October 26th, 2022: World Series, Judge, Rizzo, LeMahieu, Holmes, Effross, Blake, Mailbag

The first post of the offseason. Always a weird one. We haven’t heard a peep from the Yankees since their season ended Sunday night, and if they're going to make a significant change (like firing Aaron Boone), I think Wednesday would be the day. Thursday is World Series media day and the start of MLB’s unofficial “don’t announce major news” period. Until then, let’s get to today’s post.

1. World Series thoughts. The 2022 World Series begins Friday night in Houston. Astros vs. Phillies to determine once and for all which team won the Garrett Stubbs trade. The Phillies used monster dingers, Zack Wheeler, and immaculate vibes to beat the Cardinals, Braves, and Padres. The Astros systematically dismantled the Mariners and Yankees.

The Phillies went 87-75 this season while the Astros went 106-56. My unofficial research says the 19-win gap is the largest in the World Series since the 93-win White Sox beat the 116-win Cubs in 1906. Thank the 12-team format for that. Major upsets do happen though. The 89-win Padres beat the 111-win Dodgers in the NLDS this year. The ZiPS odds:

Part of me says the Astros are going to mop the floor with the Phillies. They lost to the Braves last year, but Justin Verlander and Lance McCullers Jr. were hurt, plus Alex Bregman was playing through a wrist injury that sapped his production. I also have a hard time thinking Yordan Alvarez will go 2-for-20 in the World Series again. The Astros are so good it’s obnoxious.

Then again, another part of me says the Astros had Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke in 2019, plus a healthy Bregman and Michael Brantley, and still lost to an NL East team that was basically two great starters, two great hitters, and good vibes. This postseason in meme form (h/t Jamie Lynch):

One thing that’s kinda flying under the radar is that aside from Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins, and No. 9 hitter Brandon Marsh, the Phillies are loaded with plus hit tool guys. They can bang against top tier pitching. Wheeler and Aaron Nola can go toe-to-toe with anyone and, right now, Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez are pitching lights out. They’ve been great.

Shoutout to Kevin Long too. The former Yankees hitting coach has now taken four different teams to the World Series in the last 13 years (also 2009 Yankees, 2015 Mets, 2019 Nationals). Long has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to help contact guys tap into their power (Robbie Cano, Daniel Murphy, Howie Kendrick, etc.), so put Bryson Stott on your 2023 breakout list. They don’t put hitting coaches in the Hall of Fame, but Long has a hell of a resume.

ALCS aside, this has been the most exciting postseason in several years, I think. I don’t think we should jump the gun and say the new 12-team format rules just yet, some years the postseason is just better than others, but the first year of the new format couldn’t have worked out better for MLB. There’s a No. 6 seed in the World Series, so hey, all you teams on the fence, go for it. Just get in and you have a chance to make a good run.

I worry about the potential for teams to look at these Phillies and say look at that, 87 wins and the No. 6 seed is good enough, why spend that extra $10M to go from 90 wins to 92 wins? I think we should give teams some benefit of the doubt though. Also, the Phillies show spending money (Schwarber, Wheeler, Bryce Harper, etc.) can be very rewarding too. Spend money, win games, sell tickets and sponsorships, rinse and repeat. Winning funds winning.

If you’re reading this, then I assume you’ll pull for the Phillies in the World Series like me. I hope longtime Yankees do-it-all guy Rob Thomson gets a ring as a manager (he already has five thanks to the Yankees, but none as a manager) and I hope Harper gets a ring too. He was the most hyped baseball prospect ever and he’s lived up to it. It’s Lebron-ian. Plus the Phillies are a lot of fun. One of my editors at CBS is a Phillies fan and I’ve been living vicariously through him the last few weeks. Go Phillies, boo Astros.

2. Hot stove updates. It’s still too early for real hot stove updates, but a few bits and pieces have come out the last few days, so let’s round ‘em up.

Dodgers, Giants expected to pursue Judge

Following the Game 4 loss, Aaron Judge said he has “plenty of time” to figure out his contract situation, and again reiterated he wants to remain a Yankee. He’s just not going to give them a discount. “I've been clear about (wanting to stay) since I first wore the pinstripes, but we couldn't get something done before Spring Training and we'll see what happens," he said.

“I’d be shocked if he’s not back,” DJ LeMahieu told Greg Joyce. “But you just never know how that goes. I feel like he definitely wants to be here. But when it becomes a business, it changes a lot.”

