March 12th, 2021: Chirinos, Roster Check-In, Prospects, Mailbag

Opening Day is less than three weeks away and I can feel Spring Training fatigue setting in. I’ve gone from “yay baseball’s back!” to “just get spring over with so no one else gets hurt before the regular season.” Here is the updated Spring Training broadcast schedule (MLB Network released their full schedule, so that’s final) and here are today’s thoughts.

1. Chirinos fractures wrist. The Yankees are not blessed with great catching depth and they just lost their most veteran depth catcher to injury. Robinson Chirinos took a fastball to the right wrist Wednesday night and suffered a fracture, the Yankees announced. Here’s the video. He’ll see a specialist in the coming days to determine whether he needs surgery.

“Just feeling for Robinson right now. Taking that ball off the wrist and finding out that he does indeed have a fracture,” Aaron Boone told Marly Rivera. “Now the information is getting in front of some specialists to determine what the next step is. Is it surgery? is it not? Those things will become more clear in the next couple of days. It's been awesome having Robinson in here. I especially hurt for him today knowing how much he's put into trying to be a part of this team.”

Chirinos, 36, was 1-for-5 with a homer this spring, and runners were a perfect 6-for-6 stealing bases against him. He wasn’t good last year (.162/.232/.243 and 32 wRC+) and he hasn’t been a good defender in years now, so there’s a chance he’s toast. That said, Chirinos is about as good as it gets with veteran catchers on minor league contracts.

With Chirinos hurt, Rob Brantly moves up to third on the catcher depth chart and I guess Kellin Deglan or Max McDowell is fourth? Yikes. I expect the Yankees to bring in another catcher between now and Opening Day. They kinda have to. Chirinos was never going to take Gary Sanchez’s or Kyle Higashioka’s job, but he was a decent injury replacement option.

There are four catchers with MLB experience sitting in free agency: Tyler Flowers, Rene Rivera, Matt Wieters, and the quasi-retired Russell Martin. The Yankees have had interest in Flowers in the past, particularly during the 2015 Winter Meetings, so they could revisit that. Flowers hasn’t hit much the last few years, but he will put a mistake in the seats, and is still an elite framer.

Drew Butera, Bryan Holaday, Sandy Leon, and Jeff Mathis are veteran catchers on minor league contracts with an opt out before Opening Day. There are probably others, but those are the guys with six-plus years of service time who automatically get an opt out. Mathis went from catching strays Tuesday to looking pretty good Friday. I get what I deserve.

Trade targets? Gosh, I have no idea. Teams don’t like to give up catching depth at any time, and especially not before the season begins. Maybe the Athletics will move Austin Allen or Aramis Garcia? Anthony Bemboom is a framing guy and he’s third on the Angels depth chart, so maybe he’s a fit? The Brewers, Rangers, and Tigers look like they have some extra catchers.

Chirinos was never going to make the Opening Day roster unless someone got hurt, and it turns out he’s the guy who went down with an injury. Bummer. The Yankees have to do something to replenish their catching depth soon, because they’re a foul tip or pulled hamstring away from having a Triple-A catcher in MLB and Double-A catchers in Triple-A.

2. Roster check-in. There have been several developments since our initial Spring Training roster check-in two weeks ago. Robinson Chirinos got hurt, Zack Britton got hurt, Jay Bruce is socking dingers, Lucas Luetge is spinning the crap out of the ball, and Greg Allen cleared outright waivers. Opening Day is two weeks and six days away, so let’s update the roster projection.

Those 22 players are pretty well locked into Opening Day roster spots. Maybe you think Estrada can beat out Wade for the backup infielder’s spot, but I’m here to tell you that won’t happen. The Yankees have given no indication the job is anyone’s but Wade’s. They need a backup shortstop on the bench and Wade is the best defensive shortstop in the organization.

Aaron Boone is talking about Loaisiga like he’s already on the team -- “We’ll build him up. He’s got versatility,” Boone told Dan Martin recently -- and I’m comfortable saying he’ll be on the Opening Day roster based on that, and based on how the Yankees have used him the last few years. They really like Loaisiga and keep giving him opportunities. He’ll get another one in 2021.

There are four Opening Day roster spots up for grabs at this point (some are more up for grabs than others), and I think we’ve seen enough to start whittling down the list of candidates for each opening. Let’s update the competition for the open spots.

BN4: Bruce needed to have a big spring to make this a serious competition and he’s done that, going 5-for-13 (.385) with two homers so far. Dietrich has been less impressive (1-for-8 with a homer) and Andujar isn’t doing enough to win a job (2-for-15). Estrada, Ford, and Velazquez are listed as BN4 candidates almost as a courtesy. I don’t think they’re serious candidates.

