July 11th, 2022: Carpenter, Montgomery, Loaisiga, Trade Targets, All-Stars

The four-city, 10-game, 11-day road trip is finally over. The Yankees went 5-5 during their longest road trip of the season and I’d say it was closer to being an 6-4 trip than a 4-6 trip. Feels like the Yankees haven’t been home in a month. I’m ready to watch a few ballgames in the Bronx before the All-Star break. Anyway, here is Tuesday morning’s post Monday evening since it’s an off-day.

1. Weekend thoughts. I feel like I’ve been watching the same Yankees vs. Red Sox game at Fenway Park since like 2003. Doesn’t matter how good or how bad the teams are, the games are always chaotic and the two clubs always seem to be evenly matched. What an annoying weekend. A few thoughts on the last few games.

The 2021 Yankees return

MLB replaced the 2022 Yankees with the 2021 Yankees for a few games and boy was it noticeable. Dumb baserunning, sloppy defense, making the other team’s bullpen look like the most untouchable bullpen in baseball, etc. The Yankees pulled out all the stops Saturday and Sunday. If they weren’t on pace for 115 wins, I’d be much more annoyed.

“When you win the first two, you want to finish off with a great series. They got behind again tonight and kept banging, and took advantage of some mistakes we made. So it’s a little frustrating in the moment,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch following Sunday’s loss. Let’s rank the top (bottom) three 2021 Yankees-esque moments from the weekend.

3) Higashioka gets caught stealing. I know Kevin Plawecki had been 0-for-14 throwing out runners this year, but Higashioka is a slow-footed catcher (18th percentile in sprint speed) and Aaron Judge was at the plate. I can’t believe I have to spell this out, but I guess I must: let the MLB home run leader hit with as many runners on base as possible at all times. First base is scoring position when Judge is at the plate. Higashioka stealing was a low upside, high risk play.

2) LeMahieu drops two pop ups. Not easy plays! Not for an infielder going back on the ball, anyway. The first drop started the inning, the second allowed the go-ahead run to score. Look where DJ LeMahieu was when he called off center fielder Aaron Hicks on the second pop up:

He’s only a few steps off the infield dirt. The ball didn’t drop until he was back another 20-25 feet. Also, LeMahieu making the catch gives the runner plenty of time to tag up and come home. Hicks coming in on the ball at least has a chance at a play at the plate (that said, the right play would have been throwing to the cutoff man to keep the other runners from advancing with one out in a one-run game in an offense happy ballpark). LeMahieu is as solid as they come in just about every phase of the game, but that was a bad brain farts. When you have to venture that deep into the outfield, just let the outfielder catch it, and definitely don’t call for it until you’re 100% sure you can catch it.

1) Rizzo gets caught stealing. This was very, very bad. Jake Diekman was giving up ropes in the tenth inning Saturday and righties have a .400 OBP and a .242 ISO against him this season, and Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson were due up. Then, for whatever reason, Anthony Rizzo tried to steal third base and was thrown out with ease. The Yankees led 5-3 at the time and the Red Sox were going to have the automatic runner at second base to start the next half-inning, so the tying run was already at the plate. I know Rizzo has a few surprise steals this year, including three of third base, but that was not the time to try it. Just let Stanton and Donaldson take their hacks against a struggling lefty in a ballpark where you need as many runs as possible. Another low upside, high risk play, except this one came in a high leverage situation.

“That play by Christian (Vazquez) at the end, we were talking about the running game, right?” Red Sox manager Alex Cora told Tom Westerholm after the game. “And Rizzo took a chance late in the game there, and we threw him out, and we struck out Stanton and gave us a chance to win the game. There, we are one swing away from tying the game. So great job by Christian throwing Rizzo out.”

Dishonorable mention: Donaldson’s botched double play. I’m not convinced that ball Saturday was a slam dunk game-ending double play. It could have been, but I don’t think it was 100% certain. It wasn’t hard hit (86.5 mph) and Donaldson recovered quickly, and he still only barely got the out at first. Here’s the video. That said, field the ball cleanly and the Yankees at least get the out at second, and keep the winning run at first with two outs. Instead, the winning run advanced to second and was able to score on a single. A costly mistake even though I’m not sold on it being a game-ending double play. It would have been bang-bang at first, if anything.

Other notables: Matt Carpenter and Jose Trevino getting thrown out at second trying to stretch singles into doubles, Boone letting a struggling Jameson Taillon face the middle of the order a third time, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa botching a routine play to open the door for what became a four-run inning. If you’re going to hang around an 80-ish wRC+ all year, you better at least make all the routine plays, and Kiner-Falefa doesn’t. Nothing about him says championship level shortstop.

The Yankees were 48-0 when leading after seven innings prior to Saturday’s loss, and they were 27-1 when leading by at least four runs prior to Sunday’s loss (the one loss was this game). The Reds come to town next and the Yankees could use a good “beat the crap out of a bad team” series. The last few times they played a team in their weight class they got no-hit, their pitching faltered, and they reverted back to the dopey play that sent them home last year. Frustrating weekend. Wake up, fellas.

