June 4th, 2021: Judge, Baserunning, Ford, Injuries, Rockies, Mailbag

All things considered, splitting four games with the Rays is a good outcome, but dropping the finale with Gerrit Cole on the mound is a tough pill to swallow. The Yankees are 6-6 in Cole’s starts this year. They can’t hit and they can’t win with their ace on the mound (not that Cole pitched well yesterday). This team is a chore to watch. The Yankees are on pace to go 88-74 with 105 games remaining. Here are today’s thoughts.

1. Weekly observations. Three weeks ago the Yankees had a chance to sweep the Rays in Tropicana Field, and yesterday they had a chance to clinch a four-game series win over the Rays at Yankee Stadium. In the two series finales, the Yankees were outscored a combined 18-3. Like I said earlier this week, the only thing this team has done consistently the last two years is fail to rise to the occasion. Some thoughts on the last few days.

Bad umpiring

Let me start by saying the Yankees did not lose yesterday because of bad umpiring. They played poorly enough to lose on their own. The umps did them no favors though. Clint Frazier got jobbed out of an at-bat with runners on second and third and one out with the Yankees down a run. Look at this. Frazier struck out in a 5-0 count. Strike three was too close to take! But the at-bat should never have gotten that far anyway.

Here are each team’s called balls and strikes yesterday. The Rays and Ryan Yarbrough got calls the Yankees absolutely did not (full-size image):

Mike Zunino is an excellent pitch-framer, but Kyle Higashioka is one of the best in the game, so that wasn’t an issue. Look at those charts above though. The Yankees pitched north-south and Yarbrough pitched east-west. He put himself in position to capitalize on the friendly zone. The Yankees did not. They kept going up-down rather than side-to-side.

Also, Kevin Kiermaier ran out of the baseline on an infield single to spark Tampa’s three-run rally in the fifth inning. MLB rule 6.05 says the runner is “permitted to exit the three-foot lane by means of a step, stride, reach or slide in the immediate vicinity of first base for the sole purpose of touching first base.” This is not the immediate vicinity of first base:

Kiermaier was called safe, Aaron Boone argued half-heartedly, and then the inning snowballed from there because Gerrit Cole made some poor pitches. (Judgment calls aren’t reviewable and that’s a judgment call. Only black and white plays can be reviewed. Fair or foul, safe or out, etc.)

The umpires were bad yesterday, the Yankees were worse, and blaming the loss on the umpires would be missing the forest for the trees. Cole labored for the second time in four starts and the offense scored no more than two runs for the 22nd time this season. The Yankees were well on their way to losing the game anyway. The umps just helped usher it along.

“I just expressed some things and got run,” Boone told Brendan Kuty after getting ejected later in the game. “I just wanted to get my point across. I thought there were some close pitches, but the Rays outplayed us. I just had some disagreements throughout the day with them and got run obviously when I went out to the mound. Probably said some things that I can’t get away with. That’s about it. That’s about the gist of it.”

Aaron Judge, center fielder

You really have to hand it to Boone. He’s done the opposite of everything he said after Aaron Hicks got hurt. Maybe this is all some big social experiment and the Yankees are testing us to see how much we pay attention to the things they say. Here’s what Boone said about center field after Hicks got hurt:

• “We can’t run Gardy out there nine innings every day and run him into the ground.” (Gardner has started 17 of the 21 games in center since Hicks got hurt.)
• “I feel comfortable … sliding Clint Frazier over in a pinch.” (Frazier has not played a single inning in center yet.)
• “I don’t think I’d do it (slide him over to center) with Aaron Judge right now.” (Judge started in center Wednesday night.)

Boone is 0-for-3, so he’d fit in with the rest of the Yankees (nyuck nyuck nyuck). Judge had an easy night in center Wednesday, making one routine catch (this one) and scooping up a soft single that rolled his way (this one). Clint had to make a running catch in right (this one) that was more difficult than anything Judge had to do in center, so for one night, it worked out.

Truth be told, Judge is likely to field fewer balls in center field than right field based on the first two months of the season. Yankees right fielders have had more defensive chances than their center fielders (116 to 108), and here’s the spray heat map of the fly balls the team has allowed:

Fewer chances in center, yeah, but not that many fewer, and also the center fielder has to do more running in general because he has to back up both corners. The right fielder only has to back up center field. On balls hit to left, the right fielder can just kinda stand around and save energy. The center fielder is doing something on every ball hit to the outfield.

