Quick reminder: I will be on vacation next week and I'm skipping next Friday's post. I am not even bringing my laptop with me, so I won't be able to react to breaking news. Things will be back to normal the following Tuesday. Anyway, here are my thoughts on the Luis Severino Tommy John surgery news, and here are today's bloggings.
1. Stanton's calf. Folks, we're back in 2019. It is not yet March and already James Paxton is hurt, Luis Severino is hurt, Aaron Hicks is still hurt from last year, and now Giancarlo Stanton is hurt again. He suffered a Grade 1 calf strain during outfield drills earlier this week and is questionable for Opening Day. Minor calf strains are usually a 2-3 week thing (and they're very easy to reaggravate if you don't let it fully heal), then Stanton will essentially have to go through Spring Training to get up to speed at the plate. Best case scenario is what, mid-April? Given this team's recent injury history, forgive me for betting against the best case scenario. "It’ll probably put us up against it a little bit. It’s time for him to get back, but then getting built up and stuff," Aaron Boone told Brendan Kuty. The whole Greek god body type hasn't worked for Giancarlo the last two years. Maybe he should just get fat and see what happens? (I kid, I kid.) Stanton's ongoing injuries are an obvious long-term concern -- the Yankees owe him $214M through 2027, though his $22M luxury tax hit (only the 38th highest in the game in 2020, believe it or not) is quite a bit lower than his $30.6M average annual salary from here on out, and the Yankees probably have insurance on the contract anyway -- but we can worry about 2021 and beyond at a later time. What's important right now is the fact the 2020 Yankees are losing key players on a near daily basis -- Aaron Judge is still ramping up his baseball work slowly this spring as he deals with a shoulder issue, remember -- and each injury takes a bite out of their AL East and World Series odds. They overcame all the injuries last year, sure, but do you really want to try that again? I do not. Counting on the injury replacements to hit on their 90th percentile outcome again is not a viable strategy. Stanton's injury means Miguel Andujar's (and Clint Frazier's) outfield work suddenly becomes very important -- Mike Tauchman is a cool guy and all, but please please please do not play him in left field full-time over the kids -- both short and long-term. They need to replace Stanton in the outfield on Opening Day and the ongoing injuries make it increasingly likely he will be a most of the time DH going forward. The injury also clears the way for projections darling Mike Ford to make the Opening Day roster and potentially get regular at-bats at DH. The offense will be fine without Stanton. Not as potent as it could be, but still among the best in the game. I feel pretty good about that. But damn yo, is this team ever going to shake the injury bug? Maybe it's time to fire the training staff again (kidding ... or am I?). I don't know how much longer the championship window will remain open, and each time a core player goes down, it lowers the chances of winning a title while it is open. This is beyond frustrating. (Have I mentioned how disappointing it was that the Yankees signed Gerrit Cole, re-signed Brett Gardner, and did nothing else this winter? Because it was very disappointing. Complacency breeds failure.)
2. Grapefruit League thoughts. On to the day's rapid fire thoughts about actual baseball. Two Spring Training games were televised this week and we got to see some good stuff. For starters, Clarke Schmidt pitched yesterday and looked pretty, pretty nasty. He spun a few excellent breaking balls -- Aaron Boone called them "bucklers," according to Lindsey Adler -- and also threw a changeup that moved so much it looked like a wiffle ball (GIF via Rob Friedman):

Schmidt, my No. 3 prospect, showed no-doubt Major League stuff yesterday. Three years ago Jordan Montgomery came out of nowhere to beat out more established fifth starter candidates and we can't completely rule out Schmidt doing the same this spring. On one hand, he just reached Double-A late last season whereas Montgomery had Triple-A time under his belt when he won a rotation spot, so I'd bet against it happening. On the other hand, lordy did Schmidt look good yesterday. Seeing how his arm has given out once already, I suppose there could be an "let's get what we can out of him before he blows out again" element in play here. I doubt it, but who knows? "He doesn’t have a lot of experience yet as a professional pitcher. He is clearly advanced for that lack of experience. He has got a lot of the intangible things as well as the raw stuff to move quickly," Boone told George King yesterday when asked whether Schmidt could jump to the majors right away ... welcome to left field, Miguel Andujar. Miggy made his left field debut Wednesday and was tested on the very first play of the game. He came in and called off shortstop Gleyber Torres on a shallow pop-up. Here's video. When you're learning a new position, nothing is routine, but