February 11th, 2021: New Rules, Not Top 30 Prospects, Mailbag

We’re still waiting for the Yankees to do a few things (announce their non-roster invitees, maybe re-sign Brett Gardner, etc.) and all that should happen soon seeing how pitchers and catchers report in six days. Anyway, my annual Top 30 Prospects List will be published tomorrow, so here is Friday’s regularly scheduled post a day early.

1. Rules for 2021. Earlier this week MLB and the MLBPA agreed to health and safety protocols for the 2021 season. The two sides built on what worked last year, and also took bits and pieces from the other pro sports leagues. As always, it’s all subject to change and the protocols can be adjusted as necessary throughout the season.

The COVID-19 protocols are uninteresting to me as an outsider. They’re obviously important and you’re welcome to be interested in them, but I don’t care much about the particulars. The players will again be tested every other day, masks must be worn at the team’s facility, so on and so forth. There are two notable changes from last year:

• Players can be disciplined (fined and even suspended without pay) for violating protocol.
• Similar to the NFL and NBA, players and personnel will wear tracking devices during all non-game team functions (workouts, travel, etc.) to assist with contact tracing.

I’m fine with disciplining players who violate protocol. We’re 11 months into the pandemic. If it hasn’t registered with you yet that this is very serious, you should have to wear a little dunce cap in addition to a fine or a suspension. MLB and the MLBPA “strongly encourage” players to get vaccinated once eligible, but it is not mandatory.

Anyway, here is MLB’s press release on the new health and safety protocols. Let’s break down the rule changes and on-field stuff.

On-field rules

• Doubleheaders will be two seven-inning games.
• The extra-inning tiebreaker rule will be used.
• No universal DH and a standard 10-team postseason.
• If deemed necessary, postseason games will be played at neutral sites.
• Players will have access to in-game video again.

Most of this is as expected. We’re still in a pandemic and there are going to be postponements, potentially a lot of them, so seven-inning doubleheaders are a must. Ditto the extra-innings rule. MLB can’t run these guys into the ground, and it’s smart to not spend more time than necessary at the ballpark during a pandemic. I’m fine with this for 2021.

“I don’t mind either rule. Besides, what are you gonna do?” Dusty Baker told Ron Blum. Yep, pretty much.

No universal DH is dumb as hell. Andy Martino says MLB views the universal DH as an economic issue, not a health and safety issue, so it’s not in this year’s rules. But wasn’t it a health and safety issue last year? It’s bad enough pitchers have to get built back up after the shortened season. Now they have to hit after not hitting for 18 months? So very dumb. (The Yankees aren't scheduled to visit a National League park until June.)

MLB and the MLBPA agreed to the expanded postseason at the 11th hour last year and I guess the same could happen again this year. The MLBPA seems pretty dug in on this though, and it’s too late for the universal DH to really help free agents, so I don’t think we’re getting an expanded postseason. Long live the Wild Card Game (as long as the Yankees never have to play in it again).

Access to in-game video is a big deal. Last year players could not watch video during games (they couldn’t review their last at-bat, etc.), partly because of the COVID-19 protocols and also because MLB cracked down on video access after the sign-stealing scandals. Some players, including Javy Baez and J.D. Martinez, complained about the lack of in-game video.

Rather than retreat to the video room to watch in-game video, this year players will use MLB issued tablets that “have access to in-game video in a format that cannot be used to steal the catcher’s signs,” according to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d). Apparently MLB will pixelate or black out the catcher’s signs before players can access the video. Makes sense. Players will appreciate this.

Roster limits

• 26-man rosters from April through August, then 28-man rosters in September (teams still get an extra player for doubleheaders).
• The 13-pitcher and 13-position player split does not apply. Teams can carry as many pitchers as they want all season.
• Teams can again bring a five-man taxi squad on the road. One of the five players must be a catcher.
• Players can be temporarily added to the 40-man and active rosters during COVID-19 outbreaks, and be removed without the usual process.
• Triple-A teams get a 28-man roster.

I really think teams should be given a 28-man (or 30-man!) roster early in the season as pitchers get built back up, but it’s not happening. I reckon we’re going to see a lot of three-man benches and nine-man bullpens in April. Because there’s no limit on pitchers, the Yankees could more easily swing a six-man rotation, if they want. It’s worth considering.

That fourth bullet point is interesting. Last year the Marlins lost 18 players to a COVID-19 outbreak simultaneously and had to jump through serious 40-man roster hoops to field a team. Now MLB is allowing a temporary 40-man expansion. For example, the Yankees could call up Jasson Dominguez until their sick players return, then send him down and take him off the 40-man without exposing him to waivers or burning a minor league option. Because this is tied to an outbreak, I don’t think teams will be able to exploit the rule, but we’ll see.