Matty Baseball

The Yankees need a tenth lineup spot. Just start adding a DH2 to the lineup card and hope no one notices. The Yankees came into the season with nine position players for the eight non-catcher positions, then they picked up Carpenter, who is hitting like peak Don Mattingly. He even has the look:

Shoutout to @YankeeWRLD for saving me work and digging up the photos. Anyway, Rizzo missed a few games with back spasms last week, so Carpenter stepped in as the No. 3 hitter, and he went 13-for-29 (.448) with two doubles and four homers on the road trip. He also played the outfield for the first time in a decade and didn’t embarrass himself.

“He’ll continue to find spots,” Boone told Brendan Kuty. “We’ll see. The season will declare itself and show you. He’s banging and he’s earned a really important place in that room since he’s come over, and he’s done a lot of damage for us.”

Now that he’s seeing time in left and right fields, is Carpenter enough of an outfield solution that the Yankees needn’t trade for an outfielder at the deadline? I think no. Carpenter in the outfield is more of a “Lyle Overbay/Neil Walker in the outfield because it’s best for the team right now” thing, not a long-term solution. The 36-year-old infielder shouldn’t be counted on as an outfielder.

I’m not saying Carpenter should never play the outfield. He seems competent enough out there and it’s another way to get his bat in the lineup. Outfield on a full-time basis is probably too much to ask though. I’d rather get an outfielder and have too much of a good thing than give an outfield spot to Carpenter full-time only to find out he can’t handle it in August or September.

Either way, Carpenter is already one of the greatest in-season scrap heap pickups in Yankees history. He’s fit right in and produced, and there’s nothing fluky about it. His contact quality is the best it’s been in years. He’s hammering the baseball. The Yankees legitimately have more good players than lineup spots. This stuff always sorts itself out, so I will enjoy the embarrassment of riches while it lasts.

“I try not to put too much emphasis on expectations and really just focus on execution of whatever role I had,” Carpenter told Kuty over the weekend. “Didn’t really come in with a bunch of expectations but it’s been really great what’s happened, and I’m very grateful for the opportunity I’ve been given and hopefully will continue to get.”

Montgomery’s efficiency

I haven’t written much about Jordan Montgomery this season and it’s time to rectify that. He’s been fantastic (3.19 ERA and 3.79 FIP in 96 innings) and he’s flying under the radar a bit because he’s not flashy like Gerrit Cole, he doesn’t have the great backstory like Nestor Cortes, and he’s not coming back from injury/surgery like Taillon and Luis Severino.

“I thought Monty was good,” Boone said after Saturday’s loss (video). “Tough righty lineup there to navigate. Got hit pretty hard there in the sixth, gave up some hard contact, but pitched well and put us in position to win a ballgame like he normally does. Just couldn’t pull this one out for him.”

Montgomery debuted a lower arm slot in Spring Training and I thought that was bad news, but people smarter than me said it would be a positive, and it has been. Montgomery is getting more sink on his sinker without sacrificing velocity, and he’s throwing it more than ever too. Nearly 40% of the time. And with the cutter back, he’s back to being a true five-pitch pitcher.

Strikeouts have never been Montgomery’s thing. He’s more of a contact manager and he is managing contact better than ever thanks to the cutter and improved sinker. These are some nice year-to-year improvements:

• Ground ball rate: 42.7% to 47.7% (+5.0%)
• Barrel rate: 7.4% to 5.6% (-1.8%)

Those improvements are both top 20 among the 155 pitchers with at least 100 innings last year and 70 innings this year. Because he’s not a big bat-misser and because he gets a lot of weak contact on the ground, Montgomery is extremely efficient. Arguably the most efficient pitcher in baseball. Setting the minimum at 70 innings pitched:

Pitches per Plate Appearance
1. Jordan Montgomery: 3.54
2. Dylan Bundy: 3.57
3. Martin Perez: 3.58
4. Kyle Freeland: 3.58
5. German Marquez: 3.70
(MLB average: 3.89)

Pitches per Inning
1. Sandy Alcantara: 14.2
2. Jordan Montgomery: 14.4
3. Joe Musgrove: 14.6
4. Justin Verlander: 14.7
5. Martin Perez: 14.7
(MLB average: 16.0)

The Yankees’ other starters have each thrown 100+ pitches in a start at least twice. Montgomery hasn’t done it once. His season high is 97 pitches, and since May (i.e. ignoring the April build up period after the short spring), Montgomery is averaging 84.5 pitches per start. 84.5 pitches but also 5.8 innings per start. Almost six innings per start on fewer than 90 pitches. Incredible.

The Yankees don’t like Montgomery going through the lineup a third time and it’s reasonable. The first two times through the order, Montgomery’s your guy. Things begin to go south once the lineup turns over a third time (since Opening Day 2021):

• First time thru lineup: .245/.299/.362 (.290 wOBA)
• Second time thru lineup: .232/.287/.359 (.283 wOBA)
• Third+ time thru lineup: .250/.307/.415 (.314 wOBA)

That has led to a few instances where Montgomery was pulled after 5-6 innings and only 80 pitches or so. The most extreme example came on May 8th, when Montgomery got through six innings of two-run ball against the Rangers on only 71 pitches, and was pulled to avoid facing the middle of the order a third time in a close game. The numbers say it’s the right move though.

(Given his efficiency and third time through the order issues, Montgomery probably would have been a 220 innings and 4.25 ERA guy had he been born 20 years earlier. A Brad Radke type, basically.)

