June 28th, 2019: Frazier, Garcia, Hicks, Britton, Tarpley, All-Stars, IFAs, Mailbag

The 2019 Yankees are starting to feel special. I don't just expect them to go out and win every game, I expect them to go out and whoop ass every game. They are very good and very fun. Flawed? For sure, but every team is flawed and the Yankees are less flawed than most. I'm really looking forward to watching the Yankees put a hurtin' on the Red Sox in London this weekend. Gonna be fun. Here are today's thoughts as I try to figure out how DJ LeMahieu didn't hit like .600 in Coors Field.

1. Frazier snub. Shockingly, a Yankee has an injury that is more severe than initially announced. Giancarlo Stanton exited Tuesday's game with what the Yankees called a knee contusion, Aaron Boone said tests came back clean Wednesday morning -- "Tests were good," were his exact words -- then bam, after the game it was announced Stanton was going on the injured list again. Yesterday Brian Cashman told Erik Boland it is "going to be some time" and that "it's safer to look into August" for Stanton's return date. So we went from "he's day-to-day with a bruise" to "he's out until August" in the span of 30 hours or so. Been happening all year. Seemingly every injury is more severe than the Yankees let on. They're Metsing it up big time. Anyway, I don't like that Mike Tauchman was called up to replace Stanton rather than Clint Frazier, and I can't imagine I'm alone. Cashman told George King the Yankees are prioritizing defense, which was always going to be the reason publicly. "Tauchman covers left, center and right in an above-average defensive way. We also knew that (London Stadium) has a lot of foul territory and we felt the corners would be best served by somebody who can go get the ball," said the GM. So I guess that means Tauchman will replace Brett Gardner or Aaron Judge defensively this weekend? The Yankees said they wanted Frazier to play everyday when they sent him down last week. They could easily take whatever playing time they were planning to give Stanton -- the same rest schedule and everything -- and instead give it to Frazier. There will also be at-bats available when Luke Voit or Edwin Encarnacion sit. Playing time is available, for sure. Rather than Frazier, the soon-to-be 36-year-old Gardner will apparently remain an everyday player. I just don't get it. Maybe the call-up snub is punitive? I find it hard to believe the Yankees would willingly play with an inferior roster because Clint had a spat with the media or used the entire 72-hour window to report to Triple-A. (Punishing a player for doing something within their collectively bargained rights is grounds for a grievance and legal action anyway.) Maybe something else happened behind the scenes, but we have no evidence of that. The Yankees have been very willing to give young players chances in recent years. They benched Brian McCann to give Gary Sanchez playing time. They didn't make any moves at the 2015 deadline and instead called up Luis Severino and Greg Bird. Who needs Manny Machado when you have Miguel Andujar? Now the Yankees have a 24-year-old outfielder who hit .283/.333/.513 (117 wRC+) in over 200 big league plate appearances this year, and instead they called up the 28-year-old defensive specialist even though a whole lot of at-bats opened up. I just don't get it. Hard for me to see how Frazier isn't a goner at this point. Stanton's injury creates the perfect opportunity to get Clint back in the lineup and let him continue his development at the MLB level, but nope. It'll be Mike Tauchman and the zero impact he provides. Something's going on here.

2. Deivi's dominance. The Yankees have had more than a few pitching prospects put up dynamite minor league seasons over the years -- 2006 Phil Hughes, 2007 Ian Kennedy, and 2007 Joba Chamberlain remain the gold standard for prospect pitching performances during the RAB era -- but I'm not sure any of them have been as laugh out loud dominant as Deivi Garcia this year. The 20-year-old -- the just turned 20-year-old -- Garcia has a 2.78 ERA (1.71 FIP) with 109 strikeouts in 64.2 innings split between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. It works out to a 40.8% strikeout rate, the highest in the minors (by 1.5 percentage points) among the 389 pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched. Two starts ago he struck out 15 in six scoreless innings in a game that clinched the first half division title (and thus a postseason spot). Last time out he struck out nine in five shutout innings as part of a combined no-hitter. The kid is a video game. A few weeks ago I heard Garcia took quickly to a slider the Yankees introduced this year and Keith Law (subs. req'd) recently confirmed it:

Garcia was 91-96 against Reading with an above-average to plus curveball at 77-80 that was his best pitch for getting into the zone, an above-average mid-80s changeup, and now a new slider at 84-87 with good tilt and some late bite, close to a cutter in shape. His command is still below-average ... (His) delivery gives him ridiculous deception, and hitters cut through his fastball like he's throwing 102 or has huge spin (he doesn't)

