August 16th, 2019: Injuries, Judge, Gardner, Frazier, Pitching, Mailbag

We are firmly in the dog days of summer now. The series are kinda starting to blend together, especially because the Yankees have a big AL East lead and we don't have to sweat every single game. Just counting down the days until rosters expand, the Yankees clinch, and the postseason begins. Anyway, here are today's thoughts as 2013 Ivy League Pitcher of the Year Mike Ford takes the mound at Yankee Stadium.

1. Rehab timetables. The Yankees are finally providing positive updates on their injured core players. Luis Severino (shoulder, lat) threw another bullpen session yesterday and will face hitters this weekend. He could begin a minor league rehab assignment fairly soon. Dellin Betances (shoulder) is a bit behind Severino, but he threw a bullpen session yesterday as well, so he's progressing. Also, Giancarlo Stanton (knee) has started hitting off a tee and soft toss, and he's increased his running to 85% on the anti-gravity treadmill. “I want to be out there for a couple weeks just for the game routine and having whatever amount of at-bats I can. Just the game routine for a few weeks," Stanton told Brendan Kuty. That's all good news, but now that we're in mid-August, the clock is ticking. Not just on the big league season either. The minor league season ends in three weeks and that doesn't leave much time for rehab games. With Severino, the Yankees can get away with stretching him out in big league games once rosters expand and they have all the extra pitchers. Betances can be eased into things in lower leverage spots. There is no good way to rehab Stanton in the big leagues though. The Yankees effectively rehabbed Aaron Judge with simulated games and whatnot after the minor league season last September, so they've done this before, but it's not ideal. Remember how much Judge struggled when he first came back from the wrist injury? He needed a good 40 plate appearances or so to get back on track. A broken wrist is much different than a sprained knee ligament, but the point is Stanton will have to regain his timing at the plate following a long layoff, the same way Judge did last year. Are there enough games remaining for Stanton to do that? I sure hope so. As well as the Yankees have played without him this season, Giancarlo can be a difference-maker, and he would make this team better. The Edwin Encarnacion injury means the DH spot is wide open and Stanton would slot in nicely. Hopefully everyone's rehab progresses well and everyone can get the innings and at-bats they need before October. "It’s been really good to see the team playing so well. That’s what’s really kept it not so bad for me, just to watch everyone bringing together wins in all different types of ways. Not one hero every night. That’s what I’ve been focusing on. Not 'poor me' and all this stuff," Stanton told Kuty.

2. Judge's slump. Aaron Judge's slump has crossed over from "eh, that's baseball" to "okay, this is annoying." I'm not worried or anything -- me worrying isn't going to change anything anyway -- but I am ready for him to start hitting the snot out of the ball again. It looks like Judge is making a conscious effort to pull the ball right now, which has led to him flying open at the plate, and thus a lot of swings and misses and foul balls on hittable pitches. "I very rarely get one over the middle and when I do I have to make sure I do damage on it. When your mechanics or timing’s a little off, it makes it a tough battle. Have to just keep grinding. It sucks right now but we’ll get through it," Judge told Erik Boland following yesterday's game. Here are two strike zone plots showing Judge's xwOBA on contact the last two years. The brighter the red, the more above average. The brighter the blue, the more below average.

Keep in mind the league averages change from year-to-year. That's why a .572 xwOBA on middle-middle pitches last year is bright red (well-above-average) and a .574 xwOBA on middle-middle pitches this year is purple (slightly above-average). You can thank the juiced ball for that. Anyway, last season Judge clobbered everything. Everything except pitches at the very top of the zone and away, the pitches he rarely swings at anyway. This year there's a lot more blue and purple. Judge isn't doing damage on pitches down in the zone, first and foremost, and also on pitches out of the zone. Last year, even when Judge chased out of the zone, he still managed to hit the ball hard. That is not the case this year. I suppose the oblique injury could be contributing to Judge's current skid -- "Those boxes have been checked," Brian Cashman told Bryan Hoch yesterday when asked whether there's an injury that could explain the slump -- but his exit velocity remains the best in baseball (by nearly 3 mph!) and I'm not sure he would be hitting the ball that hard if he were hurt. Also, the Yankees had Judge on the field hitting against the high velocity pitching machine yesterday, and I don't think they would do that if he were nursing an injury. I believe Judge is in a mechanical rut more than anything. That's my idiot blogger opinion. The exit velocity is good, but the ground ball rate is still too high (43.9%), and too many hittable pitches are fouled back or being swung through. As long as he's not hurt, and I don't believe he is, it's only a matter of time until Judge snaps out of it. He's way too good and too smart a hitter to not figure it out. Until that happens, the slump will be frustrating, but that's baseball. "The game is hard. Over the course of a season, it gets the greatest players, which certainly Judgey is. So I am confident he will grind his way through it and hopefully soon," Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch following last night's game.

