November 12th, 2019: Coaches, Betances, Dodgers, Pirates, Deivi, Minors

The GM Meetings began yesterday and Brian Cashman confirmed the Yankees have interest in Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, among others. "Of course we're going to talk to Strasburg. We’ll talk to Cole. We’ll talk to the higher end guys, clearly. We’ll also talk about some surprise guys, I’m sure," Cashman told Mark Feinsand. As far as I'm concerned, having interest in Cole and Strasburg is the bare minimum. The Yankees will get praise from me when they sign one of them and not a second sooner. Here are today's thoughts.

1. Coaching staff changes. Another day, another coaching change. Yesterday Sweeny Murti and Joel Sherman reported the Yankees have parted ways with bench coach Josh Bard. Brian Cashman later told Ken Davidoff that, over the summer, Bard informed the Yankees he would leave the team when his contract expired this offseason to find a job closer to his home in Colorado. That's a bummer. Bard is seen as a rising star in the coaching ranks given his front office experience (Dodgers) and familiarity with analytics, and ability to connect with players. I imagine he'll land on his feet soon enough. Quality control coach/infield coach Carlos Mendoza will take Bard's place (and continue as infield coach as well). This is the current coaching staff:

Harkey, Nevin, Pilittere, Thames, and Willits are expected to return, though Cashman told Davidoff the team is "still working through everything." Pilittere and Thames are beloved throughout the organization and Nevin is Boone's childhood friend. Safe to assume they are coming back. Harkey could leave to join his good friend Joe Girardi with the Phillies, but I feel like that would've happened already if it were going to happen. Then again, I didn't think we'd have to wait until mid-November to find out about a bench coach change, but here we are. Anyway, here's what I wrote about Blake and Swanson. "I felt I wanted to gravitate toward somebody that had a little bit more in-depth knowledge of some of the newer technology out there," Cashman told Erik Boland about the Blake hiring. Considering they won 103 games this year and there was no managerial change, the Yankees have made an awful lot changes to their coaching staff this winter. They've made changes at the minor league level too. Cashman told Dan Martin that Triple-A Scranton manager Jay Bell has left the organization to "pursue major league coaching positions," and North Iowa Area Community College baseball coach Brett DeGagne recently tweeted he is joining the Yankees as a minor league pitching coach. Also, director of minor league operations Hadi Raad has left the Yankees to become the Marlins pro scouting director, according to Lindsey Adler. Lots of changes this offseason, up and down the organization. More than I can ever remember in a single offseason without a managerial change or a change in farm system head. I don't know what it is, exactly, but it sure seems like there is an organizational philosophy shift underway. The Yankees are changing the way they do business at every level in the organization, most importantly at the MLB level. Kinda exciting! No idea of it'll work or if it's even a good thing, but I guess we'll find out soon enough. Now, about the training staff ... 

(In all seriousness, I would not expect any changes to the training staff or training programs to be announced. They never are. Feels like Cashman will be asked about them at some point though after all the injuries this year.)

2. Dellin's market. Folks, I am starting to worry Dellin Betances will sign with another team. My concern is possibly irrational -- it's very early in the offseason and there have been only a few rumors connecting any free agent to any team, though Brian Cashman did tell James Wagner he has been in touch with Dellin's agent -- but it does exist. Betances is an all-time personal favorite and my heart says he should be a Forever Yankee. At the same time, my head says he is a soon-to-be 32-year-old reliever who missed most of this past season with a shoulder injury -- the Achilles injury was a major bummer, but the shoulder is the greater long-term worry for me -- and wasn't blessed with even average command when he was at his peak. There are baseball reasons to move on from Betances. I don't care though. I want him back next season (and beyond). I'm willing to keep him a year too long than let him go a year too early, emotionally, kinda like CC Sabathia. Andy Martino says Dellin is expected to be fully recovered from the partial Achilles tear sometime next month and the Yankees are in a position where they don't have to count too much on Betances next season. They can let him complete his rehab properly with no need to rush back, and ease him back into action next year before really turning him loose in the second half. There is always room in the bullpen for another top arm -- we saw how quickly one little hiccup (i.e. Adam Ottavino's struggles) can derail the reliever-heavy plan in October -- and the Yankees already know Betances can handle everything about being a Yankee. He can handle the success, the failure, the intense high-leverage innings. The injuries sabotaged Dellin's free agent stock and I think a team is going to wind up getting a great deal with him. That team should be the Yankees. Betances fits everything the Yankees are about. He's a high velocity, high spin, high strikeout pitcher and he's handled all the off-the-field stuff well, even when the team president held court with reporters to trash him after an arbitration hearing a few years ago. Letting Dellin go would be a mistake. Homegrown Yankees who have an obvious place on the roster and will likely be available at a discount should not be signing with other teams.

