February 21st, 2020: Severino, Judge, LeMahieu, Chapman, Mailbag

Baseball is almost here. The Yankees begin Grapefruit League play tomorrow afternoon and yes, the game will be televised. J.A. Happ will start and Marly Rivera says Domingo Acevedo, Luis Avilan, Luis Cessa, and Mike King are among those scheduled to follow him. Because I like you, I put together a Spring Training broadcast schedule. Here's the link. Keep it handy these next few weeks. Now on to today's thoughts.

1. Severino's forearm. So let me get this straight. The Yankees went into the winter knowing James Paxton's back was acting up, knowing Luis Severino's forearm was giving him problems, and knowing Masahiro Tanaka needed surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow, and their entire offseason plan was add one (1) new player and do nothing else? I know that one new player is the best pitcher in baseball, but damn yo. Couldn't come up with a better depth arm or swingman than Nick Tropeano? As I'm sure you know, Severino was shut down with forearm tightness yesterday. He will see the doctor later today and will begin a regimen of anti-inflammatories and rest. Severino was throwing bullpen sessions as recently as this past weekend and he only feels discomfort when throwing his changeup. The fastball and slider are fine. "It’s definitely frustrating to hear this stuff again. It is so weird, I don’t get it. I just want to play baseball. I just want to pitch," Severino told Sweeny Murti this morning. Brian Cashman said the injury dates back to the ALCS -- Severino was cleared to start a potential Game 7 -- and the Yankees had Severino examined throughout the offseason. Cashman told Marly Rivera that Severino went for two MRIs and a CT scan over the winter, which came back good. There are loose bodies in Severino's elbow, but he's asymptomatic and the forearm issue is apparently unrelated (you'd be surprised how many pitchers have stuff floating around in their elbows). Here's what Aaron Boone told Ken Davidoff yesterday:

“Clean, negative, consistent with the previous (MRI)," Boone said. “Came here and started an anti-inflammatory program and throwing [bullpen sessions]. He has been doing really well, but we haven’t had have him throwing his changeup. He has been fastball, slider and everything is good. As he started the anti-inflammatories, then we re-entered his change-up the last couple of days on flat ground. No issues with that and then [Wednesday] night just sitting at home started to feel that soreness again and came in sore this morning. We will shut him down for a couple of days."

Cashman said the Yankees don't know whether this is a short-term or long-term issue right now. They're in wait-and-see mode. "Let’s see how he feels in the coming days before putting (him) through a whole new testing battery as we have done some of those," the GM said. Forearm tightness is a common precursor to Tommy John surgery but it doesn't automatically mean surgery. Last year Tyler Glasnow went down with forearm tightness (he got hurt in a game against the Yankees) and was able to avoid the knife. He returned later in the season despite suffering a setback along the way. The good news is the two MRIs and the CT scan apparently showed Severino's ulnar collateral ligament is intact. The bad news is this dates back to October and it hasn't gone away. Whatever the problem is, it's not getting better. The Yankees will of course be cautious with Severino. They'd rather him miss a little time now than a lot of time later. But geez, this is now three different arm-related injuries (shoulder inflammation, Grade 2 lat strain, forearm rightness) in a 12-month period, and the first two cost Severino basically the entire 2019 season. That the Yankees won 103 games without him last season is not a reason to think things will be a-okay. I don't think you can reasonably expect all the injury replacements to play to their best case scenario again. This is the rotation depth chart at the moment:

1. Gerrit Cole
2. Masahiro Tanaka
3. J.A. Happ
4. Jordan Montgomery
5-10. Chad Bettis, Luis Cessa, Deivi Garcia, Mike King, Jonathan Loaisiga, Nick Tropeano
11-13. Albert Abreu, Nick Nelson, Clarke Schmidt

