May 7th, 2021: Odor, Urshela, Wilson, Peralta, Outfielders, Mailbag

It’s too bad the Yankees couldn’t complete the sweep yesterday, because that series would’ve gone down as the most satisfying, most cathartic series in a very long time. Maybe since the five-game Boston Massacre sweep in Fenway Park in 2006? Also, shoutout to the YES Network for never cutting the field mics and letting the profanity-filled chants fly all three games. Gotta love cable television. The Yankees are on pace to go 84-78 with 131 games remaining. Now for today’s thoughts.

1. Odor and Urshela injured. I’m not a Rougned Odor fan and I believe the Yankees can better use his lineup and roster spot, but I didn’t want the guy to get injured. Odor suffered a left knee sprain in that scary home plate collision with Martin Maldonado on Tuesday. Odor’s leg bent the wrong way and Maldonado took a knee to the head. Everything about this looks painful:

Maldonado passed concussion tests and escaped with a contusion, and was back in the lineup yesterday. Odor was placed on the 10-day injured list and seems to have avoided a major injury. There is no timetable for his return just yet, but it sounds like he will return at some point. For a while there it looked like we’d seen the last of Odor as a Yankee.

“I think all things considered, we kind of lucked out,” Aaron Boone told the Associated Press. “It looked ugly to me right away, and I was pretty concerned. So I think it’s going to be on the shorter side. I don’t want to speculate until Dr. Ahmad kind of gives that prognosis, but I don’t think it’s going to be too long.”

Gio Urshela, meanwhile, exited yesterday’s game with a knee injury after making a diving play in the eighth inning. He went for an MRI and we’re still waiting to hear the results. Even if the MRI brings good news and Urshela is day-to-day, the Yankees will have to make a roster move. They’re carrying three bench players and nine relievers right now. Need another bench guy.

“He was stable when they put him through the different knee tests and stuff inside here, but we’ll know more in the next couple hours,” Boone told Greg Joyce. “He’s not sure if it was on the dive or when he rolled the throw. It obviously stiffened up on him pretty good. Gio’s obviously a big part of what we do, so hopefully it’s nothing too serious.”

The Yankees have three position players on the 40-man roster in the minors: Miguel Andujar, Estevan Florial, and Oswald Peraza. Peraza is a Single-A kid and not an MLB option. Florial needs at-bats and should be an emergency call-up guy only. He doesn’t help replace Urshela anyway because he’s an outfielder. The Yankees need an infielder with Odor and Urshela out.

Andujar is the obvious call-up candidate. The Yankees could put him at third base, his most familiar position, and who knows, maybe Miggy Wally Pipps Gio the same way Gio Wally Pipped him in 2019. Andujar is talented enough to hit his way into the lineup full-time. It’s just a matter of the Yankees giving him an opportunity, which they’ve been reluctant to do.

The Yankees have had an open 40-man spot since Jay Bruce retired and could call up, say, Derek Dietrich or Andrew Velazquez, who offer more versatility and better defense than Andujar. The fact the Yankees called up a ninth reliever (Albert Abreu) rather than another position player when Odor got hurt tells us they expect Luke Voit back soon. It was a short-term thing.

If Voit’s return was still a few weeks away, I think the Yankees would have brought up a position player rather than Abreu. It seems like they don’t want to call Andujar up only to sit him on the bench a few days when he could instead get regular at-bats in Triple-A, which he really needs after the last two years. The Urshela injury changes things. Now at-bats are open.

Summoning Dietrich or Velazquez would be easy because there’s an open 40-man spot, but dropping them from the roster would be a pain. Both can elect free agency rather than report back to Triple-A, which means potentially losing them for what, a week on the big league bench? If it was a long-term need, sure, call them up. For a few days though? Nah.

Now that Urshela is hurt in addition to Odor, the Yankees have to call up another infielder. Unless it’s an extreme emergency, which this is not, you can’t play with only a catcher and an outfielder on the bench. Andujar, Dietrich, and Velazquez all played for Triple-A Scranton last night. Had one of them been held out, that would’ve suggested they are coming up.

(Kyle Holder started last night's RailRiders games and was pulled, so maybe he's coming up? Kinda redundant with Tyler Wade though, and he wouldn't help an offense that is still playing below expectations overall.)

