July 8th, 2022: Judge, Donaldson, Hicks, Gonzalez, Cole, All-Stars, Rodriguez, Mailbag

On this date in 2000, the Yankees and Mets played baseball’s first two-stadium doubleheader since 1903. The Yankees won the day game 4-2 at Shea Stadium and the night game 4-2 at Yankee Stadium. Mariano Rivera saved both games. Here’s the video. MLB should make two-stadium doubleheaders an annual thing. It doesn’t always have to be Yankees-Mets. Rotate Yankees-Mets, Cubs-White Sox, Athletics-Giants, etc. MLB could swing Angels-Dodgers, right? The league can afford to charter some helicopters to avoid traffic. There’s another free good idea for you, MLB. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. You know what’s cool? Going to a National League park and not losing the DH. The Yankees played their first road interleague series of the universal DH era this week (not counting the pandemic season) and it was so nice not worrying Jameson Taillon would reinjure his ankle running the bases or having a rally die when the pitcher came up. PNC Park is gorgeous. I haven’t been there since this game, but it’s spectacular. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

Judge’s soreness

All that running around in center field may be catching up to Aaron Judge. Judge was not in the lineup for Thursday’s opener in Boston. He was not in Sunday’s lineup either (Aaron Boone said he didn’t want to use him in the field) and Monday was an off-day, then Judge came out of Wednesday’s blowout a few innings early. The Yankees are calling it lower body soreness.

“It’s more the last couple of days. He’s been grinding through a lot this half. I just know when he starts to get that tightness down there, it’s not something that I want to become a bigger issue,” Boone told Bryan Hoch. “The lower half, his calves, he just gets a little heavy and tight. More than anything, it’s just something I don’t want to mess with, especially with where we are in the season. I don’t want it to be a larger issue, so it’s hopefully something we will get out ahead of.”

Boone said Judge was available pinch-hit before Thursday’s game, though I assume that wasn’t true because Matt Carpenter hit against a lefty with a runner on in the ninth inning (nothing wrong with making the Red Sox think Judge was available though). Even if the Red Sox countered with a righty reliever, that was the time to use Judge. Maybe he would have pinch-hit if they were down a run instead of up a run? Seems like Boone really wanted to avoid using Judge though.

Needless to say, with baseball’s best record and a double-digit lead in the AL East, the Yankees should be overly cautious with Judge. Who cares about beating the Red Sox in early July? The goal is winning the World Series and under no circumstances should the Yankees push Judge and risk a seemingly little thing becoming a big thing. Same with Anthony Rizzo’s stiff back.

I don’t know whether playing center field actually contributed to this but Judge is 30 years old and listed at 6-foot-7 and 282 lbs. I can see how having to cover gap-to-gap every night could lead to some lower body soreness. Judge has started 29 of the last 39 games in center, and the Yankees just did 20 games in 20 days not long after a 23 games in 22 days stretch. It’s a lot.

The Yankees need an outfielder at the trade deadline because Joey Gallo has been ineffective, and if they can get someone capable of playing center field (hello, Bryan Reynolds), they should do it because center fielders are hard to find, and they need one moving forward anyway. Judge’s lower body soreness might be the thing that moves a center field capable outfielder from “would like” to “must have” at the deadline. Rest up, Aaron. No need to rush back right now.

Donaldson getting back on track

Finally, some signs of life from Josh Donaldson. He’s gone deep each of the last two games, both times against righties. Prior to Wednesday’s game Donaldson was hitting .200/.262/.316 (63 wRC+) in 25 games since coming off the injured list, including an unplayable .160/.226/.213 (26 wRC) against righties. Some of Donaldson’s year-to-year numbers are straight up scary. This is among the 266 players with at least 400 plate appearances last year and 200 plate appearances this year:

• Strikeout rate: 21.0% in 2021 to 26.0% in 2022 (11th largest increase in MLB)
• Swinging strike rate: 11.3% to 13.5% (12th largest increase)
• Chase rate: 21.4% to 29.9% (6th largest increase)
• Average exit velocity: 94.1 mph to 91.6 mph (18th largest decrease)
• Hard-hit rate: 52.7% to 44.8% (18th largest decrease)
• Barrel rate: 17.4% to 10.3% (2nd largest decrease)

It’s important to note Donaldson’s exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate are all still better than the MLB average (88.7 mph, 38.5%, 7.8%). That’s good. But Josh Donaldson was Josh frickin’ Donaldson because his contact quality was so much better than average. Now it’s much closer to average. Let’s be real here, a 36-year-old player making less contact and chasing more, and not hitting the ball as hard as in the past, is a cause for concern.

“He still has great bat speed, we know that,” hitting coach Dillon Lawson told Dan Martin and Greg Joyce last weekend. “He still has power, it’s just the results haven’t come. That’s the most encouraging thing because you know he can get to the other side. It’s not that the power’s been lost, he just needs to maximize his bat speed and exit velocity with the right kind of ball flight. At times, he’s putting it on the ground or popping it up, so he’s working on his bat-path and swing plane.”