That’s what worries me about Judge in center. He’s been dealing with this vague lower body soreness all season (it’s serious enough that he’s spent multiple games on the bench on two separate occasions), and there’s no reason to believe it’s gone away. Judge has not started more than two consecutive games in the outfield since May 11th to 14th.

“I feel we’re in a good spot with him. It’s something I pay attention to and am monitoring,” Boone told Dan Martin on Wednesday, acknowledging Judge’s lower body soreness is still there. “... Obviously understanding we’re in some unique circumstances right now where (he’s needed in center). Aaron is excited to step up to the challenge. He’s a great outfielder, a good athlete. Fundamentally, he’s incredibly sound as a defender.”

Boone didn’t rule out Judge playing center more regularly going forward -- “We’ll see. I’m not necessarily committing to anything, but I could definitely see it being in play moving forward, from time to time,” he told Jordan Horrobin -- and man, I don’t like it. I think he can handle the position defensively just fine. I just don’t want to risk overloading him with his legs not 100%. Judge is too important.

Baserunning adventures

It is a minor miracle the Yankees have not had a runner pass another to make an out on the bases during a home run trot yet this season. They've been that hilarious and that terrible on the bases. If they weren't one of the lowest scoring teams in baseball, all the baserunning mistakes might be a funny sidebar.

Instead, the baserunning mistakes are a major problem that seem to sabotage a rally a night. Wednesday night the Yankees made three blunders in one inning (Gio Urshela getting thrown out at third, Gleyber Torres not following as the trail runner, Gleyber getting picked off first), and that's as bad as it gets.

“(It) has been enough of an issue for us. A lot of things needed to be addressed,” Boone told Martin earlier this week. “The last thing you want to do is stifle aggression. Obviously, in that situation, making the first out at third base is not a good play. We’ve seen times in the last week or two we’ve lacked aggression out of fear of making mistakes.”

The Yankees lead baseball in outs on the bases (28) and they’re second to last in FanGraphs’ all-encompassing baserunning stat (-7.0 runs). I've been told Baseball Prospectus has them 27th in their baserunning stat (-4.2 runs), better than only the Nationals, Tigers, and Orioles. Not the kind of company you want to keep in anything that measures on-field performance.

It’s one thing if a guy gets thrown out at home on a bang-bang play because the other team made a perfect relay. That happens. It’s another when you’re getting thrown out at third on ground balls in front of you, or have runners thrown out at the plate by 30 feet. The Yankees do too much of the latter. Their baserunning issues are too often mental mistakes.

Hitters press at the plate when they’re struggling and we’re at the point now where it seems the Yankees are pressing on the bases. Simultaneously trying to do too much (like Gio trying to go to third) and playing it too safe (like Torres not following as the trail runner). Can one big baserunning play wake a team up the way a big hit can? I have no idea.

From 2017-20, FanGraphs had the Yankees as the third best baserunning team in baseball at +30.9 runs. I don’t think anyone expected the 2021 Yankees to be a great baserunning team, or even an average baserunning team. But, like the offense in general, the baserunning has been unacceptably terrible. It’s fire a coach terrible, though I wouldn’t count on that happening.

Ford demoted

The timing of Mike Ford’s recall and demotion amuse me. The Yankees determined Ford was not good enough to play over Jay Bruce, so they sent him to Triple-A. Then, when Bruce retired, Ford was called up and inserted into the cleanup spot. He wasn’t good enough to play ahead of Bruce but he was good enough to bat cleanup when he did play.

Earlier this week Ford was good enough to bat fifth against Tyler Glasnow, but not good enough to keep his roster spot. He was sent down after the game. That had as much (if not more) to do with the Yankees needing a fresh reliever as it did Ford’s performance. He hit .134/.250/.276 (49 wRC+) in 156 plate appearances the last two years. You can’t do that and keep your roster spot as a bat-only first baseman.

When Ford was demoted, I initially thought there was a chance Chris Gittens would get the call because the Yankees were tentatively scheduled to see three lefty starters (Shane McClanahan, Ryan Yarbrough, Eduardo Rodriguez) in their next five games. I also didn’t think they’d go with Gio Urshela or Gary Sanchez (I guess?) as their backup first baseman.

Instead, the Yankees have gone with a nine-man bullpen and a three-man bench the last few days. I don’t think that will last. The Yankees have three off-days in an eight-day span beginning Monday, and they won’t need their fifth starter again until Saturday, June 19th. Dropping the ninth reliever in favor of another position player is an obvious move.