According to Mark Feinsand, the Dodgers are expected to pursue Judge, and Mookie Betts is willing to move to second base to accommodate him (Betts has occasionally played second dating back to his Red Sox days). They would essentially let the great but not Judge-ian Trea Turner walk, slide Gavin Lux to short, put Mookie at second, and stick Judge in right.

The Giants are also expected to pursue Judge, and someone close to the team went as far as to tell Randy Miller they “won’t be underbid.” Underbid? "No one, and I mean no one, will offer Judge less!" Anyway, assuming Carlos Rodon opts out, the Giants have only $70M on the books in 2023 and only $20M in 2024. Their “build around role players and optimize usage” strategy fell flat this year and ownership is rumored to crave a bona fide star.

“The Giants are not going to stop with Judge. They have so much money freed up,” Miller’s source said. “They need a draw with the Dodgers and Padres in their division spending big money on big names. I know the Giants also are feeling pressure with the Warriors’ basketball team doing so well and spending big in the same market.”

Maybe the Giants really won’t be outbid. They offer Judge a chance to play near home too. It seems Judge is looking for maximum dollars, so he may just take the biggest offer, but keep in mind being a great Yankee means getting paid in other ways. The endorsement opportunities are great in New York. Taking a bit less to be a legacy Yankee may be the better move, financially.

Anyway, Giants: check. Dodgers: check. It won’t be long before we hear the Cubs and Mets intend to go after Judge as well, plus other teams will enter the mix. The Cardinals? Mariners? Braves? When you have your core locked up at $15/hr through 2029 like the Braves, you can afford to spend huge on a superstar when your World Series window is wide open.

I don’t get the sense Judge is in a rush to sign, and when you’ve come this far, why wouldn’t you see what’s out there? The Yankees are capital-S Screwed if Judge signs elsewhere and I think they know that, so ultimately I think he comes back. I don’t think it’ll happen quickly though, and I would expect lots and lots of rumors between now and then. These little Dodgers and Giants nuggets are just the start.

“I think that he bet on himself on the biggest stage, in the biggest market, and did it with ease. He should be rewarded as the highest paid player in the game,” Anthony Rizzo told Joyce. “... He’s the total package. The money he’s brought to this organization, to this franchise, to the game of baseball, I’m sure just the money alone in September of him chasing 62 was enough to easily pay. There’s plenty of money in this game to be spread around. I think for him, whatever he gets is going to be astronomical and he deserves it.”

Rizzo mum on opt out

Call it a player option, call it an opt out. Either way, Rizzo controls his future and could walk away from a $16M salary for 2023 this offseason. Option decisions are due five days after the end of the World Series and that’s when we’ll learn Rizzo’s decision. That’s just how it works. All decisions are announced right at the deadline, not in the days leading up to it.

“At this point, I’ll sit down with my wife and I’ll sit down with my agents and we’ll talk about all that,” Rizzo told Miller after Game 4. “I’ve told (the Yankees) since signing the deal we’re not going to talk about it until after the season. Now in the next few weeks, it’s time to talk about it.”

Rizzo, now 33, had a fine regular season, hitting .224/.338/.480 (132 wRC+) with a career high tying 32 home runs, and he figures to benefit from the new anti-shift rules that are coming next year. He also had on and off back trouble (again). There’s age and injury risk here, but Rizzo has fit in very well, and the Yankees badly need the lefty power bat. A reunion feels inevitable.

Unless his back is a bigger concern than we know, I expect Rizzo to opt out, and I expect the Yankees to make him the $19.65M qualifying offer. The Yankees would take him back on the qualifying offer in a heartbeat. It’s a relatively small raise and it’s only a one-year commitment. There are four possible outcomes with Rizzo and I’d rank them like this in order of likelihood:

1. The Yankees and Rizzo agree to a new multi-year deal (2-3 years at $16M per?).
2. Rizzo opts out and signs elsewhere (Padres?).
3. Rizzo doesn’t opt and stays with the Yankees.
4. Rizzo opts out and accepts the qualifying offer.

Rizzo had the opt out put in his contract for a reason and he wouldn’t be the first Yankee to leverage an opt out into an extension. CC Sabathia and Aroldis Chapman both did it back in the day. Unless the Yankees take a “we’re not doing anything until we know what Judge is doing” approach like they did with DJ LeMahieu two years ago (that would be a mistake, but I digress), I could see a new Rizzo deal coming together relatively quickly. It’s a good fit for both sides.

