Thoughts following the 2022 Draft

Thumbs up for this year’s first round pick. (Vanderbilt)

The three-day 2022 MLB draft is complete and 616 picks were made across 20 rounds. The Yankees made 20 picks and every single one was a college kid: 18 from four-year schools and two from junior colleges. That’s a first. Ignoring the five-round 2020 draft, the Yankees had taken at least one high school kid in every draft since the first ever draft in 1965.

I don’t think all college kids will be the new normal but baseball is trending away from high school kids. It’s not just the Yankees. High schoolers are risky and MLB keeps shortening the draft and eliminating minor league teams, essentially outsourcing player development to colleges. The top high school kids will still get drafted and paid. Everyone else will have to go the college route soon.

The nice thing about the 20-round draft is I can touch on each player a little bit. The old 40 and 50-round classes were burdensome. Let’s break down what we know about the Yankees’ 2020 draft class, shall we? Then we can come back in a few years and laugh at how wrong it all is.

1. 1st round: Vanderbilt OF Spencer Jones. Three and a half years ago I said Jones had “future Yankees prospect” written all over him, and now here we are. Keeping with their recent trend of drafting college bats with premium exit velocity, the Yankees took Jones with the No. 25 pick. Vandy even put together a photoshop. This is what $58,000 a year in tuition gets you:

“We were very happy to have been able to select Spencer,” scouting director Damon Oppenheimer said in a statement. “We love how athletic he is and that he can play center field. He is a legitimate five-tool type guy with big power and plus speed. He has some of the best exit velocity in this year’s draft. We are really excited about his ceiling.”

Unlike recent first rounders Austin Wells and Trey Sweeney, Jones lacks refinement at the plate, and he has a good deal of development ahead of him. Jones is already being compared to Aaron Judge because of his size (6-foot-7), his great athleticism at that size, his raw power, and also their eerily similar draft year numbers:

Jones faced way better competition in the SEC than Judge did in the Mountain West Conference with Fresno State, but still, freaky. Either way, the Judge comparison is unfair and you’re setting yourself up for disappointment if that’s the outcome you’re expecting. Just let Jones be Jones. There’s a wide range of very good outcomes between here and Aaron Judge 2.0.

Do you think the Yankees ran the Jones pick by the Nationals first, and checked to make sure he’s the guy they want in a Juan Soto trade? I’m only half-joking. Anyway, here is my pre-draft profile on Jones and here is the free FanGraphs scouting report (here’s video):

A fantastic two-way prospect in high school, Jones had surgery to repair a fracture in his elbow as a senior and matriculated to Vanderbilt, where he then had Tommy John; he's never toed the rubber for the Commodores. When he first began to play some first base and hit, he looked overmatched in every way and was limited to part-time duty. As a full-time starter during his junior year, Jones tweaked his swing throughout the spring and began to look more comfortable, both with his own huge body and swing, as well as against high-level opposing pitchers. He started hitting for huge power while using a low-effort swing, as if he was starting to understand how big and strong he was, and how simple he could keep things at the plate while still doing damage. While he has had strikeout issues, Jones has missed huge chunks of time, he's barely focused on hitting, and it's taken him a bit to dial in a swing he's comfortable with. He'll likely have to make constant adjustments because of his size, but as the draft approached, it seemed like things were rounding into form. Jones has freaky size and power, and of all the prospects in this draft, he's arguably the one with the best shot to eventually have 80-grade raw power. If he develops even a 40-grade hit tool, he'll be a star-level player. His ceiling is worth taking a shot on once the surer-thing prospects come off the board in the middle of the first round.

Jones had the hardest hit ball at the draft combine last month (112 mph) and the hardest hit ball ever recorded in college baseball this spring (119 mph). I’ve heard the other numbers on his bat are impressive too. Jones has a flat attack angle (i.e. a level swing through the zone) and he is able to generate a ton of backspin, and get a lot of carry when he hits the ball in the air.

