June 14th, 2021: Severino, Pitching, Judge, Britton, D’Backs, Voit

The Yankees are 66-59 in 125 games dating back to last season, which is an 86-win pace in a 162-game season. They have luxury taxed and galaxy brained their way into an 86-win roster after back-to-back 100-win seasons. I’d be impressed if I wasn’t annoyed. Here are Tuesday morning’s thoughts Monday night because it’s an off-day, and there’s no reason to wait around to hit publish.

1. Weekend thoughts. The 2021 Yankees are mediocrity defined. They’re 33-32 with a -7 run differential, and with the pitching coming back to Earth, they’re doing nothing at a contender’s level. They don’t hit well enough, they don’t pitch well enough, and they don’t run the bases or play defense well enough. Also, attention to detail and organizational urgency are nonexistent.

“We’ve got to find a way to get better. We’re gonna find out what kind of character we’re made of. We’re clearly in the midst of incredibly tough times. We’ve faced it this season and we’re gonna find out if we’re the team we think we are,” Aaron Boone told Dan Martin on Sunday. “It starts with me setting the tone and setting the culture here. Hopefully we’re putting them in a good position to go out and perform at the highest level. We have not done that well enough.”

The Yankees have not responded well to adversity the last two years, and anything that could be a galvanizing moment is followed by a flop. DJ LeMahieu’s home run Saturday had “biggest hit of the season” potential, yet the Yankees lost anyway. Will that change now? It could, but I’m not getting my hopes up. Some thoughts on recent developments.

Severino’s setback

It’s not a setback, technically. It’s a new injury. Luis Severino exited Saturday’s rehab start with High-A Hudson Valley, his second rehab start since Tommy John surgery, with a right groin injury. He went for an MRI yesterday and was evaluated further today. We should get an update on Severino’s outlook tomorrow. Here’s the injury (GIF via Robert Pimpsner):

“It’s just frustrating for everyone,” Boone told Bryan Hoch over the weekend. “We know how hard Sevy has worked, what a long road to get to this point. Hopefully it’s not something that is too big a setback, but we won’t know until later.”

The good news is Severino’s arm and surgically repaired elbow are fine. That’s the No. 1 worry. The bad news is, barring a miracle, this is going to delay Severino’s return to the Yankees, and maybe significantly. He had to be helped off the field (Severino couldn’t put any weight on his right leg) so it didn’t look like a “he’ll be back out there next week,” injury.

Counting on a guy coming back from Tommy John surgery to make an impact is always dicey, but with a pitcher as talented as Severino, you take your chances. The pitching has been pretty sketchy the last few weeks and, at a minimum, Severino would’ve given the Yankees another option to pick up innings. Now they’ll have to lean on others to do that.

The Yankees need to add pitching prior to the trade deadline. If it wasn’t clear before, it certainly is now, after Severino’s injury. Getting pitching is easier said than done (no one will want to part with arms with workloads climbing following the weirdness of last year), but that’s where the Yankees find themselves. At least Severino’s arm is okay. It’s just a bummer his return will now be delayed who knows how long. The Yankees need him.

Pitching regression

The regression monster has come for the pitching staff. The Yankees stayed afloat earlier this year because the pitching picked up a dormant offense, though that level of run prevention was never going to last all year simply because a low-3.00s ERA in Yankee Stadium and the AL East just isn’t gonna happen. The return to Earth has arrived. The trend is noticeable:

The Yankees outperformed their FIP on a teamwide level for a good 15 games there, then their ERA caught up in a hurry. They’ve allowed 59 runs in their last nine games after allowing 59 runs in their previous 17 games. They’ve allowed 5+ runs in eight of their last nine games after allowing 5+ runs eight times in their previous 42 games. Some quick numbers:

• Nine games since June 3rd: .296/.337/.463 with 19.3 K% and 5.2 BB%
• Nine games prior to June 3rd: .209/.299/.362 with 21.6 K% and 10.4 BB%

For reference, Trea Turner is hitting .299/.346/.462 this year, so Yankees pitchers have turned every hitter they’ve faced the last nine games into a slightly less on-basey version of one of the best players in the game. Like I said, they’ve allowed 5+ runs eight times in their last nine games after doing it only eight times in their previous 42 games. Yeesh.

What’s so special about June 3rd? June 3rd is the day Gerrit Cole showed up with reduced spin rates against the Rays, when word of MLB’s impending crackdown on foreign substances began to spread. Since then 63% of pitchers have shown reduced spin (according to Travis Sawchik), and offense around the league is up since that date. Here are the league-wide numbers:

• June 3rd to June 13th (11 days): .246/.318/.418 with 23.4 K% and 8.4 BB%
• May 23rd to June 2nd (11 days): .231/.308/.388 with 24.3 K% and 9.1 BB%

Hmmm. HMMM. We’re only talking 11 days here, so maybe the uptick in offense and the drop in spin is a coincidence (offense always goes up in June anyway). On a team level, the sample is even less reliable given the difference in competition, ballparks, etc. We’re in the very early days of the foreign substance reckoning. The early numbers make you go “huh” though.

As for the Yankees, the pitching has been pretty terrible the last nine games, with Mike King laboring through two starts and Jameson Taillon and Domingo German getting blasted over the weekend. The offense has been better, though I’m not going to read too much into three games against the Twins and a few innings against the Phillies bullpen. The pitching was great earlier this year. Now it’s not, and the Yankees are in a tailspin.

