December 5th, 2022: Judge, Reynolds, Donaldson, Hicks, Torres, Britton, Rodon

Good thing I ran that Jacob deGrom vs. Max Scherzer poll Friday morning, eh? That one avoided the Content Graveyard by a few hours. What’s the point of having a cartoonishly rich owner who spends $141.3M on this if he’s not gonna make sure the beloved homegrown ace finishes his career in a Mets uniform? Whatever. Not my monkey, not my circus. The Winter Meetings are underway and I figured I’d get this post out there as soon as possible. I’m gonna see where the rumors and transactions take us this week rather than commit to the usual Tuesday and Friday post schedule. Sound good? Good. Let’s get to it.

1. Latest hot stove rumors. Like I said, the Winter Meetings are now underway, so the rumors and transactions will pick up soon. For whatever reason the Winter Meetings end Wednesday this year, not Thursday, which robs us of a few hours of hot stove craziness (everyone used to go home after the Rule 5 Draft on Thursday morning, so it’s not like it was a full day). Let’s get to the rumors.

The latest on Judge

Nothing official, but it feels like Aaron Judge will sign this week. The Winter Meetings are in San Diego, so West Coast time, which means Judge’s decision could come when much of the fan base is asleep like Gerrit Cole in 2019 (Cole signed at 11:57pm ET). Judge signing and then having the press conference at the Winter Meetings feels like a thing that will happen.

Last week we heard the Yankees made Judge an offer “in the neighborhood” of eight years and $300M. Now here is a recap of the last few days of Judge rumors:

• The Yankees offered between $288M and $304M across eight years and the Giants are expected to offer $300M+ soon, per Bob Nightengale. Nightengale’s track record with this stuff is spotty, and the $288M to $304M range is a difference of $2M a year.
• It “appears increasingly likely” Judge will get a nine-year deal, per Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d). The Yankees and Giants are in, the Dodgers are believed to be in on a short-term deal with a high annual salary, and few other teams are involved too.
• Some with the Yankees believe Hal Steinbrenner is willing to chase Judge in a way Brian Cashman is not, per Buster Olney (subs. req’d). Not the firmest rumor, but whatever.

A nine-year contract feels inevitable. I first mentioned nine years as a possibility in September at CBS and said I expect the ninth year to be what wins the bidding in my Offseason Plan. If the Giants are serious, they have eight years on the table too. Trying to win the bidding by upping the average annual value slightly is too risky. The extra year is what decides this thing.

What happens if the Giants offer nine years? President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has avoided long-term contracts his entire career, so it's likely ownership is calling the shota with Judge. Owners tend to do crazy things with contracts, either because they don’t know the market or because it’s a trivial sum of money to them, or both. I honestly have no idea what happens if the Giants go to nine years.

As for Hal being more willing to chase Judge than Cashman, I mean, duh. Cashman’s job is to take whatever budget ownership gives him and put a contending team on the field. Hal’s job is to make the Yankees as profitable as possible. Remember what he said in Spring Training?

“Look, (the luxury tax is) a consideration,” Steinbrenner told Dan Martin. “That’s my job every year: To make sure we’re financially responsible. We’ve got a lot of partners and banks and bond holders and things like that that I answer to. At the same time, it’s always our goal to field a championship team.”

Judge is the Yankees’ biggest cash cow, their greatest since Derek Jeter, and those “partners and banks and bonds holders and things like that” will not be happy if he leaves because of a few million a year, or because the Yankees refuse to commit $38M or so to their 2031 payroll (the ninth year) because it would be a bad baseball decision. Hal doesn’t see Judge as a baseball player. He sees him as dollar signs and he doesn’t want those dollar signs walking out the door. Of course Hal wants Judge back more than Cashman.

Rosenthal’s report that it “appears increasingly likely” Judge will get nine years combined with mystery teams (the other unnamed teams in the mix) entering the discussion leads me to believe Judge’s free agency is nearing an end. Mystery teams and “it’ll take the extra year to get it done” reports are typically 11th hour tactics to get teams to up their offers one last time. I think we get Judge’s decision this week one way or another. I hope we do.

Reynolds requests trade

Finally, a hot stove happening made specifically for me. Pirates outfielder and personal fave Bryan Reynolds requested a trade over the weekend. The team confirmed it and Jon Heyman said the request was made after the two sides reached an “impasse” in contract extension talks*. I imagine the other 29 teams have all since reached out to Pirates GM Ben Cherington.

"While it is disappointing, this will have zero impact on our decision-making this offseason or in the future,” the Pirates said in a statement. “Our goal is to improve the Pirates for 2023 and beyond. With three years until he hits free agency, Bryan remains a key member of our team. We look forward to him having a great season for the Pirates."

