Quick thoughts prior to Opening Day 2022

A week later than originally scheduled and another day later than that, Opening Day has arrived. The Yankees will begin the 2022 season the same way they ended 2021: against the Red Sox. At least this time they’re at home and are guaranteed to play more games. Let’s check out the updated ZiPS projected AL East standings:

Hell yeah. Let’s get crazy. The AL East will likely go to the team that stays the healthiest and gets the most unexpected contributions, and there’s no reason that team can’t be the Yankees. We’re about six hours away from the Yankees being either 1-0 and on their way to the World Series, or 0-1 and on their way to trading Aaron Judge at the deadline. Hooray Opening Day. Hooray baseball. Here are a few quick thoughts before the season opener.

1. No Judge extension. Unless something changes in the next two hours or so, the Yankees and Aaron Judge will not have a long-term contract extension in place before first pitch. Maybe the Yankees will surprise us and they’ll announce Judge as “No. 99 and a Yankee for the next eight years” or something like that during baseline introductions, but I dunno.

“When it comes to the business side of it, there’s no secret. Freddie Freeman isn’t on the Braves anymore. There’s no loyalty in this game,” Anthony Rizzo told Brendan Kuty earlier this week. “ At the end of the day, it’s what’s going to make him and (Judge’s wife) Sam happy. And what his value is, and what his worth is is extremely high in this game. He’s a legitimate MVP candidate every single year. He knows that and he’s really good at this game. He’s really good about how he handles everything. I’ve admired him from afar for years. I’ve heard nothing but good things about him. I come over last year and meet him and it’s the total package. What he brings to this organization from my time being here is something I haven’t seen before.”

Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman report the Yankees have offered Judge the highest annual salary for a position player in franchise history, which is Alex Rodriguez at $27.5M. Jeff Passan says the total package is worth more than $225M. Eight years and $225M would be $28.1M per year. Here are the largest outfield contracts in terms of average annual value:

1. Mike Trout: $35.5M
2. Mookie Betts: $30.4M
3. Yoenis Cespedes: $27.5M
4. Kris Bryant: $26M
5. Bryce Harper: $25.4M

I can see Judge wanting to beat Mookie. Seven years and $30.5M per year is $213.5M total. Add in a signing bonus and an option buyout and they can easily push the total value up to $225M. That would be the fourth largest outfield contract in terms of total dollars, behind Trout ($426.5M), Harper ($330M), and Giancarlo Stanton ($325M).

Leaking the “highest paid position player” thing hours before Judge’s deadline feels like damage control. It makes Judge look like the unreasonable one should no deal be struck even though a lot of other context is missing (years, etc.). Teams do this all the time. Hell, MLB did it throughout the lockout with the MLBPA. It is standard procedure.

“I’ve got a game to focus on right now,” Judge said this morning, adding the two sides don’t even have a one-year contract in place for 2022. “So if it happens, it happens. If it doesn't, I'll see you guys after the game and we'll talk about that.”

Judge owes the Yankees nothing and they need him a lot more than he needs them. He makes them a fortune, and building marketing campaigns around Stanton or Gerrit Cole ain’t gonna hit the same way. A-Rod signed his contract 14 years ago. Giving Judge the highest annual salary for a position player in team history should be the expectation, not seen as the team going above and beyond.

Last week I said I think the likely outcome is Judge playing out 2022, then the Yankees re-signing him when he becomes a free agent this offseason. I still feel that way. I don’t think not signing Judge today is the end of the world. Disappointing, sure, but not a disaster. The Yankees can win any free agent bidding war when the want to, and I think they would to retain Judge after the season.

The issue is the Yankees passed on all those great free agents this offseason, several of whom are younger than Judge. If you’re not going to pay Judge, you have to pay one of them, and the Yankees didn’t, hurting their leverage. This isn’t about what Judge is worth. It’s about what he can get, and the Yankees spent the last few years saying they can't do anything because they have to sign him. It's time to pay up.

UPDATE: There will be no deal today. Brian Cashman confirmed the two sides could not come to an agreement, and he revealed the team's offer: seven years at $30.5M per year on top of a 2022 arbitration contract. The team filed at $17M, so the total package would have been eight years and $230.5 million.

The GM publicly revealing a rejected contract offer is rare, and it's a transparent attempt to make Judge look like the bad guy. Cashman said he did it because the numbers would just come out anyway, and that's true, but come on. The best case scenario is Cashman is trying to pressure Judge into signing the team's extension offer. The worst case is he's laying the groundwork for fans to blame Judge for leaving after the season.

"We're all disappointed right now that we can't be talking about a contract extension today. Not now, but hopefully later," Cashman said. "... Both sides would like to be here. I think Aaron Judge doesn't want to be anywhere but here, and we'd love to make that happen as well."

