June 21st, 2022: Judge, Cole, Taillon, Volpe, Prospects, Benintendi

The 50-17 start is not just one of the best starts in Yankees history, it’s one of the best starts in baseball history period. The 2022 Yankees are the 11th team to win at least 50 of their first 67 games, and they’re only the third team to do it in the Expansion Era (since 1961). Here are those other 10 teams, listed chronologically:

• 2001 Mariners: 52-15 (finished 116-46, lost ALCS)
• 1998 Yankees: 50-17 (finished 114-48, won World Series)
• 1955 Dodgers: 50-17 (finished 98-55, won World Series)
• 1939 Yankees: 51-16 (finished 106-45, won World Series)
• 1929 Phillies: 50-17 (finished 104-46, won World Series)
• 1928 Yankees: 51-16 (finished 101-53, won World Series)
• 1913 Athletics: 50-17 (finished 96-57, won World Series)
• 1912 Giants: 54-12-1 (finished 103-48-3, lost World Series)
• 1907 Cubs: 50-16-1 (finished 107-45-3, won World Series)
• 1902 Pirates: 51-15-1 (finished 103-36-3, lost World Series)

The Yankees won their 50th game on June 20th and the season started a week late because of the lockout. Last year they won their 50th game on July 21st and improved their record to 50-44. If the Yankees go into the tailspin and lose their next 14 games, they’ll be 50-31 and still on pace to win 100 games. This is an all-time special season. Enjoy it. Now for today’s post.

1. Judge’s arbitration hearing. Barring a contract agreement in the next 24 hours or so, the Yankees and Aaron Judge will have their arbitration hearing Wednesday. Judge is seeking $21M and the Yankees countered at $17M*. There’s very little chance they agree to a long-term extension before a hearing. A one-year deal to avoid a hearing? It's possible, sure, but they’re short on time.

“All parties hope (the next contract is) an extension, clearly, but it’s not anything that anyone can promise. Worst case scenario, you’re in a hearing at some point in-season,” Brian Cashman said on Opening Day, after announcing Judge rejected the team’s extension offer. “We wind up only in a hearing if we’re dragged in.”

The Yankees last went to an arbitration hearing in 2017, when they beat Dellin Betances (something tells me Randy Levine won’t rush to a microphone to badmouth Judge the way he did Betances). Before Dellin it was Chien-Ming Wang in 2008, and the Yankees beat him too. The Yankees don't go to hearings often, but when they do, they tend to win.

Arbitration hearings can be contentious – the team details the player’s shortcomings to explain why he shouldn’t be paid what he wants, and inevitably some take it personally – but they’re not necessarily relationship killers. The Yankees went to hearings with Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera (twice) back in the day, and they all lived happily ever after.

“It's good for me either way. I'm happy with the Yankees,” Rivera told Buster Olney after losing his hearing in 2000 (he received $7.25M rather than the $9.25M he was seeking). “... I'm not upset at all, and I have to concentrate on what I have to do this year.”

Based on his comments after rejecting the extension and his performance this season, Judge has no trouble separating the business side of the game from the baseball side of the game. I would be very surprised if the hearing turns into some kind of distraction, either because Judge is unhappy with the Yankees or because the entire process was a drag on him mentally.

In all likelihood the hearing will come and go, the ruling will be handed down a day or two later, and life will go on. It’ll be like it never happened. The dollars matter though. FanGraphs puts the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll at $262.2M with Judge estimated at a $19M salary (the midpoint of their filing figures). Judge wins and it’s $264.2M. The Yankees win and it’s $260.2M.

The third luxury tax tier is $270M and at that point next year’s first round pick moves back 10 spots. The Yankees treated the third threshold as a hard cap in 2019 and 2020 (before proration), and past behavior is the best indicator of future behavior. They might do it again, and if they do, Judge winning his arbitration case would take a bite out of the team’s available payroll space leading up to the trade deadline.

(Personally, I think treating $270M as a hard cap would be crazy. The Yankees are having a special, historic season. Who cares about moving next year’s first round pick back 10 spots? Get the help you need at the trade deadline without cutting corners, and go try to win a World Series. Don’t stick to some artificial payroll limit. Seasons like this don’t happen often.)

Chances are Judge’s contract for 2022 will be resolved by time Friday’s post goes live. Either the two sides will avoid a hearing with a one-year deal, or they’ll go to a hearing and the ruling will be made a day later. I don’t expect it to affect Judge’s performance at all. It could affect the way the Yankees behave at the deadline though. There’s $4M in spending room on the line.

* Just FYI, all arbitration-eligible players without a contract are paid at the team’s filing number until their case is heard and a ruling is made. If the player wins, he is then made whole. My quick math says that, if the ruling is made this week and Judge wins, the Yankees will owe him roughly $1.63M in back pay.

2. Weekend thoughts. Rough loss Sunday, huh? Easily the worst loss of the season, not that we have many to choose from. It was the first time the Yankees lost a game they were leading by at least three runs this season, and the first time they allowed 10 runs in a game. Every other team had done it at least once and 28 of the other 29 teams had done it multiple times (the Dodgers have only allowed 10 runs once). Heck, 17 of the other 29 times have allowed 10 runs at least five times. Don’t make it a habit, guys. A few thoughts on the last few games.

Cole flirts with history (again)

Unless he completely lost the plate and/or was obviously gassed, I would’ve been totally cool with letting Gerrit Cole chase the no-hitter Monday night. 125-130 pitches? Sure, go for it. The Yankees have a huge division lead and one of the perks is being able to let your ace make a run at history, and then push back or even skip his next start to ensure he gets enough rest. They've earned the chance to do stuff like that.

“I thought I had good stuff. I’ve never thrown a no-hitter, so I can’t tell you what no-hit stuff looks like,” Cole joked after the game (video). “I was thinking about (the no-hitter) later but it was a tight game. High pitch count – a few of those walks hurt the pitch count a little bit – but we just kept making pretty good pitches. Had a couple innings where we had efficient outs.”