“You come to the park everyday and you know you’re going to have a lot of fans who are passionate and energetic, and it’s a lot of fun,” Rizzo told Brendan Kuty about playing in New York. “For me, I know it’s a short right field but pulling the ball, usually when it’s in the air, I usually put it in a good spot. I’ve definitely had a few homers here that were nice and I’ve had a few on the road where it’s like, ‘Man, if that was at Yankee Stadium, it’s a home run.’ It’s a fun place to come to work everyday.”

Taillon would “love to come back”

Jameson Taillon would “love to come back” to the Yankees, he told Kuty following Game 4. “I haven’t thought about it a ton but I definitely know I loved playing here. They took a chance on me coming back from rehab and elbow surgery and all that stuff. To get to come here – I had never experienced the playoffs, never experienced a winning environment and culture – I felt like I didn’t take a day for granted, showing up and putting the pinstripes on,” Taillon added.

There were bumps along the way, but Taillon threw 177.1 innings with a 3.91 ERA (3.94 FIP) this season, and that's not easy to replace. Also, Taillon turns 31 next month. Given his injury history, this might be his only chance at a nice free agent payday. Taillon would “love to come back” to the Yankees, but he has to look out for himself, and I’m not sure the Yankees will wade into the waters it’ll take to keep him (3-4 years at $12M to $14M a year maybe?). 

(The qualifying offer is another option, though teams tend to be conservative with $19.65M decisions. Wouldn’t surprise me if Taillon doesn’t get one.)

3. Injury updates. The Yankees haven’t held their end-of-season press conferences yet and that’s usually when all the injury news gets spilled. This guy played through this, that guy needs surgery, etc. The end-of-season press conference is when we found out Didi Gregorius needed Tommy John surgery, for example. Here are a few injury nuggets as we await the big reveal.

LeMahieu has fracture, ligament issue

For DJ LeMahieu to not be on the postseason roster, he must’ve been really hurting, and details on the exact nature of his right foot injury have trickled out. No one has laid it all out, but here’s what I’ve been able to gather from LeMahieu and Aaron Boone talking throughout the postseason:

• LeMahieu has a fracture and the injury presented itself as pain in his second toe. He received a cortisone shot during the All-Star break and other injections later in the season and throughout the postseason to alleviate the pain.
• Playing on the foot in August made the injury worse. LeMahieu now has a ligament issue in his foot as well, and it sounds like the ligament issue stems from changing his hitting mechanics to limit pain in the toe, and putting stress on his foot in other ways.
• LeMahieu may need surgery, though it would be a “tricky” procedure, he told Dan Martin. “That’s why I’m trying to avoid it if possible. I’d like to not do the surgery, but I also don’t want this to happen again,” LeMahieu said.

“It was a chronic, gradual thing,” LeMahieu also told Martin. “It’s been a frustrating last month and a half, not being out there. I pride myself on playing through things and being out there and being available.”

Hopefully LeMahieu can avoid surgery. You don’t want to cut into anyone unless absolutely necessary, and there’s no telling how long he would be sidelined. Spring Training is a long ways away, but going through the recovery and rehab work could take a while. I would think we’ll find out fairly soon whether LeMahieu is going under the knife. The Yankees will want to make a decision soon.

LeMahieu was great before the injury, taking a .285/.389/.424 (139 wRC+) line with more walks (13.6%) than strikeouts (12.6%) into August. He also played good to great defense at three infield positions. I’m not sure a healthy LeMahieu changes the ALCS outcome (the Yankees were more than one healthy player away from beating the Astros) but the Yankees certainly missed him.

This is the second straight season LeMahieu was unavailable down the stretch and also in the postseason. Last year it was the sports hernia, this year it’s the foot. LeMahieu turns 35 next July and I wonder if it’s time to scale back on his workload. Is the best, healthiest version of LeMahieu a 120 games a year player at this point in his career? It’s hard to take him out of the lineup when he’s going well. Sometimes the big picture has to take priority during the summer though.

Holmes had capsule strain

Clay Holmes missed the end of the regular season with a shoulder injury that, at least in Boone’s eyes, limited his availability in the ALDS. Holmes clarified his injury following the Game 3 fiasco, telling reporters he was out with a shoulder capsule strain. That’s different than the typical rotator cuff strain and comes with more catastrophic injury risk.