Estevan Florial and Oswald Peraza are the only position players on the 40-man roster in the minors. The Yankees could put Corey Kluber on the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man spot for Gittens, the more versatile Derek Dietrich, or whoever. Ford can’t be recalled until next Friday because of the 10-day rule though, and I can’t see the Yankees going with a nine-man bullpen until then given the upcoming off-days. It’s overkill.

2. Injury updates. The Yankees received some good injury news this week. Crazy, I know. Two prominent pitchers are inching closer to rejoining the Yankees and a third may be able to return sooner than expected. Here’s the latest.

Britton continues rehab assignment

Zack Britton made his second rehab appearance with Double-A Somerset on Wednesday. It didn’t go great (1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 27 pitches), but he came through it healthy, and that’s all that really matters. A veteran guy like Britton is just going through the motions and getting his work in, not stressing over the results. His next rehab appearance will be Saturday.

Aaron Boone said Britton is expected to make five rehab appearances, and he added they won’t have him pitch back-to-back days before returning. Figure two days between games and Britton will pitch Saturday, Tuesday, and Friday. I guess that puts him on track to return Monday, June 14th? Well, no, that’s an off-day, so let’s call it Tuesday, June 15th. Sounds like a plan.

Kluber gets good news

When’s the last time a pitcher went for a second opinion that brought back good news? I can’t remember, honestly. Corey Kluber went for a second (and third) opinion on his injured shoulder, and the diagnosis is more optimistic. His timetable has not changed, necessarily, but Kluber is expected to begin throwing sooner than initially projected.

“I would say there’s some optimism. He’ll probably start a flat ground program sometime in the next few days,” Boone told Kristie Ackert. “I still think it looks like it’s a similar timeline, but a flat ground program will probably start sooner rather than later.”

The original plan had Kluber being shut down completely for four weeks. If he begins throwing on flat ground next week, he’ll be two weeks into that initial four-week shutdown period. Even if Kluber still misses eight weeks or so, the sooner he starts throwing, the sooner he’ll pitch in rehab games, and sooner he’ll return to midseason form, at least in theory.

As a 35-year-old coming off his second shoulder injury in as many years, Kluber can hit all sorts of bumps in the road with his rehab. The sooner he starts throwing, the sooner the Yankees can see what’s what, and gauge his ability to help them. If he comes back throwing 87 mph with no command, you’d rather know that as soon as possible so you can find alternatives.

For now, Kluber’s outlook has improved, though he’s still a ways away from rejoining the club. My wish is the Yankees would just forget about him and treat whatever he gives him as a bonus. If he comes back and dominates down the stretch, great! I’d rather plan as if Kluber won’t return and be effective. I’d rather have too much pitching than not enough, if that’s possible.

Severino to begin rehab assignment Sunday

Luis Severino threw a three-inning simulated game Monday and will begin a minor league rehab assignment with Low-A Tampa on Sunday. That will begin his 30-day rehab clock, though Article XIX(C)(3)(c) of the Collective Bargaining Agreement allows teams to request three additional 10-day rehab periods for Tommy John surgery guys, so it’s really a 60-day rehab clock.

“He threw the ball really well (Monday). He was sitting 97. He finished off in the third inning, really cutting it loose,” Boone told Randy Miller earlier this week. “He feels great from an elbow standpoint and his body. He’s in great shape. So the next thing, he’s scheduled to pitch with an affiliate starting on Sunday.”

Believe it or not, Ivan Nova is the last Tommy John surgery guy the Yankees brought back to the big leagues as a starter. Jordan Montgomery returned as a reliever late in 2019, and Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Pineda were both non-tendered after their elbows gave out. It’s been a while since the Yankees have had an MLB starter return from Tommy John surgery during the season.

Nova made only three minor league rehab starts, all in the 70-85 pitch range, before rejoining the Yankees in June 2015. Boone said the Yankees will bring Severino back before he’s fully stretched out. Three rehab appearances to build up to 75 pitches could do the trick. That’s the Nova precedent, though that was a baseball lifetime ago. Rehab protocols have changed.

Three rehab starts feels like the bare minimum for Severino. Five days between starts and we’re looking at a return no earlier than Thursday, June 24th. The Yankees will wrap up a three-game home series with the Royals that day. That’s a pretty soft landing spot. If they give Severino a fourth rehab start, he could return Wednesday, June 30th against the Angels. That works too.