3. Joc jams. One more center field alternative before the Yankees inevitably re-sign Brett Gardner: Joc Pederson. Pederson is one year away from free agency and the Dodgers traded both Yasiel Puig and Alex Wood (in the same deal) when they were a year away from free agency last year. Why? Because they had depth at those positions and wanted to get some prospects into their farm system after picking late in the first round for the better part of a decade. Los Angeles is still deep in outfielders -- even after trading Pederson they'd have Matt Beaty, Cody Bellinger, Kyle Garlick, Enrique Hernandez, A.J. Pollock, Chris Taylor, and Alex Verdugo to play the outfield -- and dealing Pederson to clear up the logjam and restock the farm system (and save money) makes sense in this dumb luxury tax era. (Jorge Castillo says a Joc trade is possible for luxury tax reasons.) Pederson turns only 28 in April and he hit .249/.339/.538 (127 wRC+) with 36 home runs last year, but the overall numbers only tell part of the story:

Pederson vs. RHP, 2019: .252/.349/.571 (137 wRC+)
Pederson vs. LHP, 2019: .224/.240/.265 (34 wRC+)

Pederson vs. RHP, 2017-19: .246/.343/.533 (134 wRC+)
Pederson vs. LHP, 2017-19: .199/.246/.291 (45 wRC+)

Pederson is very good against righties -- he hit all 36 homers against righties -- and pretty much unplayable against lefties, which makes him not too dissimilar from Gardner, really. Joc can still play a passable center field -- the Dodgers have moved him to the corners in deference to superior defenders in recent years -- plus he's a good baserunner and an A+ clubhouse guy. Pederson is projected to make $8.5M in his final trip through arbitration, which is about what the Yankees are going to pay Gardner. The Yankees would need to find a righty platoon partner -- how about platooning Joc with Clint Frazier, with Aaron Judge playing center those days? -- but Pederson offers big Yankee Stadium friendly left-handed power without huge dips in defense, baserunning, or even clubhouse matters. You'd get a reasonable facsimile of Gardner, only eight years younger. (Also, given his career to date, Joc is much less likely to see his power output dip significantly if the ball gets unjuiced than Gardner.) I'm not sure what the prospect package would look like -- the Dodgers typically target lower level pre-breakout guys and the Yankees have those in spades -- but I trust Brian Cashman & Co. to trade the right prospects. They have been really good at knowing who to keep and who to trade. Ultimately, this is all pointless because the Yankees are going to re-sign Gardner to play center field, and that's fine. And frankly, why trade for Pederson when you could keep your prospects and bring Gardner back? It's not like there would be significant luxury tax payroll savings here. Maybe Pederson is someone the Yankees look at next year when he's a free agent, Gardner's a year older, and we have more clarity about Aaron Hicks' recovery. Otherwise toss this one into the "good ideas that almost certainly will not happen" pile. Shrug.

