January 7th, 2020: Cressey, Trades, Mets, Three-Batter Rule, Triple-A Rotation, Colas, Herrera, Hudson, Thames, Draft, Arb-Eligibles

Pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa five weeks from tomorrow. Spring Training is slowly drawing closer, and thank goodness for that. I'm starting to get sick of the offseason even with the increased hot stove activity. Anyway, here are today's thoughts.

1. Yankees hire Cressey. The Yankees dismissed strength and conditioning coach Matt Krause last month and it turns out that was only the start of their training staff overhaul. According to Lindsey Adler (subs. req'd), the Yankees have hired touted performance coach Eric Cressey to oversee their training and strength and conditioning departments as part of sweeping organizational changes. Ken Davidoff says job titles and the new organizational structure will be officially announced soon. Here's a rundown of the changes:

• Cressey hired to oversee training and strength and conditioning departments.
• Longtime trainer Steve Donohue shifting into a "trainer emeritus" role.
• Assistant trainer Michael Schuk promoted to head trainer.
• Assistant trainer Tim Lentych will remain with the club in an unknown capacity.
• Assistant strength and conditioning coach Drew Weisberg will remain as well.

Cressey heads up Cressey Sports Performance -- new pitching coach Matt Blake was part of Cressey's staff from 2009-16 -- an independent training outfit with facilities in Florida and Massachusetts that emphasizes biometrics and other advanced methods. Cressey's lengthy roster of big league clients includes Corey Kluber, Lance Lynn, Max Scherzer, and Noah Syndergaard (and Mike King). Adler says Cressey has hiring power and will build his own staff, and the Yankees will allow him to continue running Cressey Sports Performance as well, which is an unusual but not unprecedented arrangement. Earlier this offseason the Reds hired Driveline Baseball founder Kyle Boddy to oversee their pitching development program, and they allow Boddy to remain involved with Driveline. No one seems worried about the potential conflicts of interest -- Boddy and Cressey will continue working with pros from other teams at their facilities while employed by the Reds and Yankees, respectively -- so why should I? Getting (and keeping) players healthy and optimizing their performance is good for baseball as a whole and I'm all for that. I don't know much about Cressey or his methods personally, but I do know he is extremely well-regarded within the industry, and that this is a significant move for the Yankees. For all intents and purposes, they went out and brought in the best in the business to oversee their training and sports performance departments. After a record-setting injury season, changes to the training staff seemed inevitable, and the Yankees didn't mess around. The Cressey hire is anything but a half-measure. There have been rumblings the last few weeks that the Yankees were a bit behind the times in the training and strength and conditioning departments, so now they are not only caught up, they're at the forefront of the industry. The Yankees have gone all-in on sports science the last 12 months or so and hired from outside the usual circles to accomplish that, including Blake, Cressey, Desi Druschel (manager of pitch development), and Dillon Lawson (minor league hitting coordinator). I'm not sure I'd call it exciting -- how exciting are new minor league coordinators and performance folks to even diehards fans, really? -- but it is fascinating. It's probably a stretch to call Cressey the Yankees' second most important offseason addition behind Gerrit Cole, but this is a big deal. The Yankees have taken significant steps to improve a perceived weakness. (If you're interested, King was on Cressey's podcast last month to discuss analytics, pitching mechanics, and the differences between the Marlins and Yankees, among other things. Adam Ottavino was on the podcast last April and discussed similar things.)

2. Lack of trades. I was planning to write about this today so I'm going to stick with it even though Derek at Views from 314 Ft. beat me to it yesterday: the Yankees have not made a notable trade this offseason. They dealt away Nestor Cortes and Chance Adams in post-designated for assignment trades, but those don't really count. I mean they haven't made a trade to improve the Major League roster. In each of the last five offseasons, the Yankees made a significant trade that reshaped their MLB roster before New Years:

• Nov. 2018: James Paxton
• Dec. 2017: Giancarlo Stanton, Chase Headley/Bryan Mitchell
• Nov. 2016: Brian McCann
• Nov. & Dec. 2015: Aaron Hicks, Starlin Castro, Chad Green/Luis Cessa
• Nov. & Dec. 2014: Justin Wilson, Didi Gregorius, Nathan Eovaldi