First things first: Severino has to begin his rehab, stay healthy, and show he’s ready to get big leaguers out. If he’s ready after three rehab starts, great. If he needs four or five (or six) rehab starts, that’s okay too. Counting on a Tommy John surgery guy to be an impact starter right away is dicey, but it does happen. At this point, even a league average Severino will suffice.

3. Yankees get Cannon. The Mike Tauchman trade is complete. Earlier this week the Yankees announced they have received first baseman Connor Cannon from the Giants as the player to be named later. Cannon, a 17th round pick in 2019, is recovering from offseason wrist surgery and is currently in Extended Spring Training.

When the Yankees made the Tauchman trade, I said “I wouldn’t expect a top or even mid-range prospect” as the player to be named, and yep. Cannon is essentially a younger Chris Gittens as a righty hitting first base only guy with enormous power. Here’s a Spring Training scouting report on the 23-year-old from Eric Longenhagen (here’s video):

Cannon has serious juice, legitimate 80-grade raw power. He’s enormous (listed at 6-foot-5 and 240 lbs.) and has mobility issues created by his size and exacerbated by multiple knee surgeries. There’s extreme risk here due to the R/R first base profile and the medical, which goes beyond the knee stuff, but he has to be on (this top 40 Giants prospects list) because of how loud the power is. He also needs to perform immediately to stay on it.

I like that, in their pre-draft scouting report, Baseball America (subs. req’d) said Cannon’s power results in “towering home runs that clear 450 feet and demoralize opposing pitchers.” Josh Norris adds Cannon’s exit velocities are on par with the very best in the game. The Yankees definitely have a type, eh? And they’re not afraid to lean into it.

Cannon ripped up the rookie Arizona League in his pro debut, hitting .326/.399/.689 (181 wRC+) with a league-leading 13 home runs in 2019. He was more than a year older than the average player in the league though, and in three years at UC Riverside, he struck out 25.6% of the time. That’s an awfully high college strikeout rate, even for a 17th round pick.

Teams prefer players with one great tool to players with a lot of okay tools and Cannon fits the mold. He might not hit enough to get to his power in games, the same way a speed guy may not get on base enough, or a pitcher with a 100 mph fastball may not throw enough strikes. The Yankees will see whether they can help Cannon make more contact to tap into his power.

The Red Sox still owe the Yankees cash or a player to be named as part of the Adam Ottavino trade (it has to be finalized within six months of the trade, so the deadline is June 25th). It’ll be cash, probably. That was a financially motivated trade. The Yankees gave Boston a prospect to take on Ottavino’s money. They’re not getting anything back. For all intents and purposes, the Cannon trade settles all pending transactions.

4. Rockies as a trade partner. If Aaron Judge and Tyler Wade starting games in center field didn’t convince you the Yankees need a center fielder, nothing will. The Yankees have stuck with their internal options since Aaron Hicks got hurt and it’s mostly been a disaster. Their center fielders have hit .183/.247/.296 (55 wRC+) since Hicks played his last game. Yuck.

At 23-34, the Rockies are as terrible as expected, and they should be an obvious seller at the trade deadline. Trevor Story is their top trade chip, and there will be a market for Jon Gray and Daniel Bard and others. Colorado is also deep in center fielders. Well, they’re deep in guys who can play center field. Not necessarily good center fielders. Know what I mean?

The Rockies are toxic -- imagine having a front row seat for the Nolan Arenado drama as a player -- and I am pro getting players out of toxic environments. There’s also something to be said for getting hitters away from Coors Field given the hangover effect. Plus, teams just match up well sometimes. Colorado has a surplus of center fielders and the Yankees have a need.

Barring an unexpected change with the luxury tax plan, the Yankees are going to have to look at cheap players to address center field. And it needs to be addressed. Brett Gardner isn’t cutting it, Judge in center shouldn’t be a regular thing, and the Yankees clearly don’t want to play Clint Frazier in center. Let’s see whether any of Colorado’s center field types make sense.

OF Yonathan Daza

2021 stats: .328/.370/.391 (99 wRC+) in 140 plate appearances

Contract status: Pre-arbitration-eligible from 2021-23, arbitration-eligible from 2024-26 (out of minor league options)

What does he do well? Daza, 27, is in his first full MLB season and is Colorado’s heavily used fourth outfielder. He’s a righty hitting speed and defense type. Daza has been a high contact guy throughout his career, with strikeout and swing-and-miss rates consistently south of the league average. He is also a very good defender -- last year Baseball America (subs. req’d) called him “easily the best centerfielder in the organization” -- who will steal bases, go first-to-third on singles, etc.

