March 5th, 2021: Boone, Abreu, Alternate Site, Arias, Kluber, Mailbag

The first five Grapefruit League games are in the books and the Yankees have been so bad the manager needed a pacemaker. I kid, I kid. No one’s gotten hurt yet, so the first week of Spring Training games have gone well as far as I’m concerned. Here is the updated Spring Training television broadcast schedule and here are today’s thoughts.

1. Boone’s leave of absence. Earlier this week the Yankees announced Aaron Boone is taking a medical leave of absence to undergo a heart procedure. He needed a pacemaker. Boone was born with a heart defect and had open heart surgery in 2009, and the pacemaker news came out of nowhere. If this was planned in advance, the Yankees didn’t say anything.

Boone turns 48 next week and needing a pacemaker just sounds scary. He spent only one night at the hospital though (modern medicine is amazing) and Boone could return to the team fairly soon. This was his statement when the leave of absence was announced:

“As many of you know, I underwent open-heart surgery in 2009, and I wanted everyone to understand where I’m at regarding the procedure that’s taking place today,” said Boone. “Over the last six-to-eight weeks I’ve had mild symptoms of lightheadedness, low energy and shortness of breath. As a result, I underwent a series of tests and examinations in New York prior to the beginning of spring training, including multiple visits with a team of heart specialists. While the heart checkup came back normal, there were indications of a low heart rate which, after further consultations with doctors in Tampa, necessitates a pacemaker.

“My faith is strong, and my spirits are high. I’m in a great frame of mind because I know I’m in good hands with the doctors and medical staff here at St. Joseph’s Hospital. They are confident that today’s surgery will allow me to resume all of my usual professional and personal activities and afford me a positive long-term health prognosis without having to change anything about my way of life. I look forward to getting back to work in the next several days, but during my short-term absence, I have complete trust that our coaches, staff and players will continue their training and preparation at the same level as we’ve had and without any interruption.

“I also want to take this opportunity to remind all those dealing with heart issues to remain vigilant in your care and to reach out to your doctor should you have any symptoms of discomfort or trouble. Any issue involving the heart has the potential to be serious. Staying on top of your health is always the first and most important thing you can do for yourself and your family.”

The internet tells me the typical recovery time for pacemaker surgery is anywhere from a few days to a few weeks, which isn’t particularly helpful. Although Boone said he expects to return soon, Brian Cashman said the Yankees will give him as much time as necessary to get back to full health, because of course they will. You don’t rush back from heart surgery.

“All we care about is him,” Cashman told Bryan Hoch. “I really applaud him for being open with our fans through the media and sharing what he’s going through. He wanted to assure everyone that this has become a routine procedure and it’s just something that’s necessary. It’s time to get it out of the way and (he’ll) see you sooner rather than later.”

Bench coach Carlos Mendoza will serve as interim manager. If Boone were to miss part of the regular season, third base coach Phil Nevin stands out as a candidate to step in as interim bench coach. He was a Triple-A manager for several years and is the most veteran “baseball guy” on the coaching staff. Triple-A Scranton manager Doug Davis was the 2003-04 Marlins bench coach and could be elevated to the MLB staff temporarily.

“With the group of coaches and personnel we have here in camp, that’s the goal (to stay the course),” Mendoza told Greg Joyce. “The mindset doesn’t change. We continue communication among the coaches, making sure we communicate with the players the plan, practice plan, schedules, playing time. That communication continues to happen on a daily basis. We have a really good group of coaches here and really good personnel that our goal is to continue to get these guys ready to play the regular season.”

I don’t have much to say here other than I wish Boone a quick and smooth recovery, and I hope he’s able to return in fairly short order. Don’t push it though. The heart is nothing to mess with and there’s still a dang pandemic going on. This is only Spring Training. Camp will run smoothly without Boone the next few days, or however long he needs.

“(Mendoza) is obviously running Major League Spring Training (as the bench coach), so he’s heavily running the show already, regardless,” Cashman told Joyce.

