June 11th, 2019: Judge, Betances, Holder, Stroman, Kluber, Morales, Home Run Derby, Florial, 2019 Draft

The Yankees and Mets were rained out last night and the Yankees handled it about as poorly as possible. The rain was in the forecast for days, yet they opened the gates on time and strung fans along until announcing the postponement at 6:45pm ET. Plus the makeup game will be played as part of a doubleheader today, when many fans who had tickets to last night's game won't be able to make it. Awful. (The Yankees and Mets both have an off-day Wednesday, but there's another scheduled event at Yankee Stadium.) It would be nice if MLB teams could treat fans with respect rather than act like they're an inconvenience. So frustrating. Anyway, here is today's post.

1. Judge's rehab. Aaron Boone dropped some surprisingly good injury news yesterday. Aaron Judge could "be ready to compete in (rehab) games this weekend," Boone told Coley Harvey. He has gradually increased his hitting work the last two or three weeks -- he's been hitting against the high velocity pitching machine the last few days -- and he's getting close to taking the next step. Judge was placed on the injured list on April 20th and the Yankees described it as a "significant" oblique strain. And, considering he will miss at least two months, that is significant. When I heard significant though, I thought it would be after the All-Star break, maybe even August. Oblique injuries can linger and be really difficult. Now it sounds like there's a chance Judge will be back within two weeks or so. That would be amazing and much sooner than I expected. Also, Giancarlo Stanton starts a rehab assignment tonight and could be back next week. Getting him and Judge back at roughly the same time, and with a few weeks to spare before the All-Star break? Oh man, that would be amazing. I'm trying not to get my hopes up because there have been so many setbacks this year, but it's tough. The replacement guys have done well offensively -- the Yankees are averaging 5.30 runs per game this year, fourth most in baseball -- but Judge and Stanton bring that fearsome power element the Yankees currently lack aside from Gary Sanchez (and I guess Luke Voit). The Yankees have played well without Judge and Stanton these last few weeks and it has been a pleasant surprise. Do not confuse "they've played well" with "they will continue to play well" though. The Yankees are much more likely to continue this pace going forward with the two MVP caliber hitters in their lineup. I knew Judge started swinging a bat two weeks ago. I still did not expect to hear he could begin a rehab assignment this weekend. Fingers crossed. Hopefully it goes well and he (and Stanton) is back before the end of the month.

2. Dellin's setback. The Dellin Betances setback is troubling. His latest setback, I should say, because he already had a setback in April. Betances felt renewed soreness in his shoulder/lat area after facing hitters last week and he's going for an MRI today. Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch yesterday that Dellin is "still a little bit sore," and that worries me. This is an ongoing shoulder issue that has lingered months now, not weeks. For the Yankees, the injury stinks because Betances is awesome and the more awesome relievers they have, the better, especially given how much they rely on their high-leverage guys. For Betances, this is just awful. The guy spent eight years in the minors, answered the bell for the Yankees in every situation (and for however many innings) the last five years, the team raked him over the coals in arbitration, and now his contract year is shot. What is his free agent contract upside now? A one-year "prove yourself" deal? I get that it's hard to feel bad for millionaires, but Betances is a homegrown Yankee through and through, and he's made $16M through his age 31 season. That's with four All-Star Game selections and (still) way more strikeouts than any other reliever since 2014.  He has not been paid anything close to commensurate with his on-field value. Dellin didn't get that big baseball payday and now he may never get it given this injury and his age. It sucks. For the sake of the 2019 Yankees, I hope this setback is nothing and Betances can come back soon, and pitch well. For Dellin's sake, I hope this setback is nothing and he can still cash in as a free agent. If he has to settle for a one-year "prove yourself" contract, I hope the Yankees are the team that gives it to him. Betances should be a forever Yankee.

