December 6th, 2019: Cole, Free Agents, Rotation, Adams, Hall of Fame, Kim, Mailbag

It has been brought to my attention that embedded GIFs do not work in the Patreon email or in the mobile app. I had no idea and I'm sorry I didn't know about it sooner. That's a Patreon problem, not a me problem. The Patreon content management system doesn't even have a way to embed a YouTube video into a text post, which I hate. From now on I'll include a link to the GIF so you can view it that way. You'll have to click away from the post, which sucks, but it is the best (only) option until Patreon fixes their GIF problem (and lets me embed YouTube videos and preview posts before publishing, among other things). Anyway, here are today's thoughts with the Winter Meetings approaching.

1. Cole pursuit. The Yankees, specifically Brian Cashman, Aaron Boone, new pitching coach Matt Blake, assistant general manager Mike Fishman (per James Wagner), and not officially a Yankees employee Andy Pettitte (per Buster Olney) met with Gerrit Cole (and Scott Boras) this past Tuesday and soon thereafter Jon Heyman reported the two sides did not specifically discuss money. Rather the Yankees worked to sell him on the organization, and being a Yankee and everything that comes with that, because both sides know "the dollars will be there." (Mark Feinsand reports that all applies to Wednesday's meeting with Stephen Strasburg as well.) Then, last night, Jeff Passan reported the Yankees have made Cole "their clear offseason priority and have ownership-level approval to offer him a record-setting deal," which is awfully exciting! As a reminder, here are the richest pitching contracts in history:

Total Guarantee
1. David Price, Red Sox: 7 years and $217M
2. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: 7 years and $215M
3. Max Scherzer, Nationals: 7 years and $210M
4. Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks: 6 years and $206.5M
5. Justin Verlander, Tigers: 7 years and $180M

Average Annual Value
1. Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks: $34.42M (2016-21)
2. Justin Verlander, Astros: $33M (2020-21)
3. David Price, Red Sox: $31M (2016-22)
4. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: $31M (2019-21)
5. Max Scherzer, Nationals: $30M (2015-21)

With these monster free agent contracts, it's not always as simple as making the biggest offer (though that obvious helps) because the player knows he's getting paid either way, and in some cases because the player has already made a fortune (Strasburg has banked over $100M in his career to date, Cole comes from a wealthy family). All the other stuff matters too. Selling the player on the team, the city, the ballpark, etc. is an important step in the process. CC Sabathia has said it wasn't until Cashman left the Winter Meetings and visited him at his home that he became convinced he should sign with the Yankees. That commitment and personal touch matters. "That sealed the deal. If Cash didn’t fly to California, I probably wouldn’t have signed (with the Yankees)," Sabathia told George King earlier this week. For what it's worth, Heyman says the Yankees were told Cole has "no West Coast bias," which could be true or could be a way to put heat on the Angels and Dodgers. (Free agent says something to increase his leverage. News at 11.) Either way, it's good to hear "the dollars will be there" and that ownership has pre-approved a record contract because a) that's what it'll take to land Cole, and b) we heard absolutely nothing to that effect with Patrick Corbin, Bryce Harper, or Manny Machado. All we heard last offseason was that the Yankees liked those guys, but only at their price. It is entirely possible Boras leaked that "the dollars will be there" quote to intensify the bidding war, but Heyman is the most plugging in Boras reporter there is, and we didn't hear anything like that about Harper (another Boras client) last offseason. Passan's report sure sounds like the Yankees reminding the other Cole suitors of their financial might. Back in the day they did that by offering Sabathia the then-richest pitching contract in history on Day 1 of free agency. This time they did it through the media. The tone of the Cole pursuit is very different than anything we heard about Corbin, Harper, or Machado last year. Maybe that doesn't really mean anything and I'm grasping at straws. I guess we'll find out. Everything we've heard so far leads me to believe the Yankees have sincere interest and will pay top dollar for Cole. This isn't another dog and pony show a la Corbin and Machado visiting Yankee Stadium last winter. (As for Strasburg, it seems very clear the Yankees consider him Plan B. Strasburg is obviously very good and we'd all take him in a heartbeat. Cole is better though, he's also 18 months younger than Strasburg, and he doesn't have nearly as scary an injury history. I think it's easy to understand why the Yankees and every other team would prioritize Cole.)

