June 11th, 2021: Cole, Andujar, Prospects, Mailbag

Once again, the Yankees were unable to finish a sweep. At least this time they had a lead in the ninth inning rather than get blown out. Bad time for Aroldis Chapman’s worst ever outing, eh? The Yankees are 2-7 and have been outscored 52-30 when they have a chance to sweep this year. They’re on pace to go 85-77 with 99 games remaining. Here are today's thoughts as the Yankees enjoy a rare Friday off-day.

1. Cole’s spin. This whole thing is like a week old and I already have foreign substance fatigue. This is all playing out exactly like the Steroid Era. MLB looked the other way for decades, then when the league decided to do something, the players became the bad guys, and a whole lotta fans acted like it bothered them the entire time. We’ve all lived through all this before.

Anyway, earlier this week Gerrit Cole spoke to reporters for the first time since Josh Donaldson called him out for using foreign substances, a comment Donaldson later tried to walk back. “Since Gerrit pitched, there have been 12 or more guys already whose spin rates have drastically dropped in the last week. So it’s not just Gerrit,” Donaldson told Dan Martin.

For a guy who speaks so intelligently and enthusiastically about baseball, Cole’s answers to the sticky stuff questions were shockingly terrible. He sidestepped questions about Donaldson -- “I kinda felt it was a bit low-hanging fruit, but he's entitled to his opinion and to voice his opinion,” he said (video link) -- and clammed up when asked point blank whether he uses foreign substances.

"I don't quite know how to answer that, to be honest,” Cole said after a long, awkward pause (video link). “There are customs and practices that have been passed down from older players to younger players, from past generation players to this generation of players. I think there are some things that are certainly out of bounds in that regard, and I've stood pretty firm in terms of that … If MLB wants to legislate some more stuff, that's a conversation we can have because ultimately we should all be pulling in the same direction."

Not great! Did Cole and the Yankees (and Scott Boras) not see the “are you cheating?” gotcha question coming? He certainly didn’t seem prepared. Cole doesn’t owe us answers on anything, but the questions are going to be asked. At least he didn’t go all Rafael Palmeiro and categorically deny everything even though we all know he’s guilty.

“I hesitated on the specificity of the question because I just don’t think it’s the forum to discuss those kinds of things,” Cole told Bryan Hoch following Wednesday’s game, which is a pretty good attempt at cleaning up the mess. “There’s an appropriate time for players to discuss those things, and we’ll keep it to that forum.”

Cole could have gone about this four ways. One, he could have Palmeiroed it, which is the worst option. Lying always makes things worse. Two, he could have gone with a “no comment,” which is the safe move, but also one that would’ve made him sound guilty. Three, he could have done what he did, which is stumble through an answer that makes him sound even guiltier than he would have with a no comment.

And four, Cole could have admitted to it and gone on the offensive, which would have been amazing from a “some men just want to watch the world burn” perspective. “Yes, I use sticky stuff. So do dozens of others because MLB encourages it by not enforcing the rules. Foreign substances are commonplace and I’m just trying to keep up with my peers.” Something like that.

Cole went out Wednesday and held the Twins to two runs in six innings, and looked very much like Gerrit Cole. He struck out Donaldson twice -- “He’s a former MVP and a big cog in the lineup. Just the satisfaction of executing pitches in that spot and putting the team in a better position to win was enough,” Cole told Martin -- and kinda stared him down both times. It wasn’t a full blown Aroldis Chapman stare, but it was something we haven’t seen from Cole before.

Beyond the stare, it was obvious Cole was fired up. He hit 100 mph in the first inning for the first time since the 2019 postseason, and his 98.2 mph average fastball velocity was the highest in any start of his career. Actions speak louder than words and the velocity tells us Cole is pissed he’s become the face of the foreign substance saga. He was taking his anger out on the Twins and I am here for pissed off Gerrit Cole running through opposing lineups.

“I really don’t like it. I feel like 95% of the guys I’ve faced in the league have something going on,” Aaron Judge told Hoch about Donaldson calling out Cole. “It’s kind of one of those rules that I feel like hasn’t really been enforced or defined. We’ve all got a job to do, Cole’s got a job to do. Me as a hitter, I’ve got to step in the box no matter what’s going on or what people are using.”

If you were expecting Cole to drill Donaldson, you were disappointed, but I’m also not sure why you expected that in the first place. Michael Kay advocated for Cole hitting Donaldson on his radio show -- Kay later played the “I wasn’t advocating, I only said what I’d do” card, as if advocating and telling us what you approve of are different things -- and fortunately Cole is an adult and not dumb enough to make this bigger than it needs to be. The Twins and Donaldson just aren’t worth it. Let them wallow in last place.

