May 4th, 2021: Cole, Stanton, Frazier, O’Day, Prospects

At long last, Yankees fans have someone to boo other than the Yankees. The Astros are in town for a three-game series beginning tonight and I imagine the 10,000 or so fans at Yankee Stadium will let them hear it. After all, the commissioner said public shaming is part of their sign-stealing punishment, so shame away. As for the on-field stuff, the Yankees have not played a team as talented as the Astros yet this season, so this series will be a nice little measuring stick. They can’t get revenge now -- revenge only comes in October -- but a series win in May would be neat too. The Yankees are on pace to go 81-81 with 134 games remaining. Let’s get to today’s thoughts.

1. Weekend observations. Nothing quite like a series against the Tigers to right the ship, eh? The Tigers are truly awful. This is Year 5 of their rebuild and there are maybe what, three players on the roster who can be part of the next contending Tigers team? Jeimer Candelario is already three years away from free agency. Detroit got him as a prospect as part of this rebuild and they’re going to wind up trading him for prospects as part of the same rebuild. Yeesh.

Anyway, the Yankees are back even at .500 after a 5-2 week against the Orioles and Tigers. I’m glad Corey Kluber is making me look stupid, less glad Rougned Odor continues to hit in the middle of the order, and perplexed Gleyber Torres has seemingly lost the ability to drive the baseball. Hard to believe he hit 38 homers only two years ago. Here are some thoughts following the weekend.

Gerrit the Great

Gerrit Cole just wrapped up one of the most dominant months in Yankees history. He bowled over an admitted terrible Tigers lineup Friday, though Cole’s stuff was so good he would’ve had his way with just about any lineup. His numbers through six starts are straight out of a video game: 37.2 IP, 24 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 62 K. Yesterday he became the first Yankee to be named AL Pitcher of the Month since Masahiro Tanaka in May 2014.

Cole has already tied the single-season franchise record with four 10-strikeout, zero-walk starts and it’s only May 4th (Mike Mussina had four such starts in 2001). Good chance that record gets shattered this year. He is also one of only three pitchers in history with at least 62 strikeouts and no more than three walks in a six-start span, joining Curt Schilling in 2002 and Clayton Kershaw in 2016.

The splits database at FanGraphs goes back to 2002. Here’s where Cole’s April ranks among the 296 instances of a pitcher throwing at least 30 innings in a calendar month with the Yankees since then:

• 1.43 ERA (third lowest, Hiroki Kuroda leads with a 0.55 ERA in July 2013)
• 0.46 FIP (lowest, Andy Pettitte is second with a 1.57 FIP in July 2002)
• 44.3 K% (highest, James Paxton is second with 36.3 K% in April 2019)
• 2.1 BB% (14th lowest, David Wells accounts for six of the 13 months ahead of Cole)
• 42.1 K-BB% (highest, Masahiro Tanaka is second with 30.8 K-BB% in July 2017)
• .193 wOBA allowed (third lowest, Luis Severino leads with a .187 wOBA in Sept. 2017)

Opponents are hitting .178/.200/.237 against Cole in the early going. Jay Bruce had a .231 OBP and a .235 SLG as a Yankee when he retired. Thairo Estrada hit .167/.231/.229 last year. That’s the level of dominance we’re talking about. Cole is turning just about every hitter he faces this year into 2020 Estrada or 2021 Bruce.

Similar to Kluber, Cole is a bit of a slow starter, historically. In 2019, the last full 162-game season, Cole had a 4.11 ERA (3.12 FIP) through 11 starts and 65.2 innings. It was a 1.78 ERA (2.42 FIP) in his final 22 starts and 146.2 innings. Instead of a slow start, Cole has been the best pitcher in the American League this year, and arguably the best in baseball overall.

“I came out with a goal to try to settle in a bit earlier this year,” Cole told Greg Joyce following Friday’s start. “I think I’m on the right track to do that.”

At some point Cole is going to get whacked with the home run rate regression stick -- I love the guy, but one homer every 37.2 innings (0.24 HR/9 and 2.9% HR/FB) isn’t gonna last -- but no matter. He’s throwing the ball as well as he has at any point in his career, and as well (or better) than any Yankee in the last 20 years. An ace in every sense of the term.

Stanton’s hot streak

It was only a matter of time until Giancarlo Stanton warmed up at the plate. Stanton bottomed out at .158/.238/.333 (59 wRC+) on April 21st. In the nine games since he’s hit .436/.450/.718 (235 wRC+) to raise his overall season batting line to .271/.320/.490 (128 wRC+). That’s below his career average (142 wRC+), so there’s still even more room to improve.

“I’m on time for the fastball,” Stanton told Joyce over the weekend. “I was swinging through a lot of those in the zone, which then makes everything else (difficult). You’re picking everything else up a little later and just in-between. When you can square up the heater and adjust to the rest, that’s when I’m at my best.”

