December 16th, 2022: Bauers, Norwood, Warren, Mailbag

In case you missed it Thursday night, Carlos Rodon is coming to the Yankees. It's a six-year contract worth $162M. Not gonna lie, I didn't think the Yankees would do it after locking up Aaron Judge. Glad to be wrong. The Yankees still haven't made the Judge and Tommy Kahnle signings official. Add in Rodon and that's three pending deals and two corresponding 40-man roster moves. It'll all happen soon enough. Don't worry.

I had something written for today's post about Nathan Eovaldi as a backup plan to Rodon, so that's in the Content Graveyard if you're still interested. With Rodon, we can now say the Yankees are a better team than they were at the end of ALCS. Still some work to be done, but the Yankees are better. Let's get to today's post, which is a bit shorter than usual because I originally planned to include the Eovaldi stuff and the latest Rodon rumors, which are no longer relevant.

1. Minor league signings. It’s the time of the year when non-roster signings begin to trickle in. There were a few of them this week, so let’s round ‘em up. The news comes from Jack Curry and the MiLB.com transactions page.

1B Jake Bauers

For a few years there we could pencil Mike Ford and/or Chris Gittens in at first base for Triple-A Scranton and call it a day. That is no longer the case, and the Yankees had to bring Bauers back to man first for the RailRiders. They’ll probably sign another Triple-A first base type too. This past season they had Bauers, Greg Bird, and Ronald Guzman in Scranton at the same time for a bit.

The Yankees got Bauers, 27, in a cash trade with the Reds this past June. He hit .226/.352/.406 (105 wRC+) with five homers in 32 games with Scranton before an injury ended his season in August. Bauers was once a top 100 prospect with the Rays and he has plenty of big league time – .213/.307/.348 (82 wRC+) in over 1,100 plate appearances with Tampa, Cleveland, and the Mariners – and you may remember him hitting a walk-off homer against Chasen Shreve (video).

Bauers is a lefty swinger and he’s never swung and missed much, and his top end exit velocities are good. Not great, but good. Maybe the Yankees can coach him up and tap into that top 100 prospect upside? Probably not, chances are Bauers is what he is, but as far as Triple-A first base depth types go, you can squint your eyes and say Bauers has more upside than most. We’ll surely see him in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee.

RHP James Norwood

Norwood is a local guy. He grew up on the Upper East Side and graduated from All Hallows High School two blocks away from Yankee Stadium on 164th St. I could’ve sworn I wrote about him as a possible target at some point, but apparently not. Norwood definitely showed up on a search I ran. Maybe the “the next Clay Holmes” search, maybe an older spin rate search. I dunno. I forget. I remember coming across the name though. Eh, whatever.

Norwood, 29 later this month, has big league time with the Cubs, Padres, and Phillies. He struck out 22 in 17.1 innings with the Phillies in 2022, but also allowed 17 runs. Here’s his story:

• Career reliever (hasn’t started a game since he was in Low-A in 2015)
• Hasn’t missed bats in the show (33.3% strikeouts in Triple-A but 21.4% in MLB)
• Lots of walks (12.6% in Triple-A and 12.1% in MLB)
• Few ground balls (40.8% in Triple-A and 35.7% in MLB)

Norwood works with a mid-90s fastball that has touched 100 mph in the past, and a low-90s splitter. The splitter had a whiff rate north of 40% in limited time the last two seasons. He also has a slider. Stuff is not really the issue. It’s command and control. Norwood doesn’t throw enough strikes and the strikes he throws aren’t great (middle of the zone, etc.).

With all due respect, Norwood is a pretty standard minor league contract reliever. Good stuff, bad command, now on his fifth organization in the last four years. We might see him next season the way we saw Anthony Banda and Jacob Barnes and Shane Greene this past season, or maybe the pitching gurus help him get to average command and he’s a hidden gem. We'll see.