Even when he wasn’t hitting, Donaldson contributed with his defense, so he wasn’t a total zero. And similar to Aroldis Chapman, the potential reward is so great that the Yankees shouldn’t give up on Donaldson entirely. Give some stray DH starts to Matt Carpenter? Sure, but bench him completely and put DJ LeMahieu at third base full-time? No, this is not the time to do that. The luxury of a huge division lead is the ability to remain patient with struggling players.

Donaldson now has homers – both well-struck bombs, not some short porch cheapies – against righties in back-to-back games. He has six extra-base hits in his last nine games, or as many as he had in his previous 27 games combined. After too many weeks of discombobulated swings and unproductive at-bats, this is a welcome sight. Donaldson is having his worst full season and the season’s half over. It’s not early anymore, but a strong finish is better than nothing.

“Donaldson’s been good,” Boone told Erik Boland in Houston last week. “... I feel like JD’s been really close for a while now. He’s getting his hits, he’s getting his walks, he’s controlling the zone for the most part. He just hasn’t had that hot streak yet. I don’t feel like JD’s far off at all, he just hasn’t hit that stretch where it’s like, boom, boom, boom, boom. He’ll get there.”

Hicksie getting his SLG back

Aaron Hicks is starting to drive the ball. Earlier this year he hit nothing hard. He was taking his walks – Hicks has had a sub-.330 OBP exactly one day this year (.326 on May 29th) – but he had no thump. Now he has two homers*, two doubles, and a triple in his last three games. That’s as many extra-base hits as he had in his previous 64 (!) games combined.

* One of the homers came off a position player, but I’m not sure Hicks could have taken a position player deep earlier this season. I’m not even joking. He was that punchless.

This is encouraging:

I gotta think the wrist surgery plays a part in the loss of power. Wrist injuries are known to sap power for a while, even after the player has recovered and is cleared to return to game action, and Hicks looks like a player who needed time to get over wrist surgery. At least that’s what I hope. The punchless version of Hicks is a liability. The version with some pop is a good player though. Fingers crossed this is the start of something.

In praise of Marwin

Shoutout to Marwin Gonzalez. By bench player standards, he’s been very productive this year, and especially over the last few weeks. Gonzalez is hitting .257/.309/.416 (107 wRC+) overall and .313/.353/.583 (166 wRC+) with three homers since June 1st. Here is his playing time breakout by position:

• 1B: 1 game and 1 inning
• 2B: 1 game and 1 inning
• SS: 13 games (11 starts) and 93.2 innings
• 3B: 9 games (7 starts) and 65 innings
• LF: 11 games (8 starts) and 72 innings
• RF: 11 games (4 starts) and 45 innings

That 166 wRC+ since June 1st comes in only 51 plate appearances and that’s kinda the point. Gonzalez doesn’t play much, but when he does play, he’s been productive. At one point in June he started once in a 13-team game span and took an at-bat in only two of those 13 games. He’s gone as many as five days between at-bats this season, and he’s done that multiple times.

With a guy who plays as infrequently as Gonzalez, there’s no point in getting wrapped up in exit velocity (it’s below average) and defensive stats (average across the board). He is never given an opportunity to get in a rhythm at the plate, he doesn’t get to settle into one position, nothing like that. Boone puts Gonzalez on the shelf and lets him collect dust, but also doesn’t have to worry about a dead battery when he needs him. Marwin is always ready despite long layoffs.

“I think he’s so valuable in what he brings to the table,” Boone told Randy Miller last week. “With his defensive flexibility and the ability to have a guy with his level of experience and the success he’s had to be able to – whether it’s stepping into an everyday role or whether he’s sat for six or seven days and now all of a sudden he’s thrust into action – you trust what he’s going to be able to do and what he’s going to be able to bring.”

Now 33, Gonzalez was pretty terrible the last few years, hitting .238/.308/.378 (87 wRC+) from 2018-21 and .204/.279/.310 (62 wRC+) from 2020-21, and there were times with the Red Sox and Astros last year where Marwin looked done. There was no life in his bat and he didn’t move well in the field, and there were reasons to be skeptical about his ability to contribute in 2022. Gonzalez apparently played through a hamstring injury last year though*, and now he looks healthy.

* I can’t find it now but Red Sox manager Alex Cora praised the Yankees for signing Gonzalez in Spring Training, saying he would be a good pickup because he’s healthy and never really was last year. I kinda ignore anything Cora says because it’s hard to tell when he’s being sincere or ribbing, but I guess he meant it.

A switch-hitter with a little pop and the ability to play just about any position competently is a guy worth having on the bench. Gonzalez isn’t a young kid who is losing out on crucial developmental at-bats by sitting on the bench, and his play hasn’t suffered because he often goes several days between games. Being a bench guy is hard. Players are used to playing everyday and then they just don’t. Marwin’s figured out to be successful in such a limited role. It’s not easy.

