June 10th, 2022: Twins, Rotation, Cortes, Carpenter, Bullpen Trade Targets, Mailbag

MLB released the 2022 All-Star ballot earlier this week, if you care about such things. Gotta think Aaron Judge will be voted in as a starter for the fourth time (2017, 2018, 2021). Judge and some combination of Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Clay Holmes, Mike King, and Jameson Taillon are the best bets to represent the Yankees at the All-Star Game next month. Anyway, the voting’s open. Now let’s get to today’s thoughts.

1. Weekday thoughts. Wednesday’s 8-1 loss was the first time all season the Yankees a) lost a game by more than five runs (every team has done that now except the Dodgers), and b) felt out of a game. It was 4-1 after five innings and that’s hardly insurmountable, but the bottom of the bullpen let it get away, and that was that. Just not their night. Other than that, the Yankees have been in every game this year. Even when they lose, it’s a competitive game. I appreciate that. A few thoughts on the last few games.

Dominating the Twins

The Yankees lost a game by more than five runs for the first time this season Wednesday, then they won a game when trailing by more than three runs for the first time this season Thursday. They were down 7-3 after three innings, then scored seven unanswered runs en route to a 10-7 win. The pitching has carried the Yankees all year, but the rotation needed to be picked up this series, and the offense led them to two of three. That’s the good stuff.

“Don’t let us hang around. That’s the dynamic,” Aaron Boone said about the comeback win (video). “I kinda had that vibe when I went to the mound to take (Lucas) Luetge out for (Miguel) Castro. We were kinda hanging around, it was 7-3 at the time, and there was that feeling out on the mound like, ‘hey, they’re gonna let us hang around, keep grinding and we’re gonna get this one.’ It was one of those nights where it felt like there was that belief going on.”

As you know, the Yankees have owned the Twins head-to-head over the last two decades. The Yankees are 111-39 (.740) against Minnesota since the Twins hired Ron Gardenhire in 2002, postseason included. That’s a 120-win pace. The Yankees have not lost a series to the Twins since Sept. 2018, though, to be fair, they didn’t face each other in 2020.

The Yankees are 95-37 (.720) against the Twins in the regular season since 2002. As you might guess, that is the best record any team has against any other team during that time. Here’s the leaderboard (min. 50 games to get rid of those small sample interleague matchups):

1. Yankees vs. Twins: 95-37 (.720)
2. Yankees vs. Royals: 93-44 (.679)
3. Dodgers vs. Pirates: 89-46 (.659)
4. Angels vs. Tigers: 97-52 (.651)
5. Dodgers vs. Nationals: 78-42 (.650)

Maybe we should talk more about the Yankees dominating the Royals? They’re gonna have to meet in the postseason for that to happen. Part of the craziness of this Yankees-Twins thing is October. The Yankees have won their last 13 postseason games against the Twins. Their last postseason loss to Minnesota was Game 1 of the 2004 ALDS. They faced peak Johan Santana that game.

The Yankees won’t see the Twins again until September, when they visit Yankee Stadium for four games from Sept. 5th to 8th. Who knows, maybe the Yankees will need a little pick me up late in the season, and the Twins will roll into town to give it to them. Tough series for the rotation, but a good series overall. Facing the Twins rarely disappoints.

The rotation finally stumbles

As much as the Yankees have dominated the Twins over the years, something about Target Field makes their pitching fall apart*. The rotation finally had a bad series, and seeing how it didn’t happen until mid June, I’ll live. Jameson Taillon, Nestor Cortes, and Gerrit Cole each set a new season high in runs allowed the last three days. The pitching lines are ugly:

• Taillon: 4 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HR
• Cortes: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 2 HR
• Cole: 2.1 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 5 HR (!)

Taillon and Cortes were merely bad. Cole was a disaster. Back-to-back-to-back homers to start the game, then two more bombs to cap it off. And they were bombs. Every single home run was gone off the bat, and four of the five went at least into the second deck. Cole allowed a homer on his four-seamer, a homer on his changeup, a homer on his slider, and two homers on his cutter.

Cole had never allowed more than three homers in a start (MLB or minors). Then he allowed five to 17 batters. He entered the game with a 0.84 HR/9 and a 2.78 ERA (2.58 FIP), and exited with a 1.48 HR/9 and a 3.63 ERA (3.57 FIP). I almost took him out of the intro as an All-Star candidate, but he’ll be in that conversation when the time comes. Still, what a stinker.