I think this is currently a two-horse race between Bruce and Tauchman, with the door not completely closed on Dietrich or Andujar. Tauchman’s had a slow spring (2-for-12 with a homer), but I don’t think the Yankees will put much stock into that. Do they want to use a bench spot on the veteran bat-only guy, or the cheaper player who will give them defense and baserunning, and maybe possibly hit too?

Gardner makes Tauchman redundant. Bruce would eat up approximately 25% of the team’s available luxury tax payroll space, and he wouldn’t play much in a perfect world. The world is not perfect though, and injuries and rest days will open up at-bats. Right now, I think Bruce is on the roster and Tauchman will be traded for nothing in particular (a third catcher type to replace Chirinos?) Prediction: Bruce.

"At this point, everything we could have hoped for, we’re seeing," Boone told Martin when asked about Bruce on Thursday. "From the offensive side, but (also) with the defensive versatility and what we think is the ability to play first."

SP5: I have made the executive decision to remove Chacin from the fifth starter’s race because he’s had a rough spring. The results haven’t been good (4 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 4 K) and he’s sat around 91 mph with his fastball, and his slider’s been iffy. Sometimes it’s easy to see why a guy had to settle for a minor league deal, and yeah, I see why Chacin settled for a minor league deal.

Also, Chacin hasn’t actually started a game, which is telling. We’re deep enough into spring that legitimate rotation candidates are making starts, not relief appearances. King made one start (the Grapefruit League opener) and has come out of the bullpen since. He’s throwing multiple innings and getting stretched out, but it doesn’t seem like King is a true No. 5 starter candidate.

That means this is a two-man battle between Garcia and German, which is what I’ve assumed since before Spring Training even opened. They’ve both pitched well with German (5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K) being a bit better than Garcia (5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 8 K), though it’s not like Deivi is taking himself out of the running. They’re neck and neck, or close to it.

My hunch is the Yankees want German to win the job so they can send Garcia to the alternate site to control his workload and make sure he’s in the best position to help them later in the season and postseason. I don’t think they’ll give German the No. 5 spot no matter what, but I think they want him to win it. So far, he’s done nothing to lose it. Prediction: German.

RP7 & RP8: Britton is hurt and it looks like Abreu has a fourth minor league option, so that won’t break any ties. I removed Cortes and (Luis) Garcia from this race because they’ve had rough springs (six runs in 5.1 innings combined), and while the losers of the No. 5 starter’s race could wind up in the bullpen, Boone didn’t seem to love the idea. “I guess that’s possible,” he told Martin recently.

The hot name right now is Luetge, who struck out two more batters and got four more misses on seven swings Thursday. He’s up to a 71.4% strikeout rate and a 63.6% whiffs-per-swing rate this spring. The thing is, Luetge pitched the ninth inning Thursday, so he faced minor leaguers. He’s faced 14 hitters this spring but only three legitimate MLB hitters (he struck out all three, naturally).

If the Yankees are seriously considering Luetge for a bullpen spot, they should probably get him into games a little earlier these next few weeks so he faces better competition. The guy threw a 3-1 curveball with two outs in the ninth inning with a five-run lead Thursday. What minor leaguer is expecting that? I’d like to see Luetge challenged more before fully buying in.

That said, the Yankees have done nothing but praise Luetge this spring -- “A lot of people are talking about him. He is opening eyes with how he is performing, and the quality of the stuff, too. He has swing-and-miss pitches,” assistant GM Mike Fishman told Joel Sherman -- and the greatly improved spin rates tangibly explain for his success. A refresher:

• Fastball: 2,770 rpm (2,578 rpm in 2015; 2,306 rpm league average)
• Curveball: 2,866 rpm (2,329 rpm in 2015; 2,532 rpm league average)
• Slider: 2,801 rpm (1,975 rpm in 2015; 2,441 rpm league average)

Nelson’s had a good spring as well (5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K) and I know the Yankees really like him. It’s not an accident he spent so much time on the MLB roster last year (and was on the postseason roster). They believe in the stuff and think he can be an good (possible great) reliever right now, and potentially an impact starter down the line.

“Really with Nelly, I could see any and everything,” Boone recently told Greg Joyce. “I could see him continuing to develop as a starter. I’m quite certain he can impact our bullpen in a short situation but also have the ability to give us innings as well. He’s someone that we’ll continue to talk a lot about and have conversations and try to do not only what’s best for him but ultimately what’s best for us moving forward this year. But he certainly is going to figure into the plans, I would think, at some point.”