There’s a lot of season remaining and plenty of time for Gonzalez to crash and become a zero. If it happens, the Yankees will deal with it. For now, he’s been a solid and reliable bench piece for a team that doesn’t use its bench all that often. He’s been perfect for the role. Marwin can hit a little bit and catch what he’s supposed to catch in the field. Props for a good job so far.

Miscellany

I don't think Gerrit Cole could get Rafael Devers out in a video game. This is getting ridiculous. After those two home runs Thursday night Devers is 7-for-23 (.304) with six homers against Cole, including three this year. Cole is defensive when he pitches him too. This is the opposite of challenging a hitter:

You have to give Devers credit for going deep twice when that’s what Cole threw him, but also maybe challenge the guy when you’re throwing 100 mph? Cole does this with Ji-Man Choi too. He pitches him like he’s Barry Bonds because he hit a few home runs off him two years ago. As good as he is, Cole gets too timid at times. Not the best trait for a $324M ace. Cole was great Thursday when anyone other than Devers was at the plate … It all worked out Thursday, but Devers-JD Martinez-Xander Bogaerts with a one-run lead at Fenway Park is a Clay Holmes inning to me. That’s the most dangerous, most high leverage inning. Wandy Peralta and Mike King got the job done in the eighth, but yeah, give me Holmes in that spot eight days a week (the 2021 Yankees 100% lose that game by the way) … Am I crazy for thinking Taillon wasn’t as bad as his line (5 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 0 BB, 5 K, 2 HR) the other night? Most of the damage was confined to one inning, and while Taillon certainly left a few mistakes in the middle of the plate, he also got burned on a couple well-located pitches. Reynolds got to a 92 mph inside cutter that saws off lesser hitters, and Yoshi Tsutsugo reached out and poked a ball off the plate the other way:

Ultimately, the line is what counts, and Taillon has 6.16 ERA (4.48 FIP) with six homers allowed in his last six starts after having a 2.30 ERA (2.86 FIP) with four homers allowed in his first 10 starts. The crash back to Earth is never fun. Taillon looks like a guy looking forward to getting a little breather during the All-Star break in two weeks … One day after I said I think we’ll see Carpenter play more outfield going forward, but maybe not full games, he started in right field. Go figure. It was his first outfield start since 2013. Carpenter did not have a playable ball hit his way and the spray chart is almost comical. Incredible how the ball didn't find the 36-year-old infielder masquerading as a right fielder for one night (the Pirates had one switch-hitter and seven lefties in the lineup, yet none managed to pull the ball in the air to even moderately deep right):

If starting 36-year-old Carpenter in the outfield for the first time in almost a decade isn’t Boone crying for outfield help, I don’t know what is. Get on it, front office … And finally, old buddy Manny Banuelos loaded the bases and gave up a grand slam to Judge the other night. I can think of no greater parting gift. Give ‘em hell the rest of the year in Pittsburgh, Manny.

2. All-Star Game updates. The All-Star Game is less than two weeks away and then the trade deadline is two weeks after that. There’s been some All-Star Game news the last few days, so let’s round it up and discuss it.

Three Yankees heading to Futures Game

The Yankees are sending three players to the Futures Game next week: OF Jasson Dominguez, SS Anthony Volpe, and LHP Ken Waldichuk. The host Dodgers are the only other team sending three players. I had all three players on my Futures Game watch list last month, not that picking the best prospects is the hardest thing in the world. Here are the full Futures Game rosters.

“It’s definitely a super great honor and one I don’t take lightly,” Volpe told Greg Johnson after the rosters were announced. “I found out a couple weeks ago and was able to tell my parents and help them get some travel arrangements set up. I kind of kept it under wraps, but it was pretty cool when I found out.”

MLB shortened the Futures Game to seven innings in 2019 and the American League has 10 pitchers on the roster, so I’m not sure how that’s going to work. I guess some guys will only get an out or two? I assume Ky Bush, a local Angels prospect, will start for the AL. In that case Waldichuk will come out of the bullpen. Preparation for his second half role? Hmmm. HMMM.

In all seriousness, we’ll know the Yankees are preparing Waldichuk for a potential big league bullpen role when he starts coming out of the bullpen with Triple-A Scranton. What he does in the Futures Game won’t matter one bit. His usage with the RailRiders will be the tell. Anyway, three Yankees are heading to the Futures Game next Saturday. Neat.

(The Futures Game will air exclusively on Peacock Premium, so I guess I won’t be watching live. Seems to me trying to grow the game by showcasing the best prospects while also hiding them behind a subscription service is counterintuitive, but what do I know. As long as the check clears, MLB is happy.)