More than an analytics darling, Jones is also a scouts’ favorite because he’s so athletic and he gets to his power so easily. There is an effortlessness to his swing. It’s a sweet swing too. This is aesthetically pleasing (GIF via Stephen Schoch):

Am I crazy or is there some Matt Carpenter in that swing? Is it crazy I’m comparing a first round pick’s swing to Matt Carpenter in the year 2022 and our first thought wasn’t “ewww?” What a crazy year, man. So yeah, Jones has a sweet swing and huge power according to both the eye test and the nerds. The kid certainly looks the part in a uniform.

There are secondary skills here beyond the bat too. Jones is a good runner and a good outfield defender – Oppenheimer said “he can play center field,” though the consensus is Jones is a right fielder long-term – so he’s not a one-dimensional slugger. Squint your eyes and yes, you can see the Aaron Judge But A Lefty starter kit. That’s the best case scenario upside.

The downside is Jones has swing and miss issues, and even when he’s going well, he uses the opposite field more than he should. Using the entire field is great, but it’s okay to turn on a pitch when you get something inside. Hopefully that overly opposite field approach can be coached out of him. Contact ability is more innate and not as easy to improve. That’s the top developmental goal.

The Yankees haven’t taken many big swings in recent drafts. I’m not sure conservative is the right word to describe their draft strategy but they haven’t gone boom or bust in a while. Wells and Sweeney project to be above-average regulars more than stars, and even Anthony Volpe fit that profile before breaking out and proving to be way better than expected.

The last high risk, high upside player the Yankees took in the first round was … Judge? Yeah, it was Judge, and he was one of three first round picks in 2013 (they had extra picks after losing Nick Swisher and Rafael Soriano to free agency). Jones is a break from their usual draft strategy and I find it refreshing. You win with stars, and if you’re going to steer clear of stars in free agency, then you better grow your own. Jones has the tools to be an impact player.

That said, Jones will be a project for the player development folks and his climb up the ladder figures to be slower than the typical first round college hitter. Judge spent half a year in Low-A, half a year in High-A, half a year in Double-A, and a full year in Triple-A before getting called up. And he’s elite at making adjustments. Jones might have an even more deliberate climb.

Judge 2.0 is the dream scenario and the more likely scenario is closer to Joey Gallo 2.0, a big donkey with mammoth power and good defense who can’t get the bat on the ball consistently. And the most likely scenario is Jones never works out or gets traded, because that’s how it goes with prospects. But at least there’s a chance at greatness here. There’s a lot of work to be done to get there, for sure, but I like the roll of the dice. Shoot for the moon, baby.

2. 2nd round: Cal Poly RHP Drew Thorpe. Thorpe, the No. 61 selection, apparently piqued my interest at some point because when I went to look into him after the pick was made, I had a half-watched video on YouTube. Huh. Thorpe benefited from extra scouting exposure this spring because his teammate, SS Brooks Lee, was a top draft prospect (Lee went No. 8 to the Twins).

“We love Drew’s size and the Major League stuff and command he possesses,” Oppenheimer said in a statement. “We have seen him up to 96 and he has arguably the best changeup in the draft. He is still projectable to add velocity and his overall ability to create swing-and-miss is elite. He has the ability to move quickly through the minor leagues with a good Major League starter ceiling.”

This spring Thorpe ranked second in the country with 149 strikeouts (No. 22 pick Cooper Hjerpe had 161 strikeouts) and he finished with a 2.32 ERA (2.56 FIP) with 37.3% strikeouts and 6.3% walks in 104.2 innings. He was excellent throughout his college career, in summer ball, with Team USA, you name it. Everywhere Thorpe goes, he pitches well.