What are his flaws? There is zero pop in Daza’s bat. Only once in his career has he hit more than four home runs in a season (11 homers in 89 games at Triple-A Albuquerque's launching pad in 2019), and his exit velocities are among the lowest in baseball. Daza also doesn’t walk much, so he’s a put the ball in play and run guy who’s a threat to post a sub-.300 OBP. Classic fourth outfielder’s skill set. The type who will endear himself to fans because he's fast, he's good defensively, he plays hard, and he'll have BABIP hot streaks.

UTIL Garrett Hampson

2021 stats: .229/.293/.413 (78 wRC+) in 199 PA

Contract status: Pre-arbitration-eligible in 2021, arbitration-eligible from 2022-24 (one minor league option remaining)

What does he do well? Hampson is an absolute burner. The 26-year-old is one of the fastest players in baseball based on both the eye test and the numbers (99th percentile sprint speed). He uses that speed to steal bases efficiently and in bulk, and also run down balls in center field. Also, Hampson is versatile. The Rockies regularly use him at second and short in addition to center field.

What are his flaws? Similar to Daza, the righty hitting Hampson has little power. He might threaten double-digit home runs if given enough at-bats, though his exit velocities are very low, and he puts the ball in the air too often to use his speed (career 40.5% grounders). Hampson also strikes out a bunch, so you have a power hitter’s profile (strikeouts, fly balls) without the power. At least he’ll go get the ball in center field, I guess.

OF Sam Hilliard

2021 stats: 4-for-37 (.108) in MLB and .161/.255/.310 (39 wRC+) in 24 Triple-A games

Contract status: Pre-arbitration-eligible from 2021-22, arbitration-eligible from 2023-25 (two minor league options remaining)

What does he do well? A 27-year-old lefty hitter, Hilliard has big time power and has posted max exit velocities north of 113 mph in his various cups of coffee. There’s nothing elegant about his offensive game: Hilliard is a dead pull lefty despite having the power to hit the ball out the other way. Defensively, he’s sneaky good in center despite being 6-foot-5 and 236 lbs. -- last year Baseball America (subs. req’d) said Hilliard has a “strong arm that precludes runners from being overly brave” -- and he’s fast enough that he has four 20-steal minor league seasons to his credit. Hilliard has some Aaron Judge in him in that he’s deceptively athletic and good defensively for his size.

What are his flaws? Hilliard strikes out a lot. A LOT. Consistently over 30% throughout his minor league career and closer to 40% his last two years in MLB, with excessive swing-and-miss rates. Even if he gets to his power in games, Hilliard’s at-bats will not be fun to watch, and casual fans will hate him because there will be so many empty swings (think Chris Carter). Also, he doesn’t walk as much as you’d expect a hitter with this power to walk, so Hilliard’s offensive upside is something like .220/.280/.450. Eh.

OF Raimel Tapia

2021 stats: .270/.323/.377 (79 wRC+) in 223 PA

Contract status: $1.95M in 2021, arbitration-eligible from 2022-23 (out of minor league options)

What does he do well? Tapia, 27, is developing into one of the game’s better contact hitters. His swing-and-miss rates are starting to approach DJ LeMahieu territory, and he’s a shift-proof lefty hitter who has used all three fields almost equally in his career. Tapia has a history of high BABIPs and I don’t think it’s a fluke given how much contact he makes and how well he uses the entire field (and his spacious home ballpark). He rates well defensively and on the bases too.

What are his flaws? You’re not going to get much power from Tapia (he has 18 homers in over 1,100 career big league plate appearances), who is a bottom tier exit velocity guy with ground ball rates approaching 60% the last few years. Also, the Rockies seem to prefer him in left field given how much he’s played there in recent years. In fact, Tapia has not played center at all since 2019. So maybe he’s not actually a center fielder at this point? Dunno. All the contact means few walks too, so BABIP will determine Tapia’s offensive production.

I was a Tapia fan once upon a time (I traded for him as part of the 2018-19 Offseason Plan), but I thought he’d have more power than he’s shown, and I thought he could play center field. It seems the Rockies do not agree. Then again, the Rockies are dumb, and get Tapia away from that situation and his offense may take off, kinda like LeMahieu two years ago.

