June 13th, 2022: Offense, Carpenter, Montgomery, Catchers, Hicks, Futures Game

The Yankees begin a 20 games in 20 days stretch Tuesday and it’ll be a tough one: 13 of the 20 games are against the Astros, Blue Jays, and Rays, including the first 12. If you haven’t noticed, the rest of the AL East has gotten on track the last few weeks. Here are the best records in the American League since the cherry-picked date of May 15th:

1. Yankees: 20-7
2. Red Sox: 19-9 (1.5 GB)
3. Blue Jays: 17-8 (2.0 GB)
4. Rays: 15-11 (4.5 GB)
5. Astros: 15-11 (4.5 GB)

Imagine winning 17 times in 25 games and losing two games in the standings? The Yankees have had a great first two months and they’ve built a nice cushion in the division race, but the other AL East contenders are hitting their stride. It was bound to happen eventually. Here are Tuesday morning’s thoughts Monday afternoon since it’s an off-day.

1. Weekend thoughts. Self-promotion: I was asked to write a quick thing at CBS comparing the Yankees’ start to similar starts during the Wild Card era. They’re 44-16 and the seventh team to win at least 42 of their first 60 games in a 162-game season since 1995 and You Won’t Believe How They Did It. You don’t have to read it. Just do me a solid and click the link, and leave the tab open for a few minutes. Maybe even scroll to the bottom. Thanks. Now here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

Home runs and a powerhouse offense

I must be getting soft with age because I’m starting to feel bad for opposing pitchers. Not the veterans who’ve made their money. Only the young guys trying to prove they belong. I feel bad for them. The Tigers made poor Elvin Rodriguez wear it at Yankee Stadium two weeks ago (10 runs in 4.1 innings), then the Yankees did this to the Cubs over the weekend:

• Matt Swarmer: 5 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, 6 HR
• Keegan Thompson: 0.2 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 0 K

Swarmer is the tenth pitcher in history to give up six homers in a game. He’s a 28-year-old rookie and a former 19th round pick who spent six years in the minors before getting a taste of the show, and in his third career game, the Yankees did that to him. I’m guessing Swarmer would rather give up six homers in the Bronx than ride buses in Triple-A, but still. Poor guy.

"It's a lot to take in from today. Definitely a good lineup, the best I've ever faced. Still have to make my pitches,” Swarmer told Jesse Rogers. “... They have a lot of power, for sure. Have to try and limit the damage next time when things start hitting the fan. Try to make them feel uncomfortable up there. They seemed to see the ball well.”

Aaron Judge hit two home runs Saturday and has 24 on the year*. At the time no other player had more than 17 homers (Pete Alonso hit his 18th Sunday night), and, according to STATS, the last player with a seven-homer lead in the home run race on June 11th was Babe Ruth in 1928. He had a nine-homer lead over Lou Gehrig. That seems impossible, but it’s true.

* Judge has 24 home runs. The Tigers have 30 homers. Judge pulling a Ruth and out-homering an entire team would be an all-time amazing thing. I want this to happen so badly even though I know it (probably) won’t.

Sunday’s 18-run outburst was the Yankees’ highest scoring game since they dropped 20 on the Blue Jays on Sept. 15th, 2020. It was their highest scoring game with fans in the stands since they scored 20 against the Braves on Aug. 30th, 2015. It was their highest scoring game with fans in the stands at Yankee Stadium since the three grand slam game on Aug. 25th, 2011.

“This offense is scary when they’re rolling like that,” Jameson Taillon told Greg Joyce about the 18-run afternoon, stating the obvious. “These are the Bronx Bombers.”

The offense was the best version of itself Sunday. The Yankees hit homers, they took walks, they capitalized on defensive mistakes, and they struck out only seven times in 48 plate appearances (14.6%). Already 10 times this season the Yankees have scored 10+ runs in a game. They did it six times last year. No other team has scored 10+ runs more than eight times this season.

(Katie Sharp notes the Yankees have won two games by 13+ runs this season after doing it only two times total from 2018-21. They did it Sunday and they had that 13-0 win over the Tigers earlier this month, the game Rodriguez started.)

The Yankees are averaging 5.11 runs per game and are right behind the Dodgers (5.15) for the MLB lead. As a team, they are seventh in AVG (.250), third in OBP (.334), first in SLG (.441), and first in wRC+ (120 wRC+). They’ve done that even though Joey Gallo, Aaron Hicks, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are each sitting in the 83-91 wRC+ range.

