April 7th, 2020: Arizona Plan, Prospects in 2020, Non-Roster Players, 2020 Draft

Fun fact: Gary Sanchez hit three home runs one year ago today. Here's the video. Hitting a zillion dingers against the Orioles is one of the many things I miss about baseball and there are days I feel like it will never return. I know it will eventually, but days feels like years, and it's hard not to be discouraged sometimes. Anyway, here are today's thoughts.

1. MLB's Arizona plan. Late last night it was reported MLB and the MLBPA are "increasingly focused" on a plan that would allow the season to begin next month in Arizona. It is in no way a coincidence this comes not even 48 hours after the various sports commissioners were urged to get their leagues up and running as soon as possible during a conference call with the White House. Here are the details of the plan via Ron Blum, Buster Olney, and Jeff Passan:

• Team personnel would be sequestered in hotels and travel to and from the ballpark only. 
• Games would be played with no fans at Chase Field and the 10 Spring Training ballparks in Phoenix.
• There would be regular doubleheaders to get in as many games as possible, with the possibility of seven-inning doubleheaders.
• To maintain social distance there could be an electronic strike zone, no mound visits, and players could sit six feet apart in the stands rather than in the dugout.
• Each team's party could be limited to 50 people (players, coaches, analysts, etc.).
• Widespread testing that produces results quickly would have to be available.

Not gonna lie, Tommy Kahnle heckling his teammates from the stands appeals to me. Let's make sure that happens whenever baseball returns. In all seriousness, there's a lot to unpack here. For starters, players would have to spend about five months in isolation and away from their families, and I assume that's a non-starter for most of the union. Maybe they could bring their families with them? Even then, what if they're expecting a child? What happens if a player's family member gets sick and they have to leave? Let's say MLB really does limit each team's party to 50 people. That's still 1,500 people you're trying to isolate. Then there are the umpires and the stadium support staff. Are the players going to cook for themselves? Clean up after themselves? No and no. There have to be chefs and clubhouse attendants and all sorts of support personnel in place. And there need to be broadcasters and camera people and all the folks who make television and radio broadcasts happen. Limiting each team's party to 50 people grossly underestimates how much manpower is necessary to run even a bare bones MLB operation. This could easily turn into a 2,500-person endeavor, maybe more, and I don't see how you can expect to perfectly isolate all of them (away from their families!) for such a long time. This is not just unreasonable, it's illogical. Also, are teams really going to play in open-air Spring Training stadiums in July and August in Phoenix? With regular doubleheaders too? Playing in that much heat day after day after day is dangerous. Beyond the logistical issues (impossibilities?), the last bullet point above might be the biggest dealbreaker. There is still not enough testing taking place around the country, and if this quick turnaround test becomes a reality within the next month or so, the general public must be the priority, not baseball players so baseball can happen. Passan says the Arizona plan has the "support of high-ranking federal public health officials," and that inspires zero confidence whatsoever given the government's response to the pandemic. Arizona enacted its say-at-home order only a week ago and COVID-19 is expected to peak in the state in a few weeks. Who knows if it'll even be safe to play there next month. South Korea has done a much better job containing the virus (despite higher population density) and the KBO has resumed spring workouts, but they're ready to shut down at a moment's notice if a player tests positive. The Arizona plan feels very fly-by-night, very "we'll figure it out as we go." As someone who not only dearly misses baseball, but also has a personal stake in the sport -- my full-time job (CBS) and side gig (the Patreon) are dependent on the game -- I hope baseball returns soon. Baseball in May would be wonderful. I'd love for it to happen. I just don't see how it does given the current situation and projections, and I see the Arizona plan is little more than wishcasting. I fear we're going to look back in a few months and say "lol remember when MLB wanted to put everyone in a bubble and play games in Arizona in May?"

