January 10th, 2020: Paxton, Torres, Andujar, Iannetta, Tropeano, Red Sox, Maybin, Mailbag

Today's an important day on the offseason calendar. It is the deadline for teams and their arbitration-eligible players to submit salary figures for 2020. Most players will sign prior to the deadline. Only a handful will actually file. The Yankees have nine arbitration-eligible players on their roster and I'll have thoughts and analysis on whatever happens today in next Tuesday's post. For now, here are today's thoughts.

1. How can he improve? James Paxton. Pitchers and catchers report in less than five weeks and I have a series I want to run between now and then. It'll probably drag into Spring Training, but that's fine. In this series I want to examine every core Yankee (starters, late-inning relievers, and everyday players) and break down how they can improve in 2020. It's more obvious in some cases than others. I don't have a set player schedule in mind, so I'm just going to write about whoever I feel like writing about on a given day. Hopefully this is interesting enough. The series begins today with Paxton, who had a bumpy first four months in pinstripes before hitting his stride in August. The final numbers were very good but well short of elite: 3.82 ERA (3.86 FIP) with 29.4% strikeouts and 8.7% walks. The homer bug bit him (1.37 HR/9) and he was quite a bit better at home (3.35 ERA and 3.62 FIP) than on the road (4.33 ERA and 4.12 FIP), weirdly. Usually it's the other way around at Yankee Stadium. Paxton turned his season around when he scaled back on his fastball and threw more curveballs ...

... something I suggested he do right before he did it. I'm gonna pretend Paxton subscribes to the Patreon and take credit for it. Another adjustment will have to be made at some point -- baseball is a game of adjustments and eventually hitters will adjust to all the curveballs, and Paxton will have to adjust back -- but, for now, the anti-fastball approach is working, so expect Paxton and the Yankees to stick with it. As for improving in 2020, two things stand out. First and foremost (literally and figuratively), Paxton has to be better in the first inning. His first inning issues were comical at times. Sixty-nine pitchers made at least 29 starts last season. Here's where Paxton ranked among those 69 pitchers in various first inning stats:

• ERA: 9.00 (69th)
• FIP: 7.04 (69th)
• HR/9: 3.72 (69th)
• wOBA: .406 (69th)

Not very nice. Paxton allowed a first inning run in 15 of his 29 starts, including one stretch in which he allowed a first inning run in seven of eight starts. It felt like every time he took the mound, the Yankees were immediately playing from behind. The thing is, Paxton was among the game's best pitchers after the first inning. His numbers after the first inning were great (among those same 69 pitchers again):

• ERA: 2.59 (5th)
• FIP: 3.11 (5th)
• HR/9: 0.81 (4th)
• wOBA: .285 (18th)

Two completely different pitchers. First inning Paxton was the worst pitcher in baseball. Post-first inning Paxton was among the game's elite. That has been the pattern throughout his career too. Prior to last season Paxton owned a 4.01 ERA (3.89 FIP) in the first inning and a 3.29 ERA (2.97 FIP) in all other innings. The first inning is the worst inning for most pitchers -- last year the MLB averages were a 4.85 ERA (4.75 FIP) in the first inning and a 4.48 ERA (4.48 FIP) in innings two through five (I didn't want relievers skewing things so I stopped at the fifth inning) -- mostly because that's the only inning in which the other team's best hitters are guaranteed to bat, but, even adjusting for that, Paxton was worse than you'd expect in the first inning given his success in other innings. I have no idea how to correct this and I don't think it's as simple as throwing more pitches in the bullpen to simulate a first inning. There's probably a mindset component here in addition to anything physical. Paxton can be great, we've seen it outside the first inning, and getting over that first inning hump is the next step toward consistent greatness. The second thing Paxton can improve is his efficiency. He's a strikeout pitcher and he's going to throw a lot of pitches to get his outs, that's just the way it is, but there is still room for improvement. Here's where Paxton ranks among the 88 pitchers to throw at least 140 innings in 2019 in various pitch efficiency measures:

• First pitch strike rate: 65.6% (16th highest)
• Pitches per plate appearance: 4.21 (2nd highest)
• Pitches per inning: 17.1 (4th highest)
• Full count percentage: 17.1% (8th highest)