3. Gardner's resurgence. Brett Gardner is totally coming back next year. You know that, right? I think we all kinda assumed this would be Gardner's last hurrah given the way the Yankees talked about reducing his role and all that, but instead he's shown he can still be a reliable contributor. I mean, the guy is hitting .253/.337/.482 (112 wRC+) with 17 home runs through 123 team games, and he's doing it as a most of the time center fielder. The power is nice, but that's not really Gardner's game. This is the important stuff:

• Swing-and-miss rate: 5.5% (eighth lowest in baseball)
• Walk rate: 10.6% (well above the 8.5% league average)
• Sprint speed: 29.0 ft/s (20th highest in baseball)
• Baserunning value: +4.1 runs (13th most in baseball)
• Defensive runs saved: +8 (11th most among all outfielders)

Gardner's core skills remain intact. He doesn't swing-and-miss, he grinds out at-bats and gets on base, he runs the bases well, and he catches pretty much everything. Even with his 36th birthday a week away, Gardner is still doing the things that made him a valuable player in his late-20s and early-30s. Plus he's a positive in the clubhouse, and that's not to be ignored. Aaron Hicks got hurt in Spring Training, Giancarlo Stanton got hurt in the first series of the regular season, Aaron Judge got hurt in April, then Hicks and Stanton got hurt again at midseason. Gardner has picked up a ton of slack in center field and been a valuable complementary player. Unless he decides to hang 'em up after the Yankees win the World Series, I think Gardner is back on another one-year contract next season. By rule, the Yankees will have to carry a fourth bench player once rosters expand to 26 spots next year, and as we've seen this year, there is no such thing as too many good players. Injuries happen and depth -- quality depth -- is important. Gardner can still contribute to a championship caliber team and I have a hard time believing the two sides will go in different directions after the season. A reunion feels inevitable to me. It really does. And I'm 100% cool with it. "At this point in the season, I expect to be playing next year. Hopefully it’s here,” Gardner told Ken Davidoff recently.

4. Frazier's defense. Given his offensive production earlier this year, defense is the only viable reason Clint Frazier is sitting in Triple-A. The Yankees had Frazier play some center field when he was first sent down -- that was clearly a showcase prior to the trade deadline -- but he is now playing left field full-time. Triple-A Scranton manager Jay Bell confirmed to Mark Fischer that Clint in left field is a directive from the Yankees. Here is more from Fischer:

“I think part of [Frazier’s offensive struggles] had to do with his defense,” Bell said. “He has worked his tail off, and defensively he’s gotten to a point where he’s playing just a tick deeper in the outfield, so he really is concentrating on being aggressive going forward. I think that’s allowed him to settle in out there. He knows where the fence is. He’s had no issues with that. He’s being aggressive to the ball. He’s made some diving plays, which has been really good. I think a combination of him feeling more comfortable defensively, I think it’s helped out offensively.” 

Said a scout at Thursday’s game: “I don’t see a flaw per se. If he couldn’t do something well, I’d say he couldn’t do something.” 

I suppose you could read too much into the Triple-A left field assignment and assume Brett Gardner will not be back next year, and the Yankees will give Frazier a full-time big league job. I don't really buy it though. If the Yankees considered Clint part of the future, he would be getting DH at-bats in the Bronx right now, not Mike Ford, who seems to roll over into the shift three times a game. I'm willing to tolerate bad defense more than most people it seems, and I think the Yankees are as well, hence their commitment to Miguel Andujar at third base and Gary Sanchez at catcher. Defense is a convenient excuse with Frazier, who sure seems to be the latest member of the "the Yankees don't like him as much as they're letting on" group that includes Jesus Montero, Rob Refsnyder, and Justus Sheffield. Hopefully Clint's defense has improved and his offensive development hasn't stagnated while being relegated to Triple-A. It would be good for his career and good for the Yankees, even if they are planning to trade him rather than use him as a roster player going forward. "I want to practice (my defense) in New York, but I feel good. It hasn't been a waste of my time down here. It hasn't been a bad experience, one that I think can really help me help the Yankees when I get the chance," Frazier told Coley Harvey last month.

5. Pitching depth additions. The Yankees declined to add legitimate big league pitching help at the trade deadline, but they have been aggressive adding depth in August. They've hit the scrap heap hard. The August additions have been acquired in different ways too:

• Trade: Acquired LHP Joe Mantiply from the Reds for cash.
• Waivers: Claimed RHP Ryan Dull from the Giants.
• Free Agency: Signed RHP David Hernandez to a minor league deal.
• Free Agency: Signed LHP Tyler Lyons to a minor league deal.