2. The minors in 2020. We're all waiting to hear when the 2020 MLB season may begin, but we can't forget about the minor league season either. Not including the Dominican Summer League, there are 199 minor league affiliates, including 120 full season affiliates, and there is basically zero chance all 199 markets* will be cleared for baseball this year. How do you make minor league baseball equitable when, say, the California League gets the okay to play while the Florida State League has to stay shut down? When (if) the MLB season starts, teams will need a feeder system. At an absolute minimum they'll need a Triple-A taxi squad, meaning players who are ready to step in as injury replacements or random call-ups. Those players will have to stay sharp somewhere and it's unclear whether Triple-A baseball will return this summer. The solution may be holding Extended Spring Training all season. Keep the kids at the Spring Training complex in a state of quarantine (complex and home only), and have them go through workouts and intrasquad games. If conditions allow, they could go on the road to play nearby teams, similar to MLB's Arizona plan. It's not ideal, but it might be the best MLB can do this year given the massive scale of the minors, and even that plan has major issues. Getting to a point where the 30 MLB teams can play, even without fans, will take time and a lot of work. Now imagine doing it with more than six times as many teams to get the minors up and running. Feels impossible. There will be player development ramifications too. Young prospects, the guys most in need of reps to improve their game, are not getting those innings or at-bats. Estevan Florial has lost a bunch of development time to wrist injuries the last two years. The last thing he needs is to lose more at-bats this year. What happens to 20-year-old Deivi Garcia if he essentially skips a year of competitive game action and can't work on his command? Does a year away from games stunt Jasson Dominguez's development? It's an impossible to answer question and it'll be different for everyone. Some guys will pick up right where they left off and others will struggle with the layoff. A few months ago Travis Sawchik wrote an article arguing the minors may no longer be necessary given modern training and player development methods and I couldn't disagree more. There is no way to replicate live game action (i.e. develop instincts and quick decision-making) and the day after day grind of a long season on a backfield somewhere. Every team is dealing with the same circumstances and I thought it was interesting pitching coach Matt Blake told Lindsey Adler (subs. req'd) pitching coaches around the league have essentially come together for the greater good to develop plans to keep guys sharp and healthy during the shutdown. "Normally baseball can be secretive and protective at the Major League level, but I think there’s a sense of community amongst the group right now because we’re all in this together, and there’s really no playbook we can look at for this," Blake said. Maybe that will apply to minor league player development too? Farm directors could come together to figure out how to get guys the work they need and keep them on their development path despite no minor league season. I dunno. Should baseball return this season, MLB will have to maintain a feeder system, and with any luck it'll be standard Triple-A affiliates playing their games. I hope that is the case. If not, and if the rest of the minors can't play games because of the pandemic, it could derail an entire generation of prospects. "This can cripple the development a little bit, in that you want guys to get innings. You want guys to get at-bats. You want guys to go through full seasons, especially early on, understanding what it takes to live through a full season and compete for a full season. That’s going to be cut short. If guys have to miss some time and miss some innings and at-bats in 2020, we’ll roll with it and go from there. But from a player development standpoint, you want guys to rack up at-bats and want pitchers to have meaningful innings. Right now, they just can’t do that," Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told Jon Meoli last month.

* It's really fewer than 199 markets because there is some overlap (the Yankees have both their High-A and rookie Gulf Coast League affiliates in Tampa, for example), but not much fewer.

3. Prospects who could debut in 2020. At some point near the end of Spring Training, I was planning to look at prospects who could make their big league debut and help the Yankees this season. That feels like three years ago. I still think it's worth covering though, even if we don't know when exactly the season will begin. September call-ups have been eliminated -- teams are allowed one extra pitcher and one extra position player in September -- but the expectation is teams will be given a 29-man roster when baseball returns. The extra roster spots will be necessary with a condensed schedule and they'll inevitably lead to prospect debuts. Here are the prospects we could see in pinstripes for the first time this year, assuming the season starts at some point (preseason top 30 rank in parenthesis).

Likely to debut: RHP Albert Abreu (No. 7), RHP Deivi Garcia (No. 2), RHP Brooks Kriske (NR), RHP Nick Nelson (No. 15)

Kriske and Nelson are 40-man roster depth arms likely to ride the Scranton shuttle. They'll come up whenever the Yankees need a fresh arm. No real mystery there. Abreu is entering his final minor league option year and, as long as he doesn't completely implode, I think he'll get the call at some point, even if it's only to serve as an emergency long man. Abreu could be a real MFer in relief if the Yankees stick him in the bullpen full-time. Garcia is the best pitching prospect in the organization and the Yankees moved him to the bullpen late last season in preparation for a call-up that never came. That still tells us he's knocking on the door. The other guys figure to be up-and-down depth arms. Deivi has the best chance to carve out a more permanent role this year, either as a starter or as a reliever. Either way, we're going to see him whenever baseball returns. He'll be up at some point.

