November 8th, 2022: World Series, Boone, Cashman, Judge, Diamondbacks

Site note: I am planning to skip the regularly scheduled post on Friday, Nov. 25th. That is two weeks from Friday and it is the day after Thanksgiving. If there is breaking news, I will happily cover it, otherwise I’m going to lay low during the long holiday weekend. Thanks as always for reading and your support. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. World Series thoughts. I guess I need to say something about the World Series, huh. It’s a minor miracle the series went long as it did when the Astros had a 5-0 lead in three of the first four games, threw a combined no-hitter, and held the Phillies to 9-for-98 (.092) in their final 20 offensive innings. All that and the Phillies were still 12 outs away from forcing a Game 7.

I don’t think Phillies manager Rob Thomson made a mistake going with Jose Alvarado against Yordan Alvarez in the sixth inning of Game 6. I mean, it was a mistake in that it didn’t work, but it was the best on-paper matchup. Zack Wheeler was coming off a bad Game 2 start in which his velocity was way down, so much so that the Phillies opted to give him extra rest rather than start him on normal rest in Game 5. He was already bleeding velocity …

… and the Astros were getting a third look at him. I don’t think this is nearly as egregious as the Blake Snell decision a few years ago. Snell was cruising and the reliever who replaced him (Nick Anderson) was having a dreadful postseason. Wheeler’s velocity was dipping, both in the game and over the last few weeks, and Alvarado’s been nails the last 2-3 months. It just didn’t work out. That’s baseball. It would be boring if everything went according to plan.

Historically, the postseason is a preview of what’s to come in the regular season. The rise in reliever usage started in October, for example. The average – average – fastball was 95.3 mph this postseason. It was 93.7 mph during the regular season. I’m not sure the league can throw that hard during the long regular season, even while shuttling guys in and out, but geez. Velocity was king in October.

On that note, I hope this postseason is a sign starting pitchers will soon return to prominence. Look at the number of five-inning starts the last few postseasons:

• 2022: 57 (71% of all starts)
• 2021: 30 (41%)
• 2020: 51 (48%)
• 2019: 49 (66%)
• 2018: 35 (53%)
• 2017: 41 (54%)
• 2016: 41 (59%)
• 2015: 54 (71%)

You have to go back almost a decade for the last time starting pitchers completed five innings as often as they did this October. Five innings is not exactly a long start either. I find baseball more enjoyable when the starting pitcher is something of a main character, and teams don't use a new reliever every inning for 5-6 innings a night. Maybe this postseason is a sign starters are making a comeback. Would be cool.

Anyway, the Astros are so good it’s obnoxious and it’s crazy we ever thought the Yankees were on their level this year. They won with a rookie shortstop (gasp!) and even though Jose Altuve was a total zero this postseason (.190/.242/.241 and 39 wRC+). Even Alvarez struggled. He hit three huge home runs and did nothing else. The Astros were still good enough to overcome that.

You don’t need me to tell you this but I will anyway: It’s absurd this championship is being framed as validation. I heard it during FOX and MLB Network postgame coverage and I’ve seen a few pieces written about it. Houston was ground zero for MLB’s two biggest cheating scandals since the Steroid Era. We don’t have to give them props and we certainly don’t have to like them now. If they’re gonna play the “us against the world” card, then I will continue being a hater.

This is the time of year when you see “lessons to learn from World Series teams” pieces but there really are no lessons. There’s no secret formula. The World Series formula is be as good at as many things as possible, build around pitchers who miss bats and hitters who barrel the ball up often, and hope it comes together at the right time. You can develop players (like the Astros) or buy free agents (like the Phillies). There’s no single right way to do this.

Anyway, the World Series is finally over (I hope playing on Nov. 5th doesn’t become an annual thing) and the Astros are champions after being the Yankees in the ALCS again, and in a perfect world that would embarrass the Yankees and lead to real changes. This is not a perfect world though, far from it, and all signs point to it being more of the same for the Yankees this offseason. Yawn.

2. Postmortem thoughts. Nearly two weeks after the Yankees played their final game, Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman held their end-of-season press conferences Friday, and they were so predictable it was depressing. Both leaned on the injury excuse for the postseason defeat (that’s loser talk, full stop) and paid lip service about needing to get better this offseason.

“We’ve been knocking on that door now for a long time. We haven’t punched through,” Boone said about the latest World Series-less season. “I certainly understand the frustration of that with everyone. We all feel that as much as everyone. The reality is we are close and we have a team that is in that conversation – realistically in that conversation.”