Voit is 4-for-6 with a double and a home run through two minor league rehab games and Boone said the hope is he’ll return at some point during the 10-game road trip that begins Tuesday. He figures to replace Mike Ford on the roster and doesn’t change the need for another infielder until Odor or Urshela return. Carrying Ford and Voit is overkill.

The other day I was thinking the Yankees have been fortunate with injuries since Opening Day, so of course Odor and Urshela get hurt in one series. I hope this opens the door for Andujar, but I also don’t want Gio to miss much time, and I’m not sure the Yankees are going to give Miggy a chance anyway. Either way, a roster move is coming today. Another infielder is needed.

“I told him, ‘You need to tell the manager and get out,’” Gleyber Torres told Bryan Hoch about Urshela’s injury. “It’s just one game. We need him all the rest of the season. The guys told me it’s nothing so bad, so I feel like it’s just a little thing. We’re just waiting for the MRI and we’ll see what it is.”

2. Wandy and Wilson. It’s kinda funny the Yankees traded Adam Ottavino in part because Aaron Boone didn’t trust him, and then used a chunk of the luxury tax savings to sign a different reliever Boone doesn’t trust. Justin Wilson pitched for the second time in 10 days yesterday (nine games). The relief appearance totals during those 10 days:

1. Jonathan Loaisiga: 5
2. Aroldis Chapman: 4
3. Chad Green: 4
4. Lucas Luetge: 4
5. Wandy Peralta: 3
6. Luis Cessa: 2
7. Justin Wilson: 2
8. Darren O’Day: 1 (now injured)
9. Mike King: 1 (spent two of those 10 days in the minors)

Wilson is clearly behind Luetge in the Circle of Trust™ -- Luetge was brought in to face the middle of the order in tight spots twice in the Astros series -- and he might be behind Peralta too. Wandy, not Wilson, was summoned to face Jason Castro with two outs and the go-ahead run at first base in the seventh inning Wednesday*.

* I don’t think that is convincing evidence Peralta has jumped Wilson on the depth chart. That looked like a matchup thing to me. Since Opening Day 2018, Castro has been better against righties (108 wRC+) than lefties (37 wRC+), and better against fastballs (.405 xwOBA) than non-fastballs (.262 xwOBA), so the Yankees went with the lefty offspeed guy over the lefty fastball guy. Makes sense, right?

Boone’s lack of trust in Wilson is a Catch-22. Like most relievers, Wilson benefits from regular work, but Boone doesn’t use him often because he doesn’t trust him, so Wilson’s not getting the work he needs to stay sharp. He allowed two runs yesterday, two runs in his previous appearance five days ago, and one run in his previous appearance five days before that.

Relievers don’t get as much time to work through things as starters and position players simply because they don’t play as often, and there’s basically zero chance Wilson will pitch in anything more than mop-up duty now. He’s heading down the Tyler Clippard path. Clippard was bad in 2017 and the Yankees eventually determined he was most useful as a salary offset at the trade deadline.

Peralta’s looked pretty good in his week as a Yankee, striking out three in 2.1 scoreless innings. He’s funky, he throws 96 mph, and he believes in his secondary pitches enough that he threw Castro five changeups in a six-pitch at-bat. The Yankees already have their Wilson replacement! Here’s another lefty throwing 96, except this one has secondary pitches.

The bullpen has been excellent this year and it finally had a meltdown yesterday. What can you do? Those games happen. The pitch Jose Altuve hit wasn’t even close to the strike zone either. Chad Green got into trouble because he couldn’t locate his curveball, but he executed the elevated fastball to Altuve, and Altuve just went up and got it. Look at this:

Altuve looks like he’s about three feet tall there. Even with yesterday’s loss, the Yankees have allowed no more than three runs nine times in their last 14 games (they allowed four runs in three of the other five games). They’ve allowed 3.52 runs per game overall, third fewest in MLB. The pitching has been so good, the bullpen especially, even with Wilson persona non grata.

3. Early trade deadline thoughts. The Yankees are about two weeks away from playing their 54th game and reaching the one-third point of the season. The old adage is you spend the first third of the season evaluating your roster, the middle third making changes, and the final third riding those changes out. I’m not sure how true that is these days, but that’s the old saying.

