June 3rd, 2022: Outfield, Taillon, Carpenter, Cordero, Trade Chips, Mailbag

At 36-15, the Yankees are off to the eighth best start in franchise history, and their best since the 1998 team started 38-13. The Yankees went to the World Series every previous year they started this well and won it four times. Granted, most of those trips came when there was one postseason round, but good vibes are good vibes. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. Aaron Judge robbed Shohei Ohtani of a homer on Tuesday (video) and hit a homer against Ohtani on Thursday (video). That’s the good stuff. I don’t have much to say about the Angels series otherwise (I’ll be honest, I expected the doubleheader to get rained out), but here are a few quick thoughts on the series before we move onto other matters.

Shutting down the stars

The Angels are Angelsing. Since their 21-11 start, they are 6-14, and they’ve lost eight straight games. We’re at the point in the season where the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders, the hot starts become breakout seasons, and the slow starts become down years. The Angels ain’t it. Again.

The Yankees allowed three runs in the three games against Anaheim, and they shut down their top three hitters. This is how you do it:

• Taylor Ward: 1-for-12 with a walk and four strikeouts
• Shohei Ohtani: 2-for-12 with a walk and four strikeouts
• Mike Trout: 0-for-10 with a walk and four strikeouts

Did you see the rest of the Angels lineup? Jared Walsh is a good player, but Walsh at first, Luis Rengifo at second, Andrew Velazquez at short, and Tyler Wade at third is the kinda lineup a rebuilding team runs out there in August and September, after they trade their veterans at the deadline. Shut down the big three and you’ll sweep the Angels, like the Yankees did this week.

The Yankees have pitched well against everyone and I thought maybe the “shutting down the other team’s best players” thing was a trend, but eh, it’s hit or miss. Jose Ramirez went 1-for-11 when the Guardians came through town, but Tim Anderson is 10-for-27 against the Yankees and Austin Hays is 17-for-48 with eight extra-base hits. Some good, some bad.

For at least this one series, the Yankees shut down the other team’s best hitters. Ward, Ohtani, and Trout went a combined 3-for-34 (.088) in the three games, and there’s just no way the Angels can win when those three do that. The rest of the lineup is too thin. The pitching has been so unbelievably good this year. It’s remarkable what the staff is doing, top to bottom.

A different outfield alignment

The Yankees used a new outfield alignment in Game 1 of Thursday’s doubleheader: Aaron Hicks in left, Judge in center, and Joey Gallo in right. They have used Hicks in left with Judge in center a bunch of times this year, but it was always Giancarlo Stanton in right. This time it was Gallo, a good defender who doesn’t need to be hidden in the tiny right field at Yankee Stadium. Hmmm.

“I like it a lot,” Gallo told Dan Martin about playing right field earlier this week. “It feels like home. But I’ll play whatever they need me to play.”

Gallo has started each of the last eight games in right field, though Hicks missed a few days with a hamstring issue in Tampa, and Miguel Andujar’s never played right field. The Yankees put Andujar in left because that’s where he’s comfortable, and Gallo slid over to right. Now everyone is available and Gallo is still playing right. This seems like a thing.

Hicks did not play Tuesday (Judge was in center and Andujar was in left) and Gallo had maybe his best game as a Yankee, going 2-for-3 with a walk and two very good defensive plays to hold runners to singles on balls hit to the wall. Part of me wonders whether Aaron Boone heard Gallo say right field “feels like home,” saw that game Tuesday, and said let’s keep him there and make him as comfortable as possible as we try to get him going.

Of course, Gallo then went 1-for-7 in the doubleheader Thursday with that brutal bases loaded strikeout (swinging through 93 mph fastballs in the zone? really?), so that game Tuesday wasn’t the start of something. It was just a random good game. It’s more notable Judge is playing so much center field. He started 21 games in center last year. He’s already started 18 games in center this year, including five of the last seven and 10 of the last 24.

The willingness to play Judge in center opens up so many possibilities for the Yankees, including at the trade deadline. It’s much easier to find a new corner outfielder(s) than a new center fielder. Judge playing center, and to a lesser extent Gallo playing right, is worth watching going forward. This is becoming a thing and there’s a reason for it. What that reason is, I’m not entirely sure, but the Yankees aren’t doing it on a whim.