A few weeks back I noted the Yankees were leading baseball in home run differential. It’s time to update those numbers, because the Yankees are only further separating themselves from the rest of the league:

1. Yankees: +50 (98 hit vs. 48 allowed)
2. Braves: +36 (84 hit vs. 48 allowed)
3. Phillies: +28 (78 hit vs. 50 allowed)
4. Astros: +25 (77 hit vs. 62 allowed)
5. Giants: +24 (72 hit vs. 48 allowed)

The Yankees lead baseball in homers hit and are tied with the Braves and Giants for the fewest homers allowed. On a rate basis, they’re second with 0.80 HR/9 (Atlanta is at 0.79). For a team that plays its home games in homer happy Yankee Stadium, allowing that few dingers blows my mind. All hail the power of sinkers, weak contact, and strikeouts.

The single-season record is a +116 home run differential by Ruth’s and Gehrig’s 1927 Yankees. The 2019 Twins are second at +109. The Yankees are on pace to finish at +135. Normally I’d say setting a new record is unlikely, but this seems doable? With this pitching staff and this offense? Yeah, I think so, especially since a guy like Gallo still has so much room to improve. We are officially on record dinger differential watch.

Anyway, I’m not sure where I’m going with all this. The offense had an incredible game Sunday and a great weekend overall even though they couldn’t seem to buy a clutch hit Friday night. The offense isn’t perfect, the Yankees need more from Gallo and Hicks and Kiner-Falefa, but what they have is pretty good, starting with Judge and his massive league lead in homers.

(That home run Giancarlo Stanton hit Saturday was one of those homers only Stanton can hit (video). It was 119.8 mph off the bat, the hardest hit ball in baseball this season. How that ball didn’t disintegrate on contact, I do not know.)

Carpenter’s lefty thump

Gleyber Torres was under the weather and had to be scratched from Sunday’s lineup. Matt Carpenter replaced him and posted a casual 3-for-4 with two homers and a double afternoon. He drove in a career high tying seven runs in his first start in nine days. “I put him in the garage for a week and pulled him out for a spin,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch.

Carpenter is 8-for-24 (.333) with six homers, a double, and a bunt single in pinstripes. Here is the updated spray chart of his eight hits:

I’m disappointed Carpenter pulled that double to right field in the seventh inning Sunday. He couldn’t leave the bat on his shoulder to protect the “pulled homers* and a bunt single only” spray chart? Come on man. It was 15-4 at the time! No one wouldn’t cared if you struck out. Alas.

“I’ve played the game long enough to know what it feels like and looks like when I’m right. This is certainly that. I can have competitive at-bats every time I get in there,” Carpenter told Hoch after the game. “It got away from me the last few years, but I was able to put in a lot of good work. A lot of people helped me get it back.”

* James Smyth notes that, according to Statcast, all six of Carpenter’s home runs would have been a homer in at least 25 other parks, and four of the six would have been out in all 30 parks. He’s yet to hit a short porch cheapie, which makes this even more impressive.

Yankees lefties have hit 19 homers in Yankee Stadium this season. They hit 26 all of last year, and they have an outside chance to match that total before the homestand ends Thursday. Yankees lefties hit only 11 home runs in Yankee Stadium during the 60-game season in 2020, which is the same number of games the Yankees have played this year. Hooray for lefty pop.

Carpenter being plucked off the scrap heap and doing this is the kinda unexpected contribution just about every championship team gets. There are a lot of really good teams every year, and the team that wins the title is usually the team that a) stays healthiest, and b) has players come out of nowhere to make a difference. Carpenter has come out of nowhere to make a difference.

Also, Carpenter played third base Sunday! It was his first time playing the field as a Yankee and he made one really nice play (video). He also made one routine play look a bit awkward (video). That over the top throwing motion is unusual. The Yankees wanted to rest Josh Donaldson and Torres had to be scratched, so Carpenter was at third. I’m not sure the Yankees want to put him in the field much, but his bat may force a conversation about giving him more playing time.

