December 6th, 2022: Cashman, Judge, Verlander, Arraez, Hendriks

The first real day of the Winter Meetings is in the books and Aaron Judge remains unsigned. The good news is he’s unsigned and not a San Francisco Giant or a Los Angeles Dodger or a Yakult Swallow or whatever. But, he’s still unsigned, which means he’s not a Yankee. Not a fan. I hope the Yankees can wrap this up soon and move on to other offseason business.

Aaron Boone will hold his Winter Meetings availability at 7:40pm ET on Tuesday. These manager scrums almost never bring news. Maybe Boone will tell us pitching coach Matt Blake has been re-signed, but he won’t be the one to break the news Judge is returning/leaving. Monday was a quiet day for the Yankees by Winter Meetings standards. Let’s review the goings-on.

Cashman re-signs (finally)

The worst kept secret in Yankeeland is no longer a secret: Brian Cashman will return as general manager. He has a new four-year contract, the Yankees announced Monday. No word on the financial terms but does anyone really care about those? Safe to assume Cashman will be one of the highest paid executives in the sport given his tenure and resume.

The press release says that, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Yankees have been eliminated from postseason contention for only 16 of Cashman’s 3,946 regular season games as general manager. I knew that number was low but sheesh. For as much as I bitch and moan, I greatly appreciate the Yankees never being truly bad. 84 wins is as bad as it gets around here.

Anyway, Cashman is officially back. If Hal Steinbrenner were planning to change the front office, he would’ve done it weeks ago, not during the dang Winter Meetings. This could be Cashman’s final contract as general manager given his age (56 in July) and near-three-decade tenure, but I’m pretty sure I said that the last two contracts, so who knows?

The latest on Judge

Depending who you ask, Judge either will (Bryan Hoch) or will not (Dan Martin) attend the Winter Meetings on Tuesday (he was at the Monday Night Football game in Tampa). I wouldn’t read too much into it either way. Sometimes top free agents go to the Winter Meetings (Brandon Nimmo is there now), sometimes they don’t (Gerrit Cole didn’t in 2019). I guess we’ll find out Tuesday one way or the other.

“It's a little awkward in that regard, seeing your guy out there in free agency. Hopefully something gets done.” Boone told Pete Caldera and Bryan Hoch. “... I can make a case in my mind like, ‘Of course he's coming back and we'll get there.’ But you never know with these things. I'm trying not to allow myself to get overly optimistic or overly pessimistic on it.”

Other than Mark Feinsand saying mystery teams are involved and Cashman saying the Yankees have not given Judge any kinda deadline for a decision, there weren’t any new Judge-related developments Monday. We are in wait-and-see mode. Trea Turner got an 11-year, $300M deal from the Phillies though and hoo boy, I’m sure that got Judge’s attention. Here’s how long various superstar players with long-term contracts are signed:

• Through age 40: Trea Turner
• Through age 39: Mookie Betts
• Through age 38: Bryce Harper, Mike Trout
• Through age 37: Gerrit Cole, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager
• Through age 36: Nolan Arenado
• Through age 35: Manny Machado

Turner is 14 months younger than Judge and he signed a contract that takes him through his age 40 season. Will Judge now ask for a tenth year to take him through age 40? I’ve been saying nine years feels inevitable for weeks, and the free agent market has been bonkers this winter. Turner is signed through age 40. Why wouldn’t Judge ask for a tenth year now, especially if the Giants go to nine?

Turner got more years than I thought he would. Jacob deGrom also got more years than I thought he would. Jose Abreu, Rafael Montero, and even Justin Verlander too. They all got longer contracts than I expected. And when everyone gets larger/longer contracts than you expect, the problem is you, not the contracts. Time for me to recalibrate what it takes to sign great players.

Getting Judge on an eight-year deal would take a minor miracle at this point. Nine years would be a good outcome. 10 years? I don't think it’ll happen, but I no longer think it’s impossible. Turner got signed through age 40 and teams are clearly willing to spend*. Judge is going to cash in bigger than I think anyone expects, and I hope the Yankees are the team that pays the big dinger man.

* Historically, free agent spending goes up the year after a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, and yeah, that seems to be happening this offseason.

Verlander signs with New York

But not with the Yankees. The Mets quickly pivoted and replaced deGrom with Verlander in what felt like a must-make move. It’s a two-year contract worth $86.6M, and it includes a third year vesting option worth $35M. The $43.3M average annual value ties Max Scherzer’s record. Two starters, ages 38 and 40, making $43.3M each. What a time.

