April 16th, 2021: Ground Balls, Rotation, Frazier, Roster, Mailbag

Self-promotion: CBS talked me into a bi-weekly Yankees post on the team’s latest trends, news, whatever. Turns out the Yankees are good for business. Here is this week’s edition. It will be different content than the Patreon (y’all are paying for this and I’m not going to give it away elsewhere), though there will probably be some topic overlap from time to time, only because there are only so many things you can write about a single team. Anyway, check that out. The post will go live around lunchtime every other Tuesday and I’ll make sure to link to it each week. The Yankees are on pace to go 68-94 with 150 games remaining. Here are today’s thoughts.

1. Early season observations. The 5-7 start wouldn’t bother me much if the Yankees didn’t look as stale and disjointed as they did pretty much all last year. It’s similar to 2015, when the Yankees fell flat in the second half and it carried over into 2016, and didn’t go away until Gary Sanchez came up. This is now 72 games of the whole being less than the sum of the parts.

Can you really call it a small sample size when the things that happened last year are still happening this year? Yeah, I guess you can. I’m not worried. Just annoyed. Here are a few early season observations, in no particular order.

Ground balls, not strikeouts, are holding back the offense

There’s a common misconception that the Yankees strike out too much. Going into yesterday’s games, they had the ninth lowest strikeout rate in baseball at 22.6%. With men on base, it’s tenth lowest at 21.3%. With runners in scoring position, it’s sixth lowest at 21.0%. In high leverage situations, it’s ninth lowest at 20.3%. Strikeouts aren’t really a problem. (The Yankees had the eighth lowest strikeout rate at 21.7% last year.)

There are two reasons it seems the Yankees strike out too much. One, they do have several individual hitters who strike out a lot (Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez*, Giancarlo Stanton, etc.). And two, every team strikes out a lot these days. The sport is dominated by strikeouts. The average strikeout rate is 24.6% this year. As recently as 2015, no team had a strikeout rate that high.

* Earlier this week Mike Petriello wrote about Sanchez’s strikeout rate, which has improved more than any other player’s since last season, so check that out. It boils down to better swing decisions. Gary’s not making more contact when he swings, he’s just swinging at better pitches.

There have been untimely strikeouts in the first 12 games, sure, but those will happen during the course of a season. The bigger issue is the lack of power. The Yankees have hit 13 home runs in 12 games (they hit 24 homers in their first 12 games last year) and the homers they have hit haven’t put a big dent in the scoreboard. The 13 home runs are broken down into seven solo homers, four two-run homers, one three-run homer, and one grand slam.

The Yankees aren’t hitting homers -- their team .140 ISO is tenth lowest in baseball and WTF -- because they’re hitting way too many ground balls. The next ground ball I see go over the fence will be the first. The ground ball rate leaderboard going into yesterday’s games (non-pitchers only):

1. White Sox: 51.5%
2. Phillies: 49.6%
3. Yankees: 48.0%
4. Rangers: 47.9%
5. Brewers: 47.9%
   (MLB average: 42.8%)

The Yankees had a 43.8% ground ball rate in the 60-game season last year. It was 41.7% the year before that and 41.6% the year before that. The Yankees have been among the top power hitting teams in the league because they prioritize hitters who hit the ball hard and in the air. The short porch helps, no doubt, but the Yankees have players who can hit homers anywhere.

This year though, those players are beating the ball into the ground. Judge has a 54.8% ground ball rate (39.0% career). DJ LeMahieu has a 58.3% ground ball rate (51.7% from 2019-20). Gio Urshela has a 50.0% ground ball rate (41.1% from 2019-20). Stanton is the biggest culprit. The poster boy for the “hit the ball hard in the air” profile has a 65.5% ground ball rate. I mean:

“It’s getting in that position to get off his best swing and when he does, getting it airborne or on a line,” Aaron Boone told Dan Martin earlier this week. “With Giancarlo, that’s always simmering, always right there. It’s probably a little fine-tuning with timing and when he does get a pitch to do damage. Even though even when he puts it on the ground, it’s so hard, sometimes it finds a hole.”