2. Other free agent rumors. Earlier this week the Phillies gave Zack Wheeler five years and $118M. Reportedly he turned down a larger offer from the White Sox to stay on the East Coast. I thought Wheeler would end up with five years and closer to $100M, but what's an extra $3.6M annually between friends? I had Wheeler as the third best starter on the free agent market and he reminds me of A.J. Burnett circa 2008-09. Undeniably excellent stuff, has answered questions about his durability in recent years, and everyone has that "we can be the team to unlock his potential" belief. The velocity and spin rates are top notch -- Ben Clemens recently noted pitch selection when ahead in the count is a place Wheeler could improve -- he's reasonably young (29) and he has top prospect pedigree. Would I have wanted the Yankees to give Wheeler five years and $118M? Eh, probably not, but if they struck out on Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, I'm not sure they would've had a choice. That's off the table now anyway. Andy Martino indicates the Yankees never did get seriously involved in the Wheeler race. They instead focused on their Cole and Strasburg meetings as Wheeler's free agency came to a close earlier this week. Martino hears the Yankees are "involved to some degree" with Madison Bumgarner, who's market will presumably heat up now that Wheeler is off the board, and George King says they also have interest in Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel. Would the Yankees really give Keuchel the multi-year contract he'll presumably receive this offseason after only half-heartedly pursuing him on a half-a-year contract in June? I think it's unlikely. That strikes me as an "oh no we missed out on literally everyone else" last resort, and even then I don't think it would happen. Ryu's pretty awesome and I'd take him on a short-term deal (two or three years?) over Bumgarner on a longer-term deal (five or six years?). That's my two cents on the non-Cole/Strasburg free agent pitchers. Martino says there "remains optimism" about a reunion with Brett Gardner even though a deal hasn't been worked out yet. Otherwise, there is not much going on with the Yankees at the moment. The focus is on Cole (and Strasburg), as it should be. My only worry is they could miss out on the rest of the pitching market while Scott Boras drags things out with his top two clients, as he is known to do. Wait until Wheeler, Bumgarner, et al are signed because that'll make the Yankees that much more desperate to land Cole, you know? That's right out of the Boras playbook. Wheeler is already off the board. So too are Cole Hamels and Kyle Gibson, not that they are the high-end starters the Yankees crave. They were available options though, and now they're not. I also kinda sorta had Dylan Bundy in mind as a possible change-of-scenery trade target for the fifth starter's spot, and he was recently traded to the Angels. My sense is -- and I could be completely wrong here -- the Yankees will wait until after Cole signs to move on to other offseason business, including re-signing Gardner. The Yankees can multi-task, of course, but Cole will tie up a significant chunk of present and future payroll, and the team will want to know whether they have to pivot to other free agent starters before doing anything else.

3. The future of the rotation. With all due respect to guys like Zack Greinke and David Price, Gerrit Cole is the best starting pitcher to hit free agency since Max Scherzer five years ago. Prime-aged pitchers this good rarely become available for nothing but cash (and draft picks and international bonus money), and, when they do become available, the Yankees should always be involved. Their window is as open as it's going to get and Cole would help the 2020 Yankees immensely. There are also two other reasons to sign Cole (or Stephen Strasburg) this winter. One, James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka will become free agents next offseason, and those are two of the team's three best starters. We all love Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt, but gosh, having to replace Paxton and Tanaka in one offseason would be a tall order. Cole would give the Yankees rotation protection -- I hesitate to call it "protection" but I can't think of a better word at the moment -- and that high-end building block going forward no matter what happens with Paxton and Tanaka, or post-injury Luis Severino. And two, the upcoming free agent pitching classes aren't very good. Here are the notable starters scheduled to become free agents the next three offseasons with their age on Opening Day of the first year of their new contract:

• 2020-21: Paxton (32), Tanaka (32), Trevor Bauer (30), Mike Minor (33), Jose Quintana (32), Robbie Ray (29), Marcus Stroman (29)
• 2021-22: Greinke (38), Scherzer (37), Clayton Kershaw (34), Corey Kluber (36), Jon Lester (38), Lance McCullers Jr. (29), Charlie Morton (39), Eduardo Rodriguez (29), Noah Syndergaard (29), Justin Verlander (39)
• 2022-23: Price (37), Jose Berrios (28), Matt Boyd (32), Mike Clevinger (32), Sean Manaea (31)