As for Cole’s spin rates, they were back where they were all season prior to his last start, when they were down noticeably. Here’s his average spin rate by start (this is all pitch types lumped together because it’s difficult to see the changes on one graph when you split it up by pitch):

Either Cole went back to the sticky stuff after not using it last time out, or the last start was just a blip (he blamed the decline in spin on a delivery issue), which can happen from time to time. It’s very likely something along the lines of the former, but who really knows? Similar to the Steroid Era, who have no idea who is doing what, exactly. We don’t know how or when or how much, so everyone speculates.

With each passing day more and more pitchers are showing up with reduced spin. Dylan Bundy, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and J.P. Feyereisen were among those who’ve popped up with lower than usual spin recently, in addition to Cole and Trevor Bauer. Cole has become the face of this cheating scandal, however, largely because he has a record contract and is the ace of the sport’s most popular team. Cameron Maybin said it best: the pinstripes are heavy.

I think MLB is right to crack down on foreign substances. We’re beyond the point of using a little pine tar to get a better grip. Teams and players have weaponized sticky stuff to maximize spin and movement. It’s a bridge too far, and yes, teams are complicit. You’re kidding yourself if you think the Yankees didn’t know what Cole was doing when they signed him. All throughout the minors pitchers are developing nastier breaking stuff. How do you think that’s happening? The teams aren’t turning a blind eye to foreign substances. They’re helping with it.

The sticky stuff problem is widespread and the impact of so many pitchers upping their spin rates and adding movement is incalculable. You can’t fix a problem until you properly diagnose the problem, though you can be sure MLB will set out to fix this in a way that doesn’t involve them admitting they’re part of the problem. The league knew about it and let it slide. At the core, this is a rules enforcement issue, and that’s on MLB. “We knew about it and we ignored it because we thought it wasn’t a big deal,” just isn’t a thing Rob Manfred will say though.

“All players are taught methods of practice to optimize performance when they enter professional baseball,” Boras told Andy Martino. “Asking specifics about those customs and practices creates an unfair perception as it attempts to exclude him from the teachings and common practices provided to all MLB pitchers by coaches and teams. Players want to protect both their teachers and teams so they are cautious to respond especially when legislative definition is a future concept.”

Based on the Steroid Era, I think two things will happen. One, the players people like will get a pass with foreign substances, and the players people don’t like will get vilified. Cole is probably in the latter camp. He’s the man, but I get the sense not many people outside New York like him, mostly because he flew under the radar in Pittsburgh and didn’t become a star until he joined those loathsome Astros teams, and is now a big money Yankee. It is what it is.

And two, a few big name pitchers will get caught, and a lot -- A LOT -- of marginal big leaguers will get caught. The 26th man on the 26-man roster and the 40th man on the 40-man roster. The guys trying to get to the big leagues or stay in the big leagues. They have the most to gain by using sticky stuff. Look at the list of players suspended for performance-enhancing drugs. Lotta bench guys and mopup arms. The foreign substance reckoning isn’t going away anytime soon, which is too bad, because I’m already pretty tired of it.

“If umpires are going to go out there and inspect the pitchers and the game's going clean, I'm really excited for it,” Jameson Taillon told Hoch. “When I look inside our locker room, I think it's going to actually help us going forward. I know that seems crazy to say, but we have so much talent in our room that I think eliminating the sticky stuff can actually help us as a group.”

(Shoutout to Pete Alonso for responding to a foreign substance question by saying the real problem is MLB changing the baseball each year depending on the free agent class, meaning juiced balls to hurt pitchers prior to big pitching classes and dead balls to hurt hitters prior to big hitter classes. Fun conspiracy theory, but Alonso is giving MLB too much credit. The owners will just collude to keep salaries down. No need to go through all the trouble of altering the baseball to skew stats. That said, this is another reminder of how little trust there is between MLB and the MLBPA leading into Collective Bargaining Agreement talks.)

2. Andujar’s resurgence. Welcome back, Miggy Missiles. Miguel Andujar looks like the player who was the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up. Following an 0-for-15 start to his big league season, Andujar is 26-for-81 (.321) in his last 22 games, and he’s gone deep five times in his last nine games. At 449 feet, Tuesday’s homer was the longest of his MLB career by 21 feet.

"I truly believe that it has to do with getting consistent at-bats," Andujar told Bryan Hoch about his hot streak. "I feel that it is definitely the difference. I also have to add to that the preparation. The way you prepare for the game and the way you prepare to face those guys. I always stayed firm with my work and my responsibilities, preparation. It was one of the few things that I could control, and that's what I focused on. Focused on the work and staying ready for the opportunity once it arrived."

