December 13th, 2019: Gardner, Romine, Hader, Cole, Rule 5 Draft, Mailbag

(I accidentally hit publish while writing this post yesterday afternoon, so I hope you enjoyed the partial preview that hit your inbox before I took the post down.) 

Happy Friday the 13th. Gerrit Cole's a Yankee. It's pretty cool. Now that Brett Gardner has re-signed (more on that in a second), I feel like the Yankees could do nothing the rest of the winter and be in great shape next season. I don't want them to do that, that would be boring, but it goes to show how well set up they are right now. Let's get to today's thoughts. 

1. The Gardy party rages on. As expected, Brett Gardner is returning to the Yankees. The two sides agreed to a one-year contract worth $12.5M guaranteed yesterday. There's also a club option for 2021. The timing suggests the Yankees got down to business with Gardner as soon as they wrapped up the Gerrit Cole deal. The breakdown:

• 2020: $2M signing bonus plus $8M salary
• 2021: $10M club option or $2.5M buyout (so a $7.5M decision)
• $12.5M luxury tax hit in 2020
• $7.5M luxury tax hit in 2021 if option is exercised
• $0 luxury tax hit in 2021 if option is declined

Gardner has made it no secret he wants to finish his career in pinstripes -- "I've always been open about wanting to play my whole career here. I hope I get the opportunity to do that," he said after the ALCS -- and this contract makes it likely he will do exactly that. The Yankees could've leveraged Gardner's desire to return into a better deal, but they treated him fairly, and that contract is perfectly reasonable for a 36-year-old league average-ish hitter with above-average defense and baserunning. I don't expect Gardner to hit 28 home runs again, but I expect him to be his typical +3 WAR self next season, with much of his value coming in the field. At age 36, there's always a chance his game collapses completely, and if that happens, what can you do? Deal with it when the time comes. The Yankees need a center fielder while Aaron Hicks rehabs his elbow and Gardner was rather easily the best center field capable outfielder on the free agent market. It was either him or Kevin Pillar, who last posted a .300 OBP in 2017. The signing means the Yankees have about $5M to spend under the $248M third luxury tax threshold assuming they dump J.A. Happ and his entire $17M salary, which seems likely, though I guess it's not set in stone (and it hasn't happened yet either). A Gardner reunion has felt inevitable and now it is official without actually being official. The Yankees haven't announced the signing yet and they still need to clear a 40-man roster spot, but it's a done deal. Gardner is back on a sensible contract and the Yankees have their center fielder until Hicks returns, and they retain an important clubhouse leader in the wake of CC Sabathia's retirement and Didi Gregorius' departure. A win-win deal. "He’s significant in so many ways. He’s been on the team longer than anyone else and the constant that he is means a lot to the organization, as well as the production on the field. He’s coming off one of his best seasons. Not just the additional power he had last year but the continued excellent defense that he’s displayed throughout his career. He’s a big part of our team," assistant GM Mike Fishman told Marly Rivera.

2. Romine departs. Austin Romine has joined sparring partner Miguel Cabrera with the Tigers. It's a one-year deal worth $4.125M, according to Joel Sherman. That's about double what I would've been comfortable paying Romine and I think it's about double what the Yankees were comfortable paying Romine too. They traditionally do not spend much on backup catchers, and if there is truly only $5M or so to spend under the $248M third luxury tax threshold following the Brett Gardner re-signing (and J.A. Happ salary dump), I totally get not spending most of it on a backup catcher who ideally won't play much because Gary Sanchez is one of the top catchers in the game. Also, one year and a shade over $4M tells me no team saw Romine as a viable starter. He probably would've gotten two years in that case. Catching prospect Jake Rogers arrived late last year and I assume the rebuilding Tigers plan to see what they have in him next season, so Romine is essentially there to share time behind the plate, provide a little clubhouse leadership, and provide depth in case Rogers has to go back to Triple-A. One year and $4M or so is a part-time catcher's contract. It's only a one-year deal, but Romine gets the biggest payday of his career -- he made $3.705M in his three arbitration years combined -- and this is probably his best path to semi-regular playing time. I hope it works out for him and he can land another nice contract next winter. As for the Yankees, I think they're set on Kyle Higashioka as Sanchez's backup because he's cheap, has some pop, and rates very well as a pitch-framer. Earlier this week they were connected to free agent Martin Maldonado, Gerrit Cole's personal catcher with the Astros in the second half this past season, but again, the Yankees historically have not spent much on backup catchers and I don't see that changing anytime soon. Higashioka and a veteran non-roster guy (maybe Maldonado will take a minor league deal?) is likely the backup catcher plan heading into Spring Training. I'm fine with it. I think Higashioka will emerge as a pleasant surprise before long, especially because expectations seem to be so low.

