August 30th, 2019: Severino, Tanaka, Ford, Sept. call-ups, Schmidt, AzFL, Diaz, Mailbag

Shameless self-promotion: CBS is running a promotion where you can get SportsLine's gambling info for $1 for the first month. Sign up here and use promo code AXISA (all caps). I don't gamble but I know the guy who does SportsLine's NFL content and he seems to nail everything. If you sign up, cool. If not, that's cool too. No hard feelings, even though there's a prize for having the most used promo code. Anyway, enough Company Man business. Here are today's thoughts as the Yankees prepare to begin their second-to-last homestand of the season (yes, really).

1. Severino's timetable. For the first time really all season, we can plot out a timetable for Luis Severino's return. He threw two innings and 35 pitches in a simulated game Tuesday and is expected to make an official minor league rehab start with Triple-A Scranton on Sunday. "Really good. Two innings. Threw the ball well, second inning was even sharper. So assuming (he) comes in (Wednesday) and everything is good to go, probably looking at a Sunday start ... The plan probably would be Sunday, 35 pitches in the game. Sunday is the next step," Aaron Boone told George King on Tuesday. A rehab start Sunday confirms Severino will not be activated when rosters expand Sept. 1st. More importantly, we can plot out a rehab schedule:

• Sunday, Sept. 1st: 35 pitches
• Friday, Sept. 6th: 50 pitches
• Wednesday, Sept. 11th: 65 pitches
• Monday, Sept. 16th: 80 pitches

That's a five-day schedule assuming everything goes right. Chances are the Yankees will give Severino an extra day between some (all?) starts and play it cautiously given how things have gone this year. Remember, the goal is not getting Severino back to the Yankees as soon as possible. The goal is getting him ready for October. If that means extra rest or something like two 50-pitch starts before jumping up to 65 pitches, so be it. The minor league postseason ends Sept. 15th, so Severino can make three rehab starts at most, and even that depends how deep a run Trenton or Scranton makes. (Trenton has already clinched a postseason spot. Scranton is fighting for one.) My guess is the Yankees are planning to have Severino make two rehab starts. One this weekend then one next Friday or Saturday. Planning for that third postseason start is difficult because there's no guarantee a minor league affiliate will still be playing. Hopefully Severino gets through this weekend's rehab outing and however many other rehab outings in good shape, then can rejoin the Yankees and start getting big league hitters out. Might take a few outings to shake off a season's worth of rust. As long as he's healthy, I'm confident Severino will figure it out. And once all that happens, the Yankees will figure out how to use Severino in October. "We’ll see. That’s what this month will hopefully declare itself for us and then we can make the best decisions for him and for us going forward," Boone told King when asked about Severino's postseason role.

2. Tanaka's splitter. It has been about a month since Masahiro Tanaka changed the grip on his trademark splitter. Even with the bad outing in Oakland, Tanaka had a very good August, throwing 32.2 innings with a 3.21 (3.52 FIP). The splitter has been more effective since the grip change, though it's still not back to where it was last year:

Sample size caveats apply, obviously. Tanaka hasn't given up the same loud contact on the splitter since the grip change, hence the decrease in expected wOBA, ditto the decrease in AVG and SLG allowed. The swing-and-miss rate is still way down though. Tanaka's splitter is a ground ball pitch more than a strikeout pitch now, whereas last season (and throughout his career), it's been both. Here's what Tanaka told Lindsey Adler (subs. req'd) about the grip change:

“We thought it was the full body of the mechanics,” Tanaka explained. “But the ball wasn’t working the way that I wanted to, so I figured that I had to do something more drastic, and that’s what led to the changing of the grip. The feel of the baseball is just a little bit different. Just the way I was throwing it was not giving me any sort of the depth on the splitter.” 

...

“When I throw my splitter, my fingers are on the seams, so if the seams were higher, then naturally it’d give it traction,” Tanaka explained. “But when the seams are lower, then the ball kind of slips out and that’s the big difference.” 