Throwing strike one was not an issue for Paxton. He was comfortably above the 60.9% MLB average first pitch strike rate. Despite all those first pitch strikes, Paxton still went to a full count on nearly one out of every five hitters he faced, and only three pitchers threw more pitches per inning. If you remove the start he exited with the knee injury and his first two starts back because he was on a limited count, Paxton averaged 5.34 innings per start in his 26 full starts. That's better than the 5.18 innings per start MLB average, but remember, all those openers are dragging down the league average. (Remove the Rays and the other 29 teams averaged 5.21 innings per start, so yeah.) As good as he can be, Paxton isn't much more than a five and fly pitcher. Only 13 times in his 26 fully healthy starts did he complete six innings. Only twice did he complete seven innings. The bullpen has something to do with that -- why push your starter up over 100 pitches in the sixth or seventh inning when you have that bullpen waiting? -- but Paxton is generally not someone who will chew up innings. Teams, including the Yankees, will take five great innings over six or seven good innings these days, and Paxton can give you those five great innings. To become a better pitcher going forward -- and that's the entire point of this series, to find ways players can get better -- becoming more pitch efficient and taking the ball deeper into the game is an obvious way Paxton can improve. Keep getting all those first pitch strikes -- the MLB averages were a .631 OPS after a first pitch strike and an .858 OPS after a first pitch ball in 2019, a split that has been consistent throughout history -- then figure out a way to get the out without getting into a deep count. That and overcoming the first inning hurdle are two ways Paxton can take a step forward this coming season, his contract year.

2. The new shortstop. The Statcast crew released a new infield defense metric called Outs Above Average earlier this week. It's the same idea as their outfield Outs Above Average statistic, but for infielders. OAA is based on things like how far the fielder has to go to get the ball, how much time he has, how fast the runner is, etc. Here's a primer. Javy Baez (+19), Nolan Arenado (+17), and Andrelton Simmons (+16) sit atop the 2019 OAA leaderboard with Vlad Guerrero Jr. (-16) at the bottom, so that passes the sniff test. A few spots above above Vlad Jr. at the bottom of the leaderboard is ... Didi Gregorius? Didi Gregorius. He rates very poorly and has trended in wrong direction in the three years of available data:

• 2017: -3 OAA (1% fewer outs than expected)
• 2018: -7 OAA (2% fewer outs than expected)
• 2019: -13 OAA (6% fewer outs than expected)

Almost all of Didi's poor performance is tied up in coming in on the ball. Last year he was at -12 OAA charging the ball. The year before it was -6 and the year before that it was -3. He's been fine going to his left and right. Coming in on the ball is where the numbers say Gregorius is weakest defensively. DRS is my preferred defensive metric and it too says Sir Didi has slipped in the field the last three years (+1 to -2 to -6). Gregorius has never struck me as exceptionally poor coming in on the ball, though that seems like it wouldn't be the easiest thing to observe. Oftentimes coming in on the ball is a difficult play and, when the play doesn't get made, it can be easy to write it off as baseball being baseball. The numbers say Gregorius isn't very good at charging the ball and is getting worse, and I'm certain the apparent defensive decline factored into the Yankees' decision to let him walk, among other things. Gleyber Torres, the new shortstop, was at -3 OAA at shortstop and -4 OAA at second base last year. The data can be sliced and diced in different ways though, and most of Gleyber's negative defensive plays at shortstop came when he was on the second base side of the bag in the shift:

• Torres on the second base side: -5 OAA
• Torres on the shortstop side: -1 OAA

(The numbers, -3/-4 and -5/-1, don't add up exactly due to rounding within OAA.)

My eyes tell me Torres is better defensively at shortstop, and that makes sense. It's his natural position. He's only played 197 career games at second base between MLB and the minors, so only a little more than a full season. Being better at short is understandable. In this case, the numbers match the eye test. Remove the "second baseman" and "shortstop" labels and instead focus on where he was literally standing on the field, and OAA tells us Torres is quite a bit better on the shortstop side of the second base bag. DRS and OAA both indicate Didi is in defensive decline. Between that, Gleyber's performance on the shortstop side of the bag, and their difference in ages, and the Yankees could enjoy a significant defensive upgrade at shortstop this season, even if may not be obvious to the naked eye and even if Torres only rates out as an average defensive shortstop. "Gleyber is a shortstop. We saw him last year play the position at a really high level, especially the first half of the season ... I know he won't be satisfied, so absolutely we expect that he can continue to improve on what he's already done," Aaron Boone said at the Winter Meetings.