3. Hader rumor. According to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req'd), the Yankees have been the "most active pursuer" of Brewers relief ace Josh Hader. Hader is said to be on the block and I assume it is for two reasons. One, the free agent market is short on high-end relievers and the Brewers want to be opportunistic. Perhaps some team will offer a big prospect package because they can't simply sign an elite closer or setup man. And two, Milwaukee is reportedly short on cash. MLBTR projects Hader to make $4.6M in his first of four years of arbitration as a Super Two next year, though there's a "special accomplishment" clause in the Collective Bargaining Agreement that allows his representatives to compare him to any reliever in arbitration, not just those at his service time level. Hader's camp will argue he qualifies as a "special accomplishment" player because he's a two-time All-Star and a two-time winner of the NL Reliever of the Year award. His actual 2020 salary could be quite a bit above the $4.6M projection. Anyway, Hader is excellent. A jerk, but excellent. His last two seasons:

The home run rate jumps out and it's easy to blame it on the rocket ball, though that's only part of it. Hader's exit velocity (86.1 mph to 90.4 mph) and hard-hit rate (31.8% to 42.0%) allowed both took big steps back this past season, and his already low ground ball rate dropped (28.9% to 22.0%), so opponents hit the ball harder and in the air more often against him, and that equals more homers. Hader has given up 24 home runs the last two seasons and 23 have come on his fastball, which also has one of the highest whiffs-per-swing rates in baseball at nearly 40%. It's not often hitters catch up to the fastball, but, when they do, it goes a long way. Earlier this week I mentioned the Yankees' trade deadline pursuit of controllable relievers (Ken Giles, Mychal Givens, Brad Hand) made me wonder whether they have some money earmarked for a bullpen addition this winter, and now we're hearing this Hader rumor. In addition to that, Jon Heyman says the Yankees had interest in Blake Treinen before he took one year and $10M from the Dodgers. There's a big difference between signing Treinen and trading for Hader though. One guy is available for nothing but money. The other guy would presumably require a significant prospect package. The Nationals gave up a top 100 prospect (Jesus Luzardo), another strong prospect (Sheldon Neuse), and a big league roster player (Treinen) to get three and a half years of Sean Doolittle a few years ago. Four years of Hader might cost Jordan Montgomery, Deivi Garcia, and another good prospect. My hunch is the Yankees were in on Hader (and Treinen) only as a backup plan in case they missed out on Gerrit Cole. Cole signing elsewhere would have left a lot of money burning a hole in the their pocket and left the pitching staff in need of reinforcement. We've seen the Yankees do the "we can't get a starter so let's bolster the bullpen instead" thing before. Once Stephen Strasburg signed, Plan B behind Cole might've been spending $20M annually on a starter like Madison Bumgarner or Hyun-Jin Ryu, and trading for Hader to shorten the game on the back end. Unless the Yankees are willing to blow through the $248M third luxury tax threshold -- Hader's potential status as a "special accomplishment" player means the Yankees would not be able to fit him under the $248M threshold even with a full J.A. Happ salary dump -- I don't see them as a serious suitor for Hader now. I think it was a fallback plan. (For the umpteenth time, if the Yankees are going to add a reliever this offseason, just re-sign Dellin Betances.)