Given their needs, I think Daza is the most sensible target for the Yankees. He’s a legitimate center fielder, so at a minimum, he improves the defense. Also, his high contact bat would be a welcome addition to a lineup that has struck out a little much the last few weeks. Yeah, Daza would be another righty in a righty heavy lineup, but so be it.

The Yankees have a type and Hilliard best fits that type given his power and exit velocities, but man, I don’t think this team needs another high strikeout hitter, even if he is a lefty. I’m not sure how anyone could watch this team the last few weeks (years?) and not believe they need to diversify the lineup a bit. Hilliard is more of the same. Daza and Tapia fit best, I think.

Three years ago the Yankees sent the Rockies a bullpen prospect (Phil Diehl) for six years of Mike Tauchman. A similar trade for Daza (or whoever) would be ideal. Say, Brooks Kriske for Daza, or Trevor Lane for Hilliard. Either way, the Yankees badly need a center fielder, and Colorado is one of the few teams that looks to have excess at the position. That alone makes them a potential trade partner, though what they have to offer isn’t terribly appealing.

5. 2021 draft prospect: New Jersey HS LHP Anthony Solometo. The 2021 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d) reports MLB has informed teams the draft will be 20 rounds, the minimum number allowed under last year’s March agreement. The Yankees hold the No. 20 pick. Here is our 2021 draft prospect coverage archive.

Solometo, 18 on draft day, is a semi-local kid who attends Bishop Eustace Prep in Pennsauken Township, which is across the river from Philadelphia. MLB.com ranks him the No. 30 prospect in the draft class and Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranks him No. 61. Here’s video (make sure you click through to see the kid's delivery) and here’s a snippet of MLB.com’s scouting report:

The combination of a 6-foot-3 frame and left-handedness have many scouts feeling very bullish about Solometo’s chances at the next level. With a (MacKenzie) Gore-like high kick and a (Madison) Bumgarner-esque three-quarter delivery, the North Carolina recruit throws his fastball in the 90-94 mph range with good power and life. He has outstanding command of the pitch, already showing the ability to challenge right-handed hitters inside with it. His breaking ball is at its best when it’s more of a true slider, and though it can get a little too big at times and become slurvy, it still plays well off of his arm slot. He has an average changeup now, but he has the chance to have three above-average pitches in the future.

The funk in Solometo’s delivery adds a ton of deception, making his already good stuff play up even more. He repeats it well and has a good idea of how to use his stuff. After a firm jump on the map over the summer, the southpaw has really moved up boards this spring, with a chance to land in the first round.

For what it’s worth, Keith Law (subs. req’d) says the Yankees have been “one of the teams most visible at (Solometo’s) starts” this spring. That does not necessarily mean the Yankees are hot on Solometo, though this is the time of year when an increased scouting presence can hint at the direction a team is leaning. They’re getting as many eyes on him as possible.

It sounds like Solometo fits the “give me a guy with command and I’ll improve his velocity and spin” prospect mold, though that delivery is not pretty. Not pretty doesn’t mean bad! It’s just not the sort of delivery that hints at long-term strike-throwing ability or long-term durability. There are a lot of moving parts and exaggerated movements. Lots can go wrong there.

That said, the Yankees are not scared of unconventional deliveries. They helped Clarke Schmidt and James Kaprielian iron out the stiffness in their deliveries, and T.J. Sikkema doesn’t have textbook mechanics either. Then again, Schmidt and Kaprielian kept getting hurt (and Sikkema is MIA at the moment), so maybe that’s not the best sign for Solometo.