“That was a struggle. Stuff was just over the middle of the plate,” Cole said after the game (video). “Pitch after pitch it just seemed like – credit to them, they got their A swings pitches they should hit, obviously they’re super talented and have really good hitters – but boy that was tough. Just really poor execution and not great stuff, and never found a way to make it any better.”

A month ago the Dodgers were sitting on team 2.25 ERA. Then they allowed 33 runs in a four-game series against the Phillies. It happens. The Yankees were due to have a bad series because no team’s true talent level is sub-3.0 runs allowed per game. That series came this week against the Twins. Very annoying, but three games is not yet a reason to panic.

* The Yankees have allowed 78 runs in their last 11 games at Target Field dating back to 2018. What’s that about?

A little more on Cortes

Taillon wasn’t sharp from the get-go Tuesday. He had traffic all night and had to grind from start to finish. Cortes sat down the first nine batters Wednesday, then the Twins went 7-for-10 with two homers once the lineup turned over. He missed in the middle of the plate more than he had in any other start this season. The locations of his two-strike pitches weren’t good enough:

Few too many pitches out over the plate and also way out of the zone for easy takes. The Twins had three hits in two-strike counts against Cortes and they also fouled away 17 pitches with two strikes. That is by far the most two-strike fouls Nestor has allowed this year. His previous high was 12 against the White Sox last month. Putting hitters away was a challenge Wednesday.

“I felt pretty good in the first three innings,” Cortes told Bryan Hoch after the game. “I was commanding all my pitches, throwing them to the right areas. There were a few that got away from me in the fourth and fifth inning I wish I could get back, but they’re a good hitting team and they made me battle all night.”

Given his career path, every little bump in the road will bring “has the clock struck midnight?” questions with Cortes, but come on. The guy’s been amazing! He’s allowed to have a bad start once in a while. Taillon too. Unless this becomes a thing that spans multiple starts, I’m chalking it up to just one of those games against a pretty good lineup. Bad starts happen.

Carpenter’s role

Now that all the position players are healthy, Matt Carpenter doesn’t have much of a role with the Yankees. He’ll pinch-hit for the catchers* (or maybe Isiah Kiner-Falefa) in a close game and possibly play the field for an inning or two in a blowout. That’s about it. The Yankees already have to sit one regular each night. Give Carpenter a start and two regulars have to sit.

* Giancarlo Stanton, not Carpenter, pinch-hit for Jose Trevino in Thursday's game because he was guaranteed to face the lefty thanks to the three-batter minimum. Obviously the right move. Had there been a righty on the mound, I think Carpenter would've pinch-hit.

That isn’t to say the Yankees should jettison Carpenter. He has value as a veteran lefty bat who will grind out an at-bat and put a mistake in the short porch, plus Carpenter accepts his role, and that’s important. It’s just that it’s not the most useful skill set for the current roster. I think there’s a case to be made Tim Locastro’s speed and glove help the Yankees more than Carpenter’s bat.

It’s too bad the Yankees can’t stash Carpenter in Triple-A until there’s an injury or until the postseason, when he can be that extra bench bat. Carpenter has gotten two at-bats in the last week and that’s about the pace at which we’ll see him going forward. It’s just a weird fit for the roster. Always was, but injuries opened at-bats when the Yankees first signed him. Now Carpenter’s just kinda there for very specific situations that don’t pop up very often.

Miscellany

Joey Gallo hit two home runs Thursday and is 10-for-40 (.250) with three home runs in 11 games as the full-time right fielder. The start of something? Or a blip? Gallo did say he’s more comfortable in right field, and maybe that carries over to being more comfortable at the plate? I can buy it. For now, I need to see more. Gallo’s fooled me too many times the last 10 months … Rough, rough game in right field for Stanton on Wednesday. He let three catchable balls drop in (this one, this one, and this one) and all three contributed to runs. None of the three was a routine play, but they were plays a Major League outfielder should make. “I’ve got to make those plays and put us in a better situation to not let the game break away … Those are mistakes that can’t happen,” Stanton told Dan Martin after the game. Stanton’s been pretty good in the outfield overall. Not amazing but not Bobby Abreu-ian either. That was just an awful game. The defense had a bad series in Minnesota. Three errors (could’ve been four) Tuesday and then Stanton on Wednesday (the Twins returned the favor with some sloppy play Thursday). Yucky few games in the field … And finally, it’s too bad DJ LeMahieu flew out in his final at-bat Tuesday night. He went 3-for-4 with two walks and had a chance to become the first Yankee to reach base six times in a nine-inning game since, uh, Stephen Drew. Drew went 4-for-4 with two walks against the Braves on Aug. 30th, 2015. Here is the recent history of Yankees reaching base six times in a nine-inning game:

• 1995-2014: 5 times (Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Russell Martin, Hideki Matsui twice)
• 2015: 3 times (Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner)
• 2016 to present: 0 times

Five times in 20 years, then three times in one year (three times in four months, really), and then zero times in the last seven years and counting. Go figure. I would’ve guessed Aaron Judge had a 3-for-3 with three walks game, something along those lines, at some point when the Yankees were beating the crap out of the Orioles from 2017-20, but nope. The last Yankee to reach base six times in a game of any length was Didi Gregorius. He went 5-for-5 with a walk in a 10-inning game against the Twins on July 23rd, 2019. That was the wild back and forth game that ended on the Air Hicks catch. Only four Yankees have ever reached base more than six times in a game, and none since 1936.

2. Finding the next Holmes. A little less than a year ago the Yankees made one of the most impactful trades of what we’ll call the Aaron Judge era. They sent two utility man prospects to the Pirates for righty Clay Holmes, who was nondescript in parts of four seasons with Pittsburgh. Almost literally overnight, he morphed into one of the game’s best relievers.

• with PIT: 5.57 ERA (4.72 FIP) with 19.9 K%, 14.9 BB%, 63.8 GB% in 119.2 IP
• with NYY: 0.99 ERA (1.91 FIP) with 30.8 K%, 3.5 BB%, 72.1 GB% in 54.2 IP

There were indications Holmes could be a good reliever with the Pirates. That ground ball rate is really good and he’s always thrown hard. For whatever reason the Pirates couldn’t maximize the talent of the guy with a 98 mph sinker. The Yankees took him and fixed him right up. “That 14.9% walk rate? We don’t do that here,” was what they told him, probably.

“We feel like he's going to be a guy that is already very tough on righties, but we feel like he has the stuff and the repertoire to go to another place,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch after the Holmes trade. “... We feel like there's still room in there for him to continue to grow as a really good reliever in this game.”

The Holmes trade has worked out so unbelievably well that expecting the Yankees to do it again is unreasonable. That’s not going to stop me from looking for candidates to be the next Holmes though. We know the Yankees seek out certain traits in their relievers (the traits that led them to Holmes in the first place), and we can use them to find possible trade targets. The traits:

• High velocity sinker (preferably high-90s, but mid-90s works too)
• Middling slider movement (so the Yankees can teach him the sweeper)
• Suppresses hard contact (Holmes had a sub-5% barrel rate in Pittsburgh)
• Control problems (difficult to fix, but the Yankees did it with Holmes)
• Little to no track record of MLB success (how else do you buy low?)
• Multiple years of control (the Yankees have Holmes through 2024)

Chad Green’s Tommy John surgery means there will be an open bullpen spot even after Aroldis Chapman and Jonathan Loaisiga return from the injured list, plus Chapman, Green, Zack Britton, and Miguel Castro will be free agents after the season. Adding a controllable reliever is as much about 2022 as it is 2023 and beyond.

Anyway, using those traits I scoured the league and tried to find pitchers who fit as much of the profile as possible, and thus could theoretically interest the Yankees at the deadline. Here are the five candidates I came up with, listed alphabetically.

RHP Junior Fernandez, Cardinals

Career stats: 6.27 ERA (5.27 FIP), 19.4 K%, 13.1 BB%, 46.0 GB% in 37.1 IP
Sinker velocity: 97.1 mph
Slider movement: 185% below average (!)
Barrel rate: 5.3%
Contract status: Under control through 2026

Fernandez has something in common with Holmes: Baseball America ranked him among his organization’s top 30 prospects five years in a row. Baseball America had Holmes in Pittsburgh’s top 30 eight (!) years in a row, which is pretty wild, but even five years on a prospect list is a ton. Like Holmes, Fernandez was a dude for quite a while. Here’s video.