You have to go back to the 2013-14 offseason for the last time the Yankees did not make a trade that significantly changed their Major League roster prior to Jan. 1st. I think this is coincidental more than anything. The Yankees were able to address their single biggest need through free agency, no Stanton-esque trade fell into their lap (i.e. star player in a cheap trade), and while upgrades can always be made, there are no glaring holes on the roster. Back in 2014 and 2015, the Yankees were in transition mode and trying to build a base of young talent, hence the Castro, Gregorius, and Hicks trades. That's not really the case now. The core is in place and there aren't many obvious needs remaining, hence the lack of trades. Chances are the Yankees will salary dump J.A. Happ before Opening Day, plus the Josh Hader rumors persist, so I'd bet on the club making a trade that changes their Opening Day roster outlook at some point. It hasn't happened yet though and that makes this offseason an outlier compared to recent years. The Yankees spoiled us with trades in November and December the last few winters. Now? Nothing. (Personally, I love trades. They're so much more fun that free agent signings because there's more to analyze and there's that "I'm betting what you're going to give me is better than what I'm going to give you" challenge aspect.)

3. Pursuing Lowrie and Smith. A thing that should happen but definitely won't so I don't even know why I'm bringing it up: the Yankees should look into a Jed Lowrie and Dom Smith trade. Ken Rosenthal (subs. req'd) and Ken Davidoff have reported throughout the offseason that the Mets want to unload Lowrie's contract and are willing to use Smith as a sweetener in a trade. Lowrie is owed $12M in real money this coming year but it's a $10M luxury tax hit, and he could slot into the super utility infielder role the Yankees envisioned for DJ LeMahieu last year. There are ways to mitigate his poor defense at shortstop -- the Yankees could start Lowrie at shortstop on days Gerrit Cole, a fly ball and strikeout pitcher, starts, for example -- and Thairo Estrada or Tyler Wade loom should Gleyber Torres miss an extended period of time. A knee injury limited Lowrie to only nine pinch-hitting appearances last year, all after rosters expanded in September, so the medicals will have to check out, but he is one year removed from a .267/.358/.448 (123 wRC+) batting line with 23 homers and strong strikeout (18.8%) and walk (11.5%) rates. There's a chance the switch-hitting Lowrie could be a very useful role player with good health. A good "tenth man," so to speak. As for Smith, he's the real prize. The 24-year-old managed a .282/.355/.525 (133 wRC+) batting line with 11 homers in 197 plate appearances around a foot injury last year. He is capital-B Blocked at first base by Pete Alonso, and while Smith has played some outfield, he's a disaster out there, and the Mets are not short on corner outfielders anyway. He's a former top prospect and a left-handed hitter with big pull power but also the strength and hitting savvy to drive the ball the other way (2017-19 spray chart) ...

... and he's a sneaky great defender too. Certainly better than Mike Ford and Luke Voit. With the 26th roster spot, the Yankees could carry Smith as a part-time first baseman and part-time DH, and I think there's 400-something plate appearances available in that role. Voit has been great as a Yankee overall but Smith is four and a half years younger and I don't think it's unreasonable to believe he will be the better first base option from, say, 2021-24. This all boils down to acquiring a good young player at a discount because his team wants to save money. The Yankees hardly need another DH going into 2020 -- Ford, Miguel Andujar (if healthy), Clint Frazier, and Giancarlo Stanton are DH candidates -- but Smith is available right now, not at some undetermined point in the future when the Yankees need a DH (or first baseman). To get him, it might be now or never. Take on Lowrie's contract and use him as a role player for a year, get Smith as a sweetener, and give up little in return. That sets the Yankees up with Lowrie, Smith, Kyle Higashioka, and Mike Tauchman on their four-man bench, and, if Andujar is not ready to DH on Opening Day, Smith slides into the starting lineup and someone else joins the bench. Works for me. Two obvious obstacles exist. First, the money probably doesn't work for the Yankees. Lowrie's contract wouldn't fit under the $248M third luxury tax threshold even with a full J.A. Happ salary dump. And second, the Mets are loathe to make trades with the Yankees. The inferiority complex is very real. The Mets wouldn't even agree to a Jay Bruce salary dump trade at the 2017 trade deadline. They sent him to the Indians instead. Would they really risk Smith turning into a very good player across town, even to unload Lowrie's salary? (Imagine Smith becoming a better player than Alonso long-term. Oy vey.) From the Yankees perspective, the idea would be take Lowrie's money to get Smith, and not give up much in return. A fringe prospect or two. I don't think the Mets would go for that. I think they'd sooner trade Lowrie and Smith to another team for nothing in particular just to ensure they don't help the Yankees. It sounds dumb, I know, but that's how the Mets operate. Squint your eyes and you can see Lowrie and Smith helping the Yankees in 2020 and then Smith beyond that. In reality, there is little chance a trade comes together.