Montgomery’s last 100-pitch start was last July 27th (102 pitches in five innings vs. Rays), so almost a full calendar year. At some point this season Montgomery will throw 100 pitches. I’m sure of it. It’ll probably be a game in which the offense puts 12 runs on the board through five innings and Boone lets Montgomery empty the tank to save the bullpen, but it’ll happen.

Even with the tight leash, Montgomery consistently pitches into the sixth inning and he does so effectively. He’s allowed more than two runs just four times in 17 starts, he’s limiting hard contact better than ever, and he’s so incredibly efficient. Maybe the Yankees will let him go deeper into games later in the season, once they’re closer to clinching. For now, this is working very well. Props to Montgomery for a sneaky excellent season.

Loaisiga begins rehab assignment

Jonathan Loaisiga, out since May 25th with shoulder inflammation, started a minor league rehab assignment with Low-A Tampa over the weekend. It was uneventful. He retired all three batters he faced (one strikeout and two ground balls) and 12 of his 13 pitches were fastballs. Loaisiga’s heater averaged 95.1 mph and topped out at 97.9 mph, which is down about 2 mph from last year. It’s understandable he may need to build arm strength and/or wasn’t fully airing it out.

“He’ll probably do another one or two (rehab games) with either Somerset or Scranton,” Boone told Kristie Ackert, adding there’s a chance Loaisiga will be activated before the All-Star break. I dunno, with the breaking coming up and a big division lead, why not let Loaisiga rehab through the All-Star break rather than hope 2-3 outings is enough after a seven-week layoff? Then again, who am I to argue? The Yankees know more about Loaisiga’s health and readiness than I do.

Loaisiga didn’t pitch well before going on the injured list (7.02 ERA and 5.08 FIP) and hopefully the shoulder issue explains it. Rest up, get healthy, come back as good as new. That would be ideal. I don’t get the sense the bullpen will be a top priority at the deadline, but, if the Yankees are considering it, I don’t think anything Loaisiga does between now and then should dissuade the Yankees from getting bullpen help. He’ll only have a few appearances under his belt and his injury history is full of red flags.

For now, the most important thing is Loaisiga is healthy and on a rehab assignment. The Yankees are in a position where they don’t need him to come back and make a difference right away, but Loaisiga is important in the grand scheme of things. Shortening games with a lockdown bullpen in October is the plan, and he’s very much part of it. Fingers crossed Loaisiga comes out of this healthy and strong and back to his 2021 form.

Miscellany

Major props to Lucas Luetge. He did hero’s work Friday night. Luetge threw 49 pitches in 3.1 innings (both season highs) in a game that felt like it could go sideways at any moment. He got a save for his efforts, which left long reliever JP Sears available the rest of the weekend (even though he wasn't used), and allowed Mike King and Clay Holmes to make longer than usual appearances Saturday (even in the loss). Luetge has not been quite as good this year as last year (his walks are up and his strikeouts are down), but you can’t complain about a 2.70 ERA (2.70 FIP) in 30 innings from your fourth or fifth best reliever … The LeMahieu drops did Aroldis Chapman no favors, but Chapman was again wild Sunday. He walked two batters and would have walked a third if Bobby Dalbec had even a modicum of pitch recognition. Usually when Chapman struggles with control, his fastball sails up and to his armside. Sunday he was yanking it down and to his gloveside:

Going from “up and armside” to “down and gloveside” seems like a mechanical overcorrection. We didn’t need further confirmation, but Boone going to Wandy Peralta in the tenth inning Saturday is a pretty good indication Chapman is still well outside the Circle of Trust™, as he should be. Chapman had good appearances on back-to-back days in Pittsburgh last week, but he should not see high leverage work unless absolutely necessary. The guy was spiking fastballs in the dirt with the bases loaded Sunday … The Yankees faced four righty starters over the weekend (three rookies) and Joey Gallo started only two games. That doesn’t happen unless the front office is okay with it. Gallo is very far out of the picture right now and he should be. Hard to see him being a Yankee beyond the trade deadline when they won’t let him face rookie righties with a double-digit division lead … And finally, the Yankees faced three position player pitchers during the 10-game road trip (Ernie Clement, Josh VanMeter, Jackie Bradley Jr.). They faced three position player pitchers from 1985-2013. Against those three position player pitchers the Yankees went 12-for-20 (.600) with four homers and four walks. And one strikeout (Bradley got LeMahieu of all people). We’re gonna need to start filtering out stats against position player pitchers at this rate. One one hand, it’s rad the Yankees are facing so many position player pitchers because it means they keep blowing teams out. On the other hand, it’s too much. Teams have eight-man bullpens and they’re still throwing position players out there to save arms. Position players pitching was fun when it happened a few times a year. Not so much now that it’s a widespread strategy.

2. Scouting the Trade Market: Miscellaneous Targets. The trade deadline is three weeks and one day away, and although the Yankees have baseball’s best record, they do have some areas to address. At minimum, they need a lefty hitting outfield bat to replace Joey Gallo, and you can never go wrong with adding more pitching depth.

We’ve already looked at Andrew Benintendi, Ian Happ, Joey Wendle, and various Pirates as potential trade targets. Today I want to look at a handful of players who are worth covering, but probably aren’t worth a full breakdown. We can always come back and dig deeper should they emerge as a serious trade possibility. Let’s look at a few random trade candidates as we await Luis Castillo’s Bronx audition this Thursday.