The Yankees will use Spring Training to sort through that 5-10 group and, really, that could continue into the regular season should Severino be out long-term. They might have to cycle through a few guys until someone sticks, or until Domingo German returns from his suspension in early June. The emergency option is pairing someone with Chad Green as an opener -- the Yankees did that rather effectively last season -- but it's not ideal. It screws with Green's availability and limits Boone's options in the late innings. Green as an opener is more of a last resort than anything. How did Happ go from being trade bait all offseason to being the No. 3 starter on Opening Day? I hate this stupid sport sometimes. It is somewhat encouraging Severino can throw his fastball and slider without issue. I'm still worried because arm injuries are now becoming a thing, and because this latest injury is something that is known to develop into something much more serious. My fingers are crossed and I hope the anti-inflammatories and rest plan work. I'd be lying if I said I were optimistic though. This could be really bad. See you at the 2021 All-Star break bad. "I think we have a lot of people that would like the (rotation) opportunity. I think there's a lot of people with a lot of capabilities and ceiling. You’d prefer to run your ‘A’ team out there, but I think we have a pretty strong ‘B,’ ‘C’ and ‘D’ team as well," Cashman told Bryan Hoch.

2. Judge's shoulder. The Yankees have yet to play their first Grapefruit League game and already the injuries are mounting. 2020 is starting to feel a little too much like 2019 for my liking. James Paxton is out following back surgery and Luis Severino's forearm is acting up, and now Aaron Judge is nursing a right (throwing) shoulder issue. He's been nursing it since the offseason. It's important to note this is not the shoulder Judge had surgery on back in 2017. That was his left shoulder. This is his right shoulder. From George King:

"It probably started a couple weeks ago, when I first got down here. I’ve been hitting since early November, and working out since early November. Once I got down here (last month), hit on the field, hitting outside I just felt a little soreness up in the shoulder,’’ said Judge, who had surgery on his left (non-throwing) shoulder following the 2017 season. “Nothing alarming, nothing that I was like, ‘Hey, we need to really check this out.’ So I said, ‘We got plenty of time going into spring training; let’s take it slow these next couple days, make sure everything’s right, and then kind of go from there.'"

"We did put him through a battery of tests. So he had an MRI and it was kind of what his shoulder has always been. Not much has changed," Aaron Boone told King, which I guess is good news. Judge has shagged fly balls, gone through agility drills, and played light catch this week. The light catch part is important because he's having problems with his throwing shoulder, and he wouldn't be playing catch if the injury were more serious. Judge has not yet swung a bat but that will happen very soon, possibly even today. "(We) expect him to start his hitting program and ramp it up tomorrow. He'll be in the cage, probably hitting off the tee, soft toss, doing what he does. Feel good about where he's at," Boone told Marly Rivera yesterday. There are two ways to look at this. One, Judge is doomed. We've all been scarred by last season, so any and all minor injuries will become major injuries. It is the Yankee way. And two, last year is last year, and sometimes minor injuries really only are minor injuries. Remember when Gleyber Torres had an abdominal problem last August? Or when DJ LeMahieu had a groin issue in July? Minor injuries that were truly minor. Crazy idea. It is mid-February and this is when the Yankees (and every team) should be cautious with their star player. The injury is not to Judge's surgically repaired shoulder, so this is not a chronic issue flaring up again, and it is not to his front (power) shoulder when hitting. Front shoulder injuries can be a major problem. This ain't that. Doesn't mean it can't be serious -- Miguel Andujar had surgery on his back shoulder last season -- but it could've been worse. I know we're all conditioned to expect the worst with injuries given last season, and chances are nothing I tell you will make you worry less. All I can say is I'm sure the Yankees and their new training staff are being extra cautious this early in Spring Training, and they're following the doctor's orders. Every team deals with minor aches and pains in February. It's part of baseball. Sometimes those aches and pains become long-term problems, and other times they're just minor little things that go away. I am much more confident Judge's shoulder falls into the latter category than I am Severino's forearm. If Judge's shoulder turns into a big issue, well, the Yankees will deal with it when the time comes (sign Yasiel Puig!). Not much more anyone can do now other than be patient and give the shoulder time to rest and calm down. "We want to make sure we treat him conservatively and get him in a really good spot before we hit the ground running with him. We feel like it's a pretty minor thing, and probably in the next couple of days we'll start ramping him back up. It's something we just wanted to get ahead of," Boone told Bryan Hoch.