The early returns are promising. It's a small sample and we can't declare Tanaka out of the woods yet, plus the pitch still isn't missing many bats, but the results are promising since he changed his grip. That's a drastic change too, changing the grip on your go-to pitch in the middle of the season. No matter what they did at the trade deadline, Tanaka was always going to be in the postseason rotation and an important piece in getting the Yankees deep into October. Since the Yankees did nothing at the deadline, Tanaka has become that much more important, and the way he was pitching prior to the grip change wasn't cutting it. Now we're starting to see signs of improvement -- legitimate improvement with a tangible reason to believe it's real and not a small sample mirage -- and thank goodness for that. Tanaka can be effective without his A+ splitter. Even dominant at times. He has another month to get comfortable with the new grip before the postseason, so hopefully the swings and misses start coming back. If not, well, what can you do? At least now we're seeing progress. That was not the case April through July. "I feel like it’s getting better with each start. You’ve gotta kinda get used to it, but I feel it’s progressing in the right direction," Tanaka told Adler.

3. Ford's power. Mike Ford has seven left-on-left home runs this season. The rest of the Yankees have nine. Didi Gregorius has four, Brett Gardner has three, and Mike Tauchman and someone named Greg Bird (?) have one each. The crazy thing? Ford only has 28 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers. 28! He is 11-for-25 (.440) with seven homers, three strikeouts, and three walks in those 28 plate appearances. It goes without saying 28 plate appearances is nothing. We can't conclude anything from that. It did happen though. Those seven homers count and they helped the Yankees win games. Here's what Ford did against lefties in Triple-A, for reference:

• 2019: .267/.370/.512 in 86 at-bats
• 2018: .220/.261/.367 in 109 at-bats

Also, Ford boasts an impressive combination of high exit velocity (92.2 mph), few ground balls (35.3%), and few swings and misses (7.9%). That's a profile that grabs your attention. Luke Voit is expected to rejoin the Yankees today and sending Ford down to clear a roster spot is the easy move. Sending Tyler Wade down and rolling without a backup infielder for two days until rosters expand probably isn't an option now that Gio Urshela is nursing a groin issue (and Gregorius took the pitch to the shoulder the other day). Send a pitcher down (Nestor Cortes?). Eh, possible. Would go against pretty much everything the team has done this year with their pitching staff. Whatever happens, Ford had a great West Coast trip, and I can't help but wonder what happens with him and Bird this winter. I know I'm getting way ahead of myself, but how many first base only guys can one team carry on the 40-man roster? Voit's not going anywhere. Ford could be an optionable depth first baseman and lefty platoon option. So too could Bird, but he's never healthy. Ford is half-a-year older, and we know the Yankees love Bird, but again, the guy is never healthy. Also, Bird isn't under team control that much longer. He'll be up over four years of service time after the season. He'll be a free agent after 2021. Non-tendering Bird, then watching him stay healthy and reach his potential with, say, the Rays or Red Sox or Blue Jays would be a tough pill to swallow, but at some point a player runs out of chances, and Bird is nearing that point. He and Ford are pretty much the exact same player. If they were slick fielding shortstops, keeping both is a no-brainer. They're not though. They are defensively challenged first basemen. Ford had a good road trip and that's all it is right now. A good road trip. Not definitive proof he can handle MLB pitching. If nothing else, he's not making it easy for the Yankees to drop him when 40-man roster space is needed. “If opportunity knocked for him I was confident he would go in there and give us these kind of at-bats. The bat is real. He has been having a good year down at Triple-A and is really taking advantage of an opportunity now like so many of our guys have throughout the year. It’s really nice to see, especially on this trip," Aaron Boone told George King.

