November 5th, 2019: Gregorius, Chapman, Free Agent Pitchers, Cole, Adams, Biggest Hits, Beltran, Swanson

The 2019-20 offseason is well underway and the Yankees have already dismissed their pitching coach and signed a player to an extension (they also removed Jake Barrett and Tyler Lyons from the 40-man roster yesterday). Been a busy few days. Only 99 more days until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. That doesn't sound so bad, does it? Here are today's thoughts.

1. No qualifying offer for Didi. The Yankees did not make Didi Gregorius the $17.8M qualifying offer prior to yesterday's deadline. I figured that would happen. Gregorius missed two months with Tommy John surgery this year and struggled when he did return, and he struck me as a real good candidate to accept the qualifying offer. Take the inflated salary, try to rebuild value in a (very) hitter friendly home ballpark next year, then give free agency a go next winter with no draft pick compensation attached. Sounded like a good plan. The Yankees didn't want to risk it. Declining to make Gregorius the qualifying offer tells us the team does not consider him worth that money and also that they didn't want to risk him accepting it and screwing up their 2020 payroll situation. The Yankees could still bring Gregorius back and I hope they do, because the more good players, the better. You don't have to try real hard to see Sir Didi bouncing back after a normal offseason as he gets further away from surgery. Yeah, the Yankees could slide Gleyber Torres to shortstop and install DJ LeMahieu at second base full-time, but why not bring Gregorius back too, and have a three-headed middle infield monster? Do you really want to be one injury away from Starting Shortstop Tyler Wade? I hope the Yankees have not closed the door on a Sir Didi reunion -- I don't believe they have, but I don't think they consider him a big priority this winter either -- and will try to re-sign him at a lower rate. The thing is, Gregorius is now that much more attractive to other teams because he won't cost them a draft pick. He is far and away the best shortstop on the free agent market. After him it's, uh, Jose Iglesias? Jordy Mercer? Any team looking for a shortstop upgrade (Brewers, Joe Girardi and the Phillies if they move Jean Segura to third, Twins if they move Jorge Polanco to second, Indians if they trade Francisco Lindor, etc.) will give Didi a call. I dunno. I guess I'm more bummed than I expected I would be that this could really be it for Gregorius in pinstripes, even though not giving him the qualifying offer was in no way surprising, and this entire situation was very predictable. It's just that, now that it actually happened ... damn.

2. Chapman's extension. As expected, Aroldis Chapman leveraged his opt-out clause into an extension. The Yankees added one year and $18M to the two years and $30M remaining on his contract, so it's a three-year deal worth $48M. Jon Heyman says Chapman's camp pushed for two additional years and Ron Blum says the deal includes a full no-trade clause. Under the original contract Chapman would've had a limited no-trade clause in 2020-21. Now he has full no-trade protection through 2022. Joel Sherman explains the luxury tax implications:

(The) average value on Chapman’s previous five-year, $86 million dollar pact was $17.2 million — and that is what the Yanks were charged toward the tax each of the past three years. But they paid Chapman $56 million over that time or $18.67 million per year. Thus, there is a true-up charge that must be accounted for between what the Yanks ultimately paid and what they were charged in the luxury tax ... That true-up means Chapman will cost the Yanks $17.5 million annually toward the luxury tax payroll for the next three years.

Three years and $48M is a perfectly reasonable contract for a reliever of Chapman's caliber. Craig Kimbrel signed a three-year deal worth $43M in June and two years ago Wade Davis signed a three-year deal worth $52M, and Chapman is better than both of them. Last month I said I would've called his bluff and let him opt out, and I stand by that. The red flags are obvious (32 in February, declining velocity) and I thought there was an opportunity to pull a David Robertson/Andrew Miller move by letting Chapman walk and signing Will Smith, but whatever. Ultimately, the Yankees are a much better team with Chapman in the bullpen than without, and they should be doing everything possible to maximize their current window. They've already wasted too much time farting around with resetting their luxury tax rate. At least they're spending money on an elite player here. And, if you're worried Chapman's new contract will prevent the Yankees from doing something else (i.e. sign Gerrit Cole), don't. If the Yankees are planning to use Chapman's extension as an excuse for passing on Cole (or whoever else), then chances are they would've come up with an excuse even if Chapman had left. The $17M fifth starter and $22M outfielder who hasn't played in two years seem like logical places to start. (I'm more worried about what the Chapman deal means for Dellin Betances than I do Cole.) It's not what I would've done but the new Chapman extension is fine. The team's chances of turning this window in a championship are that much better with him in the closer's role than without, ALCS walk-off homer notwithstanding.