The power has arrived and Andujar even drew two walks during the Twins series. Tuesday’s was his first of the season and his first since Sept. 5th of last season, 113 plate appearances ago. Last night’s came after he fell behind in the count 0-2. Andujar has seen 10 three-ball counts all season and seven have come within the last week, which means … something? Maybe? Not sure. Probably nothing. Walks will never be a big part of Andujar’s game.

When he’s right -- and he looks right at the moment -- Andujar has the sort of adaptable swing that allows him to hit anything. Fastballs, breaking balls, in, out, up, down, whatever. The only other guys on the team who can say that are who, Gleyber Torres and Gio Urshela, and the good version of DJ LeMahieu? Andujar brings a different look to the lineup as a hacker who can get to anything. He brings variety despite being yet another righty hitter.

The defense in left field hasn’t been great but it’s adequate. If nothing else, it’s never boring. Andujar is looking more comfortable with time. With Clint Frazier yet to really get going, Andujar should play over him. I’d love to see Andujar at first and Frazier in left, though it doesn’t seem the Yankees trust Miggy at first. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton rest enough that there are still plenty of at-bats for Frazier, but yeah, if it’s one or the other, it should be Andujar over Clint.

“I’m a player and I’m here for the team,” Andujar told Hoch about his preferred position. “It doesn’t matter. When the team needs me at third, first, outfield, wherever, I’m going to be ready to play. Wherever they need me to play, I’m going to be fine with. Physically and mentally, I feel very good.”

Give Andujar regular at-bats and he’s going to hit. The circumstances stink (Aaron Hicks and Luke Voit are hurt), but the at-bats became available, and Andujar is capitalizing. The defense is less than ideal, and yeah, it would be nice if he walked more than once every full moon, though the Yankees can’t really afford to be picky. They badly need offense and Andujar is providing it. His resurgence has been a welcome development for the Yankees, and for me especially, the internet’s biggest Andujar fan.

"Miggy’s kind of a unique situation in that he was essentially Rookie of the Year his first year and then has missed a lot of time with injury, and then obviously last year being up and down a little bit,” Aaron Boone told Andy Martino recently. “I think it’s important for Miggy to play and right now, obviously, we have a need and know what he’s certainly capable of and hopefully he can impact us.”

3. Minor league thoughts. Folks, we are two weeks and three days away from The Martian making his long-awaited pro debut. The rookie Gulf Coast League season begins Monday, June 28th, and Jasson Dominguez will finally (finally!) play in an official game. I haven’t been this excited about a pro debut since, uh, Andrew Brackman? Yeah, probably. Here are a few scattered minor league thoughts.

Peraza’s defense

It’s the year of the quick promotion. Or, more likely, it’s the year of “let’s do our best to put these players at the appropriate level, and we’ll adjust as necessary because we lost a season to a pandemic a year ago, and no one knows anything.” The latter seems more likely to me.

Anyway, Oswald Peraza was one of those quick promotions. The soon-to-be 21-year-old spent last year at home and coming into this year his experience above the short season leagues consisted of 46 Low-A games, all in 2019. Peraza spent a month with High-A Hudson Valley, hit .306/.386/.532 (154 wRC+) with as many homers (five) as he hit in his previous 159 career games, then got moved up to Double-A Somerset. He is 1-for-12 (.083) in three games since the promotion.

My pal R.J. Anderson wrote about Peraza’s offensive breakout a few weeks ago, specifically the adjustments he’s made to turn his raw exit velocity into production. Since then, Peraza’s moved into Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list (he’s No. 98), and Sports Info Solutions said he’s leading all minor league shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved.

Here’s Peraza starting a nifty 6-4-3 double play in his Double-A debut the other night. The report on Peraza coming into the season said he is a complete package defender with great range, a strong arm, and instincts, and apparently the early season data backs it up. Would he grow as a hitter and become an all-around threat? In the early going, the answer is a resounding yes.

Peraza turns 21 next Tuesday and he was the tenth youngest player in High-A East on Opening Day, and he’s currently the third youngest player in Double-A Northeast (he’s a few weeks older than Riley Greene and Simeon Woods Richardson). I think Peraza stays with Somerset the rest of the season*, with an eye on Triple-A and a possible MLB call-up at some point next year.

* In the Before Times, giving Peraza a Sept. callup following a successful Double-A season would have been in the cards, but that’s unlikely now. Teams only get two extra roster spots in September, and the Yankees won’t use one on a Double-A infielder. It’ll be an extra arm and an extra utility guy, or maybe two extra arms.

Smith’s power

Shortstop Josh Smith, who is extremely online and my No. 27 prospect, felt like a bit of an overlooked prospect coming into the season. He has one of those “good at everything but great at nothing” skill sets, which isn’t terribly exciting, plus he lost a season to the pandemic. It’s not Smith’s fault that he’ll turn 24 in August of his first full pro season, though it does take a bite out of prospect stock a bit.