4. Sept. call-ups. Starting Sunday, teams can expand their active rosters from 25 players all the way up to 40 players. Sept. call-up rules will change next year -- teams will only be able to carry 28 players in September starting next season -- but, for now, they are the same as always. Up to 40 players starting Sunday. The Yankees have been very aggressive with their Sept. 1st call-ups in recent years. Last year they added five players to the roster on Sept. 1st and another on Sept. 2nd. The year before it was five players on Sept.1st. The year before that it was six players. The Yankees are going to add several players to the roster Sunday and not one or two guys. It'll be a few. Let's go step-by-step previewing the call-ups. Here's who I think comes up and when:

• Sept. 1st: Chance Adams, Clint Frazier, Deivi Garcia, Kyle Higashioka, Breyvic Valera

The Yankees will need a 40-man roster spot for Garcia and I'm assuming Ryan Dull will be the roster casualty, hence no Sept. 1st call-up for him. Garcia has made three Triple-A relief appearances and I don't think the Yankees will keep him down through the minor league postseason like Justus Sheffield last year. Why? Because I think they like Garcia more than they did Sheffield, and because the 2019 Yankees need arms more than the 2018 Yankees did. Deivi can help right now and he has a chance to pitch his way on to the postseason roster. He really does. I'm not 100% sold on Frazier being a Sept. 1st call-up only because the Yankees have resisted calling him up despite ample opportunity these last few weeks. "I think Frazier will probably be here, yeah," Aaron Boone told Brendan Kuty earlier this week, though that doesn't necessarily mean Sept. 1st. We'll see. For now, I'm lumping him in with the Sept. 1st crew. Adams and Higashioka are no-brainers, and Valera might've gotten stuck sitting in Triple-A had Thairo Estrada been healthy. Thairo is on the injured list though, so Valera gets the nod as the extra infielder. (I suppose Estrada could be activated on Sept. 1st with Valera remaining in Triple-A, but I have no idea what's up with Thairo.) 

• Sept. 3rd: Jonathan Loaisiga
• Sept. 9th: Mike Ford

Loaisiga and Ford have to wait out the 10-day rule before they can be called back up. And, obviously, I am assuming Ford gets sent down today to make room on the roster for Luke Voit, who's due to return from the injured list. That's tough. Ford had a nice West Coast trip, but that's the way it goes. Maybe the groin injury sends Gio Urshela to the injured list and the Yankees clear a roster spot for Voit that way. I hope not. I want Urshela healthy. Once Loaisiga and Ford spend their 10 days in the minors, they'll be back.

• After minor league postseason: Terrance Gore, Adonis Rosa

Gore is in a tough spot. He's an elite designated pinch-runner option and I have no doubt the Yankees acquired him for that reason. They also don't really need him given their big AL East lead, and there is a 40-man roster crunch given all the 60-day injured list guys coming back. Maybe some of the 10-day injured list guys become 60-day injured list candidates (Estrada, Jonathan Holder, Stephen Tarpley, Edwin Encarnacion, Aaron Hicks, etc.) and make life easy. I'm not counting on it. I think Gore gets squeezed out until mid September, and he may not get called up at all depending on the 40-man situation. Rosa is more likely to be designated for assignment than get called up in September, I think. The Yankees have all those 60-day injured list guys coming back and will need 40-man space. If he does get called up, it'll be after the postseason. Notably absent is Albert Abreu, who's had a disappointing year with Double-A Trenton (4.42 ERA and 4.42 FIP), but has been better lately. Still, he's had trouble getting Double-A hitters out this season. I don't see the Yankees bringing him up in September, even if it's only to sit in the bullpen and soak up the MLB experience. Sept. call-ups are earned and Abreu hasn't earned it.

• 10-day injured list: Edwin Encarnacion, Thairo Estrada, David Hale, Aaron Hicks, Jonathan Holder, Stephen Tarpley
• 60-day injured list: Jake Barrett, Dellin Betances, Ben Heller, Jordan Montgomery, Luis Severino, Giancarlo Stanton

Miguel Andujar is done for the season and Greg Bird and Jacoby Ellsbury are unofficially done for the season. No one expects to see them in September so there's no reason to include them here. There hasn't been an update on Estrada (hamstring), Holder (shoulder), or Tarpley (elbow) in a little while now. For all I know they could be activated on Sept. 1st or done for the season. Encarnacion has started hitting in Tampa and is working his way back. Hicks has not resumed throwing but is said to be making progress. Betances, Heller, Montgomery, Severino, and Stanton are all expected back in September, so the Yankees will have to make room for them on the 40-man roster. Poor Barrett. He's a walking talking DFA right now. As soon as he's healthy, he's probably getting dropped from the roster, because I don't see the Yankees cutting someone else to make room for him. Anyway, that's my Sept. call-up preview. I think we'll see Adams, Frazier, Garcia, Higashioka, and Valera on Sunday, Loaisiga and Ford (assuming he's sent down for Voit) once they satisfy the 10-day rule, and then maybe Gore and Rosa later in the month. Plus there's all the injured guys whose returns will be staggered throughout September.