Phase 2 of All-Star Game voting underway

Underway and almost closed. The voting ends at 1:59 p.m. ET on Friday. Jose Trevino is up against Alejandro Kirk behind the plate and Giancarlo Stanton is up against Mike Trout, George Springer, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. for the two outfield spots alongside Aaron Judge. Thursday’s update showed Trevino is getting lapped by Kirk, and Stanton is currently on track to start (but is only one percentage point ahead of Springer).

Blue Jays fans are stuffing the ballot and I’m going to guess Springer passes Stanton and winds up starting alongside Judge and Trout. What are the chances Stanton is rooting for Springer to overtake him so he can go on vacation instead of having to go to the All-Star Game? Pretty good, I bet. Stanton’s been there, done that. He would probably rather chill for a few days.

The full All-Star Game rosters will be announced Sunday evening, making this my last chance to chime in on who I think should and will be in Los Angeles in two weeks. Let’s break it down.

Locks: Judge. Judge was the leading vote-getter in Phase 1 of the fan voting and that means he skips Phase 2, and is given an automatic starting spot. This will be his fourth All-Star Game start (also 2017, 2018, 2021). Even if he wasn’t the leading vote-getter, Judge was going to the All-Star Game. Easy call.

Safe bets: Gerrit Cole and Clay Holmes. Kinda funny how we spent two months joking about Cole being the No. 5 starter (and to be fair, he was the team’s fifth best starter for much of the season), and now he’s very likely to be an All-Star. The vast majority of the All-Star rosters are selected through a player vote and Cole is highly regarded among his peers. The good news is he won’t have to face Rafael Devers in the All-Star Game because he’ll be his teammate.

Holmes has been automatic and on the very short list of the game’s best relievers this season. Did you know Holmes is eighth in MLB in saves? He hasn’t been the closer that long, yet he’s racked up a ton of saves. The whole “it’s hard for non-closers to be an All-Star” caveat no longer applies. Cole and Holmes are good bets to be All-Stars.

Good chance: Nestor Cortes and Mike King. Nestor’s battle with home run rate regression threatens his spot, but he’s still top six in the league in ERA, WHIP, WAR, strikeout rate, etc. He remains deserving. That said, there are a good number of pitchers who are just as (if not more) deserving, threatening to push Cortes out. Could this be a situation where Cortes isn’t on the initial roster, then is later added as an injury or workload replacement? Three pitchers were added to the AL roster as replacements last year. Four were added in 2019. Seems possible?

As for King, he’s been awesome, but he is not a closer, and non-closers always face an uphill battle come All-Star selection time. Sending four pitchers to the All-Star Game is a lot, though the Brewers did it just last year with Corbin Burnes, Josh Hader, Freddie Peralta, and Brandon Woodruff. It’s doable, but it doesn’t happen often. I’d say Cortes is more deserving than King, and I think Nestor is more likely to get recognized by his peers in the player vote.

Best of the rest: DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Anthony Rizzo, Luis Severino. Remember when all the Astros withdrew from the All-Star Game last year so they wouldn’t get booed? Jose Altuve is up against Santiago Espinal for the starting second base spot, and if he ducks out again, it would potentially open a spot for LeMahieu or Torres. Andres Gimenez and Trevor Story would be in that mix too, plus maybe Luis Arraez (though he’s played more first than second this year and was on the fan ballot as a first baseman).

First base in the AL is bleak. Vlad Guerrero Jr. figures to win the fan voting, and Ty France is expected to return from his Grade 2 flexor strain this weekend, so he won’t miss the All-Star Game. France’s injury would have opened a first base spot and Rizzo is as deserving as anyone. Rizzo, Jose Abreu, Trey Mancini, and I guess Ji-Man Choi. Pick a name out of a hat and you’ll have a worthy first baseman behind Vlad Jr. at the All-Star Game.

Wednesday night, as he was mowing through an admittedly weak Pirates lineup, was the first time I thought Severino might be an All-Star. I don’t think so, his numbers lag behind other deserving pitchers, but a 3.11 ERA with 94 strikeouts in 84 innings is never going to look out of place in the Midsummer Classic. Severino’s best hope is being an injury/workload replacement. The fact it’s not unreasonable to think of him as an All-Star after the last few years is pretty great.

The larger point is LeMahieu, Torres, Rizzo, and Severino will likely need other players to bow out due to injury and/or cowardice to make the All-Star Game. I guess Stanton falls into this category too. Feels like Giancarlo either gets voted in as a starter, or he stays home. It’s fine. The Yankees will have enough representatives. Don’t need half the team there.

On their way out: Jose Trevino and Jameson Taillon. Trevino has been in a slump the last two weeks or so, dragging his season line down to .250/.300/.432 (108 wRC+), albeit with best in baseball defensive stats. Jonah Heim (124 wRC+) and Christian Vazquez (111 wRC+) have better offensive numbers. I’m not sure when the player vote took place, but I assume it wasn’t this week. Trevino might’ve been voted in before this slump. If not, I think he’ll get stuck on the outside looking in. Would be a bummer.

