February 9th, 2021: Bauer, Hot Stove, 2021 Draft, Spring Training

Programming note: Spring Training opens next week (more on that below), so my annual Top 30 Prospects List will be posted this Friday. Friday’s regularly scheduled post will run Thursday and will include the annual Not Top 30 Prospects. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Dodgers sign Bauer. The final hours of Trevor Bauer’s free agency were even dumber than I expected. There were false reports of deadlines and agreements, and Bauer sold autographed Mets hats on his website right up until his contract with the Dodgers was reported. It’s a three-year deal with two opt-outs. He’ll make $40M in 2021, $45M in 2022, and $17M in 2023.

Bauer is the second reigning Cy Young winner to join a defending World Series champion. The first? Roger Clemens and the 1999 Yankees, of course. The Dodgers are one of the few teams that could legitimately say they didn’t need Bauer (the Dodgers, the Padres, and that’s it, right?), yet they signed him anyway. This is their current rotation depth chart:

1. LHP Clayton Kershaw
2. RHP Walker Buehler
3. RHP Trevor Bauer
4. LHP David Price
5. LHP Julio Urias
6. RHP Dustin May
7. RHP Tony Gonsolin

Gonsolin finished fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting last year and ZiPS projects May at +2.7 WAR, and neither has a spot in the rotation right now. They’ll be needed, of course. Injuries happen, Gonsolin and May figure to have workload limits, Price didn’t pitch last year, and they’ll probably take it easy on everyone after the short season. That is enviable depth.

Signing Bauer is not so much about the regular season, though I’m sure San Diego will give the Dodgers a run for their money in the NL West. The Dodgers signed him to better their chances in the postseason, and become the first repeat champions since the 1998-2000 Yankees. They blew right by the $210M luxury tax threshold to make it happen. Here are the highest projected 2021 luxury tax payrolls at the moment (per Spotrac):

1. Dodgers: $239.2M
2. Red Sox: $202.4M
3. Angels: $200.6M
4. Yankees: $200.4M
5. Phillies: $197.3M

Assuming the Dodgers re-sign Justin Turner, they’ll exceed the $250M third luxury tax threshold and be in the highest penalty tier. What a concept, huh? Maximizing your market advantages in an effort to capitalize on a championship window is not a thing that should feel foreign, and yet it does. The Yankees have done the minimum this offseason (re-sign DJ LeMahieu and bring in two starters), and doing any more than that just isn’t a thing that will happen.

“I feel confident that we will again have the highest payroll (in baseball),” Brian Cashman told Bryan Hoch seven weeks ago with confidence matched only by the team’s belief they will keep their injury prone players healthy because This Year Will Be Different.

The Dodgers are what the Yankees should be. The Yankees should be more than the Dodgers, really, because they play in an even larger market and are the sport’s most popular franchise -- I can drop you anywhere in the world you’ll see Yankees hats -- but the Yankees are closer to the Cubs right now than the Dodgers. They’ve cut payroll in the middle of a championship window (again) and are using the pandemic as cover. The Angels, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, and other teams found a way to raise payroll this offseason. Not happening in the Bronx though.

Last year Mookie Betts became available and the Dodgers pounced even though they had the reigning NL MVP at the same position because you get elite players when you can. This year Francisco Lindor became available and the Yankees didn’t bother to make a counteroffer. The Dodgers took on a big money short-term deal to get the reigning Cy Young winner because he made them better, even though it wasn’t clear he was needed. The Yankees had no interest in the reigning Cy Young runner-up (Yu Darvish) on a big money short-term deal even though it was clear he was needed. Similar franchises operating on different wavelengths.

That the Dodgers signed Bauer and went way over the luxury tax threshold on the same day Masahiro Tanaka reported to Spring Training with the Rakuten Golden Eagles drives home the absurdity of it all. Los Angeles won the World Series last year and could’ve easily said you know what? We need to cut back a bit. They earned a grace period. Instead, they’re going for it. The Yankees lost in the ALCS in 2019, lost in the ALDS in 2020, and decided now was the time to do less, not the time to do more to reverse that trend.

The Twins finally got around to doing some things the last week or so, but, by and large, the only American League contenders to get better this offseason are the Blue Jays and the White Sox. The Rays and Athletics cut back, and the Astros haven’t done much. I think the Yankees are the best team in the league and have enough depth to at least challenge for a wildcard spot should injuries strike again. Their path through the American League is much less treacherous than the Dodgers’ path through the National League.