Cole threw 129 pitches in that one-hitter against the Astros last season, but that was right before the All-Star break, so he had a week to reset. The Yankees are seven games into a 20 games in 20 days stretch, so giving Cole extra rest wouldn’t have been easy, but it would’ve been doable. Clarke Schmidt and Manny Banuelos are in the bullpen and can give length. I would’ve let Cole go for the no-hitter. They’re fun and they don’t happen often. Too bad it didn’t happen.

A Yankees starter has taken a no-hitter into the seventh inning four times this season, the most in baseball. For some reason I thought Nestor Cortes did it twice, but nope, just once, so it’s four times rather than five. Here's how long the no-hit bid latest in those four games:

• Nestor Cortes: 7.1 IP vs. Rangers on May 9th
• Jameson Taillon: 7 IP vs. Angels on June 2nd (perfect game bid)
• Gerrit Cole: 6.2 IP vs. Tigers on June 3rd (perfect game bid)
• Gerrit Cole: 7 IP vs. Rays on June 20th

Annoyingly, the no-hit bid and the lead went out the window in the same inning. Cole gave up a single back up the middle, then the Rays ground balled Clay Holmes for two runs. Ground ball down the line for a double and two weak ground balls on the infield. Blah. Such crap, but when you get as many ground balls and as much weak contact as Holmes, that’ll happen.

"Probably just one pitch there to (Francisco) Mejia I wish I could have back (on the double). Just a couple little knocks that just found a way to either get the right guy in or get a hit," Holmes said after the game (video). "Couple unlucky bounces but they did a good job of putting the bat on the ball when they needed to."

The first run was charged to Cole and the second to Holmes. It was the first run Holmes has allowed since Opening Day, and his franchise record scoreless streak came to an end at 29 consecutive appearances. Mariano Rivera (who else?) held the previous record at 28 straight appearances in 1999. Holmes was bound to give up a run eventually and, given his role, there was never going to be a good time for it. Sucks, but it is what it is.

"Just gotta take it one at a time. That's kinda my thought process here. That's what I've been doing all season," Holmes said when asked about his scoreless appearance streak ending (video). "Maybe a new streak starts, but I just take it one at time."

The 2021 Yankees not only lose that game Monday, they get walked off in a heart-breaker. You can’t convince me otherwise. That team had such bad vibes. This year Aaron Hicks (?!?) gets the big hit and Magic Wandy Peralta essentially gets five outs in the ninth for the save. I've seen the Yankees lose way too many of those games in Tropicana Field the last few years. Nice to be on the other end of it. I wanted Cole to get the no-hitter. A win and a 50-17 record is a nice consolation prize.

Judge and the new outfield alignment

Very quietly Judge exceeded his playing time in right field in center last week. He now has more starts (31 vs. 24) and innings (264 vs. 226.2) in center than right. Judge has started 18 of the last 23 games in center field and he’s played well out there. He’s the center fielder now. I didn’t think the Yankees would commit to it, but they did. Credit to them.

“I’ve always felt like I’m the center fielder,” Judge told Greg Joyce last week, adding he doesn’t feel any additional wear and tear on his body. “Even when they keep putting me in right field, I always treat everything like I’m the center fielder. But it’s good. Honestly, whatever the team needs. If this gives us the best lineup and gets the guys that we need out there every single day, I’ll play left field, I’ll play wherever they need me. It’s been fun.”

Given the year he’s having, there isn’t much more Judge can do to raise his asking price after the season, but taking over center field full-time will do the trick. Mike Trout* is the only center fielder I would feel comfortable expecting to outproduce Judge the rest of the year, and honestly, even that’s kinda dicey. They’re pretty close as it is.

* Quick aside: Trout went 6-for-20 (.300) with five home runs in a five-game series against the Mariners over the weekend and four of the five homers drove in the game-winning run. First player ever with four game-winning homers in a single series. Incredible.

Judge in center has moved Hicks over to left and the eye test tells me he’s better there than in center (the numbers agree but samples are so tiny). It has also put Joey Gallo in right and Gallo has said he’s more comfortable there. Either coincidentally or because playing right makes him more comfortable overall, Gallo’s bat has ticked up:

• as LF: .175/.288/.351 (88 wRC+) in 132 PA
• as RF: .229/.327/.458 (128 wRC+) in 55 PA

If Gallo’s bat is coming around because he’s more comfortable in right field and not because it’s just a random 2-3 week hot streak, then shifting Judge to center has improved the team defense (because Judge is a better center field than Hicks) and the offense as well. And maybe playing left has helped Hicks’ bat as well. He had the go-ahead triple Monday and here are numbers by position:

• as LF: .272/.403/.407 (145 wRC+) in 72 PA
• as CF: .221/.326/.239 (72 wRC+) in 133 PA

So the defense is better, the offense is better, and at least one player (Gallo) is more comfortable thanks to his new defensive alignment. Judge is the key to the whole thing. If he wasn’t athletic enough and good enough defensively to play center, this wouldn’t work, and the Yankees would (probably) be left looking for a bona fide center fielder at the trade deadline.

And this does change the trade deadline equation. It’s a heck of a lot easier to find a productive corner outfielder than a productive center fielder. Even with Gallo and Hicks performing better the last few weeks, I still think the Yankees need an outfield bat, and they can focus on the corner spots. A center fielder isn’t necessary. Judge has that covered. What a ballplayer he is.

Jamo against the Jays

Cool thing alert: the Blue Jays show pitch movement (horizontal and vertical break) on their big new scoreboard and Jameson Taillon said he used it Saturday to get real-time feedback on his stuff. Rather than wait until he got back to the dugout after the inning, Taillon could get a read on his pitches while still on the mound, immediately after throwing the pitch, and make adjustments.