Stanton recently had back-to-back-to-back three-hit games (Gio Urshela did that in 2019, and the last Yankee to do it before him was Alfonso Soriano in 2013) and his contact quality is just insane. No one hits the ball as hard as consistently as this guy.

Going into last night’s games Giancarlo owned the top four and nine of the top 10 hardest hit balls in MLB this year. He is still hitting the ball on the ground a little too much though. Stanton had a 65.5% (!) ground ball rate when we checked in two and a half weeks ago. Now it’s down to 55.9%, which is better, but still too high. His career average is 42.5% grounders.

Not surprisingly, Stanton’s production has ticked up as the ground ball rate has gone down the last few weeks. There’s a pretty clear correlation between his (and most power hitters’) overall production and ground ball rate. When one goes up, the other goes down, and vice versa.

We are oversaturated with exit velocity these days (I know I’m guilty of it) but the core “hit the ball hard and good things happen” philosophy has existed since Day 1 of the sport. It’s just that we can measure it now. Stanton’s hard-hit ability allows him to get more hits on grounders than the average hitter. This year’s BABIP leaders on ground balls (min. 25 grounders):

1. Mike Trout: .462 (fast and hits the ball hard)
2. Austin Riley: .433
3. Byron Buxton: .429 (fast and hits the ball hard)
4. Cedric Mullins: .425 (fast)
5. Giancarlo Stanton: .395 (hits the ball hard)
   (MLB average: .229)

The grounders are going for hits more now than they were a few weeks ago and that’s good, and it’s led to Stanton’s hot streak. He’s at his best when he gets the ball airborne though. Stanton is starting to elevate the ball more and yet there’s still (much) more room for improvement. Once his ground ball rate approaches his career average, he’ll really take off.

“It seems like he’s hitting two and three balls breaking Statcast every night with some of the balls he’s hitting,” Aaron Boone told Joyce. “So I just think he’s in a good place in his season, in his process and his game plan. I think he has a lot of conviction right now when he’s walking up there, with what he’s looking for and what he’s trying to do. He’s been able to execute. It’s good to see him where he’s at right now.”

Clint’s new-ish stance

Clint Frazier is kinda sorta starting to come out of his early season slump. He went 2-for-20 during the eight-game road trip, but drew seven walks and struck out only five times, so he was seeing the ball well, and he made several loud outs as well. That includes a near home run in Cleveland and an even nearer home run in Baltimore.

Frazier had a double and a home run last Wednesday and another homer Friday. He’s been on base 14 times in his last 11 games after reaching base 10 times in his first 12 games. Clint still ranks near the bottom of the league in average exit velocity (83.0 mph!), though this would seem to be a positive trend:

More swings at pitches in the zone, more contact on swings at pitches in the zone, and more hard-hit balls. Clint has one of the slowest swing rates in baseball overall (35.4% the last two years compared to the 46.5% league average), and it was way down earlier this year. He’d look at two strikes, put himself in a quick hole, then occasionally take strike three.

Looking at pitches in the zone and falling behind in the count is no way to hit. That doesn’t mean you should swing at everything in the zone, but there was definitely room for Frazier to get a little more aggressive. He’s done that more lately (relatively speaking because his swing rate is still lower than average) and the results are starting to come.

Clint also changed his batting stance recently. How he’s able to hit with his front heel facing the pitcher, I will never know, but he had a .264/.397/.511 (149 wRC+) line with it last year, so who am I to argue? Recently though, Frazier has toned it down and now has his front foot in a more conventional position. The YES Network put up this side-by-side comparison last week:

Still unconventional, for sure, but now there’s a little less movement and rotation in Frazier’s swing. Whether this helps Clint produce long-term remains to be seen. There are some signs he is starting to snap out of it, but the leash will only be so long, and at the end of the day this is a results-based business, and the results have to start coming more consistently.

“I really needed it,” Frazier told Dan Martin about his home run in Baltimore last week. “I’m happy to be on the board.”

2. O’Day lands on the injured list. I had a feeling something was up with Darren O’Day. He pitched once in a seven-day span recently (April 15th to 22nd) even though there where a few situations he’d normally pitch, and his last few outings have been a grind (5.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 HR, 1 HBP). Also, his velocity has been down, even by his standards.

The Yankees placed O’Day on the 10-day injured list with a rotator cuff strain Saturday and Mike King was called back up to fill the roster spot. I’m glad King is back with the big league team, he deserves to be in the Bronx, though it’s a bummer it took an injury to get him back. The Yankees will be without their side-winding setup man for the foreseeable future.