4. Three-batter minimum rule. Although it has not yet been officially announced, MLB will adopt the new three-batter minimum rule this coming season. New pitchers entering the game must face at least three batters or get the final out of the inning, so you could bring in a lefty specialist to get one out, as long as it's the last out of the inning. If he doesn't get the out, he has to stay in to face the next batter (or two). The one or two-batter specialist has been fading away for some time now -- there were 1,110 one-batter appearances in 2019, down from 1,411 five years ago -- and the Yankees themselves have gotten away from specialists. The numbers:

Blame Cory Gearrin and Tyler Lyons for a good chunk of the uptick in one and two-batter appearances from 2018 to 2019. Aaron Boone used them as righty and lefty specialists, respectively, in September quite often. Even still, the trend is downward, as it is all around baseball. New York's core bullpeners have been very good against righties and lefties the last three years ...

• Zack Britton: .272 wOBA vs. LHB and .275 wOBA vs. RHB
• Aroldis Chapman: .237 wOBA vs. LHB and .250 wOBA vs. RHB
• Chad Green: .265 wOBA vs. LHB and .266 wOBA vs. RHB
• Tommy Kahnle: .297 wOBA vs. LHB and .270 wOBA vs. RHB

... with one exception: Adam Ottavino. Over the last three seasons Ottavino has held righties to a .197/.278/.339 (.270 wOBA) batting line with 34.2% strikeouts and 13.1% walks. Against lefties, it's a .205/.339/.368 (.304 wOBA) line with 27.1% strikeouts and 14.8% walks. The split doesn't seem significant, but an outlier 2018 performance is skewing things. Ottavino has generally been weak against lefties in recent years:

• 2016: .256/.370/.410 (.346 wOBA) with 19.6 K% and 13.0 BB%
• 2017: .209/.346/.552 (.377 wOBA) with 24.7 K% and 13.6 BB%
• 2018: .179/.319/.241 (.252 wOBA) with 32.4 K% and 15.1 BB%
• 2019: .241/.361/.392 (.317 wOBA) with 21.7 K% and 15.5 BB%

Ottavino faced twice as many righties as lefties last season -- he gave up three of his five homers to lefties -- and Boone talks all the time about finding the right "lanes" for his relievers (i.e. the right matchups). The Yankees are very aware of Ottavino's platoon split. That's why he was mostly a righty specialist in the postseason, albeit ineffectively. Boone had him penciled in as his go-to weapon against Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Nelson Cruz, and George Springer, and that's exactly when the Yankees should've used one of the best right-on-right weapons in the game. It just didn't work out. I suspect the result of the new three-batter minimum rule, at least in Year 1, will be specialists facing more hitters of the opposite hand rather than fewer specialists. I think teams will be willing to trade one bad matchup for one or two good matchups, at least in certain situations. Think a lefty specialist facing a righty sandwiched between two lefties rather than being removed right away. In Ottavino's case, expect him to face more lefties this season rather than make fewer appearances. The Yankees aren't going to let one bad matchup against Rafael Devers stop them from using Ottavino against Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, are they? They shouldn't. Boone is very good at matching up with Ottavino and Kahnle in the sixth and seventh innings and that will continue. They'll have Ottavino in the right "lane." The three-batter minimum means Ottavino will be stuck facing a lefty at inopportune times throughout the season, that's inevitable, but the Yankees and Boone are good enough with their matchups that I don't think it'll be a big number of bad matchups. The three-batter rule is something the Yankees should be able to navigate pretty easily with their core relievers. Ottavino's the one guy who has shown an unfortunate platoon split over the years.

5. Triple-A rotation. Later this month I'm going to dig into the projected Triple-A Scranton roster just to see what's what. It's something I did each year at RAB (here's the 2019 edition) and it's worth continuing here. The Triple-A team is important! Ideally, it's a taxi squad for the big league team. In some cases, like last year, it's so much more. Those depth players have to be stashed somewhere. For now, I just want to look at the projected RailRiders rotation. The current starting pitching depth chart currently breaks down into these tiers:

1. RHP Gerrit Cole

2-4. RHP Luis Severino
2-4. LHP James Paxton
2-4. RHP Masahiro Tanaka

5. RHP Domingo German (suspended)
6. LHP J.A. Happ (trade candidate)
7. LHP Jordan Montgomery

8-9. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
8-9. RHP Mike King

10-13. RHP Deivi Garcia
10-13. RHP Nick Nelson
10-13. RHP Brody Koerner
10-13. RHP Albert Abreu