It’s impossible to tell whether Boone said that in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, or 2022 (it’s from 2022). “We’re close” is the go-to line but the reality is the Yankees haven’t gotten any closer since this group peaked with the ALCS Game 7 loss in 2017. Close doesn’t cut it for the fan base, but the Yankees continue to give off the impression close is good enough for them.

I’ve listened to enough of these postmortem pressers to know better than to hang on every word. The Yankees will paint everything in a positive light (I thought Boone and Cashman were overly defensive when pushed about Isiah Kiner-Falefa, much more than usual) and say nothing controversial. I get it. What they say and how they feel are different things, and they’re only going to project positivity.

At the same time, if there were ever an offseason to sit up there and say “we’re not making any progress and need to reevaluate how we do things,” this was it. Cashman defended the team’s process, which was straight up Raysian, but the results speak for themselves. These Yankees have a ceiling. They hit it every October. Do they want to break through? I can’t tell.

The end-of-season talk was the same old, same old, and business as usual comes across as complacency. That perceived complacency is feeding my growing apathy, and if I feel like this, I can’t imagine how more casual fans feel. The Yankees have grown way too comfortable with losing every year to a team that operates the same way they do, only better.

Here are the press conference videos if you can stomach them: Boone and Cashman. There were three pieces of actual news delivered Friday, either directly or indirectly:

• Cashman still does not have a new contract. His previous contract expired Oct. 31st and he’s working without one, which he’s done several times in the past.
• DJ LeMahieu is seeing specialists about his foot to determine the best course of action. Surgery is still on the table but they’re hoping he can avoid it.
• Luis Severino’s $15M club option will be picked up. There’s a $2.75M buyout, so it’s really a $12.25M decision. (It was officially picked up Monday.)

Picking up Severino’s option is in no way a surprise and sooner or later they’ll have to make a call on LeMahieu's foot (preferably sooner). As for Cashman, he may not have a new contract, but he’s obviously coming back. He wouldn’t be up there representing the organization and talking about their pro scouting meetings and offseason preparation and all that otherwise.

Could Hal Steinbrenner change his mind and decide to move on from Cashman? Of course, but in that case the Yankees would put themselves far behind the 8-ball. The offseason is already underway! The Yankees would have to conduct a proper GM search (not a quick process) while also handling the usual offseason business, including negotiating with Aaron Judge.

You don’t lose the ALCS, sit around for two weeks, then decide to can the GM. I mean, Hal could, he owns the team and can do whatever he wants, but that is not how these things usually work. A GM change would have been put into motion not long after the season ended. Cashman is very clearly coming back even though he doesn’t have a new contract yet.

“Of course I’d like to stay, but we have not had any further discussions on that,” Cashman said. “I’m dealing with a lot of other employment stuff with other people. All in due time. We’ll see how that plays out.”

Boone and Cashman said exactly what I thought they’d say Friday and it was still a bummer. I no longer want to be told the Yankees are close or that they’re doing everything they can to improve when they’ve cut every corner the last three years, and I know I’m not alone. I know the Yankees are really good and I appreciate it. But you can’t build your brand around 27 rings bro and expect the fan base to accept the same tired tropes year after year.

3. The case against re-signing Judge. Aaron Judge is currently not a New York Yankee. He’s not anything at the moment. He’s unemployed. Judge and 130 others became free agents this past weekend, and while the Mets moved quickly to re-sign Edwin Diaz, that’s an outlier. It’s rare players pass up the opportunity to test the open market when they get this close.

I expect the Yankees to re-sign Judge but I don’t expect it to happen quickly, and really, do I need to explain why re-signing him would be a good idea? Judge is a great player, one of the 5-10 best in the world, and even though he’ll probably never do that again, he’s never not produced at an MVP level when healthy. He turns 31 in April and is in his prime, and for the Yankees, he’s their biggest draw since Derek Jeter. This dude pays for himself.

The case for re-signing Judge is obvious. I just made it in a single paragraph (also, imagine the offense without him?). In the interest of being a full service blog, let’s take a little time to make the case against re-signing Judge. I am against being against re-signing Judge, but squint your eyes and there are valid reasons to think the Yankees are better off walking away. Let’s dig in.