Taillon’s last six starts have been rough and he’s gone from having great numbers to merely very good numbers. If the All-Star Game were in mid June instead of mid July, Taillon would have had a really good chance to be selected. Alas, it is not, and these last few times out likely ended his shot at an All-Star Game nod. Also, how many pitchers can one team send? The Yankees have too many other pitchers who are more deserving.

My official All-Star Game prediction is Cole, Cortes, and Holmes join Judge at Dodger Stadium. King and everyone else gets stuck on the outside looking in. I’m not sure Nestor will be on the initial roster, but I think he’ll be high enough in the player voting to get a replacement spot when someone(s) inevitably has to back out for whatever reason.

Still no Home Run Derby announcements

Last year MLB did not announce the eight Home Run Derby participants until five days before the event, and I guess they’re doing the same thing this year. All we know right now is Judge will not do it (again). Stanton has said in the past he probably won’t do it again. That leaves Rizzo and Torres as the Yankees’ only real Home Run Derby candidates, right? MLB would have to be pretty desperate to come calling for Josh Donaldson or Joey Gallo (or Matt Carpenter). So, in all likelihood, there will be no Yankees in the Home Run Derby again. Judge and Gary Sanchez did it in 2017 and no Yankees have done it since.

3. Yankees sign Rodriguez. About a year ago righty Richard Rodriguez was one of the most sought after relievers at the trade deadline. He went from minor league free agent to high leverage reliever with the Pirates, then MLB cracked down on foreign substances last summer, and Rodriguez went back to pitching like a minor league free agent. His decline was drastic.

The Pirates were still able to trade Rodriguez at the deadline, though the return was meager, and Rodriguez never became a factor with the Braves. They left him off their postseason roster in all three rounds and non-tendered him after the season. Rodriguez got hit with an 80-game performance-enhancing drug suspension in April, and now that it's been 80 games*, the Yankees inked him to a minor league deal, according to Chris Hilburn-Trenkle.

"We signed him a few weeks ago," Brian Cashman told Brendan Kuty. "He’s served his suspension. There’s no restrictions. He’s down in Tampa currently knocking some rust out. Then he’ll obviously join an affiliate and get it going and try to put himself into position help and be a consideration sometime."

* I was under the impression the suspension didn’t begin until Rodriguez was put on a 40-man roster, but apparently not. Cashman confirmed it has been served.

Rodriguez, now 32, is unlike most pitchers the Yankees are hoarding. He’s not a sinker guy. He’s a traditional mid-90s four-seamer/low-80s slider reliever, though I suppose the Yankees could try to teach him a sinker. Here are Rodriguez’s numbers last season:

A 12.2% strikeout rate in 36 innings? In the year 2021? Maybe the sticky stuff really is a magic pill that makes you great. And when you think about it, Rodriguez is exactly the kinda guy who would benefit from a performance-enhancer (sticky stuff is the definition of a performance-enhancer). He was a 28-year-old minor league free agent trying to stay in the big leagues. Try it and possibly stay in the show, or don’t and likely top out as a Quad-A guy. What would you do?

There is not a doubt in my mind players still use foreign substances. The hand checks are incredibly half-assed and only two players have gotten busted (Hector Santiago and random Yankee Caleb Smith), and none this year. Am I supposed to believe not a single fringe roster guy is using sticky stuff to hang around and collect big league paychecks? Come on. Foreign substances are still being used and I hate to break it to you, but you’re naive if you think the Yankees are above board.

Anyway, Rodriguez was an effective big leaguer not that long ago and the Yankees are taking a shot to see whether they can get him back on track, similar to the Shane Greene signing a few weeks ago. And yeah, maybe that means teaching him to use sticky stuff in a way that avoids detection. I am unwilling to give teams and pitchers the benefit of the doubt. Point is, it’s a low risk minor league deal. If it works out, great. If not, who cares?

Also, there is a “we need some bodies in Triple-A” component to this. Chad Green is hurt, Jonathan Loaisiga is hurt, Ron Marinaccio is hurt, Luis Gil and Deivi Garcia are hurt, and Manny Banuelos has been traded. The pitching depth has taken a hit the last few weeks and the Yankees need people to fill those innings, including at Triple-A. Rodriguez will help do that.

Rodriguez has yet to appear in a game and he’s on the rookie Florida Complex League roster. He was unsigned from November through last week, so it’s been a while since he’s faced hitters (real hitters trying to make a living). A few rookie ball tune up appearances before heading to Scranton seems likely. So, another bullpen flier. We’ll see whether the organization’s pitching people can turn Rodriguez into a viable big league option.