Judge’s back spasms

Last week Aaron Judge played three straight days in the field for the first time in a month. All it took was a three-game series bookended by off-days and the mounting pressure of a season circling the drain. And a day later Judge woke up with back spasms, so that’s going great. He played through them Saturday but had to sit out Sunday.

“He woke up (Saturday) pretty sore,” Boone told Martin. “He was able to get through the game, but he struggled to get his real good swing off. He was still pretty sore (Sunday) morning.”

With Judge out of the lineup Sunday, Rougned Odor batted third, and I am choosing to believe it was a cry for help from Boone rather than something he did because he believes it gave the Yankees the best chance to win. If there were ever a game to say “go stand in right field for six innings, Giancarlo,” that was it. The lineup without Judge and Stanton is grim.

The Yankees have to be careful with Judge because he is way too important to this team, so sitting him out a day with back spasms is smart. I’m mostly just annoyed about, well, everything, and I feel like complaining. The Yankees have earned it. Hopefully the back spasms are a one-time thing and Judge will be good to go for the series opener in Buffalo tomorrow.

Britton returns

Welcome back, Zack Britton. He was activated Saturday and pitched a 1-2-3 inning with a pop up, a ground ball, and a strikeout later that day. Britton’s sinker velocity was down noticeably …

… though I’m not worried about that. He didn’t pitch at all in Spring Training and only made five minor league rehab appearances (4.1 innings). Britton’s still building arm strength and I expect him to regain those missing 2-4 mph in time. He’s not coming back from a ligament or tendon or muscle injury. It was just a bone chip. The velocity should return soon enough.

“I was definitely nervous. It’s been a while since I pitched in front of a packed house. It was good to get one out of the way,” Britton told Martin about his season debut. “It made a lot of sense for me if (I had surgery when I did and) I returned and I could pitch normally with no break in September. I hope to be strong into September and into the playoffs.”

The next hurdle is pitching back-to-back days, something Britton didn’t do during rehab, and it might be a little bit until the Yankees ask him to do that. That’s fine. The Yankees have the horses to handle high-leverage innings in the meantime, and there’s no reason to rush him. It’s good to have Britton back though. He’s a difference-making reliever and the Yankees need all the help they can get.

Postseason odds update

The season is 65 games old and the Yankees are already completely out of the AL East race. I mean, no, not really. They have enough intradivision games remaining to make a run at the division title, but I have no reason to believe this team can be nine games better than the Rays moving forward, to say nothing of the Blue Jays and Red Sox. This is grim:

Current records indicate it will take 93 wins to qualify for the postseason. From 2017-19, it took 93 wins on average to qualify for the postseason in the American League, so 93 wins this year tracks. The Yankees would have to go 60-37 in their final 97 games to reach 93 wins. That’s a 100-win pace from here on out. That feels like a lot to ask.

FanGraphs has their postseason odds down to 44.0%. They were 91.3% on Opening Day and 90.0% as recently as May 23rd. The White Sox (92.3%), Astros (77.6%), Rays (76.6%), Red Sox (59.0%) Athletics (60.4%), and Blue Jays (46.4%) all have better postseason odds than the Yankees. Only five teams make the postseason, you know. The odds, they’re not so good.

At this point I’m more worried about the winning season streak ending than I am missing the postseason. If the Yankees make the postseason, they’ll probably just lose to a better, more well-rounded team. The winning season streak though? It dates back to 1992 and is cool as hell. I appreciate the Yankees never being truly bad. This, right now, is as bad as it's been at any point in the last two decades. We’re spoiled. I hope the winning season streak survives 2021.

“Up to this point, we have not played as consistently as we would like,” Brett Gardner told Hoch over the weekend. “But I still love the group of guys we have in that room. I think we're capable of more than we've showed up to this point.”

2. Potential trade partner: Arizona Diamondbacks. Wow are the D’Backs bad. They have baseball’s worst record at 20-46, and they’ve lost 33 of their last 38 games (!). Remember Madison Bumgarner’s seven-inning no-hitter? That was April 25th, and Arizona hasn’t won a road game since. Their 19-game road losing streak is the fourth longest in history.

Given their record, and the fact they’re stuck in a division with the Dodgers and Padres, it makes sense for the D’Backs to sell at the deadline. I’ve heard secondhand that a rebuild is imminent, and Robert Murray reports Arizona has already let teams know certain players are available. When you’re this bad in a division that good, it only makes sense to sell.

The D’Backs are a strict budget team and getting them to eat salary to help with the luxury tax plan may not be easy. They dumped Robbie Ray at the deadline last year for a reliever (Travis Bergen) they designated for assignment over the winter simply because they wanted to get out of one month of Ray’s salary (about $1.6M). The cheapness is strong with this team.

The Yankees have 97 games remaining, they have Cy Young (Gerrit Cole) and MVP (Aaron Judge) candidates, and they have the resources to get just about anything they need. They should be aggressive prior to the trade deadline (the sooner the better), and the D’Backs are an obvious seller. I bet they’re willing to talk turkey right now. Let’s look over their roster.