3. Andujar update. It has been eight months since Miguel Andujar underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right (throwing) shoulder. Infrequent updates during the season and earlier this offseason indicated his rehab was going well. During a radio interview earlier this week, Aaron Boone said Andujar's rehab is right on track and he is expected to report to report to Spring Training as a fully healthy player. Bryan Hoch has the transcript:

“He's doing really well,” Boone said. “We believe he's going to be totally healthy as we enter Spring Training and good to go. He's doing all his ground ball [work] and throwing, and he's good to go right now. We feel like he's in a really good spot physically. We'll get to spend a little bit of time with him and put our eyes on him a little bit.” 

Boone said he and other members of the coaching staff are traveling to the Dominican Republic next week and they'll get a firsthand look at Andujar then. Hector Gomez posted video of Andujar going through his throwing program earlier this week and I gotta say, Miggy looks pretty jacked. He is noticeably bigger throughout his chest and arms. That's not automatically a positive -- there is such a thing as being too bulky and wound too tightly in baseball -- but it is evidence the guy has been putting in the requisite work these last few months. Andujar definitely hasn't been sitting around feeling sorry for himself during rehab. Reporting to Spring Training healthy and being able to produce in big league games are two different things. Andujar has not faced live, competitive pitching in months now and he may need more than 50-something Grapefruit League plate appearances to get back on track, then there's the defensive work. A few weeks ago Brian Cashman hinted at introducing Andujar to a new position(s) at some point and Spring Training is the logical place to do that. I'd try the outfield before first base -- right field in Yankee Stadium is much smaller than left field, which could be a factor when figuring out which corner spot to stick him -- but I wouldn't give up on third base yet. You gotta give talented young players a chance to get better. We know Andujar can hit. All he has to do is be a passable defensive third baseman to be an above-average player. For all we know Gio Urshela could be a rocket ball fluke -- I don't think he is, at least not entirely, but it is possible -- and the Yankees don't have another obvious third baseman behind Urshela and Andujar. They'd have to move DJ LeMahieu to third base, I guess, which does nothing but shift the problem from third to second. Anyway, I'm rambling. I'm glad to hear Andujar is doing well and is expected to be a healthy player come Spring Training. Hopefully he hits the ground running and can again be a lineup staple in 2020. If he needs a Triple-A rehab stint to get back up to speed at the plate, that's okay too. The more good and healthy players available, the better. (In case you're wondering, Andujar was at -11 Outs Above Average in 2018, with most of the damage coming on plays to his right.)

4. Iannetta signing. I had a feeling the Yankees were not done adding non-roster catchers even after re-signing Erik Kratz. Sweeny Murti reports the club has a minor league deal in place with journeyman Chris Iannetta. The 14-year veteran surely received an invitation to big league Spring Training, and, as a guy with more than six years of service time, his contract automatically includes a $100,000 retention bonus if he's not on the Opening Day roster and a June 1st opt-out. Iannetta, 37 in April, hit .222/.311/.417 (70 wRC+) with six home runs in 164 plate appearances with the Rockies last season. He is a known quantity at this point. The last few years Iannetta's been good for about 10 homers per 300 plate appearances, a walk rate north of 11.0%, a strikeout rate nearing 30.0%, and a wRC+ in the 70-80 range. Classic three-true outcomes hitter who almost certainly would've been out of the league a few years ago if not for his position. Defensively, Iannetta's arm is comically bad -- he's gone 12-for-112 (18%) throwing out baserunners the last three seasons -- and his pitch-framing numbers have been all over the place ...

• 2015: +16.4 runs
• 2016: -10.2 runs
• 2017: +11.0 runs
• 2018: +1.4 runs
• 2019: -5.3 runs

... so who knows. I could've sworn the Yankees had interest in Iannetta at some point in the past, but there's nothing in his RAB archive, so either I forgot to write about it (doubt it) or I'm misremembering (likely). As far as non-roster catchers go, Iannetta is about as good as it gets. Certainly a better option than my Eric Haase idea (Haase was traded to the Tigers for cash a few days ago). Iannetta's an experienced backup who knows the role, will take a walk, and will put a mistake in the seats. That's about all you can expect from a third string catcher. Kyle Higashioka is still the favorite to open the season as Gary Sanchez's backup. Iannetta is depth in case there's an injury in Spring Training or early in the season. He and Kratz are ticketed for Triple-A Scranton and hey, having two veteran catchers working with all those young prospect arms isn't the worst thing in the world. Sanchez, Higashioka, Iannetta, and Kratz is solid catching depth. It's not great, but it's workable. I certainly feel better with Iannetta as the first call-up option than I did with Kratz.