3. LeMahieu extension. In news I would not call even a little surprising, DJ LeMahieu said he is open to a contract extension earlier this week, according to Ken Davidoff. I mean, duh. Of course he is open to taking more of the Yankees' money. This was a weak free agent class for infielders. Here are the offseason's richest free agent infielder contracts:

1. Anthony Rendon: 7 years, $245M ($35M annually)
2. Mike Moustakas: 4 years, $64M ($16M annually)
3. Didi Gregorius: 1 years, $14M
4. Howie Kendrick: 1 year, $6.25M
4. Starlin Castro: 2 years, $6M

Rendon is a special case as a star player in his prime. As good as LeMahieu is, he is not Rendon. Sir Didi is a bit of a special case too because he had a poor 2019 season following Tommy John surgery. He's a reclamation project. Moustakas is the most reasonable contract benchmark for LeMahieu. He's a year younger than LeMahieu and, depending how you feel about Coors Field and park factors and all that, Moustakas has been a more consistently above-average hitter. Last season was his fifth straight season with at least a 105 wRC+. Only twice in the last seven years has LeMahieu reached even a 95 wRC+. LeMahieu's the better fielder but he's not more versatile. Moustakas will play second base with the Reds and he's played a ton of third base in his career, and some first base as well. Those are also LeMahieu's positions. The Moustakas contract seems to be the benchmark for a LeMahieu extension given the current market. Giving him four-year deal worth $64M right now means adding three years and $52M to his current deal, taking him through his age 34 season. There are two reasons to extend LeMahieu. One, he's really good, and you want to keep him in pinstripes for the foreseeable future. And two, there are few viable middle infield alternatives available, both internally and externally. Thairo Estrada and Tyler Wade are the only near MLB ready middle infielders in the system. Guys like Ezequiel Duran, Alex Vargas, and Anthony Volpe are years away from the big leagues. Beyond LeMahieu, the best middle infielders set to become free agents after 2020 are Gregorius, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, and Jonathan Villar (who might play center field this year). The Yankees loved Simmons once upon a time -- they tried to acquire him before getting Gregorius -- though it's unclear whether the interest remains. Simmons will turn 31 in September and his defense may not remain god-level much longer. Semien is awesome but short on track record, and there could be a fierce bidding war for him. The trade market? Who knows, though I will continue to dream about a potential Francisco Lindor trade. Lock up LeMahieu now and the Yankees know they have a very good middle infielder under control another few years and won't have to bid against other teams to retain him. That's the argument for signing him. The argument against signing him to two-fold. One, LeMahieu has all the leverage right now. He had an MVP caliber season a year ago and his earning potential has never been greater, and that's a recipe for a team unfriendly contract. And two, aren't you at least a little worried about what LeMahieu looks like without the rocket ball? Maybe worried isn't the right word. Curious might be more appropriate. High-contact/low-power hitters, which LeMahieu was prior to 2019, typically don't age well unless you're a Hall of Fame level talent like Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn, or Derek Jeter. Walks and homers aren't called "old player skills" for nothing. Those skills tend to age well. From 2016-18, LeMahieu had a 13.3% strikeout rate and a .131 ISO. Three years ago 11 players other than LeMahieu qualified for the batting title with a sub-15% strikeout rate and a sub-.150 ISO: 

• Melky Cabrera: 11.1 K% and .137 ISO (age 32)
• Dee Gordon: 13.4 K% and .067 ISO (age 29)
• Ender Inciarte: 13.1 K% and .106 ISO (age 26)
• Joe Mauer: 13.9 K% and .112 ISO (age 34)
• Joe Panik: 9.4 K% and .133 ISO (age 26)
• Jose Peraza: 13.5 K% and .066 ISO (age 23)
• Brandon Phillips: 12.1 K% and .131 ISO (age 36)
• Buster Posey: 11.6 K% and .142 ISO (age 30)
• Albert Pujols: 14.6 K% and .145 ISO (age 37)
• Jean Segura: 14.7 K% and .128 ISO (age 27)
• Andrelton Simmons: 10.3 K% and .143 ISO (age 27)