The scoreboard data contributed to Taillon throwing a season high 29 sliders Saturday (a season high 33.0% of pitches as well), including several to get outs in big situations. Here’s what Taillon told Lindsey Adler (via Ian Harrison):

“They show the metrics here and I thought I had a pretty good amount of horizontal movement on (my slider). I saw that early. I was around the zone with it and sequencing it well so I went to that in big spots. The horizontal was definitely up from previous starts so I saw that and just kind of trusted it … I like to look and if I see something that's a little off, I kind of know how to fix some little things on the fly.”

Taillon’s average slider horizontal movement Saturday was his third highest in a start this year, and his highest since the last time he faced the Blue Jays, on May 11th at Yankee Stadium. His average slider horizontal movement by start this year:

I know some folks on the Blue Jays corner of the internet believe the team puts pitch movement data on the scoreboard so their pitchers can use it like Taillon did, so if Taillon turned it around on them, neat! Just a smart and resourceful pitcher being smart and resourceful. (If I were the Blue Jays, I'd totally put fake data on the scoreboard for opposing pitchers after hearing Taillon say this.)

Taillon has a 2.70 ERA (3.02 FIP) in 73.1 innings this season, and his numbers against Toronto are excellent: 22 IP, 20 H, 5 R, 3 BB, 22 K, 1 HR in four starts. That’s the good stuff. Taillon has been outstanding this year. I don’t know whether it’ll work out with the numbers crunch and all that, but he deserves to go to the All-Star Game. This guy rules.

“That’d be cool,” Taillon told Joyce about possibly going to the All-Star Game. “I already booked some All-Star plans, so I don’t know if I’m really expecting it or not, but it would definitely be a cool honor.”

Miscellany

It might be time to start giving Matt Carpenter some of Josh Donaldson’s at-bats. Donaldson is hitting .235/.289/.353 since coming back from the injured list, including 7-for-40 (.175) with a 33.3% strikeout rate against righties (he is 5-for-12 with a homer against lefties). He doesn’t play the field more than two days in a row and often gets a DH day after that. Why not give that DH start to Carpenter if it comes against a righty? DH at-bats against righties is exactly why Carpenter is on the roster … I don’t want to pick on Donaldson again, but is there a reason he went for the difficult 5-3 double play on Teoscar Hernandez’s ground ball in that four-run sixth inning Sunday instead of taking the 5-4-3 double play? Here’s where everyone was when Donaldson fielded the ball:

Donaldson was coming in on the ball, so maybe the runner was in his throwing lane? Otherwise that looks like a tailor made 5-4-3 double play to get two outs with a five-run lead. Instead, he got just the one out at third and the inning spiraled from there. Also, the seventh inning supports my “I hope Aroldis Chapman can close so Holmes can be the Moment of Truth guy” position. Peralta faced Toronto’s 1-2-3-4-5 hitters – all power-hitting righties – in a one-run game, and the Yankees got burned. Peralta’s been really good overall, but that situation was screaming for Holmes to come in and lock things down (also, please stop bringing Miguel Castro into the middle of jams, give that guy clean innings whenever possible)… And finally, a Yankees shortstop hit a home run! It was Marwin Gonzalez, not Isiah Kiner-Falefa, but it still counts. The Yankees were the last team in baseball to get a home run from their shortstops (they were also the last team to get a homer from their catchers). Three positions remain homerless: Nationals second base, and Guardians left and center fields. No homers from two of the three outfield positions? That is very Cleveland baseball-y.

3. Prospect thoughts. MLB is testing a strike zone challenge system in select Low-A games this season. A human umpire calls balls and strikes and each team can challenge up to three calls per game, and the automated strike zone is used to resolve challenges. Low-A Tampa had a challenge game over the weekend and here’s video of the challenge system in action. About six seconds elapsed between the catcher signaling for a challenge and the ump relaying the final call. Very speedy. I like it. Seems like a decent middle ground between human umps and a fully automated zone, no? Anyway, here are a few thoughts on a few prospects.

Volpe’s slow start is over

It took OF Jasson Dominguez about two weeks to get his season on track and it looks like it took SS Anthony Volpe about five weeks to get going. When we last checked in on the Yankees’ No. 1 prospect last month, he was hitting .165/.286/.321 (74 wRC+). Here’s an update, the timing of which conveniently splits Volpe’s season into two almost equal halves:

• First 29 games: .165/.286/.321 (74 wRC+), 4 HR, 26.3 K%, 12.8 BB% in 133 PA
• Last 28 games: .295/.363/.491 (136 wRC+), 3 HR, 16.9 K%, 7.3 BB% in 124 PA

Now that’s the Volpe we know and love. He’s not terrorizing pitchers quite as much as he did last season when he was in Single-A because he’s not in Single-A anymore, but he’s been very good the last five weeks. More than anything, this is an example of a recently turned 21-year-old kid getting to Double-A and needing a few weeks to find himself. That’s all. Volpe’s settled in now.

“Just like anybody, if he keeps making good swing decisions and controls the zone, he’s going to have success,” Somerset manager Dan Fiorito told Randy Miller when Volpe was struggling last month. “We were talking the other day that his batting average on balls in play was .200 and his expected average was .280 (Volpe is up to a .272 BABIP). So he’s certainly ran into some tough luck. My eyes tell me that. He smoked some balls to left and right field last week, and guys just ran them down or he hit ‘em right at them. His walk rate, his miss rates, everything is above average for the league. The more traditional numbers that we look at on the scoreboard, like batting average, that’s going to come.”

Also, Volpe is 24-for-27 (89%) stealing bases this year and is on pace for 55 stolen bases. He went 33-for-42 (79%) a year ago. Volpe is tied for 19th in the minors in steals and the Yankees are emphasizing baserunning the minors. The four full season affiliates are 404-for-500 (81%) stealing bases this year. No other organization has more than 357 steals, and last year they went 646-for-819 (79%). They’ve attempted 61% of the steals in 53% of the games. This is a thing now and Volpe is at the forefront.