“He’s kind of been cranky in the shoulder really all month. Started out a little bit early, but he was able obviously to pitch through it,” Aaron Boone told Kristie Ackert. “Actually, the middle of the month was starting to feel pretty good and was kind of a non-issue and then over the last few days it still was just kind of in there cranky. So decided to get it looked at and found that there was a strain in there. So obviously he’s got to be shut down now for a few weeks.”

O’Day missed about a month with a shoulder strain in 2011, then again in 2016, and then again in 2017, so he has a history with this, and each time he’s come back fine. Of course, he is now 38, and 38-year-olds don’t recover as well as younger folks (trust me, I’m speaking from experience here). Based on history, O’Day is looking at about a month on the sidelines.

Not a whole lot to say about O’Day’s injury at this point. There are eight (or more) pitchers in the bullpen at any given moment and chances are one of them will get hurt. That’s baseball. Jonathan Loaisiga’s emergence means the Yankees still have a second strong righty setup option alongside Chad Green, and Lucas Luetge has seemingly jumped Justin Wilson in the Circle of Trust™.

Zack Britton recently started playing catch and he is eligible to return May 30th, so as long as he doesn’t hit a bump during his buildup, he could return before O’Day. Loaisiga is going to have to take on a little more responsibility during O’Day’s absence, and surely there will be times it feels like the Yankees are a high-leverage reliever short, but that’s life. Deal with injuries as best you can.

“He’s dealt with this I think the last several years,” Boone told Ackert. “I think talk to any pitcher -- any relief pitcher, any veteran relief pitcher -- I mean, you’re going to deal with things throughout the year even when you don’t go down or whatever. This is enough to where it does require a few weeks shut down and hopefully with that he can get this thing right and still be an important part of our bullpen moving forward.”

3. 2021 prospect preview. For the first time since 2019, minor league baseball will be played later today. The minor league season was canceled because of the pandemic last year, and this year’s minor league season was pushed back a month. At long last, real minor league games will be played, and that means we can resume following prospects.

The easiest place to keep an eye on minor league games is MLB.com's affiliate tracker. It gives you the box score at every level in one place (updated live), including the MLB team, and it’s easy to click over to their scouting reports. As a reminder, MLB is testing different rules at each level in the minors this season, so we’ll have to keep that in mind when looking at stats.

The Yankees announced their Opening Day minor league roster assignments over the weekend and we can finally see how they will handle their prospects post-pandemic. For the most part, the Yankees sent their players where they were projected to begin last year. How long they stay there is another matter entirely. This won’t be a normal season.

“We’re going to try to ramp up guys very slowly, and hopefully put them in the best position to succeed long term,” farm system head Kevin Reese told Bryan Hoch. “It’s not like, ‘Hey, let’s get rolling and fire away.’ We’ve been discussing that as an organization, both at the Major League and minor league levels.”

With all that in mind, let’s break down the Opening Day rosters, shall we? I’m going to reference my top 30 prospects list (and not top 30 prospects) throughout.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Top 30 prospects: RHP Deivi Garcia (No. 2), RHP Nick Nelson (No. 12), RHP Albert Abreu (No. 16). I imagine RHP Clarke Schmidt (No. 3) will join the RailRiders once he recovers from his common extensor tendon strain. He recently started playing catch and is still several weeks away from game action. Deivi is the cream of the crop here, clearly.

Other notable prospects: OF Trey Amburgey, 1B Chris Gittens, RHP Brooks Kriske, RHP Addison Russ. Kriske is on the 40-man roster and an up-and-down bullpen option. Gittens puts up enormous exit velocities but has limited bat-to-ball skills and defensive value, not unlike Mike Ford. Amburgey and Russ are fringy prospects far down the MLB depth chart.

As expected, the Triple-A roster looks an awful lot like the alternate site roster. 19 players on the RailRiders roster have MLB experience, including longtime big leaguers C Robinson Chirinos, UTIL Derek Dietrich, and RHP Adam Warren, plus there’s 3B/OF Miguel Andujar. Andujar played some first base at the alternate site and that will continue during the regular season.

Keep in mind the big league team takes a five-man taxi squad on road trips (one of the five must be a catcher), hence the oversized 31-man Triple-A roster. A catcher, an infielder, an outfielder, and two arms is the usual taxi squad arrangement, though the four non-catcher spots can be whatever the team wants. There are no other requirements.

Coaching staff: If you’re interested in such things, here is the 2021 RailRiders coaching staff:

That’s Doug Davis the former big league infielder (and bench coach with the 2003 World Series champion Marlins), not the former big league lefty. This is his second year with the organization. Glant and Dykes were new hires last year, before the minor league season was put on ice, so this will be their first real season in the organization. Dominguez, Henshaw, London, and Wingate have been with Scranton a few years now.