5. Tropeano signing. On Tuesday I said "I want the Yankees to sign a veteran Triple-A innings guy and I expect they will." On Wednesday they signed right-hander Nick Tropeano to a minor league deal with an invitation to big league Spring Training, according to Jon Heyman. Had I known the baseball genie was going to grant my Tuesday wish, I would've asked the Yankees to trade for Mike Trout instead. Big missed opportunity there. Anyway, the 29-year-old Tropeano looked like he had a chance to carve out a nice little career with the Angels a few years back -- I answered a mailbag question about him way back in 2015 -- but he had Tommy John surgery in August 2016 and hasn't been the same since. Last season he allowed 15 runs in 13.2 big league innings and had a 5.87 ERA (4.86 FIP) with 24.2% strikeouts and 8.8% walks in 79.2 Triple-A innings. Considering he was pitching with the rocket ball in the historically hitter friendly Pacific Coast League, that isn't too bad (the league average was a 5.48 ERA in the PCL last year). In his limited MLB time the last two years Tropeano showed average velocity and slightly above-average spin with his fastball and slider, and he had a good changeup back in the day, but I'm not sure what's up with that post-elbow reconstruction. The Yankees and their new data-driven player development staff may have (likely have) a plan in mind to help him add velocity and/or spin, like they did with David Hale last year. Tropeano is a local guy -- he grew up in West Islip and went to Stony Brook -- and I suppose he has more upside than the typical minor league depth arm because he's on the right side of 30 and could regain his previous form as he gets further away from Tommy John surgery. Nice little depth signing. (Tropeano and the aforementioned Chris Iannetta are the fifth and sixth players the Yankees have signed to minor league deals this winter, joining outfielder Zack Granite, utility man Rosell Herrera, catcher Erik Kratz, and righty Adam Warren. Warren will spend 2020 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.)

6. Red Sox cheating. The sign-stealing reckoning continues. Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich (subs. req'd) report "at least some players" with the 2018 Red Sox would visit the team's video replay room to study the other team's signs, then somehow relay the signs to a baserunner who relayed them to the hitter. "It’s cheating. Because if you’re using a camera to zoom in on the crotch of the catcher, to break down the sign system, and then take that information and give it out to the runner, then he doesn’t have to steal it," one whistleblower told Rosenthal and Drellich. Soon thereafter MLB issued a statement saying they will investigate the claims and the Red Sox issued a statement saying they will cooperate. The Yankees caught the Red Sox using Apple Watches as part of a sign-stealing scheme in 2017* and filing a complaint with MLB -- Boston did the same thing then that they are accused of doing now (illegally using electronics to decode signs, relaying them to a baserunner who relayed them to the hitter) -- and, when the fines were announced, commissioner Rob Manfred said he "received absolute assurances from the Red Sox that there will be no future violations of this type," to which I say: lol. I doesn't sound like Boston's cheating was (is) as extensive or as brazen as Houston's, but they're a repeat offender now, and the punishment should reflect that. Jeff Passan says MLB is expected to announce their discipline for the Astros within two weeks -- I assume the punishment announcement will be made before the Jan. 20th Hall of Fame announcement so MLB can quickly sweep the sign-stealing under the rug and bask in Derek Jeter-led Cooperstown glory (I laid out my proposed punishment a few weeks ago) -- and I assume that will serve as a template for the Red Sox's punishment. I hope it's harsh. Not because I hate the Astros and Red Sox -- pretty annoying the Yankees were eliminated by cheaters in the 2017 and 2018 postseasons! (must really suck for Dodgers fans, huh?) -- but because MLB has a chance to set a precedent here, and my preference is overpenalizing now and not get stuck looking lenient if (when?) new allegations come to light in the future. For what it's worth, Andy Martino says MLB is not "investigating or aware of any (sign-stealing) allegations" against the Yankees, and Brian Cashman was openly critical of the Astros a few weeks ago -- "I don’t think it’s a technological question alone. It’s just conduct. You decide to play by the rules, or you don’t," he said -- which is not something I think he'd do if the Yankees were cheating. Inevitably, more teams will get caught up in the sign-stealing scandal and I'm not naive enough to believe the Yankees are innocent bystanders in all this. Maybe Cashman was putting on a front with his comments about the Astros, maybe the players are doing something illegal without management's knowledge, or maybe it is something else was entirely. Who knows? I've long assumed every team is at least trying to steal signs using shady methods, including the Yankees. For now, it's just the Astros and Red Sox that are being investigated, and until the Yankees get caught up in this, this'll be me watching Boston and Houston getting their comeuppance (link to GIF):

* When the Red Sox were fined for the Apples Watches, the Yankees were also fined for improperly using a dugout phone during a previous season. Andy Martino now reports they were fined because former pitching coach Larry Rothschild called replay guru Brett Weber to check whether a certain pitch was a ball or a strike, so there you go. That's why the Yankees were fined in 2017.