Abreu (bad spring), Kriske (okay spring), and Warren (good spring) are still in this race, I believe, and we shouldn’t rule out King given all the time he spent in the big leagues last year, or German or (Deivi) Garcia for that matter. Could someone like Barraclough or Lyons swoop in and steal a bullpen spot the next few weeks? Sure. Do I expect it to happen? No. No I do not.

The Yankees will undoubtedly use at least one of the two open bullpen spots as a revolving door so they can shuttle guys in and out. They might even use both as revolving doors. As things stand, Luetge and Nelson have pitched well enough and have had enough good things said about them that I think they’re the frontrunners. How long they keep the job after Opening Day is another matter. Prediction: Luetge and Nelson.

3. Spring Training roster cuts. In a normal Spring Training, this would be about the time we start to see teams making roster cuts and reassigning players to minor league camp. Some teams have started doing that too. The Diamondbacks, Mets, Red Sox, and White Sox all announced roster cuts earlier this week.

The Yankees have not made their first round of roster cuts and Aaron Boone indicated the team isn’t planning to make any roster moves anytime soon, though they are moving people around the complex. From Dan Martin:

Boone said there are so far no plans to make any cuts to major league camp, but they will take advantage of (this past) Monday’s off day to rearrange where some players are, with more players on the 40-man roster expected to move from the minor league complex to Steinbrenner Field by Tuesday.

Early on in camp the Yankees had the pitchers and catchers over at the minor league complex, and the position players on the main field at George M. Steinbrenner Field (last week Brett Gardner said he still hadn’t met Corey Kluber). Now that Grapefruit League games are underway, everyone is starting to mingle, and the players aren’t so separated.

The first round of roster cuts typically includes prospects and lower level minor leaguers. The kids who have no real chance at playing in MLB this season. As the Yankees go about their reshuffling, these are the guys I would expect to be among those separated from the MLB players in the first round of cuts (“cuts”):

• Catchers: Josh Breaux, Anthony Seigler, Austin Wells
• Infielders: Ezequiel Duran, Oswald Peraza
• Outfielders: Michael Beltre, Thomas Milone
• Pitchers: Luis Gil, Yoendrys Gomez, Luis Medina, Glenn Otto, Alex Vizcaino

Here’s a thing I just noticed: Vizcaino has not appeared in a Grapefruit League game yet. The Yankees have 35 pitchers in camp and only three haven’t pitched in a game: Vizcaino, Zack Britton (injured), and Clarke Schmidt (injured). Odds we could put a little (injured) next to Vizcaino’s name? Annoyingly high. Groan.

Anyway, being separated from the big leaguers doesn’t mean these players would be ineligible to play in Grapefruit League games. That’s not how it works in a normal Spring Training either. Players who get reassigned to minor league camp can still be brought back to play in games. This just means the players who are “reassigned” will do their work in another location.

Eventually the Yankees will have to make legitimate roster moves to set their Opening Day roster rather than simply move lockers around. That’s still more than two weeks away though. For now, the Yankees will move some personnel around and start to separate the MLB players from everyone else, and we won’t be able to read between the lines and figure out who has a leg up on an Opening Day roster spot based on roster cuts.

4. Minor league roundup. Spring Training and the Grapefruit League season are in full swing, and prospect ranking season is just about over. Here’s my annual Top 30 Yankees Prospects List. In recent weeks the usual publications (Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, etc.) have produced similar lists, as well as their global prospect rankings.

With that in mind, I wanted to round up the various prospects lists and break down where the Yankees sit and why, and where the farm system goes from here. Let’s dive into that and some other minor league news as well.

Top 100 prospects

The Yankees only had one player, Jasson Dominguez, appear on every top 100 prospects list this spring. Here are the top 100 links: Baseball America (subs. req’d), Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, Keith Law (subs. req’d), Kiley McDaniel (subs. req’d), and MLB.com.

If a player did not appear on a top 100 list, I plugged in a 150 to calculate his average. Medina made Law’s 10 who just missed the top 100 post (subs. req’d), so he’s included at No. 110. The FanGraphs list is 133 players deep because they include everyone they rank as a 50 future value on the 20-80 scouting scale (i.e. future average player) rather than arbitrarily cut off at 100 names.

Dominguez has not played a professional game yet, and the fact his lowest top 100 rank is No. 66 is pretty incredible. You have to ding him a bit because he has no track record (even 2020 draftees have a fairly lengthy track record in amateur games), and Dominguez still ranking that high tells you everyone loves the talent. I look forward to him beginning his career in earnest this year.

Schmidt is a consensus back of the top 100 prospect. Garcia is all over the place. He was No. 17 on one list and left off another entirely. Jim Callis says Deivi just missed their top 100 after ranking No. 87 last year. Going from No. 87 one year to outside the top 100 the next isn’t crazy. The gap isn’t big, and Callis & Co. are in the minority anyway. All others ranked Deivi firmly in the top 100.