Good chance to debut: IF Kyle Holder (NR), RHP Clarke Schmidt (No. 3)

I thought there would be more names in this group! Holder is here because the Yankees a) like him enough to bring him to camp as a non-roster invitee the last two years, and b) are two injuries away from needing another middle infielder. Tyler Wade and Thairo Estrada are the only 40-man roster depth behind DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres. With the way the Yankees go through injuries, it feels like they'll lucky to get through a season with only two middle infield injuries (I'm kidding ... or am I?). As for Schmidt, he was awfully impressive in Spring Training and he may be ahead of Garcia on the rotation depth chart. It's not crazy to think Schmidt is more MLB ready than Deivi despite the lack of upper level experience. He will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season and I expect the Yankees to get a head start on their protection and call Schmidt up at some point. 

Unlikely to debut: OF Estevan Florial (No. 8), RHP Luis Gil (No. 6), 1B Chris Gittens (NR), RHP Luis Medina (No. 5), IF Hoy Jun Park (NR), RHP Miguel Yajure (No. 16)

Florial, Gil, and Medina are on the 40-man roster but are all lower level minor leaguers who are not ready to help at the MLB level. If push comes to shove and the Yankees are hit hard by injuries (again), I think they'd add other players to the 40-man roster rather than call these guys up. They'll stick to their development plan. Yajure spent less time at Double-A last season than I realized (15 innings including postseason) and as a 21-year-old kid with a little more than 200 innings under his belt since Tommy John surgery, the Yankees probably won't bring him up to the big leagues this year unless absolutely necessary. My guess is an extended stay in Double-A and late season cameo in Triple-A is the preferred plan for Yajure in 2020, though I will say I think he's the most likely player in this group to get a big league call-up this year. Park is behind Holder on the infield depth chart and goodness, if things get so bad that the Yankees have to consider calling him up at some point, they'd probably make a trade for infield help instead. Gittens was the Double-A Eastern League MVP last year but isn't much of a prospect. His absolute best case scenario is something like a poor man's Chris Carter, and the real Chris Carter had a hard time staying in the league despite averaging 32 homers per 150 games. Gittens plays a position of depth -- he's behind Luke Voit, Mike Ford, DJ LeMahieu, and Miguel Andujar at first base -- and I just don't see how he gets called up. There are too many first base (and DH) options ahead of him. Even if there are injuries, the Yankees would probably go outside the organization for help if they're that beat up.

4. Non-roster program and a potential work stoppage. Last week the MLBPA announced a program to help players with Major League service time who were in Spring Training as non-roster invitees (i.e. non-40-man roster players). During the shutdown 40-man roster players get a chunk of the $170M advance from MLB while non-40-man players get the $400 weekly allowance (through at least May 31st), equivalent to the minor league spring per diem. The new program covers players who were once dues-paying union members. They're not entitled to a piece of the $170M but they deserve more than the $400 per week as well. Here, via Joel Sherman, is the MLBPA's non-roster program breakdown and the relevant Yankees:

• 0-1 year of service time: $5,000 (Domingo Acevedo, Zack Granite)
• 1-2 years of service time: $7,500 (Rosell Herrera)
• 2-3 years of service time: $15,000 (David Hale, Tony Zych)
• 3-5 years of service time: $25,000 (Chad Bettis, Erik Kratz, Tyler Lyons, Josh Thole, Nick Tropeano)
• 6+ years of service time: $50,000 (Luis Avilan, Chris Iannetta, Dan Otero)

Acevedo has one day of service time -- he spent July 21st, 2018 in the big league bullpen as an emergency long man but did not pitch -- and that one day equals an extra $5,000 in his pocket. That's not a ton in the grand scheme of things, but when you're a small signing bonus guy like him ($7,500 in 2012) otherwise living on $400 a week, it makes a real difference. The program is voluntary and, from what I understand, the expectation is some wealthy non-roster veterans (Carlos Gonzalez, Felix Hernandez, etc.) will opt out to ensure there's enough to go around. The MLBPA's executive board approved the program unanimously -- Iannetta and James Paxton are on the eight-man executive subcommittee (so is former Yankee Andrew Miller) -- in a show of solidarity. "Everyone understands this is a fraternity. Everyone understands the strength of our union is the togetherness of players. It was important to take care of all of the players who have been a part of this union, who have fought and voted and done their due diligence in terms of understanding what this union is all about, where we came from, what we fought for, the meaning and the power of it," Iannetta told Ken Rosenthal (subs. req'd). Between the shutdown and everyone hating the Astros, players seem more united right now than at any point in the last I dunno, 10-15 years or so. For all intents and purposes, the shutdown is a trial run for a strike. The Collective Bargaining Agreement expires in Dec. 2021, and while MLB and the MLBPA quickly resolved many shutdown-related issues last month, I would not mistake that as a sign of labor peace. The union is still upset about free agency, even with the market bouncing back this winter, and with veterans not being treated as well as in the past. Everyone (MLB, the MLB, fans, etc.) is getting a look at what an indefinite work stoppage looks like right now. The owners are seeing the financial impact rather than projecting or speculating, and the players know what it's like not to get paid (or get paid a fraction of their contract). Does that make a work stoppage more or less likely? I think less likely, honestly, because no one is going to want to take a similar financial hit again in two years. There's also the public relations component. Right now, we're all in this together, trying to survive and contain the pandemic. During a work stoppage, it's us vs. them, and the public will take sides (I reckon most will believe the millionaire players, not the billionaire owners, are being greedy) and put pressure on the two sides to get something done. If nothing else though, both sides are seeing what life is like without baseball, and all the consequences that come with it. The union has come together to support their members, even former members no longer on the 40-man roster, and I think that bodes well to some degree heading into next year's collective bargaining.