3. Holder's struggles. Jonathan Holder this season is a pretty good reminder that Adam Warren was damn good at his job. That jack of all trades reliever job is thankless. When you do well, no one seems to notice. When you struggle, everyone wants you on the bus to Scranton. Holder essentially stepped into Warren's role this year and he has a 4.88 ERA (3.62 FIP) with the same number of home runs allowed as last season in 34.2 fewer innings. He's allowed a run in 11 of his 26 appearances, including four of his last eight. Remember last year, when Holder returned from Triple-A and completely shelved his curveball and cutter, and went with his slider and changeup? I wrote about it a bunch at RAB. Holder came out of the gate this year using the same pitch mix and why wouldn't he? That adjustment he made last season worked like a charm. Holder recently scrapped his slider and brought back his cutter ...

... though I suppose that could be a pitch classification issue. The algorithm might be confusing sliders for cutters (or vice versa). I don't think that is the case though. Holder has talked this year about having trouble locating his fastball, especially up in the zone, but this year's fastball results (.206 AVG and .365 SLG) aren't that much worst than last year's (.213 AVG and .323 SLG). The slider has been the real problem:

• 2018: .134 AVG and .194 SLG
• 2019: .280 AVG and .400 SLG

Maybe sustaining last year's slider results was impossible. A decline this big though? That is drastic, so, if Holder truly has scrapped the slider in favor of the cutter like the graph above suggests, it would make sense. Hopefully it works at some point, because it's not right now. Holder's been roughed up lately and it's a problem. He has an important (yet thankless) role as the top non-high-leverage reliever. He's tasked with filling in when the high-leverage guys are unavailable and (more often) keeping the game close when the Yankees are trailing. Warren did that so well the last few years. Holder is struggling with it now, and it's a problem because the Yankees don't get length from their starters and they rely on their bullpen heavily. A weak link in the chain can derail a game quickly.

4. Pitching targets. Now that the Yankees have lost out on Dallas Keuchel, they'll have to upgrade their pitching via trades. Madison Bumgarner is the big name out there. We all know that. The Rangers are surprisingly competitive this year, so Mike Minor probably isn't a realistic target. Ken Davidoff reports the Yankees have spoken to the Blue Jays about Marcus Stroman (did you know he's short and went to Duke?), which makes sense. He's pretty good, he's AL East battle-tested, and he'll remain under team control next year as an arbitration-eligible player. Personally, I'm not sure what to think about Stroman. I feel like the hype outweighs the results, though he also has the tools to be a top notch big league starter. The Yankees love their spin rate/strikeout guys and Stroman is more of a sinker/ground ball guy. (The spin rates on his four-seamer and slider are really good, I should note.) In a vacuum, I would take Stroman the rest of the season over Bumgarner. It's not a vacuum though. Prospect cost matters. Another name to keep in mind: Corey Kluber. The Indians, despite taking two of three from the Yankees over the weekend, are mediocre as hell and currently looking at the second Wild Card spot as their best case scenario. Their financial situation is apparently so dire that they had to cut payroll roughly $15M over the winter despite back-to-back-to-back AL Central titles and a trip to the World Series three years ago. Kluber is currently on the injured list with a broken forearm (he was hit by a line drive) and he might not return until after the (single) July 31st trade deadline. That complicates things. Would the Indians trade him when his value is down to save the remainder of his $17M salary this year, and not have to make a decision about his $17.5M option for next year? Even before he got hurt, Kluber's strikeout and walk rates were slipping, and he was much more hittable. So, in addition to being hurt, he hasn't pitched well this year. Would the Indians trade him for pennies on the dollar? Would the Yankees take him sign unseen before the deadline? I don't know, but I am intrigued. Bumgarner and Stroman are the big names. I'm holding out hope Texas crashes and Minor hits the market. Kluber on a post-injury discount would be awfully interesting. The trade deadline is seven weeks and one day away and teams can't fall back on August trade waivers now. It is July 31st or never. Hopefully some starters shake loose between now and then. Assuming Minor will not be available, Stroman stands out as the best option to me, though the potential asking price for Kluber may be took good to pass up.