Double-A Somerset Patriots

Top 30 prospects: RHP Luis Gil (No. 5), OF Estevan Florial (No. 7). Gil is going to Double-A even though he’s only made three career starts in High-A. He spent last year at the alternate site, however, so I guess he impressed enough to move up to Double-A. Gil will start the season opener later today.

I am pleasantly surprised to see Florial at Double-A. I thought his spot at the alternate site meant the Yankees were going to rush him up to Triple-A, but nope. Florial hit .237/.297/.383 (101 wRC+) with a 32.6% strikeout rate with High-A Tampa in 2019. Jumping him over Double-A would’ve been at best aggressive and at worst crazy.

(Folks, please stop emailing me and asking about Florial replacing Aaron Hicks. I refer you to Florial’s High-A line in 2019 and his lack of real games played since as evidence of his MLB non-readiness.)

Other notable prospects: IF Oswaldo Cabrera, IF Diego Castillo, 1B Dermis Garcia, IF Isiah Gilliam, LHP Matt Krook, RHP Glenn Otto, IF Hoy Jun Park, C Donny Sands. Cabrera, Castillo, Krook, Otto, and Park all would’ve made my hypothetical top 50 Yankees prospects list. They’re on the outside of the top 30, however. Park was at the alternate site and I’m a bit surprised he’s back in Double-A after hitting .272/.363/.370 (120 wRC+) at the level in 2019, though he’ll probably be the first infielder bumped up when a need arises.

Beltre and Milone were notable prospects in other organizations once upon a time. You can talk yourself into them being potential late bloomers or sleepers. The Rays took Gadea in the 2016 Rule 5 Draft but he got hurt that spring, and never did play in the big leagues. Anderson was the 1,207th pick in the 1,214-pick 2018 draft. He threw 46.2 innings with Rookie Pulaski in 2019 and is now jumping all the way up to Double-A. Anderson is 25 already, so this is a “he can give innings” assignment rather than a “sleeper prospect has made huge strides” assignment.

Coaching staff: If you’re interested in such things, here is the 2021 Patriots coaching staff:

I’m fairly certain Mosquera is the longest tenured coach in the organization. He’s entering his 16th season with the Yankees and he’s coached or managed at pretty much every level, and he’s worked with all the homegrown big leaguers at one point or another (Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, etc.). Moskos, the No. 4 pick in the 2007 draft, joined the Yankees last year and was going to be Low-A Charleston’s pitching coach before the minor league season was canceled. Migliaccio is entering his third year with the Yankees and was among the analytically-inclined hires when they overhauled their minor league coaching personnel in 2019.

High-A Hudson Valley Renegades

Top 30 prospects: RHP Luis Medina (No. 4), IF Oswald Peraza (No. 10), IF Ezequiel Duran (No. 17), C Josh Breaux (No. 24), C Anthony Seigler (No. 26), RHP Nelson Alvarez (not top 30). I didn’t expect the Yankees to move Seigler to High-A after 30 unimpressive games with Low-A Charleston in 2019, but here he is. Medina is entering his second minor league option year, so I have to think the Yankees are hoping he can split the year between High-A and Double-A.

Duran has never played in a full season league (he spent 2019 with Short Season Staten Island and led the league in homers) and he spent last year at home rather than at the alternate site, yet the Yankees are jumping him over Low-A entirely. Surprising. Not bad, necessary, just a bit surprising. Breaux reportedly made strides with his defense while training at home last year and we’ll see whether it holds this year. (My hunch is those reports are the Yankees trying to pump up his trade value).

Other notable prospects: OF Brandon Lockridge, RHP Barrett Loseke, OF Pablo Olivares, RHP Tanner Myatt, RHP Mitch Spence, LHP Ken Waldichuk, RHP Hayden Wesneski, RHP Justin Wilson. I wrote about Spence, Waldichuk, and Wesneski as sleeper prospects a few weeks ago. Myatt was a top 30 prospect in 2019 and Wilson (23rd round 2018) has hit 100 mph at times the last few years. Loseke is arguably the top pure reliever prospect in the system as a mid-90s fastball/slider guy. Some real interesting arms ticketed for Hudson Valley this season.

Lockridge is a borderline top 30 prospect (MLB.com ranks him No. 20 in the system) and he hit .251/.319/.410 (112 wRC+) with Low-A Charleston in 2019. He’s a speed and defense type. He also turned 24 in March and will be Rule 5 Draft eligible this offseason. I think Lockridge is trade bait. The Yankees have a full big league outfield and tying up another 40-man spot on a player who won’t be MLB ready for another year or two (and who projects to maybe be a fourth outfielder or platoon bat) would be unwise.