Norwood will presumably be in camp as a non-roster player and, given the quality of his stuff and the likelihood he’ll find himself pitching against minor leaguers in the late innings of Grapefruit League games, he’s a candidate to have shiny Spring Training numbers and garner “should he make the Opening Day roster?” talk. Every once in a while one of those guys turns into Lucas Luetge. Usually though, it’s just a spring mirage.

RHP Art Warren

Two years ago the Yankees gave righty Matt Bowman a two-year minor league contract knowing he would miss 2021 while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery (Bowman never did pitch during that contract). They might’ve done that again with Warren. He had his elbow ligament repaired in October (he had the suture tape reinforcement procedure, not full blown Tommy John surgery) and is expected to miss 2023. So, a two-year deal to see what’s what in 2024 makes sense.

Warren, 30 in March, had some prospect shine with the Mariners a few years ago and, at least when healthy, he’s shown big spin and bite on his mid-80s slider during his brief MLB career (79 strikeouts in 62.1 career innings). It’s a downer slider more than a sweeper, and Warren throws it roughly 60% of the time. It’s his moneymaker. Warren’s mid-90s fastball is fairly unremarkable in terms of spin, break, etc. He’s a slider specialist.

There’s not much more to say about Warren than that. His slider and its 40% whiff rate the last two years is interesting, and maybe the Yankees can help him find another gear with his fastball. We won’t know until he gets healthy, which is unlikely to be in 2023. So, file Warren away as a dice roll for 2024.

McDowell signs with Phillies

This one is not a signing but instead a player leaving. C Max McDowell, who joined the Yankees in 2020 and spent that year at the alternate site, and the last two years with Triple-A Scranton, has signed with the Phillies. He announced it on Instagram. The 28-year-old hit .212/.338/.293 (80 wRC+) with the RailRiders the last two years. He’s a defense-first guy (duh).

I bring this up only because McDowell was the No. 3 catcher in Triple-A the last two years, first behind Rob Brantly and Donny Sands in 2021, then behind Brantly and Josh Breaux/Ben Rortvedt in 2022. Breaux and Rortvedt figure to be Scranton’s two catchers next season, but the Yankees will probably bring in a third guy to fill McDowell’s role. Maybe it’ll be Brantly again. So, expect a minor league catcher signing at some point with McDowell leaving.

2. Rapid fire thoughts. MLB.com’s top 100 draft prospects list is out. As always, the scouting reports are free. They also put together an insanely early mock draft, if you’re interested. They have the Yankees taking Georgia HS SS Colin Houck, who I did not know existed until I read the mock draft. The Yankees have taken a hitter with their last five first round picks and that is a growing trend in the build-a-pitcher era. Take the best bats early, then find interesting arms and coach them up into Ken Waldichuk and Will Warren later. How about Virginia Tech OF Jack Hurley as my super early guess for next year’s first round pick? MLB.com’s scouting report sounds Yankees-esque … And finally, another Yankee is heading to the World Baseball Classic: Carlos Mendoza. The Yankees bench coach will be on Venezuela’s coaching staff, the team announced. Players leaving for the WBC opens up Spring Training at-bats and innings for other guys trying to showcase themselves. The same applies to coaches. Minor league instructors always help out in Spring Training (there are a lot of players to watch over), but with Mendoza stepping away for a few weeks, it’ll be a chance for someone looking to climb the ladder to assume more responsibility.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Eric asks: Thoughts on these Stanton for Tatis rumors? Honestly doesn't pass the sniff test IMO but kind of makes sense on paper if you squint.

There’s nothing to these Fernando Tatis Jr. rumors. A non-baseball reporter threw it out there that the Yankees were pursuing Tatis after the Padres signed Xander Bogaerts, but it’s bogus. I know the Padres are frustrated with Tatis, moreso for the motorcycle accident than the PED suspension, but he’s still their guy and is a .292/.369/.596 (153 wRC+) career hitter who has averaged +8.1 WAR per 162 games and is still only 23 years old. They’ll get over it.

