Thoughts after Game 5 of the 2022 ALDS

Three wins down, eight to go. (Getty)

What felt like the longest best-of-five series in baseball history is finally over. The Yankees are going to the ALCS and the Guardians are going home, and truth be told, the Yankees controlled the entire series outside the tenth inning of Game 2 and the ninth inning of Game 3. They scored in the first inning in three of the five games. The Guardians were on their heels all series.

So it is Yankees vs. Astros in the ALCS yet again, and the series starts Wednesday. Not much time to rest and enjoy this win, but that’s baseball. They play every day. Here are the ALCS ZiPS odds with the caveat no one really knows what the Yankees are doing with their rotation yet:

Yeah, I can buy that. I can’t say I’m overly optimistic about the ALCS – the Astros do everything the Guardians do, just way better – though I also think the 2022 Yankees are better than the 2017 and 2019 Yankees, and have a better chance to beat Houston than those teams. Time to slay that dragon. Here are my Game 5 thoughts.

1. Even on short rest, Nestor is nasty. The starting pitcher decisions could not have worked out any more differently. The Guardians went with their No. 4 starter on extra rest rather than their No. 1 starter on short rest. The Yankees went with their No. 2 starter on short rest rather than their No. 4 starter on normal rest, and had their No. 1 starter up in the bullpen in the ninth inning. Very different levels of urgency and guess which team is going to the ALCS?

“A lot of pressure, obviously. Our season was on the line today,” Nestor Cortes said after Game 5. “I was a little nervous because I knew the fans and everybody was waiting for our victory. But definitely, incredible atmosphere. Incredible feelings.”

I’m not sure what more anyone could’ve wanted from Cortes. He wobbled in the third inning but escaped a bases loaded, one out jam with just one run allowed on a Jose Ramirez sacrifice fly, then he sat down the last eight batters he faced. One run in five innings on only 61 pitches. 19 batters faced, 15 retired. An 81.5 mph average exit velocity allowed. On short rest. Nestor is a legend.

“What an effort,” Aaron Boone said about Cortes after Game 5. “Honestly, going in, I would have been really excited about 10 batters, getting through (Steven) Kwan that second time. Best case was getting through (Josh) Naylor in the middle of the order the second time through. For him to get through two times and then get Kwan out the third time and give us five innings on three days just set us up so well.”

Maybe Cortes could have gone out for the sixth inning, but you know what? I was totally cool with pulling him after five. He was starting to miss up and he ran a few three-ball counts in the fifth inning, and Cleveland had the 2-3-4 hitters coming up. The middle of the lineup against a tiring pitcher would have been inviting the Guardians to get back into the game. I was fine with the hook.

And like Game 4, the Yankees couldn’t have scripted the pitcher usage any better. Cortes gave them five innings, Jonathan Loaisiga dropped the hammer in the sixth and seventh innings …

… Clay Holmes mowed through the 2-3-4 hitters in the eighth, and Wandy Peralta got his usual Naylor-righty-Andres Gimenez lane in the ninth. Nice clean lanes in each inning. Wandy is the first pitcher ever to appear in all five games of a Division Series, and he faced Naylor and Gimenez in all five games. He held them to 0-for-10 with four strikeouts and a double play. My man is on a 2009 Damaso Marte run right now.

As for Gerrit Cole, he did indeed warm up in the ninth inning, and it wasn’t just for show. Cole told Bryan Hoch he was told he was coming in to face Kwan, who was on deck when the final out was made. Kwan would have represented the tying run! Fortunately Cole didn’t have to pitch. He’s been an animal this postseason, but I’d rather not use him in relief if at all possible.

The Yankees held the contact happy Guardians to a .247/.289/.337 batting line in the ALDS. Once they took the 4-0 lead in Game 5, it was going to take a big swing to get back in the game, and Cleveland really only has one guy who can provide it. The Yankees smothered the Guardians all series outside two innings. Aaron Judge has been the No. 1 story this season. The pitching has been No. 2, and the strong mound work continued into the ALDS.

“It feels incredible to be able to do what I did today,” Nestor said. “Like I said, I didn't know how long I was going to go out there. I was just trying to give my team team innings, whether it was two innings, three, four, five innings. And it feels great to come on top and lead the team to the CS.”

2. Stanton, Judge, and dingers. I don’t know much about his medicals, but man, I can’t believe the Guardians didn’t start Shane Bieber in Game 5. He’s your ace, he’s your best pitcher, and your season is on the line. That shoulder injury last year must’ve messed him up pretty good to not start him in Game 5. I hope Bieber’s healthy, but I’m also glad he didn’t get the ball.

"We just feel like it's the right thing to do for him and us,” Terry Francona said about not starting Bieber on short rest in Game 5.