RHP Jorge Lopez, Orioles

2022 stats: 1.74 ERA (3.08 FIP), 28.0 K%, 8.9 BB%, 58.3 GB% in 41.1 IP
Contract status: $1.5M in 2022 and arb-eligible from 2023-24

A few years back Lopez went from the Brewers to the Royals in the Mike Moustakas trade, then went from the Royals to the Orioles on waivers. He made 31 very bad starts spread across two seasons with Baltimore before they moved him into a relief role last August. Lopez has found a home in the bullpen as a hard-throwing sinker guy who limits hard contact. This is good:

Some guys are just made for the bullpen and Lopez looks to be one of them. His velocity jumped two notches (averaged 95.3 mph as a starter last year, now 97.7 mph as a reliever this year) and he’s missing more bats than ever, plus he gets a ton of ground balls. Ground balls are what led the Yankees to Clay Holmes. It is a classic “this guy’s a different animal as a reliever” story. Lopez, with his power sinker, fits the profile the Yankees have been targeting the last two years.

What would it take? Tough to pin down Lopez’s trade value. He’s been very good this year, but his track record as an above-average big leaguer is short, and surprisingly few relievers are traded with 2.5 years of team control. The Mariners traded a top 15 team prospect (Austin Shenton) and an up-and-down reliever (JT Chargios) for 3.5 years of Diego Castillo last year. That in the ballpark?

One thing to keep in mind is the Yankees rarely trade a significant package for a reliever. They’ll pay top dollar salaries (Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, etc.), but they don’t give up big trade packages to get relievers. Even the Britton trade was one second tier prospect (Dillon Tate) and two fringe prospects (Cody Carroll and Josh Rogers). Just look at the current bullpen:

• Aroldis Chapman: Free agent signing (even his trade was at a discount)
• Clay Holmes: Acquired for two utility player prospects (Diego Castillo and Hoy Jun Park)
• Mike King: Acquired in a 40-man roster cleanup trade (random Yankee Garrett Cooper and random Yankee Caleb Smith)
• Miguel Castro: Acquired for a spare part lefty reliever (Joely Rodriguez)
• Wandy Peralta: Acquired for a spare part outfielder (Mike Tauchman)
• Lucas Luetge: Signed off the scrap heap
• Albert Abreu: Waiver claim
• JP Sears: Acquired for a spare part reliever (Nick Rumbelow)

Chad Green is injured but I guess we could say the Yankees paid a big price for him? He came over with Luis Cessa in the Justin Wilson trade and Wilson was a solid big leaguer. This isn’t to say the Yankees won’t trade for Lopez when his value is at its highest. Just that they’d be breaking character. It’s been a while since they made a trade like that.

I reckon there are a lot of teams kicking themselves, wishing they'd tried to get Lopez on the cheap when he was getting blasted as a starter. Now he’s found himself as a reliever, and while the Orioles are improved, Lopez seems like someone they’ll trade as an almost 30 reliever with only two (rather than, say, four or five) years of control remaining. I’m sure Baltimore’s lone All-Star Game representative is available, though it might hurt to get him.

My take: I buy Lopez's starter-to-reliever improvement and think he's legit, so I give a thumbs out to adding him to the bullpen. I'm not quite sure what the trade package would look like though, and I wouldn't give up top prospects to get a bullpen arm.

OF Joc Pederson, Giants

2022 stats: .259/.336/.536 (141 wRC+), 17 HR, 22.0 K%, 9.2 BB% in 250 PA
Contract status: $4.5M in 2022 plus $10M mutual option ($2.5M buyout) for 2023

The Giants had a charmed season in 2021. Players up and down the roster had career years, even the guys in their mid-30s, and they seemed to win every coin flip game. Everything they did just worked. I don’t think anyone expected them to win 107 games again this year, but here they are at 43-41 in mid July, and having lost 14 of their last 20 games. Yeesh.

All those guys who had career seasons last year are playing their age this year, the great Buster Posey retired, and the Giants are just dreadful in the field. Because the bar for entry has been lowered, San Francisco is still in the postseason race, entering Monday two games behind the third Wild Card spot. My hunch is they’ll add at the deadline and try to get to October.

But, if this 6-14 stretch spirals into, say, 13-25 leading up to the deadline, yeah, the Giants could sell, and they have a prime piece of trade bait in Pederson. Voted into the All-Star Game as a starter, Joc is doing what Joc always does, and that's crush righties and nothing in particular against lefties. His splits:

• vs. RHP: .266/.352/.553 (151 wRC+), 15 HR, 20.8 K%, 10.2 BB% in 216 PA
• vs. LHP: .219/.235/.438 (83 wRC+), 2 HR, 29.4 K%, 2.9 BB% in 34 PA

Pederson, who is still somehow only 30, has long been a great exit velocity guy, which you know Yankees love, and he’s a lefty pull hitter with a swing seemingly tailor-made for the short porch. This has Yankees and Yankee Stadium written all over it (spray chart vs. righties only) (full-size image):

He needs a platoon partner, but Pederson can provide the lefty power the Yankees hoped to get from Gallo. He gives back a lot of value in the field and won’t do much on the bases either, but Joc hits dingers, he’s proven himself in a big market, and he’s been an important role player for the last two World Series champs (with some big postseason moments). This guy knows what it takes to win a title.

