/or effectiveness.

The Cardinals were a runner-up for Frankie Montas at the deadline. Do they still have interest? Does one year of Montas for one year of Flaherty make any sense at all? Montas had shoulder trouble of his own this year, but he’s thrown three times as many innings as Flaherty the last two years (331.1 to 114.1). St. Louis gets the pitcher more likely to make 25+ starts in 2023 and the Yankees get the riskier pitcher with a higher demonstrated upside (i.e. 2019).

I wouldn't do that trade and I feel like both teams say no to Montas for Flaherty. The Cardinals will stick with their guy and the Yankees won’t risk it with a pitcher with so many recent shoulder injuries. It’s so easy to dream on Flaherty staying healthy and pitching like a frontline starter, but you can do the same with Montas. The difference is we’ve seen Montas fail in pinstripes whereas Flaherty is still a mystery.

You can squint your eyes and see the logic of a Montas for Flaherty trade, and maybe that’s just the framework a larger deal is built around, but it’s just so unlikely to happen. Even with all the injuries, I don’t get the sense the Cardinals want to move Flaherty, and I think the Yankees are excited about having Montas as their No. 5 starter. Their No. 5 starter! He’s overqualified for that role.

IF Nolan Gorman

2022 stats: .226/.300/.420 (107 wRC+), 14 HR, 32.9 K%, 8.9 BB% in 313 PA (MLB)
Contract status: All six years of team control remaining (likely to be a Super Two)

Similar to Carlson, Gorman was borderline untouchable a year ago, and now he was part of the “pick two of these four” player pool in the Murphy trade proposal. The 22-year-old is an obvious trade chip for the Cardinals. Consider:

• Gorman’s natural position is third base, but he’s blocked by Arenado.
• He shifted to second base last year, but Donovan is staking a claim to the position now.
• The Cardinals will need DH for Arenado, Contreras, and Paul Goldschmidt down the line.

Gorman came into the season as a consensus top 30 prospect in baseball thanks to his mammoth left-handed power (this is serious juice), and the Yankees sure could use a young power-hitting lefty who can play third base. In his limited MLB time Gorman’s barrel rate (14.4%) and 90th percentile exit velocity (105.4 mph) were strong. The power is 100% legit.

The concerns are contact and defense. Gorman swung and missed a lot in his MLB debut this season, and his 15.0% swinging strike rate in Triple-A the last two years is high enough that it’s a red flag. For comparison, Estevan Florial had a 15.3% swinging strike rate in Triple-A the last two years, and he’s no one’s idea of a bat-to-ball guy. Gorman’s MLB in-zone contact rate (78.9%) was in Bobby Dalbec (78.8%) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (78.6%) territory. Eh.

As for the defense, the metrics slammed Gorman at second base (-5 DRS and -12 OAA), though I’m willing to give him a pass because he just moved to the position last year, and somewhat hastily (the Arenado trade happened in February and Gorman moved to second in Spring Training rather than begin working there in the offseason). The numbers do back up the scouting report though. Here’s what Longenhagen wrote in July:

The presence of Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt on the infield corners means Gorman is being shoehorned in at second base, where he isn’t very good; his range, hands, and actions around the bag are all below average. He can make routine plays, though, and the Cardinals would be justified in running him out there situationally, even knowing that he’s a 30-grade defender at the position. If he played there every day, he’d produce like a left-handed Dan Uggla. Gorman is a fringe defender at third and would probably be an average defender at first base with time.

So, two questions. First, can Gorman get his whiff rates down to a manageable level? Guys like Rafael Devers (14.4% the last two years) and Bryce Harper (14.0%) show it’s possible to be a (very) productive hitter despite an elevated swinging strike rate. It seems you'll have to accept some strikeouts to get the power, but 25% strikeouts is preferable to 33%, you know?

And two, can Gorman become a passable defender at third? Winding up at first base long-term wouldn’t be the end of the world (Anthony Rizzo is only signed for two years) but you would like to keep Gorman at third base as long as possible. That’s the greater need and that’s the more difficult position to fill. Gorman’s upside might be something like .250/.330/.500 with 35 dingers and -5 defense. Flawed and will drive a segment of the fan base mad, but still productive.

C Ivan Herrera

2022 stats: .268/.374/.396 (111 wRC+), 6 HR, 18.7 K%, 13.7 BB% in 278 PA (AAA)
Contract status: All six years of team control remaining

Herrera went from being blocked by Yadier Molina to being blocked by Contreras, though there is a path to him replacing Andrew Knizner as the backup catcher. Herrera could gradually take more starts as Contreras enters his mid-30s, similar to Jorge Posada replacing Joe Girardi in the late 1990s. As for right now though, the kid is blocked. The Cardinals didn’t give Contreras five years and nearly $90M to not catch as much as possible in the short-term.

