June 18th, 2019: Encarnacion, Frazier, Maybin, Green, Sabathia, Urshela, Staten Island

Good game last night? Good game last night. Also good timing for Masahiro Tanaka's annual complete game shutout of an AL East rival. He shut out the Red Sox in 2017, the Rays in 2018, and the Rays again in 2019. Love it. Here are today's thoughts.

1. Encarnacion's discipline. Here's my post on the Edwin Encarnacion trade. There is something I want to add to that: Encarnacion is incredibly disciplined at the plate and he does not strike out excessively (yes, I know he went 0-for-4 with a strikeout last night). Power hitters tend to get stereotyped as big strikeout guys. That is not Encarnacion though. Here are some numbers:

• Strikeout rate: 19.1% (17.1% career)
• Walk rate: 14.0% (11.2% career)
• Chase rate: 23.7% (25.8% career)
• Pitches per plate appearance: 4.34 (4.00 career)

There are 157 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title and Encarnacion has the 17th highest walk rate, the 24th lowest chase rate, and he sees the eighth most pitches per plate appearance. Last night he saw 25 pitches in his four trips to the plate. The strikeout rate is not exceptionally low, but it is comfortably below the 22.8% league average. Encarnacion is not some brute masher who swings from the heels all the time. He's a very disciplined hitter and he grinds out at-bats. The Yankees as a team have the ninth highest walk rate (9.6%) in baseball and they see the fourth most pitches (4.01) per plate appearance. This team is already very good at working the count and wearing pitchers down. Granted, getting the pitch count up isn't as beneficial as it was a few years ago now that the game is so bullpen-centric and many starters are not allowed to go through the lineup a third time regardless of pitch count, but still. Working the count is never a bad thing. Encarnacion brings big power to the table and he'll do so without increasing strikeouts or decreasing walks. He'll make this meat grinder of a lineup that much tougher to navigate. “He fits in well. He is a great hitter who has been for a long time and continues to be. I am looking forward to adding him and adding more length to our lineup. Not just a feared hitter but a really good hitter," Aaron Boone told George King following the trade.

2. Frazier's demotion. The Edwin Encarnacion trade led to Clint Frazier and his .283/.330/.513 (118 wRC+) batting line (and terrible defense) being sent to Triple-A Scranton. It is an undeserved demotion based on performance. It's all about the roster crunch. "This is the reality of things. I guess I’m facing reality right now. It’s a tough pill to swallow. It’s never fun, especially with how much I felt I’ve contributed to this team this year," Frazier told Pete Caldera following Sunday's game. On one hand, sending Frazier down before Mike Tauchman looks bad. On the other hand, Frazier was going to be sent down at some point soon anyway given the Encarnacion trade and Giancarlo Stanton's and Aaron Judge's imminent returns to the lineup. What difference does a few days make? The Yankees would rather Frazier play everyday in Triple-A than sit on the bench in the big leagues -- "We want Clint playing all the time. He has a chance to be a great player in this league. He’s already shown that, his potential up here," Aaron Boone told Brendan Kuty following the demotion -- which makes sense. That doesn't make the news any easier to swallow, but it makes sense. Frazier is going to be involved in a billion trade rumors over the next few weeks and, fair or not, the demotion is going to be cited as evidence the Yankees don't see him as part of their future. And, frankly, when you look at how quickly they demoted Frazier this year after sticking with Greg Bird through all his junk play the last few years, I don't think it's unreasonable to say Clint is not exactly the most popular player in the organization. I know this much: Frazier is a big leaguer. He's shown he belongs at this level the last few weeks, and he won't be challenged much in Triple-A. Clint is going to wreck Triple-A pitching with the MLB ball. The risk here is his offense stagnates while he works on defense, which I'm sure the Yankees will claim is a reason behind the demotion. Frazier may be a trade chip, but Brian Cashman is not going to give him away. If the Yankees don't consider Clint part of their future and want to use him as a trade chip to get a starting pitcher, fine. I don't like it but it's out of my hands. If (when?) the Yankees trade Frazier, I trust Cashman & Co. to make what they consider the best baseball trade and not let any organizational grudges get in the way. "There are a lot of inquiries if (the Encarnacion trade) was a chess move to set up an easier lane to trade Frazier. It was a simple roster improvement. (Frazier) was going to Triple-A when our guys got healthy and there was no spot for him. He has impacted us in a positive way, we are happy with his progression," Brian Cashman told Joel Sherman.