Injury history

From 2018-20, Judge played only 242 of 384 possible regular season games, or 63%. He’s been healthy the last two years (305 of 324 possible games with just a 10-day stint on the COVID list), but there is an injury history here, and it dates back a ways. Judge’s injury history:

• 2013: Did not play after the draft because of a quad strain.
• 2016: Missed three weeks with a knee injury in Triple-A, then missed the end of the MLB season with an oblique strain.
• 2017: Hurt his shoulder crashing into the wall and needed offseason surgery.
• 2018: Missed close to two months with a broken wrist.
• 2019: Missed two months with an oblique strain, then broke a rib diving for a ball late in the season.
• 2020: Would have missed the start of the season with the broken rib if not for the pandemic shutdown, also had two stints (one month total) on the injured list with calf problems.

The 2016 knee injury happened when Judge dove for a ball on the warning track. The broken wrist in 2018 happened on a hit by pitch. That stuff, as well as hurting your shoulder crashing into the wall and breaking a rib diving for a ball, are baseball injuries. They’re not chronic injuries that keep popping up. They’re one-time occurrences that stem from playing hard.

That said, there’s also a lot of muscle pulls in there, and Judge is a big dude with big muscles. He has plenty of muscle to pull. The Yankees have improved their injury prevention under training and fitness guru Eric Cressey …

• 2022: 1,311 man-games missed
• 2021: 1,582 man-games missed (Cressey’s first 162-game season)
• 2019: 2,129 man-games missed (last year before Cressey)

… and training methods have never been better, so that’s a reason to believe Judge will be able to avoid injuries in the future. Then again, players generally do not get healthier as they get older, and the best predictor of future injury is past injury. Judge is on the wrong side of 30 and he comes with a long enough injury history that it’s a red flag. It is. The best ability is availability and Judge hasn’t always provided it.

The money will prevent the Yankees from doing other things

The Yankees passed on Carlos Correa, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and others the last few years under the guise of “we need to lock up Judge.” That won’t stop once they actually lock Judge up. The argument will just shift from “we have to lock up Judge” to “we locked up Judge.” They will continue to use him as an excuse to avoid spending in other ways.

(Get excited, we’re only two years away from “we can’t sign Juan Soto because we have to lock up Anthony Volpe.”)

Under Hal Steinbrenner, the Yankees have not operated with a payroll befitting the sport’s most popular team, and I say this confidently because the Dodgers and Mets outspent them (by a lot) this past season. There is no chance – zero – the Yankees don’t have the wherewithal to spend the way the Dodgers and Mets do. Hal chooses not to and he owns the team, so it is what it is.

So, unless Hal suddenly decides to run a payroll commensurate with revenue every year (not just one year, every year), there will be a limit on spending, and every dollar the Yankees spend on Judge is a dollar they can’t spend on someone else. For argument’s sake, let’s say Judge gets $36M a year. The Yankees would have this on the books the next four years:

• Aaron Judge: $36M
• Gerrit Cole: $36M
• Giancarlo Stanton: $22M
• DJ LeMahieu: $15M

That’s $108M per year on four players on the wrong side of 30, or 42% of a $260M payroll. Would it be better to avoid another huge contract and instead spread the money out? I could be, yeah, though it is easier said than done. One +6 WAR player is not the same thing as three +2 WAR players. Great players tend to be great investments. Good players are more hit and miss.

With few exceptions the Yankees have operated in the $200M to $260M payroll range since 2005 (!) and the upcoming luxury tax thresholds suggest that will continue to be the case. That means Judge will eat up a large chunk of available payroll and limit other moves. This is an ownership problem, not a Judge problem, but it is something that must be considered.

Decline years are ahead

Yep. Can’t really argue otherwise. Every so often you run into a Nelson Cruz, but players in their 30s typically perform worse than they did in their 20s, and Judge turns 31 in April. Here’s a graph (via Chet Gutwein):

On top of normal age-related decline, Judge is 6-foot-7, and there’s basically zero track record of dudes this size having success into their 30s (think Mike Morse and Richie Sexson). I’d argue that, given his athleticism and career to date, the best comp for Judge is not Morse or Sexson. It’s Hall of Famer Dave Winfield, who was listed at 6-foot-6 during his playing days.

Judge has been an outlier literally his entire life and also in his MLB career up to this point. Why would that be any different as he gets deeper into his 30s? Father Time comes for everyone though, and history tells us that a 7-9 year contract covering most of his 30s is likely to have more bad years than great ones. The Volpe era could be ugly when Cole, Judge, and Stanton are all making huge dollars at age 34+. It’s not that far away.