Like I said earlier, I don't think this is the end of the world. The two sides can always reach a deal later, and they seem motivated to stay together. That said, what a terrible finish to an offseason that was already underwhelming. We watched the Yankees pass on Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and many others because We Have To Pay Judge, and now they didn't even do that.

Cashman's contract is up after the season, which means the Yankees will have to work through that situation before moving on to Judge, unless ownership negotiates the contract directly. Steve Cohen is no doubt licking his chops over the possibility of stealing a star away from the Yankees, and the Giants have a ton of payroll flexibility (plus they are essentially Judge's hometown team). Other teams will be interested.

Bottom line, the Yankees have gotten way too comfortable with coming up short, and they came up short again here. Cashman can put all the numbers out there and try to deflect blame as much as he wants. In the end, the Yankees failed to lock up their best player after claiming he's been their top priority however many years now. 

2. The Gardy Party is over. Opening Day is here and Brett Gardner is not a New York Yankee. All winter I said I will need to see Gardner not on the Opening Day roster to believe he won’t be back, and here we are. This will be the first Opening Day game without Brett on the active roster since Chien-Ming Wang outdueled Roy Halladay in 2008.

“Love the player, love the person,” Aaron Boone told Brendan Kuty last month. “He’s been such a force in our room and really helped bring guys along and help guys transition into a leadership role. He’s a complete package. Really good player, spent his entire career in pinstripes. But just a tough, blue-collar, great teammate. Any time you lose that, you miss that kind of stuff.”

I don’t think Gardner deserved a farewell tour or anything like that, but I would have liked a more proper goodbye than him just not being with the Yankees anymore. Maybe he’ll throw out the first pitch at some point. With Marwin Gonzalez and Tim Locastro (and Estevan Florial) as the backup plans in the outfield, it ain’t hard to picture us sitting here in a few weeks wishing the Yankees had re-signed Brett.

Gardner went from being a walk-on in college to being a third round pick to spending 14 years in the big leagues, winning a World Series, and signing nearly $90M in contracts. Pretty cool. He is 17th on the franchise position player WAR leaderboard. Robbie Cano, David Robertson, Mark Melancon, and Ian Kennedy are the active players remaining from the 2009 Yankees, and Cano is the only regular. The other three were up and down guys.

Not only was Gardner one of the last remaining 2009 Yankees, he was one of the last remaining players who played in the old Yankee Stadium. He played 28 games in the old park after making his MLB debut in June 2008. I count 20 players on 2022 Opening Day rosters (active or injured list) who played in the old Yankee Stadium:

1. Robinson Cano: 284 games in the old Yankee Stadium, including postseason
2. David Robertson: 13
3. Miguel Cabrera: 9
4. Evan Longoria: 6
5. Zack Greinke: 4
6. Ian Kennedy: 4
7. Jed Lowrie: 4
8. Kurt Suzuki: 4
9. Tyler Clippard: 3
10. Nelson Cruz: 3
11. Oliver Perez: 3 (he made the Diamondbacks’ Opening Day roster)
12. Albert Pujols: 3
13. Joey Votto: 3
14. Darren O’Day: 2 (he made the Braves)
15. Joe Smith: 2
16. Justin Verlander: 2
17. Johnny Cueto: 1
18. Rich Hill: 1
19. David Price: 1
20. Anibal Sanchez: 1 (he made the Nationals)

Ervin Santana and Scott Kazmir made comebacks last season, and if they come back again this year, they’ll add to the list. Otherwise that’s it. Only 20 current players played in the old Yankee Stadium. A few of those guys are signed beyond 2022, but it feels like everyone on the list could retire (or be forced into retirement) after this year. Will that list be even 10 names long next year?

With Gardner gone, the longest tenured Yankee in the organization is Kyle Higashioka (drafted in 2008) and the longest tenured Yankee on the big league roster is Luis Severino (debuted in Aug. 2015). If you count continuous MLB service only, it’s Aaron Hicks. He was on the 2016 Opening Day roster. So was Severino, but he got sent to the minors later that year.

I will miss Gardner. He was a good Yankee for a long time and occasionally great, and he was worth a roster spot even in his down offensive years because he contributed so much in the field and on the bases. I’m getting old, man. Feels like just yesterday we launched RAB and tracked Gardner (and Kennedy, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, etc.) through the minors.

3. Overall thoughts heading into 2022. We ran our predictions at CBS this week (standings and awards) and I have the Yankees at third place in the AL East, and a Wild Card team. I think they’re closer to fourth place than second. They left a lot of wins on the table this offseason, wins that would’ve cost only money, and in Carlos Correa’s case, not even a long-term contract.

The middle of the lineup should be a strength. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are “put the team on their back” caliber hitters, and there are indications Josh Donaldson can still be that kinda guy too. I see Joey Gallo as a higher end complementary player more than a centerpiece (and Anthony Rizzo a notch below that), and the Yankees don’t need him to be a centerpiece.