Tatis has 12 years and $334M remaining on his contract ($27.8M recalculated luxury tax hit) and yeah, that’s pretty much right in line with the shortstop market these days. It’s roughly the same luxury tax hit as Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, and Trea Turner, though Tatis is only signed through age 35, not 40. His contract includes his entire prime and no potentially ugly age 36-40 seasons.

For the Padres, Giancarlo Stanton’s recalculated luxury tax hit would be $32M a year, and that’s a ton for a just turned 33-year-old most of the time DH. San Diego would be taking on the older, worse, and more expensive player to do what, get rid of the last seven years of Tatis’ contract? They’re obviously in it to win it right now. Tatis for Stanton would be sacrificing the present for the future, or sacrificing on-field value for clubhouse harmony.

The thing is, I don’t think the Yankees would do it either. I think those extra seven years, which cover Tatis’ age 29-35 seasons, would scare them away. Maybe they’d be okay with it if they’d lost Aaron Judge and didn’t already have two big money contracts on the books with 6+ years remaining (Judge and Gerrit Cole), but with Judge back, I just can’t see it.

For me, Stanton for Tatis would be an easy yes. You’re getting the much younger and much better player. I don’t understand why the Padres would do it (even if they’re sick of Tatis, surely they could get a better return from another team) and I don’t think the Yankees would take on a 12-year contract, even for a player as good and as young as Tatis. We’ve seen them pass on elite, prime-aged talent before. They’ll do it again.

Joe asks: What are your thoughts on Anthony Rendon and do you think taking on his remaining 4 years and ~155 million to acquire Ohtani would be realistic?  The hope is they will try to clear payroll ahead of the sale of the team. Could we also unload Hicks and Donaldson in the same deal?

I imagine some lower level/higher upside prospects might have to go back to the Angels as well.

Rendon’s probably a "stay away" player at this point. Injuries, including hip and wrist surgeries, have limited him to 105 games the last two seasons, during which he hit .235/.328/.381 (98 wRC+). He turns 33 next year and is entering what figure to be his decline years. Maybe Rendon can bounce back with good health. How much do you want to bet on it?

Of course, we’re talking about taking on Rendon to get Shohei Ohtani, one of the sport’s greatest players and its most marketable force. Aaron Hicks and Josh Donaldson are salary offsets in this trade scenario. In the end, you’re taking on a bunch of money to get one year of Ohtani. Here’s how the money works out for luxury tax purposes:

Even with Donaldson and Hicks going the other way, the Yankees would take on $127M to get one year of Ohtani plus whatever Rendon gives them the next four years, which could be a lot! Or it could be a continuation of 2021-22, leaving them counting down the days until that contract is off the books. The Yankees have a lot of money, but you still want to spend it wisely.

The Angels are up for sale, and while they’re going to run the highest payroll in franchise history in 2023, they have close to $100M coming off the books next year, so the new owner has a nice reset coming. I’m certain they’d love to unload Rendon to make the team’s payroll situation even more desirable to the new owner. But enough to dump Ohtani? Will Rendon’s $38M a year for the next four years make that big of a difference in the grand scheme of the sale?

I don’t think there’s any chance the Angels would do this. Ohtani is way too valuable and there’s a chance – I don’t know how big of a chance, but a chance – Rendon is an impact player in 2023, when the Angels will try to snap baseball’s longest postseason drought. I think the Yankees would do it, and even kick in some prospects to do it, if the Angels eat a little money and turn Rendon into, say, a $28M a year player. At Rendon’s full salary, I think they’d pass.

(Also, Ohtani rules, but he's an imperfect fit for the roster with Giancarlo Stanton set to get most of the DH at-bats. He also requires a six-man rotation. That part is no big deal. You can make that work. The DH thing could be a headache though.)

Jonathan asks: With all the money flying around. Is it fair to say that Stanton would get close to his remaining contract on the market?