That said, this is a former high draft pick (67th overall in 2019) who was expected to go in that range (Baseball America ranked him the No. 68 prospect in the draft), so there’s some ability here. The start of Smith’s season was delayed by a minor hand injury, and, since returning, he is 14-for-47 (.298) with seven homers and more walks (nine) than strikeouts (eight) in 14 games.

Smith already has two fewer home runs than his career high in college (nine in 65 games in 2019) and the power has been surprising. He started the year with 11 games with Low-A Tampa because it was essentially a rehab stint following the hand injury, and now he’s with High-A Hudson Valley, and he’s already gone deep there. Here’s video of Wednesday’s home run.

Smith’s pro debut was crazy impressive in 2019 (.324/.450/.477 and 177 wRC+ with 25 walks and 17 strikeouts in 33 games with Short Season Staten Island), but man, who knows about pro debuts? Every year we see players rip it up for a few weeks after signing only to labor through the grind of a full pro season the next year. Like Spring Training, pro debuts are full of lies.

Given his age and the fact he played three years in college baseball’s toughest conference, my guess is the Yankees want to get the lefty swinging Smith to Double-A before the end of the season, assuming he performs. Two weeks in Low-A, two months in High-A, then Double-A? It could work. A guy like this doesn’t have much to prove in the low minors.

For now, Smith’s power output has been a pleasant surprise in the early going, even if it doesn’t come with big exit velocities (87.4 mph average and 103.5 mph max with Tampa). Smith is already a good prospect because he’s a no-doubt shortstop with contact and plate discipline. Add in some power, and his stock will go up considerably.

Waldichuk’s dominance

Safe to say I underrated lefty Ken Waldichuk. I tabbed him as a sleeper prospect, but he should’ve been in the top 30. Waldichuk has not allowed a run in 24.2 innings with High-A Hudson Valley, and he’s struck out 45 batters against only 10 walks. He has the second best strikeout rate (48.9%) and fifth best K-BB% (38.0%) among the 528 pitchers with at least 20 innings in the minors. Here’s some video.

Here are the most innings among minor leaguers with zero runs allowed going into yesterday’s games:

1. Ken Waldichuk, Yankees: 24.2 innings
2. Zak Kent, Rangers: 18 innings
3. Drew Parrish, Royals: 15.2 innings
4. Braden Bristo, Yankees: 14 innings
5. Nick Lackney, Phillies: 14 innings

MLB.com recently highlighted Waldichuk as a pitching prospect off to a great start this year, saying he is “(armed) with a mid-90s four-seamer and a pair of solid breaking balls.” Baseball America (subs. req’d) had him as their Helium Watch prospect in this week’s Prospect Hot Sheet. Here’s a snippet of their write-up:

He’s done his job using a low-to-mid-90s fastball thrown with angle and deception out of a crossfire delivery. He pairs the fastball primarily with a slider thrown in the same angle as the fastball, which amplifies its effectiveness. In a vacuum, the slider doesn’t grade as a potentially plus pitch, but it acts that way thrown off of his fastball. He also shows a curveball and a changeup, but his fastball and slider are his bread and butter.

Waldichuk, 23, was a fifth round pick in 2019 who, like Smith, didn’t get to build on his strong pro debut in 2020 because of the pandemic. Understandably, the Yankees have been taking it very easy on their pitchers in the early going this year, so Waldichuk has yet to throw more than 75 pitches in a game. Last time out, it was enough to get him through six innings.

The short leash will remain given the weirdness of last year (it’s not just Waldichuk, it’s everyone in the farm system), though I think Waldichuk will be moved up to Double-A soon. He should be, anyway. We’re not going to learn much about this guy in High-A. Hitters at that level won’t have much of a prayer against a guy with a mid-90s heater and two quality breaking balls.

The Yankees have leaned into the build-a-pitcher era in recent years by drafting bats early and pitchers late, and helping those pitchers add velocity (typically with weighted ball training) and spin (with grip changes and also probably with foreign substances). It’s too early to call Waldichuk a success story, but he’s looking good right now. Heck of a get in the fifth round.

Florial’s struggles

Like Peraza, Estevan Florial was promoted quickly this season, though the move from Double-A up to Triple-A was very clearly in response to the Aaron Hicks injury. Florial was promoted in the middle of a series (Peraza was promoted on an off-day) and he was promoted despite going 8-for-35 (.229) in his first nine career Double-A games. Eh.