Two things now. One, I really hope Garcia pitches in the Futures Game in two weeks so we can get some pitch tracking data. His curveball reportedly checks in with a spin rate north of 3,000 rpm and that is top of the line. I want to see it. And two, the Yankees absolutely should use Garcia out of the big league bullpen as he gets close to his workload limit, whatever it is. He's at 64.2 innings now and his career high is the 74 innings he threw last year. so he might only have another 40-50 innings to go. Whatever the number, there's no sense in wasting this in the minors. Garcia will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season, so he has to be added to the 40-man roster anyway. Add him to the 40-man a few weeks early and let him air it out in relief late in the season. Give Garcia a chance to pull a 2002 Francisco Rodriguez, then continue to develop him as a starting pitcher next year. Pretty simple. The Yankees are a juggernaut and they should get their best and most talented players on the roster for the postseason push (cough Clint Frazier cough), and Deivi has one of the best arms in the system. I see no reason to hold him back. For now, I'll sit back and enjoy following his progress in the minors. Come September (or August?), I want him in pinstripes. "He just finds a way to strike people out. It’s amazing. His stuff, he just misses bats and guys don’t get good swings off of him. I think they probably think they’re getting a good swing off him, and then all of a sudden they don’t hit the ball and it’s like, ‘Whoa. Alright,'" Double-A Trenton manager Patrick Osborn told Greg Johnson.

3. Hicks' grounders. I know he hit that go-ahead three-run home run the other day (I love this angle so much), but Aaron Hicks has kinda stunk since returning from his back injury. He is hitting .202/.307/.361 (79 wRC+) with five homers and by far his highest strikeout rate (25.7%) in several years through 33 games and 140 plate appearances. (Hicks had an 18.4% strikeout rate from 2015-18.) He's a switch-hitter, so we have to look at him from both sides of the plate. Here is 2019 Hicks with 2018 Hicks in parenthesis:

We are dealing with small sample sizes, remember. This season Hicks has put 27 balls in play as a right-handed batter and 58 as a left-handed batter. This is a check up more than an official diagnosis. More than anything, the increase in ground ball rate jumps out to me, especially from the left side. The exit velocity is down as a lefty too, but it's up as a righty, so I don't think there's a physical issue. The ground ball rate being up on both sides of the plate suggests Hicks might be out of whack mechanically. He's rolling over on more pitches than he has the last few years. His plate discipline is still as strong as ever -- Hicks has a 21.1% chase rate this year, nearly identical to his 21.4% career average -- but his whiffs-per-swing rate has jumped from 23.3% last year to 30.6% this year. More empty swings and more grounders leads me to believe his timing is off. As long as he's healthy, I'm confident Hicks will get on track. He did go on a little hot streak a few weeks ago (11-for-40 with three doubles and three homers in 11 games), so it's still in there. I would be more worried if the exit velocity was really down and Hicks was unable to drive the ball. He socked that glorious dinger the other night. Now he just has to get his timing back so he can do that more consistently. Let's check back in a few weeks.

4. Britton's whiffs. Did you know Zack Britton has 26 strikeouts and 18 walks in 34.1 innings this season? That is not good. Not at all. The numbers are even worse over the last six weeks. In his last 14 appearances, an admittedly cherry-picked total, Britton has ten walks and four strikeouts in 14 innings. He's faced 56 batters during that time. Fifty-six batters, four strikeouts. Here are the rate stats during that 14-appearance stretch:

• Strikeout rate: 7.1% (22.8% league average)
• Whiffs-per-swing: 10.3% (25.6% league average)
• Walk rate: 17.9% (8.6% league average)
• Ground ball rate: 80.5% (42.9% league average)

More walks (ten) than swings and misses (eight) in the last 14 games. Britton remains an elite ground ball pitcher, arguably the best in the business, and ground balls are all he has going for him right now. He's not throwing strikes and he can't miss bats. It is working so far. Britton has allowed four runs in those 14 games and three came in one outing (and on one Vlad Guerrero Jr. swing). How much longer can it work? Can a late-inning reliever really compensate for so few strikeouts and so many walks with a top shelf ground ball rate? I suppose it's possible. I can't say I'm not worried though. Too many free baserunners and too many balls in play for my liking. Hopefully Britton can figure something out and rediscover some strikeouts. After all, he had a 26.8% strikeout rate in his first 21 appearances of the season. You needn't look back too far for the last time he missed bats. Right now though, Britton's walk rate is too high and his strikeout rate is too low. If it weren't for that dominant ground ball rate, he would be in an awful lot of trouble.