Miscellany

Jameson Taillon is gonna get capital-P Paid this offseason. I’m happy for him. He was marvelous again Thursday night, taking a perfect game into the eighth and lowering his season numbers to a 2.30 ERA (2.89 FIP) through 10 starts and 58.2 innings. Not bad for a guy who had major ankle surgery in October. If the postseason started today, who’d start Game 1? For the first time since the late-1990s dynasty, the Yankees have multiple excellent options … Matt Carpenter has three hits and three homers as a Yankee. He joins Alfonso Soriano and Kyle Higashioka as the only players whose first three hits as a Yankee were home runs. Those were Soriano’s and Higashioka’s first three career big league hits, which is pretty cool. If Carpenter’s gonna keep socking dingers, the Yankees are gonna have to find a way to keep him on the roster after Josh Donaldson and Giancarlo Stanton get healthy, but let them get healthy before we worry about where Carpenter fits … Ohtani went into Thursday’s start with a 16.3% swinging strike rate this season, fourth highest in baseball. The Yankees swung and missed only three times at his 75 pitches, or 4.0%. Their first swing and miss came on Ohtani’s 53rd pitch. They hit him like they knew what was coming, and after the game Joe Maddon seemed to indicate Ohtani was tipping his pitches, according to Jeff Fletcher. Either way, the Yankees were all over him. Four runs on eight hits, including three homers, in three innings and 17 batters faced. Ohtani has allowed 11 runs and 16 baserunners in 3.2 career innings at Yankee Stadium. Maybe it’s a good thing the Yankees didn’t sign him? (lol no, I’d take that guy eight days a week and twice on Sundays) … And finally, being the 27th man for a doubleheader must not count against the new five-option limit. Estevan Florial has been the 27th man already three times this year. I can’t imagine the Yankees left themselves only two Florial options (i.e. the ability to send him to Triple-A) for the final 111 games. Between this and the 10-day/15-day rule for pitchers, I’ve lost track of these new rule changes. MLB and the MLBPA keep pushing the 13-pitcher limit back and seemingly everything that goes along with it. I give up. We’ll figure it out as we go.

2. Jimmy Biceps begins rehab stint. Right-hander Jimmy Cordero, who signed a minor league deal with the Yankees over the winter, has been activated by Triple-A Scranton*. He’ll make his season debut this weekend. Cordero had Tommy John surgery last March and has completed his behind the scenes rehab work, and is game ready.

“He’ll be in the mix here soon,” pitching coach Matt Blake told Dan Martin last weekend. “He looks good, throwing in the mid-90s with that sinker. He’s close to a rehab assignment.”

Cordero, 30, had an unsightly 6.07 ERA (3.87 FIP) in 26.2 innings during the 60-game pandemic season, though a lot of the damage came in his final few appearances and inflated his ERA. The underlying numbers in his 83 career big league innings are pretty much everything the Yankees want in their pitchers these days:

• Ground ball rate: 54.7% (MLB average: 43.1%)
• Sinker velocity: 97.0 mph (MLB average: 92.9 mph)
• Average exit velocity: 85.8 mph (MLB average: 88.7 mph)
• Barrel rate: 4.2% (MLB average: 7.4%)

Cordero’s 17.9% strikeout rate and 12.1% swinging strike rate aren’t anything special, but Clay Holmes had an 11.0% swinging strike rate before joining the Yankees (it’s 16.0% now), and everything else about Cordero is like a Holmes starter kit. Heavy sinker, lots of ground balls, and lots of weak contact. It is a profile the Yankees seek out.

The Tommy John surgery is a complicating factor. Control is usually the last thing to return and while Cordero wasn’t a high walk rate guy previously (career 8.8%), bad location doesn’t always mean walks. It could mean hittable pitches left out over the plate. Cordero will shake off the rust during the rehab assignment and the Yankees will see what’s what.

Chad Green is done for the season and Aroldis Chapman and Jonathan Loaisiga are both out who knows how long, so the bullpen is in a state of flux. Can Cordero and his biceps contribute at some point? Counting on Tommy John surgery guys to make an immediate impact is dicey, but I’m not putting anything by the Yankees on the pitching side right now. They’re magicians.

Bottom line, there is opportunity abound in the bullpen and Cordero, at least prior to having his elbow rebuilt, did all the things the Yankees like. He’s a power sinker guy who limits hard contact. Expecting another Holmes-esque massive success story is probably unrealistic, but maybe? Either way, Cordero is healthy now and pitching. That’s step one toward joining the Yankees.