SS Nick Ahmed

2021 stats: .220/.279/.319 (66 wRC+) with 1 HR in 198 PA

Contract status: $7.5M in 2021 plus $17.5M from 2022-23 ($8.125M luxury tax hit)

The skinny: Thanks to the rocket ball, Ahmed slugged 35 home runs from 2018-19, though his career high is a 96 wRC+ during the 60-game season last year. Eh. Ahmed is a great defensive shortstop who would improve the Yankees’ infield defense, and they’ve maybe had interest in him in the past. That was a long time ago now, though perhaps the interest lingers.

I think the contract is a deal breaker. Why tie yourself to a 31-year-old with a light bat through 2023 when the mother of all free agent shortstop classes is on the horizon? I’m sure the D’Backs would love to unload Ahmed with top shortstop prospect Geraldo Perdomo knocking on the door. I don’t see him as a fit for the Yankees though. Not when he’s signed long-term.

LHP Madison Bumgarner

2021 stats: 5.73 ERA (4.45 FIP) with 24.0 K% and 7.7 BB% in 59.2 innings

Contract status: $19M in 2021 plus $60M from 2022-24 ($17M luxury tax hit)

The skinny: Since taking a discount to be close to his home (and side hustle) in Phoenix, the 31-year-old Bumgarner has posted a 6.04 ERA (5.57 FIP) in 101.1 innings. This didn’t happen out of nowhere either. There were signs of decline toward the end of his tenure with the Giants. To be fair, Bumgarner has been better this year than last year (full-size image) …

… though he’s still pretty bad, and he’s currently on the injured list with a shoulder problem. In an alternate universe where the Yankees spend like crazy (I’m talking $300M+ payroll), taking on Bumgarner’s contract to lower the prospect cost for another player would make sense. In reality, there’s no way. I’m mentioning him here out of respect for all he’s accomplished. Pass.

IF Asdrubal Cabrera

2021 stats: .264/.366/.426 (118 wRC+) with 4 HR in 153 PA

Contract status: $1.75M in 2021

The skinny: Alright, let’s get to the players who might actually interest the Yankees. Cabrera, 35, is prime trade bait as a rental veteran on a bad team, though he’s primarily a first and third baseman at this point. He hasn’t played the middle infield since 2019, and he hasn’t played it regularly since 2018. You can put Cabrera at second in a pinch. Full-time though? Nah.

A switch-hitter who can play the corner infield spots and fake second base, and has experience as a role player on contending teams (2016 Mets, 2019 Nationals), would be an upgrade over Rougned Odor. The general rule of thumb is don’t pay for outlier performances, though Cabrera’s 118 wRC+ isn’t wildly out of line with his 107 wRC+ from 2017-20. This is who he is.

Last season rental role players Kevin Pillar and Jonathan Villar were traded for players to be named later that became top 20-ish team prospects, which is a pretty good benchmark for a Cabrera trade. Send them, I dunno, Josh Breaux or Matt Sauer, and call it a deal. Cabrera won’t turn the season around, but he’s an upgrade over what the Yankees have, namely Odor.

OF Kole Calhoun

2021 stats: .292/.333/.479 (121 wRC+) with 2 HR in 51 PA

Contract status: $8M in 2021 plus $9M club option ($2M buyout) for 2022 ($8M luxury tax hit)

The skinny: Calhoun had meniscus surgery in early May and is expected to return either later this month or early next month, so teams will get a few weeks to evaluate him before the trade deadline. The track record says he’s a slightly above-average hitter and an excellent defender in right field, though it’s fair to wonder whether the knee surgery will hurt his defense.

Calhoun is exclusively a right fielder. He has 34 career innings in left and center, all in spot duty spread across multiple years. That doesn’t mean the Yankees wouldn’t stick him in left field (they did it with Ichiro Suzuki), just that he hasn’t done it much. Ideally, they’d bring in a lefty hitting center fielder. Calhoun is a lefty hitter and a good enough one. The center field thing probably doesn’t work though, especially so soon after knee surgery.

IF Eduardo Escobar

2021 stats: .240/.287/.457 (101 wRC+) with 15 HR in 272 PA

Contract status: $7.5M in 2021 ($7M luxury tax hit)

The skinny: In Cabrera and Escobar, the D’Backs have two veteran switch-hitting infielders on expiring contracts to shop at the deadline. Cabrera is the on-base guy and Escobar is the power guy. Also, Escobar is the better defender at this point (not that he’s great or anything), and he can play second or third. He’s never played first base though.

I think the Yankees need a contact-oriented on-base guy more than they need another low average power hitter at this point, plus Cabrera is significantly cheaper, though there’s merit to bringing in Escobar. The Yankees are middle of the pack in homers and toward the bottom of the league in slugging, and the salary could keep the prospect cost down. Escobar as an Odor replacement works on the field. It’s a stretch under the luxury tax plan.

C Carson Kelly

2021 stats: .257/.382/.441 (127 wRC+) with 7 HR in 170 PA

Contract status: $1.7M in 2021 and arbitration-eligible from 2022-24

The skinny: Good catchers are hard to find and I’ve heard secondhand that Arizona is at least willing to listen to offers for Kelly, partly so they can put personal fave Daulton Varsho behind the plate. Kelly has hit .240/.340/.449 (105 wRC+) since coming over in the Paul Goldschmidt trade, and that includes a 70 wRC+ during the bastard 60-game season a year ago.