Not surprisingly, Florial is really struggling in Triple-A. He is 10-for-69 (.145) with 24 strikeouts (30.4%) in 17 games with the RailRiders, and is 3-for-33 (.091) with 12 strikeouts since his one-game cameo with the Yankees. Someone who was at this week’s Scranton vs. Buffalo (in Trenton!) series told me Florial’s at-bats against Anthony Kay and Jacob Waguespack, two guys with MLB experience, were noncompetitive. He’s overmatched right now.

The needs of the big league team always take priority and Florial seems to be the next-in-line center fielder, but the kid is not ready. He’s not ready for Triple-A and should be sent back to Double-A, but it doesn’t seem like the Yankees are going to demote him. For better or worse (worse, I think), Florial is in Triple-A to stay. It’s not great.

At minimum, Florial’s struggles should give the Yankees additional motivation to get another center fielder. He’s not the answer. At least not in 2021. I get the Yankees had a need in center field earlier this year, but lordy, the Yankees really put Florial in an impossible situation. They essentially jumped him over Double-A following a pandemic season and two injured-interrupted High-A seasons. What did they expect to happen at Triple-A? Hopefully he figures it out soon.

A quick word on context

The minor league season is a little more than a month old now and I feel like we’re seeing more extreme performances than in recent years, particularly on the positive side. The guys having good years are having really good years, like Peraza and Waldichuk (and Trey Amburgey, Luis Medina, Anthony Volpe, Hayden Wesneski, etc.). It’s exciting.

That said, this is a season being played under unique circumstances, even as things begin to get back to normal. A few things to keep in mind:

• Triple-A is still using the 2020 baseball. I think? Triple-A will switch to the 2021 MLB ball this year, but clubs are using their leftover 2020 inventory first, so at some point home run rates will just randomly plummet. That’ll be fun.
• Double-A is limiting use of the shift. Specifically, all infielders must have two feet on the dirt when the pitch is delivered. Rob Arthur (subs. req’d) recently explained MLB defenders are playing deeper than ever, cutting into BABIP, so positioning matters.
• The Low-A Southeast league is using the automated strike zone. Meaning Low-A Tampa is playing with robot umps. How much does that factor into Volpe’s impressive 24/28 K/BB or Matt Sauer’s unimpressive 29/20 K/BB?
• Single-A leagues have rules encouraging stolen bases. And stolen bases are way up. In Low-A Southeast, there are 1.63 steal attempts per game with an 80% success rate. In 2019, the Florida State League (Low-A Southeast’s predecessor) had 1.15 stolen base attempts per game and a 68% success rate.

Also, the vast majority of minor league players spent last season at home. Not coincidentally, strikeout rates were way up in the first few weeks of the season, which makes sense. It’s easier for a pitcher to find a mound to work on his craft at home than it is for a hitter to find pro caliber pitching to work on his swing and approach. The pitchers were way ahead of the hitters.

So, when you see something like Hoy Jun Park slugging .695 in Triple-A (rocket ball) or Aaron Palensky running a .444 BABIP (limited shifting) or Volpe with 28 walks and 24 strikeouts (automated strike zone), you have to take a step back and make sure everything is in the proper context. There are a lot of unusual outside factors affecting play this year. That isn’t to say nothing is meaningful this year. We just have to comb through more noise than usual.

4. 2021 draft prospect: Florida HS OF James Wood. The 2021 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d) reports MLB has informed teams the draft will be 20 rounds, the minimum number allowed under last year’s March agreement. The Yankees hold the No. 20 pick. Here is our 2021 draft prospect coverage archive.

Wood, 18 on draft day, is a popular enough prospect that I answered a mailbag question about him a few weeks ago. He’s a monster (currently listed at 6-foot-7 and 240 lbs.) but he’s had a poor spring by top prospect standards, hitting only .258/.478/.500 with three home runs and more strikeouts (26) than walks (25) in 25 games. Potential first rounders typically have video game numbers (batting average over .500, etc.) as a high school senior.

Anyway, Wood has athletic bloodlines (his father played basketball professionally in Europe and his sister plays basketball at Northwestern), and Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranks him the No. 21 prospect in the draft class. MLB.com ranks him No. 29. Here’s video and here’s part of MLB.com’s scouting report:

Wood is a veritable toolshed and showed at various events an ability to use all of them against good competition. The 6-foot-6, 230-pound left-handed hitter has tremendous raw power that showed up consistently in batting practice, with glimpses of it in games. Right now, it’s more of a handsy swing and he should tap into that pop more as he learns to use his lower half better. That will allow him to stay back longer on soft stuff, with his ability to adjust to that a big factor in him reaching his power potential, which could be hitting 25-30 homers annually.

Wood clocked plus run times in 60-yard dashes over the summer and is better once he gets going. He’s shown the ability to cover a lot of ground smoothly in center field with an outstanding arm that would work in right field should he outgrow center.