“It’s just super rushed and honestly that was me pushing and wanting to be in the games,” Holmes told Kristie Ackert after not being used in Game 3. “With that said, there are some parameters that need to be put around me and people need to make some decisions that as a competitor is tough to make.”

Torn shoulder capsules are usually the kiss of death. Guys suffer them, have surgery, and come back a shell of their former selves. John Danks, Rich Harden, Mark Prior, Johan Santana, and others had their careers ended by torn capsules. Treatments have gotten better (Julio Urias tore his capsule in 2017 and bounced back well) but you’d still rather not mess with that joint.

Holmes looked pretty good when he did pitch in the postseason, particularly in ALCS Game 4, when he got eight outs on 28 pitches and allowed only two of the nine he batters he faced to hit the ball out of the infield. His velocity was down from where it was before the injury is September, though it was in line with most of his season:

That big velocity spike (remember the 101.7 mph pitch to strike out Yandy Diaz?) immediately before the injury probably isn’t a coincidence. The Yankees played several tense and important games down the stretch and Holmes often found himself in the biggest situations. It’s not crazy to think Holmes overdid it a bit to get those important outs, and hurt his shoulder. It happens.

Game 4 was an emergency and pushing Holmes to get eight outs is not something the Yankees would have done at any other point in the season. I also don’t think they would have done it if they had any lingering concern about his shoulder and the capsule, even in a win or go home game. You try to win, but you also can’t put the guy’s career and livelihood at risk, you know?

Shoulder capsules are not to be messed with, but from the looks of things, Holmes and the Yankees avoided a major issue. He came back relatively quickly, threw the ball well in October, and figures to have a normal offseason to prepare for 2023. Still, anytime a pitcher has a capsule issue, it’s scary. Those injuries can ruin guys forever.

“I talked to a few doctors. Nothing to worry about. I should be good to go (for next season),” Holmes told Andy Martino after Game 4.

Effross has Tommy John surgery

As you know, Scott Effross had Tommy John surgery right before the postseason, and wow did the Yankees miss him in October. Would’ve been nice to have him around to lighten the load on Holmes, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Wandy Peralta. Effross had his elbow rebuilt sometime during the ALDS and was wearing the big mechanical brace on his arm during the ALCS baseline introductions.

Here is Boone explaining the timeline of Effross’ injury:

“He felt something after his outing against the Orioles (on Sept. 30th), the day after. And then we pitched him in Texas (on Oct. 3rd) and he felt good, sharp. And then in his live BP on Friday (Oct. 7th), he didn't recover the next day, and this was some concern there. So we had the MRI, and sure enough. Yeah, we found out over the weekend.”

“It was just mild soreness (after the Orioles game), I thought. Just kind of end-of-the-year, normal soreness,” Effross said. “Really since then, it just kind of stayed and lingered. Really no specific event kind of triggered it. We thought we were staying on top of it, and it felt pretty good to keep throwing and go out there. I think what we just kind of came to was it was staying around for a little too long and we decided to get it checked out, not thinking it would be as major as it was. But pictures came back and obviously got the unfortunate news. But you know, really there was no one specific moment or pitch or anything that I would say kind of tipped off to this happening.”

The timing of the surgery means Effross will miss all of 2023 and there won’t be any temptation to push the rehab aggressively and return in September a la Zack Britton this year. The timetable just doesn’t work. Effross ain’t coming back after an 11-month rehab. He’ll miss all 2023 and should be good to go come Spring Training 2024, following a 16-month rehab. Tommy John surgery isn’t foolproof, but most guys come through it a-okay.

The downside here is Effross was an older rookie this season and he’ll be 30 when he reports to Spring Training 2024. There’s a decent chance he’s already had the best season of his career. Also, given his pitching style (relying on angles and movement more than being overpowering) any loss of stuff could cut into Effross’ effectiveness. He doesn’t have a huge margin of error. There’s risk here in ways beyond the usual Tommy John surgery rehab.

Hayden Wesneski was really good for the Cubs in limited September action (2.18 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 25.0% strikeouts, 5.3% walks, 47.1% grounders in 33 innings) and geez, knowing what we know now, what a misfire. Effross threw only 12.2 innings after the trade (he missed a month with a shoulder injury too, remember) and now will be out until 2024. Good to great chance the Yankees would’ve been better off just putting Wesneski in the bullpen in September. Alas.