The 25-year-old Fernandez has not pitched well in Triple-A the last two seasons (5.89 ERA and 4.35 FIP in 36.2 innings) and he seems to have fallen out of favor with St. Louis, which could lower the asking price. Last year Eric Longenhagen said Fernandez “clearly has late-inning stuff,” though injuries and control issues have held him back.

Like Holmes with the Pirates, Fernandez has the heavy sinker and has shown some ability to limit hard contact, and there’s some room for improvement with the breaking ball. As far as the potential to be the next Holmes, Fernandez checks a lot of boxes. He seems like a classic “we think we can fix him” arm who will get plenty of opportunities.

LHP John King, Rangers

Career stats: 3.63 ERA (3.67 FIP), 19.4 K%, 7.2 BB%, 58.4 GB% in 79.1 IP
Sinker velocity: 92.3 mph
Slider movement: 25% above average
Barrel rate: 4.0%
Contract status: Under control through 2026

Maybe this is cheating because we know the Yankees have (or had) interest in King. He was supposed to be part of the Joey Gallo trade, but he was out with a shoulder issue at the time, and the trade was reworked to include Joely Rodriguez after the Yankees balked at King’s medicals. King turning up in my search tells me I’m barking up the right tree.

“That was crazy. I didn’t know how to feel about it,” King told Jeff Wilson about being in the trade and then not being in the trade. “... I was like, awesome, because I like playing here. It’s the team I came up with and I’m from Houston.”

The 27-year-old King is healthy and pitching well this season (2.74 ERA and 3.45 FIP), which goes against part of our criteria. So does his sinker velocity. It is what it is. You may remember King giving up Gleyber Torres’ walk-off homer a few weeks ago, prompting the “Little League park” remark from Rangers manager Chris Woodward. It’s the only home run King has allowed in 2022.

Also, King has an unusual arm angle (video). He slings the ball from a low, basically sidearm slot. The Yankees have made an effort to vary the looks of their relievers and King would fit. Two Kings in the bullpen is better than one, right? The fact this King was on the radar last year should maybe disqualify him from our next Holmes search, but he fits the mold. Renewed interest this year shouldn’t be a surprise.

RHP Zack Pop, Marlins

Career stats: 4.37 ERA (3.60 FIP), 21.2 K%, 9.3 BB%, 57.5 GB% in 57.2 IP
Sinker velocity: 94.7 mph
Slider movement: 17% above average
Barrel rate: 6.4%
Contract status: Under control through 2026

Pop strikes me as a great candidate to be the next Holmes. He was originally a Dodgers draft pick who went to the Orioles in the Manny Machado trade, then the Marlins carried him on their roster all last season as a Rule 5 Draft pick. Pop was decent too. This year he’s an up and (mostly) down reliever with a 1.86 ERA (2.94 FIP) in Triple-A.

Last season was Pop’s first full season following Tommy John surgery (he would have missed most of 2020 rehabbing even if there was a normal minor league season) and he looked just okay when he returned last spring. From Longenhagen last April:

Peak Pop looked much like a turbo sinker/slider, high-leverage low-slot reliever with a shot to be a set-up guy does, but he looks more like a very solid middle-inning option now. He was sitting anywhere between 93-98 during 2021 spring training and more commonly lives 94-96. It’s not an in-zone swing-and-miss pitch and instead gets groundballs. Pop’s slider has length, though what looks like early break to my eye provides an early in-flight tell, and hitters seem able to pick it up pretty well … He has fair command of both offerings

Pop just had his first normal offseason since Tommy John surgery and he’s run his sinker up to 97 mph in his very limited MLB time this year. The Yankees know a thing or two about improving sliders and Pop seems to be a good candidate for the sweeper. There’s a lot of run on his sinker too. This seems like it’ll play (GIFs via Rob Friedman):

The Marlins know pitching, though a) they’re not infallible, and b) most of their success is tied up in starters. They have weirdly been bad at developing relievers. Given what he did last season (good, not amazing, but enough to warrant a longer look I think), Pop belongs in the big leagues. He strikes me as a prime candidate to be stolen away and coached up.