3. Free agent pitching targets. Free agency officially opened yesterday but, like the regular season, free agency is a marathon, not a sprint. There is not a rash of signings on Day 1 of free agency in this sport. Especially not with the way teams are squeezing players these days. Anyway, with the market now open for business, I figured I'd rank my free agent starting pitching targets. I can't imagine too many people will quibble with this:

1. Gerrit Cole
(medium gap)
2. Stephen Strasburg (opted out of four years and $100M over the weekend)
(big gap)
3. Zack Wheeler
(big gap)
4. Madison Bumgarner
5. Hyun-Jin Ryu
6. Cole Hamels

I don't think Ryu will leave the Dodgers -- that's one of those perfect fit scenarios -- and I almost didn't include him, but he is a free agent, so I listed him. Clearly, Cole is the cream of the crop this winter. He is the best free agent starter to hit the market since Max Scherzer five years ago and he turned only 29 in September, so you're getting peak years. The guy brings four average or better swing-and-miss pitches to the table ...

• Fastball: 37.9% (MLB average: 21.9%)
• Slider: 39.9% (MLB average: 35.9%)
• Curveball: 31.7% (MLB average: 31.2%)
• Changeup: 41.2% (MLB average: 30.7%)

... and he checks every analytical box with his spin rate and spin efficiency and pitch usage and all that. Do I expect him to pitch to a mid-2.00 ERA/FIP with 300+ strikeouts again next year? No. No I do not. This was likely Cole's career year, but there is no reason to think he can't be an impact starter another few seasons, and that's exactly what the Yankees need right now. The bidding could reach $240M or so but I bet it's less than that, and I think all the chatter about $280M is a little outrageous. The current pitcher contract record is David Price at $217M and these records get broken incrementally. They don't get blown out of the water like Alex Rodriguez way back in the day. A-Rod was a special case and I don't see Cole doing anything like that. As for Strasburg, he is obviously very good and the Yankees should try to sign him (and Cole!), though my guess is he returns to the Nationals in short order. He is a year and a half older than Cole and has a scarier injury history. There has been research suggesting the new elbow ligament typically lasts about 800 innings and Strasburg is closing on 1,500 innings since Tommy John surgery. Every player is different -- A.J. Burnett threw over 2,200 innings following his Tommy John surgery at age 25 -- and maybe Strasburg is another exception. He has been to date. It is something to consider though and a valid reason to rank him behind Cole among free agent starters. I wrote about Wheeler at the trade deadline and everything I said then still applies now. He's an upside guy with great velocity, a deep repertoire, and big spin rates. He also answered questions about his durability by throwing 377.2 inning the last two years, the 12th most in baseball. Unlike most free agents, there is a real chance Wheeler's best years are still to come. I wouldn't want the Yankees to consider him Plan A this winter. That should be Cole, with Strasburg the Plan B. If Cole goes to the West Coast though, and Strasburg goes back to Washington, I feel like Wheeler is a sneaky good third option. Much better than Dallas Keuchel and J.A. Happ were behind Patrick Corbin last year. Bumgarner is boring, unspectacular, and solid. Not great, not terrible, would help the cause but I don't see him as someone who could put the Yankees over the top. I get the feeling Hamels will be a popular man this winter because every team loves quality players on one-year deals. He'd be an awesome second starter addition. Imagine adding Cole as the ace and Hamels as the fifth starter with Luis Severino, James Paxton, and Masahiro Tanaka in the 2-4 spots? That would be awesome. I do not expect it to happen. The free agent pitching market is Cole, then Strasburg, then Wheeler, then everyone else this offseason in my opinion.

4. Cole's workload. Since we're on the pitching market, how do you all feel about Gerrit Cole's workload? He threw 247 innings between the regular season and postseason this year, which is an awful lot. It is easily a new career high:

• 2015: 213 innings (regular season and postseason)
• 2016: 116 innings (elbow inflammation)
• 2017: 203 innings
• 2018: 200.1 innings
• 2019: 247 innings (regular season and postseason)

We have seen countless pitchers struggle the year after making a deep postseason run. I mean, look the Red Sox this year. Their pitchers were toast. (Counterpoint: The Dodgers pitchers were mostly fine.) It's not just all the extra innings and wear and tear, it's the shorter offseason to recover. Throwing 200 innings when your season ends Oct. 1st is a heck of a lot different than throwing 240 innings when your season ends Oct. 31st, you know? Cole's workload is not a dealbreaker for me, not even close, but it is something that has to be acknowledged, and whichever team signs him will probably figure out a plan to ease him into things in Spring Training and early in the regular season. It's not ideal, but if the Yankees sign Cole, it's to help them win the World Series. Taking it easy on him in March and April is a small price to pay to ensure he is in position for a dominant postseason run in October. That's the priority now. October over April. Cole is a big dude (6-foot-4 and 225 lbs.) with no arm injury history beyond that elbow inflammation in 2016, and he's been a consistent 200-inning guy. He's a workhorse. There is always some inherent concern about a workload that big but it's not enough to walk away completely. There's too much reward to be scared away by that risk.