(Actually, speedy 2B Cooper Bowman, a prospect to know, is at the forefront. He is 26-for-29 (90%) in steals and ranks 13th in the minors in stolen bases.)

Waldichuk’s whirly

LHP Ken Waldichuk had his first rough outing the season over the weekend, allowing five runs (four earned) in 3.2 innings against the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate. He walked four and struck out two. Waldichuk allowed four earned runs in that one start after allowing five earned runs in his previous seven starts combined. He’s been great. Just a clunker over the weekend. That’s all.

Even with the two-strikeout performance Friday, Waldichuk ranks seventh in the minors with a 36.5% strikeout rate (min. 50 innings). More importantly, he’s made progress with his slider and now has the sweeper (i.e. the whirly) the Yankees are teaching everyone. He’s still working to gain consistency with it, but it’s coming along. A few examples (GIF via Lucas Apostoleris):

Waldichuk’s fastball remains an elite bat-missing pitch, and now he’s pairing it with what might become a second swing-and-miss offering. Even an average slider would help keep hitters off the fastball and make him more effective. Coming into the season, Waldichuk was a guy with a great fastball and unrefined secondaries. Now the slider is starting to look like something.

The MLB team has to be the priority given the season the Yankees are having, and Waldichuk in the bullpen will have to be a consideration at some point. Friday’s start aside, he’s dominating in Triple-A (he struck out 11 in his previous start), and he’s got at least one bat-missing pitch and now possibly a second. Putting Waldichuk in the bullpen later this year doesn’t mean you can’t put him back in the rotation next year. I don't think it’s ime yet, but the bullpen has be a on the table.

Brito’s breakout season

RHP Jhony Brito, who I dubbed a prospect to know coming into the season, is having a breakout year and is playing his way onto someone’s 40-man roster. The 24-year-old started the season with Double-A Somerset and moved up to Triple-A Scranton after Luis Gil blew out his elbow. Brito’s season: 1.97 ERA (3.59 FIP) with 20.2% strikeouts and 6.9% walks in 59.1 innings.

The strikeout and walk (and 47.9% ground ball) rates don’t jump out, though Brito is said to be an exit velocity suppression guy with analytics friendly pitch shapes. He sits mid-90s and has a very good power changeup that dives down below the zone. Here’s some video and here’s what Baseball America (subs. req’d) wrote about Brito last month:

A dedicated worker, Brito has improved his fastball, which averages around 94 mph and has touched 98 mph this year. Brito’s changeup continues to be his best secondary offering, but the Yankees have worked to install both a slider and a cutter into his repertoire. If either of those pitches comes along, he could have a chance as a back-end starter. Tabbed as having the best control in the system, Brito’s average arsenal plays a bit better than would be expected thanks to how well he commands it, as well as some intriguing analytical characteristics.

Brito was Rule 5 Draft eligible this past offseason and might have been selected had the Rule 5 Draft been held. This offseason, with Double-A and Triple-A success under his belt, I don’t think there’s much of a chance Brito will sneak through unpicked. Either the Yankees will put him on the 40-man roster, lose him for nothing, or trade him. I would bet on a trade.

Brito’s situation is similar to Janson Junk’s last season. Junk was a fringe prospect who had a breakout year and became tradeable (Junk was part of the Andrew Heaney trade). Brito is in the same boat. Probably not good enough to crack the Yankees’ 40-man, but good enough for someone else’s. Maybe the Yankees like him more than I realize and plan to keep him after the season. From where I sit, Brito looks like a good bet to be traded this summer.

The early returns on Sikkema

It’s only been six starts and he’s been on limited pitch counts, but LHP T.J. Sikkema’s return from lost 2020 (pandemic) and 2021 (lat injury) seasons is going fairly well. The wheels came off a bit in the final inning of his start over the weekend, uglifying his 3.50 ERA (4.72 FIP), but he’s got a 30.7% strikeout rate and a 13.1% swinging strike rate in High-A. That’s what I want to see.

Before the pandemic and before the injuries (he also missed this April with an elbow problem), Sikkema was a low-to-mid-90s guy who could vary the shape of his slider, and he threw from a funky low arm slot. Jeffrey Paternostro (subs. req’d) got his eyes on Sikkema last week and provided an updated scouting report (here’s some video):

A typically funky lefty, Sikkema sat low-90s, ramping up to 94 with good glove-side command of the pitch against righties. The changeup seemed a point of emphasis in this outing as he worked it in as his primary secondary. It comes out of his hand well, but there’s only fringe fade at present, and it didn’t consistently get under barrels. The breaking ball can show as a potential above-average sweeper or with a little more sliderish tilt, but I’m not entirely sure it’s more than a grip or hand position manipulation at this point. Sikkema’s slot can wander a bit even when he’s not dropping down on purpose—which he also does—and he’s had a long litany of arm issues at this point. That’s an explanation for why he’s 23 in High-A, but it’s still not ideal. This is also the kind of arm the Yankees are pretty good at maximizing, and he could move quickly if he can stay healthy.

I’m glad Sikkema is working on his changeup, but the most important thing right now is staying on the field and racking up innings after two missed seasons. It sounds like his velocity is back and he can still manipulate his slider, so in that sense, he’s still the same Sikkema the Yankees selected with the No. 38 pick in 2019, the pick they got in the Sonny Gray trade.

That’s good news because it means the injury and lost seasons didn’t take anything away from Sikkema, and it’s bad news because he’s still the same player he was three years ago. Pitchers can make big gains in a short period of time though, especially with the Yankees. I think Sikkema will find himself with Double-A Somerset before long. For now, he’s healthy and looks like the old version of himself, which is more than we could say two months ago.

Yankees sign Owings

Welcome to the RailRiders, UTIL Chris Owings. The Yankees signed the journeyman to a minor league contract over the weekend. Owings, who I once said I wanted over Didi Gregorius, hit .107/.254/.143 (27 wRC) in 27 games with the Orioles before being released earlier this month. He’s a .239/.287/.366 (69 wRC+) career hitter in nearly 2,500 big league plate appearances.