RHP Sean Poppen, Diamondbacks

Career stats: 4.55 ERA (3.66 FIP), 22.7 K%, 10.5 BB%, 42.5 GB% in 55.1 IP
Sinker velocity: 94.6 mph
Slider movement: 83% above average
Barrel rate: 6.2%
Contract status: Under control through 2026

It can be telling when certain teams target a player, and last year the Rays claimed Poppen off waivers. He only made one appearance for them (plus 19 more in Triple-A) before going back on waivers, but at some point they saw something they liked, and Tampa knows pitching. Like every other team though, they sometimes miss and let guys get away (see: Evan Phillips).

The current version of Poppen is similar to the Pirates version of Holmes with one key difference: he doesn’t get grounders. Even when he was bad with Pittsburgh, Holmes got a ton of grounders. Poppen doesn’t, even though his stuff is pretty lively. This looks like it has the potential to be a useful, if not dominant, reliever (GIF via Rays Metrics):

Part of what makes Holmes so great is his execution. It’s not just that he throws hard and has a wicked slider. He locates very well and tunnels his pitches in a way that allows them to play up. Maybe Poppen, who was never regarded as much of a prospect while coming up through the Twins system, is just a guy with a live arm who can’t execute consistently? Then again, who thought Holmes would execute at this elite level when he was with the Pirates? Anyone can look great in GIF. Doing it consistently is a different matter.

Poppen has a 2.16 ERA this season and he’s stranded all 10 runners he’s inherited, though the underlying numbers (16.7% strikeouts, 12.1% walks, 26.7% grounders) are ugly. The raw stuff is visually impressive and the fact Poppen was claimed off waivers three times in a 10-month span last year indicates teams like him. Then again, maybe he’s just one of those live-armed dudes who never fully puts it together.

RHP Collin Snider, Royals

Career stats: 7.84 ERA (4.83 FIP), 13.2 K%, 11.0 BB%, 49.3 GB% in 20.2 IP
Sinker velocity: 96.0 mph
Slider movement: 13% above average
Barrel rate: 4.4%
Contract status: Under control through 2027

Snider is the bizarro Holmes. He is known more for his slider than his sinker, though he’s run his sinker up to 99 mph this season. Snider produces that velocity despite being a low slot slinger. Also, he doesn't have a multi-year track record of being a mediocre big leaguer. He’s a rookie who made his MLB debut in the second game of this season. Here’s video. 

“I would not want to hit against that. That’s disgusting. It’s gross,” Sammy Lizarraga, one of Snider’s coaches at Vanderbilt, told Alec Lewis (subs. req’d) in Spring Training. “That slider and sinker play off the same plane and tunnel. It’s 20 inches over one way, 10 inches over the other. Thirty inches of separation east to west. It’s ridiculous.”

The upper-90s velocity is relatively new. Snider has gradually added velocity since sitting low-90s in 2019, and jumping into the upper-90s raises his ceiling. In fact, Longenhagen specifically mentioned Holmes as an example of Snider’s ceiling a few weeks ago. Snider hasn’t missed many bats yet or even gotten ground balls, though the raw tools hint at the potential to be a difference-maker.

(The Royals will get a ton of calls before the deadline about righties Scott Barlow and Josh Staumont, their two top relievers, and maybe Dylan Coleman as well. Coleman is a traditional fastball/slider reliever with big strikeout rates. Kansas City could control the bullpen market this summer.)

* * *

Is this the most exciting collection of five bullpen trade targets? No, absolutely not. But no one had Holmes in mind at this time last season except the Yankees. From the outside, It was easy to see Holmes as a dime a dozen big arm/bad results guy. Someone with a chance to be good who probably wouldn’t be. The Yankees saw through it and have been rewarded.

Also, don’t forget that when the Yankees traded for Holmes, they didn’t immediately thrust him into high leverage work. He pitched his way there. Britton, Chapman, Green, and Loaisiga were the late inning guys. Only after it became apparent Holmes was a capital-D Dude did he get important innings. There are good relievers with untapped potential out there. Holmes was one and the next Holmes is out there waiting to plucked away. Hopefully the Yankees find him.