With the caveat that there is a lot of season still to be played, it looks like the Yankees may need outfield help at the trade deadline. The numbers are ghastly:

• Yankees left fielders: .190/.297/.280 (71 wRC+)
• Yankees center fielders: .196/.289/.339 (83 wRC+)

Their first basemen are hitting .154/.250/.256 (50 wRC+), though at least Luke Voit is coming to fix that problem. There’s no such help coming for the outfield. Of course, Aaron Hicks is 9-for-20 (.450) in his last six games, and Clint Frazier went deep yesterday, so maybe the tide is turning. We’ve been teased before though, and even then it doesn’t hurt to window shop.

In-house outfield options include giving Brett Gardner more playing time (though less is more at this point in Gardner’s career) or throwing Miguel Andujar in left field. The Triple-A outfield (Greg Allen, Trey Amburgey, Socrates Brito, Ryan LaMarre) offers no help, and Estevan Florial isn’t MLB ready. He needs a full year’s worth of at-bats in the minors. The Bronx isn’t the place for him right now.

Meaningful April trades are rare -- there were five player-for-player trades last month and the Mike Tauchman/Wandy Peralta deal was the most notable (and the only one with big leaguers going both ways) -- though May trades are a bit more frequent. Smart rebuilding teams get a jump on the market and move players before supply outweighs demand. Smart contenders get help early.

I don’t expect the Yankees to make a significant trade anytime soon (at this point, giving Hicks and Frazier time to get on track is a sensible move), but that won’t stop me from looking ahead to July 31st. Ideally, the Yankees would bring in a legitimate everyday lefty hitting outfielder who could play center field in a pinch. Here are a few potential targets.

Charlie Blackmon, Rockies

We’re starting with the “lolwtf?” trade candidate because … I’m going alphabetically. Blackmon is off to a .204/.315/.333 (69 wRC+) start this year and last year’s .303/.356/.448 batting line works out to only a 97 wRC+ because of Coors Field. Since Opening Day 2019, Blackmon has hit .334/.392/.597 (130 wRC+) at Coors Field and .259/.324/.431 (100 wRC+) on the road.

But! But DJ LeMahieu taught us not to judge Rockies players by their home/road splits, right? Nolan Arenado is having a good year and Matt Holliday hit outside Coors Field. Good hitters will get theirs anywhere, and as LeMahieu showed, it’s possible for a hitter to leave Coors Field and get better. LeMahieu could vouch for Blackmon in the clubhouse too.

The problem: Blackmon’s contract includes a $21M player option for next season and a $10M player option for 2023, and you have to assume he’ll pick those up. Rockies GM Jeff Bridich stepped down last week, so the team is a little less dumb, though perhaps ownership will be willing to eat a bunch of money to move Blackmon like they were to move Arenado.

Trading for Blackmon is not all that dissimilar from trading for Rougned Odor. The Yankees will go with a discounted player who could be good over a market value player who is good, so if the Rockies make the money work, Blackmon’s contact-oriented lefty bat could catch the Yankees’ attention. I don’t think it’s likely. I wouldn’t call it impossible either.

Mark Canha, Athletics

Pretty eventful start to the season for the A’s. They started 0-6, then won 13 straight, and are now 5-7 in their last 12 games. At 19-14, they have the American League’s second best record, and they figure to be in the AL West race all year. Oakland always tends to go for it, so I’d bet on them adding pieces at the deadline, not trading core players away.

That said, I’m mentioning Canha here because Oakland could fall out of the race between now and the deadline, and he’s a rental. He’s a classic A’s type who has a near-.400 OBP in his last 900 plate appearances and 20-homer power. The outfield defense is so-so at best, though Canha has played all three outfield spots as well as first base. He’s a righty hitter.

I wouldn’t bet on the A’s falling out of the race (only the Dodgers have gone to the postseason more times since 2012) but it is possible, particularly given some of their recent pitching issues. Canha has quietly hit .262/.392/.469 (140 wRC+) without striking out excessively the last three years. He would not be out of place in a contender’s lineup.

Corey Dickerson & Starling Marte, Marlins

Dickerson is a left-handed hitter and a good one. Marte is a center fielder and a good one. Too bad we can’t mash them together into one player who fits what the Yankees need. Dickerson is a left fielder only and he’s not bad defensively, but you can’t put him in center. Marte is a righty hitter and a really good one at that, though he wouldn’t address the lineup imbalance.

