July 26th, 2019: Sanchez, Higashioka, Trade Deadline, Tulowitzki, Mailbag

A few people have asked for an update, so I'm going to take a second to say I am doing well following my annoyingly complicated appendectomy. I was told the incision and everything else is healing well during my follow-up appointment earlier this week. Getting closer to 100% with each passing day. Thanks for your concern and thanks as always for the support. Now here are today's thoughts as I wonder who I have to petition for Ryan Ruocco to become the YES Network's full-time play-by-play guy.

1. Sanchez's injury. The Gary Sanchez injury really stinks. I know he was stuck in an ugly month-long slump that dragged his batting line down to .229/.299/.508 (105 wRC+), but he can change a game with one swing, and now he's going to miss a few weeks. "In the scale of strains, I guess it is minor, somewhat good news, but it is going to be some time. We will have to see how the next week unfolds, how he is feeling, and when he can start back up baseball activities," Aaron Boone told George King earlier this week. Sanchez isn't going to snap out of that slump while on the injured list*, you know? I suppose the good news is the Yankees have a 9.5-game lead in the AL East (eleven in the loss column), though at this point they're competing with the Dodgers and Astros for the best record in baseball (and thus homefield advantage throughout the postseason) more than the Rays and Red Sox in the division. If you're going to lose an important player like Gary, losing him with a 9.5-game division lead is the time to do it. Also, the Yankees are in okay shape in terms of catching depth. Austin Romine and Kyle Higashioka won't kill them the next few weeks -- the Yankees have enough offense to cover for the black hole at the bottom of the lineup -- plus the Yankees have veteran Erik Kratz stashed in Triple-A. Things could be worse. The Yankees could pursue another catcher prior to the trade deadline -- Mariana Guzman reported the Yankees acquired catcher Brian Navarreto, a career .215/.265/.308 (66 wRC+) hitter in over 1,700 minor league plate appearances, from the Twins in a warm body trade yesterday -- though I don't think it would be a big name (Wilson Ramos, Alex Avila, etc.). I think it would be another guy like Kratz, basically. Someone to stash in Triple-A as depth. Long story short, losing Sanchez really bites, but at least the Yankees have a big division lead and decent enough catching depth to get them through the next few weeks. Get well soon, Gary.

* Aside: Why does everyone seem to think the way to getting a player out of a slump is to sit him for a few days? I never understood that. 

2. Higashioka's playing time. I thought it was interesting Aaron Boone said Austin Romine and Kyle Higashioka will share playing time behind the plate while Gary Sanchez is on the injured list. "I think probably more of a split. I think you will see them both a lot. We’ll see how it plays out, see how it unfolds, but I think you’ll see a lot of both of them," Boone told Randy Miller. In the past, Romine took over as the starter whenever Sanchez was on the injured list, with Higashioka playing sparingly as a true backup. Now they're going to share time, apparently. Hmmm. I've been kinda wondering these last few weeks whether the Yankees would let Romine walk after the season and install Higashioka as the backup catcher going forward, and perhaps this is a sign they're considering it? This is Higashioka's final minor league option year, so the Yankees won't be able to easily stash him in Triple-A as an up-and-down third catcher next year. Rather than pay Romine a few million to be Gary's backup -- I could see Romine getting something like two years and $5M or $6M total in free agency -- the Yankees could go with the cheaper and perfectly cromulent Higashioka. He's been around a while now, so he knows the pitching staff, plus he's regarded as a strong defender and there is some power in his bat. (See: last night's homer.) I mean, he has a .268/.343/.581 (126 wRC+) batting line with 16 homers in 53 Triple-A games this year. Does anyone think Romine could do that in Triple-A, even with the MLB ball? Letting Romine walk as a free agent and replacing him with Higashioka seems like a perfectly normal changing of the guard. This latest big league stint may be more meaningful for Higashioka than the usual injury call up. This could be his opportunity to show the Yankees he is ready to be Sanchez's backup catcher starting next season.