Pitchers get hurt and oftentimes it’s unavoidable. Lou Trivino did fine work overall and Harrison Bader went on a rampage in October, otherwise the trade deadline was a net negative this year. The Yankees set out to address several weaknesses and it didn’t work out. Acquiring what you thought was 5.5 years of a high leverage reliever, only to lose him to elbow reconstruction almost immediately, is about as bad as an MLB-ready prospect for MLB reliever trade can work out.

4. Mining the news. We’ve been focused on the postseason the last few weeks, and now that the Yankees have been eliminated, I want to catch up on some bits of news I came across while waiting for the Yankees to score a run against the Guardians and Astros. Let's get to ‘em.

Cortes, Rizzo say Judge should be named captain

Assuming he returns to the Yankees, of course. Prior to ALCS Game 3, Nestor Cortes went to bat for Aaron Judge and said he should be named the next captain. MLB teams don’t annually name captains like NHL or NFL teams. They’re pretty rare. Baseball’s last official captain was David Wright, who retired in 2018. Here’s what Cortes said prior to Game 3:

“He's meant everything (to us). I think I'm able to say that if he's back here next year, he's our captain. He's the next captain. We follow everything he does. He leads by example. He's not really a guy that comes out and screams at anybody. But if he has to, that's his job. I think he's earned that right to keep us in check. What allows him to be so great, I feel like, is he's a great baseball player, but he's a better human. He treats everybody the same. He follows up on everybody every day. That's what allows him to be who he is … We just follow his act. We follow everything he does. I think he's a perfect example for the game of baseball, for the kids that are coming up and learning the game.”

Cortes added “most of the guys in (the clubhouse) agree with me,” and I wouldn’t read anything into him saying “most” there. I think he was just speaking off the top of his head and said “most” when he really meant “all.” You never really know (26 guys, 26 personalities, etc.) but I seriously doubt there’s anyone in the clubhouse who has a problem with Judge.

“I hope (Judge is) in a Yankee uniform, for him and for the game, for baseball in general,” Anthony Rizzo told Greg Joyce. “We’re seeing people jump ship so much that especially with this uniform on, just being a fan, I think the fitting thing would be for him to be doing a press conference and receiving not only the money he deserves, but also the captain title that comes with it.”

The Yankees didn’t name Derek Jeter captain until June 2003, when he was in his eighth season and after he’d won four World Series. Winning a championship isn’t a prerequisite to be named captain though. Don Mattingly was named captain in 1991, before he ever played a postseason game. Thurman Munson too. He was named captain in April 1976, before he played in the postseason.

I don’t have a strong opinion about this. The players in the clubhouse don’t need to be told who the leaders are. At the same time, the Yankees all seem to revere Judge, and if they want him to be named captain, then name him captain. I don’t think our opinion matters as outsiders. This is the kinda thing that should be up to the people in the clubhouse. If Judge comes back and the Yankees name him captain, great. If not, well that’s okay too.

Reds wanted Peraza and Volpe for Castillo

According to Jon Heyman, the Reds requested both Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe in Luis Castillo trade talks, and told the Yankees there was nothing more they could do once they turned it down. The Yankees put Jasson Dominguez on the table, but Volpe was off-limits. Given what the Reds received for Castillo, requesting Peraza and Volpe tracks.

Here’s what I listed as the Yankees’ equivalent to the Castillo trade package back in August:

• SS Noelvi Marte: SS Anthony Volpe
• SS Edwin Arroyo: SS Oswald Peraza
• RHP Levi Stoudt: RHP Randy Vasquez
• RHP Andrew Moore: RHP Jack Neely (an interesting enough bullpen prospect)

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranks Volpe No. 10 and Marte No. 32 on their top 100 prospects list, and Arroyo No. 44 and Peraza No. 73. Not a perfect equivalent, but certainly in the ballpark, and seeing how the Mariners put Marte and Arroyo on the table, you can understand why the Reds wanted Peraza and Volpe from the Yankees. They weren’t being unreasonable.