I do nothing think it's fair to say. Giancarlo Stanton just turned 33, he’s played only 290 of 546 possible regular season games the last four seasons (53%), and he’s close to a full-time DH. He also has five years and $160M remaining on his contract, or $32M per year. Jose Abreu got three years at just about $20M per year. Does Stanton get even that? I’m not sure. The huge dollars are going to elite players in their primes, not players leaving their primes like Stanton. The end of his contract was always going to be ugly, and we’re getting there now. Even during this crazy offseason, I don’t think Stanton would get even half the $160M he still has coming to him.

Phil asks: The Braves have acquired Sean Murphy and traded 2 of the 3 catchers on their roster in the deal. The remaining catcher is Travis d'Arnaud who is too good and expensive ($8 million/year) for a backup catcher. Could this be an opportunity for the Yankees to upgrade their offense at catcher by taking d'Arnaud off the Braves hands? d'Arnaud is a much better hitter than either Jose Trevino or Kyle Higashioka and has decent framing numbers. I don't see Trevino repeating his outsized framing numbers from 2022 which are by far better than anything he's ever done and after a brief surge at the plate he really dropped off a cliff with the bat. MTPS but would Trevino, Vargas and Sweeney get it done? The trade values slightly favor the Yankees but the Braves are getting salary relief a more suitable backup C and two SS prospects in case they lose Swanson.

I’d call and ask, for sure. Ever since getting away from the Mets four years ago, d’Arnaud has hit .261/.320/.453 (109 wRC+) in over 1,200 plate appearances. That includes a .268/.319/.472 (120 wRC+) line and 18 homers in 2022. He rates as a top 5-10 framer as well, and about average at the other aspects of catcher defense (blocking, throwing, etc.), per Baseball Prospectus.

Trevino is so easy to root for but yeah, his bat hit a wall down the stretch (.244/.266/.360 and 77 wRC+ in the second half). Also, I buy him being one of the best framers in the game, though last year’s numbers were a bit outsized as Phil said. Trevino caught 713 innings in 2021 and 820.1 innings in 2022. An increase, but not a huge one. Now the framing numbers:

• FanGraphs: +8.8 runs in 2021 to +19.1 runs in 2022
• Statcast: +8 to +17
• Baseball Prospectus: +14.3 to +18.5

Framing can be improved and the Yankees have a track record of improving it (Gary Sanchez got better at it too, though he went from awful to merely below average), so maybe Trevino’s big uptick in framing will stick. I hope it does, because if the bat is what it’s been his entire career outside of the first half of 2022, he’ll need to be a framing god to remain a viable starter.

I like to get offense from catcher, and it’s not like the Yankees would make a huge sacrifice on defense to get d’Arnaud’s offense. He’s a good framer too. The Braves owe him $8M next year with an $8M club option for 2024, so he’s affordable, but I can also understand Atlanta not wanting to pay that when they just brought in Murphy to presumably start.

Atlanta frequently had d’Arnaud and William Contreras in the lineup together at catcher and DH this past season (even when they didn’t have a third catcher on the roster) and I would think they’re prepared to do the same with Murphy and d’Arnaud. They don’t have to move him, and two good catchers is better than one good catcher. Injuries can happen at that position.

d’Arnaud/Trevino is preferable to d’Arnaud/Higashioka. Would the Braves have interest in Higashioka to serve as Murphy’s backup? Atlanta is very much a World Series contender and I think they’d want MLB help as a second piece in a d’Arnaud trade rather than a prospect, and I don’t mean Isiah Kiner-Falefa to replace Dansby Swanson either. What about this?

All three players have two years of control remaining. The Braves get a lockdown high leverage reliever, something a World Series contender can never have too much of, and the Yankees get a starting catcher who upgrades the offense without dinging the defense too much. The Yankees do have to upgrade the offense this offseason. I hope to soon see rumors that reflect they’re aware of this.

The surplus value may match up perfectly in the trade machine but I think the Braves say no to that deal. There are still quality relievers available in free agency (Andrew Chafin, Taylor Rogers, etc.) but catchers as good as d’Arnaud are few and far between. Omar Narvaez agreed to a deal with the Mets on Thursday. The best free agent catcher is now, uh, Gary Sanchez? Roberto Perez? 