Similar to the recent Jake Bauers trade, this is a depth move for Triple-A Scranton more than a depth move for the Yankees. IF Oswaldo Cabrera has been out with a shoulder issue since May 16th and Conor Foley says Cabrera is still rehabbing in Tampa, so his return is not imminent. That leaves SS Oswald Peraza as the only true shortstop on Scranton’s roster (they’ve tried to avoid using IF Jose Peraza there). Owings addresses that need. So there you go.

Miscellany

So I guess RHP Yoendrys Gomez, my No. 21 prospect, didn’t have Tommy John surgery. I was wrong about that. He made his 2022 debut in the rookie Florida Complex League two weeks ago and has since been bumped up to High-A Hudson Valley. Gomez has struck out four in 4.2 scoreless innings so far. Whatever elbow surgery he had last August, it wasn’t Tommy John surgery. Maybe he had a bone spur removed? No idea, but Gomez is back and pitching. Good news considering he threw 128.2 innings total from 2018-21 and needs to make up for lost time … And finally, SS Roderick Arias is still MIA. The two Dominican Summer League affiliates have played 11 and 12 games, respectively, yet no Arias. It’s been a month since international scouting director Donny Rowland said Arias is dealing with a “little tweak he’s got going on,” and obviously it’s more than a “little tweak” if he’s still not playing. Sigh. Hopefully Arias, my No. 11 prospect, shows up in a box score soon. It’s impossible to get injury updates from the DSL, so that’s when we’ll know he’s healthy.

4. Scouting the Trade Market: Andrew Benintendi. Joey Gallo and Aaron Hicks have been productive in June, but both are still having below average seasons overall, and the outfield is really the only place the Yankees will be able to add a difference-maker at the trade deadline. As good as the Yankees have been this year, there are too many nights in which a third of the lineup does nothing.

Benintendi, the former Red Sox and current Royal, will be among the top names thrown around at the trade deadline. He’ll be a free agent after the season and Kansas City took a 23-42 record into last night’s West Coast game. There’s little reason for the Royals to keep him. Benintendi is having arguably the best season of his career, so his trade value is as high as it’s going to get.

(For what it’s worth, the Padres are reportedly after Benintendi already.)

Does the 27-year-old Benintendi make sense for the Yankees? Gallo and Hicks have set the bar quite low and it’s hard to think Benintendi would be worse, but the Gallo trade is a harsh reminder that even the best plans don’t always work out. Let’s break down Benintendi’s game and whether he makes sense for the Yankees.

Contract status

Let’s get the easiest stuff out of the way first. Benintendi is a free agent-to-be and he beat the Royals in arbitration last month, and is making $8.3M this year (the team filed at $7.3M). Trade for him right at the deadline, and you’re absorbing about $2.4M in salary and luxury tax hit. That is a pittance. Even if Aaron Judge wins his arbitration hearing, the Yankees will have about $5M in spending room under the $270M third luxury tax threshold. Plenty of room for Benintendi.

Injury history

A broken rib limited Benintendi to only 14 games during the shortened pandemic season, and he missed three weeks with another broken rib last year. The Royals never clarified whether he broke the same rib again, though both fractures were on the same (right) side. Benintendi missed three weeks with a banged up knee in 2016 and that’s it. He’s been healthy otherwise.

Broken ribs on the same side in back-to-back years is a heck of a coincidence, though that’s not the kind of chronic injury that would worry me. I’d worry more if he kept missing time with a sore shoulder or a nagging hamstring. Something like that. Being a two-month rental (three months counting the postseason) reduces the exposure to injury risk. Nothing too scary here.

Defense

Although he has played some center field in the past (he’s never played right in the big leagues), Benintendi is a full-time left fielder and either a good one or an average one depending on your metric of choice. Don’t you love defensive stats? Here are his last few years (ignoring 2020 because he only played 14 games):

• 2018: +12 DRS and +3 OAA
• 2019: -3 DRS and -10 OAA
• 2021: +7 DRS and +0 OAA

For what it’s worth, 2019 is an outlier. Benintendi has rated at least average in just about every other season of his career, and having watched him play enough, I buy it. He won the AL Gold Glove last year and while I’m not sure I’d call him the best left field defender in the league, I’m comfortable saying he can handle Yankee Stadium’s spacious left field.

One thing Benintendi absolutely does not do well defensively is throw. He has one of the worst outfield arms in the sport. When I wrote about Hicks’ arm last week, I noted the average top 10% throw is 88.9 mph this year. Benintendi is at 85.3 mph. It was 83.1 mph last year. Benintendi has made three throws the last two years with league average velocity. Three. Yikes.

I suppose there could be trepidation because of the rib injuries (maybe Benintendi is afraid to really cut it loose and rotate too much?), but eh, his top 10% throws have always been well below average. This 91.0 mph throw last August is his hardest throw since 2018. The guy can’t throw. He has range and takes good routes, but if you’re looking for someone to stop the other team from taking an extra base, forget it.

Baserunning

Benintendi looks like he’s fast, but he’s essentially an average runner, if not a tick below average. He hasn’t attempted a single stolen base this season (self-preservation to avoid an injury before free agency?) and last year he went 8-for-17 stealing bases (47%). A few other numbers since Opening Day 2021:

• FanGraphs baserunning: -2.2 runs
• Baseball Prospectus baserunning: +0.4 runs
• Extra-base taken rate: 42% (MLB average is 41%)
• Home-to-first time: 4.39 seconds (MLB average is 4.41 second for a lefty batter)
• Sprint speed: 27.4 feet per second (MLB average is 27.0 feet per second)

Hard to get more average than that. Just using the FanGraphs numbers, the Yankees went from the second worst baserunning team in the sport last year (-15.1 runs) to middle of the pack this year (-1.5 runs). That’s a big improvement! Benintendi wouldn’t make the Yankees worse on the bases but he’s not going to bring some dynamic baserunning element either.