The Marlins are the only NL East team with a positive run differential, but they’re also in fourth place, and their best chance at a postseason spot involves pushing their young pitchers harder than I think they’re willing to push them this year. To me, it feels like next year is their breakout year, making Marte and Dickerson obvious trade candidates as impending free agents.

Marte’s had some bad luck injuries (broken bones on hit by pitches, etc.) the last two years and is currently out with a rib fracture. The Yankees had interest in him last year, remember, and that interest could linger. Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon are available to give input into their former Pirates teammate, and the Marlins have had a thing for Yankees prospects since Derek Jeter and Gary Denbo took over, which could help facilitate a trade.

Dickerson is a personal favorite and he’s hitting .326/.414/.442 (144 wRC+) this year, and he’s a low-ish strikeout hitter (16.8% since 2018) with big time plate coverage. He can tomahawk elevated fastballs and golf breaking balls below the zone. The Yankees are into exit velocity and Dickerson’s average exit velocity in the early going is unimpressive (86 mph), which may be a hangup.

Anyway, the Marlins are an obvious trade partner as a quasi-rebuilding team with two impending free agent veterans who (probably) aren’t part of their long-term plans. Marte is the better player but Dickerson might be the better lineup fit as a lefty hitter, and may provide more bang for the buck depending on Miami’s asking prices.

Joey Gallo, Rangers

The Rangers are rebuilding and Gallo is a year away from free agency, plus he’s a Scott Boras client and thus less likely to sign an extension, so it was no surprise when Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reported Texas has been listening to offers for Gallo since last year’s trade deadline. You might as well listen, right? There’s no harm in taking a few phone calls.

Gallo lights up Statcast with big exit velocities, a rocket throwing arm, and sneaky great outfield defense. He’s good enough defensively that you could put him in center field for a few weeks. Gallo will also rank among the league leaders in walks, and he’ll even steal a few bases. The downside is a batting average near .200 and a strikeout rate north of 30%.

A flawed player? No doubt. A productive one who would make the Yankees better? Absolutely, especially given the overall production in left and center field. I don’t like the idea of adding another high strikeout hitter to a lineup with Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, but perhaps the defensive upgrade and extra year of control is worth the trade off.

Mitch Haniger, Mariners

This is Jerry Dipoto’s 12th year as a general manager and his teams have made the postseason once (2014 Angels). If you’re looking for someone to lead a perpetual rebuild, he’s your guy. Dipoto acquired Haniger in the early days of the current rebuild and he might trade him for prospects as part of the same rebuild seeing how Haniger is a year away from free agency.

A series of core muscle injuries limited Haniger to 63 games in 2019 and zero games in 2020. He’s been solid in his return this year, hitting .254/.300/.531 (134 wRC+), and in his two fully healthy seasons in 2017 and 2018, he hit .284/.361/.492 (134 wRC+) with power and steals and defense. Haniger has a history of good exit velocities and he’s a gamer who plays with an edge.

The injuries and relatively short-term control will limit Haniger’s trade value, and the Yankees are all about buying low on talented players. Brian Cashman and Dipoto are frequent trade partners -- they’ve made nine trades since Dipoto took over in Seattle in 2015, including several notable deals (Edwin Encarnacion, James Paxton, etc.) -- and could team up again.

A lefty hitter is ideal, but a good hitter is the priority, and Haniger is a good hitter who happens to hit from the right side. Also, he’s good enough defensively that you could stick him in center field for a few weeks at a time too. My hunch is the Mariners are more likely to extend Haniger and make him that veteran leader during the rebuild, though I wouldn’t rule out a trade.

Joc Pederson, Cubs

The NL Central is as mediocre as expected, and at any given moment the team in first place is the team that went 4-2 last week. It could be the Cubs at this time next week! Or the Cubs could be in fourth place. They’ve run very hot and cold this year, with several prolonged losing streaks but also several blowout wins. Been a wild few weeks in Chicago.

Pederson is close to an ideal target as a rental lefty bat with big market and World Series experience, and knack for raising his game in October (career 127 wRC+ in the postseason vs. 116 wRC+ during the regular season). You can put him in center in an emergency, though he fits best in a corner. The downside is Pederson absolutely can not hit lefties (career 56 wRC+) and needs a platoon partner.