5. Morales' struggles. Folks, I'm not sure how much more Kendrys Morales I can take. I get that he's probably a goner as soon as Giancarlo Stanton (or Aaron Judge) returns, but I don't think I can wait that long. Given the state of the roster at the time, Morales was a worthwhile roll of the dice. Now, after 70 plate appearances with a .140/.300/.193 (47 wRC+) batting line and a 70.6% ground ball rate -- 70.6%! -- with the Yankees, I give up. The exit velocity (91.3 mph) looks pretty, but exit velocity doesn't really matter when a guy with no speed has hit 15 balls in the air in his 70 plate appearances. Twelve walks and six strikeouts is nice too, but it takes three hits to score him after a walk. "When he first got here, you look at the at-bats, there are a lot of hard outs. He is making contact, the walk’s been in play. Some of his contact of late when he has barreled it up, has been on the ground. Just trying to get him rolling, especially how we’re set up right now, his switch-hitting presence, if he can get it going, can really play for us," Aaron Boone told Coley Harvey when asked why Morales is playing so much over the weekend. Morales seems like a good dude and, given his reputation, I'm sure he's helped young guys like Gleyber Torres and Clint Frazier a bunch during his short time in pinstripes. The man is currently a DH without the H part though. With Didi Gregorius back, the Yankees have five infielders for four infield spots (Gregorius, Torres, DJ LeMahieu, Gio Urshela, Luke Voit) and four outfielders for three outfield spots (Frazier, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Cameron Maybin*). They can pick a different DH from that group each day and improve themselves offensively and, in some cases, defensively as well. Sometimes you pick up a guy with good exit velocity numbers and you wind up with Luke Voit. Other times you wind up with a Kendrys Morales. Them's the breaks. When the Yankees had all those dudes on the injured list, adding Morales and giving him a shot made sense. Now that Frazier's back and Sir Didi's back, it's time to give those at-bats to someone else. Morales isn't working out. No mas.

* Maybin has been great with the Yankees, though he strikes me as exactly the kinda guy who excels as a part-timer and gets exposed once he's pushed into everyday duty. We have nearly 4,000 big league plate appearances telling us Maybin is not really as good as he's been with the Yankees. He may be best used in moderation.

6. Home Run Derby. I've talked a little about Yankees who could wind up in the All-Star Game the last few weeks. (Here's the first voting update.) The Yankees could also have a player(s) in the Home Run Derby. You know MLB wants a Yankee in the Home Run Derby. That equals ratings and internet clicks and all that. Even if Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton return this month, I have to think both would pass on the Home Run Derby given their injuries. Heck, Judge has already said he's skipping it, and Stanton has been mostly indifferent about it the last two years. Gary Sanchez? He's been in it once already (2017) and he certainly wouldn't be out of place in the event this year. As much as I love watching Gary sock dingers, I selfishly hope he skips the event given his catching workload and the whole offseason shoulder surgery thing. Luke Voit though? I think that dude would be a blast in the Home Run Derby. He wants to do it too. "I'm in. Let's go. I wanna play. Hell yeah," he told Laura Albanese yesterday when asked about possibly being invited to the Home Run Derby. Voit even has his pitcher picked out, he told Bryan Hoch. (I wonder which Oriole it is nyuck nyuck nyuck.) Yankees fans always travel well. Put Voit in the Home Run Derby and he's going to mash taters to a chorus of "LUUUUKE" chants, even in Cleveland. It would be awesome. MLB has had trouble getting star players to the Home Run Derby over the years, so much so that they raised the prize money to $1M in hopes of luring bigger names. (If MLB is offering more money, you know they're desperate for star power.) Voit may not qualify as a star or a big name, but he is Yankee, and the Yankees are good for business. A Yankee actually wants to participate in the Home Run Derby this year and I can't imagine MLB would pass up the opportunity to get the pinstripes involved. Bet on Voit getting an invite to the Home Run Derby. (Participants are usually announced the week before the All-Star Game.)