* Because he’s not on the 40-man roster, Cordero is technically an active Triple-A player rather than a big leaguer player on a rehab assignment. It’s an important distinction because rehabbing MLB pitchers can only spend 30 days on a rehab assignment. The Yankees can keep Cordero in Triple-A longer than 30 days if they want.

3. Trade chips. The 2022 trade deadline is Aug. 2nd this year (MLB moved it back a few days to account for the delayed start to the season) and we’re almost exactly halfway between Opening Day (57 days ago) and the trade deadline (60 days from now). The next few weeks will be rumor-filled, then the actual trades will pick up closer to the deadline, after the draft in July*.

* R.J. Anderson wrote about MLB moving the draft to the All-Star break last year, and what it means for the trade deadline. Front office folks hate it because it compresses the schedule around two of the most important events of the year. But really, almost nothing happens in this sport until a deadline approaches anyway. MLB executives are world class procrastinators.

The Yankees are among baseball’s best teams, though they have a few obvious needs (at least one outfield bat, pitching given the injuries, etc.). We’ll scour the market and break down potential trade targets and any rumors these next few weeks. I want to start trade deadline coverage with a look at who the Yankees might trade. Who could go to improve the MLB roster? Let’s dive in.

MLB roster players

It stands to reason a team trying to win the World Series wants to add to its big league roster, not subtract from it, though it’s not quite that simple. The Yankees used Tyler Clippard as a salary offset in the big White Sox trade. Brandon Drury went in the J.A. Happ trade after losing his job to Miguel Andujar. Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson were salary dumped to make the luxury tax work. Non-core big league players are absolutely trade candidates.

At this point Joey Gallo, who was expected to be a core guy but is not, is a trade candidate. Give the Yankees a truth serum and I’m certain they’d tell you they want Gallo to get his act together and be part of the team all season and into the postseason. The evidence is mounting that will not happen, so the Yankees could either double down and keep him at the deadline, or trade him and get someone more likely to contribute to a championship.

Aaron Hicks isn’t going anywhere. The Yankees aren’t going to designate him for assignment with three years remaining on his contract (like it or not, his leash is a lot longer than the first two months after wrist surgery) and those three years make a trade complicated. A Hicks trade is more likely in the offseason, when the Yankees will either have to attach a prospect(s) to salary dump him or include him as a salary offset in a larger deal. At the deadline? I can’t see it.

Among the non-core guys, it’s really just a few spare parts who could get moved, with Wandy Peralta and his $2.15M salary a Cessa-esque dump candidate to make the whatever luxury tax plan work. Andujar, Matt Carpenter, Marwin Gonzalez, and Tim Locastro aren’t fetching anything, and Kyle Higashioka is safe at least until Ben Rortvedt gets healthy, if not even beyond that.

The Yankees don’t want to trade Gallo but he might force their hand. He would be the most significant MLB player the Yankees have traded away at the deadline since the 2016 sell off. Otherwise I wouldn’t expect anything more than spare part moves. It is not in this team’s DNA to undergo a facelift at the deadline unless absolutely necessary, and it is not necessary this year (at least not right now it isn’t).

Untouchables?

Brian Cashman likes to say no player is untouchable, but some are more touchable than others. Even with his less than stellar year, Anthony Volpe is the closest thing to an untouchable in the farm system. He’s not completely off-limits, but unless the Nationals put Juan Soto on the table, Volpe’s probably staying put. That’s the kinda player it will take for the Yankees to part with him.

Jasson Dominguez is a notch below Volpe on the “not untouchable but barely touchable” scale, and I think Oswald Peraza is available. He’s projects more as a good regular than an All-Star, and in a system deep with middle infielders, the close to MLB ready shortstop is a great trade chip. Parting with Volpe and/or Dominguez would require a blockbuster. The Yankees won’t give Peraza away, but I think they’d move him.

Final option year

The Yankees have several notable prospects and players in their final minor league option year, meaning they must stick on the MLB roster or go through waivers next season. It’s tough to see some of them sticking with the Yankees in 2023, making them trade candidates. Here are the guys in their final option year, listed alphabetically.