The average rankings say the Yankees have three top 100 caliber prospects in the system right now. Dominguez is a top 50 guy while Garcia and Schmidt are in the back half. Garcia will graduate to MLB this season. He is 15.2 innings away from the 50-inning rookie limit, and if he doesn’t hit that this year, something’s gone wrong. Schmidt could graduate as well. He’s 43.2 innings away.

My super early guess is Dominguez, Peraza, Vargas, and Austin Wells are top 100 prospects at this time next year. If Schmidt doesn’t graduate, it likely means he was hurt or ineffective this season, which could bump him off top 100 lists. He’s not exactly high up on the top 100 lists as it is. T.J. Sikkema is my top 100 sleeper for next year. Lefty starter with good stuff who checks all the analytics boxes (spin rate, etc.). I can see him having a good season and getting rave reviews.

Farm system rankings

Five years ago the Yankees had arguably the best farm system in the game. Graduations and trades dropped them into the bottom third of the league the last 2-3 years, and now they’re back in the middle of the pack. Here are their farm system ranks and a portion of the write-ups:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 18. “(Much) of the Yankees' value on the farm lies in its upside … Their group is also heavy on hard-throwing righthanders.”
• Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d): No. 9. “Big arms with 2021 or 2022 impact ... I’m not sure about any of the bats yet.”
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 14. “The Yankees seem to develop velocity as well as any organization and have used it to great effect for their own system and for packaging unheralded prospects into bigger trades.”
• Kiley McDaniel (subs. req’d): No. 15. “The Yankees are probably the best example of how to lose a lot of value on this list this year without losing actual real-world value.”

With all due respect, McDaniel’s farm system write-up is analytical gobbledygook. I’m sure there’s an audience for it, but this is not the sort of baseball writing that will resonate with the masses:

Garcia got the generic 55 FV (future value) while being the second-to-last player in the tier, so his slight downgrade was exacerbated by the value metric, or said another way, he was overrated by my tabulation process last year. Schmidt got the generic 50 FV grade last year and now gets the bottom-of-the-tier value. There's a pretty big drop-off in the value of 50 FV to 45+ FV for empirical reasons, but Alcantara and Vargas didn't get any worse, there was just some optimism and momentum priced into their grades last year that's gone for now, but could easily come back.

Lordy. Anyway, middle of the pack is not great, but the Yankees were consistently in the 20-25 range the last few years, so they’re inching up the rankings despite making three draft picks in 2020, and having one of the smallest international bonus pools in the sport each year. Their ability to add high-end talent to the farm system is limited, and yet they’re climbing the rankings.

The farm system is heavy on lower minors prospects with big upside like Alcantara, Dominguez, Peraza, and Vargas. Every team has high-upside teenagers in their system but Dominguez is special, and not every team has an Alcantara or a Vargas either. Prospects that young are very risky, but even if the Yankees only hit on one of those players, they’ll have a star.

The Yankees will graduate Garcia and could graduate Schmidt this summer, which will take a bite out of the system. I think there’s so much room for growth (Dominguez and Wells beginning their pro careers, Alcantara and Vargas playing full seasons, etc.) that the farm system will rank even higher next year despite those potential graduations. This is a system trending up.

Composite organizational rankings

These interests me more than the average top 100 or farm system rankings. The various outlets release top however many Yankees prospects lists, so I averaged them out to get composite rankings. Here are the links: Baseball America (subs. req’d), Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d), FanGraphs, Keith Law (subs. req’d), Kiley McDaniel (subs. req’d), and MLB.com.

55 different players appeared on at least one top Yankees prospect list this spring and, without fail, prospect tiers emerge based on the composite rankings. Here is my spreadsheet and here are the first few tiers:

• Tier 1: Jasson Dominguez, Deivi Garcia, Clarke Schmidt
• Tier 2: Kevin Alcantara, Luis Gil, Luis Medina, Oswald Peraza, Austin Wells
• Tier 3: Ezequiel Duran, Estevan Florial, Yoendrys Gomez, Alex Vargas, Alex Vizcaino, Anthony Volpe
• Tier 4: Albert Abreu, Josh Breaux, Antonio Gomez, Everson Pereira, T.J. Sikkema, Anthony Seigler, Josh Smith, Beck Way

I had to take some liberties to compile the rankings. For example, Baseball Prospectus lists the top 10 prospects and then “the next 10,” which are in alphabetical order, so I used a 20 for each of those prospects to calculate the average. Also, I plugged in a 50 for players who did not appear on a given list to calculate the average. Not ideal, but it works for our purposes.