FanGraphs had Thorpe as the No. 22 prospect in the draft (other scouting publications had him in the 60-70 range) and they all agree he has a knockout changeup. By all accounts, it was one of the best individual pitches in the 2022 draft. Here’s video and here’s a snippet of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d):

Thorpe is one of the most accomplished and polished pitchers in the draft class. He has a strong, durable 6-foot-4 frame and throws three pitches for strikes with plus control. His fastball sits 89-93 mph and maintains its velocity deep into starts. His 82-83 mph slider improved this spring to become an above-average pitch that gets swings and misses both in and out of the strike zone and his 81-84 mph changeup is a devastating, borderline plus-plus offering batters can’t touch even when they know it is coming. Thorpe’s fastball is straight and hittable, so he pitches off his secondaries and will sometimes go entire innings without throwing a single fastball. His arm speed has slowed because he’s so secondary-heavy, costing him velocity at times.

The Yankees have a thing for helping pitchers add velocity and you can see why that led them to Thorpe. The kid has the great secondary pitch (changeup), the good third pitch (slider), and good control. He’s a little short with the fastball and that’s something the Yankees can help with. They’ll have him on a weighted ball program in no time.

(I should note the Yankees don’t simply draft pitchers and wave the pinstriped wand to get them to add velocity. They scout arm actions, they scout athleticism, they scout pitch shapes, etc. The Yankees identify pitchers they believe they can help add velocity. They don’t take them on a whim. Thorpe was a draft target for that specific reason.)

A pitcher like Thorpe doesn’t need to throw 96-98 mph to be effective. Get him into the 93-95 mph range consistently and it’ll be plenty good enough to carve hitters up given the rest of the arsenal. Now, it’s not as simple as “make him throw harder and everything else stays the same.” Added arm strength could impact his changeup, his command, etc. That’s for the Yankees to figure out.

There’s not much more to say about Thorpe. This is pretty clearly a “we love the changeup and command (and slider) and think we can get more out of his fastball” pick, and hey, given how well the Yankees develop pitchers these days, it’ll probably work. Thorpe’s a good pick and a solid bet to be a much better pitcher one year from now than he is today.

3. 3rd round: Gonzaga RHP Trystan Vrieling. Gonzaga’s entire rotation was drafted in the top three rounds this year. The Yankees took Vrieling, Gonzaga’s No. 2 starter behind No. 10 overall pick RHP Gabriel Hughes, with the No. 100 selection. He threw 80.2 innings with a 4.91 ERA (4.15 FIP) and 19.6% strikeouts and 12.2% walks this spring.

The numbers aren’t great but the Yankees didn’t draft college numbers. They drafted a four-pitch guy with size (6-foot-4 and 200 lbs.) and physicality, and plan to coach him up. Here’s video and here’s the free FanGraphs scouting report:

Vrieling has one of the deeper repertoires in the draft, with four distinct pitches headlined by his cutter/slider and curveball, which have distinct shape, and which Vrieling commands to his glove side. He doesn't throw all that hard, only sitting 90-92 mph most of the time, but he'll reach back for the occasional 95 and his heater has carry that plays at the letters. His fastball command is notably worse than his feel for locating his breaking stuff, even though his arm action is quite short. Vrieling also has a frame built for the rigors of pro ball and might yet throw harder, though he already has back-of-the-rotation stuff, at least.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) notes Vrieling has “big spin rates in the 2,500-2,800 rpm range” on his slider, and these days that’s pretty much a prerequisite for being a high draft pick. If you want to go in the top three rounds somewhere, you better be able to spin the ball, and it sounds like Vrieling can. The scouting publications ranked him in the 70-105 range, for what it’s worth.

Thorpe is a “we like everything but the fastball velocity and we can fix that” selection. It seems Vrieling already has the stuff – I’m sure the Yankees believe they can get more out of his fastball and better use that slider spin – but needs to firm up his control. He had high walk rates in school and the scouting reports say his fastball command needs work.

Fixing command is not as easy as fixing stuff, but you can get by with poor command if you have good enough stuff. In the third round, a college kid who “already has back-of-the-rotation stuff, at least” is a pretty good flier. And with the Yankees, there’s always a chance Vrieling levels up and becomes something more than a back-end starter.