5. Tarpley's opportunity. Stephen Tarpley did a real nice job in some high-leverage innings earlier this week. Jonathan Holder's meltdown Monday screwed up the bullpen the rest of the week -- seriously, how bad was that outing? -- so Tarpley found himself pitching the seventh inning with a one-run lead Tuesday, and the eighth inning with a one-run lead Wednesday. He went seven up, six down, with the one baserunner coming on an infield single. With Tarpley, it's all about strikes. Even during his breakout 2018 season, he put up a 9.4% walk rate in 69.2 minor league innings. Tarpley has 11 walks in 17.1 career big league innings, including five walks in 7.1 innings this year. Most of those came in April though. Tarpley walked only two batters in ten games and 14.2 innings with Triple-A Scranton before this week's call-up, so maybe that's a sign he's figuring out how to get the ball over the plate. He gets his sinker into the mid-90s and his breaking ball is good enough to keep hitters honest, including right-handed hitters. I'm not sure he'll ever miss enough bats or limit walks enough to be a true high-leverage reliever, someone you want in the game in the biggest spot, but there's enough here to help the Yankees. Holder has been abysmal -- he allowed 21 runs and six homers in his last 16.2 innings before being sent down -- and it's not like Luis Cessa or David Hale will pitch in anything other low leverage innings. Plus Chad Green's availability is compromised by his opener stints. Right now, Tarpley has a golden opportunity in front of him. Pitch well and he could stake claim to a bullpen role the rest of the season. That three up, three strikeout save in Cleveland a few weeks ago combined with those appearances this week figures to earn Tarpley a longer look. This is it, man. This is his chance to show he belongs in the big leagues. Hopefully Tarpley takes it and runs with it.

6. All-Star stuff. The Yankees will have at least two All-Stars this year. Gary Sanchez and DJ LeMahieu won the fan voting and will start at catcher and second base, respectively. Here are all the All-Star starters. The rest of the All-Star Game rosters will be announced Sunday. As I said earlier this week, I expect Aroldis Chapman, Gleyber Torres, and Luke Voit to make it as well. We'll see. The eight Home Run Derby players will be announced early next week -- Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Carlos Santana are reportedly two of the eight -- and I would be surprised if Voit is not among them. He wants to do it and MLB surely wants a Yankee in there for ratings and clicks. It is a perfect fit. George King says MLB had not invited Voit (or Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton) to the Home Run Derby as of Monday, though it's been a few days. I would be very, very surprised if Voit isn't among the eight Home Run Derby participants. He seems like a perfect fit for an event like that. As for the Futures Game, those rosters will be announced at 12pm ET today. MLB shortened the Futures Game to seven innings this year and they're going with an AL vs. NL format rather than USA vs. World. Boo to seven innings, hooray for AL vs. NL. Anyway, my guess is Deivi Garcia will be the only Yankee selected to the Futures Game. Had Estevan Florial been healthy all year, he would've been an obvious selection as well, but he missed so much time. As noted a few points ago, Garcia's numbers are hilariously good this year. He is one of the biggest breakout prospects in baseball and a dude with sub-3.00 ERA and nearly two strikeouts per inning will never look out of place in the Futures Game. Teams can hold players out of the Futures Game -- the Yankees held Luis Severino out of the 2015 Futures Game because they were preparing to call him up in the second half -- though in Garcia's case, I don't think it'll happen. He's not likely to pitch out of the big league rotation in the second half like Severino in 2015. If the Yankees get to send a position player as well, I wonder if it would be Canaan Smith over Florial. Probably not. Voit in the Home Run Derby and Garcia as the only Yankee in the Futures Game is the bet here. 

7. July 2nd preview. The 2019-20 international signing period opens Tuesday. That's a big day. Bigger than the draft, really, since teams can ostensibly bid on any player. According to MLB.com and FanGraphs, the Yankees are expected to sign Dominican outfielders Jasson Dominguez (RAB post) and Jhon Diaz (RAB post), and Dominican third baseman Enger Castellanos. Dominguez is a significant prospect expected to command a bonus in the $5M range, which would be the largest bonus the Yankees have ever given an amateur and the largest bonus any team has given any prospect during the bonus pool era. Here is a snippet of MLB.com's write-up on Dominguez:

At the plate, the teen has a smooth, short and compact swing with excellent bat speed from both sides of the plate. He has shown good bat control and can drive the ball into the gaps and hit for power to all fields. Dominguez squares up the ball and has an advanced approach with a good understanding of the strike zone. The ball jumps off of his bat. He's also a smart baserunner with good speed ... On defense, Dominguez has shown good footwork and soft hands, and he takes good routes. He has a strong arm and his balls carry on line until they reach the destination. He loves the sport and has a reputation for being a "baseball rat" who is always working on a different part of his game.