Stanton’s last 10 plate appearances have gone walk, ground ball, strikeout, ground ball, ground ball, ground ball, ground ball, ground ball, fly ball, ground ball. Two of those ground balls snuck through the infield for singles, including one with a 120 mph exit velocity (hardest hit ball in MLB this year), so hard-hit ability is not a problem. Not with Stanton or anyone else. The Yankees are still hitting the ball hard (89.1 mph average exit velocity as a team). They’re just not hitting the ball in the air enough.

The Yankees have hit into nine double plays in the last four games. 15 teams had not hit into that many double plays the entire season going into yesterday’s action. The Yankees have an offense built around on-base percentage and power, and they’re getting on base, but they’re hitting too many grounders. That means fewer multi-run homers (and fewer homers in general) and more double plays. It is a miserable combination. I don’t expect it to last given the personnel, but that doesn’t make it any more pleasant to sit through. Strikeouts aren’t the problem. Ground balls are.

“When you’re not banging, you’ve got to do the little things really well and that’s catch the ball, run the bases,” Boone said Wednesday, blissfully unaware the Yankees do not do those things well. “Eventually we are going to start banging. I have a ton of confidence in our guys and I can’t wait to see them turn the corner.”

The non-Cole starters are a mess

Folks, I’m starting to think not re-signing Masahiro Tanaka was a mistake. Crazy, I know. Corey Kluber is going backwards based on his last two starts, not improving following a so-so Spring Training. Kluber is a more decorated J.A. Happ at this point. If he’s anything less than perfect with his location, you might as well get him an L-screen.

“I’m as frustrated as everybody with the results on the scoreboard, so to speak, but I can tell things are going in the right direction,” Kluber told Martin after Wednesday’s game. “... (My) stuff is getting better, location is getting better, and the amount of misses over the course of a game is getting less and less. The mistakes I am making, I am paying for. I don’t expect to get away with them.”

If you want to take solace in something, you can take solace in the fact Kluber has been a slow starter, historically. The numbers during his 2014-18 peak:

• March/April: 3.70 ERA (3.12 FIP) and 4.4 K/BB
• All other months: 2.67 ERA (2.78 FIP) and 5.8 K/BB

How relevant is that at age 35 and coming off two years lost to injury, including a pretty serious shoulder injury last year? Not very, I don’t think. You have to give Kluber time to work things out, it’s still only three starts, but I haven’t seen many (any?) reasons to be encouraged. Maybe he really will just flip the switch and become an effective pitcher once April ends.

The rotation problems extend beyond Kluber though. Domingo German hasn’t pitched well and Jameson Taillon is making what feel like rehab starts in the big leagues. It would be much easier to tolerate Taillon's (understandably) carefully handled starts if the other non-Gerrit Cole starters were holding up their end of the bargain. The longest outings by Yankees pitchers this year:

1. Gerrit Cole: 7 innings on April 6th
2. Gerrit Cole: 6 innings on April 12th
3. Jordan Montgomery: 6 innings on April 5th
4. Mike King: 6 innings on April 4th
5. Gerrit Cole: 5.1 innings on April 1st
6. Jordan Montgomery: 5 innings on April 11th

No other Yankee has completed five innings in a game this season. When a relief appearance (a great relief appearance, but a relief appearance nonetheless) is tied for your second longest outing of the season, even in a tiny 12-game sample, it’s a problem. This is quickly becoming untenable. The bullpen is going to be fried by Memorial Day.

“We’re doing okay,” Boone told Martin about the bullpen’s workload, noting all the April off-days. “The entire bullpen has played a role and we’ve relied on guys equally to share the load, but as you go later into the month and May and the summer, you’ve got to lean on your starting pitchers to get you deeper into games.”

I feel good about Taillon. I do. The stuff is good and his command is good. He just has to get built up. Taillon made too many two-strike mistakes in the second inning Tuesday, and he ran out of gas in the fifth, otherwise I think he’s looked good. I’m less optimistic about Kluber, who's next 1-2-3 inning will be his first as a Yankee. German? Who knows with him.

The plan was to ease Taillon into action with pitch limits and extra rest given the two Tommy John surgeries. With Kluber and German, the plan was more to give them extra rest whenever possible, not keep them on strict pitch counts. The Yankees were still hoping to get 5-6 innings. Instead, they’ve combined to face one hitter in the fifth inning in four starts (this one). One short start (Taillon) each time through the rotation is doable. But three? No.

