Thoughts after the Yankees trade for Edwin Encarnacion

The next post is still three days away, but the Yankees just agreed to a fairly significant trade, so you're getting a bonus weekend post. According to multiple reports, the Yankees are set to acquire slugger Edwin Encarnacion from the Mariners. Righty Juan Then is heading the other way. The two teams are said to be splitting the $15M or so remaining on his contract. (That includes the $5M buyout on his $20M option for next year.) The trade is not official yet but will be soon enough. Let's get to the thoughts.

(UPDATE: The Yankees officially announced the trade following Saturday's win. It is as reported: Encarnacion and cash considerations for Then.)

1. Why? The first question that popped in everyone's mind. The answer is, well, why not? This kinda reminds me of the Chris Carter signing, only Encarnacion is approximately a zillion times better than Chris Carter. The Yankees saw a chance to strengthen the roster even if the pieces didn't fit perfectly, so they did it. Encarnacion is currently hitting .241/.356/.531 (139 wRC+) with an American League best 21 home runs and the Yankees didn't give up much to get him. No, he's not a pitcher, but the Yankees will get one (or two) of those soon enough. The offense, even through all the injuries, has been a strength, and there's nothing wrong with adding to a strength. Encarnacion makes the lineup that much deeper and more fearsome, and the extra righty power will come in handy against all those lefty AL East starters (Chris Sale, David Price, Eduardo Rodriguez, Blake Snell, the sneaky good John Means, etc.). Plus, with the way things have been going this season, the Yankees are bound to lose another player(s) to injury at some point. They're an Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton setback, or a Luke Voit pulled hamstring, away from Encarnacion going from luxury to necessity. I mentioned Encarnacion as a possible trade target last week, but I did not expect the Yankees to add him with Judge and Stanton so close to returning. The more good players, the better. The Yankees have to out-slug their own pitching staff these days and Encarnacion can help them do that. Then once they add pitching, forget it. (It'll be fun to watch Encarnacion hit home runs for the Yankees instead of against the Yankees for once.)

2. Frazier trade. I do not believe the Yankees added Encarnacion so they could turn around and trade Clint Frazier for a pitcher. Adding Encarnacion does make it a little easier to trade Frazier though. The Yankees no longer have to worry about replacing his bat because it's been preemptively replaced (preplaced?). Clint went into tonight's game hitting .291/.340/.533 (126 wRC+) on the year. The Yankees have spoiled us lately with Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, and Miguel Andujar. How long did we all wait for the Yankees to produce a 24-year-old outfielder who could hit like Clint? A long time, man. A very long time. I hope they keep Frazier as part of a four-headed outfield monster going forward. Pitchers are risky and I want the Yankees to build around bats and spend money to acquire arms. Money is a renewable resource for this franchise. There's only one Clint Frazier though. The Yankees do not see it that way, however, based on their spending habits. They have three outfielders signed/under control long-term, so trading Frazier for an arm would be dealing from a position of depth to address a position of need. It makes sense. It does. I don't like it -- there is not a single pitcher among the most rumored trade candidates (Madison Bumgarner, Mike Minor, Marcus Stroman, etc.) that I would give up Clint to acquire -- but it is a distinct possibility. The Encarnacion trade shows the Yankees value a deep and high-powered offense, so I'm hopeful that means they're going to keep Frazier and build as devastating a lineup as possible. That said, if push comes to shove, moving Clint in a deal for a pitcher will be much easier now than it would've been without Encarnacion.

3. What about the money? The Yankees will end up taking on about $7.5M in real money to acquire Encarnacion. His luxury tax hit will be in the $3M to $3.5M range, report Jon Heyman and Bob Nightengale, and that's much easier to swallow. The luxury tax hit is so low because the $5M buyout on next year's option was spread across the contract's three guaranteed years for luxury tax purposes, and also because the Rays are paying part of Encarnacion's salary this year, which lowers the bill. Tampa sent $5M to the Mariners as part of the three-team trade that sent Encarnacion to Seattle, Carlos Santana to the Indians, and Yandy Diaz to Tampa over the winter. The Rays will pay Encarnacion a little something so he can help the Yankees try to win the AL East. Neat. Cot's says the Yankees have about $16M to spend under the $246M third luxury tax tier, though that's without Encarnacion. With him, it's more like $12.5M in wiggle room. Luxury tax hits for in-season pickups are pro-rated, so that $12.5M means the Yankees can take on $22M in full season salary right now, if they makes sense. They can afford one guy with a full season $17.5M salary (like Corey Kluber) or two guys combining to make $19.4M on the season (like Madison Bumgarner at $12M and Marcus Stroman at $7.4M) without going over the final luxury tax threshold. Some of that $12.5M has to be set aside from injury and September call-ups, but it's a good amount of wiggle room for in-season additions. Plus the Yankees could always give up a better prospect to get the other team to eat money to make this all work. They've done that a few times in recent years. Point is, the financial impact of this trade is very different in the real world ($7.5M) than it is in the luxury tax world ($3M to $3.5M), Given the way they've behaved the last few years, the luxury tax world is the important one.