5. Keeping Adams. I totally understand why he could be on the 40-man roster chopping block this offseason -- an 8.18 ERA and 7.05 FIP in 33 career big league innings will do that -- but I think the Yankees should keep Chance Adams and give him another shot next year (he has a minor league option remaining for 2020). In his limited action the last two years he's shown off-the-charts spin rates with three different pitches ...

• Fastball: 2,413 rpm (MLB average: 2,275 rpm)
• Curveball: 2,853 rpm (MLB average: 2,518 rpm)
• Slider: 2,934 rpm (MLB average: 2,412 rpm)

... and while spin rate is not everything, it is not to be ignored either. Adams can really spin the ball and that is a useful skill. I think the Yankees should hang onto Adams and move him to the bullpen full-time. Don't even bother bringing him to Spring Training as a starter. Tell him to spend the offseason training to be a reliever -- Adams was a reliever throughout college, so it wouldn't be anything new to him -- and see what happens. Maybe he gets his fastball back into the 94-95 mph range and it makes a world of difference. I'll never be able to find it now, but I remember reading an interview with Brian Cashman years ago in which he said the mistake was not trading Tyler Clippard, it was not finding out what he could do in relief before trading him. That's where I'm at with Adams. Try him as a full-time reliever before moving on. He was a well-regarded prospect not too long ago and he's another year removed from elbow surgery. Get him with the new pitching coach (whoever it ends up being), stick him in the bullpen full-time, and see what happens. If it works, great. If not, then the Yankees are right back where they are now, with Adams being mostly a non-factor. They stuck with Jonathan Holder and Luis Cessa long enough to see them become useful big league relievers. It's worth doing the same with Adams.

6. Biggest hits of 2019. Every year around this time I compiled a list of the biggest Yankees hits from the just completed season at RAB. It's time to do that again. Here are the five biggest hits of the 2019 season using championship probability added, which is win probability on steroids (win probability tells you know much a single play improved your chances of winning the game and championship probably tells you much a single play improved your chances of winning a World Series title):

1. ALCS Game 6: DJ LeMahieu homer vs. Roberto Osuna (+0.077 CPA) (video)
2. ALCS Game 2: Aaron Judge homer vs. Justin Verlander (+0.031 CPA) (video)
3. ALCS Game 6: Gio Urshela homer vs. Jose Urquidy (+0.023 CPA) (video)
4. ALCS Game 1: Gleyber Torres homer vs. Zack Greinke (+0.021 CPA) (video)
5. ALCS Game 1: Torres double vs. Greinke (+0.020 CPA) (video)

The two biggest hits of the Yankees season came in losses, because life is pain. CPA is telling us the LeMahieu homer was worth 7.7% of a championship, which is astronomical for a single hit. By CPA, the LeMahieu home run was the biggest hit (by far) by a Yankee since Raul Ibanez's game-tying two-run homer against Jose Valverde in Game 1 of the 2012 ALCS (+0.082 CPA) (video). The team's biggest non-ALCS hit of the year was Gleyber's go-ahead two-run double against Tyler Duffey in ALDS Game 1 (+0.016 CPA) (video). The biggest regular season hit was Judge's go-ahead two-run homer against Colin Poche on July 16th, the day the Yankees took control of the AL East (+0.005 CPA) (video). That was a fun game. For me, I think the most memorable hit of the year -- not necessarily the most important hit, but the most memorable -- was the Didi Gregorius grand slam in ALCS Game 2 against the Twins (+0.008 CPA) (video). That was pretty awesome. Sir Didi's grand slam in that inning against Poche on July 16th was pretty memorable too. I'm not really going anywhere with this. I just like looking up the biggest hits each season, and since I do it for myself, I might as well pass the information along to you guys. Here is the full 2019 CPA leaderboard. The biggest hit of the MLB season was, of course, Howie Kendrick's go-ahead two-run home run in the seventh inning of World Series Game 7 (+0.348 CPA). It was not only the biggest hit of the season, it was the biggest hit in baseball since Ben Zobrist's go-ahead two-run double in the tenth inning of Game 7 of the 2016 World Series (+0.416 CPA).

