July 23rd, 2020: Opening Day Roster, Rotation, Bold Predictions

Hooray baseball. (Photo via Presswire)

Weather permitting, the Yankees will open the 60-game 2020 season later tonight against the defending World Series champion Nationals in Washington. The forecast calls for rain but has improved over the last 24 hours or so. Fingers crossed. I'm ready for meaningful baseball. "It’s a band of merry men that are wired the same. They love to compete," Brian Cashman said about his team yesterday. Here are a few quick pre-Opening Day thoughts as the NHL names its Seattle expansion franchise after Gary Sanchez.

1. Opening Day roster set. The Yankees officially set their 30-man Opening Day roster earlier this afternoon. I got 28 of 30 spots right in my last roster projection but don't mistake this for gloating. Most roster spots were no-brainers and the last few were easy to figure out toward the end of Summer Camp. Anyway, here is the Opening Day roster, which Brian Cashman called "the best 30-man Opening Day roster we've ever had."

That bench, my goodness. Few things about the roster. One, LeMahieu is active despite getting only a handful of at-bats during Summer Camp. If he says he's ready and the Yankees believe he's ready, then who am I to argue? Two, Montgomery being on the taxi squad -- technically he is on the alternate site roster, but he is with the Yankees in Washington -- is a paper move to buy a roster spot for a few days. Aaron Boone confirmed Montgomery will start Wednesday's game (more on the rotation in a minute) and the 10-day rule doesn't apply to players sent down before Opening Day this year, so the Yankees can recall him at any time. This isn't a service time thing -- Montgomery would need to spend just about the entire season (59 of 67 days to be exact) at the alternate site to delay his free agency, and besides, he'll receive credit for the service time anyway because he won't spend 10 days in the minors (spend less than 10 days on an optional assignment and it's like you were never sent down as far as service time goes) -- and, as an arbitration-eligible player, his prorated $298,149 salary is locked in. He won't make a lower salary in the minors. No harm, no foul. Smart way to buy an extra roster spot for a few days. Three, I'm not sure what's up with Otero. He was placed on the restricted list rather than sent to the alternate site. Otero is 35, he didn't pitch well in Summer Camp (I think?), and he missed a bunch of time with shoulder trouble last year. Maybe he decided to go home and be with his family rather than spend two months in Scranton after being told he didn't make the Opening Day roster? Wouldn't blame him. Either way, we can't count on him as a depth option going forward. Four, I'm surprised the Yankees are going with three catchers, even temporarily. I guess they don't want Gary Sanchez catching too much early on (so much for 45-50 starts) and/or they're planning to pinch-run for Sanchez and pinch-hit for Kyle Higashioka a bunch. Otherwise I'm not sure I get it. The roster shrinks to 28 players in two weeks and 26 players two weeks after that, and I have to think Iannetta will be among the first cuts. Carrying three catchers all year, even during a 60-game season with a 26-man roster, is overkill. The Yankees have better options for that roster spot. Five, I figured the Yankees would take two middle innings lefties now that Britton is locked in at closer, but nope. Considering Kahnle will face any tough lefty in a big spot, it's not really a big deal, I just expected a second lefty. Avilan over Lyons, who was on the postseason roster last year, is not worth using brainpower to debate. It's fine. And six, the 40-man roster is now full. Cessa, Chapman, and Severino on the injured list opens spots for Avilan, Hale, and Iannetta. The Yankees will have clear 40-man spots when Cessa and Chapman return. Worry about that when the time comes. Overall though, a very strong roster (obviously) and I'm a bit surprised the Yankees went with only 13 pitchers for the time being. Then again, Montgomery and Tanaka will be added to the active roster soon, so I don't think the 17/13 position player/pitcher split will last long.

2. Latest on Tanaka and the rotation. Masahiro Tanaka's live batting practice session went well Tuesday -- he threw 20 pitches without an L-screen and said it was "back to business, back to normal" -- and the next step is 35-40 pitches to hitters at the alternate site Sunday. Not coincidentally, the Yankees will go with a bullpen game Sunday. Here is the early season rotation per Aaron Boone:

• Thursday, July 23th: Gerrit Cole at Nationals (Opening Day)
• Friday, July 24th: off-day (Jordan Montgomery simulated game)
• Saturday, July 25th: James Paxton at Nationals
• Sunday, July 26th: bullpen game at Nationals
• Monday, July 27th: J.A. Happ at Phillies
• Tuesday, July 28th: Cole at Phillies
• Wednesday, July 29th: Montgomery vs. Phillies (home opener)