The scouting reports are split on Herrera’s defense – Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) call him “a solid defensive backstop” while Longenhagen says his receiving and framing are “not great, and his ball-blocking is even further behind and at times is a real problem” – but everyone agrees he’s a bat-first prospect. Herrera has contact ability and power potential from the right side.

Jose Trevino is a great defender and the Yankees are in good hands with him behind the plate. They don’t have an obvious long-term catcher in the farm system, however. Austin Wells is okay at best behind the plate, Antonio Gomez is still a ways away from the big leagues, and neither Josh Breaux nor Anthony Seigler look like everyday catchers for a contender. Trevino will hold the fort down the foreseeable future. In 2-3 years though, who knows?

The state of catching around the league is horrible right now, so even though Herrera doesn’t fit the Yankees’ preferred profile as an elite defender, I feel like you should jump on a good young catcher when you can. Herrera could replace Kyle Higashioka either right away or at some point down the line, apprentice under Trevino, then take over as the starter. That would be ideal. And if it turns out Wells can catch or Gomez clicks, great! The more good catchers, the better.

There are no indications the Cardinals are open to moving Herrera. I’m just connecting the dots. I see a good young catcher with Triple-A experience suddenly stuck behind a three-time All-Star with a new five-year contract. There aren’t many catchers who can hit and it looks like Herrera will provide some offense. The Yankees may not love his defense, but Higashioka and Trevino combined for an .067 OBP in the postseason. Not everyone needs the organizational stamp.

LHP Matthew Liberatore

2022 stats: 5.17 ERA (4.63 FIP), 23.4 K%, 8.3 BB%, 42.0 GB% in 115 IP (AAA)
Contract status: All six years of team control remaining

Liberatore was the No. 16 pick in the 2018 draft and he was part of the trade that sent Randy Arozarena to the Rays. As noted earlier, he’s had a hard time in Triple-A the last two years, and big leaguers tagged him for 23 runs and a .304/.384/.529 batting line in 34.2 innings spread across seven starts and two relief appearances in his MLB debut this season.

That all said, Liberatore turned only 23 last month and he remains a top 100 prospect (No. 71 per Baseball America and No. 80 per MLB.com). His development path has been a bit screwy too. Liberatore threw 78.1 Low-A innings around back spasms in 2019, spent 2020 at the alternate site, then the Cardinals jumped him up to Triple-A in 2021. Alternate sites were only up and running for 12 weeks in 2020. That really enough to skip him over High-A and Double-A?

Here’s part of what Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) wrote about Liberatore earlier this month:

(Despite the unusual development path) these reports are about projecting major league performance, and neither Liberatore’s Triple-A or MLB work suggest a clear-cut above-average major league starter anymore. There’s stuff to like still, specifically the secondary stuff. Liberatore’s high-spin, mid-70s curve has a nice shape and misses a fair amount of bats, and his upper-80s slider bores in on righties and has enough run to make it a tricky left-on-left offering as well. The main problem is Liberatore’s fastball gets hit hard. Some of this is a control and command issue, some of it is a movement and spin issue, He’s run fairly significant platoon splits in the upper-minors and his sparingly used change isn’t going to mitigate that in the medium term. If Liberatore tightens up the command and gets some more ground balls—perhaps he could lean on his sinker a bit more than the four-seam—the offspeed might be above-average enough to make him a useful backend starter.

The Yankees have made big strides with their pitcher development the last few years and Liberatore offers a nice starter kit with his slider and curveball. If fastball shape is holding him back, it feels like he would be in good hands with the Yankees. They’ve gotten several guys to level up their sinkers, sometimes even in the middle of the season.

Not every pitching prospect needs to be a future ace. Liberatore’s upside is along the lines of Montgomery, a solid mid-rotation guy who leans on his secondaries. The Yankees are locked into Rodon and Gerrit Cole at huge dollars. They’re gonna need some cheap arms to fill out the rotation moving forward (plus Montas and Luis Severino are a year away from free agency) and turning Liberatore into a cheap No. 3-4 starter type would be a great outcome.

Wainwright is retiring and Flaherty, Mikolas, and Montgomery will all become free agents after next season. St. Louis needs long-term rotation help badly, so I imagine they’ll keep Liberatore, but it’s worth a call to see whether they’ve soured on him enough to move him. The Yankees are in a place where they could send him to Triple-A, let the pitching folks get a fresh look at him, then make adjustments with an eye on 2024 and beyond.