And maybe that’s an argument for not doing more this offseason. The competition isn’t fierce, so why go all out? That seems to be what the Yankees are thinking, though the argument against that is the Yankees could increase their margin for error and make life easier in the regular season while giving themselves a better chance to knock off the Dodgers or Padres or Braves in the World Series. The Dodgers were almost certainly the best team in baseball before signing Bauer, and it didn’t stop them from signing Bauer. I envy that team-building approach.

Spring Training is a week away and the Yankees still have room for a reliable innings-eater to hedge against the injury risk in their rotation, they absolutely need more catching depth, and they could use another high-leverage reliever too. They never replaced Tommy Kahnle! A reliever who can get big outs in the postseason, not a Jonathan Holder type who falls into high leverage spots in May and June, should’ve been on the offseason shopping list. Re-signing LeMahieu was a must, and I like the Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon pickups, but that’s it? Really, that’s it? Don’t ever feel guilty about thinking the Yankees should do more.

To be clear, this has nothing to do with Bauer himself. I find him insufferable and didn’t want him on the Yankees. I don’t care how well he throws a baseball. This is more about the willingness to keep improving. The Yankees, a team that has consistently been a piece or two short the last four postseasons, keep holding themselves back and not giving themselves the absolute best chance to win. At a time when other teams have shown cost cutting is not necessary amid the pandemic, the Yankees have chosen to adhere to an artificial salary cap. That is their prerogative and they are free to do what they want, but I don’t have to like it.

There are no do-overs here. Don’t win the World Series this year and it’s one less opportunity to win a title with this core. The Dodgers recognized this and signed Bauer, because Corey Seager is coming up on free agency, Betts is in his prime, and Kershaw only has so many productive years remaining. Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton are in their primes, LeMahieu and Aroldis Chapman have whatever is left of their primes, and Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez are two years away from free agency. If the Yankees are unwilling to go above and beyond right now to get this group a championship, I’m not sure when they will.

2. Hot stove happenings. It has been 13 days since the Yankees agreed to sign Darren O’Day, and we’re still waiting for them to make it official. They’ll have to make a 40-man roster move to accommodate him, so they could be working on a trade to open a spot, like they did prior to making the DJ LeMahieu and Corey Kluber signings official. Anyway, here are a few hot stove nuggets that caught my eye.

Choo working out at first base

Free agent and personal fave Shin-Soo Choo has been working out at first base this offseason, reports Robert Murray. Choo, 38, has split his time between the outfield and DH the last three years (156 outfield starts and 159 DH starts since 2018), and first base is a completely new position. He’s never done it at any level. Not even in the minors.

Choo hit .236/.323/.400 (97 wRC+) last season, including .243/.348/.432 (112 wRC+) against righties, and it was the worst offensive season of his career. His average exit velocity (90 mph) was strong though, and Choo is one year removed from a .265/.371/.455 (112 wRC+) overall batting line and a .280/.393/.494 (127 wRC+) line against righties.

You don’t want Choo to face lefties (73 wRC+ since 2018) and you definitely don’t want him in the outfield (-24 DRS since 2018), but as a spare lefty bat who can maybe fake first base? Sure. Also, Choo is a Grade-A clubhouse guy who looks out for young players. For example, he donated $1,000 to every Rangers minor leaguer (191 players) during the shutdown last year. From the Associated Press:

When he left home for the United States to pursue his baseball dreams, Choo said, he had nothing. There were some difficult times in the minor leagues, including the 2005 season when there sometimes was no money to purchase diapers for his newborn son.

"Think about 20 years ago, first time I came from Korea, I've got nothing," he said. "Now a lot of things I have is because of baseball. ... So I want to pay back to other people, especially this hard situation in the whole world. I can still help other people, that's a good thing.”

The four-man bench will include a backup catcher (Kyle Higashioka), a backup infielder (Tyler Wade), and a backup outfielder (Greg Allen, Mike Tauchman, maybe Brett Gardner). In theory, that leaves the Yankees a spot to play with. Kinda depends what they want to do with Allen and Tauchman, who are out of options and can’t go to Triple-A, and what they do with Gardner.

