December 20th, 2019: Cole, Panik, Gardner, Adams, Voit, Ellsbury, Mailbag

The Yankees announced their key Spring Training dates yesterday. Pitchers and catchers will report on Wednesday, Feb. 12th, and position players on Monday, Feb. 17th. Here's the Grapefruit League schedule. The Yankees will play a pair of exhibition games against the Blue Jays at Olympic Stadium in Montreal on March 23rd and 24th. Really looking forward to that. Should be fun. Anyway, here are today's thoughts as I wonder whether anyone with the Yankees knows the Death Star blew up (twice!).

1. Cole's press conference. First impressions matter and wow did Gerrit Cole ace his earlier this week. He said all the right things at the podium during his introductory press conference -- "I'm here. I've always been here," while holding the sign was a great touch -- and was even better during the off-stage session with reporters afterward. He was relaxed and spoke intelligently, authentic and without cliches, funny with casual swearing, he told great stories, and was impressive all the way around. He even thanked Marvin Miller and Curt Flood. Who's the last player to do that in a press setting? The man is comfortable in his own skin, if nothing else. I knew Cole was a good talker from All-Star Game media days and the last two postseasons, but those were only brief chats. Based on Wednesday, he's as good as any player I've been around when it comes to dealing with the media, and that's not nothing in New York. Press conferences can be bland and scripted. The off-stage session is where guys usually open up a little and Cole complained about all the losing in Pittsburgh and said all the right things about wanting to win with the Yankees -- somebody put "pressure is a privilege" on a t-shirt already -- but also broke down in detail what makes him a great pitcher. He spoke about the adjustment from a two-seamer with the Pirates to a four-seamer with the Astros, changing his grip to get more spin, improving the effectiveness of both his fastball and slider through tunneling, his delivery keys, all sorts of things, and he did it in a way that wasn't boring shop talk. He's an interesting dude. "If you're going to do it, it needs to be a guy like this. He's a special human being," Hal Steinbrenner said, referring to giving out a $324 million contract. The Yankees signed Cole to win a World Series, not to go from 103 wins to 108 wins, and everyone knows that creates pressure and expectations. Cole turned down many millions from the Yankees as their 2008 first round pick and carried that around with him at UCLA, and came out as the No. 1 pick in the country three years later. That No. 1 tag created more expectations and he's living up to it now. Playing here is different than playing anywhere else, but man, he certainly sounded like a guy who knows what's expected of him and what it takes to remain among the best in the game. Great introductory press conferences don't always equal great on-field results, but Cole is arguably the best pitcher in the world right now, and Wednesday's little peek behind the curtain showed there's much more to him than a big fastball. He's a thinking man's pitcher and my hunch is he'll be a major asset in the clubhouse. "I came eight outs away from getting a ring (this year). I feel like I could see the light under the door and then it was slammed shut in our face. I'm as hungry as ever to finish that journey, finish that challenge. In my opinion there'd be no better place to do it than New York," Cole said.

2. Cole's opt-out. Ken Rosenthal has a previously unreported detail regarding Gerrit Cole's opt-out clause. The opt-out comes after Year 5 and, if Cole uses it, the Yankees can void the opt-out by exercising a one-year club option worth $36M, turning it into a ten-year deal. CC Sabathia and Aroldis Chapman both leveraged their opt-outs into a one-year extension at a higher salary than the average annual value of their contract at the time, and you don't have to try all that hard to see a similar scenario playing out with Cole down the road. Rather than negotiate that extension in five years, the two sides did it now. It's set at the same average annual value of the base nine-year contract. This doesn't change a whole lot, really. If Cole is still effective enough to opt out in five years -- he'd leave four years and $145M on the table at age 34 -- the Yankees will pick up the club option to void the opt out, and that'll be that. It's hard for me to see a scenario in which Cole is good enough to opt out, but the Yankees don't want to keep him. I suppose the team could call his bluff and let him test the market, but I dunno. Either way, this is a very long ways off, so let's worry about it then. Cole is very, very good and the Yankees have a lot of games to win between now and the opt-out coming into play. Worry about it when the time comes and not a second sooner.