The Yankees need to diversify their offense

Real talk: This is the argument against signing Judge that I buy the most. It’s not that the lineup is too right-handed in general. It’s that Judge and Stanton and Josh Donaldson (and before him Luke Voit and Gary Sanchez) are all the same kind of righty hitters. They have huge power, but are all susceptible to velocity upstairs, and they have worse than average in-zone contact rates*.

* That doesn’t apply to Judge. He’s gotten his contact rates up to league average the last two years. He doesn’t swing and miss nearly as much as he did earlier in his career, or as much as those other guys.

The argument here is you let Judge walk and replace him with an elite lefty bat with power and great contact rates. The problem is those guys are rare and there aren’t any available this free agent period. Had the timelines lined up, letting Judge leave so you could instead sign Freddie Freeman or Corey Seager to diversify the lineup would have made baseball sense. But letting Judge leave to sign Brandon Nimmo and/or Andrew Benintendi? No, come on.

Given the way the Yankees have operated the last few years, it would be difficult to buy the “we let Judge walk to avoid getting locked into too many similar righties” excuse. They haven’t earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to decisions that can plausibly be considered a money saver. Diversifying the lineup feels like a must, but with Judge being as good as he is, you keep him and diversify around him. This isn’t the guy you replace.

* * *

The Yankees offered Judge seven years and $213.5M in Spring Training and they are not dumb. They know him and his medicals and his injury history better than anyone. They baked all that into the cake and they still offered seven years covering his age 31-37 seasons. They considered all the long-term risks and were still willing to do seven years at big dollars.

Every long-term contract comes with risk. That’s just the way it is. There are baseball reasons to let Judge leave, namely his age and decline risk, and the need to diversify the lineup, but I think they all fall short of the “okay, let’s let him walk” threshold. The upside is immense (MVP caliber play, incredible off-the-field value) and outweighs the risk. The Yankees believe so given the offer they made. Whether they up their offer accordingly is another matter.

4. Scouting the Trade Market: Arizona Diamondbacks. On paper, the Yankees and D’Backs are excellent trade partners. Arizona is overloaded with young MLB ready outfielders, and they’re almost all lefty hitters too. The Yankees badly need a lefty hitting outfielder (possibly two if Aaron Judge leaves). Furthermore, the D’Backs are willing to trade from their outfield surplus.

“You take a left-handed hitting outfielder and turn him into a right-handed hitting slugger, yeah, I can see that puzzle coming together,” GM Mike Hazen told Nick Piecoro last month. “… It’s not going to be taking one of those guys and trading them for prospects in that type of way.”

Arizona went 74-88 this past season, and while that stinks, they went 52-110 the year before. A 22-win improvement is good progress. The D’Backs have young talent and Hazen indicated they are ready to add MLB pieces around that young talent. Specifically, he mentioned a righty bat and late inning bullpen help as priorities this winter, plus general pitching depth.

As much as it would hurt to give up Mike King or Jonathan Loaisiga or Ron Marinaccio, don’t the Yankees have to do it if it nets a young and controllable outfielder? I think so. What the Yankees can send the D’Backs for one of their young outfielders is a topic for another time. For now, let’s look over Arizona’s young outfielders and see which ones make sense for the Yankees.

LHB Corbin Carroll

2022 stats: .307/.425/.610 (158 wRC+), 24 HR, 31 SB, 24.2 K%, 15.2 BB% in 441 PA (AA/AAA)

I listed these players alphabetically and it’s fitting we start with Carroll, one of the most exciting prospects in baseball. He is a Grady Sizemore clone with an electric power/speed/defense skill set. Carroll turned only 22 in August and he was impressive during his late season cameo this year, hitting .260/.330/.500 (130 wRC+) in 32 big league games.

MLB.com and Baseball America (subs. req’d) rank Carroll as the No. 3 and No. 5 prospect in the game, respectively. Here’s a piece of MLB.com’s scouting report (here’s video):

Carroll has all the qualities scouts look for when projecting a player as a plus hitter. He has an advanced approach and controls the zone well, showing the ability to make adjustments and excellent swing decisions at a young age. Carroll makes consistent hard contact and drives the ball to all fields from the left side of the plate. The strength Carroll has added since signing has already helped him unlock more power … Carroll’s plus-plus speed is a game-changing tool … That speed also gives him plenty of range defensively, where he’s an easy plus defender in center field … Developing more power could heighten a presently lofty ceiling, as he already shows the hitting ability, speed and defensive prowess needed to become a big league regular.