Andujar did make that look routine. He was not tested again in the game but so far, so good in the outfield (he'll play left again today). Pretty much everyone with the Yankees says Andujar looks better than expected in the outfield, so I'm looking forward to seeing him out there more as the spring progresses. All I ask is that he catches everything he's supposed to catch, and rakes (he doubled in Wednesday's game too) ... we got our first look at Gary Sanchez's new catching stance during Wednesday's game. Sanchez is working on a modified one-knee stance with new catching coach Tanner Swanson that, in theory, will help him better frame low pitches without sacrificing the ability to block pitches in the dirt. It's the same adjustment Swanson had Mitch Garver make with the Twins last year, when Garver went from a terrible framer to a pretty good one. Here's the before and after (GIF via Lucas Apostoleris):

Sanchez alternated kneeling on his right and left knees Wednesday, so don't read too much into which knee he's on. It seems the key difference is the other leg. Last year Sanchez's non-kneeling knee (what a mouthful) was straight up. He was standing on that leg almost flat-footed. This year his non-kneeling knee is extended out and in a much more athletic position, which would seem to give him more mobility. How that helps frame low pitches, I have no idea, but it does, apparently. Anyway, that's the new catching stance in action. Gary has four weeks to get comfortable with it before Opening Day. "It’s a work in progress right now. Like I said before, it's something new to me and something that I still am learning. A couple of times I felt that I was in-between, the rhythm was not as good," Sanchez told Pete Caldera earlier this week (here's Jay Jaffe on Sanchez's new catching stance) ... Clint Frazier has made a minor adjustment to his pre-pitch setup at the plate. Specifically, he's a bit more closed and his front foot is on his toes much more than it was last year. The YES Network put up a nice before and after graphic during yesterday's game:

Frazier hammered a home run over the left field concourse yesterday (video) -- he turned it loose on a 3-0 fastball down the middle -- and the new stance allows him to stay on his back leg more, rather than disengage with the ground. Remember that weird little back leg hitch in his swing? That's (mostly) gone. During yesterday's broadcast Ryan Ruocco said he spoke to Frazier, and Clint said he has about 60% of his weight on his back leg now. It was 50/50 before. Offense has never really been a question with Frazier -- he was hitting .283/.330/.513 (117 wRC+) when he was sent back to Triple-A last year -- but there are always ways to get better. If the new pre-pitch setup allows Clint to be even more dangerous at the plate, I'm all for it. "A lot of times people talk about my bat speed. It was always there, but it felt like shooting a gun with it on safety. There were things that were stopping along the way and it didn’t fire the way I wanted it to. I think this move is the best chance to let that play," Frazier told King ... Masahiro Tanaka is working on a new-ish cutter and he broke it out a few times Wednesday. He didn't know exactly how many he threw after the game -- "I can’t clearly remember, but quite a few," he told King -- and it's difficult to tell a cutter from a four-seamer from the offset camera angle, but the cutter was indeed thrown. Tanaka is working on that pitch this spring, presumably to give him another weapon against lefties, who crushed him last season when his trademark splitter was misbehaving. It seems the cutter is not one of those "he says he's working on it in bullpens but we never see it in games" things. Tanaka's legitimately working on it. “I liked the way it was coming out of my hand, how it was moving and I was able to see the hitter’s reaction," he told King ... Tyler Wade is noticeably more jacked this spring. I mean (photo via Presswire):

Coincidentally, or perhaps not, Wade hit a ball on the roof of the concourse yesterday (video). The Yankees need a utility infielder who can play shortstop and Wade can do that. If nothing else, the kid can play the field. If he hits even a little bit, maybe something like .260/.330/.380, he would be awfully valuable given his speed and glove (says pretty much the only Tyler Wade fan in Yankeeland). "I just feel like the opportunities are there for me to take ... It takes failures to succeed, and so it didn’t happen as fast as I wanted it to. It’s not going to. I feel like, when I’m playing every day in September, I’m kicking down the door a little bit. Just build off that success I had and take it into this camp and throughout the year," Wade told Ken Davidoff ... Jonathan Loaisiga's usage indicates he may not be a serious contender for the fifth starter's spot. He threw an inning on Feb. 23rd and two innings on Feb. 27th, so the Yankees don't have him on a five-day schedule, and yesterday's two innings were the eighth and ninth innings, after the other team pulled all their starters. Loaisiga faced a bunch of minor leaguers and