I always find it interesting to see who gets grouped together within each tier, because while everyone loves lists and ranking prospects 1-30 or whatever is fun, there usually isn’t a huge gap between, say, spots 15 and 17, or 20 and 25. I feel slotting guys into tiers does a better job explaining who falls where in the system rather than straight ranking.

Dominguez, Garcia, and Schmidt are clearly the class of the system. There’s a significant gap between their average rankings and the No. 4 player (Medina). The second tier is a classic “these guys all have huge upside but really short track records” tier, and you can see a scenario in which those players move into the top tier this season, or fall back into a lower tier.

The third tier is similar to the second tier, albeit with a little less something (upside, track record, etc.). After that, you start to get into talented players who have maybe stalled out, or are just starting their careers. The tiers get a little less exciting each step down but they're all legitimate prospects. They’re just further away from making an MLB impact.

Opening Day assignments

As part of my annual Top 30 Prospect List (and Not Top 30) I discuss where I expect each player to begin the season, and that was difficult to figure out this year, after a lost minor league season. There’s always some guesswork involved. There was more guesswork than ever this year.

Here’s where I expect my top 30 prospects to begin the season, with a few other notable names included just to give a more complete picture:

The DH spot is used to spread the workload around in the minors. Seigler and Wells will both see plenty of action at catcher. My listed Low-A Tampa infield situation leads me to believe Volpe could begin the year in Extended Spring Training. He’s barely played as a pro and that allows everyone (Volpe, Peraza, Duran) to play their natural positions.

The gaps will be filled with other prospects and organizational players, but that’s how I think the Opening Day assignments will shake out. As noted earlier, the system is built around lower level prospects with big upside, and you can see the talent gap at High-A and Double-A. Rookie ball and Low-A will be fun! High-A and Double-A? Eh, not so much.

Minor league rule experiments

Now that MLB has completed its hostile takeover of the minors, they’re free to do things like announce sweeping rule experiments six weeks before the season begins. MLB did just that earlier this week. Here are the rules they’re going to test out at the various levels this year (have fun learning the new rules each time you're promoted, prospects):

• Triple-A: Larger bases (18 square inches rather than 15 square inches).
• Double-A: Infielders must have two feet on the infield dirt before the pitch.
• High-A: Pitchers must completely step off before making a pickoff throw.
• All Low-A leagues: Pitchers can make a total of two step off moves or pickoff throws per plate appearance. The third is a balk.
• Low-A Southeast: Automated strike zone (Tampa Tarpons are in this league).
• Low-A West: Pitch clock with more restrictions than what is currently used in Double-A and Triple-A.

MLB is testing larger bases for safety reasons, particularly to avoid those nasty collisions at first base, and I’m cool with that. They're also trying to promote stolen bases (or taking the extra base) by shortening the distance between bases. MLB tested the “step off before a pickoff throw” rule in the independent Atlantic League last year and they went from 1.03 steals per game (75% success rate) to 1.69 per game (81% success rate). Sure seems like the powers that be are trying to find a way to create action.

I’m cool with testing out the automated strike zone (gotta try it somewhere, right?) and I am pro-pitch clock. I’m ready for it in the big leagues. I don’t know what to think about the two step off/pickoff limit. That’s a weird one and I’m not sure what problem we’re solving. Limiting throws over and promoting stolen bases? Okay, but pitchers will vary their times more, so they’re just going to slow the game down in a different way. Shrug.

Forcing infielders to keep two feet on the dirt is a step toward banning the shift and I don’t like it at all. I don’t like putting restrictions on what teams can do with their players. Let them innovate. I don’t consider “because we did it this way for 100 years!” a good reason to do something (or not do something). Stifling creativity is no way to move your sport forward.

Also, my tepid take is banning the shift will only encourage hitters to pull the ball more and sell out for power, which will lead to more homers and more strikeouts (and more walks too), and further exacerbate the three-true outcomes problem that keeps Rob Manfred up at night. MLB is good at nothing if not unintended consequences. Have they really thought this through? I guess this is why you test things in Double-A before bringing it to MLB.

To me, baseball’s two biggest problems are the decline in balls in play, and the downtime within games. Nearly one-third of all plate appearances ended in a strikeout or walk last year (32.6%, to be exact) and that’s a lot. Too much. Baseball needs more balls in play so players can showcase their athleticism and fans have more reasons to stay engaged.

The downtime is why I’m pro-pitch clock. It’s not about shortening the game. It’s about speeding up the pace so there’s less standing around and less time between events. Sean Forman gave the world this graph showing average time between balls in play by season last August and I haven’t been able to get it out of my head since:

Three minutes and 44 seconds between balls in play last season, and look how steep the increase has been the last few years. It’s becoming untenable. I don’t care if it takes five hours to play a nine-inning game as long as there’s action. When we’re waiting nearly four minutes between balls in play or close to 30 seconds between pitches, it’s hard for the mind to not wander.