Minor league rosters are usually 25 players, not 26, so Triple-A teams will have three extra players this season. Seeing how the MLB taxi squad is five players, I bet teams are going to use the phantom injured list a ton in Triple-A, and MLB will look the other way. The phantom injured list is a fairly common practice in normal times and those players will be around the team and available at a moment’s notice, but won’t be on the active roster.

We’re still waiting for the Yankees (and most other teams) to announce their non-roster invitees -- they have to be submitted to the league by 4pm ET tomorrow, though they won’t necessarily be announced to the public then -- and the health and safety plan limits teams to 75 players and 75 staff members in Spring Training. Here’s my non-roster preview.

(75 players allowed in camp minus 26 MLB players minus 28 Triple-A players minus the five-man taxi squad equals 16 players on the Triple-A phantom injured list? Dunno.)

Spring Training

• Spring Training games can be shortened to five innings (Feb. 27th to March 13th) or seven innings (all spring). The two teams must agree to the length of game beforehand.
• The defensive manager can end an inning before three outs are recorded as long as the pitcher has thrown at least 20 pitches in the inning.
• Substitution rules during Spring Training games will be relaxed, allowing players to re-enter games.

The new Grapefruit League schedule has not yet been released but Florida teams are expected to stay on their respective coasts and play only clubs nearby, so expect the Yankees to play the Phillies, Blue Jays, and Tigers a ton this spring. Moreso than usual. I guess the regional play plan means the day game/night game thing I mentioned last week isn’t happening.

Necessity is the mother of invention and MLB stumbled into a bunch of good ideas, didn’t they? I see no reason these Spring Training rule changes shouldn’t be made permanent, including regional play. Four-hour bus trips don’t help anyone. As long as players get their work in, who cares if they only play five innings or a pitcher only gets two outs in an inning? No need to overthink this or protect the sanctity of Spring Training games. Good rule changes. Keep ‘em forever.

2. 2021 Not Top 30 Prospects. My annual Top 30 Prospects List will run tomorrow, and in keeping with tradition, it’s time to reveal my annual Not Top 30 Prospects List. To be clear, these are not prospects 31-35. They are five prospects outside this year’s Top 30 List who could make next year’s Top 30 List with a strong season and positive development.

One of last year’s Not Top 30 Prospects made it into this year’s Top 30, though another might have had he not been traded. In my defense, there was no minor league season last year, which is kind of a big deal. This was an unusual year to rank prospects. Not hard, necessarily, just unusual. Anyway, here are this year’s Not Top 30 Prospects, listed alphabetically.

RHP Nelson Alvarez

Date of Birth: June 11th, 1998 (age 22)
Acquired: 2019 13th round, 405th overall ($125,000 bonus)
Projected 2021 Level: Low-A and High-A

The Yankees have a thing for unheralded college relievers and Alvarez is their latest find. The 6-foot-4, 220-pounder struck out 25 batters in 22 innings with South Florida in 2019, but he also walked 12 and allowed 22 runs. Nevertheless, the Yankees grabbed him in the 13th round and signed him to a max slot $125,000 bonus.

Alvarez sat mid-90s in college and the Yankees had him touching 100 mph in rookie ball after signing, and there are days his slider is a wipeout pitch. His control comes and goes and he doesn’t have a third pitch, plus there’s effort in his delivery, so Alvarez is a reliever all the way. There’s a chance at a high-leverage role here with a more consistent slider. Here’s video. I think Alvarez will start 2021 with Low-A Tampa, but an assignment to High-A Hudson Valley wouldn’t be crazy.

3B Enger Castellano

Date of Birth: Dec. 2nd, 2002 (age 18)
Acquired: Signed Sept. 2019 out of Dominican Republic ($377,500 bonus)
Projected 2021 Level: Extended Spring Training and Rookie

The Yankees had a $5,398,300 bonus pool for the 2019-20 international signing period and they gave $5.1M to Jasson Dominguez. They traded for additional bonus pool space and gave most of that to Castellano, a righty hitter who stands 6-foot-0 and 190 lbs. Like Dominguez, Castellano is still waiting to play his first professional game because of the pandemic (I believe he participated in Dominican Instructional League last fall).

Castellano is a bat-first prospect with a ferocious Hanley Ramirez-esque swing and reports of big exit velocities. He has a knack for getting the fat part of the bat on the ball, and he’s shown the ability to make adjustments as an amateur. Castellano has drawn a lot of comparisons to Miguel Andujar for the way he marries an aggressive approach with limited swing-and-miss to produce extra-base hits. Here’s video.