Kelly turns 27 next month and he’s a bat-first catcher whose defense is fine. It’s not great but it’s not awful either. The Yankees have long favored offense over defense behind the plate, so Kelly fits there. He doesn’t have the big exit velocities the Yankees like, though his barrel rate is good, and so are his under the hood Statcast numbers.

The Yankees could be in the market for a catcher this winter. An offseason trade or non-tender of Gary Sanchez is possible, Kyle Higashioka isn’t a starter, and none of the team’s top catching prospects (Breaux, Antonio Gomez, Anthony Seigler, Austin Wells) are particularly close to the big leagues. Kelly as the 2022-24 bridge to Gomez or Wells or whoever would be cool.

Good young catchers are always in demand and the Yankees would have to win a fierce bidding war to get Kelly. Teams don’t like to change starting catchers in-season, but for a guy like Kelly, I think most teams would do it. Still, this might be a move that works better in the offseason, both for the Yankees (no in-season catcher change) and D’Backs (more time to shop around).

Yes to Kelly in a vacuum. Easily. Whether the Yankees can win a bidding war is another matter, and it’s not set in stone that Arizona will trade him anyway. Keeping him and making him part of the next contending D’Backs team is absolutely a thing that could happen.

RHP Merrill Kelly

2021 stats: 5.14 ERA (4.12 FIP) with 21.2 K% and 6.5 BB% in 75.1 IP

Contract status: $4.25M in 2021 plus $5.25M club option (no buyout) for 2022 ($3.75M luxury tax hit)

The skinny: Kelly (no relation to Carson) is the kind of average-ish innings guy who gets dealt every deadline. He does nothing spectacularly (miss bats, limit hard contact, etc.), but he’s not bad at anything either. Kelly has a 101 ERA+ since returning from Korea three years ago and is the quintessential “keeps his team in the game” back-end starter, and he’s dirt cheap. That’s valuable.

Luis Severino hurt his groin over the weekend, Corey Kluber is early in his throwing program, and neither Mike King nor Jameson Taillon inspire much confidence, so yeah, the Yankees need another starter. I think they need someone (much) better than Kelly, though bringing him in as a No. 5 depth guy is worth considering. The more pitching, the better.

Considering he’s cheap (this year and next) and serviceable, I think there are going to be a few teams in on Kelly at the deadline. He strikes me as a prime “goes to the Athletics and puts up a 2.something ERA in that ballpark” guy. The Yankees could use Kelly for depth. They also should not be drawn into a bidding war, and should seek a better starter.

OF Tim Locastro

2021 stats: .194/.284/.243 (54 wRC+) with 1 HR in 116 PA

Contract status: $589,100 in 2021 and arbitration-eligible from 2022-24

The skinny: That’s former Yankee Tim Locastro to you. Very briefly a former Yankee. The Yankees acquired Locastro from the Dodgers in a minor trade in Nov. 2018, then sent him to the D’Backs in another minor trade in Jan. 2019, when they needed to open a 40-man roster spot for DJ LeMahieu. He’s spent the last two years as Arizona’s extra outfielder.

Locastro, 29 next month, managed a .367 OBP and a 101 wRC+ in 332 plate appearances from 2019-20. He rarely walks (6.5%) but has a knack for getting hit by pitches. Since 2018, he ranks tenth in hit-by-pitches and 412th in plate appearances. Locastro is very fast (third in average sprint speed) and he gets hit by a lot of pitches. That’s his game.

For the Yankees, Locastro would be a real fourth outfielder and an upgrade over Ryan LaMarre, and that’s about it. The cost shouldn’t be high because it’s a dime a dozen skill set (offer them a non-top-30 prospect like, say, sleeper righty Mitch Spence, and say take it or leave it), and he would fill a need. A very small depth upgrade, but an upgrade nonetheless.

CF/2B Ketel Marte

2021 stats: .356/.404/.548 (158 wRC+) with 4 HR in 114 PA

Contract status: $6M in 2021 plus $8M in 2022, $10M club option ($1M buyout) for 2023, and $12M club option ($1.5M buyout) for 2024 ($4.8M luxury tax hit)

The skinny: This is the guy. Marte is young (27) and excellent on both sides of the ball, and he’s super cheap too. He fits any budget, including the luxury tax plan. The Yankees badly need a hitter like this in the lineup. A switch-hitter with power who doesn’t strike out excessively and is historically above-average from both sides of the plate. Who doesn’t need a hitter like that?

Marte is also an excellent baserunner and a good defender at second and in center (he says he prefers to stay at one position rather than bounce around, and he’s been playing center this year). He’s Mookie Betts light, basically. Here are his 2019 Statcast numbers (Marte had a down 60-game season in 2020 and missed time with a hamstring injury this year).

Last year FanGraphs had Marte at No. 12 in their trade value series, right behind Wander Franco and a few spots ahead of Rafael Devers and Jose Ramirez. The D’Backs could (should) keep him and build around him. At the same time, Arizona has basically no chance at winning the NL West anytime soon, and the best way to add young talent is by trading Marte (they might even get someone who could one day be as good as Ketel Marte!)