I don’t know what the trade package would look like but yes, I would generally be in favor of a d’Arnaud trade. Ideally you give up prospects to get him, but I would think a World Series contender like the Braves would want immediate MLB help in exchange for one of the 8-10 best catchers in the sport, even if he comes with age-related risk (34 in February).

(Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos is "adamant" they won't trade d'Arnaud despite the Murphy trade, though that could be the usual hot stove posturing.)

Rich asks: Here it is, the inevitable what would a similar package from the Yankees have looked like to acquire Murphy?

That was a weird trade. The Athletics must love Esteury Ruiz*, the outfield prospect they got from the Brewers in the three-team trade, otherwise I don’t get it. No one else seems to get it either. The trade has been widely panned as a quantity over quality package with no future impact piece. You gotta do better than that for three years of one of the best all-around catchers in the sport, no?

* Ruiz, 24 in February, slashed .323/.428/.467 (139 wRC+) in Triple-A this year and led the minors with 85 steals in 99 attempts. The underlying numbers are really lacking though, and he's been billed as a slash-and-dash/defense type is who is good more than elite in center. The most common comp I’ve seen is Victor Robles. Eh.

The A’s certainly did get quantity for Murphy though. Five players total. They also gave up righty reliever Joel Payamps in the trade, but he’s been claimed on waivers/traded for cash six times in the last two years. The definition of a throw-in. Here’s my best guess at the Yankees' equivalent of the Murphy package. Some of these are a stretch:

• OF Esteury Ruiz: OF Estevan Florial (MLB-ready guy with holes in his game)
• LHP Kyle Muller: RHP Clarke Schmidt (MLB-ready starter)
• RHP Freddy Tarnok: RHP Clayton Beeter (big stuff, likely headed to the bullpen)
• RHP Royber Salinas: RHP Richard Fitts (High-A lottery ticket)
• C Manny Pina: C Kyle Higashioka (veteran MLB backup)

Like I said, some of those are a real stretch. Schmidt has five years of control and Muller has six, and Salinas is several years younger than Fitts and has better numbers (175 strikeouts in 109 innings in 2022!). Also, Florial has spent close to two full years in Triple-A. Ruiz didn’t get there until this June. Beeter/Tarnok is the best equivalent there.

Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) says Oakland wanted two MLB-ready position players for Murphy, and when no one met the asking price, they took Muller as the second piece to Ruiz. The Yankees could have offered Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza, they’re MLB-ready position players, then filled out the package with lottery ticket arms. They have lots of those.

Would trading the Oswald(o)s have been worth it? Yeah, maybe. Murphy is excellent and he has three years of control. You’d still have Anthony Volpe around to be the long-term shortstop, and while losing Cabrera as a quality super utility guy would hurt, great catchers are extremely hard to acquire. When one becomes available, it’s rarely a bad idea to pounce. As far as we know the Yankees weren’t in on Murphy. They’re happy with the Jose Trevino/Higashioka tandem.

Alessandro asks: Would there be any traction on a Daulton Varsho-Frankie Montas trade?

I wish. I’m a big Varsho fan so maybe I’m biased, but I can’t see the Diamondbacks doing four years of Varsho for one year of Montas without getting significant secondary pieces. Varsho, 26, hit .235/.302/.443 (106 wRC+) with 27 homers this season while catching 31 games and playing 125 games in the outfield, including 54 in center. He was a Gold Glove finalist at two positions.

The best way to get Varsho might be taking on Madison Bumgarner’s contract. He’s owed $37M the next two seasons and has been very bad the last three years (4.98 ERA and 5.04 FIP), so a) I’m certain the D’Backs want to unload him, and b) I don’t know what the Yankees would do with him. Is he fixable? He’s 33 with a ton of innings on his arm, and he’s rather ornery. I could see him being miserable in New York with all the media and attention.