3. 2020 draft prospect: RHP Kumar Rocker. The 2022 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 25 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some will be players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

If nothing else, Rocker is the most famous prospect in the 2022 draft class. He was a potential first rounder out of high school in 2018 who fell to the Rockies in the 38th round because he was dead set on going to Vanderbilt. His father, Tracy, played two years in the NFL and is a College Football Hall of Famer. He is currently the Philadelphia Eagles defensive line coach.

In 2019, Rocker threw a 19-strikeout no-hitter with Vanderbilt’s season on the line in the Super Regionals. It is maybe the greatest college pitching performance ever given the stakes. The Mets took Rocker with the No. 10 pick in last year’s draft and they agreed to a $6M bonus, but the team backed out after seeing something they didn’t like in Rocker’s physical. He did not sign.

The Mets received the No. 11 pick in this year’s draft as compensation and Rocker went into this draft’s player pool. Last month he signed with the independent Tri-City ValleyCats so he could showcase himself prior to the draft, and also debunk rumors he would soon have Tommy John surgery. Here are Rocker’s current draft rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 35
• FanGraphs: No. 12
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 46
• MLB.com: No. 39

Those rankings were all published prior to Rocker’s debut with Tri-City this past weekend, when he shoved for three innings before running out of gas in the fourth (4 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 6 K, 1 HR while on a 60-ish pitch limit). Because he’s just now starting to pitch in games, Rocker’s draft stock is subject to change moreso than any other player in the class these next few weeks.

Here’s video of Rocker’s Tri-City debut and here is Keith Law’s firsthand account of his outing (subs. req’d):

Rocker’s velocity was as good as ever on Saturday, as he hit 98 mph multiple times and was 95-98 mph over his four innings … Rocker showed four pitches, just as he did when I saw him last year, with two breaking balls that kind of run into each other and a changeup that’s clearly the fourth pitch in his repertoire. He showed better feel for his breaking stuff after the first inning, when he threw a few curveballs without a lot of conviction, but both pitches were above-average when he got rolling, with the slider up to 89 mph and the curveball showing tighter rotation … The one noticeable difference from last year was that his arm slot was slightly lower. I don’t know if that’s by design, but it’s something to monitor going forward.

There were rumblings about Rocker’s medicals being a concern prior to the draft last summer. Beyond that, there were also questions about his slider, and how it would play at the next level. It was exclusively a chase pitch at Vanderbilt, and his fastball command wasn’t good enough to get ahead in the count consistently. He could dominate college kids like that. Pros? It’s unclear.

With every top draft prospect, the industry tends to hype him up coming into the spring, then nitpick his game in the weeks leading up to the draft. Rocker is now in Year 2 of the nitpicking. The medicals will obviously have to be scrutinized and yeah, there are questions about his slider at the next level. Ultimately, this dude throws 97+ with three secondary pitches, and he was a man among boys in college baseball’s toughest conference. That’s a great foundation.

I don’t think Rocker has much of a chance to go as high as No. 10 or get a $6M bonus this year, but almost all the top college pitchers are hurt, and he brings that pedigree. A strong few weeks with Tri-City and clean medicals could boost his draft stock considerably, and put him firmly in the first round mix (as you’d expect, there were a ton of scouts at his start this past weekend).

I feel like the Yankees are stuck in-between with Rocker. If he pitches well with Tri-City, then he’ll likely come off the board before the No. 25 pick. And if he’s just okay and doesn’t really allay any concerns about his health or secondaries, then the Yankees will probably look elsewhere. They tend to go bats early and pitching late because they’re so good at helping arms level up. To take a pitcher in the first round, they have to love him, and I’m not sure they’re there with Rocker.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Steve asks: Hey Mike, it might be a little early for a question like this.. but do you think the Yankees should throw Waldichuk and/or Wesneski in the bullpen around August and see if they can help the big league team? The Yankees have two late game relievers we feel good about, with a TBD on Loaisiga/Chapman/Schmidt. With fewer teams looking to sell with the expanded playoffs it might be tougher than ever to acquire a late game reliever. All due respect to Miguel Castro, but if he's pitching a critical moment in the playoffs I'll be physically sick. I know they've been somewhat reluctant to trust a young pitcher in the playoffs, but it feels like they're way short in the bullpen at the moment and would greatly benefit from an extra bullpen arm throwing upper 90s.