2. Abreu’s fourth option? There have been rumblings the last few weeks that Albert Abreu may qualify for a fourth minor league option, which would be significant. A fourth option would allow the Yankees to send him to Triple-A this year (Abreu has never pitched at Triple-A), which is what he needs at this point. Developmentally, a fourth option would be good for him.

There are a few reasons a player can qualify for a fourth option, including injuries, and Abreu is one of several players across the league in fourth option limbo. This is not a “fans don’t know if he has a fourth option” situation. This is a “the Yankees don’t even know if he has a fourth option” situation. Derrick Goold explained things earlier this week:

According to MLB rules: “Players typically have three option years, but those who have accrued less than five full seasons (including both the major and minors) are eligible for a fourth if their three options have been exhausted already. For the purposes of this rule, spending at least 90 days on an active Major League or Minor League roster during a given season counts as one full season.”

...

While salaries were prorated for the 2020 season, a full season of service time was given to players who spent the 60-game schedule in the majors. Service time overall was prorated, but that same agreement does not automatically apply to whether the season is, by definition, "full" if it didn't reach 90 days.

Goold says the fourth option situation, along with several other service time disputes, is in the hands of an arbitration panel, and a ruling is expected later this month. I have no idea whatsoever which way the panel will rule. No inside information and no hunch.

If the panel rules Abreu gets a fourth option, then he’ll go to Triple-A and the Yankees will have a second bullpen shuttle spot alongside veterans Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Darren O’Day, and Justin Wilson. A second shuttle spot would be good news for 40-man roster guys Brooks Kriske, Mike King, and Nick Nelson in particular.

I think Abreu is destined for the bullpen long-term -- his body hasn’t held up under a starter’s workload and his control issues aren’t gonna play as a starter -- but sending him to Triple-A as a starter is the way to go. Let him rack up innings early in the year, then move him to the bullpen at midseason and see whether he can help the MLB team. That’s the perfect world plan.

If the panel rules Abreu does not have a fourth option, then the Yankees and Abreu are right back where we’ve assumed they’ve been all along. Unless he gets creamed in Spring Training, I think the Yankees would carry Abreu on their Opening Day roster and give him an extended look rather than make a permanent decision based on a few Grapefruit League innings.

For now, we wait until the panel makes their ruling. A fourth option would be very good for the Yankees and their roster flexibility, and I think it would be best for Abreu’s development, though his wallet would take a hit. The big leagues pay a lot better than Triple-A. Abreu’s hoping he’s out of options for that reason. We’ll see which way this goes.

3. The alternate site returns. In news that qualifies as unsurprising, the Triple-A season has been pushed back one month, and the MLB season will begin with the alternate site model. MLB has not announced anything yet because they’re in no rush to do anything these days, but several Triple-A teams have announced their new schedules*, so yeah, it’s happening.

* By announce a new schedule, I mean they announced the first few weeks of games are going away. They’re not drawing up a new schedule. They’re just going to pick up the current schedule at a later date.

The Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders announced the season will now begin May 4th rather than April 6th. J.J. Cooper says the Triple-A season will still end on Sept. 16th, so the season will be 120 games rather than 142 games. Additional games could be tacked on at the end of the season, though Cooper says no plans have been finalized yet.

A few things about this. One, it’s a smart move. Delaying the season gives everyone (fans, staff, players, etc.) more time to get vaccinated and allows more time for the infection rate, which has been trending down the last few weeks, to drop even more. Bottom line, waiting the extra month makes it safer for everyone and increases the chances of having an uninterrupted season.

Two, it sounds like travel was a driving force in this decision. Triple-A teams travel on chartered buses but fly commercial*, and MLB’s health and safety protocols essentially prohibit contact with the general population. Calling up a player who spent a few weeks on commercial flights and plopping him in an MLB clubhouse kinda defeats the purpose of the protocols, you know?

* Thanks to the league realignments, Double-A and Single-A teams will travel almost exclusively by bus now, so potential exposure to COVID-19 through travel isn’t as much of a concern at the lower levels. Triple-A travel is the potential weak spot.

Also, keeping reserve players in one place rather than shuttling them around to different cities makes it easier to test them and adhere to safety protocols. This is 100% about making sure the MLB season is played, not making sure the Triple-A season is played. MLB doesn’t want any outbreaks caused by players who were lax with the protocols in Triple-A.