Defensively, Castellano is said to have the arm for the third base, but maybe not the quick twitch reflexes. I imagine the Yankees will stick with Castellano at the hot corner for the foreseeable future, and if it doesn’t work, they’ll probably try the outfield before relegating him to first base. Extended Spring Training and rookie ball is in the cards in 2021, and it’s possible that means the Dominican Summer League rather than the Gulf Coast League.

RHP Yoljeldriz Diaz

Date of Birth: July 14, 2001 (age 19)
Acquired: Signed Dec. 2018 out of Venezuela (bonus unknown)
Projected 2021 Level: Extended Spring Training and Rookie

The quintessential lottery ticket pitching prospect. Diaz is listed at 5-foot-11 and 165 lbs., and he’s an exceptional athlete with a clean delivery. Unlike most lottery ticket arms, Diaz doesn’t throw all that hard, sitting in the 88-91 mph range most days, though he’s still so young that adding velocity as he matures is not out of the question.

I have Diaz here because he’s a secondary pitch marvel. His curveball already looks like an out-pitch, and both his slider and changeup are promising. The delivery and athleticism suggest he’ll have good control down the line too. Diaz has similarities to Yoendrys Gomez, who also showed advanced secondaries and meh velocity early in his career, and gradually improved his fastball as he added strength under pro instruction.

Diaz does not have Gomez’s projectable frame (Yoendrys is listed at 6-foot-3 and 175 lbs.) and that’s a not insignificant difference, but the athleticism and ability to manipulate the baseball are there. I’m probably Not Top 30-ing Diaz a year early, but I’d rather be a year early than a year late. Diaz is ticketed for Extended Spring Training and rookie ball this summer.

RHP Denny Larrondo

Date of Birth: May 31st, 2002 (age 18)
Acquired: Signed July 2018 out of Cuba ($550,000 bonus)
Projected 2021 Level: Extended Spring Training and Rookie

Larrondo was one of two Yankees prospects to test positive for COVID-19 last spring, prompting the quarantine of everyone at the minor league complex. By all accounts he has fully recovered and was able to have a normal summer. Normal by “train at home and rely on video calls with coaches because there’s a pandemic” standards, that is.

At 6-foot-2 and 180 lbs., Larrondo has lots of room to add muscle to his frame, and he’s one of the best athletes in the system (he played shortstop and center field with the junior national team in Cuba). His fastball was mostly 89-91 mph with a few 93s last spring, and he stands out most because he gets crazy high spin rates on the heater and his curveball. Here’s video.

Despite the athleticism, Larrondo’s delivery is a bit all over the place, and his control comes and goes because of it (he walked 21 in 32.1 rookie ball innings in 2019). He is so fluid on the mound that there’s reason to believe he’ll iron out his mechanics, and the changeup is good enough to project him as a starter. Larrondo is a work in progress but has a strong foundation. He is basically a high school senior and will return to rookie ball in 2021.

OF Jake Sanford

Date of Birth: Oct. 24th, 1997 (age 23)
Acquired: 2019 third round, 105th overall ($597,500 bonus)
Projected 2021 Level: Low-A and High-A

An unusual path to pro ball Sanford has taken. He grew up in the baseball coldbed of Nova Scotia -- colleges recruited him as a volleyball player, not a baseball player -- and went to Mid-Plains Community College in Nebraska. He mashed for two years, transferred to Western Kentucky, and mashed again. Mashed as in .398/.483/.805 with 22 home runs in 56 games en route to the first Triple Crown in Conference USA history his draft year.

The Yankees grabbed Sanford with their third round pick two years ago because he has huge left-handed power. He’s strong and he generates tremendous leverage with his 6-foot-2, 215 lb. frame. He knows a ball from a strike, but his swing can get long, and Sanford will foul himself up at the plate when he sells out for power. At his best, he’ll let the ball travel deep in the zone and drive it the other way. Here’s video.

Sanford is more than a brute masher. He’s a good runner and quick enough to man center field now. Chances are he’ll move to left field down the line because his arm is just okay. The Yankees think Sanford has the hand-eye coordination to cut down on his strikeouts (32.5% with Staten Island in 2019) and get into his power more consistently. He’ll go to Low-A Tampa this year and could get a midseason promotion to High-A Hudson Valley.

3. Mets cut Sanchez. The Red Sox traded Andrew Benintendi to the Royals last night and completed their outfield tear down. Benintendi, who is still only 26, was hurt and awful in 2020, and he’s been going backwards since a +5 WAR season in 2018. The Red Sox cut bait and traded him for Franchy Cordero and four prospects (three are players to be named later).