non-roster guys. Not the best time to evaluate someone competing for a job, you know? Maybe the Yankees have already decided Loaisiga is their man and they don't care about results this spring, and are just getting him work, or maybe they've decided he's a reliever and are treating him accordingly. Loaisiga's usage is a #thingtowatch ... every 40-man roster pitcher has appeared in a Grapefruit League game except six: James Paxton and Luis Severino, who are hurt; Aroldis Chapman and Adam Ottavino, who are veteran relievers that don't need much spring work and will debut soon enough (Chapman threw live batting practice yesterday, Ottavino a day or two before that); Deivi Garcia, who starts today; and Ben Heller, who is MIA. I hope Heller's not hurt. He returned from Tommy John surgery late last year and looked pretty good in September, and I've been wanting to see more of him literally since the day the Yankees acquired him in the Andrew Miller trade. They don't check IDs on the mound. If you can get outs, it doesn't matter how old you are, but Heller turns 29 in August. It's time to get this show on the road, you know? Hopefully he gets into a game soon and his absence is just a scheduling quirk a week into the exhibition season.
3. How can he improve? Chad Green. Next up in our series examining each core 2020 Yankee is the team's sometimes starter, sometimes high-leverage reliever. We've already covered Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Gerrit Cole, J.A. Happ, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Jordan Montgomery, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton, Luis Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, Masahiro Tanaka, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, and Luke Voit. Green faced his first real adversity as a big leaguer early last year, and things went so poorly he had to be sent to Triple-A. Former pitching coach Larry Rothschild mapped out some mechanical adjustments -- most notably, Green started setting his hands at his chest rather than at his midsection, which helped him break his hands more consistently and get his arm where it needed to be -- and three weeks later Green was back in the big leagues dominating. The before and after numbers:

Green allowed 14 runs and four homers in 7.2 innings before the demotion. He allowed 14 runs and four homers in 69 innings in 2017. Goodness. Green was back where he needed to be following the demotion though, and he even took to opening well. He did a real nice job bouncing back from that brutal April. Green was and remains a very important part of the pitching staff. As for getting better this year, two things jump to mind. First, continue doing whatever he did following the demotion. The mechanical adjustments worked and Green should stick with it. That's pretty obvious. The second way Green could improve is also pretty obvious: develop a reliable secondary pitch. Green has a truly elite fastball -- it's elite velocity with elite spin, and he located it very well -- and he uses it a ton, as he should. He threw it roughly 75% of the time last year. Green's primary secondary pitch is an 88-ish mph slider that just isn't good. It's not a consistent swing-and-miss pitch nor goes it generate much weak contact. Green toyed with a splitter late in 2018 and early in 2019, but it didn't take. He is a fastball pitcher with a show-me slider and that's it. As good as the fastball is, a reliable secondary pitch would be an obvious plus. The more weapons a pitcher has, the better. To that end, new pitching coach Matt Blake has Green working on a curveball this spring. Here it is in action during his spring debut Wednesday (GIF via Lucas Apostoleris):

Green has never thrown a curveball. He's been a slider guy since college. This is an entirely new pitch. He threw several of them in Wednesday's outing -- some were bad spinners with no real action, though he got at least one swing-and-miss with the pitch (the GIF above), and he also threw another good one to get a ground ball out -- and I think the curveball complements his fastball much better than a slider. Green likes to pitch up in the zone with his heater and the curveball is a pitch that starts up high and breaks down. The fastball and curve come out of his hand on the same plane, then one stays up and the other dives down. High fastballs and curveballs are a classic combination (here's a good example) and that seems to be what Green is working on this spring. I like it. The slider isn't improving, the splitter experiment came and went, so now it's on to the curveball. I think it'll play well off his fastball. We'll see whether Blake can help Green develop the pitch. Green doesn't need the curve to be a bona fide out-pitch (would be could though). He just needs it to be something the hitter has to respect. Something to get them off the fastball, change eye levels, and upset their timing. The fastball-only approach has worked well for parts of three seasons now but I'm not sure it's built to last long-term. An effective curveball could help extend Green's time as an elite reliever.