I don’t know how you reduce the league strikeout rate when hitting analytics are years behind pitching analytics, and teams are building literal pitching labs to help their pitchers throw harder and develop nastier breaking balls. A pitch clock can at least chip away at the downtime within games. There’s more work to be done though. Anyway, I don’t know how I wound up here in a post about minor league rules, but that’s my two cents.

5. Dominguez in 2021. Andre Fernandez has scored the first interview with Jasson Dominguez that I’ve seen, and it’s not behind the Baseball America paywall, so make sure you check it out. Dominguez spent the early days of the shutdown with a family member in New Jersey, and once he was able to return to the Dominican Republic, he had to shed the weight he gained (gaining weight during quarantine is very relatable).

“I went to stay with my aunt in New Jersey. I was pretty much on my own. I have a cousin up there, but he has a job so he couldn’t take the time to really help me much,” Dominguez said. “... I needed to lose a little weight when I first got home, and I was able to do that. My focus was on increasing my agility and flexibility, so I did a lot of those types of exercises.”

Dominguez spent the summer hitting against pitching machines that throw breaking balls, and also working on his outfield play. Videos on social media show he was able to play in games organized by his representatives. It’s not much, but it’s better than nothing, and it’s more than a lot of minor leaguers were able to do in 2020.

“You have to be alert at all times in center field and study the hitters you’re facing more so you know where to position yourself properly and have the best chance to make plays. My work has gone well up to now, but my focus has to be greater in order to succeed,” Dominguez said. “... I have a lot of ability, but after I signed I learned quickly it’s not just about ability. There are a lot of things you have to learn. I feel more comfortable now going into this season.”

Back in Nov. 2019, I wrote Dominguez could make his MLB debut at age 20 similar to Ronald Acuna, Rafael Devers, Vlad Guerrero Jr., and Fernando Tatis Jr. Debuting at age 19 like Juan Soto wasn’t out of the question but that’s not an expectation I would put on any player. Debuting at 19 is historic. Debuting at 20 is insane. Debuting at 21 is pretty awesome too.

The pandemic changed everything. It essentially pushed Dominguez’s timetable back a year. He turned 18 in February and the super optimistic timeline is Rookie ball (and maybe a little Low-A) in 2021, Low-A and High-A in 2022, Double-A and Triple-A and MLB in 2023. That would put Dominguez on track to debut at age 20. More likely, he’ll hit a bump somewhere along the way, and his debut will come at age 21 in 2024, which is still pretty darn good.

Brian Cashman was asked about Dominguez’s outlook earlier this month and his response was basically a shrug emoji. They’re focused on getting this kid into games and nothing more. From Dan Martin:

“He hasn’t played a minor league game yet,” general manager Brian Cashman said of the 18-year-old Dominguez, who signed with the Yankees for $5.1 million in 2019. “Despite his name, his notoriety, his signing bonus, he’s now one of many. He’ll be competing for a roster spot. On what roster that turns out to be remains to be seen.”

…

“We need to get his career going, just like a number of prospects we have that had their development stalled because of COVID,” Cashman said. “We look forward to getting minor league baseball back. There’s no way to [get better] besides playing in games. It’s vitally important we get that back sooner rather than later.”

It’s too bad the short season leagues were eliminated, because Rookie Pulaski was a higher caliber of competition than the Gulf Coast League, and that would’ve been a great place to send Dominguez this season. Vlad Jr. and Wander Franco, the last two international uber-prospects, made their pro debuts in the Appalachian League. They skipped over the GCL.

After a lost season, I think Extended Spring Training is a given, then the GCL it will have to be. The Yankees could bump Dominguez up to Low-A Tampa at some point, especially now that it’s right across the street from the GCL, though I think he’ll have to really light it up and force the issue. Otherwise I think the Yankees will let Dominguez catch his breath and adjust to pro ball in one place this year.

No one really knows what to expect from any minor leaguer coming out of the shutdown but I’m betting on Dominguez hitting the ground running and dominating right away. He got into some quasi-game action last year and the tools are outrageous, and he should stand out like a man among boys in the GCL. It’s been a long time since I was this excited for a prospect’s debut.

“He’s like everybody else in the minor league population,” Cashman told Martin. “Waiting for a minor league Spring Training report time and see where it takes him.”