The Mets were a minor participant in the three-team trade, netting outfield prospect Khalil Lee from Kansas City. To make room for Lee on the 40-man roster, the Mets designated catcher Ali Sanchez for assignment, and the Yankees should be after him given their catching depth chart. It looks like this:

1. Gary Sanchez
2. Kyle Higashioka
3. Rob Brantly
4. Kellin Deglan
5. I guess Donny Sands?

(Ali) Sanchez turned 24 last month and he made his MLB debut last season, going 1-for-9 with a walk and three strikeouts. In 2019, he hit .278/.337/.337 (99 wRC+) in 294 Double-A plate appearances, then struggled in a Triple-A cameo (40 wRC+ in 65 plate appearances). He’s never been much of a hitter (career .259/.317/.331 and 90 wRC+ in the minors) but he can defend.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Sanchez as the No. 27 prospect in the Mets system last year (he is not in this year’s top 30). Here’s a snippet of their 2020 scouting report:

Sanchez impacts games while behind the plate, in both obvious and subtle ways. His plus arm plays up a grade because of his quick transfer and throwing accuracy … Sanchez shines as a game-caller and pitch-framer, helping to win strikes for his pitchers. At the plate, Sanchez is a bottom-of-the-order hitter who uses all fields with an inside-out swing. He has 20-grade power but has shown greater skill at hitting for average and drawing walks in recent seasons.

You want your catchers to be really good at something, either hitting or defense, and Sanchez is a good defender. He also has two minor league options remaining, so he’d fill an organizational need as the up-and-down third catcher. The role Higashioka filled from 2017-19. Most third catchers aren’t going to hit. Sanchez will at least defend.

You never quite know with these things, but I think it’s unlikely Sanchez lasts all the way to the Yankees on waivers. They would probably have to make a trade for him, and these “trade for a player who was designated for assignment” trades never cost much. The Yankees gave up a 27-year-old Double-A reliever (James Reeves) to get Greg Allen, for example.

The Yankees would have to clear a 40-man roster for Sanchez, but so be it. I think he would be more useful than Allen or Mike Ford. The trade wouldn’t so much be about the fringe prospect the Yankees send the Mets, it’s more about who Sanchez replaces on the 40-man, and I would happily upgrade the No. 3 catcher at the cost of the No. 3 first baseman or No. 5 outfielder.

A just turned 24-year-old catcher with good defensive chops and minor league options is worth acquiring at all times, really, and especially now given the Yankees’ catching situation. I know the Yankees and Mets don’t get together for trades often, but this isn’t exactly a blockbuster, and Sanchez addresses an obvious organizational deficiency. He’s not a star but he fills a need.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees officially announced the Darren O’Day signing yesterday. Ben Heller was designated for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot. No outcome would surprise me with Heller. Trade, waiver claim, clear waivers and remain in the organization, whatever. You never know with those up-and-down hard-throwing relievers. Because he’s cheap and has a minor league option remaining, I think Heller’s a goner. Either he’ll get claimed on waivers or the Yankees will trade him beforehand … New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announced yesterday that sports venues can reopen at 10% capacity beginning Feb. 23rd. Fans must produce a negative PCR test in the 72 hours prior to the event, and there will be mask and social distancing requirements. The Yankees released a statement calling the announcement “an encouraging first step,” and added they will “work diligently and in lock-step with the governor to ensure all precautions and procedures are being followed as we lead up to the 2021 baseball season.” 10% capacity at Yankee Stadium is about 5,400 fans. It’s looking more and more likely there will be (some) fans in the Bronx come Opening Day. Maybe we can get 24/7 subway service back now.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

John asks: I'm wondering if I'm being overly optimistic about Kluber and his health. He threw for teams in mid January and received offers immediately. He was signed within 2 days of them seeing him throw and had multiple reported offers. Other players like Paxton (threw for teams in mid-December) and Arrieta (threw for teams in early Jan) have their markets moving much slower. Is it wrong to take this as Kluber showing something to impress teams and make them move quicker than those others?

For what it’s worth, I heard James Paxton’s market was ice cold a few weeks ago. That was after his showcase and maybe things have changed since then, but that’s what I heard. Paxton threw for teams in mid-December and Jon Morosi said he hit 94 mph, which is better velocity than last year but not as good as 2019. I’d be happy with that in the middle of the offseason.

Anyway, John has a good point. Corey Kluber threw for teams and there was a big rush to sign him. Paxton and Jake Arrieta also threw for teams this offseason, and both are still unsigned with a seemingly limited market. That could be telling. Of course, Troy Tulowitzki impressed everyone with his workout two years ago, and we know how that turned out.