4. Roster check-in. Since the last time we checked in on the potential Opening Day roster we've learned Luis Severino needs Tommy John surgery and Giancarlo Stanton is likely to miss Opening Day with a calf strain. Also, Aaron Judge has not yet appeared in a Grapefruit League game as he nurses a sore shoulder, but everyone says he's doing well, and he's expected to begin playing in games next week. I'll take their word for it (for now). Opening Day is three weeks and six days away. Here is the latest 26-man roster projection:

As always, there are some interchangeable parts there. Could be Andujar in left field (!) with Ford at DH, King in the rotation over Loaisiga, Hale in the bullpen over Bettis, Estrada on the bench over Wade, so on and so forth. That roster is what I think is most likely to happen at this point in time. My hunch is the Yankees will carry a second long man type in the bullpen early in the season just to make sure they're covered. Montgomery is coming back from Tommy John surgery and presumed fifth starter Loaisiga has struggled pitching beyond the fourth inning as a starter, albeit in limited opportunities, and the Yankees will want guys in the bullpen who can go multiple innings, if necessary. Hale did fine work as a long man last season and could get a bullpen job for that reason alone. I'm guessing Bettis is ahead of him on the depth chart though, assuming he is all the way back following August hip surgery. He's a great ground ball guy, giving him a legitimate carrying tool, and he has a longer track record as a swingman/spot starter. I think the Yankees signed Bettis with that role in mind and Bettis signed with the Yankees with his eye on that role. Maybe they'll carry three long man types in the Opening Day bullpen (Hale over Holder?). We'll see. Given the projected Opening Day roster above, how's this look for a starting lineup:
1. 2B DJ LeMahieu
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. SS Gleyber Torres
4. 1B Luke Voit
5. C Gary Sanchez
6. DH Miguel Andujar
7. 3B Gio Urshela
8. CF Brett Gardner
9. LF Clint Frazier
The Yankees could go with Ford at DH and Andujar in left field against righties, and Andujar at DH and Frazier in left field against lefties. I feel like the 4-7 slots in that lineup could be arranged in any order and I'd be okay with it, though Voit hitting like pre-sports hernia Voit would make him the obvious cleanup hitter. It's not just the power, it's the on-base ability in front of Sanchez and Andujar, two lower on-base guys. Let him get on so they can drive him in, not the other way around. As long as LeMahieu, Judge, and Torres are in the top three spots, I'm okay with it. Getting back to the projected Opening Day roster, the lack of position player depth is a bit worrisome. Estevan Florial is on the 40-man roster but is not a call-up candidate. Not early in the season, anyway. Maybe he has that long-awaited breakout season and enters the picture in the second half. Would be cool. For now, Florial is a non-option, leaving Estrada as the only healthy 40-man roster position player in the minors. Not great. Journeymen like Herrera and Granite will have to be next in line call-up options. The Yankees have three 60-day injured list candidates in Hicks, Paxton, and Severino, so maybe they'll be active on waivers this month scooping up optionable position players. They have the 40-man roster flexibility (Bettis would need a 40-man spot in our roster projection, plus German will need one when his suspension ends). That's where the Opening Day roster sits at this moment. With any luck, it won't change any more between now and the start of the regular season. It's changed too much (and not for the better) these last three weeks already.