Never too early for a question like this! It should be all hands on deck when you’re trying to win the World Series, so yes, Ken Waldichuk and Hayden Wesneski in the bullpen must be on the table. The Yankees famously did this with Joba Chamberlain in 2007, and two years ago they were willing (kinda) to use Deivi Garcia in the postseason. They’ll use a young pitcher in October if they consider him the best option.

In my amateur opinion, Waldichuk is better suited for relief because he misses so many bats with his invisiball fastball (he’s also improved his slider this year). You can stick a guy like that in the bullpen, tell him to spam hitters with his heater a la Chad Green, and let him go. Wesneski can be successful in relief too, sure, but he’s more of a deep arsenal guy with several good pitches rather than one or two great pitches he could lean on in short bursts.

Breaking young pitchers in as relievers is old school player development and it still works. Aaron Ashby, Corbin Burnes, Freddie Peralta, and Brandon Woodruff all started their MLB careers in the bullpen with the Brewers, and now they’re all very good starters. I don’t think Luis Severino becomes what he is now without his 2016 stint in the bullpen. Learning how to get outs in the big leagues, regardless of role, is valuable experience.

Bottom line, the Yankees are trying to win a title and should field the best possible roster in the postseason. If Waldichuk and/or Wesneski are among the 12-13 best pitchers in the organization come September and October, then absolutely put them in the bullpen. For now, the Yankees will keep developing them as starters. We can worry about their exact fit later in the season, if there is a fit. They should be bullpen candidates though. Absolutely.

Anonymous asks: The Yanks rotation has been great so far and this is a long ways off but if all 5 of these guys are healthy and performing well is Severino the guy who moves to the bullpen by default? He has the most experience in the role and other than Cole his stuff would play up best in short bursts.

I get the logic but I would guess not. The Yankees view Luis Severino as an ace caliber pitcher, and that’s someone who should be in the postseason rotation. I think there’s an argument to be made (and maybe I’ll make it later this year, let’s see how the season goes) that using Severino as a high leverage reliever 2-3(-4?) times in a short postseason series is the most impactful way to use him and the entire pitching staff. I think they’d start him though.

As good as he’s been, Jordan Montgomery is clearly the No. 5 starter right now, and he has very little bullpen experience. He came out of the bullpen behind an opener in his first game back from Tommy John surgery in 2019, he pitched in long relief a few times in low minors in 2014 and 2015, and that’s it. If he’s still the odd man out of the postseason rotation come the end of the season, the Yankees will give him a few relief outings to get him acclimated.

Truth be told, Nestor Cortes might be the starter best suited for relief in the postseason. He has bullpen experience and a rubber arm. He’s the kinda guy who can get you three outs one night and go three innings the next. I’m not sure Severino (or Montgomery) could do something like that. Plus Nestor’s funk would be a nasty change of pace coming in after Severino and Gerrit Cole.

We need to see how the season plays out and how the rotation holds up before really worrying about this, but I don’t think Severino’s bullpen experience (and the success of the rest of the rotation) means he’s automatically ticketed for the postseason rotation. The Yankees will put whoever they consider their four best starters in the postseason rotation, and I think Severino’s one of them.

Joe asks: Does it make sense to carry both Schmidt & ManBan? Banuelos had a decent debut, why not keep him (given he’s not expected to start nor a long term piece) and send Schmidt down to start.

Joe sent this question in before Clarke Schmidt and Manny Banuelos let Wednesday’s game get out of hand. I think it makes sense to carry both right now, while Aroldis Chapman and Jonathan Loaisiga are out. Once they (and possibly Zack Britton and Domingo German further down the road) return, it will be a different story. For the current roster though, I like it.

Carrying Banuelos as a traditional “we don’t care if he goes 10 days without pitching” long man allows the Yankees to use Schmidt more often, and he has been used more often lately. He’s pitched four times in the last 12 games after pitching five times in his first 34 games on the active roster. Schmidt is 26. I want to see what the kid has already and this a chance to do it.

Also, what are the alternatives? David McKay? JP Sears? Add Shane Greene to the 40-man roster? Despite my answer to the earlier question, I don’t think it’s time to put Ken Waldichuk or Hayden Wesneski in the bullpen. It’s a little too early in the season for that. Let them continue their development in Triple-A, then think about a shift to the bullpen later.