We saw Mantiply in the Bronx earlier this week -- the Yankees designated him for assignment following that game -- and he is a quintessential left-on-left matchup guy. Not a whole lot to see there. Same with Lyons, who the Yankees drafted but did not sign back in the day (tenth round in 2009). Dull had a nice rookie season with the Athletics in 2016 (2.42 ERA and 3.58 FIP in 74.1 innings) but was unable to build on that success. He has a 5.66 ERA (4.83 FIP) in 76.1 big league innings since. Hernandez threw 119 innings with a 2.80 ERA (3.09 FIP) from 2017-18. This year it's an 8.02 ERA (4.35 FIP) in 42.2 innings, which is why the Reds released him. Dull and Hernandez do something the Yankees like though:

• Dull: 2,369 rpm average fastball spin rate (72nd percentile)
• Hernandez: 2,367 rpm average fastball spin rate (71st percentile)

Dull and Hernandez can really spin their low-90s fastballs. With trade waivers no longer a thing, this is as good as it gets in August. Mantiply has already chewed up innings in a low-leverage situation, so he's helped. Dull has a minor league option and is sitting in Triple-A, ready to ride the shuttle. (Chance Adams was sent down following last night's game and I would not be surprised to see Dull get the call to replace him.) Squint your eyes and you can see Hernandez contributing in a limited role. Maybe he turns back into the guy he was from 2017-18 for a few weeks. That would be cool and an extremely 2019 Yankees thing. The fact an established veteran reliever like him took a minor league deal with the Yankees rather than go to a team with a more obvious bullpen need (Phillies and Nationals jump to mind) could be an indication the team promised him a September (or sooner?) call-up. We'll see. Point is, the Yankees have been aggressive adding depth arms since the trade deadline. Dull had a nice year a few years ago and is optionable. Hernandez has been very good in the not too distant past. That's the best you're going to get at this time of year in the post-waiver trades era.

6. Third time through. No matter how the Yankees order their postseason rotation, one thing has become clear: They can't let their starters go through the lineup a third time. The numbers are horrible. Even more horrible than I realized. Look:

Update: Tanaka has a .282 wOBA the first two times through the lineup, not a .328 wOBA. My bad. I made a typo and didn't have time to update the table and upload a new image.

Yikes! It's one thing to push a guy through the lineup a third time when he's cruising and you have a multi-run lead against a crummy team in a regular season game. Sometimes you have to do that to save the bullpen. In the postseason though? Nope. The games are too important and both the eye test and the numbers tell us the Yankees starters are not equipped to go through a lineup -- especially the lineups they'll see in October -- more than twice. Give them their 18 batters and turn it over to that bullpen, especially in any game that is remotely close. In a weird way, the starters' collective struggles the third time through are a good thing, because it takes some of the guesswork out of bullpen management. The Yankees know that no, they should not push their starter through the lineup a third time, no matter who is on the mound. The Yankees are aware of these limitations -- their starters have faced 559 batters after two turns through the lineup, the seventh fewest in baseball -- so I am cautiously optimistic they will limit their starters to 18 batters and go to their bullpen in October. I know I'm getting ahead of myself with the postseason talk, but I was digging through some numbers the other day, and the third time through stats really jumped out at me. They are very bad and the Yankees have to proceed accordingly in October.

7. Minor league thoughts. Shortstop Josh Smith, this year's second round pick, is having a hilariously good pro debut. The LSU product is hitting .407/.521/.593 (220 wRC+) with 15 walks and only four strikeouts in 16 games with Short Season Staten Island. It's a tiny sample, for sure, so we'll see what happens going forward. That's about as good as pro debuts get though. The Yankees gave Smith a straight slot $976,700 bonus and MLB.com says he "may not have a true plus tool, but he has no obvious holes in his game and should become at least a utilityman," which isn't the most exciting report in the world. The Yankees have had a ton of success identifying and developing under-the-radar bats at the MLB level in recent years, so maybe that success will extend to the minors with Smith? ... Righty Luis Medina is finishing his season very well. He's allowed nine runs in his last six starts and 35 innings, and, most importantly, he's posted an 8.8% walk rate and a 37.5% strikeout rate in those six starts. In his first 14 starts, it was 18.9% walks and 22.0% strikeouts. Here's what Jim Callis said about the 20-year-old Medina earlier this week:

The right-hander has a fastball that reaches 102 mph with cutting action, a high-spin curveball that combines power and depth and a low-90s changeup with splitter action. When they're on, each of his pitches grades as well above average ... He hasn't dialed back his stuff at all (during his hot streak) -- he averaged 97 mph during seven shutout innings Tuesday night -- and hasn't made any mechanical changes. One club official said Medina looks more comfortable on the mound than he has in the past.