3. Panik rumor. According to Buster Olney, the Yankees have "discussed" signing free agent infielder and New York native Joe Panik. Panik hit .235/.310/.317 (70 wRC+) in 103 games with the Giants this year, got released in August, then hooked on with the Mets and hit a cromulent .277/.333/.404 (99 wRC+) in 39 games. He's batted injuries, including concussion issues, and ineffectiveness the last few years (76 wRC+ from 2017-18), and the contact quality is terrible:

Olney says the Yankees are looking for a left-handed bat but gosh, give me a good righty bat over Panik's lefty bat any day of the week. Panik has played second base exclusively at the big league level (that's not true, he did play one game at first base a few years ago) and you have to go back to his minor league days for the last time he played the left side of the infield. A left-handed bat to replace Didi Gregorius on the middle infield would be swell. I don't think Panik's that guy though. There's no harm in a minor league contract, so if he's willing to take one, by all means, sign him up. Maybe the Yankees can work their magic and turn him into a .300/.370/.450 hitter. Next year's Gio Urshela, basically. I can't imagine kicking someone off the 40-man roster to clear a spot for Panik though. You have to go back to 2017 for the last time he was healthy or good, nevermind simultaneously. There's no such thing as a bad minor league contract, so, like I said, sign him as depth and stash him in Triple-A. The inability to play shortstop leads me to believe the Yankees do not see him as a viable bench option. They need a true backup shortstop and Panik ain't it.

4. Gardner's power. The Yankees have re-signed Brett Gardner to play center field because, well, what else were they supposed to do? They need an interim center fielder while Aaron Hicks is sidelined and Gardner was the best available in free agency, plus he's a longtime Yankee who fits the team's needs (lefty bat, speed, defense, etc.) well. Gardner authored a .251/.325/.503 (115 wRC+) batting line with a career high 28 homers this past season. His previous career high was 21 homers in 2017 and he's never hit more than 17 in any other season. The rocket ball undoubtedly contributed to those home runs (I mean, come on) but it should be noted Gardner had a pretty significant shift in his batted ball profile this past season. Specifically, he pulled the ball in the air more often, something that rewards left-handed hitters in Yankee Stadium and leads to more power in general. A graph:

Based on the graph, Gardner reached his "pulled fly balls" peak late in the season, and, not coincidentally, he hit 10 homers in September. Literally led the American League in homers in September (well, tied with George Springer and Jorge Soler). Prior to that Gardner had hit nine home runs in May 2017 and seven in July 2014, and never more than five in any other month in his career. Then bam, 10 in September 2019, plus one more in October for good measure. Thank the rocket ball and thank his newfound tendency to pull the ball in the air. The question now: is this repeatable? Is this a learned skill or baseball randomness at play? The uptick in pull rate could be a sign Gardner is cheating against velocity and starting his bat early, which wouldn't be surprising at his age, but we don't know whether that is actually the case. There's always a chance a 36-year-old player falls off a cliff, especially one who plays as hard as Gardner and puts his body through so much. If it happens, what can you do? The Yankees will adjust when the time comes. Last year's power output was definitely rocket ball aided to some degree. Gardner also adjusted his batted ball profile in a way that is conducive to power, so maybe it wasn't all a rocket ball fluke. Hopefully it continues next year. Would be cool. If nothing else, it's good to know those 28 homers weren't all the result of the baseball. There were tangible changes behind the power uptick as well. 

5. Adams designated. Not surprisingly, Chance Adams was designated for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot for Gerrit Cole. I was hoping the Yankees would hang on to him and try him in the bullpen, but the 40-man roster is packed, and there was no other obvious player to drop. The Yankees have another five days remaining to trade, release, or waive Adams and I'd bet on a trade. He's still only 25 and the prospect shine isn't too far in the rear-view mirror, plus he has an option remaining and can be sent to Triple-A next season without passing through waivers. Also, Adams is a spin rate darling ...