Baseball America’s scouting report says scouts have been “impressed with the ease of his operation, his bat speed and his ability to put the barrel on the ball in games for impact” despite the poor numbers this spring. For what it’s worth, Jim Callis says the Yankees “might be the ceiling” for Wood, meaning No. 20 is as high as he’s expected to go.

Wood’s skill set is very Aaron Judgeian. He’s physically huge yet faster and more athletic than you’d expect at that size, and he’s an exit velocity monster. Wood has hit balls as hard as 105.3 mph this spring, which is insane exit velocity for a high school kid, even with a metal bat. He can hit the ball like that and also have value on the bases and in the field.

Over the last few years the Yankees have gone for prospects with better hit tools than power (Blake Rutherford, Anthony Seigler, Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells, etc), though we know they value exit velocity, and it contributed to the Volpe and Wells selections. Wood is the top exit velocity guy in the high school draft class and that’s enough to make a connection right there.

The Yankees have not made a high risk, high upside selection like Wood since Judge in 2013, when they had three first round picks and could diversify their haul to mitigate the risk. There is definitely something to be said for taking a big swing though. Star caliber tools are hard to find, especially in the back half of the first round, and Wood seems to have them. Every once in a while one of these huge power, huge whiff high schoolers turns into Giancarlo Stanton.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees should play Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield in Philadelphia this weekend. Aaron Boone already confirmed that won’t happen, but 2-3 at-bats and 5-6 innings in the field shouldn’t be off the table. Stanton is getting hot and now he’s going to be put on ice for four days. I don’t like it. Surely there’s a middle ground between not playing him in the outfield at all and running him into the ground. Can’t give him a few innings out there in a two-game series bookended by off-days? … The Yankees had an off-day Monday, they have another off-day today, and they have yet another off-day Monday. I thought they’d use them to skip Mike King’s start, especially since they need to rack up some wins, but nope, he pitched last night. I get it. Opportunities to give the starters extra rest are hard to come by, and the three off-days in an eight-day span allows the Yankees to give everyone a little breather. Makes sense, I just wasn’t sure it would actually happen … Earlier this week MLB announced it will hold its first ever draft combine later this month, and MLB Network will broadcast some of it. Here’s the press release. Over 100 top draft prospects will take part in workouts and also “what to expect in pro ball” educational programs. Good idea, though I’m not sure a good (or bad) combine showing will significantly alter a prospect’s draft stock. Baseball teams aren’t wired to change their opinions based on small samples … And finally, Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes is one of the my favorite young players in the game, and earlier this week he made an all-time blunder when he missed first base on a home run trot, and was called out. Later that night Royals top prospect Bobby Witt Jr. was called out after missing home plate on a home run trot (though it sure looks like he stepped on the plate). Stepping on each base as you round the bases on the homer isn’t too much to ask, but my goodness, what an inane and unnecessary rule. No one is gaining an advantage by not stepping on a base on an outside-the-park homer. The upside of the rule is what, someone misses a base and we all get a good laugh out of it once every few years? Feels like a rule MLB should dump and not even bother to tell anyone (like how they got rid of protesting games). No one will notice and no one will care.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Brian asks: What would it take for the Yankees to sell?  It doesn't seem like they are going to add any players of note or impact (that Odor trade still reeks). But as long as they are close to the wild card feels like they can justify hanging on and not adding to the team.

It would take a massive collapse these next few weeks. The Yankees have 27 games remaining before the All-Star break. Going 5-22 in those 27 games might do it. In that case the Yankees would go into the break with a 38-52 record, probably 7-10 games out of a Wild Card spot with 6-7 teams ahead of them, and postseason odds under 10%. They’d be buried.

I can’t see that happening. As frustrating and disappointing and underwhelming as the Yankees have been this season, they haven’t been bad, they’re just playing well below expectations. The offense has been dormant, though there’s enough talent on the roster to hang around the Wild Card race the rest of the season. In that case, I think the Yankees owe it to themselves to add pieces at the deadline, not trade players away. Make an effort to contend, please.

Tom asks: By my count, the Yankees have only used one opener this year - the absurd Nick Nelson decision against the Rays. Is it time to think about deploying a similar strategy with Jameson Taillon, and Jordan Montgomery, who could easily follow, say Lucas Luetge (Taillon) or Chad Green (Monty), especially after Zack Britton gets back? Taillon is frustrating in that lefties have crushed him this season, and many of his starts have fallen victim to the "1 bad inning" in the 4th, 5th, or 6th. Pushing him back an inning (or two) and throwing behind the funkier left handed delivery of Luetge might help, no?

Mike King definitely needs an opener. It’s not the biggest sample, but in seven career starts, he’s allowed eight runs in seven first innings and 15 runs in 18.1 innings otherwise, which is still pretty bad! But the first inning is extra bad. We saw it last night and last week against the Red Sox. The Yankees should keep King away from the top of the lineup as often as possible.