The D’Backs have a type and that type is uber-athletic, undersized (Carroll’s listed a 5-foot-10) hitters with short levers who are direct to the ball. I got a peek at Double-A and Triple-A Statcast data recently and Carroll was one of the best breaking ball hitters at those two levels in terms of not chasing out of the zone, making contact in the zone, and barreling the ball up when he did make contact. And that wasn’t even adjusted for being so young for the levels.

About the only negative here is Carroll blew out his shoulder on a home run swing last May and missed the rest of the season following surgery. He came back so well this year that the only concerns about the shoulder now are of the “well it gave out once before, it might give out again” variety. Everything about the kid says future All-Star. You can’t take your eyes off him when he’s on the field.

I assume the D’Backs are planning to keep Carroll and build around him, and I know Hazen said he won’t trade an outfielder for a prospect, but does Carroll for Anthony Volpe get his attention? Top 10 prospect for top 10 prospect, righty hitting shortstop to a team that needs righty bats and a long-term shortstop, and a lefty hitting outfielder to a team that needs a long-term lefty hitting outfielder? The Yankees could then put Oswald Peraza at short long-term. This feels like the kinda trade both teams would say not to, but hmmm.

LHB Dominic Canzone

2022 stats: .299/.367/.541 (124 wRC+), 22 HR, 15 SB, 19.0 K%, 8.5 BB% (436 PA at AA/AAA)

Canzone’s numbers are inflated a bit by the very hitter friendly environment in Reno (Arizona’s Triple-A affiliate hit .273/.352/.451 as a team in 2022), but he can hit, and he fits the platoon corner outfielder profile to a T. Think Matt Joyce, who hit righties at an All-Star level at his peak and played good enough defense.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Canzone as the No. 22 prospect in Arizona’s system in their midseason update. Here’s the chunk of the scouting report (here’s video):

The lefthanded-hitting Canzone is a bat-first prospect with the potential to impact the game with his power and patience. Though he had below-average walk and chase rates in 2021, those numbers improved after an initial adjustment period at both High-A and Double-A. An adjustment to the finish on his swing helped him get more of his hard-hit balls in the air and toning down his leg kick helped him stay more under control. He likely profiles best in left field due to his below-average speed and arm strength. He was working out at first base in the fall in hopes of increasing his versatility … Canzone is an advanced prospect with a bat that appears close to being major league-ready.

Canzone did what he had to do in Triple-A this summer and he turned 25 in August, so it’s time to get this show on the road. He strikes me as the kinda non-top prospect the Rays would get in a minor trade, then coax three productive years out of him by never letting him face lefties before trading him away when he reaches arbitration.

The downside is Canzone’s defense is limited, and shaky left field defense is not a great fit for Yankee Stadium’s spacious left field. He also doesn’t bring much to the table on the bases, and he’s going to need a platoon partner. The lefty bat fits what the Yankees need well. The rest of the package is uninteresting and lacking.

The D’Backs have a ton of outfielders and a crowded 40-man roster, and Canzone will be Rule 5 Draft eligible this winter. They already have eight outfielders (all with MLB time) on the 40-man. Do they really want to add another? They’re said to be looking for bullpen help. Maybe they would have interest in someone like Greg Weissert in a roster cleanup move. I dunno.

LHB Dominic Fletcher

2022 stats: .312/.378/.486 (117 wRC+), 12 HR, 9 SB, 19.1 K%, 9.3 BB% in 591 PA (AA/AAA)

Fletcher is David’s younger brother and like his brother he’s short (listed at 5-for-9) and pesky, and he endears himself to fans and evaluators with his hard-nosed play. Dominic doesn’t make as much contact as David (few do) but he has more power, and he’s a lefty hitter who has the platoon advantage more often than not.