4. 4th round: Oregon OF Anthony Hall. The Yankees have a thing for solid but unspectacular college bats in the middle rounds. Two years ago it was Trevor Hauver, last year it was Cooper Bowman, and this year it’s Hall. He hit .333/.402/.640 (147 wRC+) with 14 homers, a 16.6% strikeout rate, and a 9.3% walk rate in 60 games this spring.

Like most college hitters coming off the board in the fourth round, Hall has platoon concerns and he’s a bit of a ‘tweener who might not have the bat for a corner or the defense for center. Here’s video and here’s a piece of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d):

Hall has plenty of strength and above-average raw power to the pull side, but he is still learning to tap into the power with more consistency. He hits the ball on the ground frequently, but when he does catch a pitch on the middle of the plate and elevates he can do plenty of damage with strength and bat speed. It’s a relatively simple swing with a slight leg kick and some pre-pitch hand movement. Hall hammers fastballs and has performed well against 93-plus mph velocity, though he needs to continue cutting down on his whiffs against secondary offerings. A center fielder with Oregon, Hall is an average runner and projects as a corner outfielder at the next level.

A lefty hitter who can hammer fastballs and hold his own in all three outfield spots has a chance to carve out a career as at least a starter on a bad team/platoon guy on a good team. Guys like Hall tend to put up good numbers in the lower minors and get overrated as a prospect. Elijah Dunham is kinda that guy right now, if you need a reference point in the current farm system.

That isn’t to say Hall (or Dunham) can’t be a good big leaguer. Just that he’ll need to tap into that power more consistently to have real staying power. The Yankees have done good work getting players to unlock power (Volpe, Everson Pereira, etc.) and perhaps Hall can be next. Typically though, these mid-round college hitters kinda are what they are, and that’s a player with a solid skill set and a chance to play in the big leagues, but not make an impact.

5. The next Waldichuk, Warren, Wesneski, etc. Okay college starters whose last name starts with a W are the new market inefficiency. The Yankees drafted Ken Waldichuk (5th round in 2019), Hayden Wesneski (6th round in 2019), and Will Warren (8th round in 2021) in recent years and developed them into the three best pitching prospects in the system.

The Yankees did not draft any W-named college pitchers this year, so I guess we can just ignore the guys they took in the middle rounds.

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Okay fine. The Yankees drafted two potential Waldichuk, Warren, Wesneski types in the middle rounds and I say that because they only took two college starters in the middle rounds (other than Thorpe and Vrieling, who were drafted a bit higher). They selected Texas Tech RHP Chase Hampton in the 6th round and Northeastern RHP Cam Schlittler in the 7th round.

Hampton wasn’t great this spring (4.25 ERA and 5.16 FIP in 56.2 innings) but he finished very well, allowing three earned runs and striking out 30 in his final three starts and 17 innings. That includes a 12-strikeout performance against a Notre Dame team that advanced to the College World Series. There’s not much video out there, unfortunately.

A draft-eligible sophomore, Hampton is still only 20, and his fastball generally sits in the 92-95 mph range. Here’s part of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d):

Hampton’s long, loose arm action is delivered from a lower three-quarter slot, causing uncomfortable at-bats for opponents. He throws both a curveball and a slider, each with a distinct shape. The 84-87 mph slider serves as his putaway pitch. If the bender is working in that particular game, Hampton will get hitters to chase it out of the zone as well. He does have a changeup, and when timed up, the downward-fading action presents a serious problem for lefthanded bats. Scouts feel Hampton is just now coming into his own.

Hampton is an arrow up player and there’s a lot to work with. The velocity is good, he can spin a breaking ball (two, apparently), and there’s also the makings of a changeup in there. Plus he’s a big dude (6-foot-2 and 225 lbs.). Wesneski had a similar build when he was drafted. He trimmed down and his fastball livened up.