Ignore the weird delivery for a second and Solometo is interesting as a lefty with “outstanding command of (his fastball)” and a “chance to have three above-average pitches in the future.” I could see the Yankees going with Solometo as an out of nowhere surprise pick, though my hunch is they will lean college pitcher or any type of hitter with No. 20 over high school pitcher.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. According to Jon Heyman, MLB will begin cracking down on foreign substances in earnest after evidence showing their use is “very prevalent” was presented at the quarterly owners meetings this week. Apparently umpires will be empowered to look for foreign substances when pitchers enter the game. I am very much for this. Pitchers have enough of an advantage. It’s time to swing the pendulum back to the hitters a bit … We can call off the Delino DeShields Jr. watch. Andy Martino reports DeShields did not opt out of his minor league contract with the Rangers on June 1st (he was in their Triple-A lineup last night). That surprises me. I guess the Yankees weren’t interested after all, otherwise I imagine they would’ve communicated to DeShields’ representatives that they would sign him and put him on their MLB roster. Oh well. The search for the center fielder continues … Tuesday was June 1st, the opt out date for players with six years of service time on minor league contracts, and it appears all three veterans with Triple-A Scranton (Robinson Chirinos, Derek Dietrich, Adam Warren) are sticking around. Warren pitched Wednesday and Dietrich played Wednesday, so they didn’t opt out. Chirinos is away playing in an Olympic qualifier event with Team Venezuela, though he’s still listed on the RailRiders roster. This does not necessarily mean all three will stick around all season. They could have other opt out dates coming. For now though, they’re still in the organization.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Gregory asks: We need to be sellers at trade deadline. Time to break down this team. The core is flawed, injury prone, regressing, miserable to watch. Players like Judge are gonna need to be paid soon. Cash took a good shot, it didn't work, it happens.  But Yanks do have talent that can command stud prospects. Chapman, Green, Britton, once healed. Gleyber needs new start, new team, new position. Perfect time to trade Judge. Eat half of Stanton's contract in exchange for good prospects. What do you think about being big sellers at deadline, restock bare farm system, be back in two years with a real shot at WS, maybe Dominguez ready then, Cole still likely an ace. A true reset. What you say?

Strong disagree. The Yankees need to buy. I agree the core is “flawed, injury prone, regressing, miserable to watch,” but the Yankees are still so early in so many long-term contracts that this is as good as it’s going to get. Reset and wait two years, and you’re trying to win with 35-year-old DJ LeMahieu and 32-year-old Gerrit Cole. Remember what CC Sabathia looked like at age 32?

I’d rank the possible trade deadline outcomes like this, in order of likelihood:

1. Half-hearted buyer
2. Aggressive buyer
3. Stand pat
4. Seller

I’m not expecting much because of the luxury tax plan, though I think it’s much more likely the Yankees blow through the luxury tax threshold than it is they sell. As long as Cole is in his prime and Aaron Judge is wearing pinstripes, the Yankees have to go for it. We should all be livid if they choose to reset with Cole pitching as well as he’s ever going to pitch and Judge is still under team control.

For argument’s sake though, let’s say the Yankees do pivot and decide to sell. Who could they move? “Eat half of Stanton's contract in exchange for good prospects” is absolutely not a thing that will happen. Eat half of Giancarlo Stanton’s contract and your return will be half of Stanton’s contract worth of salary relief. He has negative trade value given the contract and injuries.

Is any team taking on the last five years of LeMahieu’s contract? Or the last four of Aaron Hicks’ contract? The answer is almost certainly no. Maybe there’s a bad contract for bad contract swap to be had, though that’s just rearranging furniture. Aroldis Chapman has a big salary and full no-trade clause that would have to be navigated. Corey Kluber’s value is nothing.

The Yankees could sell low on Miguel Andujar, Clint Frazier, Gleyber Torres, and Luke Voit, but wouldn’t you rather just keep them and see if they turn things around? Is trading Frazier for two mid-range Single-A kids really moving the needle? Judge would fetch a significant return (though probably not as significant as you may think), then the Yankees would spend the next 5-10 years trying to find a player as good as Aaron Judge.

Their best trade chips are Judge, Jordan Montgomery, Domingo German, and the bullpen. And by the bullpen, I mean Zack Britton (assuming a team is willing to take on the money), Chad Green, and Jonathan Loaisiga. I don’t think Lucas Luetge and Wandy Peralta are fetching much in a trade. (We know Peralta’s trade value. It’s Mike Tauchman.)

The Yankees are pretty darn good at building bullpens. For all the complaints about, say, Nick Nelson, just remember he is where Loaisiga was a few years ago. The Yankees know what they're doing with young pitchers. (So, patience.) The next Luetge is always a minor league contract away. Gutting the bullpen, getting close-to-MLB players, and rebuilding the bullpen with an eye on contending in 2022 the only plausible “seller” scenario I see.

I think contending with this core in 2021 and 2022 is more likely than selling pieces away at the trade deadline and climbing back into contention within two years. I’m as frustrated as anyone and I believe the Yankees missed their best opportunity to win with this core. Their best chance at a World Series was always going to be 2017-19, when the young guys were cheap, and they had to flexibility to add around them.

That doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t win in 2021-22. It just means it will more difficult than it would’ve been a few years ago. Selling isn’t going to happen, and even if it did, I’m not sure the Yankees have the pieces to get a return that will make a significant enough difference in the near future anyway. Trading Judge and a few relievers won’t build the next dynasty.