The Yankees should pursue Marte aggressively given their needs in center field and in the lineup, and he’s a long-term buy too. The only prospect in the farm system worth hugging is an 18-year-old yet to play an official game, and isn't Jasson Dominguez's ceiling basically Ketel Marte? I think I could be talked into Dominguez for Marte. Definitely put everyone else on the table though. Deivi Garcia, Oswald Peraza, Anthony Volpe, everyone. Maybe they want Clint Frazier or Jordan Montgomery?

The D’Backs would be foolish not to listen to offers for Marte. They don’t have to trade him, but they owe it to themselves to listen. Given how good he is and how affordable he is, I have to think every single team will call. Even the rebuilding teams. I don’t know if the Yankees can win a bidding war, but they have to try. This is not someone to pursue half-heartedly.

OF David Peralta

2021 stats: .256/.315/.420 (99 wRC+) with 4 HR in 238 PA

Contract status: $7.5M in 2021 plus $7.5M in 2022 ($7.33M luxury tax hit)

The skinny: If nothing else, the 33-year-old Peralta is a great story. He started his career as a pitcher in the Cardinals system in the mid-2000s, converted to an outfielder during a four-year stint in various independent leagues, then made it to the big leagues in 2014. He’s signed over $25M in contracts since and is a career .288/.343/.470 (114 wRC+) hitter. Pretty cool.

Now that he’s entering his mid-30s, Peralta is slowing down at the plate, and is no longer a bona fide middle of the order guy. He’s more of a No. 6 or 7 hitter on a contender, and hey, that’s fine. The Yankees need a lefty bat with some thump and Peralta can provide it, and he can provide it while striking out less than the league average. The offense sorely lacks a guy like that.

Peralta passes the “better than Frazier and Miguel Andujar” test defensively in left field, and he posts the max exit velocities the Yankees value. He also has a reputation for being a Grade A clubhouse guy. The fact he’s under contract next year could be seen as a positive or a negative. I’d rather have the flexibility, though there’s an argument for wanting Peralta in 2022.

There aren’t many good reference point trades for Peralta, an average-ish corner bat signed for another season. It’s not a scarce enough skill set to justify giving up a top prospect, so maybe two mid-range prospects? Peralta wouldn’t solve the center field problem but he would diversify the lineup and be an upgrade in left field. He’s a fit, though not a perfect fit.

UTIL Josh Rojas

2021 stats: .257/.332/.460 (116 wRC+) with 9 HR in 228 PA

Contract status: $582,400 in 2021 plus pre-arbitration-eligible in 2022 and arbitration-eligible from 2023-26

The skinny: Coming up through the minors, the 26-year-old Rojas was billed as a potential super utility type, and that’s exactly what he’s become. He’s having an above-average season at the plate while playing every position except first base, center field, pitcher, and catcher. You can’t trust the defensive stats in this small a sample, though his reputation is good.

The exit velocities are okay and Rojas doesn’t chase out of the zone often, and that’s a solid foundation at the plate. A lefty hitter who grinds out at-bats and can play anywhere has a spot on any roster, and the Yankees could use him as a “tenth man” who plays frequently as others rest. And if Rojas plays his way into a full-time role, it would be easy to make room for him.

The Rangers gave up Pete Fairbanks, an oft-injured two-time Tommy John surgery guy, to get Nick Solak. Is there a Clarke Schmidt for Rojas trade to be made? Arizona wanted Schmidt a few years ago. Do they want him now though? I’d rather keep the versatile lefty hitter than trade him for a guy who can’t stay healthy, but that’s just me. Maybe the D’Backs really like Schmidt.

Rojas is utile enough and under control long enough that the D’Backs could easily keep him, and project him to be part of their next contending team. At the same time, he’s not someone you make off-limits prior to a rebuild either. Marte and (Carson) Kelly are the best Arizona has to offer. Rojas is next in line, I think. He’s not a difference-maker but he’s a damn useful player.

3. 2021 draft prospect: Florida HS RHP Andrew Painter. The 2021 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d) reports MLB has informed teams the draft will be 20 rounds, the minimum number allowed under last year’s March agreement. The Yankees hold the No. 20 pick. Here is our 2021 draft prospect coverage archive.

If nothing else, the 18-year-old Painter has an excellent pitcher’s name. He came out of the gate slowly this spring but has pitched well the last few weeks, and currently owns a 0.31 ERA with 91 strikeouts and 14 walks in 45.1 innings against pretty good competition in South Florida. Painter stood out in showcase events last summer and is committed to Florida.

MLB.com and Baseball America (subs. req’d) rank Painter as No. 18 and No. 19 prospect in the draft class, respectively. Here’s some video and here’s a snippet of MLB.com’s scouting report:

Painter delivers a legitimate four-pitch mix from a 6-foot-6 frame and has a very advanced feel for his gameplan on the mound. He typically sits in the 93-95 mph range and touches 96 with his fastball. He utilizes both a two- and four-seamer and likes to elevate to get swings and misses up in the zone. He throws both a 12-to-6 type curveball in the upper 70s and a mid-80s slider, and he flashed a potentially plus changeup over the summer.

Despite his size, Painter is very athletic on the mound and repeats his delivery extremely well, throwing all four pitches for strikes with a chance he’ll have plus control and command in the future. And while he’s already strong, there’s projection in his frame, and he could throw harder as he matures.