Schlittler is tall and lanky (6-foot-6 and 210 lbs.) and he threw 91.2 innings with a 3.44 ERA (4.24 FIP) and blah strikeout (22.2%) and walk (8.4%) rates this spring. Supposedly the Red Sox were on him heavy before the draft, which I guess makes sense since he’s in their backyard. Here’s old video and a snippet of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d):

With long arm action leading into a high three-quarters slot, Schlittler is a solid strike-thrower who pitches off a fastball that sits at 89-93 mph and touches 95. There's enough physical projection left in his 6-foot-6 frame that there could be more velocity in the tank as he gets stronger. There's nothing plus in the four-pitch mix from Schlittler, whose go-to secondary pitch is his slider. He throws it in the low-to-mid-80s with short break, a fringe-average pitch that helps him get swing-and-miss in the college level. He also throws a below-average changeup that comes in firm off his fastball, along with a fringe-average curveball in the upper-70s.

Well, if Schlittler really has “more velocity in the tank,” then I would bet on the Yankees unlocking it. Also, no plus secondary pitch just means the Yankees are going to teach him that big sweepy slider soon. Schlittler looks to have several clear paths to improve and those paths happen to align perfectly with the Yankees’ developmental strengths. Funny how that works.

The Yankees won’t unlock a Waldichuk or a Wesneski or a Warren every year (right?), but if they do it this year, Hampton and Schlittler are the best candidates to be that breakout player. My money’s on Hampton because he’s younger and seems to have a better arsenal, but who knows? Point is, the Yankees have killed it with these mid-round college starters. Hampton and Schlittler are next in line.

6. The one-pitch wonders. On the pitcher development side, the Yankees do two things well: add velocity and improve sliders (i.e. teach the whirly). Monday they took a pair of college kids who fit those development strengths well in LSU RHP Eric Reyzelman (5th round) and USC RHP Matt Keating (9th round). They are both full-time relievers.

Reyzelman struck out 35.5% of the batters he faced this spring, and to quote John Flaherty, he is proud of his fastball. Here’s video from February. He throws a fastball, then looks back to check the velocity on the scoreboard after every pitch. Here’s part of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d):

He’s a one-pitch pitcher who challenges hitters to hit his mid-90s plus-plus fastball that touches 99. He threw it 94% of the time this year. Even though hitters knew it was coming, they had a 39% swing-and-miss rate. Reyzelman has a three-quarters release point that gives him the analytically friendly combination of high velocity, a flat approach angle and vertical movement that consistently gets above hitters’ bats.

Keating had a 32.8% strikeout rate this spring (he also went 0-for-11 with eight strikeouts at the plate) and he’s a slider guy. It’s a power downer with spin in the 2,600 rpm range. Here’s video and here’s a piece of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d):

Keating has a power low-80s breaking ball that flashes plus. It has the 12-to-6 trajectory of a curveball, but its power and depth are more like a slider. Hitters missed 41% of the time when they swung at it in 2022 and he threw it for strikes 65% of the time. Keating also has an average fastball that has modest velocity (91-93 mph in short outings), but above-average life.

I should include Eastern Kentucky LHP Will Brian (10th round) in this group as well. He had a 34.0% strikeout rate this spring and Baseball America (subs. req’d) says his “high-70s curveball (had) a 60% whiff rate.” That’ll play. Brian is a low-90s fastball guy who also has a slider, but the curveball is the moneymaker. The Yankees will go to work on that fastball.

These picks boil down to “Reyzelman, you have a great fastball and we’ll teach you a slider, and Keating, you have a great slider and we’ll fix your fastball.” That’s really all there is to it. It’s sort of amazing a kid with Reyzelman’s fastball or Keating’s slider lasted so long in the draft. In the past, arms like this would have been scooped earlier. Pitching is just so good now.

7. Late round notables. Every so often the Yankees stumble upon a late round pitcher like Ron Marinaccio (or Nestor Cortes!) who grinds it out in the minors and gets better through hard work, and puts himself on the big league map years after he’s been written off as a prospect. We all love top prospects, but those late round success stories are a blast too.