OF Tyler O’Neill

2022 stats: .228/.308/.392 (101 wRC+), 14 HR, 26.9 K%, 9.9 BB% in 383 PA (MLB)
Contract status: Projected $5.1M in 2023, arb-eligible in 2024

A year ago O’Neill hit .286/.352/.560 (144 wRC+) with 34 homers in 537 plate appearances, and he played premium defense in left field (+11 DRS and +4 OAA). He was a +6.3 WAR player and a Statcast superstar:

O’Neill dealt with a nagging shoulder injury (and also had hamstring trouble) this past season and it cut into his performance, though his contract quality was still much better than average. Just not as far above average as last year. His defense suffered because of the hamstring as well, so the 27-year-old went from +6.3 WAR to +1.3 WAR. Ouch.

The Cardinals have four outfielders for three outfield spots (plus DH) and O’Neill is the oldest and most expensive, making him the most likely trade candidate. Even with his down 2022, there is a lot to like here. O’Neill punishes the ball and is an asset in left field, and the Yankees need a good left field defender and are all about guys who hit the ball hard. He’s right up their alley and you can buy into him performing better with good health in 2023.

The downside: O’Neill is a right-handed hitter, and one prone to striking out. That monster 2021 effort came with a 31.3% strikeout rate and a 16.2% swinging strike rate. He cut those numbers down to 26.9% and 12.7% this year, respectively, but that’s still a lot of whiffs. The problem isn’t that O’Neill chases and has poor discipline. He just takes a big ol’ hack and misses a bunch when he does swing. Giancarlo Stanton is the same way. Disciplined, but whiff prone.

Does O’Neill have All-Star upside? Yes, we saw it in 2021. Is he better than the guys the Yankees currently have lined up for left field? Yes, I think so. Is he an ideal fit? No, the Yankees don’t need another strikeout-prone righty. There’s something to be said for getting the best player and not focusing on specific skills, but I think the Yankees are passed that point and need a lefty hitter. They’re a Rizzo back flare up away from having minimal lefty presence in the lineup.

OF Lars Nootbaar

2022 stats: .228/.340/.448 (125 wRC+), 14 HR, 20.5 K%, 14.7 BB% in 347 PA (MLB)
Contract status: Pre-arb in 2023 and 2024, arb-eligible from 2025-27

An eighth round pick in 2018, Nootbaar didn’t begin popping up on prospect lists until this year because he’s not particularly toolsy and was a “prove it at every level” type. He just kept getting better and better, and things really came together for him this year. There is more to life than these Statcast charts but this is good:

Now 25, Nootbaar has a history of high walk rates, average strikeout rates, single-digit swinging strike rates, and hard-hit ability. He’s a pull heavy lefty who got shifted a lot this past season, so perhaps that batting average (and .248 BABIP) will tick up when the anti-shift rules kick in next year. Add in good defense and you have a “how did we not see this coming?” player who didn’t get enough prospect love.

Nootbaar’s skill set is pretty much exactly what the Yankees need. A lefty on-base guy with pop and few swings and misses, and good defense in the corners. The problem is Rosenthal (subs. req’d) says the Cardinals refused to make Nootbaar available in Murphy trade talks, and if they wouldn’t give him up for Murphy, how are the Yankees supposed to get him? He would be the perfect pickup. I mean perfect. Alas, he is also seemingly unattainable.

* * *

When we heard the Mariners had interest in Gleyber Torres, I said the Yankees were a good trade match for the Mariners but the Mariners weren’t a good trade match for the Yankees. Torres fit the Mariners well but the Mariners didn’t really have anything to offer the Yankees other than prospects (unless you squinted your eyes and really liked some of their spare big leaguers). Their MLB pieces didn’t fit what the Yankees needed.

That’s kinda how things are with the Cardinals, but in reverse. The Cardinals have so many players who would be great additions for the Yankees (Donovan, Nootbaar, etc.) but what are the Yankees supposed to give a team that is seeking a lefty bat and controllable pitching? Maybe the Cardinals really like Domingo German or Clarke Schmidt. That’s kinda where we’re at. There’s no obvious trade match unless St. Louis likes someone more than we know.