In Spring Training, Pederson hit .378/.471/1.000 and looked like the best signing ever. He’s currently hitting .143/.286/.232 (56 wRC+). Spring Training, man. Full of lies. Pederson had a rough year last year (88 wRC+) but he is an exit velocity guy, he’s a lefty who pulls the ball a ton (hello short porch), and he’s regarded as an A+ clubhouse guy. Flawed player, but a good one.

The Cubs have a ton of rentals and I expect them to be aggressive sellers if they’re out of the race come the trade deadline. I think they’re good enough to hang around the race all year, but they could trade Pederson anyway. He figures to be the top rental outfielder on the market, or at least the most recognizable name. Pederson will be a popular target.

David Peralta, Diamondbacks

Peralta is similar to Dickerson as a lefty hitting corner bat who’s been an above-average hitter just about every season of his career, including this one (.290/.350/.486 and 122 wRC+). There are three key differences between the two: Peralta is two years older (33), he’s not a rental (owed $7.5M next year), and his exit velocities are more in line with the Yankees’ preferences.

The D’Backs are stuck in the brutal NL West, so their upside is the second Wild Card spot, and they’re hovering around .500 despite a recent 10-3 stretch. Even if they hang around the race, they’ve done the “buy and sell at the same time” thing before, most notably when they traded away Zack Greinke while adding Zac Gallen and Mike Leake at the 2019 deadline.

Peralta is a big clubhouse guy in Arizona and I’m not sure they’d give him away, but I don’t think they’d make him off-limits either. They have several high-end outfield prospects coming, and they’ve adhered to a strict budget in recent years, so saving that $7.5M next year could be a priority. I am: intrigued. There’s a possible fit here.

Kyle Schwarber, Cubs

I’m mentioning Schwarber out of obligation at this point. He’s on a one-year deal and we know the Yankees loved him at one point in time. His lefty power would fit well in Yankee Stadium and balance the lineup a little bit. Schwarber is hitting only .187/.265/.333 (62 wRC+) this year, though he missed the first few weeks as the Nationals dealt with a COVID-19 outbreak.

Washington is in last place in the NL East at 12-15 and everything in GM Mike Rizzo’s track record tells us he’ll add pieces and go for it at the deadline as long as they’re within striking distance. They’re going to have to crash hard these next few weeks, which is possible, though the rest of the NL East is so blah that they just might hang around the race.

4. 2021 draft prospect: Wake Forest RHP Ryan Cusick. The 2021 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d) reports MLB has informed teams the draft will be 20 rounds, the minimum number allowed under last year’s March agreement. The Yankees hold the No. 20 pick. Here is our 2021 draft prospect coverage archive.

Cusick, 21, turned down the Reds out of his Massachusetts high school as their 40th round pick in 2018. He followed through on his commitment to Wake Forest and had a rough freshman year (6.44 ERA in 65.2 innings), though he impressed as a sophomore before the pandemic shut the season down (3.22 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 22.1 innings).

In two summer ball stints Cusick owns a 2.73 ERA with 73 strikeouts in 59.1 innings against wood bats. This spring he has a 3.79 ERA with 83 strikeouts in 52.2 innings. MLB.com ranks Cusick as the 19th best prospect in the draft class and Baseball America (subs. req’d) has him 30th. Here’s video and here’s a snippet of MLB.com’s scouting report:

Cusick's money pitch is his fastball, which can sit at 94-97 mph with high spin rates and riding action deep into games and has been clocked as high as 102. After struggling to come up with a reliable breaking ball, he has shown a much-improved 79-82 mph curveball this spring that can be a plus pitch at its best. He also has a sinking changeup that shows flashes of becoming a solid offering when he uses it, as well as a mid-80s slider that gets slurvy.

There isn't much effort in Cusick's delivery and his arm works well, but he has yet to provide consistent strikes. As impressive as his arm strength is, he'll have to be more efficient to succeed as a starter at higher levels. His huge 6-foot-6 frame and high arm slot provide angle and plane on his pitches and add to the difficulty of trying to barrel them.

For what it’s worth, Baseball America (subs. req’d) has the Yankees selecting Cusick in their latest mock draft, though it appears to be speculation rather than a firm connection. Baseball America typically notes when a team is hot on a player and there’s no indication the Yankees are on Cusick at the moment.