Aaron Civale has had issues giving up home runs in bunches the last two years, and he lasted one out in Game 5. Gleyber Torres took a four-pitch leadoff walk, Anthony Rizzo wore a two-strike pitch in the thigh, and Giancarlo Stanton parked a cement mixer cutter in the right-center field seats for a three-run homer. Four batters, three runs. Civale faced more batter and that was that.

"We definitely had to throw the first punch in a game like this,” Stanton said (video).

Stanton now has 11 home runs in 23 career postseason games, tied with Carlos Beltran for the most ever through that many games, and he’s gone deep 10 times (!) in his last 15 postseason games. Giancarlo is exactly who the anti-homers crowd has in mind when they say you can’t hit homers against good pitching in October, and yet. And yet and yet and yet.

“He cares. He cares a lot,” Nestor Cortes said when asked about Stanton’s postseason heroics. “... He's been an MVP. He's done it all. I think he's missing a World Series ring, so when it comes down to these moments, he's hands on with everybody and giving us everything he has and we appreciate everything he does.”

Aaron Judge, meanwhile, had close to an all-or-nothing ALDS. He went 4-for-20 (.200) with 11 strikeouts in the five games, but also hit two really important home runs. Game-tying two-run shot in Game 3 and then an insurance solo homer in Game 5. He now has four homers in winner-take-all postseason games (also 2017 and 2018 Wild Card Games, and 2020 ALDS Game 5), the most in history. Five players are tied for second with three each: Stanton, Yogi Berra, Didi Gregorius, Troy O'Leary, and Moose Skowron. What a collection of names.

I was a bit worried Cleveland’s very good bullpen would hold the Yankees down after Civale exited. Judge’s homer put me at ease. The Yankees then added another insurance run in the fifth inning when Torres walked, stole second, and scored on a Rizzo single. They did almost the same thing in the first inning of Game 4 (Torres singled in that game, not walk). Those two insurance runs were much appreciated.

Small ball may win over announcers but home runs win series. The Guardians had to scratch and claw for runs with bloops and ground ball singles. That can work and it’s fun when it does work, but it is hard to do consistently, hence only 17 runs in seven games this postseason for the Guardians. The Yankees outhomered them 9-3 in the five games*, and they scored as many runs on Stanton’s first swing of Game 5 as Cleveland scored in the final 18 innings of the series.

* The Yankees also stole more bases than the Guardians in the series (5-3). They beat them in the power department and also at their own game on the bases.

The Yankees hit .182 in the ALDS, the lowest average ever for a team that won an ALDS, and they’ll have to do better than that to beat the Astros. The Astros are the rich man’s Guardians. They had the second lowest strikeout rate in baseball (behind only Cleveland) and also ranked fourth in homers, not 29th. Good win in Game 5. Now Judge and the rest of the offense will have to pick it up in the ALCS.

3. Hicks injured. Aaron Hicks is done for the postseason. He suffered a left knee injury in that collision with Oswaldo Cabrera (video) on yet another bloop hit to shallow left – they both called for the ball and the infielder going back has to let the outfielder coming in take it – and the injury comes with a six-week recovery. Hicks is done and will be replaced on the roster.

“MRI, CT scan, everything. And pretty much I’m going to be out for six weeks,” Hicks said after Game 5 (video). “Extremely disappointing. (This season) is something special and I wanna be a part of it. Now I’m no longer going to be on the field to do my best to help this team win the World Series. Now I just gotta watch on the sidelines.”

I figured the Yankees would find a way to get Oswald Peraza on the ALCS roster and now he can be a straight substitution for Hicks. Cabrera in left and Peraza at short? That leaves Marwin Gonzalez on the bench as the fourth outfielder, and you can always put Tim Locastro in left in an emergency. There’s a chance Isiah Kiner-Falefa plays short and Cabrera goes to left. I dunno.

The Yankees really should put Giancarlo Stanton or Matt Carpenter in left field now. At least in Games 1 and 2 of the ALCS. Left field in Houston is so small with the Crawford Boxes. There’s not much ground to cover at all. Put Stanton or Carpenter in left field (even if only for a few innings), put the other at DH, profit. That would be the best case scenario. Getting Carpenter in the lineup.

“We'll see. We'll have that conversation. Possibly,” Aaron Boone said about Stanton playing the outfield in the ALCS.

There’s at least one roster move coming to replace Hicks. Andrew Benintendi had to get an injection in his wrist recently because he has lingering discomfort, so he’s a non-option for the ALCS. Frankie Montas and Ron Marinaccio are traveling with the Yankees to Houston and could be added to the roster. I don’t think DJ LeMahieu will be activated, but I wouldn’t rule it out completely. We’ll see what the Yankees do. Hicks had a terrible year. I still didn’t want him to get hurt though. Bummer.