Carlson appears to be the best bet for the Yankees. We know the Cardinals made him available for Murphy, so they’re willing to discuss him, and he seems to be sliding down the depth chart after his rough season. It’s a chance for the Yankees to buy low on a talented player who was close to untouchable last year. Whether they have the pieces to entice St. Louis is another matter. There are so many Cardinals players who would be great gets for the Yankees, but the path to a trade is unclear given their needs and what the Yankees can offer.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Jerry asks: Now that we are just past the halfway point in the offseason, I would be interested in getting your interim views on what sort of progress (or lack thereof - looking at you Boston) the rest of the AL East teams have made this offseason.

It feels like the rest of the AL East saw the Phillies reach the World Series with 87 wins and as the third Wild Card team and said yep, that’s the path for us. The Red Sox have made a lot of moves (Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Masataka Yoshida, etc.), but nothing especially impactful, and of course they lost Xander Bogaerts. The Rays added Zach Eflin and that’s it. The Blue Jays replaced Teoscar Hernandez with Kevin Kiermaier and signed Chris Bassitt.

The Orioles … I don’t understand them. The 2022 Orioles were the first team since the 1899 St. Louis Perfectos to have a winning record one year after losing 110 games, and they rewarded their players and their fans with Adam Frazier, Kyle Gibson, Mychal Givens, and James McCann. Why weren’t they after Carlos Rodon? He’s exactly what they need! They should be going for it and instead they’re signing guys they can maybe flip for prospects at the deadline. Here’s what Orioles GM Mike Elias said at the Winter Meetings:

"We're in a little bit of a unique juncture where we're at in our curve where we've got all this internal talent. It's young, we've got it under control ... You do a long-term deal with pitching, the first year of it is likely to be the best year of the contract. So we've got to think about that. And I think our team's going to continually get better the next several years. So we've got a little bit of a curve going on that we have to navigate this year."

The O’s have zero money on the books long-term and their core will never be as cheap as it is right now. An expanded postseason spot is there for the taking. This is exactly when they should spend, and you can spend in such a way that doesn’t damage the long-term plan. Seems like the Orioles won more games this year than Elias expected, but he’s going to stick to his rebuild plan anyway. I don’t get it. I’d be livid if I were an O’s fan after sitting through 2017-21.

Even without a left fielder and some holes at the bottom of the lineup, I think the Yankees are the team to beat in the AL East, with the Blue Jays and Rays the biggest threats. The O’s seem hellbent on not taking the big step forward they should take next year. The Red Sox are probably the most improved AL East rival, though they’ve done a lot of little things that add up to maybe six more wins for a 78-win team (that lost Bogaerts)? Weird times in Boston.

The Yankees are the most improved AL East team by virtue of retaining their core free agents and replacing Jameson Taillon with Rodon. They’ll miss Andrew Benintendi and Matt Carpenter, but those two combined for 285 plate appearances in 2022, or slightly more than Kyle Higashioka. It’s not like they were around for the long haul. Bassitt is a good get for the Blue Jays. Otherwise it feels like the rest of the AL East is spinning its wheels, and the Orioles not doing much of anything is particularly perplexing. When the team improves by 31 wins you’re supposed to begin transitioning out of the rebuild. It’s okay to try, guys.

Shiven asks: Mike - the way you made it seem in the most recent post is that you think Giancarlo is cooked. Do you feel that way? I feel like he has a couple pretty great years in him (.850+ OPS.). Can you do a Stanton write up?

No, I don’t feel that way, I just think we’re talking about a 33-year-old who’s had injury problems and is mostly limited to DH, and we should acknowledge the red flags. I mean, Giancarlo Stanton hit .211/.297/.463 (115 wRC+) in 452 plate appearances this year, including .166/.272/.425 (99 wRC+) following his calf injury in May. That’s a pretty long stretch of mediocre performance.

Stanton remains the king of hitting the ball hard …

… but he’s had trouble staying on the field and players normally begin to decline when they’re his age. It’s likely Stanton’s already had his best seasons. That doesn’t mean he can’t be productive or won’t have those stretches where he puts the team on his back for two weeks, just that I don’t think he’ll be as productive or have those MVP-caliber stretches as often.

I don’t think Stanton is cooked. I’ve just begun to recalibrate my expectations given his age and injury history. Players decline as they approach their mid-30s and they usually don’t get healthier either. This is how it was always going to be, right? You live with the bad years at the end of the contract to get the great years upfront. Hopefully I’m wrong and Stanton can still be a middle of the lineup force for at least another year. The Yankees certainly need him to be.

Adam asks: We hear all this talk about the kids (Peraza and Volpe) as our middle infield of the future. Do either of them have the arm for third? Is there a world where the kids are the left side of the infield? I struggle to see the Yankee brass putting two rookies up the middle like that.