4. Keep him away from rivals. With the trade, the Yankees have successfully kept Encarnacion away from the AL East rival Rays and Red Sox. I suspect the Yankees considered that more of a fringe benefit rather than used it as primary motivation, but it is part of the equation. Boston's first basemen are hitting .227/.295/.454 (88 wRC+) this year and both Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce are on the injured list. They had an obvious opening for Encarnacion. The Rays rotate guys through their DH spot and Ji-Man Choi is a DH playing first base. They could've made Encarnacion work in their lineup. Now he's not an option. Again, I don't think keeping Encarnacion away from the Red Sox and Rays was a major factor in the decision to make the trade. There is real world impact though. The Mariners are unabashedly selling and Encarnacion was a legitimate middle of the order bat who was available for salary relief and an okay prospect. Any team that needed a bat was going to look there first. The Yankees don't have to sweat Encarnacion going to the Rays or Red Sox now. Every little bit helps.

5. How's the roster work? In the coming days the Yankees will add Encarnacion, Stanton, and Judge to their lineup. First of all: lol. Secondly, how do they all fit? My guess is Mike Tauchman goes down for Encarnacion whenever he reports (with a day game Sunday and the Mariners out in Oakland, I suspect he'll meet the team in New York on Monday rather than for the series finale in Chicago), then Cameron Maybin is designated for assignment when Stanton returns on Tuesday, and Clint Frazier goes to Triple-A when Judge returns. I can't imagine the Yankees cutting Gio Urshela and carrying two outfielders (Frazier and Brett Gardner) plus the backup catcher on their three-man bench. Frazier is a big leaguer. He belongs in the Bronx. Barring an injury between now and Judge's return -- given how this season has gone thus far, would you be surprised if another injury clears up the logjam between now and then? -- I just don't see another way to make it work. It stinks, but what else could the Yankees do? Let's let Judge get through his rehab before worrying about the roster crunch. There's still some time to sort this out. Here's a possible lineup to make you feel better:

1. 3B DJ LeMahieu
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. LF Giancarlo Stanton
4. C Gary Sanchez
5. DH Edwin Encarnacion
6. 1B Luke Voit
7. SS Didi Gregorius
8. CF Aaron Hicks
9. 2B Gleyber Torres

That is bonkers. Seriously, with an offense that deep, the Yankees should just put Judge at leadoff and get him as many at-bats as possible. There is more than enough power throughout the lineup to compensate. Hopefully this actually happens at some point and injuries don't disrupt things again.

6. Trading Then. We need to take a second to appreciate the sequence of events here. The Yankees originally acquired Juan Then (and JP Sears) from the Mariners in the Nick Rumbelow trade in November 2017. The Mariners traded Then to get Rumbelow and two years later they traded EDWIN ENCARNACION to get Then back. Wild. (To make matters worse, the Mariners released Rumbelow earlier this week. Ouch.) Anyway, I did not have Then in my 2019 Preseason Top 30 Prospects. MLB.com ranked him as the 27th best prospect in the system before the trade though, and says he "could make it as a No. 4 or 5 starter because he keeps his pitch counts down and limits his mistakes." The Yankees are loaded with pitching prospects in the lower minors and trading a 19-year-old rookie ball kid for big league help is a total no-brainer, especially when he only projects to be a mid-rotation arm. I've written this a few times in recent months: The Yankees should be all about trading low minors arms for MLB help right now. Pitching prospects have a high attrition rate (the further away from the big leagues, the more likely they bust) and a dozen new kids who throw 95+ mph seem to pop up in the system every year. The Yankees have been excellent at knowing which prospects to keep and which prospects to trade the last few years -- the last prospect who burned them is Caleb Smith, of all players -- and a dude like Then should never stand in the way of adding to the big league roster when you're a World Series contender.