5. Schmidt's season. Two weeks ago the Yankees promoted 2017 first round pick Clarke Schmidt to Double-A Trenton, and through three starts with the Thunder he's allowed five runs in 19 innings. All five runs came in his first start. Last time out he threw seven shutout innings and the start before that it was 6.2 scoreless. Schmidt has struck out 19 and walked one in those 19 innings. He's been pretty great overall since the promotion. Keith Law (subs. req'd) caught Schmidt's second start with Trenton. Here's what he had to say:

Schmidt was 91-95 mph Wednesday and missed bats with the fastball and with a power breaking ball at 80-85 that had slider shape in most of that range, with good tilt and, more impressive, that he seemed to command. He showed a changeup at 87-89 that had good action but came in too hard and often looked too much like a BP fastball, giving hitters an advantage. His delivery is easier now than it was before the injury -- his front shoulder stays a little more closed and his arm path from where he separates his hands to the point when he releases the ball is shorter -- although there's still some effort with a hard falloff at release. The delivery does give him some deception and I think he's a half-grade on the changeup away from being a potential No. 4 or even No. 3 starter, depending on his health. 

The fastball and slider have always been Schmidt's bread and butter. They're what got him drafted in the first round. The changeup has come along but still has to improve further to become a consistently reliable third pitch. Law's comments about Schmidt's delivery stood out most to me. Schmidt's delivery was probably the biggest red flag during his college days at South Carolina, and the Tommy John surgery didn't exactly alleviate concerns about his delivery and durability. Here's Schmidt during last year's stint with Short Season Staten Island: 

Hey, that's a pretty great changeup. Anyway, that's not a violent delivery, necessarily. It's a bit stiff and robotic though. Before this season Baseball America (subs. req'd) called it a "high-effort delivery" and MLB.com says it is a "less-than-smooth delivery." That sounds reasonable to me. Schmidt is deliberate with his leg lift then bam, everything rushes forward to the plate. It's not a smooth and fluid motion, and you know what? Lots of guys have long-term success with ugly deliveries. It can work. Now let's look at a clip from Schmidt's most recent Double-A outing:

I am no pitching mechanics expert but that looks much smoother to me. In the previous GIF, Schmidt raised his hands, then raised his leg, then delivered the ball to the plate. It was like three separate steps. Now he is raising his hands and leg at pretty much the same time, and everything flows nicely toward the plate, in one continuous motion. That little hitch in the back where his arm drags and has to speed up to catch up to the rest of his body is gone. Law said Schmidt's "arm path from where he separates his hands to the point when he releases the ball is shorter," and I can see it in the two GIFs. Everything is a little tighter and more compact now. Kinda neat to see player development as it happens. Schmidt has had a strong year statistically, throwing 90.2 innings with a 3.47 ERA (2.68 FIP) and very good strikeout (27.2%) and walk (7.7%) rates, and a top 50 swing-and-miss rate (14.7%) among the 524 pitchers with at least 90 minor league innings. I was hoping he'd get to Trenton in June or July and spend a good half-season there, but better late than never. There's still some work to be done with the changeup and building up the workload. Right now though, I'm more optimistic about Schmidt than I was coming into the season. The stuff is firm and he's cleaned up his delivery a bit. There's a chance he'll make his MLB debut at some point next summer. Getting to the show before becoming Rule 5 Draft eligible despite being drafted a month after Tommy John surgery would be quite an accomplishment. "Not a drastic change (to my delivery), but a change in itself. My average velo has taken a jump and I’m happy with where everything is at," Schmidt told Kyle Franko earlier this month. (Within that piece Franko says Schmidt was shut down with forearm inflammation earlier this year, so that's the mystery injury that cost him six weeks.)