Even with the defensive limitations, Carpenter has been a great fit as a role player. He has the lefty pop that plays in Yankee Stadium, he works tough at-bats, he’s a veteran who’s fit well in the clubhouse, and he accepts his role. Carpenter’s not griping about playing time or anything like that. Sunday showed he can stay ready despite sitting for a long stretch and still produce when called upon. Carpenter looks like the high-end depth piece often found on a championship club’s bench.

“It’s so much fun watching this group compete,” Carpenter told Hoch. “I just love coming to the ballpark every day, coming into the clubhouse with this group of guys.”

Montgomery’s cutter returns

Because of Gerrit Cole’s short start Thursday and Friday’s 13-inning game, the Yankees were really short in the bullpen Saturday, and Jordan Montgomery did hero’s work with seven shutout innings. He struck out five and allowed five singles, and didn’t allow a runner to reach third base. Montgomery owns a 2.70 ERA (3.45 FIP) in 12 starts and 66.2 innings this season.

“It was going to be a struggle if we didn’t get a lot of length out of him. That was just what the doctor ordered,” Boone told Ryan Dunleavy following the game. “It’s not something you want to lay him on early or tell him about. Just go pitch, but yeah, I think he had a good idea.”

After the game Jose Trevino mentioned Montgomery has brought his cutter back, and honestly, I didn’t even realize he put it on the shelf. The cutter was Montgomery's fifth pitch from 2020-21, though he still threw it close to 10% of the time. This season he didn’t throw a single cutter in his first eight starts. In the last four, the cutter is in the 10% to 20% range.

“He just started throwing it a couple weeks ago but it’s starting to pick up and it looks really good,” Trevino told Dunleavy. “You can tell he’s getting the feel for it. He’s doing what he wants with it.”

Montgomery throws the cutter exclusively to righties, and similar to Nestor Cortes (and also CC Sabathia at the end of his career), he uses it to crowd them inside. The cutter keeps righties from leaning out over the plate, and sets up the sinker and changeup away. When Montgomery has missed with the cutter, he’s missed in off the plate more than middle-middle:

The Cubs had eight righties in the lineup Saturday and, in these last four starts with the cutter, Montgomery has held righties to a .190/.220/.304 (.231 wOBA) line. In his first eight starts, it was .256/.315/.398 (.315 wOBA). It’s too small a sample to draw any conclusions, though you can see why Montgomery and the Yankees felt it was time to do something else against righties.

For as much as we talk about high velocity sinkers, the Yankees are also emphasizing the cutter. Cortes and Luis Severino started using one last year, and Cole and Taillon added one this year. The cutter isn’t a new pitch for Montgomery, but he stopped throwing it for whatever reason, and now he brought it back specifically to combat righties. An in-season adjustment that appears to be working as intended through four starts.

Catcher workload

There were some notable developments in the 50/50 catcher split this weekend. And it is a 50/50 split. Ignoring Kyle Higashioka’s three-day stint on the COVID list two weeks ago, he and Trevino have each started 19 of the last 38 games. Neither guy has started back-to-back days* since Trevino started May 15th in Chicago and May 16th in Baltimore.

* There have been a few instances of the same catcher starting back-to-back games around an off-day, but not back-to-back days.

Three things happened this weekend. First, Trevino pinch-hit for Higashioka in the 13th inning Friday, and provided the walk-off hit. Higashioka went 0-for-5 with two strikeouts earlier in the game, including flying out with the automatic runner on second in the 11th. Pinch-hitting Trevino was the first time this year Boone acknowledged Higashioka isn’t cutting it.

“Credit to (Trevino), he was ready to roll all night,” Boone told Joyce and Hoch. “... Just a great job of being ready. A really good at-bat, got a pitch he could handle, and just stuck it.”

Second, Trevino was in Sunday’s original starting lineup. He was scratched with back tightness, but he was in the original lineup. It would have been the first time either of the catchers started back-to-back days since mid May. It was a day game after a night game too. Pinch-hitting Trevino for Higashioka on Friday, then starting Trevino the next two days when you haven’t started a catcher on back-to-back days in a month feels notable.

And third, Higashioka finally hit a home run Sunday! Two, actually, though the second was on a 35.1 mph (!) lob from a position player (video), which doesn’t really count. The first homer came against a real pitcher though. Even with the two homers, Higashioka is sitting on a .172/.225/.280 (44 wRC+) line, which is awful. But at least now he showed some signs of life, you know?