What would it take? Rental corner platoon bats get traded every year and we have a healthy database of comparable trades. Pederson himself was traded as a rental last summer. He was not having a particularly good year (90 wRC+ with the Cubs) and he netted first baseman Bryce Ball, who was once a fringe top 100 prospect, but had been fading (think Deivi Garcia-ish).

Here are select trades made at the last three deadlines involving rental corner platoon bats similar to Pederson. These guys don’t require a significant trade package:

• Corey Dickerson: Traded for a non-top-30 team prospect (Andrew McInvale) and international bonus money.
• Mitch Moreland: Traded for two top 20 team prospects (Hudson Potts and Jeisson Rosario).
• Kyle Schwarber: Traded for a team top 20 team prospect (Aldo Ramirez) while on the injured list.
• Jorge Soler: Traded for a top 20 team prospect (Kasey Kalich).

On the high end you have Moreland and on the low end you have Dickerson. Pederson’s having a strong season and if we assume he’ll cost something closer to Moreland than Dickerson, then we’re looking at what, Beck Way and Elijah Dunham types? T.J. Sikkema? Yoendrys Gomez? Anthony Garcia?

Two second or third tier prospects is very doable for the Yankees. It should be, anyway. I’m not saying they should give players away, but when you’re trying to win the World Series, those are the kinda prospects who should always be available. These rental corner platoon bats never fetch much and can make a real difference in the postseason (see: Pederson last year).

I’m not sure the Giants will sell because they’re still in the postseason race, but, if they do, Pederson could be a more cost effective (in terms of prospects) alternative to Benintendi and Happ, and he might produce just as much down the stretch and into October. (And if the Giants do sell, Carlos Rodon would be a wonderful pitching target.)

My take: Even at a higher cost, I would prefer Benintendi or Happ to Pederson because they don't absolutely need partners and are better defenders, plus Happ has the extra year of control (and you can stick him on the infield, if necessary). The "better than Gallo" bar is low and Pederson clears it by a lot. I'd be cool with Joc if the price on the other guys get out of control.

RHP David Robertson, Cubs

2022 stats: 2.10 ERA (3.37 FIP), 31.9 K%, 12.1 BB%, 49.3 GB% in 34.1 IP
Contract status: $3.5M in 2022

I don’t have to spend long on Robertson, do I? We all know him. Now 37, Robertson is in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery and he’s been great, doing his cutter/curveball thing and missing bats. He’s even toyed with a slider. Also, Robertson is throwing harder now than he did in 2018, his last fully healthy season.

A healthy elbow and all that hard rehab work can do wonders for velocity. Robertson can pitch in any role (closer, setup, middle relief, etc.) and he’s passed every “can he handle New York?” test you could throw at him. Robertson is definitely available as a good rental reliever on a bad team, and plenty of contenders will want him. He can help any World Series hopeful’s bullpen.

What would it take? Rental relievers – great rental relievers – are traded all the time. These are from last year’s trade deadline:

• Andrew Chafin: Traded for a top 15 team prospect (Greg Deichmann) and a non-top-30 team prospect (Daniel Palencia).
• Mychal Givens: Traded for a top 15 team prospect (Noah Davis) and a non-top-30 team prospect (Case Williams).
• Brad Hand: Traded for a top 10 team prospect (Riley Adams).
• Daniel Hudson: Traded for a top 10 team prospect (Mason Thompson) a non-top 30 team prospect (Jordy Barley).
• Ryan Tepera: Traded for a team top 20 prospect (Bailey Horn).

The Britton trade works here too. The Yankees gave up a top 10 team prospect (Tate) and two non-top-30 team prospects (Carroll and Rogers). That's to be the going rate for a good rental reliever these days. A top 10-15-ish prospect, plus a secondary piece or two. That seems eminently doable for the Yankees.

It’s important to remember that when the Yankees make trades this deadline, they are doing so to improve their World Series odds. They’re not making trades just to get to the postseason like last year. A postseason spot is in the bag and they’re sitting pretty in the AL East race. The Yankees aren’t going to make trades for August and September. Any trades will be about October (and possibly 2023 and beyond).

On one hand, how much do you want to give up to get, say, 12 innings of Robertson in October? They could be extremely high leverage innings that move the championship needle considerably, but it might only be 12 innings in the best case scenario. Everything in this game boils down to a math equation these days and those 12 innings might not be worth the asking price.

One the other hand, wouldn’t you prefer to have Robertson on the mound in important situations in the postseason over Miguel Castro? Or the current version of Aroldis Chapman? Jonathan Loaisiga is on the mend but wasn’t effective before going on the injured list, and we have no idea what he’ll look like when he returns. Bottom line, Robertson can help any bullpen, the Yankees included, and he wouldn’t be out of place throwing high leverage innings in the postseason.

My take: Yup. Sign me up. Tell the Cubs to pick a top 10-15 prospect and get it done.