5. Early season schedule. The fifth starter situation is up in the air right now and the April schedule doesn't even allow the Yankees to skip their fifth starter early in the year. Teams in cold weather states typically have several scheduled off-days in April to deal with potential rainouts and whatnot, but not the Yankees this season. They have four off-days in the first six weeks of the season and two of the four are the requisite "off-day following the home opener in case the home opener gets rained out" off-days, and both come in the first week of the season (the Yankees have their own home opener and the Orioles' home opener). Games in Tropicana Field and an early season West Coast trip means the Yankees don't need as many April off-days as usual, and that means they can't skip their fifth starter a few times early in the season. Here is a potential rotation schedule in which the Yankees use off-days to push their fifth starter back as much as possible:

There is basically no way to use off-days to skip the fifth starter. The Yankees will have to use their fifth starter once during that six-game stretch from March 28th to April 2nd. They will have to use their fifth starter twice during the 12-game stretch from April 4th to April 15th and twice again during the 10-game stretch from April 17th to April 26th. The Yankees could push their fifth starter back as far as possible during those stretches, but what's the point? That guy has to pitch anyway. Might as well stay on a regular five-man rotation to give everyone extra rest whenever possible. Gerrit Cole threw 249 innings and pitched deep into October last year. Why overload him in the first month of a nine-year contract? Jordan Montgomery is coming back from Tommy John surgery. The Yankees love to give Masahiro Tanaka extra rest whenever possible. J.A. Happ is 37. Those guys could all use the extra day whenever possible, and since the schedule doesn't allow the Yankees to skip their fifth starter outright, might as well stay on turn. And truth be told, the Yankees have not used off-days to skip their fifth starter in April a long time. As best I can tell, 2013 was the last time the Yankees made a concerted effort to avoid their fifth starter in April. They rode their veteran horses (CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte) early that year. They have (mostly) stayed on turn in April since then. Rainouts could always alter rotation plans and that's something the Yankees will deal with as they pop up. Can't really do anything else. The schedule eases up a bit in May -- the Yankees have two off-days the week of May 4th and another off-day a week and a half after that -- but they'll play 35 games in 39 days to start the season, including 28 games in 30 days at one point. It's a lot of baseball early on, so even if they wanted to hide their fifth starter in April, the schedule does not allow it.
6. Rapid fire thoughts. Over the weekend Aaron Boone and James Paxton said the lefty is about 10 days away from throwing, so now he's about five days away. That fits the original 3-4 month timetable. Paxton had surgery on Feb. 5th, so he's close to a month out. Figure a month of throwing progression (catch to long toss to bullpens to live batting practice, etc.) and a month of minor league rehab games, and we're at three months. Paxton has to go through an entire Spring Training, essentially. For now, his recovery seems to be going well, and that's the most important thing. "We are upping the exercises each day. (This past Monday) we are going to add resistance to leg exercises. I am moving along really well. No setbacks so far," Paxton told George King ... Masahiro Tanaka told Brendan Kuty the baseball feels like the 2017 baseball this spring, meaning it's softer and has higher seams (Zach Eflin said something similar). That doesn't mean the regular season ball will feel the same way, but that's where we're at right now. "The one we’re using right now is pretty similar to what we used in 2017 ... But when you look back at last year it feels like it was good in Spring Training and then it changed once the season started. So that’s my take on it," Tanaka said ... Luke Voit spoke to Kristie Ackert about his sports hernia and apparently the injury was worse than he realized. He tore a bunch of ligaments down there and had to have them reattached. Ouch. "I was just like, ‘Wow,’ I didn’t really know it was that bad. I tried to fight through it ... The past is the past, but now I’m feeling good and ready to get things rolling," he said. I feel like Voit's return is flying under the radar a bit. He's an impact offensive performer when healthy, and as interesting as Mike Ford is, Voit can be a real difference-maker ... we've talked a bit about the automated strike zone and what it'll mean for catchers and pitch-framing once it arrives, whenever that is. We're also going to need to have a conversation about what it means for pitchers too. Would an automated strike zone help or hurt a guy like Tanaka, who lives on the edges? I guess it depends whether he's going from a good framing catcher or a bad framing catcher to the automated zone. This is a topic for another time now that Spring Training underway. It's something that crossed my mind recently though and I figured I'd mention it. It's not just catchers who will impacted by the automated zone. In fact, they might be among the least impacted when you consider pitchers and hitters will have to recalibrate their strike zones.
Glenn asks: I’m wondering if Severino’s 2017-18 workload would be considered severe by the norms we now go by? It seems to me they really pushed him to the limit. I wonder if they’ll be more careful going forward? Thanks, Mike.