Baseball America’s scouting report says “it’s hard to find a high school pitcher who checks as many boxes as Painter,” and they call him “as close to the ideal version of a prep arm as you could design.” Baseball America (subs. req’d) and Jim Callis have the Yankees selecting Painter in recent mock drafts, though I read both as speculation rather than an informed projection.

Painter is a few inches taller, but his scouting report reminds me an awful lot of Jack Flaherty when he was coming out of high school. Flaherty had a deep arsenal with the potential for plus command, great athleticism, and good but not elite velocity. Once he got into pro ball, Flaherty picked up some velocity and became a total package ace. That’s the best case scenario.

The foreign substance crackdown may change things, but teams these days target pitchers with command, and try to help them add velocity and spin. That includes the Yankees. They’re trying it with Beck Way (last year’s fourth rounder), and the early returns with Ken Waldichuk and Hayden Wesneski are promising. Those guys were mid-round picks though, not first rounders.

Fairly or unfairly, there’s a bias against high school righties, and that’s why Painter is a projected late first round pick rather than a top 10 pick. By design, the Yankees have gone very heavy on position players in the early rounds the last few years, but you have to be flexible, and Painter’s upside would be hard to pass up when the alternative is a generic late first round bat.

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Jon Lieber. By request, this week’s random Yankee is a pitcher whose run of success as a Yankee was shorter than you may remember. Here’s the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Lieber and former Yankee Stan Bahnsen are the only Major Leaguers from Council Bluffs, Iowa. The Royals selected Lieber out of the University of Alabama in the second round of the 1992 draft, and one year later they sent him to the Pirates (along with former Yankee Dan Miceli) for closer Stan Belinda. That 1993 Royals team was the last winning Royals team until 2003.

After only 43 minor league starts, Lieber was summoned to the big leagues. The Pirates called him up in May 1994 and he had a 3.73 ERA in 17 starts and 108.2 innings the rest of the year. That earned him the Opening Day start in 1995. Lieber spent parts of five seasons with Pittsburgh, some good and some not so good, before being traded to the Cubs for Brant Brown* in Dec. 1999.

"We think he's a good replacement for us," Cubs GM Ed Lynch told Phil Rogers following the trade, referring to Lieber replacing free agent departure Mark Clark in the rotation. "We all know about ground balls at Wrigley Field. And he doesn't walk people. When the wind is blowing out at Wrigley Field, if you don't walk guys you stay away from three-run homers."

* Brown infamously dropped a fly ball for a walk-off error in late September that forced the Cubs to play a Game 163 tiebreaker against the Giants to decide the wildcard spot (video). “I don't know what I would have to do to make people get over it,” Brown told Rogers after the trade. Chicago won the tiebreaker game, then got swept by the Braves in the NLDS.

Lieber’s first two seasons in Chicago were good but not spectacular. He chewed up innings at a better than average rate (106 ERA+ in 454.1 innings from 1999-2000), then had his career year in 2001. Lieber went 20-4 with a 3.80 ERA in 232.1 innings that season, which earned him his only career All-Star Game selection as well as a fourth place finish in the Cy Young voting.

Although he managed a 3.70 ERA in 21 starts and 141 innings in 2002, Lieber was hampered by elbow trouble all season, and he eventually underwent Tommy John surgery in August. The Cubs declined his $6.25M club option after the season, and although the two sides had interest in a reunion, it never came together, and Lieber tested the open market.

"The reality about Tommy John surgery today is the success rate is extremely high, and pitchers come back as strong or stronger than ever," Lieber’s agent, Rex Gary, told the Associated Press that offseason. "He will pitch next year at some point in the second half. At some point, probably shortly thereafter, he will be as sharp and as strong as he's ever been."

The Yankees were very deep in starters at the time, with Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, and David Wells fronting a rotation that also included Jeff Weaver and eventually Jose Contreras as well. That said, Clemens, Pettitte, and Wells were all going to be free agents after 2003, so, with an eye on 2004, the Yankees inked Lieber to a two-year deal right before Spring Training.

"He's tremendously excited about the opportunity to pitch in meaningful games every time out, hopefully all year and in the playoffs,” Gary told the Associated Press. "He's ahead of what anybody had hoped at this point in time. He's doing great. I'd say there's a good chance that he will be pitching this year.''

The two-year contract guaranteed Lieber only $3.5M, but it could have swelled to $16.75M over three years through bonuses and a club option. Here’s the breakdown:

• 2003: $500,000 signing bonus and $300,000 salary (the league minimum at the time) with $750,000 in bonuses tied to days on the active roster
• 2004: $2.45M salary and $4.75M in bonuses tied to starts and innings
• 2005: $8M club option ($250,000 buyout)

As planned, Lieber spent 2003 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery in Tampa. He made three minor league rehab appearances late in the season, but was never added to the active MLB roster, not even as a token Sept. call up. The Yankees signed Lieber knowing he would be a non-factor in 2003 and that’s what he was.

“It was probably the most trying time in my career,” Lieber told Tyler Kepner in Spring Training 2004 about his rehab year. “I've never been in a situation like that. You're used to the habit of coming in, working out, breaking camp with the team, playing the season and going home to rest. Now it was, 'You've got to stay put.’”