That was only three years ago! How many of those players are clearly worth an MLB roster spot going into 2020? Simmons because of his glove. Posey despite his offensive decline because he plays the most demanding position on the field. Segura because he is still only 29 and a good enough hitter and a good enough defender. And that's it. Even a few of the 20-somethings on that list (Gordon, Inciarte, Panik) have devolved into fringe roster players these last three years. Maybe LeMahieu is an outlier and ages gracefully. That would be cool. Given what we know (and don't know) about the baseball though, holding off on an extension and letting the season play out is perfectly reasonable to me. That's my preferred approach. I think an extension now, before the season even begins, carries an awful lot of risk for the Yankees. The Yankees can certainly outbid any team for LeMahieu after the season, and if his contract upside really is something like the Moustakas deal, I don't see the harm in waiting at all. Give LeMahieu a market rate extension right now and I think it's much more likely we look up in eight months and say "wow, the Yankees probably shouldn't have rushed into that" rather than "wow, good thing the Yankees locked him up when they did." LeMahieu is open to an extension and there's no harm in discussing it now because he might take a sweetheart deal. Otherwise I say let the season play out and reevaluate things in the offseason. I am perfectly cool with waiting out the soon-to-be 32-year-old coming off a season that was the best case scenario in so many ways. "We haven’t had any discussions at this time and obviously if we did start any negotiations with anyone at any time absent of free agency, we would always try and keep them private, to the degree that is ever possible,” Brian Cashman told Davidoff. (To be clear, I am totally cool with the Yankees giving LeMahieu whatever. Better he gets the money than the Steinbrenners. That said, in a world where the Yankees are seemingly at or near their payroll ceiling, every dollar counts.)

4. How can he improve? Aroldis Chapman. Up next in our series looking at each core 2020 Yankee is the closer. We've already covered Zack Britton, Gerrit Cole, J.A. Happ, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton, Luis Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, Masahiro Tanaka, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, and Luke Voit. ALCS walk-off homer aside, Chapman was incredible last season, pitching to a 2.21 ERA (2.28 FIP) with 36.2% strikeouts in 57 innings. Only three home runs allowed too. Is this good? This seems good:

That performance and those underlying numbers allowed Chapman to leverage his opt-out clause into a one-year extension worth $18M early in the offseason. He's now owed $48M in real dollars through 2022 ($17.5M luxury tax hit). Perfectly reasonable for a closer of this caliber. Chapman has remained elite despite losing velocity because a) he still throws really freaking hard, and b) he's throwing more sliders. Some numbers:

• 2016: 101.1 mph average fastball and 15.3% sliders
• 2017: 100.1 mph average fastball and 19.8% sliders
• 2018: 99.2 mph average fastball and 25.5% sliders
• 2019: 98.3 mph average fastball and 31.0% sliders

Over the last three years Chapman has lost close to 3 mph off his fastball -- it is absolutely bonkers his fastball once averaged 101.1 mph in a full season -- and doubled his slider usage. That slider has been a real difference-maker. Chapman deserves major props for making the adjustment and remaining elite. It's not easy to do. The slider is not the only pitch he's using more often, however. He's also throwing more sinkers now too, and it is a true sinker. Here's a four-seamer. Straight as an arrow. Here's a sinker. Look at that sucker run to his armside. Take Chapman's fastballs and plot the vertical movement against the horizontal movement, and you get two distinct groupings:

The sinker is real. Chapman threw zero sinkers prior to 2017 (okay fine, he threw three in 2014, but that's it). Then it was 5.7% sinkers in 2017, 7.7% sinkers in 2018, and 10.2% sinkers in 2019. I think the sinker could be the key to getting better in 2020, or even just maintaining this level of performance. Chapman's almost completely shelved his changeup since joining the Yankees -- he threw 89 changeups in 2015 and eight total from 2018-19 -- so I assume that pitch is not a realistic option. The sinker though, the pitch he has quietly thrown more and more the last few years? That could be the next adjustment, leaning on the sinker to get more grounders (42.1% grounders in 2019 and 43.2% career) and keep missing barrels. Strikeouts are great. Soft contact is good too, and while Chapman gets plenty of it now, that could change as he continues to lose velocity. Last season Chapman was at 60% four-seamers, 30% sliders, and 10% sinkers. Could he get to something like 35% four-seamers, 35% sinkers, and 30% sliders? The biggest challenge may be throwing the sinker for strikes. Chapman is not blessed with great control to begin with -- last year's 10.6% walk rate was slightly better than his 11.5% career average -- and that sinker really moves. He can struggle throwing his straight four-seamer for strikes at times. Throwing the sinker for strikes consistently might not be possible. Chapman falls into the Cole/LeMahieu category as a guy who's already so good that it's hard to see how he could be better. Unless something miraculous happens like Chapman regaining velocity or cutting his walk rate in half, the sinker might be the only way he could be even better moving forward.

5. 2020-22 ZiPS projections. Now that every team's ZiPS projections have been posted, FanGraphs put together a leaderboard that includes not only 2020 ZiPS, but also 2021 and 2022 ZiPS projections. We already looked at Gleyber Torres' five-year ZiPS and they are incredible. Now we have three-year ZiPS for every player. You will be shocked to learn ZiPS projects Mike Trout to be the best player in baseball over the next three seasons at +22.9 WAR. Alex Bregman is a distant second at +20.5 WAR, though ZiPS doesn't including an adjustment for banging garbage cans. Take a look at the 2020-22 ZiPS leaderboard for pitchers:

1. Gerrit Cole: +18.3 WAR
2. Lucas Giolito: +15.6 WAR
3. Shane Bieber: +15.4 WAR
4. Jack Flaherty: +14.9 WAR
5. Stephen Strasburg: +14.6 WAR