The Yankees were connected to Verlander the last few weeks and surprise surprise, they would not entertain a third year, according to Jack Curry and Brendan Kuty. They missed out on Verlander last offseason because they wouldn’t do any kind of second year, and they missed out on him again this offseason because they wouldn’t do a third year. Business as usual.

A few things about this. One, I’m actually not too upset the Yankees didn’t sign Verlander. It would have been nice to get him, sure, but part of me fears Randy Johnson 2.0. Getting a 40-something-year-old Hall of Fame workhorse coming off a great season and then having him show his age. An irrational fear? Probably, but I’ve seen it before and I don’t want to see it again.

Two, the Yankees will miss out on a lot of players if they’re not willing to go above their valuation and give out that extra year. It happened with Verlander last offseason and again this offseason, so it’s a bit of a pattern. Free agents don’t sign the sensible deal that is fair to both sides. They sign the biggest contract. The one that is an outlier, usually because the team is desperate.

That isn’t to say the Yankees should be reckless and give everyone the extra year or do whatever it takes. But they wanted Verlander last offseason, missed out because they wouldn’t do the extra year, regretted it (or should have regretted it, anyway), and then they did the same exact thing this offseason. You’re not going to sign top free agents by being rational. Rational means you finish in second or third place. At some point you have to go beyond your comfort zone.

And three, at least now we have a reason to look forward to the Yankees possibly facing Verlander in the postseason, because it would mean a trip to the World Series. A Subway Series would be rad as hell. Verlander will probably shut the Yankees down because he shuts the Yankees down every October, but I’d be willing to take my chances in exchange for a pennant.

The Yankees are said to be in the mix for Carlos Rodon, but he’s asking for six years and $180M according to Jon Heyman. I just don’t see the Yankees going there unless Judge leaves, and is six years at $30M a pop really preferable to Verlander’s deal? I know Rodon is a decade younger, but he’s not exactly a beacon of health. The short-term high dollar deal seems preferable to me. I dunno. Well, whatever. Verlander is a Met and the Yankees are purportedly in on Rodon.

Twins open to trading Arraez

The Yankees need high contact lefty bats and there is no higher contact lefty bat than Luis Arraez, whose .316 batting average was the only thing that stood between Judge and the Triple Crown. Dan Hayes (sub. req’d) reports the Twins are open to trading Arraez, but only for top tier pitching. Apparently the free agent prices have spooked them.

Arraez, 26, is an unusual player. He’s basically a contact-only guy. He has little power (career high eight homers in 2022), he isn’t fast and doesn’t steal cases (8-for-16 career), he’s a poor defender without a set position, and he has a lengthy injury history. Arraez might be the best bat-to-ball guy in the sport though. Some 2021-22 leaderboards (min. 800 plate appearances):

Strikeout rate
1. Luis Arraez: 8.4%
2. David Fletcher: 8.5%
3. Kevin Newman: 10.3%
4. Adam Frazier: 11.4%
5. Jeff McNeil: 11.7%
(MLB average: 22.4%)

Swinging strike rate
1. Luis Arraez: 3.3%
2. David Fletcher: 4.3%
3. Myles Straw: 4.5%
4. DJ LeMahieu: 5.0%
5. Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 5.4%
(MLB average: 11.2%)

In-zone contact rate
1. David Fletcher: 95.7%
2. Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 95.2%
3. Luis Arraez: 94.8%
4. Kevin Newman: 94.1%
5. Mookie Betts: 93.5%
(MLB average: 85.3%)

Those leaderboards are a good reminder there’s more to life than contact (some of those guys are terrible hitters), but Arraez has a .314/.374/.410 (120 wRC+) career line in over 1,500 plate appearances, and he’s walked more than he's struck out (8.3% vs. 8.7%). It’s super elite contact ability, a league average walk rate, and negative value everywhere else.

The Twins used Arraez primarily at first base and DH this past season, though they’ve also stuck him at second and third bases to get his bat into the lineup, and even some left field. I’m not sure where he’d play for the Yankees. Do you trade Gleyber Torres and/or Josh Donaldson, and just live with Arraez’s defense at second (in a shift-less world) or third? What are the other options?

Of course, the issue here is not finding a place for Arraez to play, it’s matching up with the Twins for a trade. Hayes (subs. req’d) indicates Minnesota will only trade Arraez and his three years of control for a blue chip starter. I don’t think that means one year of Frankie Montas or even Luis Severino, or Clarke Schmidt, or Will Warren, or some combination of the above.