Miguel Andujar: With his trade value down and the Yankees having to hedge against Josh Donaldson and Giancarlo Stanton getting hurt, it seems to me Andujar has more value to the Yankees as a depth piece than anything he can realistically bring back in a trade. He’s obviously available, but this seems like a “keep him and figure it out in the offseason” situation.

Estevan Florial: The Yankees like Florial (you can see a path to him taking over as the fourth outfielder next season) but not nearly enough to make him off-limits in trade talks. His availability will depend on what else the Yankees do at the deadline. If they address their outfield and add more certainty, they can more easily part with Florial and not sweat needing him as depth (too much).

Deivi Garcia: Having another disaster season in Triple-A (10.38 ERA and 7.71 FIP), and now he’s on the injured list. No official word on the injury, though Conor Foley says Garcia exited his last start with numbness in his fingers. Hard to believe there’s value here as anything other than a throw-in as the third or fourth piece in a trade. Sucks.

Luis Gil: Injured players can be traded and Gil’s an easy piece to give up, right? He’s not going to help this season or most of next season. Chances are we won’t see Gil fully healthy and ready to contribute to the Yankees until 2024, when Stanton and Gerrit Cole (and Aaron Judge should he re-sign) are entering their mid-30s. Trading Gil for MLB help must be on the table. The question is what will other teams give up for him?

Luis Medina: I think there’s a pretty good chance Medina is traded at the deadline. He’s having a good but not dominant season back in Double-A (so a typical Medina season, basically) and it’s hard to see him fitting with the 2023 Yankees. I’m sure there’s a rebuilding club willing to roll the dice on his live arm. Medina may not be enough to headline a package for a difference-making big leaguer, but he can be part of a package.

Rule 5 Draft eligibles

The Yankees made three significant trades at the deadline last year and used it as an opportunity to clear out their looming 40-man roster logjam. Six of the 10 prospects they traded away were going to have to be added to the 40-man after the season. The Yankees weren’t going to add them all and they didn’t want to risk losing them for nothing, so they traded them.

Bet on the Yankees doing something similar this year, even if it means making small trades for prospects who are still years away from Rule 5 Draft eligibility. They’re not going to let these guys leave for nothing. Here are the notable prospects who have to be added to the 40-man roster after the season and thus could find themselves on the trade block, listed alphabetically.

LHP Edgar Barclay: The little lefty just keeps getting outs (1.48 ERA and 2.26 FIP in High-A) and I’m not sure there will be 40-man roster space for him after the season. Chances are at least one team will be willing to give him a look as the last guy in the bullpen as a Rule 5 Draft pick next year. The 2019 15th rounder was a Not Top 30 Prospect coming into the season. He’s found money and can be a useful trade chip.

C Josh Breaux: Breaux was Rule 5 Draft eligible this past offseason, but the Rule 5 Draft was canceled, so he remains in the organization as a non-40-man player. The sub-.300 OBP in Double-A is an eyesore, but quality catchers are really hard to find. I could see a team having interest in his power/arm strength combo.

OF Anthony Garcia: I gotta think the Yankees will push Garcia in trade talks. There’s no room on the 40-man for a Single-A first base/DH type no matter how great the exit velocity. Garcia’s numbers with Low-A Tampa look like the good version of Joey Gallo: .207/.385/.444 (145 wRC+) with 10 homers, 39.1% strikeouts, and 21.8% walks in 41 games. I can’t imagine Garcia would stick all next season as a Rule 5 Draft pick. Still, the Yankees might want to be proactive and move him now.

C Antonio Gomez: Gomez is having a tough go of it with Low-A Tampa (.200/.301/.300 and 81 wRC+) and I don’t think the Yankees are at risk of losing him (permanently) in the Rule 5 Draft this coming offseason. A trade candidate for sure, but not a guy who has to be traded at the deadline because you’re definitely going to lose him in the offseason.

OF Brandon Lockridge: Lockridge has been a “good but not top 30 good” prospect for a few years now, though he’s struggling while repeating Double-A (.239/.303/.371 and 86 wRC+). Had the Rule 5 Draft not been canceled this past offseason, Lockridge might have been selected and gotten a chance to compete for a fourth outfielder’s job somewhere. He might be destined to be the next Trey Amburgey, the guy who always gets mentioned as a Rule 5 Draft/call up candidate but is never really a big league factor. If another team wants Lockridge, the Yankees will trade him without hesitation.