4. Pirates as trade partners. The Pirates are the most dysfunctional team in baseball today. They've made multiple disastrous trades the last two years (Chris Archer, Gerrit Cole), trades that set small market franchises like Pittsburgh back years. Players (and coaches!) were fighting in the clubhouse this year. Manager Clint Hurdle was fired after the season, then a month later the team president was let go, then a week after that the GM was cut loose. Who waits a month to fire the GM after firing the manager? The Pirates, that's who. Anyway, Joel Sherman reports the Pirates are down to three finalists in their GM search, so I guess that means it'll wrap up soon. Once it does, it is expected Pittsburgh will tear things down and rebuild, not that they're rich in trade chips. Jameson Taillon will miss next season as he rehabs from his second Tommy John surgery, Felipe Vazquez might be going to prison, and Archer is nothing more than a reclamation project at this point. Realistically, I think there are four Pirates who make sense for the Yankees as trade targets: Josh Bell, Kyle Crick, Starling Marte, and Joe Musgrove. Marte could play center field while Aaron Hicks is sidelined and then slide over to left field, his former position, once Hicks returns. Musgrove is a decent enough back-end starter with good spin rates and a deep arsenal. I can't help but wonder whether getting away from the Pirates and their outdated pitch-to-contact approach could help Musgrove get to the next level. Crick is essentially the poor man's Dellin Betances. Throws very hard with great spin rates, but the strikeout (27.0%) and especially the walk (15.5%) rates leave you wanting more. I can see some team, maybe even the Yankees, believing they could fix Crick. Bell is the biggest prize. Pittsburgh's slugging first baseman authored a .277/.367/.569 (135 wRC+) batting line with 37 homers and better than average strikeout (19.2%) and walk (12.1%) rates in 2019. The Yankees are into exit velocity as an evaluation tool and Bell certainly checks that box:

Bell turned 27 in August, he's a switch-hitter, and he will remain under team control as an arbitration-eligible player through 2022. Also, he's a Scott Boras client, so the chances of a long-term extension with the Pirates are remote. Bell is worthy of the No. 3 lineup spot between Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, and he'd give the offense more left/right balance as a switch-hitter. The Yankees have a pretty good (and very cheap) first baseman in Luke Voit -- it can be easy to forget, but Voit hit .280/.393/.509 (140 wRC+) with 17 home runs in 78 games before the sports hernia derailed his season -- but I think Bell is the better player and more likely to remain an elite (or near elite) hitter going forward. Finding an upgrade at first base is hardly a priority this offseason, especially since Bell might truly only be a slight upgrade over Voit. But, if the Pirates put him on the market, the Yankees should check in. Who knows, maybe the Pirates would take a package built around Voit, who is cheaper than Bell and comes with two extra years of control, and expendable prospects like Albert Abreu and Estevan Florial. I mean, no one expected the Pirates to trade Cole for *gestures in Colin Moran's direction* that stuff. I don't think the next GM, whoever it ends up being, will want to start his tenure by trading the franchise's best player since peak Andrew McCutchen, and certainly not by trading him for pennies on the dollar. Who knows though? Maybe the pieces fit and a trade comes together. Probably not, but it is worth asking. Otherwise, I don't see many possible trade targets for the Yankees on the Pittsburgh roster. 

5. Deivi's slider. Overall, this was a kinda crummy year in the farm system. Nearly every one of the Yankees' top position player prospects (Antonio Cabello, Estevan Florial, Everson Pereira, Anthony Seigler) struggled, got hurt, or both. The No. 1 story in the system this season was, clearly, Deivi Garcia's rise. The 20-year-old threw 111.1 innings at three levels and finished with a 4.28 ERA (3.28 FIP) and a 34.0% strikeout rate. That includes a 3.66 ERA (1.89 FIP) and a 39.0% strikeout rate in 71.1 innings at High-A and Double-A. The 11.1% walk rate is an eyesore, so that's something that has to be improved, otherwise Garcia made very nice strides this year. Deivi was the No. 1 story in the system this season and the No. 1 story about the No. 1 story was Garcia developing what quickly became a very good slider. According to Coley Harvey, Garcia started tinkering with the pitch on his own in Spring Training, and the Yankees helped him refine it. Baseball America (subs. req'd) calls it a "future wipeout pitch" and Baseball Prospectus (subs. req'd) rates it a "plus" slider. At this time last year Deivi did not have the slider. He was a fastball/curveball guy with a promising changeup. Now he's added a slider that is drawing universal praise and is a true four-pitch pitcher. That's exciting. Here's the slider in action (GIF via Lucas Apostoleris):