With the big Triple-A season, Fletcher shot up prospect lists this year. MLB.com ranks him the No. 13 prospect in Arizona’s system. Here’s part of their scouting report (here’s video):

Arizona likes Fletcher’s left-handed swing and is pleased with the way he uses the entire field. The 5-foot-9, 185-pounder has surprising power for his size and could develop into a 15-homer guy in the Majors. He’s still improving and fine-tuning his approach, but overall Fletcher is a polished hitter who puts together quality at-bats. He makes up for his average speed with tremendous instincts. Fletcher consistently gets good jumps and some club officials believe he’s one of the best defenders in the entire organization. He’s primarily played center, but has the skill set to be an above-average defender at all three outfield spots with a strong, accurate arm … Fletcher has a floor of a fourth outfielder and the D-backs have fallen in love with the way he plays.

Similar to Canzone, Fletcher turned 25 a few weeks ago, and he likely would have gotten a cup of coffee in September if the D’Backs weren’t so deep in outfielders. Canzone and Fletcher are such obvious trade candidates this winter. They’re good prospects but far down the depth chart, and those are the guys smart teams trade to improve other parts of the roster.

These “okay tools that play up because of great instincts” overachiever types always make me a little nervous. Every once in a while one of them turns in Steven Kwan, but Kwan’s track record as a productive hitter was much longer than Fletcher’s (Fletcher had a 99 wRC+ in a full year at Double-A in 2021), and he’s younger too (by three days). I wouldn’t love going into next year with Fletcher as Plan A in left field, but he would certainly make sense as a depth addition.

RHB Stone Garrett

2022 stats: .275/.332/.568 (112 wRC+), 28 HR, 15 SB, 23.9 K%, 7.5 BB% in 440 PA (AAA)

If nothing else, Garrett is a good story. He was on the wrong end of Josh Naylor’s knife prank in 2016 and out of baseball completely by 2020. Garrett worked in real estate for a year, reached out to a scout he knew through LinkedIn, and that led to a tryout and later a minor league contract with the D’Backs. Garrett, 27 next month, reached the big leagues in August (here’s video).

Even at his prospect peak there were concerns about Garrett’s approach, propensity to swing and miss, and ability to play anything more than passable defense in left. His swinging strike rates in the minors have always been very high, up around 20%, and the 27/3 K/BB in 84 big league plate appearances wasn’t unexpected. Garrett has legit power, but a righty bat with swing and miss concerns is decidedly not what the Yankees need, so Garrett is a poor fit.

LHB Jake McCarthy

2022 stats: .283/.342/.427 (116 wRC+), 8 HR, 23 SB, 21.5 K%, 6.5 BB% in 354 PA (MLB)

Last year the Yankees had several prospects return from the lost pandemic season with way more power than they’d ever shown previously (Oswaldo Cabrera, Diego Castillo, Hoy Jun Park, etc.). McCarthy did that with the D’Backs. He overhauled his swing during his home workouts and hit 15 homers in 84 minor league games in 2021 after hitting 12 homers total from 2016-19.

Now 25, McCarthy’s newfound power has come with more swing and miss, though not so much that it could derail him. He’s also a gifted defender. Here’s Eric Longenhagen (here’s video):

He now has a sizable leg kick and has become capable of lifting pitches in the middle third of the zone, including surprising power to the opposite field gap … While McCarthy’s swing is more athletic than it used to be, he still can’t lift pitches in the lower third of the zone and big league arms will likely be able to limit his damage by living down there. He still has roster utility as an okay lefty hitter who can play a good center field, and there’s a chance he continues to refine his stroke in a way that creates more meaningful impact on balls in play, but for now we have McCarthy evaluated as a fifth outfield contributor.

That was written before this season and McCarthy’s success has taken him out of fifth outfielder territory. He looks to be quite a bit better than that. Maybe he’s only the third best outfielder and a 7-8-9 hitter on a World Series team, but he’s a bona fide big leaguer. Also, McCarthy had no platoon split this past season. This is freaky:

• vs. RHB: .284/.344/.427 (116 wRC+) with 21.6 K% and 6.8 BB%
• vs. LHB: .281/.337/.427 (115 wRC+) with 21.5 K% and 5.8 BB%

Not the biggest sample, but still, freaky. McCarthy uses the opposite field a ton and he had a 49.2% ground ball rate this season, so this isn’t made for Yankee Stadium pull power. Still, the scouting reports say there’s real power, and it comes with good defense and speed, and without excessive swing and miss. Statcast, meanwhile, gives a big fat meh:

There’s more to life than those Statcast graphs, but they are a record of what happened on the field, and a lot of what happened on the field put McCarthy on the lower end of the MLB player pool. He’s a young player who still doesn’t have a full season under his belt. Improvement is possible if not to be expected. For now though, Statcast doesn’t love him.