When discussing the plan for Cole last week, Boone said "maybe we’re trying to push him a little bit" early on, so he'll start on normal rest next Tuesday rather than extra rest Wednesday. That allows him to face the Red Sox on Aug. 2nd rather than the Orioles on Aug. 3rd. Not sure the Red Sox will be a factor this year, but they'll be more of a factor than the Orioles, so it's smart to line Cole up against Boston. Montgomery gets to start the home opener for the second time in three years (he started the 2018 home opener too). Now, if tonight's game gets rained out and they have to play tomorrow instead, Cole couldn't start Tuesday. He'd be on short rest and I don't see that happening no matter how hard the Yankees want to push him. The Yankees will rearrange the rotation as necessary should tonight get rained out. If that happens, so be it. Can't control the weather. Anyway, Tanaka will pitch in Scranton on Sunday while the big league team goes with a bullpen game that day. Not hard to connect the dots and figure out what happens five days after that. Tanaka will presumably be on a limited pitch count early on but that's fine. Season is short and weird. Might as well stretch him out in the big leagues while the roster is expanded. No reason to waste though bullets in games that don't count. Boone mentioned Chad Green as a possible opener Sunday with Mike King and Jonathan Loaisiga as long men, but nothing is set in stone. They'll see how Thursday (or Friday) and Saturday go before finalizing plans for Sunday. 

3. Five bold predictions for 2020. The regular season has arrived and that means it's time for my annual bold predictions. I went 7-for-10 in 2017, which told me I wasn't bold enough. I went 0-for-5 in 2018 and again in 2019, so maybe I overcompensated and went too bold? I'd like to get at least one right this season. Anyway, here are my five bold Yankees predictions for the 2020 season (here are my 20 bold predictions for MLB).

Gleyber starts all 60 games

The American League adopted the 162-game schedule in 1961 and since then only four Yankees have started all 162 games in a single season: 

• 1973 Roy White (all in left field)
• 1986 Don Mattingly (159 at first base, two at third base, one at DH)
• 2004 Hideki Matsui (160 in left field and two in center field)
• 2005 Alex Rodriguez (161 at third base and one at DH)

Last year Marcus Semien was the only player in baseball to start all 162 games (he started all 162 at shortstop, which is crazy impressive). For this bold prediction to come true, two things must happen: Gleyber Torres must stay healthy and the Yankees must be willing to ease up on their obsessive rest schedule. Realistically, I don't expect the latter to happen, but if it ever were to happen, this would be the year. It's only a 60-game season and Torres is a strong young 23-year-old. Also, the drop off from Gleyber to his replacement (Thairo Estrada or Tyler Wade) is significant, and the abbreviated season means less time to create separation in the standings. The more Torres plays, the better the chances the Yankees win the AL East. It really is that simple. I don't expect Gleyber to play every inning of every game -- no Yankee has done that in the 162-game season era -- but start every game? Yeah, that should be doable in a 60-game season. The conditions are ripe and he's the perfect player to do it.

Andujar finishes third on the Yankees in outfield appearances

Before the shutdown I was planning to go with Miguel Andujar leading the Yankees in outfield appearances this year. I had a few reasons for that. One, he looked comfortable in left field in Spring Training (plus he rakes). Two, the Aarons (Hicks and Judge) were going to miss the start of the season with injuries. Three, the Yankees don't seem to want to play Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield often. Four, the Yankees definitely don't want to play Clint Frazier in the outfield often. Five, Brett Gardner turns 37 in August and is at risk of sudden age-related decline. And six, I'm not really a Mike Tauchman believer and picking between him and Miggy Missiles for one lineup spot is an easy choice. Andujar is too good to keep out of the lineup -- allow me to remind you he hit .297/.328/.527 (130 wRC+) with 27 homers and an American League rookie record tying 47 doubles in 2018 -- and, frankly, Andujar reclaiming the third base job from Gio Urshela is not bold enough. I think Urshela is legit (moreso than I do Tauchman, anyway) but it wouldn't be the most surprising thing in the world if he turns back into a pumpkin this year, and Andujar takes over as the everyday third baseman. The outfield though? That qualifies as bold. The Aarons are healthy and I expect them to lead the Yankees in outfield appearances this season. That means I have Andujar beating out primarily Gardner but also Frazier, Stanton, and Tauchman for third on the outfield games list. I'll say he play ... 43 games in the outfield. How's that? 