I can buy the argument Sears should be in the bullpen over Banuelos because he’s younger and more likely to have a long-term role with the Yankees (Manny’s cool, but chances are this is just a summer fling). But again, if he’s just going to sit in the bullpen for days at a time, I’d rather let the journeyman do that. And if it’s McKay or Greene or Schmidt, give me Schmidt.

The Yankees are carrying four bench players and eight relievers right now, so this isn’t a “drop a pitcher and call up another position player” situation. They’re not shrinking the bullpen anymore, and with Chapman and Loaisiga out, I think Banuelos and Schmidt are fine. Banuelos can be the low leverage guy and Schmidt can get an extended look. I’m fine with it for now.

John asks: Hey, I know there's been some discussion about Benintendi or Reynolds as potential trade targets, but what about Josh Bell? He's having a better season (and is probably a better hitter) than either Benintendi or Reynolds, likely wouldn't require top prospects, and would obviously deepen the lineup. He could DH most of the time leaving Stanton to play more RF, Judge more CF, and maybe a platoon in LF of Miggy + Gallo or Hicks? Finally, he'd serve as insurance for both Rizzo and Stanton.

The Matt Carpenter signing probably closed the door on Bell. Carpenter is much cheaper, he provides more versatility (even though both guys are basically DHs), and he provides the same lefty power. Bell is a switch-hitter, though he’s been only league average as a righty throughout his career, and I don’t think that’ll be enough to give up prospects and take on a bunch of salary.

There’s also this: Bell’s contact quality numbers have taken a huge dip this season. He went in Thursday’s game hitting .300/.371/.419 (122 wRC) this year and that’s really good overall, but his power is down (only five homers in 239 plate appearances) and the underlying numbers are a red flag:

• Average exit velocity: 88.5 mph (92.5 mph last year)
• Hard-hit rate: 37.0% (51.5% last year)
• Barrel rate: 4.9% (8.8% last year)

The year-to-year exit velocity and hard-hit rate declines are among the three largest in baseball among the 315 players who batted at least 400 times last year and 100 times this year (the barrel rate decline is merely one of the 20 largest). The Yankees are all about exit velocity and hitting the ball hard, and Bell’s not doing it. Add in the defensive limitations and Carpenter’s presence, and I think this is a no go for the Yankees.

(Bell is better than Carpenter and I’d rather have him as a spare lefty bat, and any little upgrade is worth it for the Yankees. I just don’t think the Yankees see the upgrade as big enough to justify the cost in talent and money. Bell is a free agent-to-be and will get traded at the deadline. He would fit very well with the righty heavy Blue Jays at DH.)

Adam asks: When Andujar is sent down to the minors, does he still get his Major League salary? Does the fact of having minor league options imply that you get a split contract?

Miguel Andujar gets his MLB salary ($1.3M) in Triple-A. When an arbitration-eligible player signs a split contract, it’s usually because he’s a fringe guy who’s looking at a non-tender if he doesn’t agree to the team’s terms. Andujar has real value to the Yankees (the Yankees acknowledge this by keeping him) and thus leverage to negotiate one set salary rather than a split contract (given his trade request, I’m guessing he would have welcomed a non-tender this winter). Andujar is a unique situation and this is a case by case thing. A handful of arbitration-eligible players agree to split contracts each year. Most get one set salary because they’re established big leaguers who are locked into a roster spot, and not in danger of being demoted.

Steven asks: Was thinking about whether or not the Yankees will/should promote The Martian, and thought maybe they'll hold him/other top prospects in Tampa longer than they normally would, because Tampa is outfitted with statcast and so the organization as a whole can keep a closer eye on his measurables when he's down there as opposed to Hudson Valley. Is this a thing that happens?

It is definitely not a thing that happens. Every playable field in the system, including at the minor league complex in Tampa and the academy in the Dominican Republic, has tracking technology. I don’t know for certain that the Yankees switched from Trackman to Hawk-Eye when MLB did two years ago, but I assume they did because it provides more data.

The only Statcast data we have is what MLB gives us, and they have given us Statcast for Low-A Tampa and the rest of the Florida State League because they tested the automated strike zone at the level last season (they’re testing it in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League this year and Statcast is available for those games too). The Yankees have info on every pitch and every play in the system at every level, so this isn’t the reason Jasson Dominguez is still in Tampa. The Yankees have the data, but we only get access to a tiny little portion of it.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)