Prying McCarthy loose won’t be easy because he has five years of control remaining and is a productive big leaguer. The Yankees don’t have a righty bat to give the D’Backs and matching up with pitching is easier said than done. Like Hazen said, they’re not looking to add prospects. The D’Backs want MLB talent. McCarthy interests me though. He’s an arrow up player who’s made good progress the last two years, and it still feels like there’s another level he can get to by elevating more.

LHB Pavin Smith

2022 stats: .220/.300/.367 (87 wRC+), 9 HR, 1 SB, 24.2 K%, 10.1 BB% in 277 PA (MLB)

Smith, 27 in February, is a natural first baseman who has mostly played the corner outfield the last two seasons, and he’s been a bit worse than league average in close 1,000 big league plate appearances. A bad wrist injury wrecked his 2022 (he broke bones and tore ligaments diving for a ball) but even when healthy in 2021, Smith was pretty underwhelming (here’s video).

Smith was the No. 7 pick in the 2017 draft and was viewed as a reach at the time because there is no standout tool (he was a so-called “safe” college hitter). He’s very disciplined at the plate, almost passive, and there is some hard-hit ability. That’s really it though. Smith has been just okay against righties, so it’s not like he could be a platoon monster if used correctly.

There might be some untapped potential here because Smith’s top end exit velocities are very good and he knows a ball from a strike. He’s not going to help his team defensively though, and he’s not going to add anything on the bases either. There’s enough here that a team could talk itself into trading for Smith and trying to coach him up, and hey, it might work. He’s gotta hit though. There aren’t enough secondary skills to carry what his bat has been to date.

LHB Alek Thomas

2022 stats: .231/.275/.344 (71 wRC+), 8 HR, 4 SB, 18.0 K%, 5.4 BB% in 411 PA (MLB)

Entering the season Carroll and Thomas were 1A and 1B in Arizona’s farm system, then Carroll pulled away while Thomas had growing pains in the big leagues. That said, the kid is only 22 and he reached the big leagues before being Rule 5 Draft eligible as a high school draft pick, which is rare and impressive. He did it even after losing a season to the pandemic too.

Every scouting publication had Thomas as one of the top 25 prospects in baseball entering the season. Here’s what Eric Longenhagen wrote about him (here’s video):

Wielding one of the more athletic and dynamic swings in all the minors, Thomas’ cut is a lefty mirror image of Jose Altuve‘s scissor kick, and he’s adept at varying the pace and direction of his stride depending on pitch type and location while the ball is mid-flight. The sheer effort and explosion in Thomas’ swing does lead to some swing-and-miss, especially against vertically-oriented fastball/curveball combinations, but his ability to make in-flight adjustments, his plate coverage, and the sheer quality of his contact lead to plus hit tool projection. That plus his speed (he routinely runs 4.1 seconds from home to first) makes him a candidate to lead off for the D-backs from some time in 2022 (though Thomas doesn’t technically have to be put on the 40-man until after this season) until whenever Corbin Carroll arrives. Defensively, Thomas is okay in center field but not great, and his arm strength pushes him to left field if/when the team can roster a better center field defender. His speed allows him to glide from gap to gap with ease, but Thomas looks much less comfortable going back on balls straight over his head. Were we to list him as a center fielder, his defense grades would be 45/50, but in left field we think his speed makes him a plus glove. The total package is that of an above-average regular and a foundational piece of Arizona’s future.

Looking beyond the ugly slash line this year, Thomas posted league average contact and chase rates, which is encouraging for a rookie. His top end exit velocities were also strong. He’s not the first highly regarded prospect to struggle in his first taste of the big leagues and he won’t be the last. The tools and pedigree suggest Thomas has a chance to be an impact player.

Whether the poor showing this season is enough to discourage the D’Backs to the point where they’re willing to trade Thomas, or even if they still believe in him and are willing to trade him anyway, is the great unknown. The Yankees could really use a young lefty hitting outfielder with contact skills and Arizona has two in Carroll and Thomas. I’m envious.

LHB Daulton Varsho

2022 stats: .235/.302/.443 (106 wRC+), 27 HR, 16 SB, 24.5 K%, 7.8 BB% in 592 PA (MLB)

You may remember Varsho from my 2020-21 Offseason Plan. He has long been a personal favorite and he had the quietest +5 WAR season in baseball this year (+4.6 fWAR and +4.9 bWAR to be exact) while playing 31 games at catcher, 54 in center field, and 71 in right field. The AVG and OBP are an eyesore, but they’ll get better with experience (here’s video).