The 2003-04 offseason brought a sea change to the rotation. Clemens, Pettitte, and Wells were all allowed to leave as free agents, and the Yankees replaced them with trades for Kevin Brown and Javy Vazquez. The plan was to have those two and Mussina lead the rotation as three veteran workhorses in 2004, with Contreras and Lieber holding down the back of the rotation.

“We're still going to be careful with him, but he's 100%,” Brian Cashman told Kepner about Lieber’s health going into Spring Training. “He's further ahead than most, if not all of the other pitchers right now.”

Lieber, then 34, pitched well early in Spring Training but went down with a groin injury in mid March that forced him to begin the season on what was then called the disabled list. “You start doing things your body's not accustomed to doing, maybe these things start to happen. The bottom line is, let's get it taken care of,” Lieber told Kepner about the injury.

Thanks to scheduled off-days and rainouts, the Yankees only needed their No. 5 starter twice in April 2004 (rookie Jorge De Paula and random Yankee Alex Graman made one spot start each), and Lieber joined the Yankees on May 1st. In his first MLB game in 639 days, Lieber held the Royals to three runs in seven innings, and recorded his first win since June 21st, 2002.

“That's what I normally do, just move the ball in and out. That's my philosophy: let my defense work behind me,” Lieber told Ron Dicker about his three-strikeout, 17-ground ball performance. “There were a lot of emotions going in the first inning. I was very nervous.”

Six days later the Mariners tagged Lieber for six runs in six innings, and three times in his next six starts he allowed at least six runs. There were flashes of greatness (seven innings with two runs or fewer four times), but after the Athletics hammered him for seven runs (six earned) in 4.1 innings on Aug. 3rd, Lieber had a 5.06 ERA. Opponents had hit .317/.333/.464 against him in 106.2 innings.

“He didn't get enough ground balls today, and that's where he needs to be,” then-manager Joe Torre told Kepner after Lieber was booed off the mound during the A’s start. “If they got six or seven ground balls through the hole, then you'd say it's bad luck. But he elevated balls too many times for him to feel good about it. No excuses. It just wasn't very good.”

Following that A’s start, Lieber went on a two-month run that earned him the No. 2 starter’s spot in the postseason rotation behind Mussina. He allowed two runs in eight innings against the Blue Jays on Aug. 8th, three runs in eight innings against the Mariners on Aug. 13th, and two earned runs in 6.2 innings against the Angels on Aug. 20th.

Lieber pitched to a 3.21 ERA and held opponents to a .276/.292/.406 batting line in his final 10 starts of the season. Eight times in those 10 starts he allowed three earned runs or fewer, and five times he allowed two earned runs or fewer. Six times he completed at least seven innings. Lieber finished 2004 with a 4.33 ERA (104 ERA+) in 27 starts and 176.2 innings.

"You'd rather not (treat it any differently), I think,” Torre told Kepner prior to Lieber’s start against the Twins, the Yankees’ likely ALDS opponent, on Sept. 29th. “We're certainly not going to try to camouflage anything. It's not like football or basketball, where you don't show them a play you're working on. I don't think you're going to do anything different than you would in May or June.”

Lieber allowed four runs (two earned) on 10 hits in 5.2 innings against Minnesota in his final regular season start, and despite that, Torre gave him the ball in Game 2 of the ALDS. Brown and Vazquez limped to the finish, and Lieber was simply the better option at the time. Lieber held the 92-win Twins to three runs in 6.2 innings in the eventual 12-inning Game 2 win*.

“When he walked off the mound, I went to take the ball from him and he says, ‘Can I keep it?’” Torre told Kepner about Lieber’s first career postseason appearance. "I said, 'Certainly, go ahead.' He was thrilled to be out there and he certainly responded to the pressure that goes with pitching a game here.”

* Lieber is a total afterthought in that wild game. Mariano Rivera blew the save in the eighth (video), the Twins took the lead in the top of the 12th (video), then Alex Rodriguez tied it (video) and Hideki Matsui won it (video) in the bottom half. Too bad there’s no video of Lieber.

The Yankees eliminated the Twins in four games -- Minnesota beat Mussina in Game 1 and they haven’t won a postseason game since -- and drew the rival Red Sox in the ALCS. Lieber again started Game 2 and he outpitched Pedro Martinez handily. Pedro allowed three runs in six innings. Lieber held the Red Sox to one run in seven innings (video).

“Since I was a boy, when I get taken out of a game, I try to get on and off the field, I don't know why. I'm not going to say I'm deaf to the whole situation, but you can hear what's going on,” Lieber told Kepner about his habit of jogging to the dugout following a pitching change, even while receiving a standing ovation. “I knew coming into this game what Pedro has done in the past in situations like this. So there was no room for error, and I think it showed."

Lieber gave the Yankees a 2-0 series lead. When he took the mound in Game 6, the Yankees were well on their way to blowing their 3-0 series lead. Boston won Game 4 in 12 innings and Game 5 in 14 innings. A four-run fourth inning, which included a three-run homer by random Yankee Mark Bellhorn, doomed Lieber and the Yankees in Game 6, the Bloody Sock game.

“There were a lot of things that didn’t fall our way. That’s the way it goes,” Torre told Ken Davidoff following Game 6. “... I guess it was supposed to come down to a Game 7. We’ll see what happens.”