Coaching staff: If you’re interested in such things, here is the 2021 Renegades coaching staff:

Once upon a time Judge told Chad Jennings that Fiorito “just kind of controlled the clubhouse” when he was a minor league player, and he’s since turned those leadership skills into a minor league coaching gig. Fiorito rejoined the Yankees as a coach in 2018 and he managed one of the two Rookie Gulf Coast League affiliates in 2019. He was going to manage Short Season Staten Island prior to the pandemic last year. Casadiego, another former Yankees minor leaguer, has been coaching in the system since 2014, and he was due to spend a fourth straight season with Rookie Pulaski last year. Hirst is another one of the new analytically-minded hitting coaches the Yankees hired a few years ago. This is his first full season league assignment.

Low-A Tampa Tarpons

Top 30 prospects: C Austin Wells (No. 6), SS Anthony Volpe (No. 11), RHP Matt Sauer (No. 22), 2B/OF Trevor Hauver (No. 25), OF Jake Sanford (not top 30). Wells and Volpe are the headliners as the Yankees’ two most recent first round picks (Wells in 2020 and Volpe in 2019). I thought Volpe would start in Extended Spring Training, though by all accounts he’s a mature kid and a smart player. Full season ball isn’t crazy.

The Yankees gave Sauer a $2.5M bonus as their second round pick in 2017 and he completed his Tommy John surgery rehab last year. He has not pitched in an official game since April 2019, and he will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season, so this is a pretty important year for him. Also, it’s notable Hauver is listed as an infielder. He was an outfielder in college and the Yankees are following through on their plan to move him to second base. Whatever they saw in minor league Spring Training was positive (or not bad enough to give up on the plan entirely).

Other notable prospects: OF Elijah Dunham, RHP Randy Vasquez. Dunham was the top undrafted free agent the Yankees signed during the weirdness of last summer. He’s a bit old for a kid making his pro debut (23 later this month) but has a decent skill set. Vasquez is a spin rate guy with an average-ish fastball. The Yankees have a thing for helping pitchers add velocity. If they can get him into the 92-95 mph range, Vasquez could be something.

Coaching staff: If you’re interested in such things, here is the 2021 Tarpons coaching staff:

Adams is already entering his fifth year as a coach/manager -- remember when we all wanted him called up to replace Jayson Nix? -- and he’s climbed the ladder from the Rookie Gulf Coast League to Short Season Staten Island to now Low-A. DeGagne and Martir were new hires prior to the pandemic and this will be their first year in traditional coaching roles in the organization. Hernandez is the team’s minor league catching guru and he goes wherever the Yankees have their top catching prospects. He’s going to Tampa to work with Wells.

Extended Spring Training

Top 30 prospects: OF Jasson Dominguez (No. 1), OF Kevin Alcantara (No. 8), SS Alex Vargas (No. 9), C Antonio Gomez (No. 15), OF Ryder Green (No. 18), OF Everson Pereira (No. 19), RHP Beck Way (No. 20), OF Raimfer Salinas (No. 29), OF Anthony Garcia (No. 30), 3B Enger Castellano (not top 30), RHP Yoljeldriz Diaz (not top 30), RHP Denny Larrondo (not top 30).

It should surprise no one that Dominguez, who turned only 18 in February, is starting the season in ExST. Asking him to make his pro debut in Low-A, where he’d be one of the youngest players in the league, after losing a season to the pandemic would be a recipe for disaster. Dominguez could reach Low-A at some point later this year. To start though, he’ll cut his teeth in ExST.

“We’re in a different world. We didn’t play last year. Jasson’s an 18-year-old that we’re all excited about. He’s got a lot of talent and a lot of skill. He hasn’t played in a ton of games, so we just kind of wanted to put him in the best place to succeed,” Reese told Randy Miller. “Normally Extended Spring Training is a little bit of a cluster. There’s a ton of people and a lot of craziness. This year we’re going have a lot less people, and so that will provide an environment for more individual assisting and we’ll be able to iron out anything that he needs to work through. And then once he gets rolling, I’m sure he’s going to be a steamroller through the minor leagues.”

Alcantara, Castellano, Gomez, and Vargas are all supremely talented teenagers and could rank among the game’s top 100 prospects next year, particularly Gomez and Vargas. I thought Green and Pereira would begin the season in Low-A. Holding two 20-year-olds back in ExST isn’t unreasonable though. I’m excited to follow Way. Last year's fourth round pick has an interesting skill set (his fastball command is excellent) and could really be something should the Yankees help him develop his secondary pitches.

The Rookie Gulf Coast League season typically begins in late June (the 2021 schedule has not yet been finalized), and the minor league contraction plan eliminated Short Season Staten Island and Rookie Pulaski, so the Yankees haves just the one short season affiliate now. I’ve heard the Yankees are trying to field a second GCL team or even put together a co-op GCL team (with prospects from several different organizations, similar to an Arizona Fall League team), but nothing is official yet. Might be a while until we hear any GCL news.