Taillon has typically been very good early in his starts before wavering in the middle innings, when the lineup turns over a third time (like Saturday). Montgomery is the opposite. He tends to labor in the first inning, then settle down after that (like Tuesday). Pair each guy with an opener and maybe you can mitigate those recurring issues.

On days the opposing team has a top of the lineup loaded with lefties, pairing Taillon with a lefty opener makes a ton of sense. Luetge would seem to be the obvious choice, though I’m sure Wandy Peralta could do it too. If you pair Montgomery with an opener, do his first inning issues simply become second inning issues? I don’t know, but I think it’s worth finding out.

I understand and appreciate the strategy behind the opener, but I don’t enjoy watching it, and my preference would be to watch a game with a regular starting pitcher. What wins and what is aesthetically pleasing aren’t always the same thing, and teams will do what wins until the league forces them to change. King needs an opener. Taillon and Montgomery don’t necessarily need an opener every single start, but it should be considered based on the opposing lineup.

Vincent asks: Have there been any precipitous declines in individual Yankee pitcher spin rates over the past few weeks, a la Trevor Bauer?

We already know about Gerrit Cole’s spin. Chad Green jumped to mind as a potential foreign substance guy given his reliance on his high spin fastball, though his spin rates have held steady all year, and they’re actually up a bit from the last few years. Aroldis Chapman’s spin rates are right in line with the last few seasons. No changes from him.

This is Domingo German’s first MLB action in two years and his curveball spin rate is up this season compared to 2019. The increase actually began in 2019 and has carried over to 2021. Here are German’s spin rates by game over the years. The curveball (blue line) stands out:

Part of MLB’s fact-finding mission earlier this year involved analyzing Statcast data to figure out who may be using sticky stuff, and I imagine that big sudden increase in German’s curveball spin caught their attention. This year though, his spin rates have held steady throughout his starts. There hasn’t been a sudden drop like Cole’s start last week.

Luis Cessa, Mike King, Jonathan Loaisiga, Lucas Luetge, and Jameson Taillon have shown no decline in their spin rates this season. Luetge’s spin rates actually increased for a few weeks, but have since come back to where they were in April. Maybe that’s something that catches MLB’s attention and puts Luetge on the foreign substance radar? Could be he started using a foreign substance, then stopped once word of the crackdown leaked.

Cole is the only notable pitcher on the Yankees staff who’s seen his spin rate drop below where it was earlier this year (or previous years), and to date that was a one start thing. He’s not the only pitcher in baseball who’s had that happen, though he seems to be the face of the foreign substance reckoning given his contract and standing as ace of the Yankees. It is what it is.

Nicholas asks: The Yankees have paid lip service to wanting to avoid the CBT penalty in the draft-but should they be concerned? If you look at their history with 1st round picks (46 years worth) it’s not great. A couple have been useful trade pieces (Milton, McGregor) but among the guys they signed, only 3 have more than 20 bWAR (Judge, Jeter, Munson). I don’t count Carl Everett cause they let him go in the expansion draft. I guess my question is, the Yankees seem to treasure their draft picks, but should they … because under several different management regimes they have shown no aptitude at drafting folks.

Two things about this. One, being bad at drafting in the past -- and the Yankees have a terrible track record with first round picks -- doesn’t mean you’ll be bad at it in the future. Does Pedro Feliciano being a total bust mean the Yankees shouldn’t bother signing relievers in the future? Nope. You make the best decision you can with the information you have at the time, learn from your mistakes, and keep trying.

And two, the draft pick thing is absolutely not part of the luxury tax equation. It’s a convenient excuse that sounds plausible, but the luxury tax plan is about money, first and foremost. The draft pick penalties (i.e. your top pick moves back 10 spots) don’t kick in until the highest luxury tax tier, which occurs when you’re $40M over the threshold. There is a huge gap between the Yankees’ payroll now and what it needs to be to incur that draft pick penalty.

Also, it’s 10 spots, who cares? Yes, moving back 10 spots could cost you the next superstar, but the risk is fairly small late in the first round, and the difference between say, the No. 25 pick and the No. 35 pick is tiny. About $3M, according to Craig Edwards. When your championship window is open, moving back 10 picks should not be a concern as you look to improve your roster. It’s an excuse that sounds good, but one we shouldn’t take seriously.

Jon asks: At what point do we start seriously considering Hoy Park as SS while moving Torres back to 2b and DJL to 1st?

As I’ve written before, I’m not onboard with moving Gleyber Torres back to second base yet. I’m giving him the entire season at shortstop before changing his position. He had a rough first week and a few hiccups last week, but has otherwise been steady at short. I want to give him more time to settle in. I realize I am in the minority here. This is just my opinion.