"Severe" is probably overstating it, but Severino did endure a big workload at a young age. Here are his year-by-year innings totals (teams track high-stress pitches and other things, not just raw innings totals, but innings work for our purposes):
The 48.1-inning jump from 2014 to 2015 is big, and then the 58-inning jump from 2016 to 2017 is enormous once you consider MLB innings are more stressful than Triple-A innings. (The 47.2-inning jump from his previous career high in 2015 to 2017 is still very large.)
A few years ago I noted pitchers who threw at least 190 innings in their age 23 season like Severino were a mixed bag going forward. Some developed into true workhorses, like CC Sabathia and Felix Hernandez. Many others broke down in the not-too-distant future, like Jeremy Bonderman and Tommy Hanson. Unfortunately Severino belongs to the latter group.
In hindsight, it's easy to say the Yankees worked Severino too hard at a young age. In real time, workload management is much more complicated. Shutting Severino down or even just skipping starts during the 2017-18 postseason races would not have been easy. The Yankees did their best to balance health and winning at the time.
I'm comfortable chalking Severino's Tommy John surgery up to a pitcher getting hurt because that's what pitchers do. It sucks, but it's part of the game. The Yankees will continue being cautious with their top young arms. More cautious than they were before? I'm not sure. Preventing injuries is an inexact science. At some point you just have to let the kids pitch to continue their development.
Danny asks: Luis Severino needs TJS and everything is on fire in our rotation (in the not good way). What are your thoughts on Danny Salazar on a flier deal? And what other external options are out there? Granted the Yankees now have much less leverage in contract negotiations, but that is what it is. We need another arm.
I covered external options earlier this week. As for Salazar, he elected free agency after being outrighted off the 40-man roster in November, and he remains unsigned. He missed the entire 2018 season following shoulder surgery and when he came back last August, he looked horrible. His velocity was way down ...

... and there was nothing on his pitches. His breaking balls had no bite, his changeup wasn't sharp, and his location stunk too. Salazar suffered a season-ending groin injury in his first start back, so he's thrown four MLB innings in the last two years, and he did not look good at all in those four innings.
Similar to Collin McHugh, there has been no update to Salazar's MLBTR archive since he was outrighted on Nov. 4th. Zero rumors involving him over the winter and that's a pretty good indication teams are scared of the medicals. I'd give him a minor league contract and see what's what. No risk there. I don't think the Yankees could consider him a viable MLB option at this point. Not given how he looked last year before the groin injury.
Jon asks: On the non-pitcher side of the roster, could you run through minor league option status for the players? It might be Spring Training beer goggles, but there seems to be more quality depth than roster spots everywhere but middle infield.
As you can see in the roster check-in blurb above, the Yankees have six players out of minor league options: Luis Cessa, Kyle Higashioka, Tommy Kahnle, Gary Sanchez, Mike Tauchman, and Gio Urshela. The Yankees aren't sending any of those guys to Triple-A, but, if they wanted to, they'd have to put them through waivers first.
Once added to the 40-man roster, players get three option years, meaning they can be sent up and down as many times as the team wants within one season for up to three years. After that, the player has to be put on waivers. Here is the minor league option status of notable Yankees:
Players with at least five years of service time can refuse a minor league assignment, so the Yankees couldn't option James Paxton down without his permission. They can send him down for a rehab assignment (and will when the time comes), but they can't just stash him in Triple-A. He can refuse that.
None of the non-roster guys the Yankees have in camp can be optioned once they're on the 40-man roster. They either have too much service time (Luis Avilan, Chris Iannetta, etc.) or are out of options (Zack Granite, Rosell Herrera, etc.). They're not on the 40-man now, so they can be sent down. Once they get called up though, there's no going back.
Frazier and Wade having an option remaining is good for the Yankees and bad for them. The team can shuttle them up and down as necessary this year. I'm sure those two are sick of it and would rather be out of options and on an MLB roster, either with the Yankees or another team. They'll have to wait another year for that though.
(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)
Chris
2020-02-29 00:50:07 +0000 UTCChris
2020-02-29 00:46:34 +0000 UTCMikeD
2020-02-28 20:49:08 +0000 UTCDocBob
2020-02-28 20:46:24 +0000 UTCBig Davey88
2020-02-28 15:48:57 +0000 UTC