7. Combating sign-stealing. Hannah Keyser reports MLB is looking into wearable technology to help the pitcher and catcher communicate, and thus combat sign-stealing. The league will ask players for feedback in Spring Training. Among the devices under consideration are a "wearable random-number generator and lights in the mound," and sure, why not. Might as go full weird with this. Earpieces are seemingly the easiest solution, but Keyser says minor league catchers who tested the technology last season found them distracting and uncomfortable. There is no timetable for a device to be approved and implemented, and I imagine it'll be a little while until we get something that doesn't hurt pace of play and isn't hackable. But, it is in the works. The Astros got busted pumping a live feed of the catcher's signs to a monitor in the tunnel between the dugout and clubhouse, and it sounds like the Red Sox were huddled in their video room studying a similar feed. Based on that, it seems to me the easiest way to eliminate similar high-tech sign-stealing is getting rid of video availability all together during games. No more video room behind the dugout and no monitors in the vicinity. Players wouldn't be able to review their at-bats until after the game or quickly watch video of an incoming reliever, so they will absolutely hate it, but too bad. I don't think it would have much actual impact on the game or quality of play. For replay challenges, move the video coordinator to the press box (put the video person right next to the official scorer) and prohibit uniformed personnel from visiting during games. Honestly, I would be completely cool with eliminating the video component of replay entirely. Make it a manager's gut decision. I am all for getting calls right but man do I hate the aesthetic of replay. The wait for the dugout to phone down to the video room, umpires standing around waiting for the call, the way every infielder points to the dugout and asks for a review after every single close play ... I hate it all. Maybe that's just me being old and grouchy, but instant replay is ugly as hell. Gut call replays would add a level of chaos to baseball and I am pro-on-field chaos. In all seriousness, get rid of the monitors and video rooms behind the dugout. That's a good first step in what will undoubtedly be an ongoing battle against high-tech cheating.

8. Rapid fire thoughts. As I was writing the Miguel Andujar blurb above it dawned on me that the Yankees will have a ton of Comeback Player of the Year candidates this coming season. Andujar, Luis Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, maybe even J.A. Happ if he doesn't get traded and the rocket ball goes away. Jordan Montgomery too. Other early candidates for the American League award include Tyler Glasnow, Corey Kluber, Lance McCullers Jr., and Chris Sale. The Yankees have had two Comeback Players of the Year (Jason Giambi in 2005 and Mariano Rivera in 2013) and they have a reasonable chance to land a third in 2019 ... the longer he sits in free agency the more I wonder whether the Yankees will bring Cameron Maybin back on a minor league contract. He didn't sign last year until Feb. 18th, so he may still be weeks away from making a decision, but he fit very well last season and he'd be a nice little piece of depth. One Spring Training injury and he's on the Opening Day roster. Maybin opened last season in Triple-A with the Indians, and, if he's willing to do that again, the Yankees should bring him back. Seems like a good fit for both sides if Maybin can't get a guaranteed big league deal somewhere else ... the Yankees should begin announcing their minor league coaching staffs within the next few weeks. They need a new Triple-A manager -- Jay Bell left to find a big league job and wound up being named manager of the (checks notes) Rocket City Trash Pandas, the Angels' Double-A affiliate -- and my guess is they will promote Patrick Osborn from Double-A Trenton. Osborn's been in the organization a few years now and is regarded as a rising managerial star. That's just a guess, but that's what I think will happen.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Michael asks: Do the Yankees have enough in prospects to swing a Nolan Arenado trade? And would the Rockies be willing to take back Happ and Ellsbury's dead money to offset some of the short-term cost?

I'm inclined to say yes, the Yankees can swing a Nolan Arenado trade. Arenado is owed $234M through 2026 and that ensures the prospect package won't be huge. Giancarlo Stanton was coming off an MVP season when the Yankees got him for some pocket lint. As good as Arenado is, no team is taking on that much money and giving up top prospects.