I’m biased because I’m a Varsho fan but a lefty with 25-homer pop, 15-steal ability, defense that is so good he was a Gold Glove finalist at two positions (right field and super utility), and the ability to cover you behind the plate is the kinda player every team could use. He’s a video game player. You’re not supposed to catch and play center field and also contribute offensively.

Varsho, 26, was the last player to reach Super Two status this offseason. The Super Two cutoff is set at the top 22% of players in service time between 2-3 years and he was the 22% cutoff. MLBTR projects a $2.8M salary next year. That makes him the most expensive player in this post and also the player closest to free agency. Granted, Varsho’s not expensive and he still has four years of control, but he’s closest to having a foot out the door.

The most relevant recent trade benchmark for Varsho might be Christian Yelich, who had four years remaining on his extension (plus a fifth year club option), but was a very different hitter. He was an AVG/OBP guy whereas Varsho slugs. Point is, it’s really difficult to come up with a trade package for Varsho. It’s not often teams trade four years of good young position players.

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Did you click on any of the videos I linked? I wasn’t kidding when I said the D’Backs are drawn to undersized hitters with short levers and compact swings. These dudes all look the same (Carroll, Thomas, and Varsho especially). Give Arizona a truth serum and I think they’d tell you they want Carroll, Thomas, and Varsho to be their long-term outfield. McCarthy is probably fourth on the list, so that’s four outfielders for three outfield spots plus DH.

Ironically, the Yankees need lefty bats to balance their lineup, yet they don’t really have a righty bat to give the D’Backs in a trade. Giancarlo Stanton is not approving a trade to Arizona, Josh Donaldson has no value, and DJ LeMahieu is still owed $60M. Maybe Gleyber Torres fits, but Arizona already has a great second baseman signed long-term (Ketel Marte).

Perhaps this is a three-team trade scenario? Torres to a third team, third team sends a righty bat to the D’Backs, and the D’Backs send the Yankees an outfielder? Fill in the gaps as needed, etc. Arizona is a great trade fit for the Yankees. They have what the Yankees need in spades. But unless the D’Backs are willing to take prospects, I’m not sure the Yankees match up well for them. Still, it’s worth a call. Some of these outfielders would look great in pinstripes.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. The 2022 major awards finalists were announced earlier this week and yep, Aaron Judge is an AL MVP finalist. He’ll win it either unanimously or very close to it. The real race is the race for third behind Judge and Shohei Ohtani, and Yordan Alvarez is the other finalist, so he wins. No other Yankees among the finalists, which isn’t a surprise. Aaron Boone sneaking into the top three of the AL Manager of the Year voting was the only shot at a second finalist … The Yankees need a new assistant hitting coach. Hensley Meulens has joined the Rockies as their primary hitting coach, the team announced earlier this week. I know Bam Bam was very popular with the players, but hitting coaches come and go. Not too long ago Eno Sarris found the average hitting coach tenure is only 1.4 years nowadays, if you can believe that. So the Yankees have to find a new assistant hitting coach. Add that to the offseason to-do list … Baseball America began their annual series breaking down the top 10 prospects in each organization earlier this week and the Yankees were the first team up. The full piece is behind the paywall, but the top 10 is all over social media, so I don’t feel too guilty listing it here:

1. SS Anthony Volpe
2. SS Oswald Peraza
3. OF Jasson Dominguez
4. OF Everson Pereira
5. C Austin Wells
6. OF Spencer Jones
7. RHP Will Warren
8. RHP Drew Thorpe
9. RHP Randy Vasquez
10. OF Estevan Florial

I’d have Dominguez over Peraza but the larger point is the top 10 really thins out after those top six hitters. The system isn’t as deep as it was a year or two ago because the Yankees traded a lot of prospects at the last two deadlines, which I’m fine with, except the trades haven’t worked out all that well. Also, Wells missed about a month this summer after taking a foul tip to the groin, and buried in the scouting report is word he suffered a (gulp) ruptured testicle. Poor guy. Wells made it back and mashed the rest of the season, so it seems he’s over it. But still, ouch … And finally, I will point you back to the Offseason Calendar one more time just to remind you there are a few important dates coming up later this week. Come Friday’s post, there will be actual news to discuss.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)