Offense

Benintendi took a .295/.358/.382 (115 wRC+) line into Monday night’s game and he’s cooled off since his hot start. Just splitting his season down the middle:

• First 32 games: .316/.375/.421 (130 wRC+), 2 HR, 12.5 K%, 8.6 BB% in 128 PA
• Last 32 games: .276/.343/.346 (101 wRC+), 0 HR, 17.1 K%, 9.3 BB% in 140 PA

I thought Benintendi had 2008 Xavier Nady potential as a guy who was primed to crash in the second half because he was enjoying an outlier BABIP in the first half, but that’s not the case. Benintendi had a .347 BABIP in his first 32 games and has a .340 BABIP since. He’s just striking out more, so his batting average dipped. When Benintendi puts the ball in play, the base hits are still falling in at roughly the same rate as earlier this year.

Benintendi’s best season was his .290/.366/.465 (123 wRC+) effort in 2018, and we now know the 2018 Red Sox were sign-stealing cheaters. His other 162-game seasons: 102 wRC+ in 2017, 100 wRC+ in 2019, and 106 wRC+ in 2021. Hmmm. Based on that, I think it’s fair to say the last 32 games are closer to the real Benintendi than the first 32 games.

The Yankees are an exit velocity team and Benintendi doesn’t provide it. He’s always been an average exit velocity guy with below average barrel rates. It is worth noting the lefty swinging Benintendi changed his approach this year. He’s not pulling the ball as much and is instead serving everything to left field for singles. It crushes his power output but boosts his average.

Eno Sarris (subs. req’d) notes Alex Gordon made a similar adjustment years ago and this is the best way to hit in Kauffman Stadium, a spacious ballpark that suppresses home runs. It’s also the opposite of what you want in Yankee Stadium. You want your lefties to pull the ball in the Bronx. Benintendi does not do that, at least not this year.

Not everyone needs to fit the profile though, right? Gallo pulls the ball as much as any lefty in the game and he’s stunk as a Yankee, good June notwithstanding. A lefty whose strength is contact and using left field (the big part of Yankee Stadium) could help the lineup as well. And it’s not like Benintendi never pulls the ball. There’s a few would-be short porch jobs in here:

Hicks is not going anywhere because of his contract, so we’re talking about Benintendi replacing Gallo. There’s a lot of moving parts there – the Yankees would have to trade Gallo (hello Padres) and either put Hicks in right or move him back to center – but it’s doable. Stylistically, Gallo and Benintendi could not be any more different. Benintendi is the singles/contact guy and Gallo the all-or-nothing slugger. The defense and baserunning is a wash or close to it, I’d say.

I don't trust Gallo even a tiny bit against postseason caliber pitching. Teams shove your weaknesses down your throat in October and Gallo’s weakness is high fastballs. He has a 35.6% whiff rate on heaters (the MLB average is 20.3%) and the vast majority of those whiffs are at the top of the zone or above it. His fastball whiff heat map:

In the year 2022, any postseason pitching staff worth a damn will have hard throwers who can elevate fastballs. Benintendi has an average whiff rate against fastballs (20.4%), so he isn’t some super high contact dynamo, but he also doesn’t have a big exploitable hole in his swing. I love big ol’ dingers as much as the next guy, though I’d rather have Benintendi than Gallo.

(I must note Benintendi has been a tick below average against lefties in his career. Not so bad that he absolutely needs a platoon partner, though he’s definitely stronger against righties. Gallo’s been awful against lefties this season but has generally kept his platoon split to a minimum throughout his career.)

What will it take?

Benintendi types – rental position players who are good more than great –  are traded at the deadline every single year, so we have a good collection of deals to reference. All these are from last year’s trade deadline:

• Kris Bryant: Traded for two top 10 team prospects (Alex Canario and Caleb Kilian).
• Eduardo Escobar: Traded for two top 30 team prospects (Cooper Hummel and Alberto Ciprian)
• Starling Marte: Traded for a busted former top prospect (Jesus Luzardo).
• Anthony Rizzo: Traded for a top 10 team prospect (Kevin Alcantara) and a top 30 team prospect (Alex Vizcaino).
• Kyle Schwarber: Traded for a top 15 team prospect (Aldo Ramirez).

The Cubs paid Rizzo’s salary, the Marlins paid Marte’s salary, and Schwarber was on the injured list without a clear date for his return when he was traded, which complicates things a bit. Also, the Diamondbacks were motivated to move Escobar’s salary. I think the most relevant trade is the Bryant deal. Bryant has name value, but it’s been a few years since his MVP caliber peak.

Would you trade two top 10 prospects for Benintendi? Guess it depends which top 10 prospects we’re talking about, right? Something like Everson Pereira and Ken Waldichuk is in the same ballpark as Canario and Kilian. Ideally the Yankees would move Luis Medina in his final minor league option year instead, but it might not be possible. Pereira and Waldichuk is in the same ballpark as what the Giants gave up for Bryant.

I’d be more hesitant to trade Pereira than Waldichuk only because the Yankees are so good at developing arms. There will be another Waldichuk along soon enough, but not many position players in the system have Pereira’s upside. If we’re really talking Pereira and Waldichuk, maybe the trade could be expanded to include a Royals reliever like Josh Staumont or Collin Snider?

No one likes trading prospects, especially good prospects you’ve spent years following, but the Yankees are having a special season and owe it to themselves to do whatever they have to do to improve their World Series odds. Whether Benintendi improves those odds (or improves them enough) is up for debate, but I’d like to think the Yankees smell blood in the water and will really go for it. Don’t hold back at the deadline for money or prospect reasons, please. Capitalize on this opportunity.

More than two months into the season, I think it’s clear the Yankees need another bat, with the outfield the most obviously place to add it. I would prefer someone with more power than Benintendi, but contact and batting average is very valuable too, plus there’s something to be said for his time with the Red Sox. He’s been through the AL East wars and knows what to expect. That’s not nothing.