“(The bullpen has) had to pick up some innings for starters not named Gerrit a few times,” Taillon told Bryan Hoch earlier this week. “As starters, if our bullpen is going to pitch really well not just now but throughout the entire year, we need to optimize the way they’re being used instead of forcing them to run out there early in games.”

Bottom line, Cole has a 1.47 ERA (1.18 FIP) in three starts and 18.1 innings. The other four starters have a 6.14 ERA (6.60 FIP) in nine starts and 36.2 innings, and only one of those nine starts was anywhere close to “quality” (Montgomery vs. Orioles). The Yankees went for upside over reliability this offseason. So far, they’re getting neither.

“The good thing about this group is that we’re all pretty self-aware,” Taillon told Hoch. “We know what we need to get better at. I think the adjustments will be made, but right now we’re not getting deep enough into games. We’re not getting it done. We need to start picking it up, and I think we will.”

Frazier is not the starting left fielder

Boone can say whatever he wants. Actions speak louder than words and Clint Frazier is absolutely not the starting left fielder. He’s started two games since Saturday. Clint went 5-for-12 (.417) with three walks and two strikeouts in his first four games, had a bad three-game stretch (0-for-13 with six strikeouts), and is now stuck on the bench. I hate it.

“(Frazier) rakes and he’s gonna rake, but we have a really good player in (Brett Gardner) too,” Boone told Martin earlier this week. “... Bottom line, (Gardner) is gonna play a lot, whether he spots in center, starts in left. I like the way he’s playing. They’ll both end up playing a lot. (Frazier) is gonna be a really good player for us this year.”

Frazier was in Wednesday’s original lineup against righty Ross Stripling, but was replaced by Gardner after Stripling was scratched and replaced by righty T.J. Zeuch. Boone told Martin he “wanted another lefty in there” because Stripling and Zeuch have “really different skill sets,” which is true. Zeuch has a sizable split while Stripling has a career reverse split.

Still, the starting left fielder does not get pulled from the lineup because of a pitching change, especially when we’re talking about T.J. freakin’ Zeuch. The Blue Jays didn’t scratch Stripling and pull 1985 Dave Stieb out of a time machine to make the spot start. Whenever there is a lineup shuffle or a need for a different look, it’s Clint who draws the short straw.

Since the 5-for-12 start, Frazier is 1-for-18 (.056), and his slump is rooted in passivity. Clint has consistently run low swing rates (I wrote about this last year) and when he’s in a funk like this, it’s because he lets too many hittable pitches pass. He’s not striking out too much or chasing out of the zone. Quite the opposite. He’s not swinging enough. This’ll turn around in time.

More importantly, I have no idea how Frazier is supposed to get comfortable when three bad games land him on the bench after the manager spent Spring Training saying he would be the starting left fielder. After that, and after all the up and down the last few years, how is Frazier not supposed to go to the plate thinking he needs to get a hit every time up to avoid sitting tomorrow? That's a bad place to be, mentally.

I don’t know what the Yankees have against Frazier, but this is not how a team treats a player they believe is part of the future. The Yankees absolutely play favorites (Greg Bird, Phil Hughes, etc.). They’ll give guys they really believe in preferential treatment and live with the ups and downs. Clint continues to receive anything but that.

The Cole-Higashioka pairing

In other “Boone says one thing and does another” news, Kyle Higashioka is once again Cole’s personal catcher. Sanchez got one (1) game behind the plate with the ace, and it’s not like Cole pitched poorly either. And yet, Higashioka was behind the plate for Cole’s last two starts, and I would bet the farm on him being behind the plate again when Cole starts Sunday.

“He’s going to catch him a lot,” Boone told Hoch about the Higashioka-Cole pairing. “I like it because it usually lines up with wanting to give Gary a day. There’s going to be days where Gary catches him, but as the schedule unfolds, a lot of times it’s going to work out that it makes sense to get Higgy in there.”

I have big time personal catcher fatigue. The backup catcher has to play once in a while, and if they’re going to pair Higashioka’s one start each turn through the rotation with the same pitcher, fine. It would be foolish to avoid Cole and Sanchez entirely because they need to have some rapport in case Higashioka gets hurt or something, but the personal catcher thing is fine.