That sounds a little too good to be true, doesn't it? The FanGraphs write-up is glowing as well -- "(We) don't know of another 16-year-old on the planet with tools this loud and struggle to think of a historic example," they write -- so who am I to argue. The Yankees have a $5.4M bonus pool this year, so they're going to have to trade for pool money to afford everyone (they can max their pool out at $8.6M this year). They've traded fringe prospects (Yefry Ramirez, Matt Wotherspoon) and big leaguers (Adam Warren) for bonus pool money the last few years, and had some thrown into larger trades as well (Luke Voit, Sonny Gray). Expect more of the same. The international market is more competitive than ever, so I assume the asking price for pool money is only going up. This might be the year we see the Yankees trade a top 30 prospect to acquire pool money to sign a future top 30 prospect. Anyway, just putting this on your radar. This summer's international signing period opens next week and the Yankees are expected to sign the consensus top prospect available (Dominguez) plus two other notables (Diaz, Castellanos).

Mailbag Question of the Week

John asks: What does the 40 man roster crunch look like at the end of the season? The last few years it looks like the team had a lot of quality guys that they were at risk to lose at the end of the year so they bundled them together at the deadline. With no August trades this year, who are some minor league guys that might look to be moved at the deadline to not risk losing them or being forced to add them to the 40 man? 

The Yankees currently have 50 -- 50! -- players on the 40-man roster. There are the base 40 players plus ten dudes on the 60-day injured list: Miguel Andujar, Jake Barrett, Dellin Betances, Greg Bird, Jacoby Ellsbury, Ben Heller, Jonathan Loaisiga, Jordan Montgomery, Luis Severino, and Troy Tulowitzki. Goodness.

Based on the roster right now, I see 12 players set to come off the 40-man roster after the season. The dozen:

• Becoming a free agent (8): Betances, Tulowitzki, Brett Gardner, Edwin Encarnacion, Didi Gregorius, Cameron Maybin, Austin Romine, CC Sabathia
• Easily removed from 40-man (4): Barrett, Mike Ford, David Hale, Breyvic Valera

Heller, Luis Cessa, Joe Harvey, Kyle Higashioka, Mike Tauchman, Gio Urshela, and Tyler Wade could all find themselves on the 40-man roster chopping block depending how the rest of the season goes. The Yankees have some 40-man flexibility coming this winter, but remember, they have to replace these guys. Someone has to replace Sabathia, etc.

The fine folks over at Pinstriped Prospects have a list of Yankees prospects who will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season. Here's a quick breakdown:

• Will be protected: OF Estevan Florial, RHP Deivi Garcia, RHP Luis Gil, RHP Mike King
• On the bubble: RHP Rony Garcia, OF Isiah Gilliam, LHP Trevor Lane, RHP Luis Medina, RHP Nick Nelson, RHP Freicer Perez, RHP Miguel Yajure

King hasn't pitched this season following his Spring Training elbow injury and subsequent setback, though he is expected back soon, and he did enough last year to get protected. Florial, Garcia (Deivi, not Rony), and Gil are arguably the three best prospects in the farm system, so of course they'll be added to the 40-man roster when the time comes.

To me, Nelson stands out as a 40-man bubble guy who could be cashed in as a trade chip at the deadline. The fastball/curveball combination is legit, but he walks more batters than you'd like, and chances are he's a reliever long-term. Similar to Dillon Tate last year, Nelson may have the most value as a trade chip if a team buys him as a starter.

Garcia (Rony, not Deivi), Gilliam, Lane, and Yajure are possible secondary pieces in a trade. Medina's control is still nonexistent (18.6% walk rate) and Perez hasn't pitched since shoulder surgery last year, so I don't see them having much trade value or being at risk of being taken in the Rule 5 Draft. Even if they're picked, they'll probably come back.

Nelson stands out as the most notable Rule 5 Draft eligible trade chip. The Yankees not only need big roster help, but they also need international bonus money this summer, so expect to see several of these guys dealt away. The 40-man roster crunch isn't as severe as it was a few years ago. There's still some housecleaning that will have to be done.

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