3. Ranking pitching targets. During this five-game disaster stretch the Yankees have gone from having the eighth best park-adjusted rotation in baseball (94 ERA-) to the 15th best park-adjusted rotation in baseball (100 ERA-). The Yankees clearly need another starting pitcher prior to next Wednesday's trade deadline, and not just an innings eater. Someone they can start in Game One or Game Two of a postseason series. They can't count on Luis Severino coming back and having an impact, Domingo German's workload is going to be monitored to some extent, and I don't think the Yankees want to start J.A. Happ and/or CC Sabathia in a postseason series. A starter is a must. It's been clear since, well, Opening Day, and this past week has really driven home the point. So, with the trade deadline approaching, here is the official RAB trade target preference list:

1. Noah Syndergaard: Alas, there's little reason to believe the Mets would actually trade him to the Yankees.
2. Marcus Stroman: Grounder machine, knows the AL East, under control next year.
3. Mike Minor: Love the arsenal and contract, but he's really struggled lately.
4. Madison Bumgarner: Trending the right way, won't shy away from the spotlight.
5. Robbie Ray: Can really dominate on his best days, under control next year.
6. Matt Boyd: Strikeout machine in his prime, under control through 2022.
7. Zack Wheeler: The injury takes a bite out of his stock, but could be a buy-low guy.
8. Trevor Bauer: I've heard the Yankees are out completely for makeup reasons.
9. Tanner Roark: Rental who will eat innings at a league average-ish rate.
10-12. Danny Duffy, Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake: *deep sigh* meh

I want to like Boyd more, but I'm struggling to do it. There is a "the results aren't as good as the stuff" element to him (4.07 ERA and 3.57 FIP) and I kinda need a break from those types after watching nearly 800 innings of Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi within the last few years. Plus the Tigers have reportedly set a high price and they're known to stick to their guns with their top trade chips, which is why they still employ Michael Fulmer. Is Boyd really the guy you want to give up a huge package to acquire? Syndergaard isn't having a great year (4.33 ERA and 3.64 FIP) but I would bet on that talent eight days a week and twice on Sundays, especially since he's under team control through 2021. Supposedly the Mets are intent on moving him -- "It's beyond listening. They want to move him," a rival evaluator told Buster Olney recently -- but I'm going to need to see a Yankees-Mets trade of this magnitude to believe it'll happen. The Wilpons wouldn't even sign off on a Jay Bruce salary dump two years ago. Trading Syndergaard across town? I can't see it. (For what it's worth, Marc Carig hears the asking price is a global top 30 prospect, plus other solid pieces. That sounds like a steal for a guy like Syndergaard.) Ray is almost a James Paxton clone as a high strikeout fastball heavy southpaw, though the walks (11.1%) and homers (1.54 HR/9) are worrisome. Wheeler missed two weeks with a shoulder impingement and will return from the injured list to start tonight. In a weird way, the injury may have made him a more desirable trade target. The price has dropped, undoubtedly, and it may have dropped enough to make him worth a roll of the dice. The stuff is high-end and the injury wasn't that bad given how quickly he returned. There's still the Yankees-Mets trade obstacle to overcome, however. Anyway, with Syndergaard not a realistic target, my three preference is Stroman, Minor, and Bumgarner in that order, and there's not a big gap between the three in my opinion.

4. Second starter trade. The Yankees traded for two starters at the 2017 deadline (Sonny Gray and Jaime Garcia) and again at the 2018 deadline (J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn), and they should probably do it again this year. As I said in the last point, they can't count on Luis Severino (or Jordan Montgomery) coming back and having an impact, and Domingo German's workload will be monitored down the stretch. We all love Nestor Cortes and Jonathan Loaisiga (remember him?), but yeah, adding more pitching depth is never a bad idea. Especially now that August trade waivers are a non-option. Now you have to get pitching before next Wednesday and cross your fingers the rest of the year. If the Yankees do trade for two starters, I don't expect it to be, say, Marcus Stroman and Madison Bumgarner, though I'd happily take it. That second guy would likely be a lower profile depth arm who could sit in the bullpen as the long man should he not be needed in the rotation. Some possible rental targets:

• Trevor Cahill (6.59 ERA and 6.11 FIP)
• Wade LeBlanc (4.79 ERA and 5.17 FIP)
• Jordan Lyles (5.36 ERA and 4.80 FIP)
• Ivan Nova (5.49 ERA and 5.33 FIP)
• Drew Pomeranz (5.83 ERA and 5.31 FIP)
• Michael Wacha (5.33 ERA and 6.05 FIP)
• Alex Wood (has not pitched due to back injury)

The numbers are terrible, I know, but Lynn wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire when the Yankees acquired him last year (5.10 ERA and 4.72 FIP). They bet on the talent and track record. Wood is a great "second starter" trade target, I think. He's finally healthy and slated to make his 2019 debut tomorrow. The Reds have fallen out of the race and could either keep Wood for ten or so meaningless starts in the second half, or trade him for a prospect. Trading him seems like the smart move. Pomeranz recently moved to the bullpen and his velocity shot up, which is interesting. There's a lot of blah in this potential group of second starters, but remember, this is just me pulling names from the list of impending free agents. The Yankees could (and likely do) have other targets in mind. No one saw the Lynn trade coming last year, right? Right. That one came out of nowhere. My preference is Wood. The larger point is the Yankees could -- and should -- trade for two starters at the deadline for the third consecutive year, especially since August trade waivers are no longer on the table. There is no such a thing as too much pitching depth.

5. Trade chips. It's worth taking a minute to look over who the Yankees may trade to add pitching prior to the deadline. Assuming the Yankees won't trade from their Major League roster to get help -- they're looking to add to their Major League roster, not subtract from it --  I'd rank the team's top trade chips like so:

1. Deivi Garcia
2. Clint Frazier
3. Estevan Florial
4. Thairo Estrada
5. Luis Gil

Several other trade chips are currently injured, including Albert Abreu (biceps), Garrett Whitlock (elbow surgery), and Josh Breaux (elbow). The Abreu injury happened earlier this week, which is unfortunate timing. Those guys presumably not being available to use as trade chips is a bummer, but that's baseball. Anyway, as far as I'm concerned, the Yankees do not have any prospect untouchables (Gleyber Torres is untouchable, obviously, but he's not a prospect). I'm not saying I'd give away Garcia or Frazier, but there's no way they should off-limits. As promising as Garcia looks, he is a 5-foot-9 right-hander -- over the last 50 years, only eleven righties 5-foot-10 or shorter managed at least +10 WAR in their careers -- with a low-90s fastball on most days and a walk rate north of 10%. There's a lot of risk there. A lot of upside given his raw stuff and ability to digest information and make adjustments -- "For me, the whole thing is how quickly guys take in information that we give them and their ability to process it and apply it. Deivi is one of the best in the organization at that and he’s doing everything that we’ve asked him to do and he’s done it very well," minor league pitching coordinator Scott Aldred told Lindsey Adler -- but also a lot of risk, and I would not hesitate to trade Garcia for a big league difference maker like Syndergaard. Not when the Yankees are as ready to win as they're going to get. It is entirely possible Garcia's value will never be higher than it is right now. Frazier feels like a goner given how the Yankees have buried him -- when a 24-year-old former top prospect hits .283/.330/.513 (117 wRC+) in over 200 big league plate appearances, most teams would keep that guy around and make playing time for him, but I digress -- but, for what it's worth, my boy R.J. Anderson hears the Yankees are inclined to keep Garcia and Frazier. That could be typical deadline posturing, however. Florial is an obvious trade candidate. He's had injuries the last two years and he's hitting a weak .230/.273/.345 (84 wRC+) with High-A Tampa this season. His days as a trade package headliner might be coming to an end very soon. The Yankees are loaded with quality lower minors prospects (Roansy Contreras, Yoendrys Gomez, Oswald Peraza, Alex Vizcaino, etc.) who can help fill out a trade package. As for guys who can headline a package, it is pretty much Garcia, Frazier, and maybe Florial. That could be an obstacle at the deadline. Given their trade track record, I trust Brian Cashman and his staff to figure something out.