Mostly, I’m just annoyed Boone said one thing in Spring Training (“I don’t have that plan of pairing Cole and Higashioka”) and is doing another two weeks into the season. Turning Frazier into a platoon player (at best) is more egregious than Higashioka being Cole’s personal catcher, but the manager billed as a master communicator sure seems to have a knack for doing the opposite of what he says.

Roster construction

The roster construction is so bad right now. The Yankees don’t have an actual first baseman nor a true backup infielder, so in any given game they’re playing at least one and more often two infielders out of position. It shows in the defense too. Every game there are a few off-line throws or booted grounders or scoops not made. The rotation is not good enough to deal with the extra outs.

Jay Bruce seems like a swell guy but holy crap, this dude can not be on the roster another day. There are no redeeming qualities here. He’s not hitting (4-for-34) and there are no signs the bat will come around. There are no hard-hit outs (84 mph average exit velocity!) or hittable pitches being fouled away that show his timing is getting closer. Bruce looks done. Like done done.

“In the first three or four games he had a lot of good at-bats,” Boone told Martin earlier this week, downplaying Bruce’s struggles. “The last couple games he’s struggled a bit. That’s gonna happen throughout the season. He’s been a little bit off.”

The first base defense is at best below-average and closer to unplayable. I don’t blame Bruce for that given his inexperience, but if you’re not going to hit, you have to catch the ball, and he’s not doing that. Miguel Andujar was banished to Scranton for much less last year. It’s too bad Bruce isn’t working out, but it’s not working out. Not even close. He has to go.

I don’t understand the Rougned Odor thing either. I thought maybe I was crazy for thinking the Yankees are better off with Tyler Wade than Odor. Then I watched Odor make five outs in four at-bats Tuesday night because he swung at four pitches in the other batter’s box, all while the Yankees played their range-challenged third baseman at short, and I felt validated. This is me during the Wade-Odor discourse:

If not for his contract, Odor would’ve been non-tendered two years ago and bouncing around Triple-A. He would not be on the roster if not for the $0 luxury tax hit. This is a clear example of payroll taking priority over the best possible roster and it is insulting. Odor and Bruce have no business being on a supposed World Series contender’s roster, even as short-term stopgaps.

Drop Bruce and Odor, and recall Mike Ford and Wade*. Ford may not hit, but he’s an actual first baseman and will be a defensive upgrade even though he’s nothing special there. I’m not asking for a miracle. I’m asking for competence. Wade can give the Yankees the same empty at-bats as Odor, only with good defense and the ability to play shortstop. These are easy calls to me and they create a proper roster. An actual first baseman at first base and an actual backup shortstop. The little things, you know?

Unfortunately, the 10-day rule exists, and neither Ford nor Wade can be called up just yet. Ford spent a day on the roster last weekend when Urshela was dealing with vaccine side effects. Wade was sent down for Odor the same day. They can’t be recalled until Tuesday. Once eligible, I say bring them back and improve the defense without subtracting any offense.

* To be clear, I have zero expectation of the Yankees doing this. Odor’s $0 luxury tax hit is too valuable to the bottom line and they wouldn’t admit to a mistake this soon anyway. Bruce will stay around because he has name value and the Yankees will say they want him for depth, but if this is what you’re getting, he’s not depth. He’s a detriment.

2. 2021 draft prospect: Kansas State LHP Jordan Wicks. The 2021 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d) reports MLB has informed teams the draft will be 20 rounds, the minimum number allowed under last year’s March agreement. The Yankees hold the No. 20 pick. Here is our 2021 draft prospect coverage archive.

Wicks, 21, stepped into Kansas State’s rotation as a freshman and he’s having a so-so spring, with a 3.72 ERA and a 66/13 K/BB in eight starts and 48.1 innings. He was having a breakout year prior to the pandemic (26 IP, 13 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 26 K) and he kept it up in summer ball (20 IP, 12 H, 2 R, 5 BB, 29 K), so you needn’t look back too far for the last time he was dominant.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) and MLB.com both rank Wicks as the No. 16 prospect in the draft class. Here’s some video and here’s a snippet of MLB.com’s scouting report:

Wicks has the best changeup in the Draft, a low-80s weapon with tumble and depth that he sells with deceptive arm speed, earning plus-plus grades from some evaluators. He sets it up with a fastball that has added about 5 mph since high school, now sitting at 90-93 mph and hitting 95 with high spin rates that give it riding action. His breaking pitches aren't as advanced, with a low-80s slider that he can morph into a harder cutter more effective than an upper-70s curveball … Wicks works with little effort, easily repeating his delivery and pounding the strike zone while working both sides of the plate. In addition to his stuff and command, he earns praise for his competitiveness and inventiveness on the mound.