I like Benintendi but I don’t love him, and I would expect him to be more league average-ish than to hit .320-something like he did in April. I prefer Benintendi to Gallo (and Hicks) at this point. He would be a nice little fit in the No. 6 lineup spot, I think. Unless the Royals set a crazy high asking price, I’m in. Benintendi figures to be the best rental outfielder on the market at the deadline.

5. 2022 draft prospect: Oregon State OF Jacob Melton. The 2022 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 25 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some will be players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

Melton is one of the draft’s top risers and he’s played his way into the first round after entering the spring as a projected second or third rounder. He slashed .360/.424/.671 with 22 doubles, 17 homers, and 21 steals in 22 attempts in 63 games. Melton also had a 17.3% strikeout rate. That isn’t terrible, though it is a touch high for a first round bat. Here are his draft rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 25
• FanGraphs: Not ranked in top 96
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 25
• MLB.com: No. 54

Melton played only 39 games from 2020-21 because of the pandemic and a shoulder injury, and it wasn’t until he made adjustments to his swing this year that he broke out. That’s the long-ish way of saying Melton’s track record as an elite college bat is just this season. Here’s some video and here’s a snippet of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d):

Melton’s production is prettier than his swing, which is described as “unorthodox” and features plenty of moving parts. He starts with an open stance and features a leg kick in his load, with a long load that includes a barrel dump on the back half and an arm bar. Despite those mechanics, Melton has plenty of bat speed and the athleticism to make it work. While his bat path might not be ideal, his barrel stays in the zone for a long time and he has the strength to drive the ball with authority, with a frame that suggests more could be coming. Melton will expand the zone at times and there’s some swing and miss—particularly against breaking balls and offspeed pitches—but he has hammered fastballs, produced against 93-plus mph velocity and displayed all-fields home run power. Some scouts have given him plus raw power grades. Melton has turned in 70-grade run times from home to first and is a plus runner consistently who should be able to stick in center field, with an average throwing arm.

A few weeks back Carlos Collazo and JJ Cooper (subs. req’d) noted Melton posted “impressive exit velocities,” so he checks that box. A lefty swinger with power to all fields and great speed, as well as center field defense, is an interesting player. It should be noted Melton will turn 22 in September, making him one of the oldest college juniors in this year’s draft class.

Melton’s swing is unusual but it is effective, and the Yankees aren’t afraid of players who look a bit unorthodox (Trey Sweeney’s bat waggle, Clarke Schmidt’s robotic delivery, etc.). They’re a model-driven team and the model might not like Melton’s strikeouts, especially since he’s been older than his competition. He does fit into the late first round though, and Melton could be the best available college bat when that No. 25 pick rolls around.

6. Remembering a random Yankee: Craig Wilson. This week’s random Yankee is a request and a player who was much, much worse with the Yankees than I remembered. Here’s the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Wilson was a fairly high draft pick out of his Orange County high school, going 47th overall to the Blue Jays in the 1995 draft. The Royals selected Carlos Beltran two picks later. Wilson’s time in Toronto's farm system lasted less than two years. He went to the Pirates in a nine-player trade at the 1996 Winter Meetings in Boston. The full trade:

• Pirates receive: IF Brandon Cromer, LHP Mike Halperin, IF Abraham Nunez, RHP Jose Pett, RHP Jose Silva, C Craig Wilson
• Blue Jays receive: IF Carlos Garcia, 1B/OF Orlando Merced, LHP Dan Plesac

Three MLB players for six prospects, three of whom never reached the show (Cromer, Halperin, Pett). Plesac was the big name as a three-time All-Star closer, though he was in his mid-30s and a lefty specialist at the time. Merced was nearing free agency and the Pirates had to trade him. It was a typical seller’s trade involving a bad Pirates team.

Note that I listed Wilson as a catcher. He was a catcher at the time, but not a very good one, so much so that Baseball America (subs. req’d) said he “might be best off as a DH in the American League” in 2001, after he reached Triple-A. The Pirates had Jason Kendall behind the plate, so Wilson began to see time at first base and in the outfield as he climbed the ladder.

From 1996-2000, Wilson was a top power threat in the minors, averaging 28 home runs per 162 games. That includes 33 homers in 124 Triple-A games in 2000. The Pirates brought Wilson to the big leagues in April 2001 and he quickly became one of their best hitters. He hit .310/.390/.589 with 13 homers in 88 games in 2001, yet he didn’t get so much as a single third place NL Rookie of the Year vote because that was the Albert Pujols, Roy Oswalt, and Jimmy Rollins rookie class. 

The Pirates were very bad from 2002-05 and Wilson was their second best hitter, first behind Brian Giles, then behind Jason Bay. He slashed .263/.356/.503 from 2003-04 and slugged 29 homers in 2004. The trade rumors were already starting to surface too. Wilson was legitimately good, though there was also some “second best hitter on his team!” reputation inflation.

The 2006 Yankees were a very good team that was hit hard by injuries. Hideki Matsui broke his wrist sliding for a ball in May and Gary Sheffield had surgery on his wrist in June after playing through tendon and ligament damage the first two months. For much of the first half, the outfield was Johnny Damon flanked by rookie Melky Cabrera and late career Bernie Williams.

Wilson was on Brian Cashman’s radar for quite a while (Tyler Kepner says the Yankees were after Wilson all season, but were waiting for the price to drop) because they liked him as a righty platoon bat who could play first base and the corner outfield. It wasn’t until deadline day that they made the trade. Wilson for random Yankee Shawn Chacon, straight up.

“You just do what you’re comfortable doing,” Cashman told Kepner. “If something was comfortable earlier, I would have done it. There was nothing that was comfortable. It’s more luck than anything when you make a good deal, and I’m not saying these are going to be good deals. You just have to wait and see.”