RHP Matt Sauer: Sauer is getting better as he gets further away from Tommy John surgery (3.43 ERA and 3.28 FIP in 44.2 High-A innings), though he’s not dominating, and he’s probably not doing enough to land a 40-man spot after the season. A definite trade candidate.

C Anthony Seigler: Is his early season breakout enough to make him an in-demand trade piece? Or enough to convince the Yankees to put him on the 40-man after the season? My hunch is Seigler is the position player version of Glenn Otto. Otto was talented but battled injuries for a long time, then he managed to stay healthy last year, so the Yankees traded him before he could get hurt again. Seigler may have played his way into trade chip status.

LHP T.J. Sikkema: Healthy now and actually pitching in games for the first time since 2019. Reports indicate he looks good too. Like Seigler, I can see Sikkema as an Otto-esque trade candidate. “Wow, he’s healthy? Quick, trade him before he gets hurt again.”

SS Alex Vargas: Like Gomez, Vargas is having a tough year with Low-A Tampa (.180/.223/.299 and 50 wRC+), though he’s an electric athlete with loud enough tools that a rebuilding team might– might – take him in the Rule 5 Draft and stash him on their bench next season just to get him in the organization, similar to the Padres and Luis Torrens back in the day. A definite trade candidate.

RHP Randy Vasquez: With all due respect to Vasquez, the Yankees have about a dozen of these mid-90s fastball with a sweeper pitching prospects, making him expendable. It is an area of depth and contending teams should use their depth to address their weaknesses. Vasquez is a Grade-A piece of trade bait at the deadline.

LHP Ken Waldichuk and RHP Hayden Wesneski: These two are close to MLB ready and the next wave of pitching depth, which means a) they’re important to the Yankees, and b) their trade value is considerable. Think along the lines of Joe Ryan, who was the main piece the Rays sent to the Twins for Nelson Cruz last year. I don’t think the Yankees want to trade either guy, but I don’t think they’re off-limits either. The Yankees are pretty good at churning out arms now.

Others like lefty Matt Krook and righties Jhony Brito, Sean Boyle, Juan Carela, Zach Greene, and Mitch Spence are big pitch shape guys who have fans in analytics departments. Last deadline the Yankees traded similar prospects in Janson Junk and Elvis Peguero (for Andrew Heaney). There’s always a demand for these kinda prospects and the Yankees will have no issue moving them.

Second tier prospects

Sometimes you have to trade a prospect because it’s the cost of doing business, not because there’s some underlying 40-man roster or minor league option consideration. Last deadline the Yankees traded Kevin Alcantara (for Anthony Rizzo) and Trevor Hauver (for Gallo) because that’s who they had to give up to get the deal done. There were no extenuating circumstances. Here, listed alphabetically, are the no strings attached prospects who could be trade candidates.

2B Cooper Bowman: Last year’s fourth rounder is a prospect to know and he’s walking a lot (17.8%) and stealing a lot (20-for-23) with High-A Hudson Valley. Bowman has some sneaky great exit velocity traits too. A good, solid prospect who is nowhere near untouchable. This year’s Hauver, basically.

OF Elijah Dunham: Dunham has a good chance to carve out a career as a lefty hitting platoon outfielder, if not more, and that high probability will appeal to potential trade partners. Seems like a great candidate to be the No. 2 piece in a trade for a big league contributor.

RHP Justin Lange: The Yankees got Lange from the Padres for Luke Voit two months ago and he’s been in Extended Spring Training since. Has his stock improved meaningfully? Seems unlikely, but the rookie ball season begins Monday, and if Lange comes out throwing 98 mph with a great new slider, then yeah, his outlook will change. Bit of a wait and see candidate.

OF Everson Pereira: Pereira was mentioned in trade rumors last summer (he was rumored to be part of the Gallo trade at one point) and I’m sure he’ll be mentioned in trade rumors again this summer. He’s having a strong season even if his power hasn’t shown up yet (.272/.373/.371 and 109 wRC+ in 40 High-A games). I don’t think the Yankees will actively push Pereira in trades, but he’s available.

RHP Clarke Schmidt and LHP JP Sears: Schmidt and Sears are two important pieces of Major League depth right now. The question is how much do the Yankees believe in Waldichuk and Wesneski (and Deivi and Krook)? Enough to count on them down the stretch and make Schmidt and/or Sears available in trades? I don’t think either goes, but never say never.