“I’ve been grinding all year, trying to look for that adjustment to get back to where I know I can be,” Higashioka told Joyce after the game. “(Trevino) noticed something in my swing that he thought — I don’t want to get too specific — but he thought I was not really being aggressive enough with my lower half. As soon as I fixed that, that seemed to be the ticket. For some reason, it just clicked everything into place. So gotta give credit to my man Trevy.”

So three things happened this weekend. Trevino pinch-hit for Higashioka, an acknowledgement Higashioka isn’t doing the job, and then Trevino was slated to become the first Yankees catcher to start back-to-back days in about a month the next two days. And then, after Trevino was scratched Sunday, Higashioka took advantage and hit his first two homers of 2022. The playing time pendulum was swinging Trevino’s way, then Higashioka might’ve snatched it back.

It’s obvious Trevino is the better player. He rates better defensively, and even while understanding he’s not a true talent .309/.356/.505 (148 wRC+) hitter, he’s better than Higashioka. Higashioka’s only offensive tool is power. Trevino is a high contact guy (13.5% strikeouts and 7.6% swinging strikes) who has already matched his career high with five homers. Lots of players have career years at his age (29) and he may be having one now.

There are two ways to look at the 50/50 catcher split. One, it’s dumb and Trevino should play more because he’s the better player. And two, it’s kept Trevino productive and should continue. He’s a career backup, and when you make a backup catcher a starter, they tend to get exposed (I refer you to every time Higashioka’s playing time has increased). The 50/50 split might be just the right amount of Trevino. More and he’ll get exposed, less and he’ll lose his rhythm.

My guess is the pinch-hit Friday and the scheduled start Sunday was not a sign the Yankees are ready to commit to Trevino as their starting catcher. I think it was an acknowledgement Higashioka is struggling and Trevino is doing well, and they were going to ride out his hot streak this weekend. I think the Yankees like Higashioka too much to fully cut bait. They think he’s better than he’s been and will give him every chance to prove them right. I see Trevino's usage this weekend as a little blip, not the new normal.

And now that Higashioka rewarded the team’s faith with those two homers, I bet the 50/50 split will continue for the foreseeable future. He justified the decision to stick with him and the Yankees have shown they want to stick with him. The Yankees are on a 119-win pace and the catching situation feels like a “if it’s not broke, don’t fix it” thing. Now that Higashioka showed signs of life, I think he earned a reprieve, and the 50/50 split will continue no matter how well Trevino plays.

“(Trevino) certainly has earned being in there,” Boone told Joyce on Saturday. “But love what we have going on with both guys. Obviously want to get Higgy going a little bit at the plate, but Jose’s certainly earning more and more opportunities.”

Miscellany

Here’s a thing that’s kinda sorta flying under the radar: the Yankees have won their last 11 home games. It is tied for the longest single-season home winning streak at the new Yankee Stadium. They had an 11-game home winning streak from April 21st to May 9th in 2018 (and a 12-gamer spanning the end of 2019 and the start of 2020). The longest home winning streak in Yankees history is an 18-gamer in 1942. That’s (probably) not happening, but sweep the Rays this week and the Yankees will tie the sixth longest home winning streak in franchise history. Would be cool … The Yankees have shifted their rotation around twice in the last two weeks to give Cortes an extra day of rest. Cortes and Taillon started the doubleheader games against the Angels on June 2nd and that meant one would get an extra day before his next start, and it was Cortes. Then the Yankees used Monday’s off-day this week to start Cole on normal rest Tuesday rather than Nestor, who gets an extra day and goes Wednesday instead. Nothing that requires shuffling the rotation around a great deal, but there’s definitely a concerted effort to give Cortes a little extra rest right now. He’s up to 64.1 innings this year and has never thrown more than 115 innings in a season … And finally, the Yankees are now a perfect 12-0 all-time against the Cubs at any version of Yankee Stadium. They won Games 1 and 2 of the 1932 World Series in the Bronx, Games 3 of 4 of the 1938 World Series, and swept interleague series in 2005 (three games), 2014 (two games), and now 2022 (three games). The Yankees have outscored the Cubs 86-28 in the 12 games. I want the Yankees to get transplanted into the AL Central or NL Central one of these years just to see what happens. They might win 125.