Mississippi State RHP Jackson Fristoe (12th round) allowed 33 runs in 37.1 innings this spring and has walked nearly two batters every three innings, but his fastball has an elite combination of velocity, spin, and angle through the zone. Fristoe just has no command of it whatsoever, and his slider isn’t reliable either. The fastball makes the computer go brrr through. Here’s video

Clemson LHP Geoffrey Gilbert (13th round) sits in the upper-80s and gets good ride on his heater, and he has feel for a slider and a changeup. Here’s video. Gilbert was homer prone in college and he relies more on fooling hitters and getting called strikes than missing bats. He needs to add velocity to have a real chance and *checks notes* yeah the Yankees can help with that.

Southern Nevada RHP Kris Bow (14th round) is a junior college reliever with mid-90s gas and a hard mid-80s slider that bumped close to 3,000 rpm this spring. He helped himself by striking out 19 in 17 innings against elite competition in the wood bat Cape Cod League the last few weeks. Walks are an issue (close to 5 BB/9 in school) but Bow has pro stuff.

Azusa Pacific RHP Hayden Merda (17th round) struck out 37.2% of the batters he faced as a most of the time reliever this spring. I was told he lit up Trackman during a scout day where he trains two weeks ago and had pitch data on par with Shane McClanahan's (?!?). Either the Yankees got the steal of the draft, or you should never draft a kid based on what was literally a 25-pitch bullpen session. Probably the latter, but in the 17th round, why not see if it’s the former?

8. The best of the rest. Stanford SS Brett Barrera (9th round) was a utility infielder his first two years in school, then he broke out with a .351/.394/.575 (132 wRC+) line and 11 homers in 2022. He has some pop but is a poor defender and isn’t long for shortstop. Seems like a bonus pool saving pick … UC Santa Barbara RHP Ryan Harvey (11th round) is a mid-90s fastball reliever with spin and an iffy slider. That is really all there is to say about him … Grand Canyon OF Tayler Aguilar (15th round) is a performance guy. He hit .326/.397/.719 (155 wRC+) this spring and his 23 home runs were tied for 16th in the nation. Aguilar should have some fun beating up low minors pitching … Evansville RHP Shane Gray (16th round) is a senior with good command of a low-90s fastball and three secondary pitches (slider, curveball, changeup), and he pitches with guts. Maybe the Yankees can coach him up, but Gray seems like the type who will spend seven years in the farm system and get a random call up down the line a la random Yankee Brody Koerner … Northeastern RHP Sebastian Keane (18th round) opened some eyes in the Cape Cod League last summer but had a brutal spring this year (62 runs in 70.2 innings). He’s got a low-90s fastball and a decent slider. If 2021 Keane comes back, he’s an okay prospect. If 2022 Keane is the new normal, he’ll probably be out of pro ball in a year or two … Texas JuCo 3B Beau Brewer (19th round) is playing this summer for the Savannah Bananas, the Harlem Globetrotters of collegiate summer ball. That’s fun. He hit .411/.496/.660 with 36 walks and eight strikeouts in 56 games this spring. Brewer’s gonna wind up a farm system cult hero, I can already tell … Elon RHP Trevor Kirk (20th round) is a big dude (6-foot-5 and 210 lbs.) with a rainbow curveball that misses bats. He also allowed 30 runs in 34.1 innings this spring, so there’s other stuff to work on.