Forecasting future free agent classes is tricky because a lot can and will change over the next few seasons, usually because pitchers get hurt or sign extensions. Cole's a good example of things going the other way. Two years ago at this time did anyone consider him a candidate to receive the largest pitching contract in history? Not really. We all knew he had the talent to be that kind of pitcher, but he hadn't pitch it together yet, and was looking more like a great stuff/mediocre results guy than a no-doubt ace. Free agent classes change over time, but I think you can see the point I'm trying to make. Aside from Syndergaard and maybe Berrios (and maybe Rodriguez), there doesn't appear to be anyone with a chance to hit free agency as a no-doubt ace before their 30th birthday in the next few years, and even those guys have to take the next step between now and then. The upcoming free agent pitching classes will feature a lot of big names in their mid-to-late-30s, some good but not truly elite starters in their age 28-32 seasons, and apparently Bauer each year because he says he's only signing one-year contracts the rest of his career. Want an ace? Want one of the best pitchers in the game in the prime of his career? This offseason is likely the last chance the Yankees will have to acquire such a pitcher while their core players (Severino, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, etc.) are all in their primes together. There is no "well, if we miss out on Cole (or Strasburg) this offseason, we can just sign that comparable pitcher next offseason" fallback plan. After missing out on so many high-end starters the last two or three years, the Yankees are at the point where it is now or never when it comes to adding a bona fide ace to their core group. They've backed themselves into this corner. I think they realize that and will pursue Cole (and, if necessary, Strasburg) with appropriate aggressiveness. Cashman & Co. didn't fly all the way out to California this week just to do due diligence.

4. Adams' velocity. A few weeks ago I wrote that, if at all possible with the cramped 40-man roster, I would like the Yankees to keep Chance Adams and try him in the bullpen full-time next year. Don't even bother bringing him to Spring Training as a starter. Have him spend the winter preparing for life as a reliever. Adams has top of the line spin rates on his slider and curveball, and if the move to the bullpen brings back some velocity, it could make a world of difference for him. Buried at the bottom of this Sweeny Murti piece is an Adams update:

Adams has survived on the 40-man roster, and I’ve heard that his early off-season work with Sam Briend, the pitching coordinator hired away from Driveline earlier this year, has shown an uptick in velocity again.  

Exciting! Possibly meaningless, but hey, it's something. Adams has averaged 92.1 mph with his four-seamer in the big leagues and he's never thrown a pitch higher than 95.2 mph. If the offseason work and shift to the bullpen can get him into the 94-95 mph range consistently, then yeah, he could be a real asset. Or maybe even just the next Luis Cessa as the cheap last guy in the bullpen for a few years. Adams has been so bad during his various (and brief) big league stints (8.18 ERA and 7.05 FIP in 33 innings) that it's very easy to write him off completely, I get it, but it wasn't too long ago that he was a well-regarded prospect, and he is still only 25. He's six months younger than righty Brooks Kriske, who was just added to the 40-man roster for Rule 5 Draft protection purposes. See what his velocity looks like when he reports to Spring Training and figure things out then. Worst case scenario is he is still not very good and the Yankees are right back where they are right now, with Adams being a non-factor. The 40-man situation is a real obstacle, however. The Yankees have a full 40-man roster and they haven't done anything this offseason. They still have to re-sign or replace Brett Gardner and add another starting pitcher at the absolute minimum. Space is tight and Adams is presumably on the chopping block. If he has to go to clear space for someone else, so be it. But, if the Yankees can figure out a way to keep him around, I'd be curious to see what Adams looks like in the bullpen. The report his velocity is up during offseason workouts is encouraging.