I’m (somewhat) optimistic about Kluber’s health because last year’s injury, while severe, was a muscle tear. He didn’t tear his rotator cuff or a tendon or a ligament or something. Muscle tears usually don’t become chronic the way structural damage can. Predicting health is damn near impossible, so, if anything, I’d take all the interest to mean Kluber’s stuff looked good during his showcase.

Adam asks: If hypothetically in August the Yankees have a working 5 man rotation, given that Severino has a) had great success out of the bullpen before and b) will be on a workload limit, that a 2 inning burst middle relief / fireman role might be perfect for Luis this year, and also be a good way to get him on track to start again next year?

It should absolutely be on the table. This is a question we won’t be able to answer until Luis Severino completes his rehab and is actually ready to rejoin the Yankees, and even then there will be a few factors to consider. One, will he need a workload plan so soon after Tommy John surgery? Something like the Joba Rules to protect him?

Two, how confident are the Yankees in Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon? They are injury risks and I’d hate to relegate Severino to the bullpen in July, then have Kluber or Taillon break down in August or September, and be a starter short. It’s much easier to go from starter to reliever than the other way around, and bouncing Severino between roles so soon after elbow reconstruction seems like a bad idea.

And three, if Severino is throwing the ball like he did from 2017-18, don’t you want him in the rotation? That guy is your second best starter. Maybe the best plan is bringing Severino back as a starter, letting him rack up innings while easing up on everyone else, then putting him in the postseason bullpen once you’re absolutely sure it’s the best option.

There’s a case to be made that (potentially) using Severino twice in a best-of-five series and three times in a best-of-seven as a reliever is more impactful than starting once in a best-of-five or twice in a best-of-seven. He may throw fewer total innings in the series as a reliever, but if he’s pitching in high-leverage situations, it just might be worth it.

First things first: Severino has to complete his rehab. All indications are it is going well -- “Midseason is kind of an easy place to say, but whether that’s June, July, August, who knows? Once he really ramps up on the mound and starts building some intensity, we’ll have a (better read),” pitching coach Matt Blake recently told Sweeny Murti about Severino’s projected return date -- but he still has a ways to go. Everything should be on the table when Severino returns.

Paul asks: What’s your all decade Yankee rotation of the 2010s? I think mine would have to be CC, Hiroki, Tanaka, Severino....Brandon McCarthy? I guess Hughes, Nova, Paxton could be considered but it’s shocking how bad the Yankees have been at getting reliable starters this past decade. Here’s to hoping Taillon and Kluber buck that trend eh?

CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, Hiroki Kuroda, and Luis Severino are very clearly the top four, I think. Andy Pettitte, Ivan Nova, and Phil Hughes immediately jumped to mind as candidates for the fifth spot, as did Michael Pineda. James Paxton essentially had one year with the Yankees. One really good year, but one year nonetheless. McCarthy was a Yankee for like five minutes.

Here’s the WAR leaderboard for Yankees starters in the 2010s:

1. CC Sabathia: +23.4 WAR
2. Masahiro Tanaka: +17.6 WAR
3. Luis Severino: +11.7 WAR
4. Hiroki Kuroda: +11.4 WAR
5. Ivan Nova: +7.4 WAR
6. Andy Pettitte: +7.0 WAR
7. Michael Pineda: +6.3 WAR
8. J.A. Happ: +4.5 WAR
9. Nathan Eovaldi: +3.6 WAR
10. Jordan Montgomery: +3.4 WAR

For comparison’s sake, No. 5 on the Dodgers list is Rich Hill (+6.2 WAR) and No. 10 is Ted Lilly (+3.7 WAR). For the Rays, No. 5 is Jake Odorizzi (+7.9 WAR) and No. 10 is Tyler Glasnow (+3.9 WAR). Those are two pretty great pitching organizations, yet their fifth best starters are in the +7 WAR range, and their tenth best starters are in the +4 WAR range. That’s the way it be.

Anyway, Hughes is way down at +2.5 WAR, alongside Freddy Garcia (+2.8 WAR) and Gerrit Cole (+2.2 WAR). I’m surprised he’s that low. Nova put up that +7.4 WAR in 729 innings. Pettitte was at +7.0 WAR in 389.2 innings. I’m giving the No. 5 spot to Pettitte since he provided similar value as Nova, but in way fewer innings.

For the record, there are four relievers in the top 10 in WAR among Yankees pitchers in the 2010s: David Robertson (+12.2 WAR), Dellin Betances (+11.5 WAR), Mariano Rivera (+8.1 WAR), and Adam Warren (+7.4 WAR). No other team had four +7 WAR relievers in the 2010s.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)