I don't know if they'll do it, but the Yankees should keep Oswaldo Peraza and Anthony Volpe up the middle because the new anti-shift rules will put a premium on athleticism, and they have it. Peraza has the arm for third though, for sure. Volpe’s arm is more fringy for the position. He could probably handle the routine throws, but I don’t think you’d want him at third base full-time.

Oswaldo Cabrera is a better fit for third base because he doesn’t have the premium range you want from middle infielders in the post-shift world, but he has good hands and a good arm. Cabrera looked natural wherever the Yankees put him this year. He’s very similar to DJ LeMahieu in that regard. Doesn’t matter where you put him, it looks like he’s played it his entire life.

Peraza could definitely play third and Volpe’s such a smart and instinctual player that I think he’d be fine there. Their range and athleticism would be best used up the middle and they could form a really spectacular double play combination defensively. I’m not sure what the Yankees will do at third base long-term. LeMahieu’s age and injuries likely means they'll have to watch his workload, and I’d hate to marginalize Cabrera’s versatility by sticking him at one set position.

John asks: At what point in the season is the luxury tax computed? Let’s say a team begins the season at a payroll of $295m. They realize they are out of the playoffs and decide to sell at the trade deadline. They end the season at a payroll of $250m. Is the luxury tax computed on the $250m?

It’s calculated at the end of the season. Long story short, they add up the luxury tax hit of each player on the 40-man roster each day during the regular season. Gerrit Cole has a $36M luxury tax hit. There are 186 days in the season, so Cole counts as $194,548.39 each day he’s on the MLB roster. Cole is pretty straightforward because he’s always on the MLB roster, but you can understand how this could get complicated when guys with split contract (i.e. different salaries in the minors and MLB) are shuttled up and down, etc. Luxury tax payrolls are calculated at the end of the season though. You can start the season over the threshold and finish the season under the threshold, and vice versa.

Vincent asks: Not a word on Chapman this offseason. Between his performance and his year-end shenanigans, do you see him getting a major league offer?

Normally I’d say there are 29 non-Yankees teams and chances are at least one will make Aroldis Chapman an offer, but I’m not sure in this case. The guy quit on his team in the postseason! He was unhappy with his role, so he packed up and went home. Like home home to Miami, not just home to wherever he lives during the season. The entire league noticed. I have no doubt.

There hasn’t been a single update to Chapman’s MLBTR archive this offseason and I don’t think it’s a coincidence. He did not pitch well this year and he straight up quit on his team. Teams will overlook a lot – A LOT – if you can help them win, but it’s not clear Chapman can help a team win now, and he certainly wouldn’t be popular in the clubhouse. Quitting on your team is a major no-no. If he was just bad, I think he would get signed given his track record. He definitely would. But after going AWOL in October, I don’t think a team will bring him in. Chapman sealed his fate.

Anonymous asks: What would you have done with a $290 mil payroll in the offseason plan?

Fun question! I have to assume a payroll limit in my Offseason Plan each year and this year I went with $263M. That’s the third luxury tax threshold, the penalty tier that pushes next year’s first round pick back 10 spots. The Yankees have never exceeded that threshold previously, so it seemed like a reasonable assumption. That had been their limit.

The Carlos Rodon signing pushed payroll up to $291.8M per FanGraphs, so they’re over the third threshold for the first time and I would’ve had an extra $30M to play with. I know exactly what I would've done with it: I would have signed Carlos Correa, not signed Michael Conforto, and traded Anthony Volpe for Bryan Reynolds. That would have given me this everyday lineup:

1. 2B DJ LeMahieu/Joey Wendle
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. SS Carlos Correa
4. 1B Anthony Rizzo
5. DH Giancarlo Stanton
6. LF Bryan Reynolds
7. CF Harrison Bader
8. 3B Josh Rojas/Gio Urshela
9. C Jose Trevino

I was thinking 10 years and $350M for Correa as part of my Offseason Plan, and although he got less in real life, I didn’t know that at the time. That’s a $35M luxury tax hit. I could add Correa and stay under $293M because I had some spending room left over, and also because I’m replacing Conforto ($10M luxury tax hit) with Reynolds ($6.75M in 2023). The money was workable.

I know having an extra $30M in 2023 is not the same thing as having an extra $30M per year across however many years to sign Correa, but in 2023, I could have fit him. Trading Volpe is a tough pill to swallow, though having Correa makes it a heck of a lot easier, and Reynolds is a big addition. I would’ve used that $30M to upgrade two positions and upgrade them a lot.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)