For reference, CC Sabathia put up +17.1 WAR in his first three seasons in pinstripes and he was awesome. ZiPS projects Cole to be the best pitcher in baseball in 2020 (by 1 WAR), in 2021 (by 0.9 WAR), and again in 2022 (by 0.6 WAR). On the 2020-22 pitching leaderboard, the gap between No. 1 and No. 2 is the same as the gap between No. 2 and No. 11. I know it's just a projection system, but lordy, ZiPS considers Cole the best pitcher in the game and it's not particularly close either. Here is my 2020-22 ZiPS spreadsheet. Now for some other quick thoughts. One, ZiPS has pre-forearm tightness Luis Severino as the ninth best pitcher in the game the next three years at +13.6 WAR. No other team has two top 10 pitchers either under contract or under team control the next three years. (Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard are both in the top 10, but Syndergaard will be a free agent in two years). Two, Gleyber Torres (+15.5 WAR) is projected to be the ninth best position player in baseball the next three seasons with Aaron Judge (+13.6 WAR) sitting 15th. The Braves (Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies) are the only other team with two top 15 position players under control the next three years, and the Angels (Trout and Anthony Rendon) are the only other team with two top 20 position players under control through 2022. Three, Cole, Torres, Severino, and Judge all rank in the top 25 in the 2020-22 ZiPS projected WAR. No other team has four players in the top 25 regardless of team control. The next team with four players on the leaderboard is the Astros with four of the top 44 (Bregman, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Justin Verlander). The next team with four players on the leaderboard who are either under contract or team control the next three years is the Nationals with four of the top 55 (Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Juan Soto, Trea Turner). The Yankees have the best three-year core in the game and it ain't close, at least according to ZiPS. Four, at +9.7 WAR, ZiPS has DJ LeMahieu as a top 50 position player the next three years, not far behind younger middle infielders like Fernando Tatis Jr. (+10.3 WAR) and Javy Baez (+10.1 WAR). Maybe that's a reason to dive into an extension now rather than let the season play out? Five, ZiPS projects Luke Voit (+6.3 WAR) to be more valuable than Paul Goldschmidt (+5.9 WAR) the next three years, and lol. Six, ZiPS projects Mike Tauchman (+6.6 WAR) to be more valuable than Andrew Benintendi (+6.5 WAR) the next three years, and LOL. Seven, Mike Ford gets more projections love. ZiPS has him at +4.7 WAR the next three years, a full win better than established first base mashers Joey Votto and Carlos Santana (both +3.5 WAR). Ford going from undrafted free agent to big league contributor, even as a platoon first baseman and DH, would really be something. Eight, Kyle Higashioka (+1.5 WAR) and Austin Romine (+1.4 WAR) have nearly identical projections, even on a year-to-year basis. One player will cost a few million in his free agent years. The other will make near league minimum salaries as a pre-arbitration guy. Easy to understand why the Yankees did what they're doing at backup catcher. And nine, Deivi Garcia's three-year ZiPS is +4.4 WAR, which puts him in great reliever/middling starter territory. Given his size, I think the most likely outcome is Garcia develops into a great late-inning reliever. A mini-Betances, basically. That said, of course he should remain in the rotation for the time being. Keep trying to make it work as a starter until it is clear it won't work. Garcia is still only 20 -- he is only 12 days older than Emerson Hancock, the No. 1 pitching prospect in the 2020 draft -- and he's already reached Triple-A, and he has a starter's repertoire. He just has to get his command on track and build up his stamina and durability. Deivi putting up +4.4 WAR through his age 23 season would be pretty cool. Only 22 pitchers did it last decade.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Craig Edwards ran some numbers and notes the Yankees will open the season with a $248M payroll, the highest in baseball. I think we all knew that already. The Dodgers have scaled back on their spending and the Red Sox are so dedicated to trimming payroll that they traded Mookie Betts (Mookie Betts!), clearing the way for the Yankees to take the top spot. What did surprise me is the Yankees are on track to lead MLB in payroll for the first time since 2013. 2013! Man, the Yankees should be atop that list each and every season. Efficiency is for suckers. The Yankees make more money than every other team and they should spend accordingly. You don't extra credit for winning on a budget. Not in this town ... earlier this week I passed along a report that MLB is raising the minor league minimum salary in 2021. Since then, Mark Gonzales reported the Cubs will give their minor leaguers at least a 50% raise this year, and Hank Schulman says the Giants will give their minor leaguers a raise and a housing stipend, also beginning this year. That's great news and I hope more teams follow suit. Minor leaguers are an investment and not even an expensive one for an MLB franchise. This can be done for less than $1M a year. Better nutrition and a housing stipend would go a very long way to so many minor league players ... three weeks ago I mentioned MLB has set criteria for when position players can pitch. The game must be in extra innings, or the score has to be separated by at least six runs. Since MLB has deemed a six-run separation to be so significant that a team can throw in the towel and use a position player on the mound, how about forbidding replay challenges at that point too? Managers still challenge calls in blowouts because they don't want to tell everyone they've given up, I get that, but they're a mostly waste of time. My proposed rule would let managers off the hook, and if there's a comeback and the game becomes close, the managers will regain the ability to challenge because the score will no longer be separated by at least six runs. I guess you could run into trouble if, say, there's a bang-bang play at first base that would load the bases, and the trailing team couldn't challenge. Maybe leave it up to the umpire's discretion at that point? I dunno. MLB has already set the standard that six runs is enough of a spread to let position players pitch. Seems like a convenient point to take away the ability to challenge too, and potentially speed the game up.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Tyler asks: What do you think of a postseason ban for the Astros? I understand the league granted immunity to the individual players, but why not punish the organization as a whole with a three-year ban? I believe there is precedent for this in European soccer, and I believe this would be a fair punishment for cheating their way to a World Series title.