"Throws an invisiball. Even with all this data and stuff, it doesn’t explain why he’s been so good," Clay Holmes, Rodriguez's former bullpen-mate with the Pirates, told Kuty. "I’ve always been interested in him for that reason. Just a great guy to play with, a great guy to be in the bullpen with. I think his mentality was always something that a lot of guys admired. I’m excited for him to get back into the game and get back to where he was."

4. 2022 draft prospect: VCU 1B/3B Tyler Locklear. The 2022 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 25 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

Locklear has baseball bloodlines. His father played in college and his uncle played five seasons in the minors plus two more in independent ball. Locklear was one of the best hitters in the country with the Rams, authoring a .402/.542/.799 (206 wRC+) line with 20 homers and way more walks (15.9%) than strikeouts (8.5%) in 62 games this spring. Here are his current draft rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 113
• FanGraphs: Not ranked in top 96
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): Not ranked in top 100
• MLB.com: No. 98

Against top competition in the wood bat Cape Cod League last summer, Locklear performed well enough but had some weaknesses exposed, hitting .256/.333/.504 with nine homers and 22.7% strikeouts against only 4.3% walks in 34 games. Here’s video and here’s a piece of MLB.com’s free scouting report:

Locklear’s carrying tool, obviously, is his raw power from the right side of the plate, which is better than plus. He’s shown he can use it in his mid-Major conference, and he’s strong enough to hit the ball out with wood in his hands as well. He makes a lot of contact at this level and has walked more than he’s struck out in his college career, though his strikeout rate did climb a little on the Cape. He’s much more strength over bat speed, though, and scouts are worried that his stiff swing will keep him from barreling up the baseball consistently against better pitching.

It's Locklear's bat that will have to carry him to the big leagues, however. While he plays third at VCU and has above-average arm strength, he’s likely going to have to play first at the next level. The right-right profile is tougher there, though analytics fans do like his exit velocities and launch angles quite a bit.

For what it’s worth, Baseball America (subs. req’d) says Locklear has “controlled the zone well with VCU and should be a TrackMan darling with loud average and top-end exit velocities.” He had several 110+ mph batted balls this spring and ranked among the “top 5-10 guys in the NCAA for exit velocity” throughout his college career, VCU head coach Shawn Stiffler told Andy Lohman.

I did not profile Locklear at random or just because he’s an exit velocity guy. Keith Law (subs. req’d) recently said he has “heard from multiple sources that (the Yankees) scouted him very heavily down the stretch,” so yeah, there’s some level of interest. The rankings say no to the first round, but in the analytics model era, players are drafted earlier than the public rankings would lead you to believe more than ever. Teams really lean into the underlying data, Yankees included.

The Yankees have gone for the “great stats and exit velocity college guy” the last few years, but the difference between Locklear and Austin Wells and Trey Sweeney is handedness (lefties are at the platoon advantage more often) and defense. Wells and Sweeney came with questions in the field, no doubt, but they play up the middle positions. Locklear’s already on a corner.

Locklear’s profile, the right-right exit velocity guy with questionable defense and hit tool concerns, is very risky, but every once in a while one of these dudes turns into Pete Alonso. In my amateur opinion, taking Locklear at No. 25 would be aggressive given some of the other college hitters likely to be on the board. No. 61 (second round) or even No. 100 (third round) would be a more sensible spot (for what it’s worth, Alonso was the No. 64 pick).

5. Rapid fire thoughts. The midseason ZiPS projected standings update was released earlier this week. Here’s the updated look at the AL East:

The Yankees went 58-23 (.716) in their first 81 games and ZiPS projects them as a 45-36 (.556) team in the final 81 games, which is a 90-win pace. ZiPS guru Dan Szymborski says the system doesn’t expect the Yankees to continue getting this many starts from their top five starters (77 starts in the first 81 games!) and yeah, that’s fair. Also, ZiPS doesn’t make any trade deadline assumptions, so that’s the projection for the current roster. Projections aren’t everything, just something fun to look at, so there they are … C Austin Wells, my No. 8 prospect, was indeed moved up to Double-A Somerset earlier this week. I figured that would happen once C Josh Breaux was bumped up to Triple-A Scranton (somewhat undeservedly based on the stats). With Wells and SS Anthony Volpe in Somerset, the case can be made the Yankees’ two best hitting prospects are now on the same team. That’s fun … Hal Steinbrenner spoke for the first time this season the other day and his update on Aaron Judge extension talks was a non-update. "No matter what happens during the season, we're not going to give any updates. We're just not going to do it. I mean, I completely agree with Aaron that in no way, shape, or form can this be a distraction,” Steinbrenner told Bryan Hoch. Know what would prevent this from becoming a distraction? Signing Judge to an extension. Everyone will stop asking about one after that. An extension will happen after the season, I think. Probably … And finally, the Athletics announced Frankie Montas received a cortisone shot and will not make his next start. The trade candidate exited his start last weekend with a shoulder issue after one inning. Montas is not going on the injured list but the A’s haven’t said when he’ll pitch next. The Yankees have already been connected to Montas. They’re gonna want to see him healthy and on the mound before pulling the trigger on a trade, methinks.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Mark asks: Hey Mike, given the Yankees' historic start this year, is there any chance Boone has gotten smarter? Like you, I was appalled when the Yanks re-signed him. But now he's looking like the second coming of Joe Torre, or maybe Casey Stengel. Does he deserve any credit at all, or is he just along for the ride?