6. IFA money trade. All the focus is on pitching and understandably so, but the Yankees also need to trade for international bonus money prior to the deadline. Either that, or they'll have to wait until the offseason, which would put them at risk of losing prospects to teams that can pay right now. The Yankees have a $5.4M bonus pool this year and they reportedly gave $5M to wunderkind outfielder Jasson Dominguez -- the team officially announced the Dominguez signing, so it's a done deal -- which means there's not much left over. Jesse Sanchez says the Yankees have a $1.2M agreement in place with outfielder Jhon Diaz, so yeah, an international bonus money trade(s) is coming. The Yankees have acquired bonus money in larger trades the last few years -- they added $1.5M in the Sonny Gray trade, for example -- and I suppose they could land some as part of their inevitable starter trade. Otherwise they could piece it together with smaller trades. We'll see. Point is, the Yankees need to pick up international bonus money to finalize their signings, and the single July 31st trade deadline is next week. This isn't something they can figure out in August, and it probably isn't something they can wait to do until the offseason. Diaz presumably wants his $1.2M as soon as possible, you know? I know I would. Getting a starter(s) and putting the big league team in the best possible position to win a World Series championship is the top priority. Adding international bonus money to help replenish the prospect pipeline is an important secondary goal prior to the trade deadline.

7. Tulowitzki's retirement. I don't have much to say about Troy Tulowitzki retiring. He hurt his calf in April -- Tulowitzki didn't even make it through the season-opening homestand healthy -- then quit his rehab and went home in June to mull over his future. Yesterday he officially announced his retirement. "I want to thank the Yankees organization and Brian Cashman for giving me the opportunity to wear the Yankees uniform and live out another childhood dream. I wish that my health had allowed for a different ending to that chapter," he said in a statement. Signing Tulowitzki for the pro-rated league minimum was worth a roll of the dice, especially with Didi Gregorius slated to miss half the season, but injuries and little production were always the most likely outcome. All those stories about how good he looked in Spring Training were typical Spring Training fodder. Through his age 29 season Tulowitzki hit .299/.373/.517 (126 wRC+) and averaged +4.8 WAR per 600 plate appearances. He was on the Hall of Fame track. Then his body started to betray him -- it started to betray him during his late-20s, really -- and now he's completely done at age 34. This game can be cruel. Tulowitzki was a hell of a ballplayer in his prime. He's also a reminder (and so is David Wright) that you make the Hall of Fame with your 30s, not your 20s. I look forward to seeing Tulowitzki at the World Series ring ceremony next year.

8. Minor league thoughts. Right-hander and 2017 first round pick Clarke Schmidt has a 3.23 ERA (2.81 FIP) with 25.4% strikeouts and 9.5% walks in 47.1 innings with High-A Tampa this year. He also missed several weeks with an undisclosed injury and is still in Single-A more than two years after being drafted. Reports on Schmidt's stuff have been good. He's improved his changeup and his fastball/slider combination is pretty much back to where it was before Tommy John surgery, but gosh, his progress has been slow. I was hoping Schmidt would at least have a few Double-A starts under his belt and be in position for a possible late season promotion to Triple-A Scranton by now. Friends don't let friends draft injured second tier pitching prospects with the 16th overall pick ... Righty Miguel Yajure, one of my preseason not top 30 prospects, is having a strong first full season back from Tommy John surgery. He's thrown 102.1 innings with a 2.20 ERA (2.99 FIP) and solid strikeout (22.7%) and walk (6.3%) rates with Low-A Charleston. Yajure has held the mid-90s velocity he showed last year -- he was mostly low-90s before elbow reconstruction -- and continues to stand out for his pitchability. He's not a tippy top prospect or anything, but there's enough here for Yajure to be a guy to follow (and a possible trade chip) ... Catcher Saul Torres is very quietly hitting .256/.356/.511 (134 wRC+) with six homers in 25 games for Rookie Pulaski this season. Of course, it is his third straight season at Pulaski, but Torres is still only 20 and catchers often take longer to develop than players at other positions. The Yankees gave Torres the maximum $300,000 bonus in July 2016, when they were still in the penalty phase for the 2014-15 international spending spree. The book on him was that he was advanced defensively but the bat lagged, and now the bat is maybe starting to catch up. Would be cool ... Second baseman Ezequiel Duran was a hyped up exit velocity darling (blame me) who completely flopped with Rookie Pulaski last year, hitting .201/.251/.311 (48 wRC+) with a 27.7% strikeout rate. This year: .274/.370/.500 (156 wRC+) with seven homers in 33 games with Short Season Staten Island. The strikeout rate is still high (28.8%), but Duran turned only 20 in May and is a year younger than the average NY-Penn League player. I think he's still a sleeper more than a bona fide prospect because there are plate discipline and defensive concerns, but it's nice to see Duran put together a strong summer ... Forgotten prospect Freicer Perez still has not pitched this year. He had six disaster starts (7.20 ERA and 6.08 FIP) with High-A Tampa last season before needing surgery to remove bone spurs from his shoulder, and he has yet to return to game action. That's a bummer. His rehab seems to be moving pretty slow. Perez was one of the top pitching prospects in the organization going into last season. Now he's basically an afterthought after what will amount to two lost seasons. Hopefully he can come back well next year.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Anonymous asks: Given Urshela’s breakout, is Andujar expendable given the right deal? Like Andujar, Garcia and Seigler for Thor?