Injured: RHP Alex Vizcaino (No. 13), RHP Yoendrys Gomez (No. 14), SS Josh Smith (No. 27). Reese confirmed all three players are injured, according to Mike Ashmore. Reese described the Gomez and Vizcaino injuries as “minor” without elaborating, and Smith is on the mend after banging his hand against the tarp chasing a popup. He should return soon and I expect him to head to High-A Hudson Valley following a quick tune-up with Low-A Tampa.

Vizcaino did not pitch at all in Spring Training. Gomez did, making one appearance on May 4th. It’s not unusual for a young pitching prospect to make one appearance early in Spring Training before the big leaguers take most of the innings, though I guess this “minor” injury could've cut into Gomez’s playing time. I think Gomez is going to Low-A Tampa once healthy. Vizcaino’s ultimate destination figures to be Double-A Somerset.

Presumably injured: LHP T.J. Sikkema (No. 21), RHP Daniel Bies. There’s always a missing top 30 prospect and this year it’s Sikkema. I assume he’s hurt (or developed the yips), otherwise there’s no obvious reason for him to be held back in ExST. Sikkema was a high draft pick and he spent three years in college baseball’s toughest conference. A guy like that would’ve gone right to High-A in his first full pro season in 2019. Hmmm. As for Bies, I wrote about him as a sleeper a few weeks back. He’s not listed on a roster after splitting 2019 between the two Single-A levels, so he’s probably hurt.

4. 2021 draft prospect: Louisiana HS 2B Peyton Stovall. The 2021 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d) reports MLB has informed teams the draft will be 20 rounds, the minimum number allowed under last year’s March agreement. The Yankees hold the No. 20 pick. Here is our 2021 draft prospect coverage archive.

Stovall, 18 on draft day, raised his stock with a strong showing in summer showcase events last year despite playing through a hand issue. He is a man among boys in the high school ranks, socking 12 homers in 31 games this spring despite rarely getting anything to hit (35 walks and six strikeouts). Stovall is committed to Arkansas.

MLB.com ranks Stovall as the No. 27 prospect in the draft class and Baseball America (subs. req’d) has him a bit lower at No. 73. Here’s video (that sure is a pretty swing) and here’s a piece of MLB.com’s scouting report:

Stovall excels at barreling balls with his sweet left-handed stroke and makes hard contact to all fields. He consistently puts together quality at-bats and doesn't try to do too much, displaying natural ability to lift balls to his pull side as well as some opposite-field pop. He has the bat speed and strength to produce 20 or more homers per season, and he's such a gifted hitter that his biggest proponents believe he may develop plus power.

A high school shortstop, Stovall doesn't have the quickness or range to play there at the next level, whether that be collegiately at Arkansas or in pro ball. He's a fringy runner with a thick lower half who might slow a bit more as he continues to mature physically, and the hope is that he'll be able to handle second base. His speed and subpar arm limit his defensive options, with left field his fallback position.

Prospects like Stovall have become hot commodities the last few years. Teams are better at developing power than hitting ability, plus it’s difficult to project power because the ball seems to change every year. Because of that, teams are increasingly focused on players with good hit tools and who know the strike zone, then work on developing the power and figuring out a defensive home.

The Yankees have gone position player heavy in the early rounds the last few years (they’ve drafted only five pitchers in the top five rounds since 2018) and it is intentional. “(We put) a bit more of an emphasis (on hitters in the early rounds). I think you can come up with pitching in a lot of rounds,” scouting director Damon Oppenheimer told Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d), so that’s a trend worth noting.

Nick Solak (2016 second round) and Canaan Smith (2017 fourth round) fit the “we think he can hit but we’re not sure about his power or his defense” profile, so the Yankees have gone this route in the not-too-distant past. I think Stovall is likely to go closer to No. 27 (MLB.com’s rank) than No. 72 (Baseball America’s), so the first round might be the Yankees’ only chance at him.

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Steve Karsay. This week’s random Yankee came by request and is a local product from Queens who was traded for a Hall of Famer before he even made his MLB debut. Here’s the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Karsay was born and raised in College Point, and was named the Gatorade New York High School Player of the Year as a senior. The Blue Jays made him the 22nd overall pick in the 1990 draft -- Karsay was selected two picks after Mike Mussina and two picks before Rondell White -- and three times he appeared on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list:

• 1991: No. 38
• 1993: No. 55
• 1994: No. 12 (Derek Jeter was No. 16)

Karsay was among the best prospects in the game and dominant in the minors (2.73 ERA and 87 strikeouts in 85.2 High-A innings in 1992), but the Blue Jays won the World Series in 1992 and were looking to repeat in 1993. They needed an outfielder and the last place Athletics had a notable (and disgruntled) impending free agent outfielder: Rickey Henderson.