6. AzFL assignments. The Arizona Fall League rosters were finally announced earlier this week. Took a little longer than I expected. As a reminder, the AzFL season has been moved up, and will now run from mid September through late October. The season used to run from early October through mid November. Here are the prospects the Yankees are sending to the desert this year with their stats going into last night's games:

(The Yankees still have two TBA pitcher spots, so two more prospects are going to the AzFL this year as well.)

Previously, teams could only send one player who spent the season below Double-A to the AzFL. That restriction has been lifted this year and the Yankees are sending four Single-A guys. Stowers is the best prospect of the bunch -- I ranked him 20th in the system before the season -- and he's had a fine season with Low-A Charleston, albeit with more strikeouts than I expected. Wagner had what looked like a breakout season last year, smashing 20 homers in 87 games with High-A Tampa, but he has crashed hard since being promoted to Double-A. He's at .198/.316/.298 (86 wRC+) in 604 Double-A plate appearances now. Yeesh. Wagner and the Yankees must be working on something that requires more reps to send him to the AzFL. Sands has been limited by injuries over the years. He's a converted third baseman who has caught only 205 games from 2016-19, and needs to play. At 6-foot-8 and 245 lbs., Bies is a giant on the mound, and he works in the low-to-mid-90s with a very good curveball. I haven't seen any recent reports on him, but it wouldn't surprise me to learn he's added velocity since being drafted and is now consistently mid-90s. That would make him an awfully interesting bullpen prospect. Otto has dealt with injuries the last two years, including surgery to remove a blood clot from his shoulder last year that ended his season after two starts, but he has some of the best pure stuff in the system. Here's what MLB.com wrote at the end of last season:

As a college reliever and in short pro stints, Otto sat at 92-95 mph with his fastball and peaked at 97. His spike curveball can be more devastating and also harder to control, combining power and 12-to-6  break ... he could have a pair of well-above-average pitches ... Otto rarely employed a changeup in college, so adding a reliable third pitch will be a focal point of his development. Improving his control and command are also on his to-do list

The Yankees still have Otto working as a starter, though a permanent shift to the bullpen may not be far away. Either way, it's all about health with him. He's got a great arm but has to stay on the field so he can continue working on things. As for the two TBA spots, chances are they will be fringe prospects -- righty Kyle Zurak was the TBA guy last year -- though I do wonder whether the Yankees are waiting to see how Clarke Schmidt looks and feels at the end of the minor league regular season and postseason. If everything checks out, he could head to the AzFL to get another 30 innings or so. Mike King is another candidate given all the time he missed with the elbow injury this year. In all likelihood it will be two fringe prospects though. That's usually how these TBA spots work. I'm a bit surprised Estevan Florial is not going to the AzFL, though he's been there the last two years, and he might play winter ball back home in the Dominican Republic instead. It's a higher caliber of competition there.

7. Losing Diaz. Jhon Diaz, the 16-year-old Dominican outfielder the Yankees reportedly agreed to sign for $1.2M back in July, has instead signed with the Rays, reports Jesse Sanchez. James Wagner says his bonus was over $1M. The Yankees gave pretty much their entire $5.4M international bonus pool to outfielder Jasson Dominguez, so they had to trade for bonus pool money to afford Diaz, and it didn't happen before the deadline. Rather than wait until the Yankees could add pool money in the offseason, Diaz signed the Rays now. Can't blame the kid. I'd want my money now too. Here's a snippet of MLB.com's scouting report:

(He) has power now with the potential for more in the future. Among his biggest assets are his approach at the plate and his good bat speed through the strike zone. He consistently makes hard contact and he drives the ball to all fields. Scouts praise his smooth swing and hitting mechanics ... The teen is plus runner who has the type of speed that can make defense rush their throws. He has the type of baseball instincts that can turn an errant throw into extra bases. On defense, he has the potential to be an above-average center fielder with an above-average  arm. He already plays with confidence and performs well in games.