RHP Noah Syndergaard, Angels

2022 stats: 3.84 ERA (3.83 FIP), 18.8 K%, 5.5 BB%, 45.6 GB% in 70.1 IP
Contract status: $21M in 2022

The Angels are so bad they give me anxiety. How do you have Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, the two greatest talents in the game today, and have a worse record than the Orioles? It’s July and the Angels have already given 363 plate appearances to Tyler Wade and Andrew Velazquez (both have set a new career high in plate appearances this year). What the hell? The Angels started 22-12, you know. They are 16-37 since.

Anaheim has crashed hard enough that they’re seven games behind the third Wild Card spot with six teams ahead of them in the race. They’re going to miss the postseason again. They should sell, and Syndergaard is an obvious candidate to be moved (he declined the qualifying offer last year and thus can’t receive it again this year, so there’s no draft pick coming). The 29-year-old former Met has been okay at best this year.

Once a high strikeout dominator, Syndergaard is more of a pitch-to-contact sinker guy now. This is his first full season back from Tommy John surgery and it’s understandable there’s been some rust, but you’re only getting him for this year. This is the version you’re getting down the stretch and into the postseason. Not the guy who’s further away from surgery in 2023 and beyond.

Because the Angels use a six-man rotation to control Ohtani’s workload, Syndergaard has not made a single start on normal rest this season. None of the Angels have (other than the various openers they've used). In fact, Syndergaard has made 13 starts this year and 10 were on at least two extra days of rest. This guy has been handled with kid gloves.

That might not be such a bad thing for the Yankees. They’re already talking about limiting the workloads of their non-Gerrit Cole starters and, if the Yankees are willing to be creative with Nestor Cortes, Syndergaard could slot into a 5.5-man rotation. In that scenario Cortes would be the swingman who makes spot starts between long relief appearances in the second half. Seem doable?

Syndergaard is not the pitcher he was a few years ago when he was a bona fide ace, but there is talent there, and the Yankees have a thing for maximizing pitching talent. He seems like a candidate to come to the Yankees and get better. Also, Syndergaard is familiar with New York (he had some great postseason moments with the Mets) and that would ease the transition.

Bottom line, Syndergaard is very talented and at least gives you a chance at excellence. Given what we’ve seen this year, this probably isn’t the guy to target if you want someone to be a No. 3 starter in the postseason. And also given what we’ve seen this year, we kinda have to give the Yankees the benefit of the doubt when it comes to unlocking pitchers who are more potential than production.

What would it take? Rental starter trade packages come in all shapes and sizes. Andrew Heaney fetched two non-top-30 team prospects (Janson Junk and Elvis Peguero). Rich Hill was salary dumped for an injured big leaguer (Tommy Hunter) and a non-top-30 prospect (Matt Dyer). Taijuan Walker netted a top 15 team prospect (Alberto Rodriguez). J.A. Happ was traded for two spare parts (Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney). The trade packages are all over the map.

I will note the Angels traded Heaney (Junk and Peguero) and Tony Watson (Sam Selman) for players who were essentially MLB ready. All three guys pitched for Anaheim after the deadline last year, and I could see them going the same route with Syndergaard. You want Syndergaard? It’ll cost you someone who could be in the big leagues tomorrow. Can the Yankees swing that? Sure. Are they willing to do it? Depends whether they think they can help Syndergaard level up.

My take: I like Syndergaard more as an inventory arm along the lines of Heaney or random Yankee Jaime Garcia. Someone to soak up innings down the stretch. The long ball is catching up to Cortes and Jameson Taillon has crashed hard the last few weeks, so the Yankees should look into adding another starter. Syndergaard figures to be available and could have untapped potential. 

3. More on the All-Star Game. At this time next week baseball’s best and brightest will be in Los Angeles for the All-Star Game. The starters (fan vote) and reserves (player vote and commissioner’s office) were announced over the weekend and the Yankees will be well-represented at the Midsummer Classic. Here’s the latest All-Star news.

Stanton voted in as starter, may hit in Home Run Derby

In a pleasant surprise, Giancarlo Stanton edged out George Springer (22% to 20%) in the fan voting and will start alongside Mike Trout and Aaron Judge in the American League outfield. Judge and Stanton will be the first pair of Yankees outfielders to start the All-Star Game since Hall of Famers Rickey Henderson and Dave Winfield in 1988. Here are the All-Star Game starters.

“It’s amazing. Thank you to the fans. It’s really cool to be able to go where I grew up and be in the All-Star Game,” Stanton told Bryan Hoch over the weekend. “It’s going to be really cool. We were joking about it in the dugout. It’s going to be fun. It’s going to be a lot of good memories.”

This is Stanton’s first All-Star Game as a Yankee and his fifth overall. It’s his second start (also 2015). In another pleasant surprise (to me, anyway), Stanton strongly hinted at participating in the Home Run Derby. “Nothing’s official, but I definitely could be there,” Stanton told Lindsey Adler. Sounds like “I’m doing it but they told me not to say anything yet” to me.

Stanton took his hacks in the Home Run Derby three times previously (2014, 2016, 2017) and he won it with a then-record 61 homers in 2016. A few years ago Stanton said he was tired of the Home Run Derby and wasn’t planning to do it again, but I guess he doesn’t want to pass up a chance to do it in his hometown. Can’t blame him.

The Home Run Derby curse has been debunked many times and Stanton didn’t have a noticeable decline in performance in his three Home Run Derby years. In fact, you can argue the Home Run Derby helped Stanton in 2017. He hit 26 homers in 86 games in the first half, then 33 homers in 73 games in the second half en route to being named NL MVP. (Juan Soto said the Home Run Derby fixed his swing last year. He had a monster second half.)