Three, does the alternate site make it more likely veteran players like Jay Bruce and Robinson Chirinos stick around if they don’t make the Opening Day roster? They would jump at an MLB opportunity, that’s a given, but going to the alternate site and staying in one place is preferable to riding buses in a normal Triple-A season, no? Maybe they hang around an extra few weeks.

Four, the RailRiders have already announced Scranton will be the alternate site -- some teams may not be able to use last year’s site again (the Padres used the University of San Diego, for example) -- and there’s still no word on how many players teams will be able to stash there. Last year teams had a 60-man player pool and a 28-man MLB roster, leaving 32 alternate site roster spots.

Jeff Passan reports teams are expected to carry about two dozen players at the alternate site, though that’s not yet official. Fewer than last year, which makes sense. Last year the alternate site had to cover the entire 60-game season. This year it should only last a month. Also, MLB has a better idea of how to handle the pandemic, and in theory teams won't need to have as many extra bodies available.

Let’s assume 24 players at the alternate site. The Yankees have 74 players in Spring Training and 26 will break camp with the MLB roster, leaving 48 alternate site candidates. One of those 48 is Luis Severino, who will stay in Tampa as he completes his Tommy John surgery rehab. Officially, he will be assigned to the alternate site, though the rules say rehabbing players do not count toward the roster total. He’ll be in Scranton in spirit while rehabbing in Tampa.

Double-A and Single-A Spring Training will begin right after MLB and Triple-A camp ends, so if you want a prospect to work with coaches, you don’t have to send him to the alternate site this year. In fact, you’re probably better off leaving him in Spring Training. That way he can work with coaches and play in actual games. Spring Training games, yeah, but games against other teams nonetheless.

Looking over the 74 players the Yankees have in Spring Training, I count nine who are obvious candidates to remain in Tampa and report to Double-A/Single-A camp rather than go to the alternate site:

• Catchers: Josh Breaux, Anthony Seigler, Austin Wells
• Infielders: Ezequiel Duran, Oswald Peraza
• Outfielders: Michael Beltre, Thomas Milone
• Pitchers: Yoendrys Gomez, Glenn Otto

That leaves 65 players for the MLB roster and alternate site, and 64 once we remove Severino. Here are those 64 players. The players shaded in yellow are the players I consider locks for the Opening Day roster, making everyone else an alternate site candidate:

Last season the Yankees went heavy on MLB depth options at the alternate site. Some teams sent top prospects to the alternate site regardless of age, but not the Yankees. They prioritized players who could help them win should they be called upon. It’s safe to assume that will again be the case this year, especially with Double-A/Single-A camp set to open soon.

Once the process of whittling the Spring Training roster down to the alternate site roster begins, I’ll be curious to see how the Yankees handle Florial and the 40-man roster pitching prospects (Gil, Medina, Vizcaino). On one hand, they’re on the 40-man and can easily be called up at a moment’s notice (only alternate site players can be called up in April). They spent last year at the alternate site. What’s another month?

On the other hand, Double-A/Single-A camp sounds appealing, no? Those guys would get to play games against other teams rather than intrasquad games*. After last year, it would be nice to get them into live games. It appears the Yankees have enough non-roster outfield and pitching options to send Florial, Vizcaino, and the Luises to the alternate site.

* Lindsey Adler (subs. req’d) reports MLB will allow alternate site teams to play games against each other, but they must be within driving distance. The Phillies will use their Triple-A park in Lehigh Valley as their alternate site again and that’s about a 75-mile trip one way from Scranton. Definitely doable. I wonder how many games they would play each week, if any?

Opening Day is four weeks away and some of the alternate site roster questions will answer themselves between now and then. Non-roster veterans with six years of service time (Bruce, Chacin, Chirinos, Dietrich, Warren) can opt into free agency if they’re not on the Opening Day roster, players will get hurt, so on and so forth. These things tend to sort themselves out.