Baseball America’s scouting report says Wicks is “cut from the same competitive cloth” as TJ Sikkema, who the Yankees selected with the No. 38 pick in the 2019 draft (Sikkema is my No. 21 prospect). Wicks getting a Sikkema comp for his competitiveness does not automatically mean the Yankees will target him, but I thought it was interesting nonetheless.

Travis Sawchik (subs. req’d) recently argued teams should prioritize command over stuff with young pitchers. This is the build-a-pitcher era, when teams help guys add velocity and improve their secondary pitches with analytics and high-tech equipment and all that. Cleveland has done this with Shane Bieber, Corey Kluber, Zach Plesac, and others over the years.

Wicks seems like the quintessential prospect for the build-a-pitcher era. The scouting reports tout his command and pitchability, his changeup is a knockout pitch, and his fastball stands out more for its spin than its velocity. Help Wicks refine his slider and/or curveball, and turn that 90-93 mph fastball into a 94-96 mph fastball, and you could really have something.

High floor college pitchers are much more likely to be drafted earlier than expected than later than expected, and since Wicks is already viewed as a mid-first round prospect, he’ll probably be off the board before the No. 20 comes around. If that happens, so be it. I am intrigued by the command and potential for growth though. Wicks has a nice skill set.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. MLB announced it will test rule changes in the independent Atlantic League this year. Specifically, they’re moving the mound back 12 inches and implementing a “double hook” rule, in which teams lose the DH once the starting pitcher is out of the game. Moving the mound back is worth exploring because I don’t think the league strikeout rate is coming down without intervention. As for the “double hook” rule, I’m not sure what problem it solves. No one wants to see Jack Mayfield taking an at-bat that should go to Shohei Ohtani in the late innings. Nothing wrong with testing it, but I hope the “double hook” rule goes nowhere … Eno Sarris (subs. req’d) looked at the early data on the new supposedly deadened baseball. Long story short, the April home run rate has held steady while strikeouts are up, and there are indications strikeouts are up because the seams on the new baseball have increased spin rates (pitchers are getting a better grip) and pitch movement. MLB set out to lower the home run rate and instead exacerbated the three-true outcome problem that plagues the sport. Too funny … And finally, shout out to the YES Network for coming up with the most inane stat imaginable (screen grab via Pinstripe Alley):

Catcher offensive splits based on the pitcher! Incredible. I wonder how Higashioka hits with DJ LeMahieu at first base rather than Luke Voit? What about when he has cereal for breakfast because he was too tired to make an omelette that morning? Stats were a mistake.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

George asks: In the early panic mode: I'm convinced this team cannot win it all with Torres at SS. 1. Just for giggles, what would a Torres and Garcia trade bring, thinking a pure contact .300 bat?, and 2. More realistically, any glove only SS's that could be acquired to bridge the gap to next year's free agents?

Using the Baseball Trade Values site, a Gleyber Torres and Deivi Garcia package could net you Cody Bellinger. Or Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn. George is thinking of a “pure contact .300 bat,” so what about Jeff McNeil? Or Trea Turner? Surplus value says it would be an overpay for the Yankees, and yet I think both teams would say no those trades.

The most obvious shortstop trade target is Trevor Story. The Rockies are dumb but I don’t think they’re dumb enough to keep him all year, and take just a dinky draft pick when he leaves as a free agent. Given the luxury tax plan, the Yankees would need Colorado to eat just about his entire $18.5M salary to make a trade work. I can’t see it happening.

Javy Baez is the other top shortstop trade candidate, especially if the Cubs continue to spin their wheels. He’s a brilliant defender who will occasionally do something special at the plate. Jose Iglesias, Miguel Rojas, Nick Ahmed, and Brandon Crawford also stand out as possible trade candidates. Crawford feels extremely Yankees-ish, no?