In 2011, the Yankees brought Eric Chavez to camp as a non-roster player and let him compete for a bench spot, which he ultimately won. I would be 100% cool with giving Choo a non-roster invite, and I have grand visions of him turning into 1996-98 Tim Raines redux. That veteran guy who wants a ring and accepts a lesser role, and is an on-base platoon monster. Would be cool.

I imagine Choo wants a guaranteed big league job, but I’m not sure he’ll get it at his age and with his defensive limitations. He can still hit righties though, he’d fill a lefty void in the lineup, and he’s a good guy to have in the clubhouse and around young players. There are worse veterans to bring to camp on minor league deals.

(The Yankees tried to sign Choo once upon a time. Maybe the interest lingers?)

Orioles sign Felix

My “Felix Hernandez as a non-roster invitee” idea is dead. He signed a minor league contract with the Orioles last week. It’s worth $1M at the MLB level, and I assume he’s a lock for their rotation seeing how ZiPS projects two (2) pitchers in the organization to exceed +1 WAR in 2021, and one of the two has six career starts above High-A. Yeesh.

I floated Hernandez as a non-roster candidate last month, before the Corey Kluber signing and the Jameson Taillon trade, when the rotation was much more wide open. I figured the Yankees could offer him an opportunity to win a rotation spot and an opportunity win in general, which is not something many teams could offer. With O’s, Hernandez gets the former but not the latter.

Felix on a minor league deal would’ve been a no-risk depth addition. See what he looks like in Spring Training and go from there. That kinda thing. Kluber and Taillon give the Yankees five big league starters, plus two top prospects (Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt) and two veteran non-roster guys (Jhoulys Chacin and Asher Wojciechowski) in reserve. It’ll have to do.

A’s trade for Andrus, need a DH

Over the weekend the Athletics and Rangers swung a rare intradivision trade featuring recognizable names. The A’s picked up Elvis Andrus to replace Marcus Semien at short, and the Rangers took on Khris Davis to unload a chunk of Andrus’ deal. There were also some prospects and cash involved, but Andrus-for-Davis is the important stuff.

I’m mentioning this because the trade opens up the A’s DH spot. They have internal DH options the same way every team has internal DH options (Seth Brown, Sheldon Neuse, etc.), though I imagine they’ll look into lower cost free agents or the trade market for another bat (Choo seems right up their alley, no?). I don’t think Oakland is done.

The Yankees have a few spare DH types and I feel obligated to mention the trade potential with the Athletics. Miguel Andujar is the obvious name, but Mike Ford is an A’s type too, and heck, they might want Greg Allen or Mike Tauchman so they can rotate their outfielders through the DH spot and not sacrifice defense. There could be a match here.

I’m not sure what the A’s could offer the Yankees in return. None of those players is going to net you a reliable MLB pitcher (Oakland doesn’t have many of those to spare anyway), so we’re looking at prospects. Seeing how the Yankees need a 40-man spot for O’Day, that works. One of those spare position players for a non-40-man prospect seems doable.

I don’t expect the Yankees to make a DH trade with the Athletics, though I think a trade is more likely now that the A’s need a DH than it was when the A’s needed a shortstop. Maybe the Yankees are waiting until Spring Training to finalize the O’Day deal so they can put Luis Severino on the 60-day injured list and open a 40-man spot that way. Given what we saw a few weeks ago, a minor trade to open a spot is very possible, and the A’s are a potential partner.

3. 2021 draft order. The 2021 draft order is set now that Trevor Bauer has signed and all the qualified free agents are accounted for. Bauer and George Springer signed with new teams, DJ LeMahieu and J.T. Realmuto re-signed with their old teams, and Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman accepted the qualifying offer. Done and done.

As per last year’s March agreement, the 2021 draft will be at least 20 rounds (MLB can make it longer but lol at that happening) and the slot values will be the same as 2020, which were the same as 2019. Here’s the draft order (the Astros forfeited their first and second round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal) and here are the Yankees’ picks and slot values:

20. $3,242,900 (their highest pick since taking Clarke Schmidt with the No. 16 pick in 2017)
55. $1,307,000
92. $637,600
122. $469,000
153. $346,800
183. $266,000
213. $208,200
243. $169,500
273. $152,600
303. $144,100

The Yankees don’t have any compensation picks this year, so those are rounds 1-10. It adds up to a $6,943,700 bonus pool. Add in the extra 5% teams can exceed their pool before forfeiting future picks, and the Yankees can max out at $7,290,885 this draft. (They’ve spent the extra 5%, which is taxed at 75%, every year since the bonus pool system was put in place.)