I feel okay about the pitching. I wish the Yankees had less injury risk in the rotation, though prioritizing upside over reliability is intentional (it extends to their Triple-A depth too). It’s not often a team wins the World Series with a collection of innings eating No. 3 starters. The Yankees are clearly willing to assume injury risk to get starters with the talent to be real difference makers.

The infield defense is much improved. I mean, it would be hard to be worse than it was last year. I’m looking forward to seeing Isiah Kiner-Falefa on an everyday basis just to find out how good he actually is at short. The numbers were split on his glove last season (+10 DRS and -7 OAA), and the Gold Glove reputation comes from a 60-game season at third base. Eh. Ehhh.

Donaldson is sure-handed and Rizzo will save the other infielders errors. Also, Gallo in left will help a lot. Somehow Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier started 67 games in left field last year. The Yankees had to improve their defense at basically every position other than right field, and I think they mostly accomplished that. How much it helps in the standings remains to be seen.

You never really know with bullpens, but I think the current group is as good and as deep as any bullpen the Yankees have had in recent memory, even without Zack Britton. We’re gonna see guys like Miguel Castro and Wandy Peralta throw mop up innings because they’re that far down the depth chart. I feel really good about this bullpen going into the season. Hopefully it holds up.

On the flip side, unless Aaron Hicks and either DJ LeMahieu or (and/or) Gleyber Torres bounce back in a meaningful way, the Yankees have a chance to be bad – season underminingly bad – up the middle. Just compare them to the other AL East contenders:

The Yankees have what, the fourth best catcher, the fourth best shortstop, the third best second baseman, and maybe the third best center fielder? If things go right the Yankees could have the best second baseman and the second best center fielder, but still the fourth best catcher and the fourth best shortstop. It ain’t great. They leave a lot to be desired up the middle.

The “we don’t need our catchers to hit, just frame pitches” thing is right out of 2010. Teams did that when they first discovered framing (the Yankees did it with Chris Stewart). Maybe the spring home run binge is a sign of things to come, but Higashioka will play 2022 at the same age Brian McCann was the year he lost his job to Gary Sanchez. He ain’t young. Turning a backup catcher into a starter often leads to regret.

The Yankees are so good at the corners and at DH that they should be able to overcome being weak up the middle during the 162-game season. If Judge and/or Stanton get hurt, or Donaldson starts to show his age, or something happens to Gerrit Cole, then the jig is up. Few teams can survive losing their best players for extended stretches. The 2022 Yankees are no different.

I think it’s fair to say the Yankees lack breakout candidates. It’s Kiner-Falefa and his new Justin Turner inspired hitting mechanics, and that’s about it. They’re counting on rebound candidates, a few of whom are several years removed from their last impact season, and it gives off a 2005-08 vibe. The Yankees are trying to remain relevant more than assert dominance, and it feels like this is intentional. The standard clearly is no longer excellence.

The middle of the lineup has a chance to be devastating, the rotation has real upside, the bullpen is stacked, and the defense is improved. If it goes right, there’s World Series upside. I think the most likely outcome is a similar win total as last year, but a more well-rounded and consistent team (i.e. no 13-game winning streaks followed by seven-game losing streaks).

At the same time, the Yankees also have injury risk in a few too many places, a bottom of the lineup that will kill rally after rally, a bad manager, and management that seems uncommitted to doing anything more than being just good enough to get to the postseason. It starts with ownership but it applies to the front office too. Brian Cashman & Co. aren’t blameless.

I think the Yankees are better than last season. I also think the roster lacks the upside the Blue Jays have in spades, and I think they lack the depth and ability to maximize talent like the Rays. The Yankees have a knack for underperforming their talent. Until that changes, their ceiling will be the same as the last few years: good, but not good enough.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Gleyber Torres is not in the Opening Day lineup. Someone had to sit and it’s Torres. I have no problem with it, though I’d be lying if I said I weren’t a tiny little bit worried Aaron Boone and the Yankees are about to Clint Frazier the heck out of Gleyber … Turns out there’s a taxi squad this season. I believe (but am not 100% sure) the rules are the same as last year: teams can take up to five extra players on road trips, and if they take the maximum five, one must be a catcher. Last year teams could keep a catcher on the taxi squad permanently, even during homestands. The Yankees did it with Kellin Deglan, though that was because bullpen catcher Radley Haddad broke his arm. Deglan essentially filled in as the bullpen catcher. Not sure the Yankees will carry a permanent taxi squad catcher this year. I guess we’ll find out. Either way, taxi squads are back. They’re a thing again … And finally, just some roster housekeeping: Jeisson Rosario was indeed designated for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot for Marwin Gonzalez. Rosario was on Double-A Somerset’s Opening Day roster. If he clears waivers, he’ll report there as a non-40-man roster player. If he doesn’t, then someone else will take the roster spot.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)