5. 2020 draft prospect: Pete Crow-Armstrong. A little less than two weeks ago MLB and the MLBPA resolved several shutdown-related issues, including what to do with the annual amateur draft. The 2020 draft will be held no later than July 20th and MLB can shorten it to as few as five rounds. In that case, the Yankees would only have three picks after forfeiting their second and fifth round selections to sign Gerrit Cole. Amateur baseball has been shut down across the country -- R.J. Anderson reports MLB will allow scouts to make contact with players (and advisors) this week, which is important for gauging makeup and signability -- so teams will have to rely on video and past information. Warm weather schools managed to squeeze in a few weeks of games prior to the shutdown, but not much. What can you do? Nothing, really. Anyway, this is usually the time of year when I would ramp up draft coverage at RAB, and I figured it was time to profile potential draft targets here, starting today with Armstrong, a high school outfielder from Southern California. Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranks him as the 17th best prospect in the draft class while MLB.com has him 28th. The Yankees hold the 28th overall pick. Here's a snippet of MLB's free scouting report (here's video):

Crow-Armstrong stood out early on in his high school career because of his ability to hit and run. Some swing and miss over this summer had some evaluators concerned, but he does have a track record of making a lot of loud contact. While he's clearly hit over power, he's stronger than some people think and there should be pop in the future. A plus runner, he can really play center and might be the best defensive outfielder in the class.

A dynamic athlete who goes hard at all times, he reminds some of a Grady Sizemore type in terms of his frame. He's committed to Vanderbilt and could easily move back up closer to the top of the first round with a return to who he's been in the past during his senior year.

In addition to being a lefty hitting high school outfielder from Southern California, PCA is similar to 2016 first rounder Blake Rutherford in that he's been on the radar a very long time, so long that scouts and publications are nitpicking his game because they have said or written pretty much everything there is to say or write about him. Baseball America says PCA was having a "sensational spring before the season shut down," possibly playing his way up draft boards, though the commitment to Vanderbilt may scare some teams away. It's typically a tough commitment to break and PCA's parents are both successful actors, so a big bonus may not grab his attention. That said, the Yankees lured Anthony Volpe away from Vanderbilt with a straight slot bonus last year, so it can be done. The Yankees highly value three things: exit velocity, athleticism, and good makeup. PCA has all three. He has a track record of hitting the ball hard, he's a great athlete, and all by accounts he's a hard worker and coachable. It doesn't hurt that scouting director Damon Oppenheimer loves SoCal prospects either. In a draft where they may only have three (!) selections, the Yankees could put all their eggs in the PCA basket and bet on a kid with high upside and the kind of left-handed thump that fits well in Yankee Stadium.