"I've suffered for four years," Henderson told the Associated Press before being traded to the Blue Jays for Karsay and outfielder Jose Herrera at the 1993 trade deadline. "They dogged me for four years. Everybody needs something. I need something, they need something. If they want to trade me, buy my no-trade. Then they can trade me wherever they want."

The Yankees and Blue Jays were tied atop the AL East at 60-45 on the morning of the trade deadline. After the trade, Toronto went 35-22 to win the division and eventually win their second consecutive World Series title (though Henderson was sneaky bad with the Blue Jays during the regular season and postseason). The Yankees went 28-29 down the stretch and missed the postseason for the 12th straight year.

Karsay, then 21, made his Major League debut with Oakland a few weeks after the trade. He handled himself well, throwing 49 innings with a 4.04 ERA in eight starts. Karsay opened the 1994 season in the A’s rotation and was great in four starts (eight runs in 28 innings), but his elbow was not right. He had season-ending surgery soon after his fourth start on April 25th.

The surgery was an arthroscopic procedure and Karsay’s second in three years. It didn’t take. After a few months of rehab, Karsay underwent Tommy John surgery. He missed all of 1995 and the first half of 1996. Karsay made 14 carefully monitored minor league rehab starts down the stretch in 1996 and had a 2.65 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 34 innings.

“It’s gradually getting better the more I throw and the more exercises I do,” Karsay told Jeff Fletcher that August. “I would like to be in the big leagues this year, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. They want to take it step by step. (The A’s) want me for 1997. 1996 is not a big priority. Spring of 1997 is when I want to be 100%.”

Karsay struggled in his return to the big leagues in 1997. He made 24 starts that year and had a 5.77 ERA in 132.2 innings. Opponents hit .304/.366/.507 against him. After waiting all that time to get Karsay back on the mound, the A’s cut bait following that 1997 season, and traded Karsay to Cleveland for journeyman righty Mike Fetters.

Neck and shoulder problems hampered Karsay in 1998, and he allowed 14 runs in 24.1 innings. It wasn’t until 1999, his age 27 season, that Karsay finally stayed healthy and had sustained success. Cleveland moved him to the bullpen full-time and he responded with a 2.97 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 78.2 innings. More dominance followed in 2000 and 2001.

Here’s where Karsay ranked among the 123 pitchers with at least 120 relief appearances from 1999-2001:

• Innings: 243.2 (17th)
• ERA: 3.00 (13th)
• FIP: 3.23 (10th)
• Strikeouts: 217 (18th)
• K/BB ratio: 2.71 (18th)

''We just kept pushing him further back in the game,” Cleveland then-GM Mark Shapiro told Tyler Kepner in Feb. 2002. “His stuff played up, and he kept getting better and better. Steve has one of those rising, exploding fastballs. It was that much more effective and that much harder coming out of the bullpen.''

Karsay was a top 20 reliever from 1999-2001, and he saved 20 games for Cleveland in 2000. He started very well in 2001 (1.25 ERA in 43.1 innings), but was an impending free agent, so even though they were in the race, Cleveland traded Karsay to the Braves for John Rocker at the deadline. Rocker was a headache in more ways than one, though Cleveland was willing to look the other way because he was good and under control multiple years.

''I would say it puts some finality to some things,” Chipper Jones told Rafael Hermoso following the Rocker trade. “This team is a laid-back team that does things professionally and goes out and stays even-keeled. I think every one of us for the last two or three years has held our breath every day. That's kind of unnerving. But again, like I was telling you, he was a good guy and did his job to the best of his ability.''

Karsay was good rather than truly great with the Braves (3.43 ERA and 49 strikeouts in 44.2 innings) and he finished 2001 with a 2.35 ERA and 83 strikeouts in 88 innings. He allowed one run in 5.1 innings during Atlanta’s run to the NLCS as well. While with the Braves, Karsay gave up Mike Piazza’s memorable post-Sept. 11th home run (video).

“After he hit it, for me looking back, it was the kind of emotion that rivals the loudest cheers I’ve ever heard on a baseball field,” Karsay, a native New Yorker, told Jim Mancari. “To have that moment uneased the crowd. During the game, it was tense. You can just feel what that home run meant for the healing of New York City. If there was any time to give up a home run -- though I obviously didn’t want to -- that was the time.”

After years of arm injuries, Karsay had settled in as a workhorse late-inning reliever, and the Yankees took notice. They’d just lost the 2001 World Series in heartbreaking fashion, but the dynasty window was still open, and they wanted to improve the bullpen in front of Mariano Rivera. Karsay was coming off a monster three-year run and an obvious fit.