2. On Hicks’ arm. Aaron Hicks threw Gio Urshela out at the plate last week in Minnesota (video), and it was the strongest throw we’ve seen Hicks make in quite a while. His arm was a cannon a few years back, a true 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale, then he had Tommy John surgery and it hasn’t been the same since. Or at least it hasn’t looked the same according to the eye test.

A few weeks back I answered a mailbag question about Hicks’ declining arm and noted Statcast data on outfield throws is not public. It exists, but MLB doesn’t give it to us. Well, I got my hands on some behind the curtain Statcast data, including outfield throws. The throw to get Urshela was 97.0 mph. It was Hicks’ strongest throw since 2019, before he had his elbow rebuilt.

Statcast records every throw, even those little lobs back into the infield, so average outfield throw velocity is useless. Instead we’ll look at the top 10% of throws. Those we can assume are competitive throws made with intent, and tell us about the player’s true arm strength. Here are the top 10% numbers on Hicks during his time with the Yankees:

• 2017: 95.7 mph
• 2018: 94.0 mph
• 2019: 93.5 mph (had Tommy John surgery after the season)
• 2020: 89.1 mph
• 2021: 86.3 mph
• 2022: 88.6 mph

So yes, Hicks had a big drop in top 10% velocity immediately after Tommy John surgery (I’m inclined to ignore 2021 because he played fewer than 300 innings in the outfield before having season-ending wrist surgery). The average top 10% throw is 88.9 mph this season, so Hicks essentially has a league average arm now, and has since Tommy John surgery.

Now that we know the numbers, the question is why. Is the decline the result of Hicks’ arm not working the same way as before surgery, or is he tentative and not comfortable cutting it loose? It could be both. Here’s what Hicks told George King in Aug. 2020, when he was still in his first few games with his new elbow ligament:

“It doesn’t come out like I want it to. I’ll throw a bunch of balls and I would say 90 percent of them are coming pretty good and going exactly where I want them to go and coming out with really good [velocity] and then some it doesn’t want to cooperate with me,’’ Hicks said. “But I hear it is kind of one of those normal things recovering from Tommy John.’’

…

“I would probably say I kind of have to warm up through it. I would say it is normally my first couple of throws of getting back into the inning is where it starts,’’ Hicks said. “When I am warmed up I normally feel pretty good, but the later and later it gets during innings and stuff like that it starts … I kind of feel it gets cold, if that makes sense.’’

Outfielders (and infielders) lose velocity on their throws with age just like pitchers, but Hicks has had a significant decline in arm strength since Tommy John surgery. Tommy John surgery has a really high success rate, particularly with position players, but it’s not perfect. Hicks has not had the same arm since surgery. It’s gone from the very top of the line to merely average.

Now that Hicks is nearly three years removed from surgery, we should probably stop expecting his arm to rebound. It is what it is at this point. That 97.0 mph throw last week was his hardest since Tommy John surgery, sure, but he had a few north of 96.0 mph last year. It’s more of the same rather than new territory. Good to know Hicks still has 97.0 mph in him, I guess.

Ultimately, Hicks’ arm is not going to affect his roster status all that much. His bat and the other aspects of his defense matter more. Hicks is running a .349 OBP (second highest on the Yankees!), but at some point he has to do something other than walk. It stinks his arm isn’t the same as it was before surgery. It stinks even more that his power disappeared.

(In case you’re wondering, the best top 10% outfield arm this year is Ronald Acuna at 98.0 mph. Aaron Judge is 16th at 93.1 mph and Joey Gallo is 32nd at 91.3 mph. As a team, the Yankees are second at 90.8 mph. Acuna’s Braves are first at 90.9 mph.)

3. Futures Game candidates. The 2022 Futures Game rosters will be revealed in a few weeks. The All-Star Game is at Dodger Stadium this year and Dodgers legends Mike Scioscia and, uh, Jimmy Rollins will manage the two clubs. It’s AL vs. NL now. A few years ago MLB did away with the USA vs. World format that left too many good prospects at home (because the USA player pool is so much deeper).

Rosters are put together by MLB and Baseball America, though the teams have input. They can push for certain guys (like the Yankees did with OF Jasson Dominguez last year) and ask for others to be withheld (possibly because he might get called up). Each team typically sends 1-2 players, though sometimes the host team gets three, or a team gets three because of injury/call up replacements.