Should Happ get traded (I think that's likely), Montgomery is the logical candidate to step in as the No. 5 starter while German is suspended, though I bet the Yankees stretch King and Loaisiga out in Spring Training and hold a fifth starter competition. I have no problem with that. Nothing wrong with letting young players push each other. Loaisiga's injury history is so long and ugly that I wish the Yankees would just put him in the bullpen full-time, and get whatever they can out of him before he blows out entirely. Harsh, I know, but that's the way it goes in this sport sometimes. Loaisiga's dealt with a fairly significant arm injury each of the last four seasons. His body is telling us it can't handle a starter's workload, so put him in the bullpen and get what you can while you can. The stuff is awfully good ...

... and there's no shame in being relegated to a relief role these days. Loaisiga appeared in four of the team's nine postseason games -- he seemed to jump Luis Cessa in the pecking order -- which could indicate Aaron Boone and the Yankees trust him and plan to keep him in the bullpen going forward. I have no problem with stretching him out in Spring Training. Long-term, I'd like to cross him off the rotation depth chart and stick him in the bullpen. Assuming Happ gets traded and Montgomery steps in as the fifth starter, and Loaisiga opens the season in the big league bullpen (there's a spot for him), that leaves the bottom five guys on the depth chart for the Triple-A Scranton rotation, with 2017 first round pick Clarke Schmidt looming as an early-to-midseason promotion candidate (he made five appearances with Double-A Trenton last year, postseason included) and righties Brian Keller and Nick Green serving as deep depth. They're the "oh crap a bunch of guys got hurt in Spring Training and Scranton needs starters" starters. Garcia will undoubtedly be on a workload limit this coming season, presumably Abreu as well, and it's possible Nelson or (more likely) Abreu will land in the bullpen at some point. Abreu is entering his final minor league option year and things haven't come together as a starter yet. A midseason shift to a relief role a la Dellin Betances in 2013 could be in the cards. For now, Abreu's a starter. Even with German suspended and Happ likely to be traded, the rotation depth chart above is solid and mostly prospect laden. I still want the Yankees to sign a veteran Triple-A innings guy and I expect they will. A David Hale type, basically, though Hale spent much of last year in the MLB bullpen (and was good!). Garcia & Co. are going to have workload limits and you don't have to try all that hard to see King in the big league bullpen. The Yankees currently have two open bullpen spots and they tend to take their best arms, meaning it could be King and Loaisiga come Opening Day, thinning the rotation depth chart. Hale is still a free agent, so the Yankees could bring him back. If not him, then someone who checks all the analytic boxes and the Yankees believe can improve with some tweaks, like Hale last year. In a perfect world the Triple-A Scranton rotation will feature Abreu, Garcia, King, Nelson, and Schmidt a few weeks into the new season. That'll mean everyone is healthy and Schmidt continued carving up Double-A hitters.

6. The Cuban Ohtani defects. Oscar Colas, dubbed the Cuban Ohtani for his two-way prowess, has defected and will seek to sign with an MLB team, reports Jeff Passan. It will be weeks and likely months before Colas can actually sign -- he must establish residency and be unblocked by the Office of Foreign Assets Control before MLB will declare him eligible to sign -- but he has defected. The Cuban government gives select players permission to play overseas and Colas has spent the last three years with the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks in Japan, mostly with their minor league squad. He went 5-for-18 (.278) with one home run in seven games with the big league team last year. Here's video of the dinger. Kinda fun that he has the high leg kick and hesitation you often see with Asian hitters. Colas never took the mound with the Hawks in an official game. Minor league games and scrimmages only. Here's some old video of him pitching. Please note he's wearing No. 144. (Let him wear it in MLB, cowards.) Cuban players seem to have a special brand of hype and the while "Cuban Ohtani" thing is definitely overselling Colas' pitching ability -- Ohtani threw 160.2 innings with a 2.24 ERA and 196 strikeouts for the Nippon Ham Fighters at Colas' age -- he's reportedly been up to 95 mph from the left side, so the arm strength is there. There's not much information about Colas available otherwise. He has pop and throws hard, and that's about all we know right now. Because the process to become eligible to sign will take weeks, and because his age (turned 21 in September) subjects him to the international hard cap system, bet on Colas waiting until the 2020-21 international signing period opens on July 2nd to sign. Clubs will have their full bonus pool available at that point -- pretty much every team has spent their 2019-20 bonus pool already -- and a bidding war can ensue. The Yankees will have a small bonus pool to start with given their market size, plus they have to forfeit $1M in bonus pool space as compensation for signing Gerrit Cole, so they'll be at a disadvantage when time comes to pursue Colas. It's been a long time since the Yankees signed a big name Cuban prospect. They usually target younger Cuban players like righty Osiel Rodriguez and shortstop Alex Vargas, who signed as 16-year-olds in recent years, rather than splurge for the big name. I don't expect that to change with Colas. The team's history with this market combined with their bonus pool situation suggests the Yankees will not be a serious player. We'll see what happens in the coming weeks, but that's my two cents right now. (Remember Victor Victor Mesa, the big name Cuban outfielder the Marlins signed last offseason? He hit .235/.274/.263 for a 59 wRC+ in 116 games at High-A and Double-A last year. Yikes!)