Sanchez is an average or better defender across the board

One of my favorite non-Yankees is Roberto Perez. The Indians backstop had a rocket ball-aided offensive breakout last year, hitting .239/.321/.452 (98 wRC+) with 24 home runs -- he was a career .205/.298/.340 (72 wRC+) hitter in nearly 1,000 plate appearances prior to last season -- but Perez is mostly known for his defense. He was second among all catchers with +25.7 fielding runs above average last year (Austin Hedges led with +28.2 FRAA). The components that make up FRAA say Perez was elite at everything:

• Framing: +15.5 runs (3rd in MLB)
• Blocking: +8.8 runs (1st in MLB)
• Throwing: +1.5 runs (3rd in MLB)

Top three in everything! No other catcher did that. J.T. Realmuto came closest. He was first in throwing, fourth in blocking, and eighth in framing. Hedges was first in framing by a mile (+26.0 runs) but outside the top 10 in blocking and throwing. Perez is so, so good behind the plate. I don't expect Gary Sanchez to do what Perez did last year but I do believe the new one-knee stance will help him be at least average across the board. Here are Gary's numbers last year:

• Framing: -5.1 runs
• Blocking: -0.8 runs
• Throwing: -0.2 runs

To be at least average across the board, Sanchez has to greatly improve his framing while maintaining (and slightly building upon) the gains he made blocking last year. The throwing is not really a concern. Some weirdly off-line throws early last year cost him. Sanchez rated well as a thrower from 2016-18. I'm not worried about his arm. This is my third bold prediction. The one-knee stance is a massive success and Sanchez rates as an average or better framer, blocker, and thrower in 2020. "I definitely feel the improvement. I want to say that I definitely have gotten better, especially with pitches low in the zone. At the same time, we still have a lot of work to be done ahead of us. But that's why we're here, to keep improving," Gary said last week.

Loaisiga becomes the next great Yankees reliever

This prediction format worked with Chad Green in 2017 and not so much with Luis Cessa in 2018. I'm going back to the well with Jonathan Loaisiga in 2020. Aaron Boone has already said he sees Loaisiga in a relief role this season -- "Initially in some kind of reliever role, but certainly a guy that's capable of giving us some length," he said last week -- and that's half the battle. He's in the role. Now he just needs to pitch well in that role, and I think he'll do it. Loaisiga's fastball has well-above-average velocity (96.8 mph) and spin (2,422 rpm) -- the league averages are 93.4 mph and 2,287 rpm -- and his secondary pitches miss bats:

• Breaking ball: 43.2% whiffs-per-swing (34.5% league average)
• Changeup: 46.8% whiffs-per-swing (31.5% league average)

Small samples, of course. Loaisiga only has 56.1 scattered big league innings to his credit but the early returns are promising. The stuff is really good and I attribute his walk problems (11.4%) to inexperience rather than career-long control issues (career 4.7% walks in the minors). Also, Loaisiga is a mature kid who's overcome a lot of adversity (i.e. injuries) to get to where he is now. That the Yankees skipped him over Triple-A and called him up in 2018 despite so little minor league experience (148.2 career innings!) tells us they believe he can handle failure. That'll serve him well in the bullpen. If you've been reading me long enough, you know I am fully aboard the "Loaisiga is Chad Green 2.0" train, and I am boldly predicting this is the year it happens.

Cole leads MLB in strikeouts

Like I said, I'd like to get at least one bold prediction right this year, and this one is by far the most likely to be correct. Gerrit Cole not only led baseball with 326 strikeouts last season, he a) had the most strikeouts since Randy Johnson struck out 334 batters in 2002, b) had the most strikeouts by a right-handed pitcher since Nolan Ryan struck out 341 in 1977, and c) set a new single-season strikeout rate record for a qualified starter (39.9%). Cole also set a new record with 11 straight double-digit strikeout games at one point last year. He is the game's preeminent strikeout pitcher right now, so picking him to lead baseball in strikeouts hardly qualifies as bold. HowEVA, only one Yankee has ever finished in sole possession of the MLB strikeout lead. The Yankees have been around basically forever and it's only happened once. Only seven Yankees have led the American League in strikeouts:

• 1932 Red Ruffing: 190 (Dizzy Dean led MLB with 191)
• 1933 Lefty Gomez: 163 (Dean led MLB with 199)
• 1934 Lefty Gomez: 158 (Dean led MLB with 195)
• 1937 Lefty Gomez: 194 (led MLB)
• 1951 Vic Raschi: 164 (tied for MLB lead with Don Newcombe and Warren Spahn)
• 1952 Allie Reynolds: 160 (Spahn led MLB with 183)
• 1964 Al Downing: 217 (Bob Veale led MLB with 250)

That's it. Only seven times in history has a Yankee led the American League in strikeouts and only once has a Yankee led baseball in strikeouts outright. Cole has as good a chance as anyone to do it this year, and I am kinda sorta boldly predicting he will. In the modern era, the best pitching season in franchise history is Ron Guidry's 1978. He finished with +9.6 WAR in 163 games (they had the tiebreaker game that year, which Guidry started), or +3.5 WAR per 60 games. Can Cole beat that this year? It'll be tough. As good as he is, he is joining a new team and working with new coaches and living in a new city and pitching in a new ballpark and playing in a new division and he has a newborn at home. Then there's *gestures at everything else going on in the world*. Cole having an adjustment period would not be the most surprising thing in the world. Given how quickly he seemed to settled in, I'm guessing the adjustment period will be minimal. He'll lead baseball in strikeouts and challenge Guidry for the best pitching season in franchise history on a prorated basis.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Gonna wrap up with a few general non-Yankees thoughts about the abbreviated 60-game season. One, and most importantly, I don't believe winning the World Series this season would be in any way a diminished accomplishment. That applies to every team, not only the Yankees. The postseason format is unchanged and teams can only play the schedule they're given, and the players are human beings. They have pandemic-related stress and anxiety like everyone else. If you want to know what a diminished World Series title looks like, there's the 2017 Astros and 2018 Red Sox. A team winning a championship in a season shortened because of a global pandemic ain't it. Two, I feel like a lot of people (mostly media but also some baseball folks) are really overthinking this "built well for a 60-game season" stuff. This is not a seven-game series where you can more easily leverage your strengths thanks to built-in off-days. 60 games in 67 days is still a lot of games. Not as many as usual, but it is a lot. The teams built best for a 60-game season are the teams built best for a 162-game season. Those are the teams with high-end talent and depth. Randomness will be a larger factor in a 60-game season but every roster in baseball was built for 162 games, and I don't think any are uniquely suited for a two-month season. The best teams will still be the best teams. Three, speaking of randomness, if we see a "surprise" team(s) make postseason this year, I strongly suspect it'll be a middle of the pack club like the Angels or Rangers rather than a bottom feeder making a true Cinderella run. I think it's far, far more likely a rebuilding team turns into a complete farce that brings competitive integrity into question than it is a rebuilding team makes a run to the postseason. What happens when Aug. 15th or Sept. 1st rolls around and the team is out of it, and their veterans with guaranteed contracts wonder why they're playing during a pandemic and not at home with their families? Imagine the Tigers without Miguel Cabrera or the Orioles without Alex Cobb. Veterans opting out during the season -- players can opt out at any time -- would make those already bad teams even worse. Could a team win single-digit games between a lack of talent and pandemic-induced apathy? Probably won't happen but I think it's more likely than a crazy Cinderella run to October. Four, after watching a bunch of exhibition games the last few days, I'm backing off my earlier prediction that offense will be down the first week or so of the regular season. Hitters look pretty caught up. I'm sure a handful are still behind, but most look ready. Also, it looks like we're getting the juiced ball this year. This is not a home run swing. The rocket ball is back. Long live the rocket ball. Fifth and finally, I weirdly hope George Springer opts out four days into the season as payback for the Astros manipulating his service time back in the day. He was six days short of free agency this past offseason, so if he plays three days this year, he'll get the enough prorated service time to hit free agency this winter. The Astros offered Springer a dirt cheap extension before he ever made his MLB debut, then, after he rejected it, they kept him in the minors long enough to delay his free agency. Bad faith move that will ultimately cost Springer tens of millions now that the sport's financials are in the tank. No one will question a player opting out during the pandemic and, barring a catastrophic injury, there is nothing Springer could do during a 60-game season to significantly help or hurt his free agent stock. Three days then bounce. Springer is the only Astros player I actually like and sticking it to Houston like that would be a power move. (James Paxton needs to play only eight days this year to reach six years of service time and lock in free agency. He says he has no plays to opt out though -- "No, I'm here to play," he said last week when asked about opting out -- and, unlike Springer, Paxton has something to prove this season following his back surgery.)

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)