Chacon was a man without a role. He pitched his way out of the rotation in June and the Yankees acquired the late Cory Lidle as part of the Bobby Abreu trade a few days earlier, patching up the rotation. The Pirates actually took on money in the trade (Chacon made $3.6M in 2006, Wilson $3.3M), but I guess they really wanted Chacon’s extra year of control for 2006. Whatever.

(At least one rival general manager thought the Pirates didn’t get enough for Wilson, telling Joel Sherman: “We really thought Wilson was a guy a lot of AL teams would be interested in. He is a high strikeout guy, but he can hit a fastball, damage lefty pitching, and not embarrass himself in right field or at first.”)

“He’s a weapon Joe (Torre) can utilize as he sees fit,” Cashman told Kepner. “It’s not like he can’t be an everyday player, and it’s not like he can’t be a role player. It just provides Joe with some flexibility, and there’s a lot of value there.”

Wilson, then 29, was having an okay year with the Pirates, hitting .267/.339/.478 with 13 homers in 85 games. He demolished left-handed pitching though: .307/.378/.545 with Pittsburgh in 2006 and .295/.398/.547 in his career up to that point. Wilson gave the Yankees a platoon partner for Jason Giambi and also allowed them to back off Andy Phillips, who wasn’t hitting at all.

The Yankees saw three lefty starters (Ted Lilly, Bruce Chen, Adam Loewen) in Wilson’s first four games on the roster, so he played a lot right away, and he was great! Wilson has multiple hits in five of his first 10 games as a Yankee and went 12-for-40 (.300) with two home runs and three doubles in those 10 games. He stepped right into the lineup and made an impact. (I think the first impression stuck with me and that's why I was surprised to see just how bad Wilson was as a Yankee.)

“Any time you can go out there and help the team, it’s something that makes you feel good,” Wilson told Evan Grossman after driving in two runs in a blowout win over the Blue Jays in his second game with the Yankees. “It’s exciting. It’s a pretty good team here and to come in and play games that are meaningful is a lot of fun.”

The Yankees were counting on Wilson to lengthen the lineup and he did exactly that in his first two weeks with the team. He then slipped in a long, ugly slump that saw him get buried on the bench by the end of the season. In the team’s final 46 games, Wilson went 9-for-60 (.150) with one double, two homers, and 21 strikeouts. He started only five games in September.

Wilson played so poorly that when Sheffield was activated off the injured list with 10 games to go in the regular season, the Yankees gave him a first baseman’s mitt. Sheffield started nine of the final 10 games at first base, a position he had never played before (and never played again) so the Yankees could get his bat into the lineup along with Matsui’s and Abreu’s. Wilson was suddenly a man without a role.

Sheffield’s return and Wilson’s season-ending slump – he went 10-for-45 (.222) in limited action against lefties with the Yankees, so he wasn’t even a usable platoon bat – led the Yankees to leave him off the postseason roster. They instead went with Phillips, who hit .240/.281/.394 that season, but could play second and third bases, if necessary.

"We felt Phillips gave us the defense at first base. Plus, in the event we want to use (Miguel) Cairo as a pinch-runner, we have a backup infielder who can play third, second, or first,” Torre told MLB.com. “I'm comfortable with Sheff over (at first). He's fearless. He's not afraid to make a mistake, and if he makes a mistake, it's only in trying to do the right thing, not out of trying not to make a mistake."

The 2006 ALDS loss to the Tigers was a debacle in which the Yankees scored six runs in the final three games, Alex Rodriguez hit eighth in Game 4, and Jaret Wright got the start with the season on the line because the Yankees had no one else. Wilson would not have changed the outcome (and neither would have Chacon, who didn’t clear the “better than Wright” bar).

Despite his track record as a versatile enough lefty masher, the Yankees didn’t wait long to dump Wilson after the season. He was released on Nov. 1st, four days after the World Series ended, in a 40-man roster cleanup move. The Yankees could have hung onto Wilson and tried to trade him, or kept him as an arbitration-eligible player in 2007, but nope. Released.

Wilson hit .212/.248/.365 with four homers and 34 strikeouts in 40 games (25 starts) with the Yankees. It worked out to -0.9 WAR in only 109 plate appearances. Wilson also had a 31.2% strikeout rate at a time when the MLB average was 16.8%. The guy had a 2022 strikeout rate in 2006. Wilson also went 4-for-29 (.138) with runners in scoring position. It was brutal.

It wasn’t until January that Wilson signed a minor league contract with the Braves. He started the season on their bench, went 10-for-58 (.172) with one homer and 25 strikeouts (36.2%!), then got released in May. Wilson never played in the big leagues again. He played in Triple-A with the White Sox, Mariners, and Pirates from 2007-08 before the game decided it was done with him.

I have no idea what Wilson, now 45, is up to these days, though he did make a touch over $10M during his playing career because home runs pay in arbitration. He retired as a .262/.353/.474 (115 wRC+) hitter with 99 home runs, including .282/.384/.518 (134 wRC+) against lefties. Because he was such a poor defender, it worked out to only +3.5 WAR in nearly 700 games.

7. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees offered Justin Verlander a one-year, $25M contract over the winter and last week he told Jeff Passan they were “kind of always just a step behind” in their pursuit. Verlander re-signed with the Astros (one-year, $25M with a $25M player option) and he said the Blue Jays were the runner-up. I assume the Yankees being a “step behind” the Astros and Blue Jays means they wouldn’t offer any kind of second year, but those two teams did. I get it and I’m cool with it, though Verlander is having a great season (2.30 ERA and 3.41 FIP). The Yankees having such excellent pitching this year certainly softens the blow … And finally, the 13-pitcher limit finally – finally! – kicked in Monday. We were supposed to get it in 2020, but the pandemic and the lockout kept pushing it back. Now it’s arrived. The Yankees were already carrying 13 pitchers and four bench players, so they didn’t have to make a roster move to be compliant (they did carry 14 pitchers at times earlier this year). It’s 13 pitchers and 13 pitchers only until rosters expand in September, when teams can carry up to 14 pitchers.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)