3. Keeping Maybin. Cameron Maybin has been everything anyone could've expected since being acquired in an emergency trade and more. And I'm not just saying that because he has a three-game homer streak going. Maybin has done a wonderful job as the fourth outfielder the last few weeks and it is a damn shame he will likely lose his roster spot when Aaron Judge returns in a few days. The Yankees really should find a way to keep him. The easiest way to do it? Ditch the eighth reliever and go back to a seven-man bullpen/four-man bench arrangement. I doubt it'll happen because the Yankees are so paranoid about running out of pitchers (that's not necessarily unfounded given how little length they get from their starters), but that's how they should do it. Keep Maybin, dump Luis Cessa, and use the Nestor Cortes and Jonathan Holder bullpen spots as shuttle spots. Cortes, Holder, Chance Adams, Joe Harvey, and Stephen Tarpley can all be shuttled in and out whenever a fresh arm is needed, plus dumping Cessa (12 runs in 5.1 innings this month) opens a 40-man roster spot for another up-and-down arm. My heart says that's what the Yankees should do. My head says cutting Maybin is the sensible move because they've gotten more out of him than they could've hoped, and because he would have a very limited role as the fifth outfielder. He could pinch-run and start once a week? That's about it. All regular backup outfielder duties will go to Brett Gardner, who I'm guessing will kick butt in a true fourth outfielder role. Perhaps Maybin will slip through waivers and accept an assignment to Triple-A Scranton. That would be cool. I don't think it'll happen though. He'd elect free agency and look for a big league job elsewhere, especially after playing so well in pinstripes. Also, my unofficial math says Maybin needs 44 more days on an MLB roster to reach ten full years of service time. Ten years locks in the full pension. It's a big milestone and I imagine getting there is a priority. He would not get there by going to Triple-A for a few months with a promise of a September 1st call-up. With the way this season has been going, there could be another injury between now and Judge's return that allows the Yankees to keep Maybin. Whenever it happens, it'll be a real bummer Maybin has to be let go. He's been a wonderful fill-in. I look forward to seeing him at the World Series ring ceremony next year. “He’s been a really good player and another guy that has come in here and fit in, jelled, impacted the room, and then his performance speaks for itself between the lines, what he’s brought. The flexibility to play anywhere in the outfield, the speed he brings to the basepaths, the energy he plays the game with and brings to the dugout on a nightly basis. We’ve seen the power come into play the  last few days. He’s been really good for us. Really good," Aaron Boone told Zach Braziller following last night's game.

4. Opener success. Injuries have forced the Yankees to use an opener several times in recent weeks and you know what? It's worked really well. The Yankees have won all five games Chad Green has opened and the overall pitching results have been strong. Here are the numbers for Green and the longmen who followed him in those five games:

That works out to a 4.29 ERA (2.71 FIP) with 31.5% strikeouts and 5.4% walks in 27.2 innings spread across five games. I know a 4.29 ERA doesn't sound all that exciting, but American League starters have a 4.56 ERA this season, and the Yankees have pieced together a 4.29 ERA from what is essentially their eighth starter while Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga are on the injured list. That seems pretty darn good to me. Hopefully the Yankees can get away from using Green as an opener soon. It's worked out so far, but a) openers make for ugly baseball, and b) it creates bullpen usage headaches in the days leading up to (and even after) the opener game. This opener thing not working out could have turned an already messy rotation situation into a full blown crisis. Instead, Green & Co. have helped keep the Yankees afloat. In a division race this tight, these five opener games have been a real pick-me-up. "For me, it doesn’t really matter (when I pitch). It doesn’t matter if I throw the first or the sixth or seventh or fifth. It’s all kind of the  same," Green told Jay Cohen over the weekend about being used as an opener.