Stanton’s had a good but uneven first half: .236/.320/.512 (133 wRC+) with 22 homers. He went on a month-long heater before spending 10 days on the injured list with a calf strain in late May, and he’s been kinda searching for it since. At some point Giancarlo will go on one of his “carry the team” hot streaks. When he does, I look forward to attributing it to the Home Run Derby.

(The Home Run Derby bracket will be announced Thursday. Sounds like Stanton will be there. Two-time defending champ Pete Alonso will be there. Ronald Acuna will be there. The host Dodgers will probably have someone. Shohei Ohtani? Gotta think MLB wants him there. We’ll find out soon.)

Cole, Cortes, Holmes, Trevino selected as reserves

It’ll be the Yankees vs. the National League at the All-Star Game. The Yankees are sending an MLB high six players to Los Angeles: Judge, Stanton, Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Clay Holmes, and Jose Trevino. The last four guys were voted in on the players’ ballot, MLB says. Here are the full rosters. Joe Mantiply, who pitched one game for the 2019 Yankees, made it for the Diamondbacks.

“It means a lot. I just want to thank everybody that voted for me,” Trevino told Hoch (here’s video of Trevino getting the news). “Thank you to the people that believed in me, that stuck with me. It’s been a long, long journey. I’m out to prove the people that believed in me right. I’m not trying to prove anyone wrong anymore.”

I love the mix of the six All-Stars. The Yankees have three guys who “should” be All-Stars in Cole (largest pitching contract ever), Judge (possible MVP this year), and Stanton (former MVP). They also have three first-timers who came out of nowhere in Cortes (minor league deal), Holmes (minor trade), and Trevino (minor trade). I’m so happy Nestor made it. What a story.

“All the struggles that I had coming through the system, not being a ranked prospect, and not really being a good big leaguer,” Cortes told Hoch. “I guess I would say that I stayed focused. I didn’t let any negative news determine my future. I kept my head down and we’re here today. I’m grateful for the opportunity.”

The Yankees have six All-Stars for the first time since 2011 (Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, Derek Jeter, Russell Martin, Mariano Rivera, Alex Rodriguez) and multiple All-Star starting pitchers for the first time since 2010 (Phil Hughes, Andy Pettitte, CC Sabathia). The best team in baseball is sending a lot of players to the All-Star Game. News at 11. Congrats to Cortes, Holmes, and Trevino in particular. They all took a long road here.

Yankees campaigning for King

The Yankees are using Monday’s off-day to shuffle the rotation a bit. They’re flip-flopping Cole and Luis Severino, giving Severino an extra day of rest. It also means Cole will pitch Tuesday and Sunday, and because he’s pitching Sunday, he won’t be eligible to pitch in the All-Star Game*. He will be at Dodger Stadium for the festivities, but he'll be replaced on the active roster.

* Cortes is scheduled to pitch Thursday. He'll be nice and rested for the All-Star Game and could get an inning. I hope he does.

There are plenty of deserving pitchers to take Cole’s spot (Dylan Cease, most notably), though the Yankees are kinda campaigning for Mike King. “There’s a number of other guys here including Michael King who are deserving or certainly worthy of consideration … He’s been enormous. I think he deserves it. You never know how this last week will go,” Boone told Brendan Kuty.

“Yeah, I’m really pulling for Mike,” Cole told Kuty. “I want everybody to be there, but I think Anthony Rizzo is very deserving. I think Michael certainly is very much deserving as well. I could go on and go down the lineup, but we’ll just leave it at those two specifically.”

Nine relievers were selected to the two All-Star Game rosters and all but Mantiply are lockdown closers. There's a small army of non-closers who deserve consideration (Brock Burke, John Schreiber, Ryne Stanek, etc.) but King has the advantage of being a Yankee, and that equals more attention. Plus it’s not like he’s undeserving. He’s second among relievers in WAR.

When picking replacements, MLB typically takes whoever’s next on the players’ ballot unless they need to satisfy the “every team needs an All-Star” requirement. I have no idea where King sits on the players’ ballot and those votes have already been cast, so the Yankees campaigning for King isn’t going to help much. I hope he makes it though. Would be neat.

Cabrera and Pujols selected as Legends All-Stars

The new Collective Bargaining Agreement includes a clause giving commissioner Rob Manfred the ability to unilaterally name players to the All-Star Game. Here’s the clause:

In addition to the 32 players elected and selected to the All-Star Game, the Commissioner may choose to add one player that he selects to each League’s roster, in recognition of each player’s career achievements. If special circumstances warrant, the Commissioner may select more than one player to each league’s roster.

That is essentially a Legends clause and it reads like it was written specifically to get Albert Pujols is at the All-Star Game this year, his final season. He said he will retire after the season and he hasn’t been to an All-Star Game since 2015. Pujols is in the inner circle of the inner circle of the Hall of Fame and one last going away bash at the All-Star Game will be very cool.

Miguel Cabrera, another future Hall of Famer, was selected as a Legends All-Star even though he’s under contract next year and has given no indication he’s retiring. I’m totally cool with this Legends clause. Too bad it wasn’t around in 2019 so Sabathia could have pitched in Cleveland rather than just go out to make a mound visit (video).