LHP Brock Selvidge: We’ll see which version of Selvidge shows up when the rookie ball season begins Monday. Will he be the version who was mentioned as a first round candidate going into last spring, or the version who labored and slipped to the third round? Either way, teams are trading for lower minors kids years away from the big leagues more often these days, making Selvidge a viable trade candidate, particularly if he’s the pre-2021 version of himself.

SS Trey Sweeney: Sweeney started the season well enough, then he missed 10 days with a minor lower body injury in late April, and he hasn’t hit much since: .188/.269/.323 (61 wRC+) in 24 High-A games since returning. We’ve seen the Yankees quickly move on from first round picks when they’re discouraged by the early returns (CJ Henry and Blake Rutherford, most notably). I don’t think they’re there with Sweeney, but maybe?

RHP Will Warren: Pump and dump? Last year’s eighth round pick is already in Double-A and I’m not sure anyone thought that was possible even two months ago. Could the Yankees look to sell high before Warren goes back to being eighth rounder-y? My sense is they really like him and want to keep him, but the MLB team is the priority, and there’s no reason to take him off the table.

RHP Beck Way: The numbers are ghastly (6.41 ERA and 4.79 FIP in 26.2 High-A innings) but the analytics crowd goes wild for Way because his stuff is so lively and the movement profiles are basically ideal. In a system deep in power arms, Way might hit the sweet spot between expendable to the Yankees and desirable to other teams, similar to Vasquez.

C Austin Wells: I think Wells is ahead of Peraza on the “prospects we’ll trade” list at this point, meaning he’s closer to untouchable. Not that he’s untouchable, of course. Wells has done nothing but mash in pro ball and these high probability “he’s gonna hit, though we’re not sure where he’s going to play” guys are always a hot commodity. All it takes is one team to believe in Wells at catcher for his trade value to jump.

I’m curious to see whether Sweeney’s name pops up in trade rumors in the coming weeks. If yes, it may indicate the Yankees have already soured on him the same way they quickly soured on Rutherford. I don’t think that’s the case though. Anyway, after all that, we can drop potential trade chips into four buckets:

• Prefer to trade: Breaux, Garcias (Deivi and Anthony), Lockridge, Medina, Sauer, Seigler, Sikkema, Vargas
• Available but not a must trade: Gil, Gomez, Pereira, Sears, Vasquez, Way
• Available but only at the right price: Peraza, Schmidt, Sweeney, Waldichuk, Warren, Wells, Wesneski
• Not going anywhere, realistically: Dominguez, Volpe

I don’t know what to make of the Gallo situation. Everything about his play says he should go and the Yankees should find someone else, but the Yankees love him, and they are stubborn enough to stick with him and hope he works out. The next two months will be critical. If he continues to stink, he’ll have to go. Anything resembling good play and I bet they keep him.

The Yankees don’t have an Ezequiel Duran this year, meaning a very good prospect at a position they are deep and who they might not be able to fit on the 40-man roster after the season. The organization’s depth chart made Duran a clear cut trade candidate last year. I guess the closest this year is Vasquez? Medina and Vasquez strike me as the two “name” prospects most likely to be moved at the deadline. Whether they can fetch something worthwhile is another matter.

4. 2022 draft prospect: Pennsylvania HS SS Cole Young. The 2022 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 25 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some will be players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

Pittsburgh has produced some high-end talent in recent years despite not being a traditional baseball hotbed. Former Yankee Neil Walker played most of his career with his hometown Pirates. Ian Happ is a Pittsburgh guy. Ditto Twins youngster Alex Kirilloff and Reds prospect Austin Hendrick, the No. 12 pick in the 2020 draft. Those guys were all first round picks and Young is expected to be one as well. Here are his current draft rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 21
• FanGraphs: No. 16
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 17
• MLB.com: No. 18

Young is a lefty bat who’s fared well against top competition in showcase events. That includes posting a 94 mph average exit velocity and 102 mph max in separate events. The average exit velocity in those events is usually in the low-80s, and only the best of the best of the best get into the triple digits. Here’s video and here’s a chunk of MLB.com’s free scouting report:

Young is the kind of player who needs to be seen more than once to be truly appreciated, as his feel for the game is greater than any jump off the page tools. That said, he does have impressive bat-to-ball skills from the left side of the plate. He doesn’t swing and miss much, doesn’t look overmatched against velocity and shows the ability to use the whole field. While he’s not a huge power guy, there is some impact here, with gap power … An above-average runner who is capable of taking the extra base, Young has enough range and savvy, to go along with an above-average arm, to stay at shortstop long-term.