Well, Aaron Boone started Matt Carpenter against the lefty and Josh Donaldson against the righty in the two doubleheader games in Cleveland last weekend, so let’s maybe hold off on saying he’s gotten smarter. And how about letting Jameson Taillon face Jack Suwinski and Dan Vogelbach in the sixth inning the other night even though they’d both taken him deep earlier in the game, and Lucas Luetge was ready for the left-on-left matchup?

In terms of on-field strategy, Boone seems like the exact same manager he was the previous four seasons. He goes batter-to-batter with his starter way too often, he designates a closer and uses him in traditional closer situations only (which is a bummer because Clay Holmes is too good to marry to a specific inning), and there are times he seems to get caught off guard with a pitching change or pinch-hitter (like when Luetge didn’t have enough time to warm up in that Rays game a few weeks ago, leading to the long delay over mound visits).

We can’t really speak to Boone as a clubhouse manager, but the Yankees have baseball’s best record, so whatever he’s doing in there must be working. Of course he deserves credit for the season the Yankees are having. Is he a changed manager? Or is he just benefiting from an incredible rotation, Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu bouncing back, and Aaron Judge getting so many big hits the first three months? I feel like Boone is the same manager he’s always been.

Dan asks: As everyone has said, this Yankees has the potential to be historic. With the team winning at a special clip, we’re hoping to have an exciting September/October. I know the Yankees came back against the Astros in the four-game series but besides that they were dominated. Couple in the random single game in Houston and the Yankees have not fared well against them so far. Since playing the Red Sox very early on in the season, they, if not for the special season the Yankees are having, would probably be in first place. This upcoming few weeks where the Yankees play in Boston and then the Sox come to New York will be telling. The Mets have come back to earth recently but are getting healthy and will be getting two stud pitchers back. Those three teams I previously mentioned truly scare me about even day dreaming of a winning October postpone. If you had to handicap which teams are the Yankees greatest threats who would they be and why?

I think the teams that are the greatest threats and the teams that scare me the most are different thing. There’s overlap, but the lists aren’t exactly the same. I’d say the Astros scare me the most. They can match the Yankees pitching (I refer you to the five games they recently played) and the top 5-6 spots in their lineup can really bang. They’d scare me most in a short postseason series.

To me, the greatest threat to the Yankees is the Red Sox because, even after Thursday night, they still have 15 head-to-head games remaining. Even with the 15-game deficit, the Red Sox control their own destiny in the AL East! Win those final 15 head-to-head games against the Yankees and match them in non-head-to-head games, and the Red Sox win the division (they’d be tied and Boston would hold the tiebreaker because they’d win the season series). That’s very unlikely obviously, but it is technically possible.

Fall out of first place in the AL East and you have to play the Wild Card Series, and when you have to go through an extra postseason round, your World Series odds dip. The Yankees built this big AL East lead in the first 81 games and it can disappear just as easily in the last 81 games. The Mets had a 10.5-game lead on June 1st. It was down to 2.5 games Thursday. Don’t take this for granted.

The Blue Jays are dealing with several pitching injuries and that makes them less formidable, plus the Yankees only play them seven more times. Toronto needs help to catch the Yankees. The Red Sox can, in theory, catch the Yankees themselves. The Yankees play the Astros two more times and the Mets four times, and they don’t share a division. That isn’t to say those games are meaningless. They’re just not as meaningful as games within the AL East.

In a short postseason series, I have no interest in facing the Astros or the Mets with a healthy Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, but the Yankees might not have to face them at all. The postseason could go something like Wild Card Series bye, Blue Jays in the ALDS, Twins in the ALCS, and Brewers in the World Series. No Astros or Mets to worry about there.

The Yankees have to face the Red Sox 15 more times though, and even if Boston doesn’t catch the Yankees for the AL East lead, they can make them sweat and work harder than they’d like to clinch the division (like they made them sweat after the 5-0 lead Thursday). To me, the Astros and Mets (and Dodgers) are the most dangerous possible matchups in October. The Red Sox are more likely to be a headache because they still have so many head-to-head games remaining, if that makes sense.

Bob asks: I have no expectations that Cashman will pull off a major trade and will instead look to upgrade incrementally wherever possible. What would you think about Anthony Santander of Baltimore? He is a switch hitter with power who plays the corner outfield positions. I think he would be an upgrade over Joey Gallo. Keeping in mind MTPS, would an offer of Florial, Randy Vasquez and another one or two players who are Rule 5 eligible after the season be enough?