Picks after the tenth round usually come with a $125,000 slot, and anything over that counts against the bonus pool. That also applied to undrafted free agents. I’m not sure whether that will be the case this year. Last year undrafted free agent bonuses were capped at $20,000. Is MLB really gonna cap bonuses in rounds 11-20 at $20,000? Wouldn’t surprise me. We’ll see.

This is as good a time as any for my annual “I hope the Yankees trade for a competitive balance round pick this year” spiel. The Yankees have traded for a competitive balance pick exactly once since they became a thing in 2013. They received the No. 38 pick in the 2019 draft in the Sonny Gray trade with the Reds, and used it to take lefty T.J. Sikkema.

The Brewers have a recent history of trading away their competitive balance picks and are as good a team to target as any. Here are their recent competitive balance pick trades:

• Dec. 2019: Traded the No. 64 pick in the 2020 draft and a non-top-30 team prospect (Adam Hill) to the Mariners for Omar Narvaez (three years of control remaining).
• Dec. 2018: Traded the No. 41 pick in the 2019 draft to the Rangers for Alex Claudio (three years of control remaining).

I assume Milwaukee has been willing to trade their competitive balance picks because they’ve gone to the postseason the last few years and this is their window with prime Christian Yelich and Josh Hader. They’ve traded those picks for immediate MLB help. Narvaez was their starting catcher last year and Claudio has been a workhorse middle reliever the last two years.

The Brewers hold the No. 33 pick this year ($2,202,200 bonus slot) and they need help at third base, on the bench, and in the bullpen. I wonder if they’d take Albert Abreu for the No. 33 pick? If they want more of a sure thing, maybe Luis Cessa? Is three years of Cessa for the No. 33 pick that much different than three years of Claudio for the No. 41 pick? Might as well ask, right?

Anyway, that’s my annual “the Yankees should trade for a competitive balance pick” talk. History suggests they won’t do it, which is boring. One of the ways to alleviate a 40-man roster crunch is trading your fringe 40-man guys for non-40-man prospects in the low minors, which is essentially what a competitive balance pick is. One day the Yankees will trade for a pick again. One day.

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Jerry Royster. By request, this week’s random Yankee is a man who spent about two months of his 42 years in professional baseball in pinstripes. Here's the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

In 1970, Royster was a rare undrafted free agent signing out of high school. He signed with the Dodgers, made his MLB debut as a 20-year-old in 1973, then was part of the six-player trade that sent Dusty Baker from the Braves to the Dodgers in Nov. 1975. Royster spent nine years with Atlanta as a light-hitting infielder, then moved on to the Padres for two seasons.

The Yankees had interest in Royster, then 34, as a free agent during the 1986-87 offseason. Infielders Dale Berra and Mike Fischlin combined to hit .218/.288/.304 in 1986 and didn’t give the Yankees a reason to keep them around. Royster signed with the White Sox and was very good. So good he took over as their starting third baseman at midseason.

The White Sox were not good, however, and they crashed at midseason. An ugly 24-41 stretch dropped them to 45-67 and 15.5 games back in the old AL West on Aug. 12th. Royster was on a one-year contract and playing well, making him an obvious trade chip. With his batting line sitting at .240/.324/.448 on Aug. 26th, he was sent to the Yankees in a four-player trade.

• To Yankees: IF Jerry Royster and minor league IF Mike Soper
• To White Sox: Minor leaguers LHP Ken Patterson and RHP Jeff Pries

“The White Sox did me a favor. They weren't going anywhere, and I was given a chance to play with a team that's in contention,” Royster told Ira Berkow after the trade. “I had heard rumors that I might be coming here as long ago as two months back. But nothing happened, until now.”

The Yankees sent Dennis Rasmussen to the Reds for Bill Gullickson on the same day, so they overhauled their roster a bit. They were 71-55 on the day of the trade and 4.5 games behind the Tigers in the AL East. Gullickson gave them a veteran innings eater and Royster gave them a third base depth option behind Mike Pagliarulo.