The Futures Game showcases the best prospects. It’s not necessarily an All-Star Game with the prospects having the best seasons, though there’s a lot of overlap between “best prospects” and “best performing prospects.” Who could the Yankees send to Hollywood next month? I see five candidates, though it’s really more like three candidates.

OF Jasson Dominguez

Dominguez went to the Futures Game last year, he’s having a good season (.254/.347/.420 and 123 wRC+ in 51 Low-A games), and he’s one of the most famous prospects in the minors. The outfield is always crowded, but Dominguez seems like a no-brainer. The Futures Game was made for prospects like him.

SS Oswald Peraza

Can’t see it. He’s having a poor year (.205/.283/.341 and 68 wRC+ in 48 Triple-A games) and he’s neither the best nor the most famous shortstop prospect in his own system. Maybe next year, Oswald. (I’d rather Peraza be in the big leagues than in the Futures Games next year, but let’s get those Triple-A numbers up first.)

SS Anthony Volpe

Volpe hasn’t been great this year (.224/.322/.398 and 100 wRC+ in 51 Double-A games), but he’s been better the last few weeks, and he’s still one of the 10 best prospects in the game. His top competition among American League shortstops includes Mariners SS Noelvi Marte, Blue Jays SS Orelvis Martinez, and Red Sox SS Marcelo Mayer. Mayer and Volpe are having the best seasons, statistically, though C Gabriel Moreno’s recent call up means Martinez is Toronto’s best prospect still in the minors. That may serve as a tiebreaker. For an event showcasing the game’s best prospects, yes, Volpe’s a candidate. For sure.

LHP Ken Waldichuk

RHP Hayden Wesneski is closer to MLB ready but Waldichuk is having the better season, and one of the best pitching seasons in the minors: 1.44 ERA (2.64 FIP) with the second highest strikeout rate in the minors (38.6%). Waldichuk is starting to pop up on top 100 lists too (No. 87 on MLB.com). He’s a Futures Game candidate, though I wonder whether the Yankees would hold him out just in case they need to call him up. They did that with Luis Severino in 2015 (and then called him up three weeks later).

C Austin Wells

Wells hasn’t played since taking a foul tip to the groin on May 17th, so the injury must be pretty bad. For his sake, and the sake of any potential future Wells children, I hope he gets healthy and returns soon. For now, the injury takes him out of the Futures Game mix. We can circle back and reconsider Wells if he gets back on the field soon.

There have been a few surprise Futures Game selections over the years (1B Peter O’Brien in 2014, RHP Domingo Acevedo in 2017, etc.) but it’s usually not worth getting too deep in the weeds and looking for sleepers. They tend to take the best of the best unless they’re in a bind and have to fill a specific position. Maybe OF Everson Pereira goes? Seems unlikely to me.

I think Dominguez is a lock. The Futures Game was created to show off talent like that. The second spot (if the Yankees get a second spot, it’s not guaranteed) comes down to Volpe and Waldichuk, and who gets it could come down to the roster makeup. If the AL team needs a shortstop, it’ll be Volpe. If they need an arm, then Waldichuk. I’d bet on Volpe. He’s the better and more well-known prospect, and MLB will want big name Yankees.

4. 2022 draft prospect: Vanderbilt OF Spencer Jones. The 2022 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 25 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some will be players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

Jones has been a guy long enough that I once said he has “future Yankees prospect” written all over him. He was a two-way talent and potential first rounder out of high school in 2019, but he broke his elbow that spring and had a strong commitment to Vanderbilt, so he fell to the 31st round and wound up on campus. Jones gave up pitching after the fracture, and he needed Tommy John surgery in 2020. He’s a full-time position player now.

Now healthy, the lefty swinging Jones hit .370/.460/.644 with 12 home runs and 14 steals (in 15 attempts) in 61 games this spring. His 23.5% strikeout rate is very high for a college hitter expected to go early in the draft. Last summer Jones hit .312/.424/.481 against top competition in the wood bat Cape Cod League, but with a 30.4% strikeout rate. Here are his draft rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 64
• FanGraphs: Not in top 96
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 90
• MLB.com: No. 74

For what it’s worth, Jones has popped up in the late first round in recent mock drafts, and Jim Callis says the Yankees may be his “high-water mark,” meaning the earliest he could come off the board. Jones will be among the 250 prospects participating in the draft combine later this month, so if you want to watch him on MLB Network, that’s your chance.