The new slider changes Garcia's long-term outlook. It takes him from live-armed prospect who might belong in the bullpen to no-doubt starter with a chance to have a real impact. A quality third pitch makes all the difference in the world, and it's not like Garcia's changeup is a non-factor either. There's good velocity on the fastball, now two swing-and-miss breaking balls, and a changeup left-handed hitters have to respect. Having two quality breaking balls is such a huge weapon. Two breaking balls moving at different speeds and with different shapes can really give hitters problems. Deivi got punched in the mouth a bit in Triple-A this past season (5.40 ERA and 5.77 FIP) because it was the first time pitching with the rocket ball, and also because they were the best and most disciplined hitters he's ever faced. Garcia will turn only 21 in May and an extended stretch in the Triple-A rotation is almost certainly the best thing for him next year. Let him go out there every five days and learn how to get outs at that level, and further refine his command. I was a bit skeptical of Garcia the last year, year and a half, mostly because he is so tiny (5-foot-9!) and not blessed with the best command, but the stuff is so good and getting better. He's as good a candidate to not only have success at his size -- since MLB expanded in 1961, only 13 righties 5-foot-10 or shorter have been worth +10 WAR in their careers -- but really dominate. Deivi is not a finished product, and while I think he could out-stuff MLB hitters right now, he could clearly benefit from more time in Triple-A. I am much more excited about him now than I was coming into the season. That new slider is a game-changer. "I love that pitch. I love to throw it. The slider has been great, because now people got more pitches to think about. I've used it a couple of times, and the hitters don't know if it's the curveball or the fastball, and then it could be a slider coming. So that really helps," Garcia told Harvey. 

6. Prospect thoughts. Baseball America recently completed their annual look at the top 20 prospects in each minor league. Here's the landing page. The lists, scouting reports, and chats are all behind the paywall, so I can't give too much away, but there are a few players I wanted to touch on. Let's get to 'em.

RHP Alex Vizcaino (No. 13 in Low-A South Atlantic League)

Vizcaino's plus-plus, 90-91 mph changeup is a dastardly weapon, and it's hard with late drop. It looks like it's headed to the bottom of the strike zone before diving toward the dirt.

Vizcaino's 94-98 mph fastball give him a second plus pitch. The development of his inconsistent fringe-average slider could help him turn into a mid-rotation starter. It's bigger, slower (82-84 mph) and he doesn't show confidence to throw it in tough counts.

Four members of the Low-A Charleston rotation ranked in the Nos. 12-15 spots on the top 20 (RHP Roansy Contreras, RHP Alex Vizcaino, RHP Luis Gil, RHP Luis Medina in that order) and Vizcaino was this year's big riser. Contreras and Medina have been among the better prospects in the system for two years now and Gil quickly made a name for himself after coming over in the Jake Cave trade last spring. The Yankees signed Vizcaino four days before his 19th birthday in 2016, so he was an older international signing, and he didn't do anything remarkable in the first two and a half years of his pro career. This year the 22-year-old broke out with a 4.38 ERA (3.35 FIP) and very good strikeout (26.1%) and walk (7.8%) rates in 115 innings at the two Single-A levels. The breaking ball is not quite there yet, but gosh, a 94-98 mph fastball and a plus-plus changeup will take him places. Vizcaino is Rule 5 Draft eligible this winter and you'd really hate to lose him before seeing what he can do against Double-A hitters. There's a chance he could be a surprise 40-man roster addition before the protection deadline next Wednesday.

OF Canaan Smith (No. 20 in Low-A South Atlantic League)

Smith doesn't do much of anything pretty. He's already filled out and does not cut a sleek figure in the outfield. At the plate, sometimes he'll open up too early in his swing.

But Smith squares up pitch after pitch. Even when he steps in the bucket at the plate, his hands work well enough to drive the ball. He catches up to quality fastballs. Smith finished among the South Atlantic League's leaders in most offensive categories. He has above-average raw power, but he's best at hitting for average and getting on base.

Smith, 20, was seemingly the only position player prospect in the farm system to take a step forward this season. That's an exaggeration, but yeah, it was not a good year for hitters in the minors. Smith stood out and hit .307/.405/.465 (154 wRC+) with 11 homers and a 14.0% walk rate, fourth highest among full season league minor leaguers age 20 or younger. The scouting report goes on to note Smith is a "fringe-average" left fielder who may have to move to first base, so his value is tied up exclusively in his bat. He's going to have to hit and hit big to not only reach the big leagues, but stay in the big leagues. High-A Tampa should be a good test for Smith next year. The ballparks aren't as hitter friendly as they are in the Sally League, and he'll see more advanced pitchers too, inevitably including several top 2019 draftees. Smith put himself on the map this year though, for sure.