5. Modern Era ballot. A few years ago the Veterans Committee split into four "eras" committees, and this Sunday the Modern Era committee will announce their Hall of Fame selections. There are ten men on the ballot this year, including three former Yankees: Tommy John, Don Mattingly, and Thurman Munson. I think John belongs in the Hall of Fame. He was very good pitcher for a very (very) long time, and of course the procedure named after him has revolutionized the game. It has saved careers and livelihoods. John has said the surgery should really be named after Dr. Frank Jobe because Jobe came up with the entire ligament replacement idea and performed it. I say put them both in the Hall of Fame. The procedure has been that important to baseball history. There are 16 people on the Modern Era committee (12 votes needed for induction): Hall of Famers George Brett, Rod Carew, Dennis Eckersley, Eddie Murray, Ozzie Smith, and Robin Yount; executives Sandy Alderson, Dave Dombrowski, David Glass, Walt Jocketty, Doug Melvin, and Terry Ryan; and media members and historians Bill Center, Steve Hirdt, Jack O’Connell, and Tracy Ringolsby. When the Today's Game committee voted Harold Baines into the Hall of Fame last year, it was because Tony La Russa, his former manager with the White Sox, was on the committee and banged the table for him. There's no one on that committee to do that for Mattingly or Munson. Mattingly is an all-time fave but I don't think he belongs in the Hall of Fame. His peak was far too short. Blame the injuries. Munson did not even get through the screening process on some of the old Veteran Committee iterations earlier this century. He was on a Hall of Fame track before his tragic death and he played a lot of big postseason series against Brett's Royals and regular season games against Yount's Brewers, so maybe they'll go to bat for him the way La Russa went to bat for Baines. Given his time on the BBWAA's Hall of Fame ballot (never more than 15.5% of the vote and only one year over 9.5%) and the way he's barely made it onto the Veterans Committee ballots over the years, I don't think Munson is getting in. He and Mattingly are the two big name former Yankees on the ballot and I don't expect either to get in this weekend. It is what it is. Marvin Miller is on the ballot and his continued omission from the Hall of Fame is egregious, but I count six current or former owners and executives on the committee, so I don't think he gets the 12 votes necessary for induction. Owners and executives voting to put the man who helped the MLBPA rise to prominence in the Hall of Fame is one of those things that just isn't going to happen. I think Lou Whitaker would get in if the BBWAA had a chance to vote for him again. Enough time has passed -- Whitaker dropped off the ballot in his first year of eligibility in 2001 -- and the voting body has turned over enough that I think his excellent yet understated career would be better appreciated now than it was nearly two decades ago. The Modern Era committee voters are not exactly, uh, modern, so Whitaker's all-around brilliance may be overlooked. I hope he gets in though. He belongs. Also, Ted Simmons. What the hell? He's one of the 10 best catchers ever and catchers are woefully underrepresented in Cooperstown. There's only 18 of them in the Hall of Fame. Only third base (17) has fewer representatives. For what it's worth, Simmons is only barely ahead of Munson in Jay Jaffe's JAWS, so maybe I am underrating Munson's candidacy. Then again, his voting history speaks for itself, and it suggests Munson won't get in this year. My official prediction: Whitaker and Steve Garvey get voted in by the Modern Era committee this weekend. Whitaker because he deserves it, Garvey because these committees always seem to make a weird pick each year. (Garvey was a very good player for a very long time, but come on.)

6. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees are possibly coming to Amazon. According to Josh Kosman, the Yankees are working on a deal to stream select games on Amazon's Prime Video service as soon as next season, and you won't need a cable subscription. Kosman says the ultimate goal is to create a full season package for cord cutters, even those in-market in New York. MLB has controlled streaming rights league-wide basically since the dawn of the internet. They are now giving teams more control, however, so I imagine we'll see more arrangements like this in the future. As someone who is basically a Yankees viewing option away from cutting the cord, I eagerly await the future of in-market streaming ... earlier this week I noted MLB and the MLBPA are working on an agreement to begin opioid testing next season. MLBPA head Tony Clark has since told Steven Wine players who test positive will be put into a treatment program rather than suspended or otherwise disciplined. "We believe wholeheartedly, as we always have, that the treatment option and not discipline is the best route to go," he said. I'm glad to hear it. MLB has done some incredibly dumb and shortsighted stuff over the years and I would not have put suspending players for opioids past them ... the Doosan Bears are posting former KBO MVP Jae-Hwan Kim for MLB teams this offseason, according to Jee-Ho Yoo. Kim, 31, hit .334/.405/.657 with 44 home runs last year, but slipped all the way down to .283/.362/.434 with 15 homers this year. Yikes. Also, he's relegated to left field defensively, so I don't see a fit with the Yankees even though they could use another left-handed bat. Lefty Kwang-Hyun Kim and center fielder Shogo Akiyama are the two available Asian players who interest me this winter. The others (Kim the outfielder, infielder Ryosuke Kikuchi, outfielder Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, righty Shun Yamaguchi) don't really do anything for me ... the Yankees have hired yet another college coach for a minor league role. Former Los Angeles Valley College assistant coach Ari Adut announced on Twitter he has joined the Yankees as a minor league hitting coach. There is always a ton of turnover in the minor league coaching ranks each year, but the new guys are usually coaches from other organizations or former players breaking into coaching. Over the last 12 months or so, the Yankees have gone extremely heavy on college coaches, far moreso than at any point since I've been paying attention. It is in no way overstating things to say the player development staff is undergoing a complete overhaul ... MLB and the other 29 owners are really going to approve the sale of the Mets to a guy who was fined nearly $2 billion (!) for inside trading, aren't they? Welcoming criminals with open arms at the ownership level feels like a thing that maybe shouldn't happen. I dunno. Maybe I'm just old fashioned. 