Do you give up Nestor Cortes? It's three years of Cortes for three years of Arraez. The Trade Values site thinks that one favors the Yankees and I'm inclined to agree given Arraez's limited game and the gap in arbitration numbers (projected $5M vs. $3.5M in 2023), which only gets bigger the next two years.

The Yankees could swing a Cortes for Arraez trade (with other stuff thrown in to even it out) and then sign a replacement starter. There's still a lot of really good pitchers on the market. There aren't many high contact bats though. I feel like both teams would say no to the Cortes for Arraez framework.

My sense is the Twins are open to trading Arraez for someone like Corbin Burnes or Zac Gallen, a frontline guy with multiple years of control remaining. Maybe the Yankees can swing it with a three-team trade. Directly with the Twins though? I don’t see it, not unless Minnesota really likes Schmidt, Warren, Randy Vasquez, etc. The stars don’t appear to align for this one. Alas.

White Sox getting calls about Hendriks

Now here’s a more realistic potential trade target. White Sox closer Liam Hendriks has come up in trade talks, reports Feinsand. It's unclear if the Yankees have checked in. As he tends to do, ChiSox owner Jerry Reinsdorf has clamped down on spending. FanGraphs projects their 2023 payroll at $178.9M, below their franchise record $193.4M payroll in 2022, but it was way down at $128.7M in 2021.

Trading Hendriks, 34 in February, would be a quick and easy way to shed payroll and add talent. He’s owed $14M in 2023 with a $15M option for 2024 that vests with a trade, so it’s two years and $29M ($14.5M luxury tax hit). Expensive for a reliever, yes, but reasonable considering how good Hendriks is: 2.81 ERA (2.68 FIP) with 36.2% strikeouts this year, and that was his worst season since 2018.

We have a pretty great trade benchmark for two years/postseason runs of an expensive elite reliever: Josh Hader. Hader’s not quite as expensive as Hendriks (projected $13.6M in 2023) but he is expensive. Here’s what the Padres gave up to get Hader and the Yankees’ equivalent:

• LHP Taylor Rogers: Wandy Peralta (rental above-average reliever)
• RHP Dinelson Lamet: Domingo German? (two years of a reclamation project)
• OF Esteury Ruiz: Oswaldo Cabrera (MLB-ready team top 10-ish prospect)
• LHP Robert Gasser: Randy Vasquez (team top 10-ish prospect)

Magic Wandy rules and Cabrera is going to be a great super utility guy, but that’s a lot of stuff that’s easy to part with for a difference-making reliever. Hendriks is excellent and he’s a horse who regularly picks up 4-5 out saves. I’d rather he not have to do that all the time, but he can do it. Can Hendriks pitch high leverage innings for a World Series contender? Yes, absolutely.

What about Gleyber Torres for Hendriks? It's two years of Torres for two years of Hendriks and the money more or less matches up (Torres is looking at something like $24M over the next two years through arbitration), and the White Sox don’t have a second baseman at the moment. Also, they did the MLB reliever for MLB position player trade last offseason with Craig Kimbrel for A.J. Pollock. Torres for Hendriks would be along those lines.

Because the Yankees are so good at finding quality relievers, I really don’t like the idea of giving up Torres for Hendriks, even with Hendriks being as good as he is. I’d rather give up prospects and add Hendriks to the roster alongside Torres. That’s just me though, and I can see how the Torres for Hendriks framework would appeal to both teams. It fits, yeah.

I am not at all opposed to a big money reliever and it’s not like this is a 4-5 year commitment. And the Yankees are in a place where they’re not desperate for bullpen help. They seem to unearth a quality reliever or two every year. If the White Sox are desperate to dump salary and will move Hendriks for 75 cents on the dollar, the Yankees can pounce. And if not, then the Yankees can stick with what they have or look elsewhere. No biggie, though my interest is piqued.

Miscellany

The Yankees have met with Kodai Senga’s representatives (per Martin) and are expected to meet with Nimmo (per Heyman) during the Winter Meetings. Given all the rumors, I assume they’ve met with Scott Boras about Rodon as well. Cashman made it sound like they’re waiting for Judge’s decision before moving on to other large matters and yeah, that tracks … And finally, Chris Kirschner (subs. req’d) says the Yankees have checked in on Tommy Kahnle. I am pro-Tommy Tightpants (I signed him as part of my Offseason Plan) and would welcome his return as long. You can never have enough bat-missers in the bullpen and Kahnle tends to get a lot of ground balls too.

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