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Couple of miscellaneous injury notes. Luis Severino threw 20 pitches, all fastballs, off a mound Tuesday. It was his first bullpen session since Tommy John surgery and everything went well. Getting back up on a mound is a big rehab milestone and Severino just cleared it. Good news. Luke Voit was scratched from Tuesday’s game with a sore right knee but he was back in the lineup Thursday (at DH), and was feeling frisky enough that he tried to tag up and take third base on a fly ball to left (he was thrown out). I look forward to “knee stuff” replacing “foot stuff” as this year’s nagging injury. Clint Frazier crashed into the wall Tuesday and was back in the lineup Thursday. He suffered a concussion hitting the wall a few springs ago, you may remember. Glad he escaped this one with no injuries … I completely forgot about this until Aaron Boone mentioned it during his in-game interview with the YES Network the other day: Aroldis Chapman has to serve his two-game suspension (reduced from three on appeal) for throwing over Mike Brosseau’s head when the regular season begins. The Yankees will be without their closer (suspended) and ace setup man (injured) those first two games against the Blue Jays. There’s an off-day between the two games, which will help with the bullpen workload. The Yankees should just score a lot of runs and not worry about a save opportunity. Sounds like a plan … Welcome to Spring Training, Estevan Florial. His visa issue has been resolved and he joined the Yankees on Tuesday, after clearing intake testing, Boone told Marly Rivera. Florial missed about two weeks of workouts and 11 Grapefruit League games (so far). Not the end of the world. It’s just annoying things keep popping up and keeping Florial out of games (injuries, the pandemic, visa issues, etc.) … And finally, Kyle Glaser (subs. req’d) put together a good study looking at the number of big leaguers each team's farm system produced from 1998 (last expansion) to 2012 (recent but not so recent that there are still many prospects in the minors who’ve yet to reach MLB). Here’s where the Yankees rank in the various categories:

• MLB players (includes cups of coffee): 42.3 in the system on average (1st in MLB)
• Players who spent 3+ years in MLB: 13.0 in the system on average (7th in MLB)
• MLB All-Stars: 3.93 in the system on average (10th in MLB)

For reference, the average farm system from 1998-2012 had 35 future big leaguers, 11 future 3+ year big leaguers, and three future All-Stars. The Yankees’ best year was 55 (!) future big leaguers and an MLB high 21 future 3+ year players in 2007. They had six future All-Stars in the system in multiple years. The Orioles rank near the bottom of all three lists, which isn’t the most surprising thing in the world given how little success they had from 1998-2012 (and beyond). Pretty interesting stuff though. There are a lot more future big leaguers in the average farm system than I would’ve guessed.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Jason asks: Is it too soon to be worried about Taillon’s velocity? Seems to be a couple of ticks down from what he was throwing before the second TJ. Understandable that he’s coming off of a long layoff, but he was throwing sim games by the end of last year, and seems to have had a normal offseason. But should we be worried that the new short-arm delivery is taking something off his fastball?

I think it’s too early to worry. Jameson Taillon is coming off his second Tommy John surgery and he’s thrown a whopping 25 fastballs in his two Grapefruit League outings, so it’s not much of a sample at this point. The fastball numbers quick:

• 2018 (full, healthy season): 95.9 mph average and 99.2 mph max
• 2019 (37.1 innings before injury): 95.2 mph and 98.3 mph
• 2021 (25 fastballs in spring): 92.6 mph and 93.8 mph

Taillon did rework his mechanics and the new shorter arm action could explain the diminished velocity, but I don’t think we can say that definitively yet. It’s early in Spring Training and he’s coming off a 22-month layoff. He even admitted the new mechanics are still a work in progress. Here’s what Taillon told Colin Martin following his most recent start:

"We're still in the information gathering stages, but for sure I've noticed pitching up in the zone to both sides of the plate," Taillon said. "I used to pitch up to lefties a good amount, but righties I was like sinkers in, and I would just throw my four-seam down and away. But like I got a strikeout today on a four-seam up in the top of zone. For me that's really exciting, because it's a pitch in the past I've just never put a ton of emphasis on.

"So if I have that part of the zone open to me against righties, that's really exciting. I feel like I can get away with a little more in the zone, so it's kind of a freeing feeling to say 'hey, I can rip this four-seam at the top of the zone with this hitter' and should have a good result, it's a swing and miss up there for me now. I used to be sinkers, I used to be pitch downhill and down, down in the zone, and I now I kind of got a few more weapons under my belt."

Taillon’s velocity is down quite a bit from the last time he was on a big league mound and I am going to keep an eye on it moving forward. I think it’s a little too early in the post-second Tommy John surgery process to worry. Also, it’s not like he’s out there throwing 86-88 mph. That would really scare me. 92-94 mph is plenty good enough to get outs.