For now, the Triple-A season has been delayed and the alternate site will return in April, and it’s the sensible thing to do. Who the Yankees send to the alternate site and who they keep in Tampa for Double-A/Single-A camp is something we can worry about once we get closer to Opening Day, and we see who’s healthy and we get a better sense of who will make the team.

4. Yankees expected to sign Arias. The 2021 international signing period opened in January and the Yankees have not yet announced any signings (Hans Montero, Fidel Montero, etc.). That should happen soon and reports indicate the signings happened as expected.

Reports regarding the 2022 international signing period are already making the rounds. Earlier this week Ben Badler (subs. req’d) previewed the top 20 prospects for next year’s signing period and he says the Yankees are expected to sign Dominican shortstop Roderick Arias, the No. 2 prospect. From Badler:

He's a switch-hitter whose swing is quick, compact and adjustable, with the ability to recognize spin well for his age and good performances against live pitching. He makes hard contact for his age, with more power now from the right side, and a chance to grow into above-average power once he fills out his lean, athletic frame. He's also an above-average runner with the athleticism, hands and footwork to handle shortstop, along with his best tool, a plus-plus arm.

Badler says Arias is expected to receive a bonus in the $4M range and it’s important to note his top 20 list is ranked in order of expected bonus, not talent, though bonus is a pretty good proxy for talent. The best prospects typically get the most money. Two years ago Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel called Arias the consensus top prospect in the 2021 signing class.

As is often the case with international prospects, the Yankees have been connected to Arias for quite a while now. Since at least Dec. 2019. There were rumblings Arias was going to sign with the Astros initially, though apparently that is no longer the case. Maybe the deal fell apart amid the sign-stealing investigation and the Yankees swooped in? Dunno.

Anyway, two things about this. One, I’d bet the farm on the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement including an international draft -- MLB does nothing by accident and shifting the signing period into a single calendar year was a precursor to an international draft -- so next year’s signing period figures to be the Yankees’ last opportunity to sign any player.

Arias is not a Jasson Dominguez caliber prospect (few are) but by all accounts he’s very good and the Yankees will sign him. Once the international draft is put in place, this type of prospect will be off the board long before the Yankees pick. Next year figures to be their last chance (for a while, anyway) to land this good an international prospect and they’re taking advantage.

Two, the March agreement stipulates the 2022 bonus pools will be the same as the 2021 bonus pools, so the Yankees will have $5,232,700 to spend next signing period. The Yankees did not sign a qualified free agent this offseason (re-signing DJ LeMahieu doesn’t count), so they didn’t forfeit any bonus pool money. It’ll be a $5,232,700 bonus pool next year.

Furthermore, the March agreement again prohibits bonus pool space trades next year, so the Yankees will be unable to add spending money. It’s a $5,232,700 bonus pool and not a penny more. Badler says Arias will receive $4M or so, leaving the Yankees with about $1.2M to spend on other players ($10,000 bonuses and less don’t count against the bonus pool).

Two years ago the Yankees gave nearly their entire bonus pool to Dominguez. This year they spread the money around a bit with the two Monteros. And there’s no right way to do this. Giving the money to one great player or multiple good players are both viable strategies. All you can do is read the market, line the players up on your board, and sign as many as you can.