The Yankees weren’t a Castillo away from beating the Astros, and they’ve kinda backed themselves into a corner where they need Volpe (and/or Peraza) to really cash in. Would’ve been nice to sign Carlos Correa and then use Volpe to land Castillo, but too late now. Maybe the Yankees sign Correa or Trea Turner this offseason, then trade Volpe or Peraza for help elsewhere (Bryan Reynolds?), but I think we all know that’s not happening.

Blake wants to return

Pitching coach Matt Blake’s contract is up and he told Dan Martin he would “love to be back, but I have to talk to (the Yankees).” Earlier this year Twins pitching coach Wes Johnson left the team in the middle of the season to take a job at LSU, which came with a significant pay raise ($350,000 a year to $750,000). Blake certainly noticed and hinted at wanting a similar bump.

Blake’s first season with the Yankees was the 60-game pandemic season and I’m fine with forgetting that year entirely. It was a bizarre year for everyone. The last two years though, the Yankees have been among the best pitching teams in the sport. Some 2021-22 numbers:

• ERA: 3.53 (3rd in MLB)
• ERA+: 113 (3rd in MLB)
• FIP: 3.73 (4th)
• FIP+: 110 (4th)
• K%: 25.4% (4th)
• BB%: 7.8% (8th)
• GB%: 43.0% (15th)
• Barrel rate: 7.2% (7th)

Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Average, a catch-all metric that adjusts for opponent, ballpark, weather, quality of contact, and a million other things had the Yankees fifth in baseball and 8% better than average in 2022. Having Gerrit Cole and Luis Severino on the staff helps, but guys like Cortes, Clay Holmes, and Wandy Peralta went from unheralded pickups to core contributors under Blake. 

I think the Yankees will re-sign Blake, but I also don’t think it’s completely impossible they hand the reins over to assistant pitch coach Desi Druschel and/or elevate director of pitching Sam Briend. There are a lot – A LOT – of smart pitching folks out there. Blake asking for a (deserved) raise and the Yankees saying “thanks but no thanks, we have guys with similar skill sets making much less” wouldn’t shock me.

(In other coaching news, the Marlins hired Cardinals bench coach Skip Schumaker to be their new manager earlier this week. Yankees third base coach Luis Rojas interviewed for the job twice according to Craig Mish, so he was among the final candidates. Rojas will remain with the Yankees for the time being. Always a chance he goes elsewhere this winter.)

4.5 Yankees among Gold Glove finalists

I say 4.5 because one is Andrew Benintendi in left field, who of course split the season between the Yankees and Royals. Last season Joey Gallo split his time between two teams and still won a Gold Glove, so it can be done. The other Yankees who are up for Gold Gloves: Jose Trevino, Anthony Rizzo, Jameson Taillon, and DJ LeMahieu. Aaron Judge split his time between right and center fields and fell short of the playing time requirement at both positions (698 innings through 138 team games), so he was ineligible for a Gold Glove.

LeMahieu is up against Whit Merrifield and Luis Rengifo for the new super utility guy Gold Glove. I have no idea what criteria they’re using to determine who is eligible for that award, but here is the breakdown of their games played by position (excluding DH):

• LeMahieu: 47 at 3B, 41 at 2B, 35 at 1B
• Merrifield: 83 at 2B, 40 in RF, 18 in CF, 5 in LF, 2 at 1B
• Rengifo: 99 at 2B, 39 at 3B, 19 at SS, 5 in RF, 1 in LF

LeMahieu has the most even distribution whereas Merrifield and Rengifo played more total positions. Then again, how much do Merrifield’s two games at first base or Rengifo’s five games in right field really factor into the Gold Glove voting? Great, he stood there for a few games. The Yankees stuck Matt Carpenter in left field for three games too. Lots of guys do that.

The only time I’ve ever thought about pitcher Gold Gloves is when I believed Masahiro Tanaka deserved one all those years. He is one of the best fielding pitchers I’ve ever seen. Taillon is a good fielder I guess? The voters (the league’s managers and coaches) apparently think so. I don’t know whether Rizzo and Trevino will win, but I think it’s easy to understand why they’re finalists.

I’m a bit surprised Josh Donaldson isn’t among the finalists at third. It’s between Matt Chapman, Jose Ramirez, and Ramon Urias. Donaldson had a poor year at the plate, but I thought he played great and more often than not spectacular defense at third. The numbers matched the eye test too. Even at age 36, Donaldson can still play the hell out of the hot corner.