5. Green's rebound. One more point on Chad Green, who is starting to look like the old Chad Green. That point: Chad Green is starting to look like the old Chad Green. I'm talking myself into circles here. Green had that brilliant seven-batter, six-strikeout open against the White Sox over the weekend, but he had been pitching well for a while before that, allowing only two runs in his previous eight appearances and 9.1 innings. Here are the numbers before and after his Triple-A demotion:

Also, Green looks quite a bit more confident on the mound right now than he did in April. I mean, how could he not? He was getting smashed earlier this year. Now he's having more success and playing an important role for the team, albeit in a unique role given his opener stints. Jonathan Holder is getting blasted each time out -- Holder has allowed 13 runs in his last 14.2 innings but is apparently immune from being sent to Triple-A -- so it would be nice to be able to slot Green back into a true relief role to help out the high-leverage guys. For now, he's stuck filling in as an opener with a few later inning appearances mixed in. Not ideal, but that's where the roster is at right now. The important thing is Green is starting to look more like the 2017-18 version of himself, and that's good news.

6. Sabathia's struggles. Since his reinvention, CC Sabathia has had a four-start stretch right around this time of year where he looks done. Like done done. Here are the 2017 and 2018 stretches. Sabathia has a 6.97 ERA in his last four starts and opponents have hit .353/.398/.671 against him. In his first seven starts, he had a 2.97 ERA and held hitters to a .213/.291/.441 batting line. Sabathia chalked up his recent poor performances to a misbehaving cutter. Here's what he told George King and Pete Caldera following last week's start against the White Sox: 

“(The cutter) just wasn’t there. It wasn’t moving a lot. I have to figure something out between (Friday night) and Wednesday ... I feel like I just need to play with the ball in my hand, just get a good grip again. My grip feels off, everything about it feels off. When my grip goes off, everything goes off. I will work in between starts to make sure that is where it needs to be."

Opponents are hitting .286 with a .548 SLG and an 87.2 mph average exit velocity against Sabathia's cutter this year. That is up quite a bit from last year (.237 AVG; .378 SLG; 82.7 mph) and the year before (.239 AVG; .408 SLG; 82.1 mph). In fact, Sabathia is giving up more hard contact in general this season. He has been consistently among the league leaders in weak contact allowed since his reinvention. Some quick numbers:

2018 exit velocity: 84.4 mph (98th percentile)
2019 exit velocity: 86.6 mph (78th percentile)

2018 hard-hit rate: 26.6% (97th percentile)
2019 hard-hit rate: 33.1% (74th percentile)

From among the best in baseball to merely above average (overall, not in the last few starts, obviously). Watching his starts, it seems Sabathia gets burned every time he leaves a cutter out over the plate to a right-handed batter. Statcast says Sabathia has thrown 25.2% of his cutters to righties over the heart of the plate this season, and opponents are hitting .351 with a .784 SLG on those pitches. I thought it would've been worse! The last two years, it was 21.4% with a .282 AVG and .436 SLG. The numbers match the eye test. Sabathia is leaving a few more cutters out over the plate to righties and he is paying dearly. Every mistake is getting hammered. With each passing year, it is more likely Sabathia's ugly May-slash-June four-start stretch is truly the beginning of the end. In this case the problem is obvious (the cutter stinks) and Sabathia is aware of it, and working to fix it. Folks have been declaring this dude toast since 2013. He goes through a similar stretch each year and, given his history, Sabathia deserves a chance to adjust and self-correct. Besides, it's not like the Yankees have any other rotation options anyway.

7. Urshela's struggles. It seems the clock has struck midnight on Gio Urshela. I know he had a good game Sunday against the White Sox, but, over the last 30 days, Urshela is hitting .247/.304/.407 (86 wRC+). That his overall season batting line still sits at .306/.358/.459 (117 wRC+) is a testament to how good he was earlier this year. He really saved the Yankees those few weeks. Even with his contact skills (15.2% strikeout rate), Urshela does not have the exit velocity (90.7 mph) to sustain the near .400 BABIP he had a few weeks ago. Pretty much no one does. A graph:

Fortunately, Didi Gregorius is back -- Sir Didi already has more than twice as many plate appearances as Troy Tulowitzki, so that move really worked out -- and the Yankees have quite a bit of infield depth at the moment. Urshela, Gregorius, DJ LeMahieu, and Gleyber Torres give Aaron Boone four players to rotate through the three non-first base infield positions -- the Edwin Encarnacion trade means LeMahieu no longer has to back up Luke Voit at first base -- plus Thairo Estrada is sitting in Triple-A as depth. That's as strong as the infield has been at any point this season. Given everything we know about these players, it seems clear to me Urshela should be on the short end of the playing time stick. Gregorius has been so good that it's impossible to tell he missed so much time, Gleyber is a rock star, and LeMahieu has been too good on both sides of the ball to take out of the lineup. As well as he played earlier this year -- and he was great -- Urshela should be on the bench more often than not going forward. Start LeMahieu at third base and give Gio maybe three starts a week with the other guys getting one day off apiece, which is still a decent amount of playing time. Should Urshela go on another one of his BABIP hot streaks, great, playing time can be adjusted when that happens. For now, given Gio's performance the last month and what everyone else brings to the table, he should find himself on the bench more than everyone else as part of this infield rotation. (For what it's worth, Urshela has started only two of the last five games.)

8. Staten Island Yankees. Short Season Staten Island opened their season late last week and, weirdly, their Opening Day roster did not include a single 2019 draftee. Huh. Usually there's a few. Well, whatever. Not a big deal. The best prospect on Staten Island's roster is, clearly, outfielder Everson Pereira. The just turned 18-year-old is 2-for-13 (.154) through three games. Pereira is the youngest player on the team by 14 months and he is nearly three full years younger than the average NY-Penn League player. A player this age is usually still in rookie ball. This summer will be a really good test for Pereira, who MLB.com says "couples all-around talent with advanced instincts." Shortstop Oswald Peraza is the second best prospect on Staten Island's roster. Peraza turned 19 over the weekend and he is 3-for-11 (.273) through three games. "Peraza showed a smooth, sound swing and impressed scouts again with his work in Extended Spring Training. He’s got an excellent chance to stick up the middle and shoot line drives from gap to gap," wrote Baseball America in their NYPL preview. Ezequiel Duran remains an exit velocity darling, though there's not much else there. He's interesting enough. Staten Island's roster thins out a bit after Pereira and Peraza, though I have to believe several 2019 draftees, including second rounder T.J. Sikkema and fourth rounder Jake Sanford, will join Staten Island soon enough. Right now, it's all about following Pereira and Peraza, and finding out which pitching prospects show up with an extra 3-4 mph on their fastball after going through the organization's velocity building program in Extended Spring Training. Now that I have more free time, I'm looking forward to catching a few games in Staten Island (and Brooklyn) this year. I want to get some eyes on Pereira. (The rookie Pulaski Yankees begin play today, but their roster has not been released at the time of this writing. The rookie Gulf Coast League begins play next week.)

9. Competitive imbalance. Going to close up with a general baseball thought. It is horrible for baseball that three teams (Astros, Dodgers, Twins) have at least 8.5-game leads in their division in the middle of June. Those leads can be erased, especially with this much time left in the season, but casual fans are going to look at the standings and assume those races are over. That's bad. Only three of the six division races are still interesting. Also, five American League teams (Blue Jays, Mariners, Orioles, Royals, Tigers) are already at least ten games back of a postseason spot. One-third of the league is pretty much out of the race and the All-Star break is still three weeks away. What a shame. Thirteen teams are down more than 1,000 fans per game this season (including the Yankees, I should note) and that's after baseball collectively lost over 1,200 fans per game last year. Never before has revenue been less dependent on attendance. These days teams make their money through television deals and advertising, mostly. That's why so many teams are willing to go into a deep rebuild. Ownership still makes money even if fans don't show up. Baseball has historically struggled to cultivate fans, especially younger fans, and the attendance numbers should worry the league, even as revenues continue to climb. Baseball is the entertainment business, and when you see so many irrelevant teams playing meaningless games each night (in June!), there is not enough entertaining going on. I just wish someone at MLB's offices on Park Avenue seemed to care.

(Remember to send mailbag questions to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)