Not too long ago Cusick would’ve been right in the Yankees' wheelhouse as a physically huge pitcher with big velocity, though they've gotten away from that profile a bit, and have begun to prioritize command over stuff (T.J. Sikkema, Beck Way, etc.). The thinking is you can help a guy throw harder or sharpen his breaking ball, but command is difficult to teach.

Throwing strikes has been an issue for Cusick -- (18 walks in 22.1 innings last year and 23 walks in 52.2 innings this year) though the stuff is impressive. If you’re going to take a swing on a guy with a power arm, Cusick is the one to target. My hunch is the Yankees will seek a more command-oriented pitcher, if they even go with a pitcher in the first round (they’ve been position player heavy early in the last few drafts).

5. Rapid fire thoughts. The Angels designated future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols for assignment yesterday. The Yankees love free players as much as any team, but there’s no fit here. Not with Luke Voit about a week away and Giancarlo Stanton locked in at DH. I’m not sure Pujols ever plays again, honestly. Maybe he’ll do a one-game farewell appearance with the Cardinals this weekend (they’re at home) and call it a career? … You can now get a COVID-19 vaccination at Yankees (and Mets) games. They’ll give you a free ticket too. Here are the details. Starting May 19th, Yankee Stadium will have separate sections for vaccinated and unvaccinated fans, with no social distancing or capacity requirements for the vaccinated sections. That sounds … terrible? I mean, it’s great we’re getting closer to normalcy, but I’d rather have an empty section to myself than be packed into a full section. Easy going nights in half-empty ballparks are an underrated joy. That’s just me though. Anyway, go see the Yankees and get a jab while you’re there. It’s a win-win … And finally, the Blue Jays are returning to Buffalo. Earlier this week the team announced they will begin playing home games at Sahlen Field on June 1st (they upgraded and renovated the ballpark extensively since last year). Playing home games at their Spring Training park was always a temporary solution because the summer weather in Florida and open air stadiums are a bad combination, so Buffalo it is. The Yankees played the Blue Jays in Florida last month, and they’ll visit them again from June 15th to 17th, and from Sept. 28th to 30th. I am weirdly hoping they play the three series in three different places, though I’m not sure a return to Toronto will happen this season.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Alec asks: After reviewing DJ LeMahieu's baseball savant page, I noticed the major difference in his exit velocity from last year to this year. DJ has always been attractive as a hitter because of how hard he hits the ball. This concerns me more so than his approach. Am I missing something here or should we be concerned about him moving forward. Thanks.

Exit velocity stabilizes very quickly (roughly 40 balls in play) and LeMahieu is well beyond that point now, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate (i.e. rate of batted balls over 95 mph) are down significantly. The last few years:

• 2019: 91.9 mph and 48.3%
• 2020: 91.3 mph and 45.7%
• 2021: 88.9 mph and 42.6%

LeMahieu’s average exit velocity decline from 2020 to 2021 is 22nd largest in the game among the 197 qualified hitters. LeMahieu also has his highest strikeout rate (16.5%) since 2015 and his second highest swing-and-miss rate (6.5%) since 2014. Still excellent rates! But not what LeMahieu does normally. Hmmm.

"When the team needs it the most, hits aren't exactly falling now. For me or anyone,'' LeMahieu told Dan Martin last week. "We're pressing offensively. I know we're gonna be better than we've been. It's extremely frustrating. All I can say is we're all frustrated."

Needless to say, the exit velocity decline and strikeout rate increase (and .336 SLG!) in the first month of a six-year contract is not ideal, especially because LeMahieu is a second baseman, and the second base aging curve can be harsh (though that may be changing now that runners can’t break up the double play). LeMahieu hasn’t looked much like 2019-20 LeMahieu in 2021.

We’re only talking about 133 plate appearances though, and I’m sure we could go back and find other 133 plate appearance stretches in which LeMahieu struck out a bunch and didn’t hit the ball as hard as usual. I mean, look at his exit velocities by year from 2016-2020: 91.8 mph, 89.3 mph, 91.4 mph, 91.9 mph, 91.3 mph. That outlier year in 2017 was just that, an outlier year.