• Fastball: 2,413 rpm (MLB average: 2,275 rpm)
• Curveball: 2,853 rpm (MLB average: 2,518 rpm)
• Slider: 2,934 rpm (MLB average: 2,412 rpm)

... and I am certain some team will see that and believe they can unlock his potential. I was hoping it would be the Yankees, but whatever. Adams is a sure bet to get claimed on waivers and, because of that, I expect the Yankees to trade him instead. They're not going to get much in return -- players who have been designated for assignment never bring back good returns -- but they'll get something. Maybe international bonus pool money? That's what they got for Nestor Cortes, and Cortes was far more effective at the MLB level this year than Adams has ever been, previous prospect stock be damned. The Marlins have had a thing for ex-Yankees during the Derek Jeter/Gary Denbo era -- Miami recently signed Gosuke Katoh as a minor league free agent -- so they could be a possibility. The Angels love spin rate guys and needs arms. GM Billy Eppler has a thing for former big name prospects. The Orioles? They're run by a bunch of ex-Astros front office guys and the Astros are all about spin rate. Perhaps that'll carry over to Baltimore. Wherever he winds up, the bet here is the Yankees trade Adams before the end of the weekend. They have until Wednesday to make a trade but they're not going to drag this into the holidays. Adams was always overrated a bit because the stats exceeded the scouting report, but he did have legitimate big league starter potential. The stuff has backed up the last two years though, and now he's essentially a reclamation project. In the past, he's someone the Yankees would've found a way to keep. Now they have so much talent on the 40-man roster that they have no choice but to move on. So it goes. (The Yankees still need to clear a 40-man spot for Brett Gardner. Ben Heller, Jonathan Holder, and Stephen Tarpley would seem to be most in danger, but who knows at this point.)    

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner confirmed their initial offer to Gerrit Cole was eight years, not seven as initially reported, and they put the ninth year on the table as early as they did because they didn't want talks to drag on. They believed the Angels and/or Dodgers would eventually get to nine years, so they tried to blow Cole and Scott Boras away. "All things being equal -- West Coast vs. East Coast -- would we leave that to a close call? Or strategically (offer the ninth year) now, that it would separate us now from the pack? By doing so we might move ahead of people's decision-making and force them to say yes," Cashman said. Good move, I'd say ... at Cole's press conference, we got our first look at the Nike swoosh logo on the home pinstripes and:

I don't mind it. I know purists will hate it but I don't mind it. I reckon the swoosh will blend into the background before long and you won't even notice it. It'll just be part of the uniform, like the New Era logo on the side of caps. That was added a few years ago, people hated it, and now it's just kinda there and not a big deal. Andrew Marchand says MLB's deal with Nike is worth over $1 billion across 10 years, so the swoosh isn't going away anytime soon. Either learn to live with it or get mad about something you have no power to change ... Cole will indeed wear his familiar No. 45 and Luke Voit says he's switching to No. 59, his brother's football number at West Point. Cole wouldn't say what he gave Voit though, only because he wasn't sure whether Voit is okay with it being made public. Former bench coach Josh Bard wore No. 59 the last two years and do-it-all coach Rob Thomson the 12 years before that. The last player to wear No. 59 was *drum roll* Juan Rivera from 2002-03 ... I thought it was interesting assistant GM Mike Fishman was on the dais during Cole's press conference. That's a first. Usually it's assistant GM Jean Afterman. Turns out Afternoon is moving back to California for family reasons, according to Joel Sherman. She will remain with the Yankees in the same capacity and work remotely. She just won't be around as often, which I guess means more face time for Fishman. He more or less built the team's analytics wing from the ground up and has gained more prominence in the organization in recent years ... and finally, Jacoby Ellsbury, Scott Boras, and the MLBPA have officially filed their grievance against the Yankees, reports Ron Blum. The Yankees are seeking to convert Ellsbury's contract into non-guaranteed (i.e. not pay him) because they say he received medical treatment without their permission. Ellsbury, Boras, and the union were always going to a file a grievance. Now it's done. Just a step in the process.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Jonas asks: What would have been a comparable trade offer from the Yankees for Corey Kluber? Would you have open to acquiring him?

The Indians traded Kluber for a two years of a fourth outfielder -- Delino DeShields Jr. has a career 76 wRC+ and is roughly a +1 WAR player thanks to his glove -- and six years of a top bullpen prospect in Emmanuel Clase and his 100 mph cutter. Even if you think Clase is the next Dellin Betances, that's really all you could get for Kluber? Teams have to be worried about his health. Kluber isn't that expensive. I don't get it otherwise.