* Heyman says the Pirates offered Reynolds the largest contract in franchise history, which would be more impressive if the current record wasn’t the $70M contract they gave Ke’Bryan Hayes last year. $70M. Incredible. Anyway, the damage control leaks have already started.

There is no official mechanism in place for players to request trades* and the Pirates are under no obligation to trade Reynolds. That said, trade requests can create an awkward situation for all involved, including fans. This isn’t Miguel Andujar requesting a trade and then being buried out of sight in Triple-A. This is the team’s (only) star player requesting a trade. It’s a big deal.

* Not anymore, that is. Once upon a time players who were traded in the middle of a multi-year contract could request a trade after one year, and if they weren’t traded, they could elect free agency in Spring Training. Javy Vazquez did this to force his trade away from the Diamondbacks. That rule went away a few Collective Bargaining Agreements ago.

Reynolds, 28 in January, is three years away from free agency and a career .281/.361/.481 (126 wRC+) hitter in parts of four big league seasons. He started very slowly this past season (73 wRC+ in April), then slashed .272/.353/.485 (134 wRC+) the rest of the year. Reynolds also set a new career high with 27 homers despite the league home run total dropping roughly 9%.

A few things about this. One, Reynolds is a great fit for the Yankees. He’s a switch-hitter with a negligible platoon split and league average strikeout and contact rates, he has power and takes walks, he’s historically been a good defender, and he’s relatively cheap for another three years. The numbers like Reynolds better in left than center, and that’s where the Yankees can put him (at least until Harrison Bader becomes a free agent after 2023).

Two, Reynolds requesting a trade reduces Pittsburgh’s leverage, at least in theory. Ultimately, he is really freaking good and many teams will be in on him. There will be a bidding war and that will drive the price up more than the trade request will drive the price down. But, now that everyone knows he wants out, teams will probably come in lower with their initial offers.

Three, I can come up with only two recent trades involving three years/postseason runs of an All-Star caliber position player, and one is Juan Soto. Soto’s a special case who doesn’t tell us anything about what it might cost to get Reynolds. The other is Austin Meadows, who was traded for Isaac Paredes and a Competitive Balance draft pick (No. 71 overall) this past April.

The Meadows trade sets the floor for a Reynolds trade. Meadows had a career 122 wRC+ when he was traded, though he’s a lefty who struggles against lefties and needs a platoon partner, and his defense is poor. He was traded with +6.0 career WAR. Reynolds is at +13.7 WAR. Meadows also has a longer injury history. He’s a more limited player and Reynolds should fetch a larger return. Getting Reynolds for the Meadows package would be a minor miracle.

(As I write this Mark Feinsand reports the Athletics are getting closer to a Sean Murphy trade. Murphy is an All-Star caliber player with three years of control. He'll help set the market for Reynolds.)

And four, Cherington joined the Pirates in Nov. 2019 and every time he’s traded away a core player (Josh Bell, Adam Frazier, Starling Marte, Joe Musgrove, Jacob Stallings, Jameson Taillon), he took a quantity over quality package. Every single time. He took a package of multiple good prospects with an emphasis on young lower minors kids (i.e. pre-breakout prospects) rather than that one great prospect, plus secondary stuff.

The Astros and Orioles did the same early in their rebuilds as a way to build organizational depth and it’s kinda sorta working for Cherington and the Pirates. Catcher Endy Rodriguez (Musgrove trade) is arguably their best prospect, shortstop Liover Peguero (Marte trade) is top 10 in the system, and former Yankees prospect Roansy Contreras had some good moments in 2022.

I don’t know about you, but I would greatly prefer giving up four good prospects to get Reynolds than parting with one or two great prospects, especially if we’re talking about lower minors kids who are years away from the big leagues. Roderick Arias and Luis Serna instead of Oswald Peraza? Sign me up. I've seen enough years of his core wasted. Do what you have to do to reinforce it.

Reynolds is really good and a bidding war may force a top prospect into the trade, however. A year ago I would’ve considered giving up Anthony Volpe for Reynolds. Not now though. Volpe reached Triple-A and is on the cusp of the big leagues while Reynolds is a year closer to free agency. I wouldn’t make Peraza untouchable, but I’d try to keep him out of it too.

What about Jasson Dominguez? Dominguez’s upside is basically Reynolds, right? A productive switch-hitter who plays good defense and averages +4 WAR per 600 plate appearances? At his peak I think Dominguez will be better than that, but Dominguez’s peak is kinda far away. Are Judge and Gerrit Cole going to be in their primes when Dominguez reaches his? Probably not.