Anyway, I’m not going to lose sleep over Donaldson not being a finalist at third base. It’s just a Gold Glove. With 4.5 Yankees among the finalists, I imagine they’ll reel in one or two. Gallo won a Gold Glove last year. The last Yankee to spend the full season with the team and win a Gold Glove was Brett Gardner in 2016.

(In other awards news, Aaron Judge is a finalist for the Hank Aaron Award, which is “awarded annually to the best overall offensive performer in each league.” He’ll win. The Hank Aaron Award has been around since 1999 and Derek Jeter (2006 and 2009) and Alex Rodriguez (2007) are the only Yankees to win it. Judge will join them.)

Yankees have No. 26 pick

Now that they’ve been eliminated, the Yankees are locked into their 2023 draft slot. They hold the No. 26 pick next year, but not because they finished with MLB’s fifth best record this season. MLB and the MLBPA agreed to a new draft order structure as part of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Here’s how the draft order is now determined:

• Picks 1-6: Lottery
• Picks 7-18: Non-postseason, non-lottery teams in reverse order of standings
• Picks 19-22: Wild Card Series losers
• Picks 23-26: LDS losers
• Picks 27-28: LCS losers
• Pick 29: World Series loser
• Pick 30: World Series winner

The Padres, the other LCS loser, had a worse regular season record than the Yankees, so they get the No. 27 pick and the Yankees get No. 28. HOWEVA, the Mets and Dodgers exceeded the third luxury tax threshold and will have their first round picks moved back 10 spots. They lost in the Wild Card Series and NLDS, respectively. The Mets and Dodgers moving back bumps the Yankees up from No. 28 to No. 26. Here are the 2023 draft lottery odds.

It’s way too early to start thinking about 2023 draft prospects (MLB.com’s draft prospects list isn’t even out yet), but we now know when the Yankees will pick, so I figured I’d mention it. Keep in mind all first round picks are protected from free agent compensation. The Yankees won’t give up that No. 29 pick to sign a qualified free agent (Carlos Rodon, Trea Turner, whoever).

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Jerry asks: I have previously been a Cashman fan (overall for his trades and ability to find undervalued players) and agnostic on Boone (a poor in game mgr but better than Girardi).  However this year has been a shambles in terms of roster construction and game management so they both need to go although that could mean Cashman moving to President and a new GM coming in. Which raises questions: who should be the replacements and who is actually available that would be better than Boone/Cashman?

This has already been a busy offseason on the GM front. The Tigers fired GM Al Avila in August, then hired Giants GM Scott Harris as their new president of baseball operations in September (Harris plans to hire a GM to work under him). The Giants then hired Astros assistant GM Pete Putila to replace Harris. Also, the Cardinals signed assistant GM/scouting director Randy Flores (the former lefty reliever) to a contract extension earlier this month. Flores, Harris, and Putila were all considered GM candidates, and now they’re accounted for.

I expect Brian Cashman to return and I’m mostly fine with it, though I do think the Yankees need some fresh eyes in the front office. I don’t think running it back with the same people will lead to different results. I’ve mentioned this countless times before, but elevating Cashman to a big picture team president role, then hiring someone to be the GM and handle the day-to-day duties, would make sense. Cashman’s experience in the game and in the New York market has a ton of value. At some point though, changes must be made.

With that in mind, here are five potential GM candidates, listed alphabetically. I am not saying the Yankees should hire one of these people. I don’t know enough about them to make that call. This is just a list of five names that are frequently mentioned as rising front office stars.

Dana Brown, Braves vice president of scouting: Probably the most qualified GM candidate in baseball. Brown has been in front offices for three decades now and he ran drafts for the Expos/Nationals (2002-09), Blue Jays (2010-18), and now Braves (2019 to present). All those mid-to-late round picks the Braves turned into quality rookies this year (Vaughn Grissom, Michael Harris II, Spencer Strider, etc.)? Brown was the man behind their selections. Also, he has an eye for front office talent too. Many of the people he hired to work under him have since moved onto bigger and better things. Brown has a ton of experience with new and old school approaches, and he has plenty of connections throughout the game. He’d have no trouble filling out a front office. Only a matter of time until a team gives Brown the keys to their baseball operations department.