Mark asks: Based on your last post about how opening day showed again the Yanks’ vulnerability to high-velocity RH relievers, who are some potential trade deadline targets for LH hitters? I can only think of Kyle Schwarber if the Nats fall apart, or Joc Pederson if the Cubs are out. Both would probably fit under the “cap” by the deadline.

Schwarber and Pederson are the two most obvious candidates, though a lefty hitting outfielder isn’t the biggest need with Brett Gardner around. A lefty hitting infielder to give DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, and Gio Urshela (and eventually Luke Voit) a break would be swell. Rougned Odor isn’t the answer and Tyler Wade isn’t doing that job either. A lefty hitting shortstop-capable infielder would be a wise target.

I just noted Brandon Crawford feels very Yankees-ish. He’s off to a slow start this year (6-for-38), but he hit righties well last year (116 wRC+), and he’s still a good defender at short with championship pedigree. Crawford is making $15M this season and he has a full no-trade clause, so those hurdles would need to be cleared. Also, the Giants will have to fall out of the race. They have the third best record in the National League in the super early going.

Pirates utility man Adam Frazier is another candidate. He can’t play short, but he can play second and third (and the outfield), and he’s a career 108 wRC+ hitter against righties. Not great but good, and the Yankees would also control him next year as an arbitration-eligible player. That said, Frazier is making $4.3M this year. That’s a lot for a bench guy and could make him a non-tender candidate after the season should he continue his downward trend.

What about Kyle Seager? He’s a third base only guy, but the Yankees are comfortable putting Urshela at short, so he could fit. Seager’s a low-ish strikeout hitter who’s really punished righties the last few years, is still good defensively, and is said to be a Grade A clubhouse guy. The biggest issue here is Seager’s $15M club option for 2022, which turns into a player option if he’s traded. Not sure any team will trade for him without Mariners eating some of that.

Two switch-hitters to note: Orioles shortstop Freddy Galvis and Diamondbacks third baseman Eduardo Escobar. Galvis is a good fielder but a comfortably below-average hitter, even against righties, though the Yankees have had interest in the past. Escobar is a power over on-base guy who’s done well against righties, historically. He can play third and fake second, and is making $7.5M in his contract year. Escobar is worth keeping an eye on. He’s a sneaky good fit.

Sam asks: I'm well aware that everyone's trade proposal sucks but what would you give up for Spencer Turnbull? Lot of walks but huge ground ball guy, FIP in the mid 3's last year, coming off the covid list this week, a few years of team control left, the Tigers are awful, etc.

Turnbull is 28 already? I would’ve guessed 25 or 26. Huh. Anyway, Turnbull joined Detroit’s rotation for good two years ago and had an unsightly 4.61 ERA despite solid underlying numbers (3.99 FIP, .328 xwOBA, etc.) in 148.1 innings. Last year he was down to a 3.97 ERA (3.49 FIP) in 56.2 innings, though you have to bet against him maintaining a 0.32 HR/9 long-term, especially outside the Central region.

In 221.1 MLB innings, the peripherals are average across the board (21.9% strikeouts, 9.5% walks, 48.5% grounders), which isn’t exciting but is a good starting point. Turnbull has a mid-90s heater and very good spin rates on the fastball and slider (here’s video). He’s a good candidate for the north-south elevated fastballs approach. To date, Turnbull has kept his four-seamer down in the zone:

The elevated fastballs approach is not as easy as “throw fastballs up in the zone,” because the pitcher has to be able to command his fastball. Elevate the fastball too much and it’s an easy take. Don’t elevate it enough, and it’s in the wheelhouse. If you think Turnbull can swing it, he’s a nice little trade target. Even if you don’t, he’s still worth a phone call.

Turnbull landed on the COVID-19 list in Spring Training and hasn’t pitched yet this year. He is in his final pre-arbitration year and will remain under team control through 2024, so trade for him at the deadline, and you’re getting Turnbull for three and a half years. Surprisingly few pitchers have been traded at a similar point in their career in recent years.