The analogy here is Justus Sheffield. Sheffield’s upside is basically James Paxton, a dominant lefty who piles up strikeouts. The Yankees didn’t want to wait around for Sheffield to turn into Paxton though, so they traded him for Paxton, who’s peak aligned better with their contention window. You could argue they should treat Dominguez and Reynolds the same way.

The Pirates lost 100 games this year but are beginning to graduate some of their top prospects to the big leagues (Contreras, Hayes, Oneil Cruz, etc.), so perhaps Cherington will shift his focus and look to acquire near-MLB-ready pieces in a Reynolds trade. That would be a little harder to swing and a lot harder to swallow for the Yankees. I dunno. I guess we’ll see.

Of course, the Yankees could simply keep all their prospects and sign an outfielder rather than trade for Reynolds. I like Brandon Nimmo but I can understand not wanting to spend $20M+ a year on him for the next 5-6 years. Andrew Benintendi? Masataka Yoshida? Cody Bellinger? I’d rather have Reynolds, but acquisition cost matters, and Reynolds may require a big prospect package. The others only cost money, and the Yankees have a lot of money.

Anyway, the Yankees reached out to the Pirates about him at the 2021 trade deadline (and maybe other times), and I’m certain they’ll do so again given their outfield situation. I hope it comes together in a not painful way. If not because another team makes an unbeatable offer (like the Mariners and Luis Castillo), then so be it. Free agency beckons.

Donaldson and Hicks available

This is not surprising in the slightest but it’s nice to have it confirmed: Josh Donaldson and Aaron Hicks are very much available this offseason as the Yankees seek to create payroll flexibility, according to Rosenthal (subs. req’d). He adds teams are willing to eat money or take back a contract in such trades, though that was a general statement more than Yankees-specific.

Hicks is owed $31.5M over the next three years (including his $1M trade bonus). I ran through a few potential trade scenarios last month and it ain’t pretty. Hicks will pick up 10-and-5 no-trade protection in August and the Yankees won’t let that happen. They’ll move him before he can block a trade and it’ll be easier to move him in the offseason than during the season, so yeah.

Donaldson is owed $29M in real money in 2023 ($21M salary plus $8M buyout of his 2023 option) and he’ll be more difficult to replace than Hicks because corner outfielders are plentiful. DJ LeMahieu’s foot is a question and starting two rookie infielders doesn’t feel like a thing the Yankees will do. Putting Isiah Kiner-Falefa at third just means the Yankees would have one of the worst third basemen in the league rather than one of the worst shortstops.

To be clear, I’m not saying the Yankees should keep Donaldson, just that he’ll be more difficult to replace than Hicks (Donaldson at least provide big value with his defense). My fear is the Yankees keep Donaldson and hope he has a bounceback season with the idea that they’ll dump him in May or June if he doesn’t. If the leash is that short, just dump him now, when it’ll be easier to find a replacement.

Anyway, Donaldson and Hicks are indeed on the block. That was expected (the Yankees tried to move both at the deadline) and the ultra-plugged-in Rosenthal confirms it. My guess – and I emphasize this is just a guess – is Hicks gets moved this offseason and Donaldson is at third base on Opening Day, but not at the end of the season.

Wong traded to Mariners

Late last week the Brewers traded second baseman Kolten Wong to the Mariners for utility guy Abraham Toro and outfielder/DH Jesse Winker. FanGraphs has Seattle’s estimated 2023 luxury tax threshold at $177.6M ($140.1M in real dollars), well under the $233M threshold. The easiest way to significantly improve their World Series odds was signing a top shortstop and moving JP Crawford to second. Instead, Kolten Wong. Talk about not taking advantage of a golden opportunity.

Anyway, this is relevant to the Yankees for two reasons. First, Wong was a potential trade target in the event of a Gleyber Torres trade. To be clear, that is my speculation. The Yankees did not have interest as far as we know, but Wong is a lefty bat who punishes righties (.277/.357/.489 and 135 wRC+ in 2022), makes a lot of contact, and has historically been very rangy at second base. That’s needed with infield shifts going away. Wong would’ve fit the Yankees. Sure.

And second, and more importantly, this presumably takes the Mariners out of the running for Torres. Seattle reportedly had interest in Gleyber, though I didn’t think they were a great trade match for the Yankees. Winker comes with a lot of red flags, their available starters are meh (Chris Flexen and Marco Gonzales), and it’s hard to trust those young outfielders (Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammell). Torres fit the Mariners well but the Mariners didn’t fit the Yankees.

We know the Marlins wanted Gleyber at the deadline and I’m sure they still have interest. Just eyeballing depth charts, the Brewers, Cubs, Giants, Red Sox, and White Sox stand out for their need at second base. Milwaukee may not have the payroll space for Torres (projected $9.8M in 2023) and I would strongly bet against a Yankees-Red Sox trade of this magnitude, limiting the market a bit.