This has crossed my mind the last few weeks. Gio Urshela is roughly hitting like Miguel Andujar did last year, plus he's much better defensively, and he is under team control through 2023. There are indicators Urshela's offense is legit -- his exit velocity is strong and it's a .350 wOBA against a .350 expected wOBA -- so yeah, he might be the real deal.

Andujar's name popped up in trade rumors over the winter (and long before that as well), which isn't surprising. In a vacuum, cashing Andujar in as a trade chip makes a ton of sense if you believe in Urshela. This isn't a vacuum though, and Andujar's value is way down following shoulder surgery. No team is paying full price to get him at the moment.

MLB adds the 26th roster spot next season, so the Yankees will be able to carry both Urshela and Andujar, and let Andujar rebuild value as a part-time third baseman and part-time designated hitter (and part-time first baseman?) before trading him. It would also give them more time to evaluate Urshela and see whether he actually is legit.

Long story short, yes, Urshela's breakout this year does make Andujar more expendable, though trading him right after shoulder surgery probably isn't a great idea. You're not going to get full value for him right now. Let's see what he looks like post-surgery (and what Urshela looks like with more exposure) before thinking up trade scenarios.

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Peter asks: Assuming Gerrit Cole is a free agent this winter, and given he's a Boras client, it's likely the Yankees are going to sign him right? He's one of (if not the biggest of) Cashman's white whales. He drafted him once. He has repeatedly tried to trade for him. Pitching is always a need. There has to be some change rustling around Hank and Hal's pockets right? 

I wouldn't call it likely. The Yankees passed on huge money long-term contracts this past winter and I think Cole is looking at Max Scherzer money this offseason (seven years, $210M). His floor is Patrick Corbin money (six years, $140M). Here's the side-by-side comparison going into free agency (Cole's contract year isn't over, obviously):

Reminder: Corbin is really good and the Yankees should've at least made an attempt to sign him. Anyway, the head-to-head numbers compare well, but this is Cole's second straight ace-like season (Corbin had one), and he doesn't have Tommy John surgery in his past (Corbin does). I think Cole gets Scherzer money, or thereabouts.

The Yankees have about $40M coming off the books after the season, though part of that will go to Aaron Judge's huge arbitration raise (and, to a lesser extent, Gary Sanchez's), plus the Yankees will have to replace guys like Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner, CC Sabathia, and Dellin Betances. Realistically, not much cash will be freed up this winter.

Unless the Yankees make some salary dump trades (J.A. Happ? Zack Britton?) or go very cheap with their Gregorius, Gardner, et al replacements, they're going to have to blow through the third luxury tax threshold to sign Cole. And maybe they're willing to do that knowing Masahiro Tanaka's and Jacoby Ellsbury's huge contracts expire next winter.

The Yankees absolutely should sign Cole this winter. I wouldn't call it likely though. The Astros are going to try to keep him and I suspect the Rangers are going to make a big run at him to help open their new ballpark, plus the Yankees steered clear of big money long-term deals last winter. Would it really surprise anyone if they did it again?

(Send your mailbag questions to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)