Here’s video (look at this seemingly effortless opposite field homer) and here’s a snippet of MLB.com’s free scouting report:

Jones has the potential to hit for average while producing solid power, but he also swings and misses frequently against non-fastballs. He generates plenty of bat speed and has impressive strength and leverage in his 6-foot-7 frame, but his size also creates a naturally long left-handed swing. He uses the opposite field almost to a fault, rarely turning on pitches, and there are concerns about whether he'll be able to handle quality fastballs on the inner half.

Very athletic for his size, Jones shows average speed out of the batter's box, is quicker once he gets going and has some basestealing ability. He covers ground in right field and has regained average arm strength. He also played some first base last year at Vanderbilt and is a solid defender there.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) says Jones has the “average and top-end exit velocities” you’d expect for a guy his size (6-foot-7 and 225 lbs.). It’s interesting they also say “model-driven teams could be lower on Jones given his strikeout rate, but old-school scouts are excited about his unique athleticism, size and power potential.” The Yankees are a model team, though I don’t know how much they weigh strikeouts vs. exit velocity, etc.

There are a few things about Jones’ approach (“uses the opposite field almost to a fault” per MLB.com) and swing (“heavy backside approach” per Baseball America (subs. req’d)) that perhaps could be tweaked, but the bottom line is will he handle non-fastballs? If not, that’s close to a fatal flaw. The power and athleticism is exciting. There’s also some things that need to be fixed. It’s been a while since the Yankees went pure boom or bust in the first round, but Jones is up their alley with the power and exit velocity.

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Brandon Laird. By request, this week’s random Yankee is a player who went on to have a long and successful (and ongoing) career overseas. Here’s the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Laird grew up in Orange County and his older brother, Gerald, played 13 years in the big leagues as a journeyman catcher. Brandon was a 27th round draft pick out of high school in 2005, but he did not sign with Cleveland, and spent two years mashing at Cypress College. The Yankees took him with their 27th round pick in 2007, and paid him a $120,000 bonus.

Right away, Laird was one of the most productive hitters in the system, hitting .273/.334/.498 with 23 home runs in 122 games with Low-A Charleston in 2008. He had his breakout season with Double-A Trenton in 2010, when he authored a .291/.355/.523 line with 23 homers in 107 games en route to being named Eastern League MVP.

After that season Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Laird the No. 10 prospect in the Yankees’ system. Here’s a piece of their scouting report:

He has good pitch recognition and feel for the barrel, which should enable him to produce for average as well as power. He has strong hands, solid bat speed and nice leverage in his swing. His aggressiveness got the best of him at Triple-A, and he needs to prove he can adjust against better pitching. Scouts used to question his glove and athletic ability, but Laird keeps answering their doubts. He has become an average defender at third, with subpar range but good hands and a strong arm. He's a below-average runner.

The Yankees added Laird to the 40-man roster after the 2010 season to keep him away from the Rule 5 Draft. He opened 2011 with Triple-A Scranton and initially struggled (.162/.194/.265 in his first 18 games), but he settled in and hit .292/.321/.453 with 17 doubles and nine homers in 72 games over the next three months. Not amazing, but not bad either.

On July 18th, 2011, random Yankee Ramiro Pena needed an appendectomy and landed on the injured list, and Laird was called up to fill the roster spot. Alex Rodriguez was out long-ish term with a torn meniscus, and the third base situation was Pena and Eduardo Nunez. Laird sat on the bench for four games before finally making his MLB debut on July 22nd.

That night the Yankees blew out the A’s (they were up 14-2 after three innings and won 17-7) and Laird pinch-hit for Derek Jeter in the seventh inning (Laird played third and Nunez shifted over to short). He drew a walk in his first plate appearance and later scored on a Nick Swisher single. An inning later Laird got his first big league hit and RBI on a ground ball single (video).

"Can't put it in words, I am still speechless, to hit for a guy like that. It's a day I will always remember," Laird told Kristie Ackert about pinch-hitting for Jeter. "... (My brother’s) been asking every day when I was going to play. So I can't wait to tell him about all of this."

Laird started at third base the next two games, went 0-for-5 with a walk and two strikeouts, then played third base in the last two innings of a blowout win against the Mariners on July 25th. The next day, Laird was returned to Triple-A Scranton to clear a roster spot for Eric Chavez, who came off the injured list. Laird hit .260/.288/.422 with 16 homers in 123 Triple-A games in 2011.