As I’ve said, I’m not opposed to trading Torres, I just think the Yankees need to be a little careful with their infield given LeMahieu’s foot, Donaldson’s age-related risk, and the inherent uncertainty with the kids. I think Peraza and Volpe will kill it, but until they do, why knows? The Wong trade almost certainly takes the Mariners out of the running for Gleyber. If he is traded this offseason, it’ll be elsewhere.

Competitive Balance draft picks announced

Last week MLB announced the Competitive Balance draft picks. These are the extra picks given to small market teams and apparently MLB tweaked the formula, because the better the team’s record, the better their odds in the lottery now. I like that. Anything that encourages front offices to win is a-okay in my book. Here are the 14 Competitive Balance picks:

Competitive Balance Round A (after supplemental first round)
Mariners (I think this is the Prospect Promotion Incentive pick for Julio Rodriguez)
Rays
Brewers
Twins
Marlins
Tigers
Reds
Athletics

Competitive Balance Round B (after second round)
Guardians
Orioles
Diamondbacks
Rockies
Royals
Pirates

Depending where the qualified free agents sign, the first set of picks will fall somewhere in the 30s and the second set in the late 60s and early 70s, give or take. Obviously the Yankees do not get a Competitive Balance pick because of their market size, but these picks are tradable, and that’s why I’m bringing this up. The Yankees should trade for one of these picks.

I say the Yankees should trade for a draft pick(s) every year and they almost never do. These tradeable Competitive Balance picks became a thing in 2012 and only once have the Yankees traded for one. They got the No. 38 pick in the 2019 draft in the Sonny Gray trade with the Reds, and used it to take lefty T.J. Sikkema. He went to the Royals in the Andrew Benintendi trade.

A few of these picks get traded every year and they’re usually included in a larger trade. We can assign dollar values to them (it’s been done) and determine their trade value that way, but there are very few real world examples that tell us the value of these picks. It’s difficult to isolate their value based on what teams give up to get them in the real world.

Here are the Competitive Balance picks that have been traded in the last four drafts other than the Sikkema pick in the Gray trade:

• No. 37 and No. 66: Rays and Cardinals swapped picks in the Randy Arozarena trade.
• No. 40 (Athletics to Rays): Part of the Jurickson Profar three-team deal with Texas.
• No. 41 (Brewers to Rangers): Traded straight up for Alex Claudio.
• No. 64 (Brewers to Mariners): Traded with a rookie ball kid for Omar Narvaez.
• No. 66 (Twins to Dodgers): Part of the Kenta Maeda/Brusdar Graterol trade.
• No. 71 (Tigers to Rays): Traded with Isaac Paredes for Austin Meadows.

One pick was traded straight up for three years of a good middle reliever (Claudio) and the rest were part of a larger package. The Rays are fond of acquiring them and the Brewers are not against trading them. Could the Yankees trade, say, Luis Gil for a pick? Maybe a team prefers the upside of a healthy Gil in 2024 to waiting for that draft pick to become an MLB player in like 2027.

The Mariners (for immediate MLB help?), Brewers (based on history), Twins (short on top tier prospects and need trade chips?), and Rockies (clueless) stand out as candidates to trade their Competitive Balance picks. For the Yankees, it could be a way to reshuffle the roster (move a player on the 40-man bubble, etc.) and keep the prospect pipeline flowing.

I would bet against the Yankees trading for a draft pick because they’ve only traded for one in the last decade, and that was a trade they didn’t even want to have to make (they would have strongly preferred Gray pitching well and keeping him). Maybe they forfeit picks to sign a qualified free agent and want to restock the cupboard, or maybe they just realize adding draft picks is good business. Would be neat if the Yankees finally trade for one.

Miscellany

Rosenthal (subs. req’d) says Zack Britton has started his offseason throwing program and he’s seeking a one-year contract. Shoulder fatigue ended Britton’s season on Sept. 30th. He returned from Tommy John surgery on Sept. 24th and walked six of the nine batters he faced before the shoulder acted up. Britton has said he wants to stay with the Yankees and the Yankees are very fond of Britton. This feels like a late in the offseason signing, maybe even during Spring Training. If Britton gets an offer that is too good to be true elsewhere, let him go. Otherwise I think a cheap one-year reunion is in the cards … And finally, Heyman says the Yankees are more focused on Carlos Rodon than Justin Verlander. I’m gonna need to see the Yankees sign a second big money free agent to believe all this talk about them checking in on top free agents is anything more than Plan B stuff in case Judge leaves. I will happily eat crow if they re-sign Judge and then also sign Rodon or Verlander or whoever. We’ll see.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)