During the 2001 Winter Meetings in Boston, the Yankees signed Karsay to a four-year deal worth $20M with a club option for a fifth year. He replaced Jeff Nelson, who returned to the Mariners on a three-year contract worth $10.65M, as the top setup righty. Karsay and stalwart lefty Mike Stanton were set to be the primary late-inning duo behind Rivera.

"Steve gives us depth and flexibility in the back end of our bullpen,” Brian Cashman told UPI following the Karsay signing. “He has a power arm and has developed into one of the most productive relievers in baseball."

Karsay’s first season in pinstripes went as planned. He threw 88.1 innings with a 3.26 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 2002 (he picked up 12 saves when Rivera was sidelined by shoulder trouble in the second half) and appeared in all four games in the ALDS loss to the Angels. Joe Torre leaned on his trusted relievers a lot -- A LOT -- and Karsay seemed to pitch twice a series.

That workload took its toll in 2003. Karsay had back surgery during the 2002-03 offseason, then came down with an achy shoulder in Spring Training. He started the season on what was then called the disabled list, and after an April bullpen session went poorly, Karsay saw Dr. James Andrews and rotator cuff surgery was recommended. He went under the knife soon thereafter.

"It's premature, but if everything goes right, we could have him back towards the end of the season," Cashman told reporters at the time. That didn’t happen. Karsay didn’t get back on a mound until May 2004 and he spent most of that season rehabbing in the minors. He rejoined the Yankees after rosters expanded in September and allowed three runs in 6.2 innings.

Karsay was healthy enough to be on the Opening Day roster in 2005, though he didn’t last long with the Yankees. He allowed five runs in six innings before being designated for assignment on May 3rd. The Yankees were 11-15 and looking to shake things up. Robinson Cano was called up as part of that shake up, and Karsay was designated for assignment to clear a roster spot.

"This wasn't a surprise. Unfortunately, I was the odd man out," Karsay told ESPN. The Yankees released him a few days later and ate the remainder of his $6M salary. In return for their $20M investment, the Yankees received one great season in 2002, then just another 12.2 forgettable innings in the final three years of the deal. Relievers, man.

Karsay signed with the Rangers a few days after being released and allowed 14 runs in 15.2 innings the rest of the season. Cleveland signed him to a minor league contract in Dec. 2005 and he started 2006 in the minors, then was traded back to the A’s in a cash deal in May. Oakland brought Karsay back to the big leagues right away.

On June 17th, 2006, Karsay threw two scoreless innings and got the win in a 17-inning game against the Dodgers. He announced his retirement the next day. Similar to Jay Bruce a few weeks ago, Karsay told the team he intended to retire, but hung around for one last weekend.

"Sometimes you dig down deep and see what the future holds and what you want to do. This is just a piece of my life,” Karsay told the Associated Press. "Every player knows when it's time. I don't want to go out there and embarrass myself and be the guy who's just trying to hold on."

Karsay allowed six runs in 9.2 innings with the A’s in 2006 and retired with a 4.01 ERA in 603.1 innings, including a 3.36 ERA in 369.1 innings after becoming a full-time reliever in 1999. He banked roughly $26M in his career, most from the Yankees, and got into minor league coaching soon after his playing career. Karsay has been the Brewers bullpen coach since Nov. 2018.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Luis Severino has taken another step forward with his Tommy John surgery rehab. He threw with hitters standing in the box (but not swinging) last week, and will graduate to live batting practice next week. “He’ll have a couple of more bullpen sessions like the one the other day and then I believe live hitters,” Aaron Boone told Kristie Ackert over the weekend. Based on his progress and the timing, it seems like Severino could get into minor league rehab games around June 1st. That suggests he could rejoin the Yankees around the All-Star break (I’d bet on after the break, not before). Good news all around … Dodgers righty Dustin May is having Tommy John surgery next week, the team announced, and I bring this up only because Los Angeles is suddenly a major threat to my “trade for Max Scherzer at the deadline” plan. The Dodgers will now be without May, David Price (hamstring), and Tony Gonsolin (shoulder) for the foreseeable future. Their pitching depth dried up quick. I don’t think they blew through the various luxury tax thresholds to sign Trevor Bauer only to half-ass it at the deadline. May’s injury is bad news for the Dodgers and potentially bad news for the Yankees (and bad news for baseball fans in general because that guy is crazy fun) … And finally, SABR CEO Scott Bush recently noted Aroldis Chapman struck out 22 batters in his first nine innings this season. That is believed to be the most strikeouts in a nine-inning span for any pitcher in baseball history. That is pretty nuts. Chapman has 24 strikeouts in 10 innings this year and the other day he recorded a seven-pitch save with two strikeouts. He has a -0.79 FIP (yes, FIPs can go into the negatives). Chapman has been outrageously good in the early going this year.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)