9. About the money. The draft signing deadline is Monday, Aug. 1st, which also happens to be the day before the trade deadline. I’m sure front offices are happy about that. The Yankees have a $6,428,600 bonus pool this year. Add in the 5% overage before forfeiting next year’s first round pick, and it’s $6,750,030. Here are the slot values:

1st round: Vanderbilt OF Spencer Jones ($2,880,800)
2nd round: Cal Poly RHP Drew Thorpe ($1,187,600)
3rd round: Gonzaga RHP Trystan Vrieling ($611,400)
4th round: Oregon OF Andrew Hall ($456,500)
5th round: LSU RHP Eric Reyzelman ($340,700)
6th round: Texas Tech RHP Chase Hampton ($264,000)
7th round: Northeastern RHP Cam Schlittler ($207,500)
8th round: Stanford SS Brett Barrera ($172,300)
9th round: USC RHP Matt Keating ($158,000)
10th overall: Eastern Kentucky LHP Will Brian ($149,800)

Slot value for every pick after the 10th round is $125,000, and every dollar over that counts against the bonus pool. I’m not sure the Yankees have anyone worth a significant overslot bonus in rounds 11-20 this year (unless Merda really is a righty McClanahan). Also, the $125,000 slot applies to undrafted free agents too. They’re no longer capped at $20,000. Good for them.

The Yankees have signed every single player taken in the top 10 rounds since the bonus pools became a thing in 2012. There is no reason to think that will change. Maybe there’s a Kumar Rocker situation and the Yankees walk away from someone because the medicals are a mess, but that rarely happens. And even then the Yankees might sign the player anyway, just at a reduced bonus (like Ty Hensley, their first ever pick in the bonus pool era).

I say this every year and I’m saying it again: I expect the Yankees to sign all their picks in the top 10 rounds and something like 18-19 of their 20 total picks. The Yankees made their selections knowing exactly what it will take to sign each player. How they will distribute the $6,750,030 in bonus pool money, I don’t know, and I honestly don’t care. All that matters is they sign the important players, which they will, because they always do.

10. On Brock Porter. Last week I noted the Yankees had been connected to Michigan HS RHP Brock Porter – it was said they would “love to get” Porter – who was arguably the best healthy pitcher in the draft class. Well, the Yankees had a chance to draft Porter. Three, in fact. He went to the Rangers with the No. 109 pick, so the Yankees passed at No. 25, No. 61, and No. 100.

This means one of two things happened. Either the Yankees didn’t really like Porter, or Porter’s asking price was beyond their bonus pool means. It is very likely the latter. Whenever a tippy top high school kid winds up being drafted outside the first round, it’s because he has a deal in place at a big number, and told teams he’s only signing at that number (or higher!), and he falls.

That’s what happened with Porter. Texas shocked everyone by taking Rocker with the No. 3 pick and they already have a deal in place at more than $2M underslot. The savings are going to Porter (plus more). I’m sure the Yankees loved Porter. Everyone did. They just couldn’t make it work with the bonus pool. It is what it is. Such is life when you pick late in the first round.

11. About the farm system. It has been a bit of a weird year in the farm system. So many top prospects started the season slowly, then picked it up a few weeks later. Most of them are not on the 40-man roster either, so we can’t blame it on the lockout and the short Spring Training. Minor league camp opened on time. Weird. Well, whatever.

With the caveat that I haven’t spent much time thinking about this, I would rank the Yankees’ top 10 prospects like this at the moment (preseason rankings):

1. SS Anthony Volpe
2. OF Jasson Dominguez
3. OF Everson Pereira
4. SS Oswald Peraza
5. LHP Ken Waldichuk
6. C Austin Wells
7. RHP Hayden Wesneski
8. RHP Will Warren
9. SS Trey Sweeney
10. RHP Luis Gil

Jones probably slots in between Warren and Sweeney? Maybe between Sweeney and Gil? That sounds good to me. SS Roderick Arias, OF Estevan Florial, RHP Luis Medina, RHP Randy Vasquez, and the still somehow prospect-eligible RHP Clarke Schmidt are the next five in some order. (Schmidt is 13.1 innings away from finally graduating to MLB.)

Thorpe is definitely a top 30 prospect in the system and might be in the 15-20 range somewhere. I don’t think anyone else in the draft class jumps into the top 30. The Yankees have too many pitchers who’ve already made the improvements they hope Vrieling, Hampton, et al will make. Let’s check back in a year to see who’s velocity jumped and who has a great new slider.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)