2B Ezequiel Duran (No. 7 in Short Season NY-Penn League)

While his approach at the plate needs work, Duran’s ability to drive the ball has impressed scouts and managers alike. He has worked to use the whole field and makes loud contact when he connects. According to sources, his average exit velocity was 91.9 mph, which would rank him in the top 20 among major league hitters.

Duran is sturdy and strong, but it shouldn’t hinder him from sticking up the middle. His fielding is such that he can be penciled in at shortstop from time to time—though he didn’t play short for Staten Island—but he fits better at second base with a solid arm.

Duran, who is still only 20, was a prospect darling last year, and the hype proved to arrive a year too early. He really struggled with Rookie Pulaski (48 wRC+ and 27.7 K%). This year though, everything kinda came together and he hit .256/.329/.496 (143 wRC+) with 13 homers in 66 games while being a full year younger than the average player in the league. The apparent defensive improvement is exciting as well. A year ago at this time it was not clear Duran would stay on the middle infield or even handle a move to third base. He was a prospect without a clear position. Now it sounds like he can stay at second base long-term, where his bat would fit best. Duran still needs to clean up some things (like this year's 27.8% strikeout rate), but you can't fake hitting the ball hard, and he does it pretty easily. That's a good carrying tool for any player, let alone a middle infielder.

OF Ryder Green (No. 17 in Rookie Appalachian League)

(He was) one of the better power/speed combos in the league. Managers praised Green’s plate discipline—he walked at a 9.8 percent clip—and he also developed a reputation for his advanced baseball knowledge, with a strong understanding of what to do in all game situations and consistently making the correct plays in the field.

Green did a nice job in all three outfield positions, though he’s likely a better fit for a corner outfield spot in the long term, but the biggest positive to take from Green’s 2019 season is the fact that he cut his strikeout rate significantly while playing against a higher level of competition.

The Yankees gave Green a $997,500 bonus as their third round pick last year, then he went out and hit .201 with a 36.8% strikeout rate in 26 rookie ball games in his pro debut. This season he managed a .262/.344/.444 (117 wRC+) batting line with eight homers and a 26.4% strikeout rate in 61 games. The strikeout rate is still high but it is much better than last year's. He cut his swing-and-miss rate from 37.8% (!) to 16.5% as well. At the time of the draft the 19-year-old Green was billed as a kid who had basically everything (power, speed, athleticism) except a hit tool. It's a very risky profile but also an exciting one because if the hit tool does click, you're talking +4 WAR in a hurry. Green is still a very long way from the big leagues, of course, but he took a bigger step forward this year than even I hoped he would. I'm excited to see how he does with Low-A Charleston next year.

C Antonio Gomez (No. 5 in Rookie Gulf Coast League)

Gomez has the tools to be an elite defensive catcher, starting with one of the best arms in the minors even though he’s still 17. It’s a 70 arm, with throws to second base in the upper 80s and pop times regularly in the 1.8s. His quick footwork and swift exchange help his arm play up even more, helping him erase 50 percent of basestealers.

He’s a solid blocker and receiver for his age as well, while his fluent English, intelligence and outgoing personality help him manage a pitching staff.

Well then. The Yankees gave Gomez a $600,000 bonus last summer and I don't remember reading anything about his defense being that good at the time. The bat is pretty good too -- Gomez hit .288/.351/.442 (126 wRC+) with 15.8% strikeout rate and the scouting report says he "can square up high-end velocity and does a good job driving the ball to the opposite field" -- but developing defensively is typically the biggest challenge for a young catcher, especially one as young as Gomez. Sounds like he is ahead of the curve. With Anthony Seigler and Josh Breaux both getting hurt this year -- last year's first and second round picks combined for 336 plate appearances in 2019 -- the catching pipeline isn't in great shape at the moment. It wasn't too long ago that the Yankees pumped out Francisco Cervelli, John Ryan Murphy, Austin Romine, and Gary Sanchez in a short period of time. The Yankees will have Sanchez for at least another three years, so that's good. Gomez sounds like a prospect who could be a factor at the catcher position in time. He's way ahead of the curve defensively for his age.

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