Maybe the Yankees could flip Bumgarner (to the Rangers to reunite with manager Bruce Bochy?), but it won’t be easy. Even still, take on Bumgarner and I think the Yankees would have to give up more than just Montas to pry Varsho loose. The Trade Values site says:

The surplus value is in the ballpark and the D’Backs are known to want a righty hitter for the left side of the infield, and they could stick Peraza at short on Opening Day. The Yankees get a lefty bat with power and good outfield defense who they could also put behind the plate. The D’Backs have a ton of lefty hitting outfielders. One of them is getting traded at some point.

The Varsho/Bumgarner idea depends on how badly Arizona, a team that has run a $95M-ish payroll the last two seasons, wants to dump Bumgarner’s money. Maybe it’s so much that they’ll trade Varsho for 75 cents on the dollar or whatever it is. I don’t think one year of Montas, who was hurt and ineffective for much of the second half, for four years of Varsho is anywhere close to a doable framework. The D’Backs would want a lot – A LOT – more, and I think it's understandable.

Mark asks: Very Happy Judge is back, but playing devil's advocate, would the Yankees have been better off from a baseball standpoint signing both Nimmo and Benintendi instead? In a perfect world, the Yankees sign both Judge and Nimmo (before he signed with the Mets)/Benintendi. I don't see Hal having the stomach for that. Maybe it happens if Cashman can miracle Donaldson off the payroll.

I would almost always take one star player over two good (very good in Brandon Nimmo’s case) players. Roster spots are finite and the more you can get from one roster spot, the better shape you’ll be. For argument’s sake, let’s put numbers on this using Steamer projections, because that’s all we have right now:

• Judge: $40M per year and +6.9 WAR in 2023
• Nimmo: $20.25M per year and +5.0 WAR in 2023
• Benintendi: $14M per year (projected) and +2.3 WAR in 2023

Benintendi and Nimmo net you an extra +0.4 WAR and save you $5.75M. The projections are whatever, but that’s the general idea, right? These two players make you a bit better and save you a little money compared to that one player. This only makes sense if you believe the Yankees will put a replacement level player in left field, which they almost certainly will not.

(Oswaldo Cabrera is penciled in as the left fielder right now and he’s projected for just under +2 WAR in 2023. He may flop, sure, but Benintendi is coming off major wrist surgery. He isn’t a slam dunk either.)

When you’re the Yankees and you can run a huge payroll, take the star player rather than try to do two or three smaller things that add up to a slightly better team in the aggregate. That’s what small payroll teams have to do. Not the Yankees. Get the stars and pay to surround them with good players. Give me Judge plus Mystery Left Fielder over Benintendi and Nimmo. I betcha that Mystery Left Fielder ends up being pretty good.

Anonymous asks: Can you explain how war is worth 9 million per win. I hear that a lot but struggle to understand. Not every win is considered =.

I mentioned teams pay roughly $9M per WAR last week and it is absolutely correct that not all wins are created equal. The dollar-per-WAR calculation is very straightforward. This offseason teams committed X dollars to free agents projected to produce Y WAR during their contracts, and X divided by Y equals the price of a win. It’s nothing more than an average.

Wins are worth different things to different teams though. Every win the Yankees add moves them closer to a division title and a Wild Card Series bye, so they should be willing to pay an inflated price to get those extra wins. But every win that, say, the Pirates add does nothing for their 2023 outlook. Why would they pay the going rate to jump from 65 wins to 67?

This also applies to individual players. As I said earlier, roster spots are a finite resource, so you should be willing to pay more per win for a +6 WAR player than a +3 WAR player. Getting all that production from one single roster spot is really valuable. It leaves you other roster spots you can fill with anything else, including another +6 WAR player (particularly when you’re the Yankees).

Wins are not equally valuable and anyone doing straight $/WAR analysis in the year 2022 without accounting for the team’s place on the win curve is at best not providing the full picture and at worst being lazy. The league average is around $9M per WAR right now. Fine. For the Yankees, that number is higher because they’re on the division title/Wild Card Series bye bubble. They should be willing to pay more than the league average for a win because the potential impact of every extra win is so great.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)