All those home runs Santander hit against the Yankees earlier this season (five in 12 games) made me think he’s having a better season than he actually is. Santander hasn’t been bad, but .230/.323/.425 (112 wRC+) is good but not great for a middling defensive corner outfielder (the average corner outfielder is hitting .243/.314/.400 and 102 wRC+ this year). I would’ve guessed he was in the 120-130 wRC+ range. Huh.

Santander is only 27 and he has useful skills. He’s a switch-hitter who has been above-average against both righties and lefties (but is better against lefties, the short end of the platoon), and his strikeout (19.7%) and swinging strike (9.0%) rates are comfortably better than average. Santander has hard-hit ability too. This isn’t great, but it is serviceable for, say, a No. 6 or 7 hitter:

Santander is under team control through 2024 and the Orioles, while improved this season, are said to be open to trading him. They have decent enough outfield depth and could use Santander as a chip to get pitching or infield help. The Zack Britton trade showed an intradivision trade is doable, though a rental reliever and 2.5 years of a starting outfielder are very different things.

One thing I must note is Santander is apparently not vaccinated. He went on the restricted list when the Orioles visited Toronto last month. Santander could be vaccinated now or planning to get vaccinated in the near future, but as far as we know, he’s not vaccinated, and that means he can’t play road games against a division rival for the foreseeable future.

The Yankees only have one more series in Toronto this year and it’s the third to last series of the season, when they should have everything clinched or be close to clinching. Not having Santander that series wouldn’t be the end of the world. What if the Yankees and Blue Jays meet in the postseason though? Gonna go to Toronto without a starting position player for those games?

The vaccination thing is not a complete deal breaker – there’s always a small chance the Orioles say we’ll give you Santander for your 97th best prospect, in which case you do it and figure it out later – but it is a pretty significant drawback. The Yankees aren't just trying to get to the postseason. They will be trading for players so they can help them win the World Series, and being available for all postseason games is part of that.

Santander is a solid corner outfielder and switch-hitter who would be an upgrade over the current version of Joey Gallo, and also settle the outfield picture long-term. Making a trade within the division is always tricky, and the vaccination thing is a complicating factor. The best ability is availability and as far as we know Santander won’t be available for potentially important games in Toronto. Because of that, I think the Yankees have to look elsewhere for a Gallo replacement.

Philip asks: The Yankee radio broadcasters (perhaps citing a YES graphic) mentioned a stat to the effect that Aaron Judge has had far more balls out of the strike zone called strikes against him than any other player this year, and over the last 6 seasons. Can you post the relevant stats? Is there a chance of correcting this in future, given the data, or is it something Judge will always have to suffer?

The YES Network showed this graphic last Tuesday, a few pitches after Aaron Boone was ejected for arguing yet another low strike call on Judge (here’s the ejection video):

Those are just the raw totals too. Judge is first in called strikes outside the zone since 2017 even though he’s only 45th in plate appearances because of the injuries.

If you’re reading this, you know Judge has been getting hosed on low strike calls since the day he arrived in the big leagues. He’s 6-foot-7 and umpires call the bottom of his zone like he’s the size of an average player (6-foot-1 these days). Not only is it still happening six years into Judge’s career, it’s getting worse.

Here are the percent of pitches taken below the zone called strikes against Judge over the years:

• 2017: 23.6% (MLB average: 20.1%)
• 2018: 29.9% (MLB average: 19.8%)
• 2019: 24.4% (MLB average: 19.4%)
• 2020: 31.7% (MLB average: 20.6%)
• 2021: 27.2% (MLB average: 19.4%)
• 2022: 31.4% (MLB average: 19.7%)

From 2017-21, when Judge took a pitch below the zone, it was called a strike 26.4% of the time. For the average hitter, it was 19.8%. It’s a significant difference. Teams are smart. They know Judge has an unfair strike zone and they attack it. Any increase in called strikes below the zone has more to do with teams exploiting that weakness than umpires getting worse, I think.

Six years into Judge’s career, I think we have to assume Judge will have to deal with this the rest of his career, or at least until the automated strike zone arrives. I’d love to see what he could do with a fair strike zone. Think of all the 0-1 counts that become 1-0 counts, or the 1-2 counts that become 2-1 counts. Look at Judge’s career numbers:

• Judge when ahead in the count: .340/.565/.764
• Judge when behind in the count: .200/.206/.385

(For reference, the MLB average is .282/.468/.486 when the hitter is ahead in the count and .199/.207/.305 when the hitter is behind in the count.)

I’m not asking for special treatment, just a fair strike zone. This has gone on for six years though, so it seems like Judge is stuck with it. It’s too bad. You’d think MLB would want to make sure one of the game’s biggest stars could shine as bright as possible rather than be hamstrung by umps who can’t recalibrate their strike zone for a 6-foot-7 hitter.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)