Anyway, Jon is essentially asking whether it makes sense to replace Rougned Odor with Hoy Jun Park, another left-handed hitting infielder, albeit one with zero MLB experience. Park, now 25, has long been billed as a heady, above-average defensive infielder with range and a strong arm, and he’s spent plenty of time at the three non-first base infield positions. If nothing else, he’s more versatile than Odor, and doesn’t sacrifice defensive ability.

Offensively, Park is having a tremendous season, hitting .356/.486/.695 (212 wRC+) with five home runs in 17 games with Triple-A Scranton since a promotion from Double-A Somerset. The 33.3% HR/FB rate is fluky as hell (as noted earlier, Triple-A is still using the rocket ball), and power isn’t Park’s game anyway. He’s a plate discipline/contact guy who’s posted single-digit swing-and-miss rates and double-digit walk rates throughout his career.

For what it’s worth, Steamer projects Park as a true talent .226/.308/.322 (81 wRC+) hitter this year (he doesn’t have a ZiPS projection), which isn’t very good, but he only needs to clear the “better than Odor” bar, and that ain’t high. Odor has a .265 OBP and a 74 wRC+. Park doesn’t even need to be better than Odor, really. Match his offense and you’ve still made an upgrade thanks to his versatility (also, Park is a good baserunner, which is not nothing).

There is a luxury tax component to this (Odor costs $0 and Park costs something more than $0), though I don’t want to talk about that. I am luxury taxed out. On the field, I think replacing Odor with Park is worthwhile, though it’s likely to be a marginal upgrade more than something that dramatically improves the team’s chances. Park’s been great in the early going this year and has put himself on the radar a la Chris Gittens, if nothing else.

Jerry asks: Regarding the Yank’s 4 farm teams, they are all off to a really good start especially Scranton and Tampa. I am well aware that farm team win-loss results don’t really matter that much in the scheme of things although the 2016 Railriders did win the overall AAA crown and did produce lots of major leaguers excluding the ones that came up and stuck like Judge/Sanchez (Severino, Frazier, Monty, Cessa, Green, plus guys who were traded and did well elsewhere (Gallegos, Bleier, Yates, etc.). This raises two questions: 1) How much can we read into the farm’s success thus far and 2) As the Yankees’ “core” is due for a reset by 2023, which current farm hands do you think are best placed for a meaningful impact (starter, key reliever, etc.) on the 2023 roster?

Going into yesterday, the Yankees’ four minor league affiliates were a combined 79-43 (.648), which is a 105-win pace in a 162-game season. Triple-A Scranton (20-9) and High-A Tampa (23-9) are leading the way, and the Orioles and Royals are a distant second with a .620 winning percentage. No other organization has a winning percentage over .600.

The minor leagues are about development, first and foremost, but you do want your prospects to learn how to win and grow accustomed to winning, and expect to win each day they go to the ballpark. Look at it this way: there’s zero downside to winning in the minors, but there is quite a bit of downside to losing. This is a game of failure, and too much failure is a bad thing.

To answer the first question, I think it’s too early to read anything into each affiliate’s success. Tampa has the oldest roster in Low-A Southeast, so they’re putting more experienced players on the field than their opponents. That far down the minor league ladder, age and experience absolutely matters. Their thumb is on the scale. One month into the minor league season, I wouldn’t put much weight into team results.

As for the second question, I count 10 players on my top 30 prospects list who could help the 2023 Yankees: Deivi Garcia (No. 2), Clarke Schmidt (No. 3), Luis Medina (No. 4), Luis Gil (No. 5), Estevan Florial (No. 7), Oswald Peraza (No. 10), Nick Nelson (No. 12), Alex Vizcaino (No. 13), Albert Abreu (No. 16), and Mike King (No. 28). Austin Wells (No. 6), Yoendrys Gomez (No. 14), T.J. Sikkema (No. 21), Josh Breaux (No. 24), and Trevor Hauver (No. 25) are maybes.

Expecting Jasson Dominguez to be ready in 2023 is a lot to ask. That’ll be his age 20 season, and while we’re seeing 20-year-olds have an immediate impact more than ever (Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., etc.), none of those guys lost a season to a pandemic. If Dominguez doesn’t debut until age 21 in 2024, that’s okay! That’s still an early arrival.

Among the 10 prospects with a chance to contribute meaningfully in 2023, I think you potentially have two impact starting pitchers (Garcia and Medina), three good to great relievers (Schmidt, Gil, and Vizcaino), a starting center fielder (Florial), a starting shortstop (Peraza), and depth pieces. Getting all that within two years would be an amazing outcome.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)