The Yankees originally signed 15 of my top 30 prospects as international free agents and seven of the 15 signed for $300,000 or less. They tend to do very well with small bonus players, so having only $1.2M or so to spend on non-Ariases isn’t automatically bad news. For now, the Yankees are linked to a top prospect in what figures to be the final year of true international free agency.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Corey Kluber made his Grapefruit League debut in a non-televised game Wednesday night and it went about as well as anyone could’ve hoped (six up, six down, three strikeouts against a Blue Jays lineup thin on regulars). Statcast had his fastball in the 90-92 mph range (90.0-91.8 mph to be exact), which is down a tick from last spring but not alarmingly so, and hitters missed with four of their eight swings. For a guy who threw one inning last year, that’ll work just fine for the first spring game. “Physically, I feel like I’m in a good spot. I don’t think that I feel like I’m out there with any thoughts of the injuries or anything I’ve dealt with in the past. In my mind, I’m in a good spot, trying to prepare for the season the best I can,” Kluber told Bryan Hoch … Evan Drellich (subs. req’d) reports the universal DH and expanded postseason are “dead issues” with no recent talks between MLB and the MLBPA. Later in the story Drellich notes MLB would receive a $100M credit from ESPN with an expanded postseason this year (MLB didn’t play enough games to satisfy their contract with ESPN last year), which leads me to believe this is not a dead issue. Is MLB really going to stop trying to get an expanded postseason when there’s $100M on the line? No, no they will not. Opening Day is four weeks away. Plenty of time for this dead issue to roar back to life … MLB will hold its first annual Lou Gehrig Day on June 2nd this year, the league announced. Uniformed personnel will wear a “4-ALS” patch on their jerseys, and MLB will use the day to raise money and awareness for the fight against ALS (Lou Gehrig’s disease). Good news and a wonderful cause. The Yankees will host the Rays at Yankee Stadium that day … And finally, Ken Davidoff reports the Yankees were among the teams to attend Yoenis Cespedes’ showcase earlier this week. The Yankees always go to these things, so don’t mistake their attendance for legitimate interest. Plus it’s hard to see how Cespedes fits, right? The last thing the Yankees need is another right-handed DH. Cespedes, 35, missed most of 2018 and all of 2019 with heel and ankle injuries, then went 5-for-31 (.161) with 15 strikeouts before opting out last year. If he’ll take a minor league contract, sure, sign him. I don’t see this going anywhere though. Decent chance Cespedes has already played his final MLB game.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Jonathan asks: Going into 2019, you (rightly) wanted the Yankees to go get Manny Machado.  They opted to instead go with Gio Urshela (yes, I know about Andujar). Forget the money for this exercise (like the Yankees should), and just focus on the players, 3rd baseman v. 3rd baseman. They're effectively the same age, too. The only part of the contracts that matters is Machado's term - 10 years. Come 2029, ignoring the money, will we say that Machado or Urshela was the better player starting in 2019?

I wanted Bryce Harper over Machado, though I would’ve been happy with either. Anyway, Urshela has been a better player than Machado the last two years. He’s been the better hitter, and they’re close in WAR because the defensive stats don’t love Gio for whatever reason, plus he played fewer games (groin strain in 2019, elbow bone spur in 2020). The 2019-20 numbers:

• Machado: .269/.344/.494 (119 wRC+) and +5.7 WAR in 216 games
• Urshela: .310/.358/.523 (132 wRC+) and +6.0 WAR in 175 games

Machado is about nine months younger than Urshela and his track record as an elite player is much, much longer. I fully buy into Urshela’s breakout though. He made tangible changes to his swing two (really three) years ago and the contact quality (exit velocity, barrel rate, etc.) support the numbers he’s put up. Gio’s legit.

Would I take Urshela’s next eight years over Machado’s next eight years though? Eh, I have a hard time signing up for that. I’ll say Machado will be the better player from 2019-28. I don’t have a stat-based argument to support my position. I’m deferring to Machado’s track record and the fact players who were as good as he was at such a young age (three +6 WAR seasons by age 23!) tend to have very long, very productive careers.

As good as Urshela is -- and he’s very good right now -- he could just be another Matt Carpenter right? A late bloomer who has five really good years, and that’s it. And if that’s the case, Urshela is already two years into his five-year window. Gio’s awesome and I’m happy the Yankees have him, but I feel more comfortable expecting Machado to keep this up than I do Urshela.

(Brian Cashman has admitted the Yankees didn’t see this coming with Urshela, undercutting any “the Yankees didn’t sign Machado because they knew they had Urshela” arguments we may hear. Also, weren't the Yankees supposed to extend their core with the money they didn’t give Machado or Harper? We’re still waiting on that.)

Michael asks: I know teams are understandably concerned about workloads for starters coming off the abbreviated 2020 season, but is there any reason to think Gerrit Cole can't and shouldn't deliver approximately 200 innings in 2021? If anything, shouldn't his 92 innings pitched in 2020 perhaps be viewed positively as a bit of a rest? He went from 208 innings in 2015, to 116 in 2016, and then back to 203 in 2017. Does this make sense, and is there any historical data supporting this type or workload swing?