Lucky asks: Thoughts on trading for either Michael A. Taylor or Corey Dickerson to stick in centerfield? Taylor is cheap and plays good defense while Dickerson is left-handed, but on the expensive side (luxury tax speaking).

I am a Dickerson fan and I’ve written about him as a possible target several times the last few years, but he’s not a center fielder. He hasn’t played the position since 2015, when he was 26. Now he’s 32 and has played only 13.2 innings at a position other than left field since 2016 (13.2 innings in right in 2016). I’d take Dickerson to play left, but he’s not solving center field.

Taylor is probably the best realistic center field trade target under the luxury tax plan. He’s a real center fielder, which is a good start, and he’s cheap. His $1.75M salary prorates down to about $578,000 at the deadline. The Royals are bad and Taylor is an impending free agent, plus they have a few younger center fielders to try (Kyle Isbel, Edward Olivares). He’s obvious trade bait.

Taylor is hitting .250/.301/.388 (91 wRC+), which would represent a huge upgrade over what the Yankees have gotten from their center fielders this year. That said, Taylor had a 70-ish wRC+ five times in six years from 2015-20, and I’m not sure I buy a .368 BABIP being sustainable with a 35.3% strikeout rate and a 20.4% (!) swing-and-miss rate.

The defense is legitimately above-average and Taylor has speed, and squint your eyes and the top end exit velocity (110+ mph) hints at power potential. If nothing else, Taylor is a decent platoon partner for Brett Gardner. Maybe you get lucky and he has the three best months of his life in August, September, and October. Send them a Grade-C prospect and call it a deal.

Brian asks: I believe that allowing 13-14 pitchers on teams is the most obvious explanation for pitching dominance as it allows starters to exert max effort knowing that they don’t need to go deep, and relievers are unhittable because they can exert max effort and rest more. Why not advance a plan to gradually limit teams to 11 pitching roster spots (and control for abuse of the triple a shuttle)? Better than a 61’6” solution.

I am generally a “let teams do whatever they want with their rosters” guy but limiting the number of active pitchers is growing on me. For starters, this is a much easier solution than moving the mound back. Move the mound back in MLB and you have to move it back in the minors, in college, etc. It would be a massive undertaking (and who’s paying for it?).

Starting pitchers are the closest thing this game has to a main character and a pitcher limit would help return them to prominence. Limit the number of pitchers and you need more innings from your starters. It’s that simple. Also, it could also lead to relievers altering their approach (focus more on quick outs, etc.) so they can be available for multiple innings or back-to-back days.

In theory, offense would tick up because starters are going through the lineup a third time more often, and because relievers aren’t necessarily going max effort to get strikeouts at all times. A pitcher limit is going to increase bullpen shuttle transactions, but if the tradeoff is more contact and more offense and a more aesthetically pleasing game, then I’m all for it.

The league strikeout rate only goes up, historically. The only time it’s ever come down (or held steady for a bit) is when MLB intervened, like in 1969, when they lowered the mound and made the strike zone smaller. Continue to do nothing and strikeouts will only increase. Everything in the sport’s history tells us that, and I think it’s time to intervene again.

MLB was supposed to have a 13-pitcher/13-position player roster limit prior to the pandemic. Maybe next year they can go with 12 pitchers and 14 position players, then 11 pitchers and 15 position players in 2023? The Collective Bargaining Agreement is up this winter, so plan it in advance and adopt it gradually. Don’t just surprise teams with it before Spring Training.

Alessandro asks: Can we officially refer to this as the TOOTBLAN team?

Oh yeah, absolutely. The Yankees lead baseball in outs at home (12) and outs on the bases in general (28), and it wasn’t all that close either. The Orioles have the second most outs at home (eight) and the Cubs have the second most outs on the bases (22). The Yankees are the No. 1 TOOTBLAN team in the sport, bar none.

At the moment the Yankees are on pace for 80 outs on the bases this season, which seems like a lot, and it is, though it’s not an unprecedented total. The 2017 Red Sox made 81 outs on the bases and there’s always a team or three in the 70s in a given season. Still, it’s a lot of outs on the bases. The Yankees aren’t good enough offensively to keep giving up baserunners.

Outs on the bases are not created equally. There’s a difference between a great baserunning team having an aggressive runner thrown out going first-to-third on a single, and whatever the hell this is. The Yankees make a lot of outs on the bases because they’re a bad baserunning team, not because they have good baserunners who are aggressive.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)