(Pries and Soper never reached the big leagues. Patterson debuted with the White Sox in 1988 and had a 3.88 ERA in 317.2 career innings, almost all in relief. He spent parts of four seasons with the White Sox before moving on to the Cubs and Angels.)

Royster went 0-for-5 in his first game as a Yankee, then had a little 4-for-9 hot streak spanning five team games. The Yankees had a 5-10 stretch in the middle of September and fell out of the race, and Royster had his best stretch as a Yankee in a bunch of meaningless games at the end of the season. He went 7-for-11 and drove in three runs in his final four games of the year.

Royster’s most memorable moment as a Yankee came on Sept. 28th. The Red Sox beat up on Gullickson and led 7-0 through four innings, and took a 7-3 lead into the ninth. The Yankees' six-run rally started: Bobby Meachem double, Rickey Henderson walk, Willie Randolph walk, Don Mattingly sac fly, Dave Winfield double. The Yankees cut the deficit to 7-5 and had the tying run at second.

Pagliarulo hit 32 home runs that season, but Red Sox manager John McNamara brought in Joe Sambito to get the left-on-left matchup, so Yankees manager Lou Piniella pinch-hit the righty swinging Royster. Royster delivered the game-tying two-run single, then Mike Easler followed with a two-run walk-off home run. The 7-3 ninth inning deficit became a 9-7 win.

“This would've been a big one,” Mattingly told Murray Chass when asked whether the game was memorable even though both teams were out of the race. ”It's hard to compare, though. Everybody reacts differently when something is on the line. You never know what would happen. It's a great game and a great win, but you can't compare. There are two categories.”

The late season hot streak gave Royster a .357/.413/.405 batting line in 18 games and 47 plate appearances as a Yankee, and a .265/.342/.439 batting line in 225 plate appearances on the season overall. It was one of the best seasons of his career, and it was enough to convince the Yankees to exercise the $275,000 option in his contract.

Although his option was picked up, Royster never made it to Opening Day with the Yankees in 1988. They added Rafael Santana over the winter and stuck with Meachem and Randy Velarde as their backup infielders. The Yankees released Royster (and Rick Cerone) the day before Opening Day.

“I've got a real good-looking bubble gum card,” Royster told Michael Martinez after declining to go to Triple-A and being cut loose. “I've been to Los Angeles, Atlanta, Chicago, and New York. Columbus would have looked kind of funny on it. I'm not a minor leaguer.”

Royster signed with the Braves a few weeks later and hit .176/.222/.206 in 111 plate appearances. It was the final season of his playing career. He got into minor league coaching with the Dodgers and was the first third base coach in Rockies history. Royster had a stint as interim manager with the Brewers in 2002, and he managed the Lotte Giants in Korea from 2007-10. Royster was Bobby Valentine’s third base coach with the 2012 Red Sox. At age 60, he retired after being let go after that season in Boston.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees announced a few slight changes to their Spring Training schedule over the weekend. Pitchers and catchers will now report Feb. 17th rather than Feb. 15th, and position players will report Feb. 22nd rather than Feb. 21st. I believe they pushed the reporting dates back for intake testing. Everyone has to go through the COVID-19 protocols before they can be allowed into the complex and whatnot. No biggie (well, intake testing is a biggie, but moving the reporting dates back isn’t) … Ken Rosenthal reports MLB is rearranging the Grapefruit League schedule to limit travel. Teams will stay on their respective coasts, which is kinda what I suggested last week, so expect the Yankees to play a ton of games against the nearby Phillies, Blue Jays, and Tigers. Teams on Florida’s Gulf Coast, like the Yankees, will play 28 exhibition games rather than the 31 they are currently scheduled. The Yankees are scheduled to play their first Grapefruit League game on Saturday, Feb. 27th. Two weeks and four days from today … And finally, Rosenthal and Eno Sarris (subs. req’d) report MLB issued a memo last week informing teams it is planning small changes to the baseball to reduce the home run rate this year. There were 1.28 homers per team per game in 2020, second most ever behind 2019 (1.39). I don’t have much to say about this other than a) MLB really should’ve told teams about this at the start of the offseason, not a week before Spring Training, and b) the fact no one can predict how the baseball, the single most important piece of equipment in the sport, will play from one year to the next is the most ridiculous thing about this game. I guess a consistent baseball is a bridge too far.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)