Mailbag Question of the Week

Bob asks: In light of the reported $100 million offer received by Zack Wheeler, would it not be prudent for the Yankees to try and extend James Paxton now? 

Wheeler signed his $118M contract after this question was sent in. As i mentioned earlier, Paxton will be a free agent after next season, as will Masahiro Tanaka, so the Yankees have a lot of pitching potentially walking out the door. Shockingly few starting pitchers have signed extensions at the same service time level as Paxton the last five years:

• Danny Duffy: 5 years and $65M ($13M annually)
• Stephen Strasburg: 7 years and $175M ($25M annually)
• Josh Tomlin: 2 years and $5.5M ($2.75M annually)
• Rick Porcello: 4 years and $82.5M ($20.625M annually)

I don't think any of those help us project a potential Paxton extension. Duffy and Paxton are similar in that they are injury prone lefties who have flashed high-end ability, but Duffy signed his extension at 28 and Paxton turned 31 last month. Also, there's three years of inflation to consider (make of that what you will in MLB's current financial climate).

Paxton is projected to make $12.9M through arbitration next year. Given his age, his injury history, and his inconsistent track record, could the Yankees sell him on an additional three years and $15M per season? The total package would be four years and $58M from 2020-23. Add in a buyout of a fifth year a club option and we could push the guarantee to $60M. Given his injury history, Paxton might jump at the guaranteed payday.

Anyway, the question was not what a Paxton extension would look like, but whether it would be prudent to sign him. I say yes. Tanaka and Jacoby Ellsbury will be off the books after next season, so payroll space is coming. And, unless he blows out his arm, Paxton will have trade value on that extension. The Yankees could always trade him, if necessary.

I can understand being hesitant about signing Paxton long-term given his injury history and track record. If the Yankees truly believe they unlocked something in the second half this season, and/or that new pitching coach Matt Blake can take Paxton to another level, then I think they have to seriously consider extending him. High-end pitching is hard to acquire.

Extension season is typically February and March. That's when teams focus on locking up their guys. Presumably Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg will be signed by then, so the Yankees will have a clearer picture of their long-term payroll. If they sign Cole, they may simply let Paxton play the year out rather than tie up more post-2020 payroll.

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Robin asks: Which would you prefer? Cole and Montgomery/King or Strasburg and Wheeler for about the same money?

This question was also sent in before Zack Wheeler signed, so we're now operating under the assumption that Stephen Strasburg will receive roughly $118M less in total money than Gerrit Cole. So if Cole gets, say, $260M, Strasburg would get $142M. That seems unlikely to me, but let's roll with it for mailbag purposes.

Although Cole is the single best pitcher in this equation, Strasburg is really good too, and I think the drop off from Cole to Strasburg is considerably smaller than the improvement from Jordan Montgomery and Mike King to Wheeler. You know what? Let's check out some 2020 Steamer projections:

• Cole (+6.2 WAR) + Montgomery (+0.5 WAR) + King (+0.1 WAR) = +6.8 WAR
• Strasburg (+4.2 WAR) + Wheeler (+2.8 WAR) = +7.0 WAR

For all intents and purposes, the two options are equal (for 2020, anyway). Two important things to keep in mind. One, the Yankees would still have Montgomery and King even if they sign Strasburg and Wheeler, unless we're assuming they get traded in this hypothetical, which was not specified.