7. Florial's return. Estevan Florial, the top prospect in the organization, returned to game action last week after breaking his wrist (in two places) crashing into the outfield wall in Spring Training. He's been great too: .333/.448/.542 (195 wRC+) with two doubles, a homer, three steals in three attempts, five walks, and five strikeouts in seven games with High-A Tampa. Florial played all last season with Tampa and was good, not great (.255/.354/.361 and 110 wRC+), and my hunch is the Yankees want to get him to Double-A Trenton pretty soon. The High-A Florida State League All-Star Game is this weekend. Florial wasn't picked for the All-Star Game because he missed so much time, but maybe he'll head to Trenton while all the other Florida State League kids enjoy their All-Star break? If not this weekend, then maybe after the Futures Game next month? I guess it's possible Florial will participate in the Futures Game. I don't think it's likely though. He missed so much time with the injury and there is never a shortage of outfield prospects. I have to think Deivi Garcia is the top choice to represent the Yankees at the Futures Game and I would be totally cool with that. He's been really good this year (3.00 ERA and 1.98 ERA with a 39.1% strikeout rate) and is the shiny new toy in the farm system. Anyway, back to Florial. He's healthy and he's been very good in the week since his return, and I think a move up to Double-A Trenton will happen pretty soon. He might've started the season with the Thunder had he not gotten hurt. It's good Florial is healthy because now he can resume working on those pitch recognition issues and, like it or not, the Yankees can resume showcasing him leading up to the trade deadline. With two long-term contracts (Aaron Hicks and Giancarlo Stanton) and a homegrown star (Aaron Judge) in the big league outfield, a boom-or-bust prospect can't be made unavailable in trade talks, even when he's the top prospect in the organization. That goes double when the Yankees are trying to win a World Series. I'm not saying the Yankees should give him away. Just that they have to be willing to part with him in the right deal, and I am certain Brian Cashman would. For now, Florial is back and healthy, and he's mashing. That's wonderful news.

8. Draft signings. Once upon a time weeks and weeks would pass before the top draft picks signed each year. They'd go right up to the signing deadline (July 12th this year) and try to squeeze every last dollar out of the team, as they should. That doesn't happen these days. Since the draft pools were put in place, teams lock down asking prices or even work out agreements before the draft to make sure their numbers work. They don't wing it and hope the bonus pool works out later. As such, the Yankees have already agreed to deals with most of their top picks. Here are the top ten rounds, the rounds tied to the bonus pools, via MLB.com's Draft Tracker and various other reports:

Couple things here. One, I'm surprised Volpe signed so cheap, relatively speaking. His overslot bonus is exactly 25th overall pick money (the Yankees took him with the 30th pick). Given the Vanderbilt commitment, which is traditionally very tough to break, I thought he was looking at $3M or more. Huh. “It was the hardest decision of my life, to pass up the college experience and being with (Vanderbilt coach Tim Corbin) and being part of a team that could win a national championship. But the opportunity to play for the New York Yankees, who I’ve dreamed about playing for my entire life, and to put everything, all my concentration, apply as much pressure as I possibly could to pursue my goal, that’s what set it over the edge for me," Volpe told Dan Martin yesterday. Two, LSU and East Carolina were eliminated from the NCAA Division I postseason this past weekend, so Smith and Agnos just stopped playing. They'll sign soon enough. Three, the Yankees did not go with cheap college seniors in rounds 6-10 or 7-10 or whatever. The only senior they selected in the top ten rounds is Greene, which you can tell from his bonus. That means no other significant bonus pool savings picks. The Yankees played it pretty straight this year. Four, you can officially forget about 20th rounder Jack Leiter. There isn't nearly enough bonus pool money to make it work and I can't see a) Leiter taking that big a discount, or b) the Yankees exceeding the bonus pool so much that they forfeit next year's first rounder. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but if you were holding out hope for Leiter, forget it. And five, if the Yankees sign Smith and Agnos to straight slot deals, they'll have $177,610 remaining under the bonus pool with the 4.9% overage. (Exceed your pool by 5% or more and you have to give up next year's pick. The Yankees have exceeded their pool roughly 4.9% each of the last few years and paid the tax, and I assume they'll do it again.) That leaves a little wiggle room for rounds 11-40. I'm hoping the Yankees can sign Nevada LHP Ryan Anderson (12th round) and Cal State Bakersfield LHP Edgar Barclay (15th round), who I wrote about briefly last week. Those are two late rounders with some upside, and if the Yankees have to dip into that leftover $177,610 to get it done, so be it.

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