George asks: Two-part SS question 1. Is it me, or are the Yanks overloaded with SS prospects? Seems like potentially adding Arias further creates an overabundance there 2. With the great SS free agent class next year, do you think the Yanks will be buyers, or does it depend on Gleyber's 2021 performance?

Only four of my Top 30 Prospects are shortstops (including three of the top 11). Oswaldo Cabrera, Hoy Jun Park, and the still prospect eligible Thairo Estrada did not make the Top 30 but are other shortstop prospects worth knowing. That’s not an inordinate amount. If anything, it’s a little light. Teams always hoard shortstops (and up the middle players in general) because they tend to be the best athletes, and you can more easily move them to other positions if necessary. There’s plenty of room for Roderick Arias in the system.

As of this moment, I don’t expect the Yankees to jump into next offseason’s shortstop free agent class. They have little money coming off the books after this season, and I don’t think there’s much appetite for another long-term deal with Gerrit Cole, DJ LeMahieu, and Giancarlo Stanton locked up (and Aaron Judge closing in on free agency). In order of personal preference, I’d rank the big name free agent shortstops like so:

1. Francisco Lindor
2. Corey Seager
3. Trevor Story
4. Javier Baez
5. Carlos Correa

To be clear, I’d take any of them, but someone has to be No. 1 and someone has to be No. 5, so that’s my order. I fully expect the Mets to lock up Lindor and I would be surprised if the Dodgers, who have no long-term big money deals on the books other than Mookie Betts, let Seager get away. Seager at short, Gleyber Torres at second, Gio Urshela at third, and LeMahieu in the “play every day at a different position” role would be fun, wouldn’t it?

Story is amazing and the biggest gap is between No. 3 and No. 4. When Baez hits, he’s a superstar because his defense and baserunning are so good. He’s one of the most exciting and watchable players in the sport. The problem is he chases everything, and when he’s not right, he’s liable to hit .203/.238/.360 (57 wRC+) like he did last season. Correa gets hurt a lot and that’s a drag. He’s played 352 of 546 possible games the last four years, or 64%.

If Gleyber falls on his face at short this season (I mean really falls on his face, not like -2 DRS or something), the Yankees would have to look at shortstop alternatives. I’m all for being patient with young players, but at some point the priority has to be winning games and putting the best team on the field. Other upcoming free agent shortstops include Brandon Crawford, Jose Iglesias, and the guys who signed one-year contracts this offseason (Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, etc.).

Rob asks: Do you think the Yankees turn Austin Wells into their version of Daulton Varsho to move him through the system with his advanced bat?

The Yankees could try but I don’t think Wells can make it work. Varsho is a personal favorite (he was a key piece of my Offseason Plan) and he’s very unique. His defense behind the plate is good enough that he projects to stay at catcher long-term, and he’s a good enough athlete to play a legitimate center field, and even play a little second base.

Wells can hit -- given what I know right now, I take Wells’ bat over Varsho’s (and I love Varsho) -- but he’s not as good defensively as Varsho. Certainly not behind the plate, and while he’s a good athlete, it doesn’t sound like he’s a center field athlete. The Yankees could try to turn Wells into a catcher/first base/left field type. That’d be cool and useful. I’m not sure the kid can play multiple premium positions like Varsho though. That’s asking a lot of any player, and the reason Varsho stands out.

Dave asks: Here is something trivial but nonetheless something I can't stop thinking about: Now that Adam Ottavino has moved on, any guesses as to who will be next to wear number "0", the only single digit left.

I think it’ll be a while before we see another No. 0 in pinstripes. There aren’t many big leaguers who wear No. 0 in general. Five players wore it last year: Ottavino, Austin Dean (three games with Cardinals), Delino DeShields Jr. (37 games with Cleveland), Nick Heath (15 games with Royals), and Mallex Smith (14 games with Mariners). Ottavino and Smith were the only players to wear No. 0 in 2019. Terrance Gore wore No. 0 during his various call-ups from 2014-17.

The Yankees can be uptight and I don’t think they’d issue No. 0. A player will have to request it. Rookies don’t request numbers (they take whatever they’re given because they're supposed to just be happy they're in the big leagues), so it would have to be a veteran, like Ottavino. Ottavino is the only prominent big leaguer wearing No. 0, so unless the Yankees get desperate for outfield help and sign Smith or Gore at some point, I’ll say the next Yankee to wear No. 0 is not in the league right now.

My guess: Jasson Dominguez. Why not? He’s got a cool nickname (The Martian), so you might as well give him a cool and unique number too. If nothing else, seeing No. 0 flanked by No. 77 and No. 99 in the outfield would be pretty neat. Think how many MARTIAN 0 t-shirts the Yankees would sell. Probably a ton more than a generic DOMINGUEZ 22 (or whatever number) t-shirts.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)