There's no good apples-to-apples Yankees equivalent for this trade. Mike Tauchman has five years of control remaining and his 2019 was far better than anything DeShields has done in his career. The Yankees don't have a Clase either, meaning a high-end MLB ready bullpen prospect. Maybe Albert Abreu fits that bill? Or Mike King? Chad Green is essentially what the Indians hope Clase becomes, but he only has three years of control remaining.

Tauchman and Abreu/King for Kluber is the kinda thing that gets laughed at on a message board, and yet Kluber was traded for DeShields and Clase. Weird. In a vacuum, yes, I would have been open to acquiring Kluber even while acknowledging there seems to be concerns about his health. The Yankees can't fit Kluber and his $17.5M salary under the $248M third luxury tax threshold though, so forget it. Give me Gerrit Cole over Kluber, no questions asked.

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Brian asks: Mike, it seemed like the Yankees were already historically light on left handed HR threats, and with Bird and Didi gone, they’ve gone further in that direction. Are they dismissing “handedness”? Are there any left handed mashers that make sense for that 26th roster spot? Or do we cross our fingers and hope Ford, Tauchman and Gardy are enough?  Or is “handedness” no longer a concern? 

At the Winter Meetings assistant GM Mike Fishman told George King the Yankees look for the best players regardless of handedness. “Our lineup is very right-handed. Ultimately, we are trying to find the best players. If it can balance the lineup, even better. It’s good to balance the lineup with another lefty," he said.

Despite their right-handedness the Yankees had the fourth best AVG (.265), sixth best OBP (.336), second best SLG (.484), and third best wRC+ (115) against righties this past season. Guys like Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, and Gleyber Torres mashed all pitchers. Giancarlo Stanton has historically as well, though he was hurt pretty much all season.

Overall, I don't think being too right-handed is a problem, though it can be in specific games, like a postseason matchup against Justin Verlander. Another lefty bat would be nice and that's one reason why I wanted the Yankees to re-sign Didi Gregorius. He knows how to use the short porch and he doesn't strike out much. Would've been a good fit. Shrug.

A few weeks ago I wrote about Corey Dickerson and he's my preferred lefty bat target. He can share left field and DH duty with Stanton. Matt Joyce crushes righties and could fill the same role as Dickerson. Jason Kipnis? He's a lefty pull hitter who can play second and the outfield. Scooter Gennett was awful this year (44 wRC+) but is versatile and could be a bounceback candidate.

Brett Gardner and Mike Tauchman (out of options) are the only left-handed hitters who are locks to be on the Opening Day roster. Mike Ford could wind up back in Triple-A and Aaron Hicks is months away from returning. Adding another lefty bat would be nice. I look forward to the Yankees trading for Sir Didi at the deadline after the Phillies fall out of the race.

Bonus Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

C.J. asks: Whenever I see a luxury tax calculation for the Yankees or any other team, there is that $18MM or so included for insurance, 40-man roster expenses, etc. Is there any chance the players' union could get that number taken out of the luxury tax calculations in the next CBA? Seems like that extra money could be used to spend on players if it didn't count against the luxury tax.

This would seem to be an obvious goal for the MLBPA. Player benefit costs have counted against the luxury tax payroll since the dawn of the luxury tax -- this isn't a recent Tony Clark era development -- and it's a significant amount. The player payroll portion of the luxury tax is effectively $10M to $15M less than the threshold because benefits count.

The MLBPA can argue that, because every team pays into the benefits fund equally and it's a shared cost, the highest spending teams are unfairly punished. Most teams are far away from the threshold and operate in real dollars, not luxury tax dollars. Why should teams at or above the threshold have their spending limited by something every team pays anyway?

Do I expect MLB to agree to drop benefits from the luxury tax calculation? No. It's a way for owners to limit costs and I don't expect them to give an inch on that. Also, from a baseball perspective, small market owners can argue a rule change wouldn't help them, and would only lead to more competitive imbalance. The MLBPA should push for it. I don't expect it to happen though.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)