7. Yankees sign Herrera. The Yankees have signed utility man Rosell Herrera to a minor league contract, according to Chris Hilburn-Trenkle. He has big league time, so I assume he received an invitation to Spring Training. Herrera had some prospect shine back in the day -- Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranked him the 86th best prospect in the game in 2014 -- but it never came together, and the Yankees will be his fifth organization in four years. Last season Herrera, now 27, hit .200/.288/.314 (63 wRC+) in 119 plate appearances as a bench guy with the Marlins. He played every position except pitcher, catcher, and first base. The contact quality numbers aren't great -- Herrera has below-average exit velocity (87.0 mph) and hard-hit rates (31.4%) in 421 career big league plate appearances -- but a switch-hitter who can play pretty much anywhere and has wheels is a useful minor league depth piece. If nothing else, Triple-A Scranton can plug him in at any position to cover for whoever gets called up the big leagues in a given week. Every team makes minor league signings like this every offseason and usually they don't amount to much. Oftentimes we end up complaining the guy is playing too much when he gets called up to cover for an injury. That said, this is the organization that coaxed nearly 800 plate appearances worth of .301/.358/.523 from Mike Tauchman and Gio Urshela last year, so every Yankees' minor league signing now comes with an inherent "let's see what they have planned for him" caveat. Chances are Herrera will wind up a nondescript depth player we forget about in a few years, if not a few weeks, because that's usually how it goes. He is in what are typically a player's peak years though, and he was regarded as one of the better prospects in game not too long ago, so ... maybe? 

8. Rapid fire thoughts. Daniel Hudson, arguably the best free agent reliever still on the board, returned to the Nationals on a two-year contract worth $11M yesterday. I wrote about Hudson as a trade deadline target at least once and hey, that worked out pretty well for the Nationals. As a free agent though, I'm totally cool with passing on a soon-to-be 33-year-old two-time Tommy John surgery guy. Low cost rental trade? Sign me up. Two-year free agent contract? Ehhhh ... the Nationals also signed Eric Thames to what amounts to a one-year deal worth $4M yesterday. I mentioned him as a possible lefty bat candidate for the Yankees last week. One year and $4M is a reasonable contract for Thames and I would've been cool with the Yankees giving him that, but I'm not heartbroken over missing out. I think Matt Joyce will give you roughly the same production for less money, and I don't think the Yankees are planning to go more than a minor league deal with a non-roster invite for a lefty bat anyway ... Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranked every team's draft performance in the 2010s and the Yankees placed 28th with +30.6 WAR, most of which comes from Aaron Judge. The analysis as presented is essentially comparing each team's 2010-15 drafts because most players drafted since then are still in the minors, so it's flawed, but it doesn't change the fact the Yankees didn't get much from their early-decade drafts. They gave up picks to sign free agents and whiffed badly on some top selections (Dante Bichette Jr., Cito Culver, Ty Hensley, etc.). Without Judge, those early-decade drafts would look an awful lot worse ... and finally, the arbitration salary filing deadline is this Friday. The Yankees have nine arbitration-eligible players on the roster and the filing deadline means there will be deals struck this week. The Yankees typically sign all their players before the deadline, though there have been a few exceptions in recent years (Luis Severino last year, Dellin Betances in 2017, Aroldis Chapman in 2016). Maybe Judge will push for something more than his $6.4M projected salary? Otherwise I don't anticipate the Yankees having a hard time getting their arbitration-eligible players locked up, and, once that happens, we'll have a little more clarity regarding the luxury tax payroll.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)