James Click, Astros general manager: This is a weird one. The Astros are in the World Series, but Click’s contract is up after the season, and he is not a lock to return. Apparently Click doesn’t always see eye to eye with Dusty Baker and owner Jim Crane (word is Crane truly did not know about the sign-stealing scandal and was embarrassed, and is much more hands on now). Click’s been part of successful Rays and Astros front offices in recent years, so he has the resume, though he’s also said to be awkward if not outright bad at managing people. Smart baseball guy, but the people skills are lacking.

James Harris, Guardians assistant general manager: Harris took an atypical path to an MLB front office (he previously worked in the NFL with the 49ers and Eagles, and also for the University of Oregon) and he quickly climbed the ranks with Cleveland. He nearly got the Cubs GM job last year and is exactly the kinda young, forward-thinking executive who eventually finds his way into a GM role under a veteran president of baseball operations. The Guardians are a GM factory. They contend more often than not while on a tight payroll and there’s nothing owners want more than success while spending as little money as possible, so Cleveland’s front office is frequently raided. Harris figures to be next to go.

Billy Owens, Athletics assistant general manager: It would be easier to list the GM openings Owens hasn’t interviewed for over the years. Most recently, the Mets interviewed him last year, and instead went with Billy Eppler. Owens has been with the A’s since 1999 and he’s done everything from coach to scout to run player development to serve as assistant GM. Not many GM candidates check as many boxes as Owens. He’s worn many hats in his career.

Steve Sanders, Pirates assistant general manager: Sanders started his career with the Dodgers and later followed Ben Cherington from the Red Sox to the Blue Jays to the Pirates. His background is mostly running drafts (he was Toronto’s scouting director when they drafted Alek Manoah), but you know, have success with enough franchises and you’ll get a shot eventually.

If the Yankees replace Cashman, my guess is his replacement would look a lot like Aaron Boone, meaning the Yankees would replace the grizzled veteran with the cheap first-timer who follows orders. Not someone unqualified, necessarily, but if you think Hal Steinbrenner is forking over what it would take to hire, say, Theo Epstein, you are likely to be disappointed. Also, how much do you trust Hal and Randy Levine to complete a thorough GM search and land on the right name? Replacing Cashman definitely has “be careful what you wish for” potential.

As for potential managers, Joe Espada stands out as a strong candidate. The former Yankees third base coach (2015-17) is currently Dusty’s bench coach with the Astros and he’s done a little of everything in his career. He coached and managed in the minors, he spent time in a front office as a special assistant, he’s filled a variety of big league coaching roles, etc. Espada is bilingual too, which is a plus. He was said to be a finalist for the Marlins job.

Don Mattingly is out there now, and just strip away the name and his prior history with the Yankees for the second. Is Mattingly a good manager? Hard to tell with some of those Marlins rosters the last few years. He won a lot with the Dodgers in his first managerial stint, though some of those clubs had so much talent they could autopilot to 90+ wins. “Hire the former star player to manage” isn’t really a thing anymore. Remember, Mattingly interviewed for the Yankees managerial job that went to Joe Girardi back in the day.

Other potential managerial candidates include Carlos Beltran (he hasn’t been connected to any of these managerial openings, which might say something about his standing within the game), Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro (he seems to interview for 2-3 jobs every offseason but never gets one), and Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol (player development guy with front office experience). When teams hire a new manager, they tend to get the exact opposite of the guy they just had. Who is the opposite of the inexperienced and laid back Boone? Maybe John Gibbons? I’ve always liked Gibby. Clint Hurdle? I’ll believe the Yankees will move on from Boone when I see it. If they do, Espada looks like the best candidate from where I sit.

Alec asks: Can we get an update on the largest drop off in first half vs. second half winning percentage in MLB history? I know the Yankees were on pace during their August slide to set the record for the largest drop off, but did their September resurgence prevent them from making this dubious history?

Back in August, I answered a mailbag question about the biggest declines in winning percentage from the first to second half of a season. At the time, the Yankees were on pace for the largest decline of the Wild Card Era, going from .696 ball in the first half to .333 ball in the second half.

The Yankees got back on track in September and finished with a .500 winning percentage in the second half. They went 35-35 after the All-Star break. The .196-point decline in winning percentage is the fourth largest of the Wild Card Era. Here’s the updated table:

The good (?) news is the Yankees had the best first half and second half winning percentages, and also went the deepest into the postseason, among those teams. For some reason that does not make me feel better. Anyway, there’s the update. The 2022 Yankees had “only” the fourth largest in-season winning percentage decline of the Wild Card Era.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)