And two, Strasburg and Wheeler may get the same total money as Cole, but it will be distributed differently. Let's assume Cole gets $35M per year. We already know Wheeler is getting $23.6M per year. Strasburg is probably getting $30M per year. Option A will cost about $37M per year, Option B about $53.6M per year. The $16.6M annual difference could be used on something else.

To answer the question, I would take the Strasburg and Wheeler option if we're assuming they combine for the same total dollars as Cole. One elite and one every good pitcher is better than one elite pitcher. Strasburg is really good and not enough of a drop off from Cole for me to go with Cole and the kids. If the option was, say, Madison Bumgarner and Wheeler rather than Strasburg and Wheeler, I'd likely go with Cole and the kids.

Bonus Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Brad asks: After the Brewers trade for Luis Urias, what do you think of a trade for Orlando Arcia? Former top prospect who doesn’t seem to have a place on his current team sounds familiar. What do you think it would take/should the Yankees consider it?

I liked Arcia during his prospect days. He can really play shortstop, he has speed, and he's a fun high-energy player. The kid just hasn't hit though. Arcia owns a .243/.292/.360 (68 wRC+) batting line in nearly 1,700 big league plate appearances, and he was actually worse than that with the rocket ball this past season (.223/.283/.350 and 61 wRC+).

Arcia is only 25 and it wasn't too long ago that the Yankees acquired another slick-fielding 25-year-old shortstop with questions about his bat. Didi Gregorius worked out pretty well. Of course, he had the advantage of being a left-handed hitter in Yankee Stadium (Arcia is a righty hitter), but it would be the same idea.

Earlier this week the Brewers signed Arcia to a one-year contract worth $2.2M to avoid arbitration, and he will remain under team control through 2022. Also, he has a minor league option remaining, so the Yankees could acquire him, then send him down to get regular at-bats. That'd be a pricey Triple-A player, sure, but it is an available option.

Sending Arcia down for roughly two months (63 days to be exact) equals another year of team control. Also, he would get to work with Triple-A Scranton hitting coach Phil Plantier, who Gio Urshela has credited for helping him unlock his offensive potential. Maybe Plantier can work the same magic with Arcia? Could be cool.

Here's an idea: Jordan Montgomery for Arcia. Four years of a back-end starter coming off Tommy John surgery for three years of a shortstop who hasn't figured out how to hit. The Brewers desperately need pitching, so Montgomery would help. The Yankees need pitching more than a shortstop, but Arcia could fit long-term given DJ LeMahieu's contract status.

The Yankees gave up a promising young pitcher in Shane Greene to get Gregorius and I can not imagine the Brewers would give Arcia away. My guess is they'd only trade him for instant MLB roster help, not prospects. Would they take Mike King instead? Not sure. I do like the idea of Arcia though. He fits the "buy low on a talented young player" strategy.

Updated Mailbag Question of the Week

Last week I answered a question about possible outcomes for top outfield prospect Jasson Dominguez. Would I rather have a 50/50 chance Dominguez becomes Mike Trout (or flames out completely) or a 100% chance he becomes Bryce Harper, and I said Harper because, well, Harper is really good, and that's guaranteed production.

I hastily answered the question the morning it was posted, and the more I thought about, the more I realized I would take the 50/50 outcome. The odds Dominguez becomes a productive big leaguer are small just because that's how it is with 16-year-old kids. They're always more likely to flame out than become big leaguers. That's baseball.

The odds Dominguez becomes Trout are infinitesimal. I'd say the chances he develops into a player that good are less than 1% of 1%. In that case, getting a 50/50 chance at Trout is a massive improvement in best case scenario odds. Yeah, he might flame out completely, but I think there's a better than 50% chance of that happening anyway, so I'm not just getting a higher success rate, I'm getting a sky high best case scenario rate as well.

Harper is really good and I'd happily take that real world outcome for Dominguez. Given the choice in the mailbag question, I would rather take the 50/50 Trout option. Fortune favors the bold, so I am hereby updating my previous mailbag answer. My blog, my rules.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)