• Chris Archer (four years under contact): Traded for Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, and Shane Baz.
• Nathan Eovaldi (three years of control): Traded with Domingo German and Garrett Jones for Martin Prado and David Phelps.
• Caleb Smith (3.5 years of control): Traded with a top 10 prospect (Luis Frias) and a top 30 prospect (Humberto Mejia) for Starling Marte.
• Jose Quintana (3.5 years under contract): Traded for Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, and two fringe prospects.

No good comps for a Turnbull trade. Turnbull is far less established than Quintana was at the time of his trade, and I have a hard time thinking the Yankees will give up a player(s) off their MLB roster to get Turnbull like they did to get Eovaldi, and the Marlins did to get Marte. The Tigers will want an Archer package for Turnbull and that’s just not happening.

Tigers GM Al Avila drives notoriously hard bargains (he wanted Gleyber Torres for Matt Boyd a few years ago) and there’s no reason to think he won’t overplay his hand with Turnbull. I’d be cool with a quantity over quality 3-4 prospect package like the Jameson Taillon trade. Avila will probably ask for Deivi Garcia and Clint Frazier. I like Turnbull as an under the radar trade target. Whether he is actually obtainable is another matter.

Adam asks: I am tired of baseball announcers energetically proclaiming that a hitter is a triple away from the cycle after a player hits a single, a double, and a homer. Obviously, triples are the hardest part of a cycle to get and I imagine it is extremely rare (within the extremely rare event of hitting for the cycle) for a hitter to get a triple as the last part of the cycle, particularly when there is usually only one at bat left to accomplish this. I do not possess your baseball research abilities, so can you use your magic to determine how often a hitter has been a triple away from the cycle and how often a hitter actually got that triple to achieve the cycle? Seems like a tall order, but if anyone can do it, you can!

Gio Urshela was a triple short of a cycle last Sunday. He had four hits and the fourth hit was a single that hopped over Manny Margot’s head in right field, and Urshela wound up that third base (video). It was a textbook single and a two-base error though, so no triple to complete the cycle. Two singles, a double, and a triple instead. Melky Cabrera remains the last Yankee to hit for the cycle (video). He got the triple to complete it.

There have already been 16 instances of a hitter being a triple short of the cycle this year (Justin Turner did it just last night). It happened 107 times during the 60-game season a year ago. There were an average of 247 triple short of the cycle games per year from 2010-19, with a low of 204 in 2004 and a high of 296 in 2019. Here’s how many times the Yankees have done it the last few years:

• 2020 (5): Clint Frazier (twice), DJ LeMahieu (twice), Giancarlo Stanton (once)
• 2019 (10): Gio Urshela (four times), Gleyber Torres (three times), Luke Voit (three times)
• 2018 (14): Giancarlo Stanton (three times), Didi Gregorius (twice), Aaron Judge (twice), Aaron Hicks (twice), Gary Sanchez (twice), Austin Romine (once), Luke Voit (once), Tyler Wade (once)
• 2017 (6): Brett Gardner (twice), Gary Sanchez (twice), Aaron Judge (twice)
• 2016 (8): Starlin Castro (twice), Carlos Beltran (twice), Alex Rodriguez (once), Gary Sanchez (once), Donovan Solano (once), Ronald Torreyes (once)

The all-time leader in triple short of the cycle games is Lou Gehrig with 42. Babe Ruth is second with 41 and A-Rod is third with 39. Miguel Cabrera (37) and Albert Pujols (36) round out the top five. The all-time single season leader is Matt Holliday with nine such games for the 2007 Rockies. Eight players have done it seven times in a season, including Alfonso Soriano with the 2002 Yankees.

Cycles are more rare than no-hitters, you know. There have been 307 no-hitters and 330 cycles, but in any given game there are 18 chances at a cycle (nine hitters per team) and only two chances at a no-hitter (one per team). For a single team, there are 162 no-hitter opportunities and 1,458 cycle opportunities per season. No-hitters and cycles have happened roughly the same number of times in baseball history, but there are way more chances at a cycle, so they happen with less frequency, if that makes sense.

(I don’t know how to look up how often hitters get the triple to complete the cycle, but there is a four-minute video on YouTube of hitters doing exactly that, so that’s my non-answer. It has happened often enough in recent years to make a four-minute compilation video.)

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