It does make sense and I think pitchers like Cole (200-inning workhorses the years leading up to 2020) will be mostly fine. The Yankees still owe this guy nearly $300M, so they’re going to keep an eye on his mechanics and stuff and monitor red flags, but I think he’ll be fine. And yeah, the time off could be a good thing. It’s less wear and tear and more time to rest and recover.

I have three thoughts about this. One, I think teams are mostly worried about young pitchers. Deivi Garcia, for example, has gone from 60 to 74 to 111.1 to 34.1 innings the last four years. Can he safely throw, say, 130 innings this year? That would be a career high and a big jump over last year (we have no idea how many innings he threw at the alternate site). I understand being concerned about young pitchers. Their normal workload progressions were interrupted.

Two, last season was weird and pitchers ramped up twice. First in Spring Training and again in Summer Camp. This spring is essentially their third “Spring Training” in the last 12 months and that’s unusual. Elbow injuries spike in Spring Training because some guys do too much too soon, and we saw an injury spike in Summer Camp. No one wants an even worse spike now.

And three, this is uncharted territory. One pitcher going from 200 innings one year to 90 innings the next and back to 200 the year after happens fairly often, but now an entire league of pitchers is doing that, and the volume is overwhelming. Even in 1994, 44 pitchers threw 150 innings prior to the work stoppage. Getting back to 200 innings or so in 1995 wasn’t a huge jump.

Usually when a pitcher goes from 200 innings one year to 90 innings the next, it’s because he gets hurt. In this case, Cole (and most others) was perfectly healthy, and that puts me a little more at ease with this season. I’m more worried about the young guys like Garcia, and also someone like Corey Kluber, who got hurt right after Summer Camp.

Anthony asks: On Gary Sanchez, leaving his offensive saga aside, we've at least been able to take comfort in his elite arm.  I've always felt, however, that Gary's arm showed a noticeable decline from super-elite to just great following his 2017 grade 1 biceps strain. Do any metrics back that up?

Sanchez’s caught stealing rate has gone from 38% in 2017 to 30% in 2018 to 23% in 2019 to 28% in 2020 (the MLB average hovers around 27% each year). Gary had those throwing issues early in 2019 (seven throwing errors in his first 13 games), but he eventually ironed them out, and had a 28% caught stealing rate the final five months of the season.

There’s more to life than caught stealing rate. Statcast records catcher arm strength and pop times. There’s no data for 2020, unfortunately, so here are Sanchez’s 2016-19 numbers and his MLB ranks:

• 2016: 86.3 mph average throw (5th) and 1.90-second pop time to second (1st)
• 2017: 85.1 mph (4th) and 1.93 seconds (3rd)
• 2018: 85.8 mph (4th) and 1.94 seconds (5th)
• 2019: 84.6 mph (6th) and 1.93 seconds (5th)
  (MLB averages: 81.8 mph and 2.01 seconds)

Since arriving in the big leagues for good, Sanchez has been among the best throwing catchers in the game based on his arm strength and pop time to second base. The arm talent is still there. The league average-ish caught stealing rate has to do with his 2019 accuracy issues, and also because the Yankees have had several pitchers who’ve stunk at holding runners (looking at you, Adam Ottavino).

Here are the stolen base attempt rates against Sanchez (stolen base attempts per stolen base opportunity, in which a stolen base opportunity is defined as a runner at first or second with the next base unoccupied, the MLB average is 4.8%):

• 2016: 7.5%
• 2017: 4.9%
• 2018: 4.3%
• 2019: 4.1%
• 2020: 3.8%

Opponents are attempting fewer stolen bases against Sanchez with each passing season. Even with that league average-ish caught stealing rate, Gary's arm garners respect and opposing teams are testing him less and less with each passing year.

It’s too bad we don’t have 2020 Statcast catcher data because I’d like to see whether the one-knee catching stance impacted Sanchez’s throwing, for better or worse. Throwing with one knee on the ground is not the most natural thing in the world. If nothing else, it’s a new catching technique and presumably required something of an adjustment period.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)