The Yankees lost Game 7, and after the season, George Steinbrenner ordered a pitching staff overhaul with an emphasis on youth. "The priority is always to get better, and if you can get younger at the same time, that's optimal. But first and foremost, you want to get better,” Cashman told Kepner prior to the 2004 Winter Meetings in Anaheim.

After the season the Yankees and Lieber discussed a multi-year deal at a lower salary than his $8M club option, but couldn’t find common ground. The Yankees walked away. “It’s a risk. We tried to do (a multi-year deal), but I don’t think they believed we wouldn’t pick it up. They wanted to see if we were bluffing or not,” Cashman told George King after declining the option.

The emphasis on youth led the Yankees to Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright, two 29-year-olds. They also had interest in former Yankees first round pick Eric Milton, another 29-year-old. Lieber was a few months away from 35th birthday at the time, and he eventually signed a three-year deal worth $21M with the Phillies. The Yankees gave Wright the same contract.

"Jon will do a great job in Philly," Cashman told Kepner. “But for three years at those numbers, we wanted to focus more on the 29 to 32-year-olds in the free-agent market."

Pavano and Wright were free agent disasters (combined +2.4 WAR in 66 starts and three relief appearances in six contract seasons as Yankees) while Lieber gave the Phillies one good season in 2005 before battling injuries in 2006 and 2007. He threw 464.1 innings with a 4.55 ERA with Philadelphia (+3.0 WAR), and finished his career as a long reliever with the Cubs in 2008.

In his lone season with the Yankees, Lieber walked only 18 batters (two intentionally) in 176.2 innings. His 2.4% walk rate is second lowest in franchise history among pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title (David Wells had a 2.3% walk rate in 2003). By WAR, Lieber is the second best one-year pitcher in Yankees history.

1. Jack McDowell: +4.0 WAR in 1995
2. Jon Lieber: +2.4 WAR in 2004
3. Mike Torrez: +2.4 WAR in 1977
4. Bobo Newsom: +2.2 WAR in 1947
5. Mike Morgan: +2.0 WAR in 1982

There’s a lot of selection bias in play there (if you have a good year with a team, they tend to keep you around), and I guess Lieber is technically a two-year Yankee because he was in the organization in 2003, but you know what I mean. Letting Lieber walk wasn’t a terrible decision, though replacing him with Pavano and Wright made it look a lot worse than it was.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Only 18 days after being placed on the injured list with a Grade 2 oblique strain, Luke Voit started a minor league rehab assignment. He went 1-for-3 with a double (video) for Triple-A Scranton on Sunday. 18 days is a real quick turnaround for a Grade 2 oblique strain. Those often require months to heal. Aaron Boone told Erik Boland that Voit will “rehab for about a week,” so I’m guessing he’ll rejoin the Yankees following next Monday’s off-day. Hopefully he doesn’t have a setback and hits right away this time … MLB released the first All-Star Game voting update earlier today. Vlad Guerrero Jr. leads all players in votes. There are two phases to the voting. Phase 1 determines the top three finalists at each position, then the voting totals reset and Phase 2 picks the All-Star Game starter from those finalists. Here’s where the various Yankees sit in the first voting update:

• Gary Sanchez: 25,429 votes behind Martin Maldonado for third catcher spot
• Luke Voit: 85,405 votes behind Yuli Gurriel for third first base spot
• DJ LeMahieu: 26,860 votes up on Nick Madrigal for third second base spot
• Gleyber Torres: 99,208 votes behind Tim Anderson for third shortstop spot
• Gio Urshela: 91,709 votes behind Alex Bregman for third third base spot
• Aaron Judge: 392,911 votes up on Cedric Mullins for ninth outfield spot
• Giancarlo Stanton: 60,811 votes behind Yordan Alvarez for third DH spot

Judge has the second most votes among American League outfielders (he’s 168,055 votes behind Mike Trout) and is a lock to be among the nine outfield finalists. LeMahieu has a slim lead for a top three spot at second, though Madrigal just suffered a potential season-ending injury, which could cut into his votes. Whit Merrifield is next at second base and is 51,782 votes behind LeMahieu. The AL catching crop is terrible and Sanchez isn’t that far behind Maldonado. Gary’s been hot the last few weeks and could close that gap between now and June 24th, when Phase 1 of the voting ends. For now, there’s a decent chance Judge will be the only Yankee to make it to the next round of voting. Here’s the ballot … Two quick draft notes: Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein say the Yankees are believed to be the floor for Ole Miss RHP Gunnar Hoglund (my write-up), meaning they will take him at No. 20 if he’s available. Hoglund was a potential top 10 pick before having Tommy John surgery last month. I don’t think he makes it to the Yankees, but maybe. Also, they say the Yankees had someone scouting UC Santa Barbara RHP Michael McGreevy (my write-up) recently. McGreevy has a chance to be there at No. 20. Moreso than Hoglund, I think … And finally, Buster Olney has details on MLB’s foreign substance crackdown plan. MLB is expected to send teams a memo with their plans this week, with enforcement to begin about a week later, giving teams a few days to get their houses in order. Umpires will randomly check pitchers 8-10 times a game as they leave the mound. Olney hears MLB “(does) not want to find any violators of the foreign substance (rule),” because of course not. They would love nothing more than to sweep this entire thing under the rug and pretend they did not enable it. That won’t be possible though. At least not sweeping it under the rug. You can definitely forget about MLB admitting they were part of the problem though.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)