I don't know much about European soccer, but this strikes me as something that works better in theory than reality. If the Astros know the can't return to the postseason until 2023, they'll trade 37-year-old Justin Verlander and 36-year-old Zack Greinke, impending free agent George Springer, and others. They'll go into a (soft?) rebuild and gear up for 2023.

The players are professionals and they'll play hard without the postseason carrot, but I get the sense the Astros would react in such a way that violates the spirit of the penalty. Firing A.J. Hinch and Jeff Luhnow and immediately replacing them allowed the Astros to skate around the suspensions, know what I mean? The consequences weren't that severe.

Rather than an outright postseason ban, the better solution may be forcing them to play all postseason games on the road, or even disqualifying them from postseason revenue. No gate receipts and no postseason shares. The money instead gets distributed to the other postseason teams. Hitting them in their wallet is the most effective punishment, I think.

Bonus Mailbag Question(s) of the Week

Paul asks: Have any pitchers mentioned anything yet about the spring training ball so far? Does it feel different from last year's ball? I assume spring training balls are the same as regular season balls? 

Daniel asks: Since we have no clue which ball teams will be playing with come the start of the since, which ball would you prefer teams play with? The rocket ball or the unjuiced ball? I think I prefer the rocket ball. I'm all for high scoring games and dingers. 

Gonna answer these two together. Similar to the postseason baseball, Spring Training balls are their own batch, and apparently each batch plays differently. There were no complaints about the ball last spring -- Masahiro Tanaka had no trouble with his splitter -- and then the season started and it was different. Spring Training doesn't tell us much, unfortunately.

As for the second question, I prefer the rocket ball, no questions asked. Remember 2014? The league average was a .251/.314/.386 batting line that year. The ball was dead. I'd much rather sit through endless dingers than little offense. Baseball with little action isn't much fun. Pitchers duels aren't cool when they happen every single night.

Bonus Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Steven asks: For your top 30 prospects, you mentioned a few players who the team had traded recently and where they would have ranked in the top 30. What about Rony Garcia? He had a decent year in Double-A last season. I doubt NYY will get him back.

The Tigers selected Garcia with the No. 1 pick in the Rule 5 Draft and I imagine they will keep him all season. The 22-year-old righty had a 4.44 ERA (4.21 FIP) with 23.3% strikeouts and 8.5% walks in 105.1 Double-A innings last year. Here's what Baseball America (subs. req'd) wrote in their Rule 5 Draft recap:

In 2019 he became more interesting as his fastball gained a couple of ticks. He can now touch 96-97 mph and sits 93 ... his above-average low-80s slider (it has curveball shape but lacks depth) gets some swings and misses. He also throws a hard changeup (88 mph) that is a chase pitch but is effective because he maintains arm speed and it has fade and sink. He also mixes in a cutter that he added this year. Garcia eats up righthanders but does struggle at times against lefties. He throws strikes and everything may play up if he moves to the pen.

I've been writing about Rony's cutter since 2018, yet Baseball America says it's a new pitch. Whatever. Baseball America did not have Garcia in Detroit's top 30 prospects in their 2020 Prospect Handbook -- he wasn't even listed on the depth chart, which ranks players beyond the top 30 -- while FanGraphs has him at No. 31 in the system.

Personally, I would have considered Garcia for my top 30 list because he had some success at Double-A and his ability to neutralize righties gives him a shot to carve out an MLB role. I don't think there's much upside though because there's nothing that looks like a potential out-pitch, and because the struggles against lefties are real, limiting his upside.

Garcia would've been in the mix for the back of the top 30 but I don't think he would've made it over guys like Canaan Smith (No. 29) and Josh Stowers (No. 30). The Yankees are loaded with arms in Triple-A and Double-A and it's tough for me to believe Garcia would've helped as anything more than emergency call-up. Going to the Tigers is good for his career.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)