Reports are split on the defense. FanGraphs calls Young a “a no-doubt shortstop with plus hands and actions” while Keith Law (subs.req’d) cautions “he’ll need some work to remain at shortstop.” The most relevant information is everyone believes Young has a chance to stay at shortstop long-term. This isn’t a kid who the consensus says is destined for another position.

Young turns 19 two weeks after the draft and older high schoolers have a poor track record in pro ball, though that hasn’t scared the Yankees away. They took Blake Rutherford and Anthony Seigler, two 19-year-old high schoolers, in the first round in recent years. Of course, neither has amounted to much, so maybe that isn’t a feather in the Yankees’ cap.

Bottom line, Young is a lefty hitter with bat-to-ball skills and some pop, as well as the defensive chops and athleticism to potentially stay at shortstop long-term. He’s also said to be a great makeup guy who works hard to get the most out of his ability. Players like that are never out of place in the first round. Whether Young is still on the board when the Yankees pick is far from certain.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Earlier this week NESN announced a standalone streaming service that will allow fans to watch Red Sox games in-market without a cable subscription. Josh Kosman says the YES Network is working on a similar product, though it’s not ready to launch yet. The NESN service runs $30 a month and I assume the YES Network service will be in the same neighborhood. It’s not cheap, but it beats the bloated price of cable if you’re looking to cut the cord. Good news for the cord cutters out there.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Daniel asks: What about pending FA outfielder David Peralta as a potential trade target? Statcast certainly checks out, and would cost ~$4m.

Yeah, Peralta’s a good left field trade target should the Yankees decide it’s time to move on from Joey Gallo. Trade for Peralta, 34, at the deadline and you’re only taking on about $2.4M in luxury tax obligation (it’s a little more than that in actual salary), and he’s a lefty bat with pull power and a history of controlling the strike zone (21.6% strikeouts and 10.8% walks). This works:

I haven’t watched enough Diamondbacks baseball to have an eye test opinion about Peralta’s defense, but the numbers love him, so it can’t be that bad, right? He’s hitting .247/.330/.474 (120 wRC+) this year after being exactly league average from 2019-21. If he reverts back to league average, at least he’s on the heavy side of the platoon and he plays good defense. The Yankees need to upgrade the Nos. 6-9 lineup spots and Peralta would do that.

Two concerns here. First, Peralta will need a platoon partner. He’s very bad against lefties and has been his entire career: .115/.258/.115 (22 wRC+) this year and .241/.305/.365 (77 wRC+) career. Aaron Hicks has historically been better against lefties than righties, so he might fit in that role (the Yankees would need a center fielder to replace him though).

And second, the Diamondbacks are kinda sorta in the postseason race. They are three games behind the last Wild Card spot and they only need to beat out the Giants and Braves to get it. I would strongly bet against that happening, but hey, crazier things have happened. Peralta is a D’Backs lifer who passed up free agency last time around to sign an extension. They might keep him and sign him to a new deal.

I like Peralta as a trade target and as long as you understand you’re getting a solid bottom half of the lineup guy and not a real impact player, I think y’all would like him as well. He’s a great story and easy to root for (former pitcher who converted to the outfield in independent ball and made it to the big leagues), and he’d be an upgrade over the current version of Gallo. It fits.

Rob asks: Do you see a Brandon Drury reunion in the works this summer?

Interesting! Drury, now 29, has been a productive super utility guy with the Mets and Reds the last two years, hitting .252/.307/.470 (112 wRC+) with 12 homers in 254 plate appearances. He doesn’t walk much at all (6.3% the last two years), but the 8.6% swinging strike rate is great, and the contact quality is good. This is why the Yankees traded for Drury in the first place:

Drury has played mostly second and third bases this year with a few innings at first and short. He also played some corner outfield last season. The defensive numbers say he’s average across the board on the infield and worse than that in the outfield, though he only has a handful of innings at several positions, so who really knows.