4. Cole's opt-out. I didn't say anything about Gerrit Cole's opt-out the other day but I should have. Cole can opt out following Year 5 and Ken Rosenthal says he'd leave about $145M on the table, which indicates the $324M is spread out evenly across the nine years. The deal isn't front or back-loaded. These days most elite free agents get an opt-out -- as far as I know neither Stephen Strasburg nor Anthony Rendon received one, though Strasburg became a free agent because he opted out of the seven-year, $175M contract he signed four years ago -- so I just see it as the cost of doing business. The opt-out is so far away too that I don't see any sense in worrying about it. Five years is an eternity in baseball, and, if Cole is in position to consider using the opt-out (or leveraging it into an extension) in five years, that will be good news for the Yankees overall, because it will mean Cole remains a great pitcher. How good will a just turned 34-year-old pitcher have to be to consider walking away from four years and $145M? Very, very good. The opt-out would've had more headache potential had it come after Year 3 like CC Sabathia's. That's close enough that we could reasonably assume Cole will still be in his prime and among the game's best pitchers. Five years though? Eh. Five years ago Jake Arrieta and John Lackey were among the top seven pitchers in WAR. A lot can change between now and then (a year ago at this time it didn't seem likely Strasburg would opt out). The opt-out is just part of doing business these days, and it's so far away that I wouldn't worry about it right now.

5. Rule 5 Draft recap. For the eighth consecutive offseason, the Yankees did not make a selection in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft yesterday. They haven't made a Rule 5 Draft pick since taking lefty Cesar Cabral and righty Brad Meyers in 2011. The Yankees did lose a player though. Right-hander Rony Garcia went to the Tigers with the first pick of the Rule 5 Draft. Here's what Eric Longenhagen has to say about Garcia:

He sits 91-94 and touches 95 with pretty significant fastball spin for that velo range — about 2400 rpm on average — but because Garcia has a lower arm slot, the pitch doesn’t have the kind of lift that would miss bats. The arm slot and Garcia’s above-average, two-plane breaking ball make him especially tough on righties, who he held to a .197/.273/.356 line in 2019. The changeup needs to get better if Garcia is going to continue to start, but Detroit is becoming quite good at implementing coherent pitch design, so maybe it will, or perhaps the Tigers will find a way to give him a relevant second breaking ball. 

Longenhagen didn't mention Rony's cutter, which has been his calling card for a few years, though it could just be an oversight. Garcia, 22 next week, had a 4.44 ERA (4.21 FIP) with 23.3% strikeouts and 8.5% walks in 105.1 innings in Double-A this past season. The Tigers have no pitching whatsoever, so I think Garcia has a pretty good chance to stick as a long reliever next season as long as he pitches competently. Not even well, just competently. (For what it's worth, ZiPS projects a 5.68 ERA in 117.1 innings.) Garcia had little path to the big leagues with the Yankees, so this is a great opportunity for him. I wish him luck. In addition to Garcia, the Yankees also lost four players in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft:

• RHP Hobie Harris (Blue Jays) 
• RHP Will Carter (White Sox)
• RHP Raynel Espinal (Red Sox)
• IF Wendell Rijo (Braves)

I remember watching Carter throw 97 mph sinkers with Short Season Staten Island after being a 14th round pick in 2015. He's been mostly hurt and ineffective the last few years. Espinal had Tommy John surgery in July and he'll spend most of next year rehabbing. The Red Sox must like him enough to stash him until 2021, when he'll be 29. The Yankees did bring Espinal to camp as a non-roster player in 2018 and 2019, so maybe there's something there. Harris is a fairly generic reliever and Rijo is a utility man who hit .258/.325/.438 (111 wRC+) while bouncing around three levels this past season. There are no conditions with picks in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft. Those four players belong to their new team now. There's no getting them back. Garcia could still come back should he bomb with the Tigers, but I think he'll stick. Here are all the Major League phase Rule 5 Draft picks. It is a collection of long shots and deep sleepers, as always. Unless Garcia shocks the baseball world and turns into a gem, nothing of consequence happened with the Yankees yesterday.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Michael asks: I know everyone is annoyed Did went to Philly, but I think we need to give Cashman the benefit of the doubt. I assume they know something that we don't (health, defensive regression, etc.) Looking back, who was the last Yankee free agent that left for another team who you regret not re-signing? I go all the way back to Andy Pettitte in 2004, but even then, there were legitimate questions about his elbow. I'm not including Cano because most agreed his contract was an overpay. Am I missing someone?