The Legends clause won’t be used every year (maybe Justin Verlander and/or Max Scherzer get the call in a few years?) and the Yankees don’t have anyone who will get this treatment anytime soon. Eventually the All-Star Game will come back to Yankee Stadium. Maybe late career Cole or Judge will be a Legends All-Star when it does.

4. 2022 draft prospect: Illinois State OF Ryan Cermak. The 2022 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 25 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

Cermak had an eventful spring that included a 10 RBI game and homers in four straight plate appearances at one point. He hit .340/.441/.696 (162 wRC+) with 19 homers in 48 games. The 13.1% walk rate and 19.2% strikeout rate are good in a vacuum but not eye-popping for a player expected to be drafted relatively high. Here are Cermak’s current draft rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 40
• FanGraphs: Not ranked in top 96
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 92
• MLB.com: No. 85

Cermak passed on summer ball last year and teams didn’t get a look at him with wood bats, and that hurts his standing more than helps it. Those 19 homers this spring came against middling competition in the Missouri Valley Conference and who knows whether his power plays play with wood bats. Here’s video and here’s a piece of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d):

The athletic, strong 6-foot-1, 205-pound righthanded hitter has soared up draft boards this spring and projects to be one of the first center fielders off the board in July. Offensively, Cermak swings a dangerous stick, with plus bat speed and aggression. When squared, he generates exit velocities up to 110 mph … If there are any holes in Cermak’s offensive approach, it lies in the fact that he’s a dead pull hitter. Pitchers would find success this spring with executed fastballs and sliders away, and sometimes off the plate. Driving the ball the other way more consistently will work in Cermak’s favor as opposing arms will quickly learn not to challenge him middle-in. Cermak’s play on the defensive side is equally impressive. With a highlight reel that’s loaded with Sports Center Top 10 type plays, there’s no question in the minds of evaluators he will continue to shine in center field at the professional level. How about arm strength? He’s been up to 95 off the mound, which gives him another asset in the grass. Cermak will turn in above-average run times down the first base line, giving him a complete package of above-average of better tools.

MLB.com notes Cermak “cut down on his chases and his swings and misses” this spring while Keith Law (subs. req’d) adds there’s a “lot of extra movement” in his swing, with “a drift forward over his front side and a habit of opening his hips early, but he makes up for some of this with great hand acceleration leading to plus bat speed.” Picturesque it is not.

The Yankees went for the “hitter from a non-power conference with big exit velocity and too much movement in his swing” profile with Trey Sweeney last year, and after a sluggish start (and a hamstring injury), Sweeney’s starting to live up to his first round draft slot now. The Yankees cleaned up his swing and look to have a pretty good prospect.

Cermak has the hard-hit ability the Yankees like and they’re not afraid of hitters who need to clean up their swing a bit, plus he has strong supporting skills in his center field defense. He’s more of a project that some other college hitters expected to be on the board for the No. 25 pick, but Cermak has loud tools and a more well-rounded game than most. I’m profiling Cermak because I like him (the Yankees haven’t been connected to him as far as I know), and I could see him as a fit for No. 25.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. The Braves traded three prospects to the Royals for their Competitive Balance Round draft pick (No. 35 overall with a $2.2M slot value) on Monday. The best prospect, outfielder Drew Waters, was a top 100 guy a year ago, but he’s really struggled in Triple-A and is seen as a high strikeout fourth outfielder type now. The Yankees' equivalent is Estevan Florial a year or two ago. I say it every year: I hope the Yankees get in on trading for an extra draft pick(s) one of these days. Competitive Balance picks became tradeable in 2017 and since then the Yankees have traded for a pick just once, when they got the No. 38 selection in the 2019 draft in the Sonny Gray trade with the Reds. They used the pick on lefty T.J. Sikkema. Packaging three expendable prospects for the No. 35 pick is a good bit of business by the defending World Series champs … During the FOX broadcast Saturday night Ken Rosenthal said the Yankees reached out to Rob Refsnyder about a reunion over the winter. Could you imagine Refsnyder, Manny Banuelos, and Greg Bird all back in the farm system (and Shane Greene too)? Refsnyder got called up in late April and has played well as a righty platoon bat, going 14-for-30 (.467) with three doubles and two homers against lefties. Can’t blame him for signing with the Red Sox over the Yankees. If I were picking a team as a journeyman, I’d go with the team where I have to beat out Jackie Bradley Jr. for a job, not Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo … And finally, the deadline for MLB and the MLBPA to agree to an international draft is July 25th, so exactly two weeks away (they could always push the deadline back). If they agree to an international draft, the qualifying offer system goes away. If they don’t agree to an international draft, nothing changes. MLB and the MLBPA have exchanged proposals in recent days. Here’s the latest via Alden Gonzalez:

MLB’s proposed $5.1M slot for the No. 1 pick is what the Yankees gave Jasson Dominguez back in 2019, which is the largest bonus of the international hard cap era (the Athletics gave Robert Puason $5.1M that year too). That’s where MLB got their number, though that number is three years old now, and should be adjusted upward. We'll see where this goes. An international draft would be bad news for the Yankees because it would cut off access to the best international talent each year. Two weeks until the deadline.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)