Arenado will turn 29 shortly after Opening Day and he is excellent. The guy puts up 35+ homers, a strikeout rate around 15.0%, a 130 wRC+ or so, and double digit runs saved defensively like clockwork. And he's averaged 157 games played the last five years and is said to be a captain-like makeup guy. Coors Field creates uncertainty but things mostly check out:

DJ LeMahieu was nice enough to show us that trying to discern a Rockies hitter's true talent level from his home/road splits is a terrible idea. And besides, Arenado managed a .277/.345/.573 (118 wRC+) line with 20 homers in 78 road games last season. If that's his true talent level, he'll be well worth his contract once you factor in his glove.

Using the Stanton trade as a template, the Yankees could send Gio Urshela and two lower level prospects (Luis Gil and Oswald Peraza?) to Colorado, and take on all that money. That would push the luxury tax payroll up around $290M, however, which would put the team's luxury tax bill at $43M (!) or so, so yeah, forget that. Not happening.

Including J.A. Happ ($17M) in the trade and convincing the Rockies to eat the equivalent of Jacoby Ellsbury's luxury tax number ($21.9M) would put the Yankees at $254M for luxury tax purposes in 2020, over the $248M third threshold. Then they'd get hit with Arenado's full $32.5M luxury tax hit from 2021-26, though at least they'd have time to plan for that.

Jon Morosi says there's a "50/50 chance" Arenado gets traded -- I've heard the Rockies are desperate to unload salary and have been trying to attach Wade Davis (owed $18M in 2020) to Arenado in a trade -- and there was talk the Yankees passed on Manny Machado last year because they wanted Arenado this year, but lol. No one actually believed that, right?

There is no indication the Yankees are in on Arenado this offseason despite last year's reported interest. They are pretty well set at third base with Urshela and Miguel Andujar on the mend. I would not call an Arenado trade likely. Not even close. Other teams seem much more motivated to get him. I wouldn't call it completely impossible either.

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Dave asks: I’ve been thinking about Sanchez’s apparent trade off between pitch framing and blocking balls. Made me wonder how long has the pitch framing skill been accurately measured? I can’t remember when we started hearing about that but isn't it relatively recent? And might it become the shortest lived metric in all baseball? After all the robo strike zone is coming, and won’t that negate the advantage of pitch framing? 

Former Yankees intern Ben Lindbergh wrote a post a few years ago explaining how the team began to quantify pitch-framing almost by accident in 2009. Another intern wanted to settle a "Jorge Posada's bat or Jose Molina's glove?" lunchtime debate and essentially stumbled into the analysis, so there you go. That's when teams started to figure this out.

Mike Fast introduced the public to pitch-framing analysis in Sept. 2011. He was later hired by the Astros and is currently an assistant to GM Alex Anthopoulos with the Braves. Teams started diving into pitch-framing analysis only 10 years ago and us outsiders have been aware of it for about eight years, so yes, this is all a relatively new development.

Similar to WAR, different sites measure pitch-framing in different ways. FanGraphs has their version, Baseball Prospectus has their version, and Statcast has its version. The numbers and methods differ, sometimes substantially, but they all generally rank players the same. They agree on the best and worst framers. Here's Gary Sanchez over the years:

Baseball Prospectus is my go-to framing metric mostly because they have Double-A and Triple-A framing numbers using MLB Advanced Media's minor league pitch-by-pitch data, so that's nice. As with pretty much all defensive stats, looking at framing numbers in the aggregate is the way to go. The science is getting better but it's still inexact. The more information, the better.

The automated strike zone -- MLB calls the system ABS (automated balls and strikes) -- is coming. The umpires union is onboard. And, once it happens, pitch-framing will have no value. Does the White Sox giving Yasmani Grandal, consistently an elite framer, a four-year deal indicate ABS is at least five years away? Not necessarily, but I bet they hope it is.

We know this much: ABS is a few years away. It was tested briefly in the Arizona Fall League this past season and it'll require rigorous testing in the full season minor leagues before it is implemented at the highest level. MLB won't introduce a work-in-progress system to the big leagues. Imagine this in an MLB game (link to GIF):

The Yankees hired new catching coach Tanner Swanson to help Sanchez with his receiving, so, until further notice, pitch-framing is a valuable skill and teams and players are working on it. Once ABS arrives, pitch-framing will disappear and catcher evaluation will change dramatically.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)