7. Losing Beltran. The Mets introduced Carlos Beltran as their new manager yesterday and I have to say, I'm surprised the Mets made such a smart hire. Good for them. Beltran is highly regarded throughout baseball and he commands instant respect in the clubhouse, plus his baseball IQ is through the roof. Also, based on his playing days, Beltran can speak intelligently about the game and he handles the media well, which are two important skills in New York. Mickey Callaway was so obviously in over his head with the media. That won't be the case with Beltran. He'll represent the organization well at the podium, if nothing else. They have an adult in the room now. The Yankees interviewed Beltran for their managerial opening two years ago and they hired him as a special advisor to Brian Cashman last offseason, and he was around the team a lot -- a lot -- this year. He lives in New York and was at Yankee Stadium constantly during homestands, and he often traveled to Scranton or Trenton when the Yankees were on a road trip. Beltran is a brilliant baseball mind and the Yankees will miss having him in the front office, but they also knew they were going to lose him at some point. He made it no secret he wanted to manage and it was only a matter of time until the opportunity arose. Now he gets to do exactly that while staying home and joining a team he already knows well. It was pretty much the perfect opportunity for him. The Yankees will miss him, without a doubt, but they were also able to benefit from having him around this past year. It was a good fit for both sides, and hey, maybe a reunion will be in order when he inevitably gets fired by the Mets. (I'm not taking a shot at Beltran. Every manager gets fired at some point. That's the business.)

8. New catching coach. According to Brandon Warne and Dan Hayes, the Yankees have hired minor league catching coordinator Tanner Swanson away from the Twins to take over as their big league catching coach and quality control coach. He'll also oversee catcher development throughout the farm system. (The Yankees haven't announced the hire yet.) I guess this means catching coach Jason Brown and quality control coach Carlos Mendoza aren't coming back next year? Not in the same capacities, at least. Anyway, the Yankees have been looking at college coaches for their pitching coach vacancy, and Swanson is cut from a similar cloth. He spent six years working with catchers at the University of Washington and Santa Clara University before joining the Twins in late 2017. Interestingly enough, he has never caught nor did he play in college. Travis Sawchik wrote an interesting article about Swanson in September, specifically about how he helped Mitch Garver improve his framing:

“I kind of had a clean slate to look at it objectively. I didn’t carry all these biases — ‘Well, this is how I used to do it. This is how I was taught,’” Swanson said. “I think a lot of times as coaches, we have these drill packages that we’ve compiled and we don’t truly understand  the ‘why’ or question whether a particular drill leads to improvement.” 

Gary Sanchez's framing went in the tank this year -- he's gone from +7.7 runs to +3.3 runs to -5.1 runs with his framing from 2017-19 according to Baseball Prospectus (subs. req'd) -- possibly because he's worked so much on his blocking. The priority could be blocking over framing now. Who knows? Just a theory. Swanson helped Garver improve his framing last year by changing his stance behind the plate and training with weighted balls to improve his hand strength and movements. Garver went from -8.2 framing runs in 2018 to +4.2 framing runs in 2019. The Yankees are committed to Sanchez behind the plate, as they should be. They worked hard last year to improve his blocking and he went from 18 passed balls in 2018 to seven in 2019, and one passed pitch (passed balls plus wild pitches) every 10.4 innings to one every 20.1 innings. The blocking has improved and now they have to get Gary's framing back to where it was two years ago, and Swanson is apparently the guy they are bringing in to do it. Imagine adding a recent college coach who never caught himself to the MLB staff to help develop one of the best catchers in baseball? It would've sounded crazy even two years ago. Now it's just the way teams are doing business, the Yankees included. No longer does MLB feature a collection of veteran coaches who rotate around each offseason. There's new blood joining the ranks.

9. Hal on German. Last week Dan Martin spoke with Hal Steinbrenner, who said the usual (it was a disappointing end to the season, blah blah bah), and also chimed in on the pitching situation. From Martin:

“If the 2020 season was to start tomorrow, I would feel considerably more confident than I did a year ago at this time,’’ Steinbrenner said. “We will have both Severino and Montgomery back. We now know that [Domingo] German can pitch effectively at this level. And we know [James] Paxton can be the guy that we were hoping for when we made that trade. We have [Masahiro] Tanaka, [J.A.] Happ, [Jonathan] Loaisiga, and perhaps [Deivi] Garcia at some point. A very good rotation."

The Yankees and Steinbrenner were always going to say they're comfortable with the current rotation -- what are they supposed to do, come out and say they're going to spend big for Gerrit Cole? how does that help? -- so that's not surprising. Why in the world is Hal mentioning German though? The guy is currently on administrative leave as MLB investigates a domestic violence incident and he is going to be suspended for some length of time next year. There is no reason to bring that dude up at all. Then again, Hal is the same guy who once said, "Sooner or later, we forget, right?" regarding Aroldis Chapman's suspension, so forgive me for not being surprised by his ignorance. The World Series was just overshadowed by a team executive who accosted three female reporters, at least one of whom had spoken out publicly against domestic violence, and now Hal brings up German like he's coming back from a stubbed toe or something. Read the room, man. The Yankees are completely insensitive to domestic violence -- they've now paid three separate times for Chapman since his incident became public (trade, free agent contract, extension) -- and it starts right at the top. You may not care about it and that's fine. You're welcome to feel however you want. Lots of people do care though, and the Yankees are doing a real bang up job letting those people know they don't care about their concerns.

(Send your mailbag questions to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)