I’m not worried about LeMahieu yet but the slow start has my attention. It’s not like he’s been bad this year (.267/.361/.336 and 108 wRC+). He just hasn’t been as good as he was the last two years. The offense as a whole has underperformed this season and LeMahieu has definitely contributed to that.

Philip asks: Gumby seems too strong in the early innings on an extra day’s rest. (Suzyn and John have pointed this out, too.) Any chance, despite his recent injury, Jordan can go every 5 days? I ask because I think he’s got a higher ceiling than many, and I think he’s possibly on the verge of breaking out. I’d love to know your thoughts.

I’m not sure this is an extra rest thing as much as it is a "Jordan Montgomery usually needs an inning or two to settle in" thing (he was good early in his start this week before faltering a bit in the middle innings). For his career, Montgomery is a tick better on normal rest, but not so much that it appears to be meaningful. The numbers:

• Normal rest: 4.36 ERA and 105 OPS+ allowed (18 starts)
• One extra day: 4.50 ERA and 106 OPS+ allowed (22 starts)
• Two or more extra days: 2.91 ERA and 74 OPS+ (12 starts)

When you break it down by pitch count, Montgomery is most effective after his first 25 pitches. Those first 25 pitches are a grind for whatever reason. Not coincidentally, Montgomery has a 4.38 ERA (4.11 FIP) in the first and second innings, and a 3.99 ERA (4.00 FIP) thereafter. Here are the pitch count numbers. After the first 25 pitches, he’s a tick better than league average:

• Pitches 1-25: 112 OPS+ allowed
• Pitches 26-50: 93 OPS+ allowed
• Pitches 51-75: 100 OPS+ allowed
• Pitches 75-100: 96 OPS+ allowed

“I’ve been having issues with (first inning runs) forever,” Montgomery told Dan Martin earlier this week. “I’m kind of sick of not being as good as I should be out there. With the spring I had, I was feeling really good. I just know I can be better. I’m trying to do that.”

To me, it’s on Montgomery to make an adjustment and get over this “first 25 pitches” hump (with the Yankees’ help, of course). I don’t think his early inning issues are tied to days of rest. Kevin Brown had this problem too and the Yankees had him throw a simulated inning in the bullpen before starts. Maybe that works with Montgomery? Do you want him wasting those bullets?

The Yankees are giving their starters so much extra rest this year in an effort to keep them healthy and effective, and a) it's working! (no rotation injuries yet), and b) this is the first time Montgomery is pitching in April and May since 2018, remember. He was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery in 2019 and there was the shutdown in 2020. The Yankees are smart to be cautious with him. It’s for his own good.

Steve asks: We all know the Yankees love signing former Red Sox players. Who's the next one? My vote goes to Rafael Devers in three years. The Yankees haven't had an elite LHB since Cano left, and he could pop 50 in Yankee Stadium with the short porch with his easy power. He'll be expensive, but it's the Yankees, they can afford it and his contract is up at the same time Gio Urshela's is up.

Devers is a good one. He’s an elite exit velocity guy (which the Yankees love) who plays what figures to be a position of need (though he’s bad defensively) and will hit free agency at a young age (27). Add in the Red Sox glow and that’s a recipe for a Jacoby Ellsbury style overpayment. I’m not sure the Yankees will have the appetite for another massive long-term deal so soon though.

Eduardo Rodriguez will become a free agent this winter. The Yankees don’t do multi-year contracts for non-elite starters who haven’t previously worn pinstripes, but the power of the Red Sox could compel them to pursue Rodriguez, who turned only 28 last month and is pretty darn good. I think the Red Sox will find a way to extend him, but Rodriguez is a real possibility.

I’m going to go with catcher Christian Vazquez. He turns 31 in August and he’ll be a free agent after next season, assuming the Red Sox pick up his $7M club option this winter. The Yankees are done with Gary Sanchez and Kyle Higashioka isn’t a starter, so Vazquez would give them a veteran bridge until Austin Wells or Anthony Seigler or whoever gets a chance.

Sleeper candidate: Matt Barnes. Most of the bullpen will hit free agency after next season (Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, and even Darren O’Day and Justin Wilson depending on their player options). Barnes will be a free agent this winter and I could see the Yankees giving him a multi-year deal with an eye on him being part of the bullpen post-2022 purge.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)