There are definitely reasons to move on from Didi Gregorius (and Dellin Betances as well). Gregorius turns 30 in February and he is a low on-base hitter who might be slipping defensively. Betances turns 32 in March and just missed nearly an entire season with a shoulder injury, then hurt his Achilles. Also, he's been control-challenged throughout his career. There are plenty of reasons to walk away from both guys, but I still don't like it.

As for the question, I suppose the correct answer is Lance Lynn? The Yankees never made an effort to retain him though. He's the last free agent the Yankees let get away they might regret. Even then, Lynn was only a short-term Yankee, so he doesn't really count. Robinson Cano's contract made walking away an easy decision. David Robertson was replaced by Andrew Miller. Curtis Granderson replaced Johnny Damon. They weren't missed.

Looking back over the years, Hideki Matsui is probably the only free agent the Yankees regret letting go since Pettitte in 2004. Matsui signed with the Angels in 2010 and hit .274/.361/.459 (126 wRC+) with 21 homers while the Yankees got nothing from his replacement, Nick Johnson. Marcus Thames stepped in at DH for a bit, and eventually the Yankees went out and got Lance Berkman to fill the DH spot. Even then, Matsui was 36 with bad knees. Letting him go was understandable.

As much as I bitch and moan about the Yankees doing this or not doing that, they know what they're doing. I mean, duh. Brian Cashman and his staff have built a 100-win powerhouse and they've spun straw into gold so many times (Aaron Hicks, Mike Tauchman, Gio Urshela, Luke Voit, etc.) that we have to say it's an organizational skill, not luck. All my griping is done as an outsider and biased observer. I trust Cashman & Co. implicitly.

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Gregg asks: In running down your potential Didi replacements, I was wondering about another old friend that could fill the role. What about Starlin Castro? I know he hasn't played shortstop in a few years regularly, but he probably could fill in, in a pinch? He had a good year last year for Miami and I can't imagine will cost very much. I haven't heard him mentioned anywhere yet. What do you think?

Fun fact: Castro is still only 29. Feels like the guy has been around forever. Starlin the Marlin hit .270/.300/.436 (91 wRC+) with 22 home runs last season, so it was the quintessential Castro season plus a few extra rocket ball homers. The Marlins moved him from second base to third base at midseason to clear a path for prospect Isan Diaz.

Castro has not played shortstop regularly since 2015 and, when he did, he was pretty bad at it. I wouldn't count on him as anything more than an emergency option there. Starlin is over 6,000 (!) plate appearances into his career now. We know he's an average at best hitter and a mediocre defender, and a bad baserunner with a knack for boneheaded mistakes. I would pass on him as a Didi Gregorius replacement. Been there, done that.

Supposedly the Nationals have Castro on their radar as an Anthony Rendon replacement, otherwise it's been a quiet offseason for him. Now that he's through that long-term deal he signed with the Cubs way back when, I wonder whether a team in Japan or Korea might try to sign him. He's likely looking at a journeyman future in MLB.

Bonus Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Barry asks: Hi Mike, with the Yankees losing $1 million of their bonus money, does that also limit the amount they’re allowed to trade for or are they still allowed to trade for up to 60% (apparently it went from 75% to 60% this year) of their original bonus pool?

The Yankees lose $1M in international bonus money in addition to forfeiting two draft picks to sign Gerrit Cole. Such is life. The Yankees can still trade for the additional 60%, but 60% of the smaller pool, not the original pool. The penalty effective costs them $1.6M in bonus pool money ($1M penalty plus the 60% of that $1M they can no longer trade for).

The bonus pools increased about 6% this year and the Yankees had a $5.4M pool this signing period. Another 6% raise gets us to $5.7M next year, then subtract out the $1M penalty and we're at $4.7M. Trade for an extra 60% and the pool maxes out at $7.52M.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)