The Yankees no doubt knew losing Diaz to another team was possible after being unable to add bonus pool money at the deadline. They could still add pool money in the offseason and sign other prospects, but most of the top guys are signed already. According to MLB.com, the only top 30 international prospect still on the market is Cuban infielder Yiddi Cappe, and they say he may wait until next year to sign because he defected not too long ago and scouts haven't seen him. We'll see whether the Yankees get involved over the winter. I am kinda bummed the Yankees lost out on Diaz though. The scouting report is pretty exciting. Too bad he got away.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Paul asks: What’s your best case scenario playoff roster and lineup? I’m interested to see how you shuffle the infield and which pitchers (Cortes over Happ?) get left off.

The best case scenario involves Dellin Betances, Edwin Encarnacion, Aaron Hicks, Luis Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, and Luke Voit all being healthy. What are the odds that happens? Eh, not very good. I reckon at least one of those dudes won't be game ready come playoff time.

Anyway, assuming good health, here is my ALDS roster:

Notably absent: Luis Cessa, Nestor Cortes, Mike Ford, Clint Frazier, Deivi Garcia, Cory Gearrin, Terrance Gore, David Hale, J.A. Happ, Kyle Higashioka, Jonathan Holder, Jonathan Loaisiga, Jordan Montgomery, Stephen Tarpley, Tyler Wade

No Urshela and no Encarnacion in the starting lineup is tough, but remember, if the Yankees are forced into those lineup decisions, it's a good thing. It means everyone is healthy and at full strength. I'm not sure that'll be the case with Encarnacion and Stanton after their long layoffs. Fingers crossed.

I feel like the position players are pretty obvious. I guess you could debate carrying a guy like Wade or Gore as a pinch-runner over Maybin, especially since Maybin doesn't figure to play much and Wade's/Gore's speed can be leveraged in a close game. For now, I'm going with Maybin. Position players are set.

German, Paxton, and Tanaka are clearly the top three starters. They'll start Games 1-3 in whatever order. My plan for the fourth starter's spot is sweep the series and don't worry about it. If there is a Game 4 though, letting Severino and Sabathia tag team it is the best option. Using Severino in relief in Game 1 and as a 2-3 inning opener in Game 4 is doable.

Given the state of the pitching staff, dropping Maybin and carrying a 12th pitcher would be a reasonable move. I'd go with Loaisiga, personally, but there are arguments to be made for Cessa, Cortes, and Gearrin. Happ will be on the actual postseason roster. I'm sure of it. I just can't trust that dude though. Give me Sabathia over Happ every day of the week.

As for Garcia, he's a talented young pitcher and a very good prospect, but I'm not sure a kid with that walk rate (11.1%) who's had trouble keeping the ball in the park with the juiced ball (seven homers in 36 Triple-A innings) is the best option for the postseason roster given the available alternatives. Love Deivi, but I think the postseason roster would be pushing it.

Keep in mind matchups will dictate the postseason roster somewhat. Against a team with a right-handed heavy lineup like the Astros, carrying Gearrin as a righty specialist could make sense. The Twins have several power lefty bats, making Cortes or Tarpley an option. That's my ideal ALDS roster up there though, and I'd bet the farm against it being the actual ALDS roster.

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Ryan asks: What’s the Yankees offensive BA 3rd time facing a pitcher this season? We’ve seen how bad our pitchers rank, but how well do our hitters sit? 

Believe it or not, the Yankees offense has actually performed worse the third time through the lineup this year. It's a small difference and they're still comfortably above-average, but each time through the lineup, the offense has been less effective relative to the league average. Look:

• First time: .265/.336/.485 (126 OPS+)
• Second time: .283/.339/.522 (119 OPS+)
• Third time: .280/.351/.515 (115 OPS+)

OPS+ is the important stat here because it compares the Yankees to the league average. Obviously the third time slash line is way better than the first time, but, compared to the league average in each situation, it isn't as good. Here are the league averages:

• First time: .243/.309/.415
• Second time: .263/.325/.455
• Third time: .267/.328/.471

The Yankees have 636 plate appearances against a pitcher the third time through the lineup this season, or roughly 4.7 per game. That's not much. Just five years ago the Yankees averaged 7.0 plate appearances per game the third time through the lineup. Leashes keep getting shorter and shorter and shorter.

(Send mailbag questions to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)