6. Remembering a random Yankee: Juan Acevedo. Next up in our series looking back at random Yankees of yesteryear is the 2003 Opening Day closer. No, really. We've already covered Oscar Azocar, Erick Almonte, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Brandon Knight, and Blake Parker. Mariano Rivera strained his groin late in Spring Training in 2003 and the Yankees put Acevedo in the closer's role in the interim. "If you're going to step into the fire, step into the fire, huh? It's weird, but I really try not to think about it," Acevedo told Tyler Kepner at the time. Acevedo, then 33, was a journeyman righty who saved 28 games for the 108-loss Tigers in 2002 and pitched to a 3.51 ERA (4.35 FIP) as a full-time reliever from 2000-02. The Yankees signed him to a one-year deal worth $900,000 a few weeks before Spring Training. Acevedo nailed down his first two regular season save opportunities without incident, but things quickly unraveled after that. Acevedo allowed a run in the ninth inning of a tie game against the (Devil) Rays on April 13th and allowed two runs with a three-run lead the next day. Rivera returned in late-April and by then Acevedo was far outside Joe Torre's Circle of Trust. He allowed 19 runs in his last 17.2 innings as a Yankee and, most notably, he allowed a first pitch go-ahead three-run home run to Eric Karros on June 7th, blowing a lead in what would've been Roger Clemens' 300th win (video). The Yankees released him three days later. "It had nothing to do with the 300th game. It was just another example of a poor performance," Brian Cashman told Ben Walker. Acevedo went 5-for-5 in save chances during Rivera's absence -- he recorded another save in a 17-inning game later in the season -- but finished with a 7.71 ERA (5.89 FIP) in 25.2 innings as a Yankee. For no reason whatsoever, here is the Yankees' saves leaderboard during Rivera's tenure as closer (1997-2013):

1. Mariano Rivera: 647
2. Rafael Soriano: 44 (42 when Rivera was hurt in 2012)
3. Ramiro Mendoza: 16 (scattered from 1997-2002)
4. Mike Stanton: 15 (scattered from 1997-2002)
5. Steve Karsay: 12 (most when Rivera was hurt late in 2002)
6. David Robertson: 8 (scattered from 2009-13)
7. Kyle Farnsworth: 7 (most when Rivera was hurt late in 2006)
8. Jeff Nelson: 7 (six scattered from 1996-99 plus one in 2003)
9. Tom Gordon: 6 (scattered from 2004-05)
10. Juan Acevedo: 6 (most when Rivera was hurt in 2003)

The Yankees released Acevedo on June 10th and a week later he signed with the AL East rival Blue Jays. He allowed eight runs in 12.2 innings with Toronto and ripped the Yankees for failing to treat a back injury earlier in the season. “I am getting a lot better treatment here. There is a lot more stretching. (The Yankees) knew in the middle of May when I had the CAT scan. They handled it their way and it’s over and done with. I wasn’t mad at being released, I was mad about how it was handled, but that’s The Boss and Cashman and how they do things," Acevedo told George King. Cashman was surprised to hear Acevedo's criticism -- "That comes from a guy who apologized to me 7-10 times, saying he let me down. He said the Yankees were a class act and thanked me for the release," the GM told King -- and that was that. Acevedo allowed 32 runs in 38.1 total innings in 2003 and never pitched in the big leagues again. He spent 2004 in Triple-A and 2005-13 in the Mexican League. Acevedo also spent six months in jail in 2010 for violating the terms of his divorce settlement. Charles Keeshan had the story on Acevedo's post-MLB career legal issues.

7. Rapid fire thoughts. I can't help but feel bad for Dellin Betances and Didi Gregorius, two former Yankees who signed one-year prove yourself contracts over the winter. Not only are there no games and thus no opportunity to show they can still be high-end contributors, but they're not getting paid during the shutdown and they're losing a peak year. Dellin holds a $6M player option for next year, so he can fall back on that. Sir Didi doesn't. He might have to take another one-year prove yourself contract this winter, in what could be a bad free agent market given the lost revenue this season. What a bummer ... What are bad teams going to do to lure fans back to the ballpark after the shutdown? The Pirates, for example, saw their attendance dip from 1.95M fans in 2017 to 1.49M in 2019. That's roughly a 25% decrease in two years. Now add the shutdown on top of that, and the likelihood that many fans will simply stay home to avoid large crowds even after stadiums and arenas can reopen to the public, and it could be very difficult for some rebuilding clubs to fill the park. The team isn't good and pandemic fears will linger. Some teams rely on gate revenue more than others and I wonder if MLB will have to step in to help keep some crummy rebuilding teams afloat if fans (understandably) don't come back following the shutdown ... Couple good articles to pass along. First, Kyle Higashioka and Jordan Montgomery penned posts detailing life during the shutdown. Higashioka's wife is loading a pitching machine so he can go through blocking drills in a barn and Montgomery is throwing at a local high school with a Twins minor leaguer. Also, Sam Miller wrote about each team's most "meme-worthy" moment. So many wonderful stories I never knew about. Check it out.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)