The Reds had a winning record in May (14-13) after starting 3-22, though they’re still well out of the postseason race, and Drury will be a free agent after the season. Availability shouldn’t be an issue. There’s no reason for Cincinnati to keep him. Drury is one of the most likely players to be traded at the deadline, I’d say.

The Yankees traded for Drury to be their starting third baseman once upon a time. He got hurt and Miguel Andujar took his job and that was that, though I never got the sense the Yankees were down on Drury. He lost his job due to an injury and they used him to upgrade their rotation (J.A. Happ trade). They believed in the bat and glove at one point. They still might all these years later.

Does Drury clear the “better than Marwin Gonzalez” bar? The last two years say yes on offense. How the Yankees feel about his ability to play short and the corner outfield might be the deciding factor. Gonzalez is a solid defender everywhere. Not amazing, but solid. Drury has some weak spots. Is the bat enough to overlook them? I think so, but I’m an offense over defense guy, and the Yankees are willing to go in the other direction these days.

Brian asks: Why is Boone continuing a play share at catcher? The framing stats clearly favor Trevino, he has been hot with the bat of late, and even when his bat cools off, he is a high contact guy so at least there is a chance of BABIP luck unlike Higgy who seemingly strikes out every AB.

If we remove the four games Kyle Higashioka missed while on the COVID list, he and Jose Trevino have each started 14 of the last 28 games. They were alternating starts for a bit right after Higashioka returned from the COVID list, and there are no personal catcher situations during those last 28 games:

• Gerrit Cole: 1 start with Higashioka and 4 starts with Trevino
• Nestor Cortes: 3 with Higashioka and 4 with Trevino
• Jordan Montgomery: 2 with Higashioka and 3 with Trevino
• Luis Severino: 3 with Higashioka and 1 with Trevino
• Jameson Taillon: 2 with Higashioka and 3 with Trevino
• Luis Gil and JP Sears: 2 with Higashioka

I guess maybe Trevino is Cole’s personal catcher now? And Higashioka is Severino’s? I don’t think we can say that definitively. Other than a few day game after a night game situations, there is no rhyme or reason to the catching workload share. Aaron Boone said “I view it as having a tandem right now” in April, and it has been a 50/50 tandem since.

Trevino should start. I laid out the case last week. I think Higashioka starts so much because the Yankees believe he’s better than he is. That is the simplest explanation. They think he’s an elite defender who will pop double-digit home runs with enough at-bats, and they’re giving him every opportunity to prove them right.

There also might be some element of “we’re winning a lot and the pitching’s been great, so why change things?” in play here too. That’s a terrible reason – the Yankees are winning, why do they need to replace Joey Gallo? – but I can buy it as a reason. Trevino should start. Better yet, the Yankees should trade for a legitimate starting catcher, someone who can (gasp!) hit and play good defense at the same time.

Mark asks: Is IKF any kind of upgrade on Andrew Velazquez? They seem so similar as all field/no hit shortstops to me.

They are similar as glove-first shortstops and it boils down into how much you believe in two months of defensive stats. I don’t at all, but if you do, they favor Velazquez quite a bit:

Kiner-Falefa (.266/.316/.304 and 84 wRC+) is a better hitter than Velazquez (.193/.243/.271 and 49 wRC+), though he’s not exactly must-see television when he’s in the box. Velazquez is all glove. Kiner-Falefa is some glove, some hit. Do you prefer one elite tool and nothing else, or a little of everything? There’s no right answer. It’s a matter of preference.

We can bring acquisition cost into this discussion. The Angels claimed Velazquez on waivers while the Yankees had to make a pretty significant trade to get Kiner-Falefa. Kiner-Falefa’s also making $4.7M compared to Velazquez’s league minimum-ish salary. It’s the Yankees, they’re not gonna sweat the money, but that trade? It ain’t great.

WAR says Velazquez (+0.4 fWAR and +0.9 bWAR) has been better than Kiner-Falefa (+0.4 fWAR and +0.6 bWAR) this season, though that difference across two months is nothing, especially when so much of it is tied up in defense. WAR isn’t that precise. Is Kiner-Falefa really an upgrade from Velazquez? I think so, but the fact this is a reasonable question is pretty bad!

(I’d rather have Kiner-Falefa. His defense is good enough even though it’s not Gold Glove caliber, and I can’t deal with total zeroes in the lineup full-time. Kiner-Falefa at least gives you a decent batting average, which is an undervalued skill in today’s game.)

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)