Preseason reports suggested Medina's control issues are mental more than physical or mechanical. Maybe he's gotten over that mental block? That sure would be something. Here's some video of his most recent outing. The strike-throwing version of Medina is awfully good. If nothing else, this strong finish allows him to go into the offseason feeling good about things ... Outfielder Raimfer Salinas was something of a forgotten prospect coming into the season. The Yankees gave him $1.85M of their leftover Shohei Ohtani money two years ago, but finger and knee injuries limited him to five games in the Rookie Gulf Coast League last season. This year Salinas is hitting .279/.333/.449 (124 wRC+) with three home runs in 35 GCL games. The 27.2% strikeout rate and 3.4% walk rate are a major eyesore, but he's an 18-year-old kid making what amounts to his pro debut. Here's what Baseball America (subs. req'd) said about Salinas coming into the season:

Salinas shows excellent balance at the plate, with an all-fields approach and fringe-average power now that has the potential to develop further as he matures ... When healthy, he shows double-plus speed, a strong throwing arm and the ability to glide to balls in center field.

This doesn't really qualify as a breakout season for Salinas, but it is a fine comeback year following the injuries last season. He has a lot of talent and I'm excited to see where he goes from here. Salinas is going from overlooked to front-and-center in a hurry.

Mailbag Question of the Week

John asks: Still a month and a half to go, but where do you have Gio and DJ sitting in your AL MVP projections? Seems like it's Trout and then everyone else, so curious to see where you think the two of them stack up.

The Angels aren't going to the postseason (again) so chances are Mike Trout will get hosed out of the MVP (again) because his team is not in the race. In 50 years, baseball fans are going to look back at this generation of MVP voters and wonder why Trout didn't win like ten MVPs. Whatever.

Anyway, I think the five best players in the American League this year have been Trout, DJ LeMahieu, Alex Bregman, Rafael Devers, and Matt Chapman. The Red Sox (probably) aren't going to the postseason, which hurts Devers, and Chapman was lagging behind the other guys a tad offensively before his recent homer binge.

I think LeMahieu's chances of winning MVP this year are as good as any Yankees' since peak Alex Rodriguez. Even better than Aaron Judge in 2017. LeMahieu has been out of this world good, first and foremost, plus he has the narrative going for him. He's that unheralded free agent signing who carried the Yankees through their injuries, etc. etc.

If the season ended today, I believe Trout, LeMahieu, and Bregman would finish in the top three of the MVP voting in some order. There's still six weeks and two days to play, so a lot can change, but I think those guys are the favorites for the award right now. The Angels being bad and the Yankees having so many injuries work in LeMahieu's favor.

As for Urshela, he is about 150 plate appearances behind other MVP candidates, which will hurt his chances. As it should, I think. He's been great, but others have played more and provided more value to their team. I do expect Urshela to get several MVP votes though, and maybe even finish in the top ten of the voting. Wouldn't that be something?

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Ryan asks: IF the season ended today, DJLM would win his second batting title and finish 2nd in the MVP vote. Obviously it’s not happening, but what would an extension even look like for the 31 y/o turning 32 in 2020? I’m throwing out 3 additional years and 50MM? Taking him through his age 35 season?  

Fun Fact: DJ LeMahieu has a chance to become the first player in baseball history to win a batting title in both leagues. No one's ever done it before. LeMahieu hit .348 and won the batting title with the Rockies in 2016, and, as of today, his .338 average leads the AL. He is six points ahead of Michael Brantley. (Gio Urshela is hitting .337 but is 17 plate appearances short of qualifying for the batting title.)

On one hand, LeMahieu has all the leverage right now, and that could equal a bad deal for the Yankees. On the other hand, LeMahieu has fit in so well and so seamlessly, and guys like that are hard to find. Even if he settles in as, say, a .290/.340/.450 guy going forward, that's someone worth keeping around given his glove and versatility.

LeMahieu will make $12M next year. Would he take another two years and $34M on top of that? Maybe add a club option for another year with a buyout that ups the guarantee to $36M? That would essentially be a three-year, $48M contract covering 2020-22, his age 32-34 seasons, with an option for his age 35 season.

My hunch is LeMahieu's camp would reject that and push for another guaranteed year. Ryan's idea of three years and $50M on top of what he's owed next year strikes me as something LeMahieu's side proposes, not something the Yankees offer. That third guaranteed year could be the sticking point in negotiations.

As great as LeMahieu's been this year -- and he's been outrageously good -- I am wary of getting caught up in the moment and committing big dollars to what will potentially be decline years. A two-year extension that locks him in through 2022 would be ideal to me. Anything more than that starts to enter the danger zone.

(Send your mailbag questions to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)