The Yankees brought Laird back up when rosters expanded in September, though he didn’t play much. He got two at-bats on Sept. 7th and didn’t play again until Sept. 22nd, after the Yankees all but clinched the AL East title. Laird went 1-for-5 in Game 156, 1-for-3 with a walk in Game 158, and 1-for-5 in Game 162. He went 4-for-21 (.190) with four singles with the big league team in 2011.

Expected to serve as corner infield depth again in 2012, Laird was merely okay while repeating Triple-A, and hit .255/.307/.414 with 31 doubles and 15 home runs in 130 games. The Yankees traded for Casey McGehee to be their righty hitting corner infielder at the deadline, which signaled they didn’t have much faith in Laird. He wasn't an option for them.

On Aug. 27th, the Yankees brought in another righty bat, this time getting Steve Pearce from the Astros in a cash trade. Laird was designated to make room on the 40-man roster and Houston claimed him on waivers five days later, so it was essentially a Laird for Pearce trade. In parts of six seasons in the organization, Laird got just those 21 MLB at-bats in 2011 in pinstripes.

"You're just waiting for the call, and things didn't go the way I wanted in New York," Laird told Reuters after going to the Astros. "I was patient, waited, and my agent said teams liked me and the Astros took me, and I'm excited to be here and get a chance to see what I can do."

The Astros were in their hard tanking years back then, so Laird got a look as a Sept. call up in 2012 and a slightly longer look in 2013. He hit .198/.248/.406 with six homers in 42 games with Houston those two seasons, his last big league stint. Laird finished 2013 in Triple-A with the Astros and spent 2014 in Triple-A with the Nationals. Washington never did call him up even though he hit .300/.351/.490 with 32 doubles and 18 homers in 130 Triple-A games.

After that 2014 season, Laird signed with the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan, and he finished third in the league with 34 homers as Shohei Ohtani’s teammate in 2015. He then led the league with 39 home runs in 2016. Laird is still playing in Japan and he hit at least 26 homers every year from 2015-20 except for the shortened pandemic season in 2020.

Now 34, Laird is in his third year with the Chiba Lotte Marines after playing four years with the (Ham) Fighters. He’s hitting .224/.272/.411 with 11 homers in 59 games this year and has 209 career homers in Japan. As of 2018, only eight foreign-born players had hit 250 homers in Japan. Laird could join the club if he’s able to hang on for another year or two.

“The Marines have been great. I enjoy playing there, living in Makuhari has been great for me and my family,” Laird told Jason Coskrey in 2019. Laird’s nickname in Japan is “Sushi Boy” because he mimes making sushi during his home run celebration (video), and he won a year’s supply of beer because he hit a sign with a home run during a game in 2016.

Salary information in Japan is not public like it in his MLB, but this says Laird made $2.208M last season, so I imagine he’s made pretty good money over there. He’s also represented Mexico in the World Baseball Classic and in last year’s Olympics. Despite not making it in MLB, Laird’s had a long career that’s taken him all over the world. Pretty neat.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Apparently Roderick Arias is not healthy enough to play in games yet. The Dominican Summer League season began last week and Arias, my No. 11 prospect and this year’s top international signing, is nowhere to be found. Last month international scouting director Donny Rowland said Arias is dealing with a “little tweak he’s got going on.” It is almost impossible to get updates (injury or otherwise) from the DSL. We’ll know Arias is healthy when he shows up in a box score. Hopefully it happens soon … Two minor trade deadline nuggets popped up over the weekend. First, Jon Heyman says the Yankees are planning to look for bullpen help, which makes sense in the wake of Chad Green’s Tommy John surgery. Here’s my attempt at finding the next Clay Holmes, in case you missed it. And second, Joel Sherman says the Yankees made a run at Josh Harrison at last year’s deadline and I believe it’s the first time we’re hearing about that. Harrison’s having a poor year with the White Sox (.181/.256/.284 and 58 wRC+) and, even though they’re off to a 27-31 start, I’m not convinced Chicago will sell because the AL Central is weak and there’s an extra postseason spot now. Also, Harrison has played little shortstop in his career. If the Yankees want to find an upgrade over Marwin Gonzalez, great, but I don’t think they’re gonna circle back to Harrison this deadline. He’s not hitting and has limited shortstop experience.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)