4. ALCS rotation. The rainout screwed up my planned ALCS preview but I’ll have a quick look ahead to the series with the Astros sometime Wednesday. Probably in the afternoon (I have to get some CBS stuff done first). I just want to quickly touch on the rotation now. The Yankees announced Jameson Taillon as their Game 1 starter and nothing more. This is my guess at the ALCS rotation:

• Weds., Oct. 19th: Game 1: Jameson Taillon
• Thurs., Oct. 20th: Game 2: Luis Severino (normal rest)
• Fri., Oct. 21st: off-day
• Sat., Oct. 22nd: Game 3: Gerrit Cole (one extra day of rest)
• Sun., Oct. 23rd: Game 4: Nestor Cortes (normal rest)
• Mon., Oct. 24th: Game 5: Taillon (normal rest)
• Tues., Oct. 25th: Game 6: Severino (normal rest)
• Weds., Oct. 26th: Game 7: Cole (short rest)

There’s just the one off-day during the ALCS. Games 3-7 will be played on five consecutive days, so you’re gonna have to use a No. 4 starter at some point. It’s unavoidable. If the Yankees are facing elimination in Game 5, then yeah, Severino on short rest is the way to go. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that. I think that’s a reasonable ALCS rotation though.

I’m not sure what kinda shape Frankie Montas is in right now, but if he’s available as a 2-3(-4?) inning guy, man that would be a huge help. If not, then Domingo German is the only true long man type in the bullpen. The Yankees got through the ALDS without using German, Miguel Castro, or Lucas Luetge. I don’t think that’ll happen again in the ALCS. They’re gonna need their entire staff to beat Houston.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Shoutout to Matt Barnett, Cleveland’s video replay coordinator. He had an awful ALDS. He had Terry Francona & Co. challenge two obviously correct calls in Game 4 (video), then he apparently didn’t tell them to challenge Andres Gimenez’s grounder to first base in the fourth inning of Game 5. Gimenez clearly beat Anthony Rizzo to the bag (video):

You’re down 4-1 in a win or go home game! You need all the baserunners you can get! You get two challenges in the postseason! What are you waiting for? I feel like that series was a fireable offense. Don’t you have to find a new video guy after that? Whatever. Not my problem. Thanks for the bad challenges in Game 4 and the non-challenge in Game 5 … Did you know Cleveland has the longest elimination game losing streak in baseball history? They’ve now lost their last 11 (!) postseason elimination games, including their last eight winner-take-all games. The list:

• 2022 ALDS Game 5: 5-1 loss to Yankees (winner-take-all)
• 2020 AL Wild Card Series Game 2: 10-9 loss to Yankees
• 2018 ALDS Game 3: 11-3 loss to Astros
• 2017 ALDS Game 5: 5-2 loss to Yankees (winner-take-all)
• 2016 World Series Game 7: 8-7 loss to Cubs (winner-take-all)
• 2013 AL Wild Card Game: 4-0 loss to Rays (winner-take-all)
• 2007 ALCS Game 7: 11-2 loss to Red Sox (winner-take-all)
• 2001 ALDS Game 5: 3-1 loss to Mariners (winner-take-all)
• 1999 ALDS Game 5: 12-8 loss to Red Sox (winner-take-all)
• 1998 ALCS Game 6: 9-5 loss to Yankees
• 1997 World Series Game 7: 3-2 loss to Marlins (winner-take-all)

A cursed franchise … Rizzo reached base eight times in the five ALDS games and drove in four runs. He’s so important as the middle of the lineup lefty bat and he had a very good series. Harrison Bader was the star of the show offensively with his three homers, but Rizzo contributed a lot as well … And finally, shoutout to Oswaldo Cabrera for calling Josh Naylor his son (“Tu eres mi hijo”) after catching his line drive in the sixth, and Gleyber Torres for rocking the baby after the final out:

“It was disrespectful. Not only to (Gerrit) Cole but the whole team. We won tonight and that’s revenge. Now they can watch the game on TV tomorrow,” Gleyber said about the rock the baby gesture after Game 5. Naylor had a good attitude about it and the “who’s your daddy?” chants – “That was honestly like a dream come true as a kid, playing in an environment like this,” he told Coley Harvey after the game – but yeah, if you’re gonna dish it, it’s gonna get thrown back in your face when you lose. I enjoy watching this stuff as a fan, but if the Yankees are pissed and felt disrespected by it, good! Use it as motivation. Maybe this becomes the postseason thumbs down? Slap a single, rock the baby toward the dugout, that kinda thing. Would be neat. Enjoy your winter vacation, Josh.

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